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000
FXAK69 PAFG 030057 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
457 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

UPDATED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE MID
TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE.

CURRENTLY A VERY WINTER LIKE 510 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA REMAINS PARKED
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST NORTHWEST OF BARROW. A POWERFUL
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW PAST DEMARCATION POINT AND THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MCKENZIE DELTA AND NORTHERN YUKON AND THEN
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM OLD CROW TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO
MCGRATH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
THIS EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED
FOR RAIN GENERALLY BELOW 3000 FEET. RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGED TO SNOW
THIS MORNING IN DENALI PARK WITH 5 INCHES REPORTED OVER HIGHER
PASSES. HEAVY SNOW ALSO REPORTED THROUGH ATIGUN PASS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO UNDER 500 FEET
IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 1500 FEET NEAR FAIRBANKS
TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER BASIN WITH REPORTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LITTLE CHENA RIVER. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER WILL BE
DROPPED HOWEVER WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO HEADLINES IN THE TANANA VALLEY BASIN AS
ADDITIONAL RAIN REPORTS FILTER IN.

NEXT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY ROTATING ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. 30 KT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGH SURF HEADLINES ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST AS WINDS
BUILD TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ZONE 206 AS
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR
MASS SWEEP OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS THE NEXT POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE RACES EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.

A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND IS LOST AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A PASC TO PAFM TO PAOM LINE FRIDAY EVENING
AND ALONG A PARC TO PFYU TO PAMC LINE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS DISPLAY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONE S 201 AND 202. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL ZONES AS
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA AND A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LITTLE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER...HOWEVER A
HYDRO STATEMENT COVERING HIGH WATER LEVELS IS IN THE WORKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ206.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LITTLE CHENA

&&

$$

CCC SEP 14


  [top]

000
FXAK67 PAJK 022331
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT AND
COVERS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND THE EFFECTS CAN BE SEEN IN
BOTH RADAR DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS. CURRENTLY NO RAIN IS FALLING OVER LAND SITES, BUT
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN
YAKUTAT BY EARLY EVENING. A THIN BUT WELL DEFINED BAND OF PRECIP
ON THE RADAR OFF THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST SHOULD ARRIVE OVER LAND
AROUND THE SAME TIME, BUT MAY FALL AS VIRGA WITHOUT REGISTERING
AT THE SURFACE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE LOWERS LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN STABLE. GIVEN THAT, AM EXPECTING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST, BUT CANNOT RULE THIS OUT BASED ON LAST NIGHT. CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK PRESWURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL ARE AT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SKAGWAY WINDS
HAVE BEEN THE UPPER TEENS WITH GUSTS TO THE MID 20S. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ELSEWHERE ON
TEH INSIDE. OFFSHORE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS UP AND DOWN
THE ENTIRE COAST WILL PILE UP SEAS ALONG THE SHORE AND THERE ARE
SOME SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN THE FORECAST. SWELL OUT OF THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 8 SECONDS.

A VERY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST SHOULD A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
TOMORROW, DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

USED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR TONIGHT, THEN A NAM/GEM BLEND FOR
TOMORROW FOR PRESSURE AND WIND. POP AND QPF FROM NAM AND GEM.
TEMPS PER BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...REGION TO REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET UNDER WEAK FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING BUT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY WAVES ALONG THE STORM TRACK FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS. ON
FRI WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THERMAL FORCING SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA, CONCENTRATED ON
NORTHERN PORTIONS. NORTHWEST PORTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR
SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM STALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT AREAS OF RAIN ON
THE SOUTH SIDE AND SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST ON SAT. GFS STRONGER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
AREAS OF MOST OF CWA...AT LEAST...EXPECTED TO BE WET DURING THIS
TIME. GRADIENTS GENERALLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM OVERALL THOUGH SO
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PROBLEM.

A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WEEKEND WAVE WILL LIKELY REINFORCE
LIFT AND SHOWER PRODUCTION BY EARLY SUNDAY AS NEW CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THIS NEW
UPPER TROUGH. GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDGING ON MONDAY AS A NEW STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
BERING SEA...MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. RIDGING WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSIENT AND MOISTURE FROM THE NEW SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO GET
HERE LATE ON TUES. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ON TUES FOR NOW BUT WE
WILL SEE HOW THE TIMING PLAYS OUT.

NAM/GFS GRIDS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 84H THEN SETTLED ON A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND AFTER THAT POINT...AS MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY
WEEK...WITH GRIDS SELECTED IN LINE WITH WPC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IS AVERAGE OVERALL WITH THIS PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...VERY LOW CEILING AND AREAS OF FOG BELOW MINIMUMS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WILL IMPACT
AVIATION OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
LITTLE TO NO TURBULENCE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/WESLEY/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






000
FXAK67 PAJK 022331
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT AND
COVERS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND THE EFFECTS CAN BE SEEN IN
BOTH RADAR DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS. CURRENTLY NO RAIN IS FALLING OVER LAND SITES, BUT
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN
YAKUTAT BY EARLY EVENING. A THIN BUT WELL DEFINED BAND OF PRECIP
ON THE RADAR OFF THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST SHOULD ARRIVE OVER LAND
AROUND THE SAME TIME, BUT MAY FALL AS VIRGA WITHOUT REGISTERING
AT THE SURFACE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE LOWERS LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN STABLE. GIVEN THAT, AM EXPECTING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST, BUT CANNOT RULE THIS OUT BASED ON LAST NIGHT. CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK PRESWURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL ARE AT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SKAGWAY WINDS
HAVE BEEN THE UPPER TEENS WITH GUSTS TO THE MID 20S. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ELSEWHERE ON
TEH INSIDE. OFFSHORE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS UP AND DOWN
THE ENTIRE COAST WILL PILE UP SEAS ALONG THE SHORE AND THERE ARE
SOME SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN THE FORECAST. SWELL OUT OF THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 8 SECONDS.

A VERY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST SHOULD A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
TOMORROW, DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

USED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR TONIGHT, THEN A NAM/GEM BLEND FOR
TOMORROW FOR PRESSURE AND WIND. POP AND QPF FROM NAM AND GEM.
TEMPS PER BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...REGION TO REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET UNDER WEAK FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING BUT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY WAVES ALONG THE STORM TRACK FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS. ON
FRI WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THERMAL FORCING SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA, CONCENTRATED ON
NORTHERN PORTIONS. NORTHWEST PORTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR
SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM STALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT AREAS OF RAIN ON
THE SOUTH SIDE AND SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST ON SAT. GFS STRONGER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
AREAS OF MOST OF CWA...AT LEAST...EXPECTED TO BE WET DURING THIS
TIME. GRADIENTS GENERALLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM OVERALL THOUGH SO
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PROBLEM.

A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WEEKEND WAVE WILL LIKELY REINFORCE
LIFT AND SHOWER PRODUCTION BY EARLY SUNDAY AS NEW CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THIS NEW
UPPER TROUGH. GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDGING ON MONDAY AS A NEW STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
BERING SEA...MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. RIDGING WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSIENT AND MOISTURE FROM THE NEW SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO GET
HERE LATE ON TUES. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ON TUES FOR NOW BUT WE
WILL SEE HOW THE TIMING PLAYS OUT.

NAM/GFS GRIDS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 84H THEN SETTLED ON A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND AFTER THAT POINT...AS MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY
WEEK...WITH GRIDS SELECTED IN LINE WITH WPC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IS AVERAGE OVERALL WITH THIS PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...VERY LOW CEILING AND AREAS OF FOG BELOW MINIMUMS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WILL IMPACT
AVIATION OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
LITTLE TO NO TURBULENCE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/WESLEY/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK69 PAFG 022201
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
201 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE MID
TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE.

CURRENTLY A VERY WINTER LIKE 510 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA REMAINS PARKED
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST NORTHWEST OF BARROW. A POWERFUL
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW PAST DEMARCATION POINT AND THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MCKENZIE DELTA AND NORTHERN YUKON AND THEN
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM OLD CROW TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO
MCGRATH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
THIS EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED
FOR RAIN GENERALLY BELOW 3000 FEET. RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGED TO SNOW
THIS MORNING IN DENALI PARK WITH 5 INCHES REPORTED OVER HIGHER
PASSES. HEAVY SNOW ALSO REPORTED THROUGH ATIGUN PASS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO UNDER 500 FEET
IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 1500 FEET NEAR FAIRBANKS
TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER BASIN WITH REPORTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LITTLE CHENA RIVER. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER WILL BE
DROPPED HOWEVER WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO HEADLINES IN THE TANANA VALLEY BASIN AS
ADDITIONAL RAIN REPORTS FILTER IN.

NEXT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY ROTATING ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. 30 KT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGH SURF HEADLINES ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST AS WINDS
BUILD TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ZONE 206 AS
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR
MASS SWEEP OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS THE NEXT POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE RACES EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.

A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND IS LOST AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A PASC TO PAFM TO PAOM LINE FRIDAY EVENING
AND ALONG A PARC TO PFYU TO PAMC LINE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS DISPLAY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONE S 201 AND 202. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL ZONES AS
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA AND A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LITTLE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER...HOWEVER A
HYDRO STATEMENT COVERING HIGH WATER LEVELS IS IN THE WORKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ206

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UPPER CHENA

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LITTLE CHENA

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 022201
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
201 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE MID
TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE.

CURRENTLY A VERY WINTER LIKE 510 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA REMAINS PARKED
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST NORTHWEST OF BARROW. A POWERFUL
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW PAST DEMARCATION POINT AND THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MCKENZIE DELTA AND NORTHERN YUKON AND THEN
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM OLD CROW TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO
MCGRATH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
THIS EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED
FOR RAIN GENERALLY BELOW 3000 FEET. RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGED TO SNOW
THIS MORNING IN DENALI PARK WITH 5 INCHES REPORTED OVER HIGHER
PASSES. HEAVY SNOW ALSO REPORTED THROUGH ATIGUN PASS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO UNDER 500 FEET
IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 1500 FEET NEAR FAIRBANKS
TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER BASIN WITH REPORTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LITTLE CHENA RIVER. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER WILL BE
DROPPED HOWEVER WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO HEADLINES IN THE TANANA VALLEY BASIN AS
ADDITIONAL RAIN REPORTS FILTER IN.

NEXT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY ROTATING ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. 30 KT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGH SURF HEADLINES ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST AS WINDS
BUILD TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ZONE 206 AS
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR
MASS SWEEP OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS THE NEXT POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE RACES EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.

A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND IS LOST AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A PASC TO PAFM TO PAOM LINE FRIDAY EVENING
AND ALONG A PARC TO PFYU TO PAMC LINE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS DISPLAY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONE S 201 AND 202. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL ZONES AS
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA AND A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LITTLE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER...HOWEVER A
HYDRO STATEMENT COVERING HIGH WATER LEVELS IS IN THE WORKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ206

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UPPER CHENA

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LITTLE CHENA

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 022150
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
150 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST IS PUSHING ANOTHER
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
THERE ARE SOME DETAILS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAT ARE NOT
RESOLVED CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN MODELS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE WAY
THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN
DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WHICH WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS NEW TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL THEN BECOME
THE MAIN LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER THAT. THE
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THIS BASIC DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT BUT
DIFFER ON HOW LOW THE ORIGINAL LOW PERSISTS AND WHEN THE SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS. AT THIS TIME THE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF KODIAK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVEMENT INTO THE GULF FRIDAY LOOKS THE MOST
LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL RELEGATE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TO
ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL ALSO SEE SOME
RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THERE IS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO COOK INLET AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND
THEN DIMINISH SOME TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AND THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA WEAKENS. THIS
WILL ALSO END THE PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME MORE RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS AT
THAT TIME.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL THERE WILL
BE LARGE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL HAVE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRATUS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTLINE SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION. FOR THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
BY SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
POSITIONED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND MOVE NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING
SEA BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION BY SUNDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$

SEP 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 022150
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
150 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST IS PUSHING ANOTHER
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
THERE ARE SOME DETAILS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAT ARE NOT
RESOLVED CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN MODELS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE WAY
THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN
DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WHICH WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS NEW TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL THEN BECOME
THE MAIN LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER THAT. THE
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THIS BASIC DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT BUT
DIFFER ON HOW LOW THE ORIGINAL LOW PERSISTS AND WHEN THE SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS. AT THIS TIME THE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF KODIAK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVEMENT INTO THE GULF FRIDAY LOOKS THE MOST
LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL RELEGATE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TO
ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL ALSO SEE SOME
RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THERE IS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO COOK INLET AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND
THEN DIMINISH SOME TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AND THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA WEAKENS. THIS
WILL ALSO END THE PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME MORE RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS AT
THAT TIME.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL THERE WILL
BE LARGE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL HAVE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRATUS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTLINE SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION. FOR THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
BY SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
POSITIONED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND MOVE NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING
SEA BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION BY SUNDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$

SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021412
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
612 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COLD UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST IS STREAMING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AROUND THE BASE OF ITS TROUGH WITH THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST YESTERDAY RACED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND IS NOW STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF EAGLE
IN EASTERN ALASKA TO THE YUKON DELTA. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
WARMEST AIR MASS SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE BERING. THE
WARM AIR MASS BROUGHT RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES TO SAINT
PAUL IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS YESTERDAY...HIGH 56/LOW 51. PATCHY
FOG AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
AROSS THE KUSKOKWIM AND WESTERN AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. RAIN ALSO
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTH TO TALKEETNA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE BEAUFORT
SEA WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WORKS ON MOVING THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS
FAVORED MODEL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND ITS SURROUNDING WATERS AS IT
KEEPS THE FRONT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE
SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE A
SNOW MIX WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.

THE GFS WAS THE MODEL CHOICE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
BERING/ALEUTIANS AS IT INCLUDED A GENERAL BLEND OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SENDS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE BERING AND RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC STEER THE
ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY NOT GENERATING MUCH
PRECIPITATION. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST A STRONGER WAVE MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF
SPREADING RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND.

THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SENDING MULTIPLE
WAVES EAST BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING KEEPING THE VALLEYS DRY UNTIL THE MAIN WAVE FORCES THE
FRONT TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND JUST SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS TO THE EAST. AS FOR WINDS...GENERALLY A LIGHT FLOW ACROSS
THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
COOK INLET. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN GULF KEEPS A STRONGER SOUTH TO
WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE FRONT BRINGS RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS
FRONT SPREADS RAIN INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AND THEN BECOMES
SCATTERED AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA.


BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING OVER THE BERING BLOCKS LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING THIS WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ON SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES FROM NORTHERN
ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

KH SEP 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 021412
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
612 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COLD UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST IS STREAMING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AROUND THE BASE OF ITS TROUGH WITH THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST YESTERDAY RACED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND IS NOW STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF EAGLE
IN EASTERN ALASKA TO THE YUKON DELTA. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
WARMEST AIR MASS SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE BERING. THE
WARM AIR MASS BROUGHT RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES TO SAINT
PAUL IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS YESTERDAY...HIGH 56/LOW 51. PATCHY
FOG AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
AROSS THE KUSKOKWIM AND WESTERN AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. RAIN ALSO
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTH TO TALKEETNA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE BEAUFORT
SEA WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WORKS ON MOVING THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS
FAVORED MODEL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND ITS SURROUNDING WATERS AS IT
KEEPS THE FRONT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE
SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE A
SNOW MIX WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.

THE GFS WAS THE MODEL CHOICE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
BERING/ALEUTIANS AS IT INCLUDED A GENERAL BLEND OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SENDS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE BERING AND RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC STEER THE
ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY NOT GENERATING MUCH
PRECIPITATION. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST A STRONGER WAVE MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF
SPREADING RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND.

THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SENDING MULTIPLE
WAVES EAST BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING KEEPING THE VALLEYS DRY UNTIL THE MAIN WAVE FORCES THE
FRONT TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND JUST SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS TO THE EAST. AS FOR WINDS...GENERALLY A LIGHT FLOW ACROSS
THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
COOK INLET. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN GULF KEEPS A STRONGER SOUTH TO
WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE FRONT BRINGS RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS
FRONT SPREADS RAIN INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AND THEN BECOMES
SCATTERED AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA.


BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING OVER THE BERING BLOCKS LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING THIS WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ON SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES FROM NORTHERN
ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

KH SEP 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 021355
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
555 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWERS EXITING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAS PRIMARILY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE CLEARING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
INTENSITIES HAVE VARIED AS IT FORMS MANEUVERS AROUND AND
DISSIPATES. HOONAH AND WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND SEEM TO HAVE
HUNG ON TO THE DENSE FOG BETTER SO THAT HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND PANHANDLE. THINK
THE CLOUDS WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE THAT HAS FORMED THEM MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH
THE UP SLOPE FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION.

.LONG TERM...START OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
POSITIONED OVER THE NRN GULF BETWEEN A POLAR VORTEX OVER FAR NRN
INTERIOR AK...AND A RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE NERN PAC. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM W TO E WILL AID IN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SPREADING FROM THE NRN CWA
INTO CNTRL/SRN AREAS DURING WED AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD FROM THE NRN PAC INTO THE
SRN GULF. DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL/NRN GULF...THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE
DURING THU...WHICH WILL YIELD LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NWD
ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL AS THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT
INTO THE CNTRL/NRN CWA...WHILE A BRIEF WARM UP OCCURS S OF THE
FRONT DURING FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN CWA.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. INCREASING ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SLYS
AND A MOIST SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ATTM...THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES MOVING ENE...PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING OVER INTERIOR AK...A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RAIN THEN DECREASES WITHIN A POST
FRONTAL REGIME ON SUN AND POSSIBLY MON...BUT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SWLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SOON
THEREAFTER.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADING NWD INTO THE REGION. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS LONG TERM OUTLOOKS. FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO PRESSURE/WINDS...EXCEPT FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME
PERIOD...WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE PREVIOUS
PRESSURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO DEAMPLIFY A LOW OVER THE NRN GULF
INTRODUCED IN THE WPC ENSEMBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT WERE
NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE DUE TO ITS
LOCATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED FOR
POP/QPF...WITH MANUAL TWEAKS APPLIED IN ORDER TO BRING THESE
FIELDS MORE IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST CEILINGS BELOW 2000 AND A FAIR
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UNDER 800 FT. ALONG THE LOW
CLOUDS IS FOG WITH VARYING INTENSITIES FROM 1/4 MILE TO 4 MILES.
EXPECT THAT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AND START IMPROVING BY 9 AM AND THEN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ021-027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-043-051-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 021355
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
555 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWERS EXITING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAS PRIMARILY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE CLEARING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
INTENSITIES HAVE VARIED AS IT FORMS MANEUVERS AROUND AND
DISSIPATES. HOONAH AND WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND SEEM TO HAVE
HUNG ON TO THE DENSE FOG BETTER SO THAT HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND PANHANDLE. THINK
THE CLOUDS WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE THAT HAS FORMED THEM MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH
THE UP SLOPE FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION.

.LONG TERM...START OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
POSITIONED OVER THE NRN GULF BETWEEN A POLAR VORTEX OVER FAR NRN
INTERIOR AK...AND A RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE NERN PAC. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM W TO E WILL AID IN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SPREADING FROM THE NRN CWA
INTO CNTRL/SRN AREAS DURING WED AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD FROM THE NRN PAC INTO THE
SRN GULF. DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL/NRN GULF...THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE
DURING THU...WHICH WILL YIELD LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NWD
ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL AS THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT
INTO THE CNTRL/NRN CWA...WHILE A BRIEF WARM UP OCCURS S OF THE
FRONT DURING FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN CWA.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. INCREASING ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SLYS
AND A MOIST SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ATTM...THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES MOVING ENE...PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING OVER INTERIOR AK...A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RAIN THEN DECREASES WITHIN A POST
FRONTAL REGIME ON SUN AND POSSIBLY MON...BUT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SWLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SOON
THEREAFTER.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADING NWD INTO THE REGION. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS LONG TERM OUTLOOKS. FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO PRESSURE/WINDS...EXCEPT FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME
PERIOD...WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE PREVIOUS
PRESSURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO DEAMPLIFY A LOW OVER THE NRN GULF
INTRODUCED IN THE WPC ENSEMBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT WERE
NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE DUE TO ITS
LOCATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED FOR
POP/QPF...WITH MANUAL TWEAKS APPLIED IN ORDER TO BRING THESE
FIELDS MORE IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST CEILINGS BELOW 2000 AND A FAIR
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UNDER 800 FT. ALONG THE LOW
CLOUDS IS FOG WITH VARYING INTENSITIES FROM 1/4 MILE TO 4 MILES.
EXPECT THAT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AND START IMPROVING BY 9 AM AND THEN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ021-027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-043-051-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK69 PAFG 021314
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
514 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL MOVE TO NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPAWNED A FEW
SURFACE LOWS AND IS CURRENTLY VERTICALLY STACKED. SECONDARY
SURFACE LOWS ARE JUST NORTH OF MACKENZIE BAY AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR
ARCTIC VILLAGE. FROM THE MACKENZIE BAY LOW AND BACK TO THE ARCTIC
VILLAGE LOW EXTENDS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT.

THE LOWER LEVEL JET IS RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THIS BRINGING
IN TONS OF MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH HAS
ALREADY PROVIDED IN SOME PLACES UP NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ONE
INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE VERY COMMON FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH
THROUGH FAIRBANKS.

MEANWHILE VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE HAS
BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOWFALL MODELS ARE
DOING A VERY POOR JOB OVERALL BUT MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
BROOKS RANGE THAN OTHER LOCATIONS IS THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT
WITH NOT MUCH DATA AVAILABLE.

WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE WINDS HAVE FAILED
TO BE REALIZED AT MOST OF THE VALLEY LEVEL LOCATIONS. THE HIGHER
LEVEL LOCATIONS ARE SEEING INCREASED WINDS BUT SO FAR NOT TO THE
POINT AS ORIGINALLY BELIEVED THEY WOULD BE AT THE VALLEY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND SOME WILL
LIKELY REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO REGISTER THE
UPWARD TREND AS OF TUE MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ222-AKZ224.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 021314
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
514 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL MOVE TO NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPAWNED A FEW
SURFACE LOWS AND IS CURRENTLY VERTICALLY STACKED. SECONDARY
SURFACE LOWS ARE JUST NORTH OF MACKENZIE BAY AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR
ARCTIC VILLAGE. FROM THE MACKENZIE BAY LOW AND BACK TO THE ARCTIC
VILLAGE LOW EXTENDS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT.

THE LOWER LEVEL JET IS RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THIS BRINGING
IN TONS OF MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH HAS
ALREADY PROVIDED IN SOME PLACES UP NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ONE
INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE VERY COMMON FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH
THROUGH FAIRBANKS.

MEANWHILE VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE HAS
BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOWFALL MODELS ARE
DOING A VERY POOR JOB OVERALL BUT MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
BROOKS RANGE THAN OTHER LOCATIONS IS THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT
WITH NOT MUCH DATA AVAILABLE.

WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE WINDS HAVE FAILED
TO BE REALIZED AT MOST OF THE VALLEY LEVEL LOCATIONS. THE HIGHER
LEVEL LOCATIONS ARE SEEING INCREASED WINDS BUT SO FAR NOT TO THE
POINT AS ORIGINALLY BELIEVED THEY WOULD BE AT THE VALLEY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND SOME WILL
LIKELY REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO REGISTER THE
UPWARD TREND AS OF TUE MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ222-AKZ224.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 020247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
647 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE VARIETY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR ON THE
MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 4 AM THU.

A WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 502 DAM AT 500 MB...IS CENTERED
ABOUT 250 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY 10 PM TUE AND TO ABOUT 150 NM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 10 PM WED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THU.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOT EASILY RECOGNIZABLE IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA WEST COAST
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY 4 PM WED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BY 10 AM TUE THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
EAGLE TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE ARE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH IS VERY RARE THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON AND MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN ACTIVE WINTER STORM
PATTERN. A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS
60-65 KT AT 850 MB...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. A 995 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN BETTLES AND AMBLER AND THE 6 HOUR PROG FROM THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS VERIFYING WELL ON THE LOW POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THIS LOW CENTER RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR TONIGHT. BY 4AM TUE THE LOW
CENTER WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER...AND MOVING TO 250 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 10 AM TUE...MAINTAINING A 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.8
INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY...UP TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND
NOATAK VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A 0.5 INCH
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT SOME SITES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
THE PEDRO DOME WSR-88D IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ESTIMATED
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS
0.6-0.8 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA. WHILE THESE
ARE ONLY UNVERIFIED ESTIMATES...IT IS GOOD INDICATION THAT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...CENTRAL INTERIOR...MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...DENALI... AND
NEARBY AREAS IN ZONES 223 AND 224. CURRENT GFS AND NAM INDICATING
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONE. UP TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED IN DENALI AND WESTERN PARTS OF ZONE 223 DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. WITH THE VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CHENA AND CHATANIKA BASINS...RESULTING IN LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE UPPER CHENA RIVER... LITTLE CHENA
RIVER...AND THE CHATANIKA RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE RIVERS. HIGH WATER LEVELS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO THESE RIVERS. DUE TO THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...NO FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA
RANGE. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT AND RARE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON IS EXPECTED IN DENALI PARK...WHERE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET MSL. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
DENALI PARK ROAD TODAY.

THE RAPIDLY MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WILL
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS ON
HIGHWAYS IN ZONES 220-221 AND 222 TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 220-221 AND 222.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TAPER OFF
TUE MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.

ON THE WEST COAST...WINDS OVER NORTON SOUND ARE DECREASING
AND SEA LEVELS ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND SHORELINE
WILL BE FALLING THIS EVENING.

OVER THE ARCTIC REGION...A 985 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY 4 PM TUE...BECOMING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY 4 AM WED. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SEAS AND SURF ALONG THE
COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD...ALONG WITH HIGH SURFACE AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND ADJOINING MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THAT EXPECTED
IN THE CURRENT ONGOING EVENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NULATO
HILLS...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN THAT AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE CHENA AND
CHATANIKA RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY BRING THE UPPER CHENA
RIVER...CHATANIKA RIVER...AND THE LITTLE CHENA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY...AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ212.
WINTER STORM WARNING...AKZ206-AKZ225.
FLOOD WATCH...AKZ222-AKZ224.
FLOOD ADVISORY...AKZ212-AKZ216.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ218.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 020247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
647 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE VARIETY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR ON THE
MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 4 AM THU.

A WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 502 DAM AT 500 MB...IS CENTERED
ABOUT 250 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY 10 PM TUE AND TO ABOUT 150 NM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 10 PM WED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THU.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOT EASILY RECOGNIZABLE IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA WEST COAST
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY 4 PM WED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BY 10 AM TUE THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
EAGLE TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE ARE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH IS VERY RARE THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON AND MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN ACTIVE WINTER STORM
PATTERN. A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS
60-65 KT AT 850 MB...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. A 995 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN BETTLES AND AMBLER AND THE 6 HOUR PROG FROM THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS VERIFYING WELL ON THE LOW POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THIS LOW CENTER RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR TONIGHT. BY 4AM TUE THE LOW
CENTER WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER...AND MOVING TO 250 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 10 AM TUE...MAINTAINING A 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.8
INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY...UP TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND
NOATAK VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A 0.5 INCH
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT SOME SITES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
THE PEDRO DOME WSR-88D IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ESTIMATED
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS
0.6-0.8 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA. WHILE THESE
ARE ONLY UNVERIFIED ESTIMATES...IT IS GOOD INDICATION THAT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...CENTRAL INTERIOR...MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...DENALI... AND
NEARBY AREAS IN ZONES 223 AND 224. CURRENT GFS AND NAM INDICATING
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONE. UP TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED IN DENALI AND WESTERN PARTS OF ZONE 223 DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. WITH THE VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CHENA AND CHATANIKA BASINS...RESULTING IN LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE UPPER CHENA RIVER... LITTLE CHENA
RIVER...AND THE CHATANIKA RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE RIVERS. HIGH WATER LEVELS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO THESE RIVERS. DUE TO THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...NO FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA
RANGE. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT AND RARE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON IS EXPECTED IN DENALI PARK...WHERE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET MSL. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
DENALI PARK ROAD TODAY.

THE RAPIDLY MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WILL
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS ON
HIGHWAYS IN ZONES 220-221 AND 222 TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 220-221 AND 222.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TAPER OFF
TUE MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.

ON THE WEST COAST...WINDS OVER NORTON SOUND ARE DECREASING
AND SEA LEVELS ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND SHORELINE
WILL BE FALLING THIS EVENING.

OVER THE ARCTIC REGION...A 985 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY 4 PM TUE...BECOMING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY 4 AM WED. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SEAS AND SURF ALONG THE
COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD...ALONG WITH HIGH SURFACE AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND ADJOINING MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THAT EXPECTED
IN THE CURRENT ONGOING EVENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NULATO
HILLS...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN THAT AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE CHENA AND
CHATANIKA RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY BRING THE UPPER CHENA
RIVER...CHATANIKA RIVER...AND THE LITTLE CHENA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY...AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ212.
WINTER STORM WARNING...AKZ206-AKZ225.
FLOOD WATCH...AKZ222-AKZ224.
FLOOD ADVISORY...AKZ212-AKZ216.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ218.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 020247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
647 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE VARIETY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR ON THE
MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 4 AM THU.

A WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 502 DAM AT 500 MB...IS CENTERED
ABOUT 250 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY 10 PM TUE AND TO ABOUT 150 NM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 10 PM WED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THU.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOT EASILY RECOGNIZABLE IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA WEST COAST
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY 4 PM WED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BY 10 AM TUE THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
EAGLE TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE ARE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH IS VERY RARE THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON AND MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN ACTIVE WINTER STORM
PATTERN. A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS
60-65 KT AT 850 MB...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. A 995 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN BETTLES AND AMBLER AND THE 6 HOUR PROG FROM THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS VERIFYING WELL ON THE LOW POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THIS LOW CENTER RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR TONIGHT. BY 4AM TUE THE LOW
CENTER WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER...AND MOVING TO 250 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 10 AM TUE...MAINTAINING A 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.8
INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY...UP TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND
NOATAK VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A 0.5 INCH
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT SOME SITES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
THE PEDRO DOME WSR-88D IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ESTIMATED
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS
0.6-0.8 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA. WHILE THESE
ARE ONLY UNVERIFIED ESTIMATES...IT IS GOOD INDICATION THAT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...CENTRAL INTERIOR...MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...DENALI... AND
NEARBY AREAS IN ZONES 223 AND 224. CURRENT GFS AND NAM INDICATING
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONE. UP TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED IN DENALI AND WESTERN PARTS OF ZONE 223 DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. WITH THE VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CHENA AND CHATANIKA BASINS...RESULTING IN LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE UPPER CHENA RIVER... LITTLE CHENA
RIVER...AND THE CHATANIKA RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE RIVERS. HIGH WATER LEVELS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO THESE RIVERS. DUE TO THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...NO FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA
RANGE. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT AND RARE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON IS EXPECTED IN DENALI PARK...WHERE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET MSL. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
DENALI PARK ROAD TODAY.

THE RAPIDLY MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WILL
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS ON
HIGHWAYS IN ZONES 220-221 AND 222 TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 220-221 AND 222.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TAPER OFF
TUE MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.

ON THE WEST COAST...WINDS OVER NORTON SOUND ARE DECREASING
AND SEA LEVELS ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND SHORELINE
WILL BE FALLING THIS EVENING.

OVER THE ARCTIC REGION...A 985 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY 4 PM TUE...BECOMING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY 4 AM WED. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SEAS AND SURF ALONG THE
COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD...ALONG WITH HIGH SURFACE AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND ADJOINING MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THAT EXPECTED
IN THE CURRENT ONGOING EVENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NULATO
HILLS...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN THAT AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE CHENA AND
CHATANIKA RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY BRING THE UPPER CHENA
RIVER...CHATANIKA RIVER...AND THE LITTLE CHENA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY...AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ212.
WINTER STORM WARNING...AKZ206-AKZ225.
FLOOD WATCH...AKZ222-AKZ224.
FLOOD ADVISORY...AKZ212-AKZ216.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ218.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 020247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
647 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE VARIETY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR ON THE
MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 4 AM THU.

A WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 502 DAM AT 500 MB...IS CENTERED
ABOUT 250 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY 10 PM TUE AND TO ABOUT 150 NM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 10 PM WED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THU.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOT EASILY RECOGNIZABLE IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA WEST COAST
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY 4 PM WED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BY 10 AM TUE THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
EAGLE TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE ARE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH IS VERY RARE THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON AND MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN ACTIVE WINTER STORM
PATTERN. A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS
60-65 KT AT 850 MB...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. A 995 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN BETTLES AND AMBLER AND THE 6 HOUR PROG FROM THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS VERIFYING WELL ON THE LOW POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THIS LOW CENTER RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR TONIGHT. BY 4AM TUE THE LOW
CENTER WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER...AND MOVING TO 250 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 10 AM TUE...MAINTAINING A 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.8
INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY...UP TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND
NOATAK VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A 0.5 INCH
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT SOME SITES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
THE PEDRO DOME WSR-88D IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ESTIMATED
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS
0.6-0.8 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA. WHILE THESE
ARE ONLY UNVERIFIED ESTIMATES...IT IS GOOD INDICATION THAT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...CENTRAL INTERIOR...MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...DENALI... AND
NEARBY AREAS IN ZONES 223 AND 224. CURRENT GFS AND NAM INDICATING
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONE. UP TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED IN DENALI AND WESTERN PARTS OF ZONE 223 DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. WITH THE VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CHENA AND CHATANIKA BASINS...RESULTING IN LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE UPPER CHENA RIVER... LITTLE CHENA
RIVER...AND THE CHATANIKA RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE RIVERS. HIGH WATER LEVELS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO THESE RIVERS. DUE TO THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...NO FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA
RANGE. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT AND RARE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON IS EXPECTED IN DENALI PARK...WHERE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET MSL. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
DENALI PARK ROAD TODAY.

THE RAPIDLY MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WILL
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS ON
HIGHWAYS IN ZONES 220-221 AND 222 TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 220-221 AND 222.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TAPER OFF
TUE MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.

ON THE WEST COAST...WINDS OVER NORTON SOUND ARE DECREASING
AND SEA LEVELS ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND SHORELINE
WILL BE FALLING THIS EVENING.

OVER THE ARCTIC REGION...A 985 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY 4 PM TUE...BECOMING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY 4 AM WED. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SEAS AND SURF ALONG THE
COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD...ALONG WITH HIGH SURFACE AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND ADJOINING MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THAT EXPECTED
IN THE CURRENT ONGOING EVENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NULATO
HILLS...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN THAT AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE CHENA AND
CHATANIKA RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY BRING THE UPPER CHENA
RIVER...CHATANIKA RIVER...AND THE LITTLE CHENA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY...AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ212.
WINTER STORM WARNING...AKZ206-AKZ225.
FLOOD WATCH...AKZ222-AKZ224.
FLOOD ADVISORY...AKZ212-AKZ216.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ218.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF SEP 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 012230
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
230 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WNW WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT IS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF ISOLATED MARINE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DIXON ENTRANCE.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTER COAST, WHERE
THE THREAT IS THE GREATEST. AS SHOWERS DEPART TO THE EAST, PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE. LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALREADY FORMED
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE YAKUTAT ZONE AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S. SIMILARLY, TOMORROW`S
HIGH SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT DAYS WHERE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT, POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS ENHANCED AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
BOTH MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS SAW
CEILINGS REMAIN WELL BELOW 1000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY DAY...JUST IN TIME
TO GO BACK TO WORK.

USED A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND.
POP AND QPF FROM GEM AND ECMWF. TEMPS PER BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND
ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN ANCHORED
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA STARTS
DRIFTING EAST TO BANKS ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA INTERIOR EXPENDS EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO THE PANHANDLE. BLENDED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE NAM AND GFS FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS AND INITIALIZATION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE LOWER LEVEL...A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA
HAS A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL DRIFT NORTH TO
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EAST OVER THE GULF IN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR DRIFTING EAST INTO THE THE YUKON AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVING EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ERODE SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...OPENING A DOOR FOR FRONTAL RAIN BANDS COMING INTO
THE OUTER WATERS AND THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH PREVAILING NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW...EXPECT
NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE PROGRESS BUT
THE SUB-TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE MAY POSE CERTAIN
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COASTAL
REGIONS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
RELAXED BETWEEN THE MAIN HIGHS AND LOWS IN DISTANCE...AND EXPECT NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS BUT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY SWELLS.
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST ALASKA
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...MODEL DIVERTING BECOMES LARGER AS THE GFS
STAYS ON A FAST PROGRESSIVE MODE WITH THE BRISTOL BAY LOW DRIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWER MODE TO BRING
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF. OPTED THE NEW WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM PERIODS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY THEN FALLS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...MARGINAL VMC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF LOW IMC. POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT MAY BE A FACTOR FOR EARLY MORNING
AVIATION OPERATIONS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 012230
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
230 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WNW WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT IS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF ISOLATED MARINE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DIXON ENTRANCE.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTER COAST, WHERE
THE THREAT IS THE GREATEST. AS SHOWERS DEPART TO THE EAST, PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE. LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALREADY FORMED
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE YAKUTAT ZONE AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S. SIMILARLY, TOMORROW`S
HIGH SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT DAYS WHERE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT, POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS ENHANCED AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
BOTH MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS SAW
CEILINGS REMAIN WELL BELOW 1000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY DAY...JUST IN TIME
TO GO BACK TO WORK.

USED A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND.
POP AND QPF FROM GEM AND ECMWF. TEMPS PER BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND
ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN ANCHORED
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA STARTS
DRIFTING EAST TO BANKS ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA INTERIOR EXPENDS EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO THE PANHANDLE. BLENDED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE NAM AND GFS FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS AND INITIALIZATION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE LOWER LEVEL...A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA
HAS A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL DRIFT NORTH TO
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EAST OVER THE GULF IN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR DRIFTING EAST INTO THE THE YUKON AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVING EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ERODE SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...OPENING A DOOR FOR FRONTAL RAIN BANDS COMING INTO
THE OUTER WATERS AND THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH PREVAILING NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW...EXPECT
NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE PROGRESS BUT
THE SUB-TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE MAY POSE CERTAIN
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COASTAL
REGIONS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
RELAXED BETWEEN THE MAIN HIGHS AND LOWS IN DISTANCE...AND EXPECT NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS BUT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY SWELLS.
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST ALASKA
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...MODEL DIVERTING BECOMES LARGER AS THE GFS
STAYS ON A FAST PROGRESSIVE MODE WITH THE BRISTOL BAY LOW DRIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWER MODE TO BRING
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF. OPTED THE NEW WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM PERIODS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY THEN FALLS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...MARGINAL VMC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF LOW IMC. POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT MAY BE A FACTOR FOR EARLY MORNING
AVIATION OPERATIONS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK68 PAFC 012142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
OFF THE ARCTIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH
EXTENDS OUT FROM IT AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA. THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD BY THIS TROUGH AND
THEREFORE MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS HOLDING
FIRM TODAY WHICH IS BRINGING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHERE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS ELONGATING AND POSSIBLY
FORMING A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE WAY THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS IS
HANDLED MUCH DIFFERENTLY ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS. THE GFS APPEARS TO MOVE THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WAY TOO FAST
RESULTING IN IT PLACING THE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE OVERALL DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLOWER TIMING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE TWO MODELS WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
THAT MAY BE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT A NUMBER OF SUNNY
DAYS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
BE FROM TALKEETNA NORTHWARD. THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
LIKELY JUST SEE INCREASED CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS WITH SOUTH CENTRAL THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
IS NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH IS LIMITING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A
LARGE AMOUNT OF STRATUS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH IS ALREADY ON
SHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
AS WELL AS FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA IS UNDER THE MARINE STRATUS HOWEVER
THE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM ADAK EASTWARD. THE STRATUS WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IN BACK INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS SOMETIME TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 012142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
OFF THE ARCTIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH
EXTENDS OUT FROM IT AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA. THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD BY THIS TROUGH AND
THEREFORE MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS HOLDING
FIRM TODAY WHICH IS BRINGING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHERE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS ELONGATING AND POSSIBLY
FORMING A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE WAY THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS IS
HANDLED MUCH DIFFERENTLY ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS. THE GFS APPEARS TO MOVE THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WAY TOO FAST
RESULTING IN IT PLACING THE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE OVERALL DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLOWER TIMING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE TWO MODELS WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
THAT MAY BE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT A NUMBER OF SUNNY
DAYS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
BE FROM TALKEETNA NORTHWARD. THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
LIKELY JUST SEE INCREASED CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS WITH SOUTH CENTRAL THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
IS NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH IS LIMITING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A
LARGE AMOUNT OF STRATUS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH IS ALREADY ON
SHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
AS WELL AS FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA IS UNDER THE MARINE STRATUS HOWEVER
THE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM ADAK EASTWARD. THE STRATUS WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IN BACK INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS SOMETIME TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 012142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
OFF THE ARCTIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH
EXTENDS OUT FROM IT AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA. THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD BY THIS TROUGH AND
THEREFORE MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS HOLDING
FIRM TODAY WHICH IS BRINGING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHERE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS ELONGATING AND POSSIBLY
FORMING A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE WAY THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS IS
HANDLED MUCH DIFFERENTLY ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS. THE GFS APPEARS TO MOVE THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WAY TOO FAST
RESULTING IN IT PLACING THE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE OVERALL DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLOWER TIMING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE TWO MODELS WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
THAT MAY BE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT A NUMBER OF SUNNY
DAYS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
BE FROM TALKEETNA NORTHWARD. THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
LIKELY JUST SEE INCREASED CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS WITH SOUTH CENTRAL THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
IS NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH IS LIMITING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A
LARGE AMOUNT OF STRATUS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH IS ALREADY ON
SHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
AS WELL AS FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA IS UNDER THE MARINE STRATUS HOWEVER
THE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM ADAK EASTWARD. THE STRATUS WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IN BACK INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS SOMETIME TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 012142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
OFF THE ARCTIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH
EXTENDS OUT FROM IT AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA. THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD BY THIS TROUGH AND
THEREFORE MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS HOLDING
FIRM TODAY WHICH IS BRINGING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHERE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS ELONGATING AND POSSIBLY
FORMING A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE WAY THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS IS
HANDLED MUCH DIFFERENTLY ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS. THE GFS APPEARS TO MOVE THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WAY TOO FAST
RESULTING IN IT PLACING THE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE OVERALL DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLOWER TIMING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE TWO MODELS WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
THAT MAY BE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT A NUMBER OF SUNNY
DAYS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
BE FROM TALKEETNA NORTHWARD. THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
LIKELY JUST SEE INCREASED CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS WITH SOUTH CENTRAL THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
IS NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH IS LIMITING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A
LARGE AMOUNT OF STRATUS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH IS ALREADY ON
SHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
AS WELL AS FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA IS UNDER THE MARINE STRATUS HOWEVER
THE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM ADAK EASTWARD. THE STRATUS WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IN BACK INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS SOMETIME TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 011425
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
625 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND
WITH THE PARENT LOW SPINNING NORTH OF BARROW EARLY THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM BARTER ISLAND TO THE NORTHERN KENAI AND
IS SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AS SUBSIDENCE IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE WEST...A RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE
BERING...STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST COAST
WHERE A FRONT IS A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEWARD
PENINSULA TO LOWER YUKON VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO STRAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE CLOSED CENTERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHIFT THE ARCTIC LOW NEAR BARROW
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ITS CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OF
KAKTOVIK ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE
ARCTIC LOW MOVES EAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO MID WEEK. THE BERING RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
GULF AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE FROM THE ARCTIC LOW...HOWEVER THE ENERGY IS SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF AND ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE GULF COAST. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP
THIS MORNING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE FRONT LOSES MOMENTUM AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND WINDS TAPER OFF AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SUSITNA AND
COPER RIVER VALLEYS. DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO ITS SOUTH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST. QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST
FROM THE BERING.


BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RIDGING KEEPS THE SOUTHERN BERING UNDER WEAK FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT AND RIDGING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING BRINGS A WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH MID WEEK AND
THEN A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LONG WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE BERING AT THE END OF THE WEEK
PUSHING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE SHOULD
HOLD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO
THE WEEKEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

KH SEP 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 011425
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
625 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND
WITH THE PARENT LOW SPINNING NORTH OF BARROW EARLY THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM BARTER ISLAND TO THE NORTHERN KENAI AND
IS SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AS SUBSIDENCE IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE WEST...A RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE
BERING...STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST COAST
WHERE A FRONT IS A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEWARD
PENINSULA TO LOWER YUKON VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO STRAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE CLOSED CENTERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHIFT THE ARCTIC LOW NEAR BARROW
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ITS CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OF
KAKTOVIK ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE
ARCTIC LOW MOVES EAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO MID WEEK. THE BERING RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
GULF AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE FROM THE ARCTIC LOW...HOWEVER THE ENERGY IS SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF AND ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE GULF COAST. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP
THIS MORNING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE FRONT LOSES MOMENTUM AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND WINDS TAPER OFF AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SUSITNA AND
COPER RIVER VALLEYS. DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO ITS SOUTH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST. QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST
FROM THE BERING.


BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RIDGING KEEPS THE SOUTHERN BERING UNDER WEAK FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT AND RIDGING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING BRINGS A WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH MID WEEK AND
THEN A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LONG WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE BERING AT THE END OF THE WEEK
PUSHING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE SHOULD
HOLD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO
THE WEEKEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

KH SEP 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 011336
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF TO DIXON ENTRANCE BY MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MINOR
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE AREAS AS IT
PASSES. AS SUCH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINS AND LIGHTER WINDS AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THINK THE AREAS THAT NORMALLY
DEVELOP IT COULD DO SO...SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TO DENSE TO
MY INITIAL THINKING.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND
EXPECT A SWELL TO KEEP THE SEAS UP FOR COASTAL WATER SOUTH OF
CROSS SOUND ABOVE 8 FT WHERE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED. WINDS IN THE
INNER CHANNELS ARE LOOKING TO STAY LESS THAN 20 KT GENERALLY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING SERN AK DURING TUE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...A MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF...WHILE A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE GRADUALLY MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR
NRN INTERIOR AK AND NWRN CANADA. WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
LOCATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN CANADA WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS IN NRN LYNN CANAL TUE AND WED.

MEANWHILE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE THU-SAT TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION...BUT THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE BEGINNING TO CATCH
UP. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WILL
BE TIED TO SMALLER-SCALE WAVES EMANATING FROM A TROUGH LOCATED S
OF THE ALEUTIANS...WHICH ARE INHERENTLY HARD TO PREDICT 3-4 DAYS
OUT. THUS...REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH REGARD TO POPS AND QPF.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN /SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW/.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WED...AND THEN IS
BELOW AVERAGE...THOUGH IMPROVING...THU THROUGH MON. USED A
GFS/SREF BLEND FOR POP/S 15Z TUE-12Z THU...AND THEN ENSEMBLE BLEND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WERE VERY
HIGH THU AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF SMALLER-SCALE
UPPER WAVES. THUS...CUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DRAMATICALLY UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE
MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CNTRL/SRN AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING LESS THE YAKUTAT REGION THAT IS BEHIND THE
PRIMARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED IFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE CLOUDS LIFT AND
SHOWERS TAPER OFF. AM CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SO FLIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COST FROM CROSS SOUND
SOUTH SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS SERN AK BY THU AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SAT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH
REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING OF HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES RANGING
FROM 1-3 INCHES PER 12 HRS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 011336
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF TO DIXON ENTRANCE BY MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MINOR
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE AREAS AS IT
PASSES. AS SUCH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINS AND LIGHTER WINDS AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THINK THE AREAS THAT NORMALLY
DEVELOP IT COULD DO SO...SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TO DENSE TO
MY INITIAL THINKING.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND
EXPECT A SWELL TO KEEP THE SEAS UP FOR COASTAL WATER SOUTH OF
CROSS SOUND ABOVE 8 FT WHERE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED. WINDS IN THE
INNER CHANNELS ARE LOOKING TO STAY LESS THAN 20 KT GENERALLY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING SERN AK DURING TUE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...A MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF...WHILE A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE GRADUALLY MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR
NRN INTERIOR AK AND NWRN CANADA. WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
LOCATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN CANADA WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS IN NRN LYNN CANAL TUE AND WED.

MEANWHILE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE THU-SAT TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION...BUT THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE BEGINNING TO CATCH
UP. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WILL
BE TIED TO SMALLER-SCALE WAVES EMANATING FROM A TROUGH LOCATED S
OF THE ALEUTIANS...WHICH ARE INHERENTLY HARD TO PREDICT 3-4 DAYS
OUT. THUS...REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH REGARD TO POPS AND QPF.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN /SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW/.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WED...AND THEN IS
BELOW AVERAGE...THOUGH IMPROVING...THU THROUGH MON. USED A
GFS/SREF BLEND FOR POP/S 15Z TUE-12Z THU...AND THEN ENSEMBLE BLEND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WERE VERY
HIGH THU AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF SMALLER-SCALE
UPPER WAVES. THUS...CUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DRAMATICALLY UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE
MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CNTRL/SRN AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING LESS THE YAKUTAT REGION THAT IS BEHIND THE
PRIMARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED IFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE CLOUDS LIFT AND
SHOWERS TAPER OFF. AM CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SO FLIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COST FROM CROSS SOUND
SOUTH SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS SERN AK BY THU AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SAT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH
REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING OF HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES RANGING
FROM 1-3 INCHES PER 12 HRS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 011336
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF TO DIXON ENTRANCE BY MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MINOR
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE AREAS AS IT
PASSES. AS SUCH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINS AND LIGHTER WINDS AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THINK THE AREAS THAT NORMALLY
DEVELOP IT COULD DO SO...SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TO DENSE TO
MY INITIAL THINKING.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND
EXPECT A SWELL TO KEEP THE SEAS UP FOR COASTAL WATER SOUTH OF
CROSS SOUND ABOVE 8 FT WHERE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED. WINDS IN THE
INNER CHANNELS ARE LOOKING TO STAY LESS THAN 20 KT GENERALLY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING SERN AK DURING TUE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...A MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF...WHILE A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE GRADUALLY MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR
NRN INTERIOR AK AND NWRN CANADA. WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
LOCATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN CANADA WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS IN NRN LYNN CANAL TUE AND WED.

MEANWHILE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE THU-SAT TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION...BUT THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE BEGINNING TO CATCH
UP. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WILL
BE TIED TO SMALLER-SCALE WAVES EMANATING FROM A TROUGH LOCATED S
OF THE ALEUTIANS...WHICH ARE INHERENTLY HARD TO PREDICT 3-4 DAYS
OUT. THUS...REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH REGARD TO POPS AND QPF.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN /SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW/.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WED...AND THEN IS
BELOW AVERAGE...THOUGH IMPROVING...THU THROUGH MON. USED A
GFS/SREF BLEND FOR POP/S 15Z TUE-12Z THU...AND THEN ENSEMBLE BLEND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WERE VERY
HIGH THU AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF SMALLER-SCALE
UPPER WAVES. THUS...CUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DRAMATICALLY UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE
MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CNTRL/SRN AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING LESS THE YAKUTAT REGION THAT IS BEHIND THE
PRIMARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED IFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE CLOUDS LIFT AND
SHOWERS TAPER OFF. AM CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SO FLIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COST FROM CROSS SOUND
SOUTH SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS SERN AK BY THU AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SAT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH
REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING OF HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES RANGING
FROM 1-3 INCHES PER 12 HRS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 011336
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF TO DIXON ENTRANCE BY MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MINOR
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE AREAS AS IT
PASSES. AS SUCH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINS AND LIGHTER WINDS AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THINK THE AREAS THAT NORMALLY
DEVELOP IT COULD DO SO...SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TO DENSE TO
MY INITIAL THINKING.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND
EXPECT A SWELL TO KEEP THE SEAS UP FOR COASTAL WATER SOUTH OF
CROSS SOUND ABOVE 8 FT WHERE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED. WINDS IN THE
INNER CHANNELS ARE LOOKING TO STAY LESS THAN 20 KT GENERALLY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING SERN AK DURING TUE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...A MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF...WHILE A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE GRADUALLY MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR
NRN INTERIOR AK AND NWRN CANADA. WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
LOCATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN CANADA WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS IN NRN LYNN CANAL TUE AND WED.

MEANWHILE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE THU-SAT TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION...BUT THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE BEGINNING TO CATCH
UP. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WILL
BE TIED TO SMALLER-SCALE WAVES EMANATING FROM A TROUGH LOCATED S
OF THE ALEUTIANS...WHICH ARE INHERENTLY HARD TO PREDICT 3-4 DAYS
OUT. THUS...REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH REGARD TO POPS AND QPF.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN /SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW/.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WED...AND THEN IS
BELOW AVERAGE...THOUGH IMPROVING...THU THROUGH MON. USED A
GFS/SREF BLEND FOR POP/S 15Z TUE-12Z THU...AND THEN ENSEMBLE BLEND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WERE VERY
HIGH THU AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF SMALLER-SCALE
UPPER WAVES. THUS...CUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DRAMATICALLY UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE
MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CNTRL/SRN AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING LESS THE YAKUTAT REGION THAT IS BEHIND THE
PRIMARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED IFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE CLOUDS LIFT AND
SHOWERS TAPER OFF. AM CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SO FLIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COST FROM CROSS SOUND
SOUTH SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS SERN AK BY THU AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SAT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH
REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING OF HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES RANGING
FROM 1-3 INCHES PER 12 HRS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK69 PAFG 011028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE DEPARTING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. CURRENT WINTER
DEPTH 500 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED 250 M NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL WOBBLE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT ABOUT 50
NM NORTH OF BARROW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN
MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TO BE 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A 516 DAM LOW.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WHICH IS NOW PLOWING ITS
WAY INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA. A 996 MB WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED NEAR PABT
MONDAY NIGHT AND PARC TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR AND STALLS EAST WEST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED UPSLOPE WILL
GENERATE HEAVY PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1
INCH OR MORE FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS
IN WESTERN ALASKA AND 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. WIDESPREAD
SWATH STORM TOTAL RAIN FALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS FORECAST
FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM DENALI NATIONAL
PARK TO FAIRBANKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY. AGAIN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
FOR AROUND 5000 FT TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3000 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP IN THE BROOKS RANGE FROM AROUND 3000 FT THIS
MORNING TO VALLEY LEVEL TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE BROOKS RANGE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 KT TO 60KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES 221...222 AND 220 AS WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND
HILLS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE VALUES IN EASTERN NORTON
SOUND THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WELL
OFF SHORE BUT CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. ON SHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KTS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF.
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
NEAR ICY CAPE AND AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR BARROW WITH 6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES
OFF SHORE TUESDAY. FETCH IS REASONABLE IN BOTH CASES HOWEVER WIND
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE WILL LIMIT HIGH SURF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT FLASHY RESPONSE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE SO NO SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER HYDRO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WILL LIKELY RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 011028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE DEPARTING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. CURRENT WINTER
DEPTH 500 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED 250 M NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL WOBBLE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT ABOUT 50
NM NORTH OF BARROW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN
MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TO BE 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A 516 DAM LOW.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WHICH IS NOW PLOWING ITS
WAY INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA. A 996 MB WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED NEAR PABT
MONDAY NIGHT AND PARC TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR AND STALLS EAST WEST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED UPSLOPE WILL
GENERATE HEAVY PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1
INCH OR MORE FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS
IN WESTERN ALASKA AND 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. WIDESPREAD
SWATH STORM TOTAL RAIN FALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS FORECAST
FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM DENALI NATIONAL
PARK TO FAIRBANKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY. AGAIN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
FOR AROUND 5000 FT TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3000 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP IN THE BROOKS RANGE FROM AROUND 3000 FT THIS
MORNING TO VALLEY LEVEL TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE BROOKS RANGE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 KT TO 60KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES 221...222 AND 220 AS WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND
HILLS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE VALUES IN EASTERN NORTON
SOUND THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WELL
OFF SHORE BUT CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. ON SHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KTS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF.
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
NEAR ICY CAPE AND AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR BARROW WITH 6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES
OFF SHORE TUESDAY. FETCH IS REASONABLE IN BOTH CASES HOWEVER WIND
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE WILL LIMIT HIGH SURF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT FLASHY RESPONSE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE SO NO SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER HYDRO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WILL LIKELY RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 011028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE DEPARTING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. CURRENT WINTER
DEPTH 500 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED 250 M NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL WOBBLE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT ABOUT 50
NM NORTH OF BARROW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN
MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TO BE 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A 516 DAM LOW.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WHICH IS NOW PLOWING ITS
WAY INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA. A 996 MB WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED NEAR PABT
MONDAY NIGHT AND PARC TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR AND STALLS EAST WEST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED UPSLOPE WILL
GENERATE HEAVY PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1
INCH OR MORE FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS
IN WESTERN ALASKA AND 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. WIDESPREAD
SWATH STORM TOTAL RAIN FALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS FORECAST
FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM DENALI NATIONAL
PARK TO FAIRBANKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY. AGAIN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
FOR AROUND 5000 FT TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3000 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP IN THE BROOKS RANGE FROM AROUND 3000 FT THIS
MORNING TO VALLEY LEVEL TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE BROOKS RANGE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 KT TO 60KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES 221...222 AND 220 AS WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND
HILLS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE VALUES IN EASTERN NORTON
SOUND THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WELL
OFF SHORE BUT CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. ON SHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KTS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF.
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
NEAR ICY CAPE AND AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR BARROW WITH 6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES
OFF SHORE TUESDAY. FETCH IS REASONABLE IN BOTH CASES HOWEVER WIND
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE WILL LIMIT HIGH SURF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT FLASHY RESPONSE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE SO NO SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER HYDRO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WILL LIKELY RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 011028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE DEPARTING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. CURRENT WINTER
DEPTH 500 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED 250 M NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL WOBBLE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT ABOUT 50
NM NORTH OF BARROW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN
MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TO BE 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A 516 DAM LOW.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WHICH IS NOW PLOWING ITS
WAY INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA. A 996 MB WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED NEAR PABT
MONDAY NIGHT AND PARC TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR AND STALLS EAST WEST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED UPSLOPE WILL
GENERATE HEAVY PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1
INCH OR MORE FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS
IN WESTERN ALASKA AND 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. WIDESPREAD
SWATH STORM TOTAL RAIN FALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS FORECAST
FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM DENALI NATIONAL
PARK TO FAIRBANKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY. AGAIN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
FOR AROUND 5000 FT TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3000 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP IN THE BROOKS RANGE FROM AROUND 3000 FT THIS
MORNING TO VALLEY LEVEL TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE BROOKS RANGE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 KT TO 60KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES 221...222 AND 220 AS WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND
HILLS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE VALUES IN EASTERN NORTON
SOUND THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WELL
OFF SHORE BUT CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. ON SHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KTS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF.
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
NEAR ICY CAPE AND AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR BARROW WITH 6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES
OFF SHORE TUESDAY. FETCH IS REASONABLE IN BOTH CASES HOWEVER WIND
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE WILL LIMIT HIGH SURF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT FLASHY RESPONSE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE SO NO SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER HYDRO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WILL LIKELY RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



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