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000
FXAK67 PAJK 220002
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A VIGOROUS LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA HAS
SPREAD ITS FRONTAL BAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND IS NOW IN THE
VICINITY OF ICY STRAIT, CONTINUING NORTHWARD. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
CELLS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ROTATING NORTHWARD. THERE WAS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF MARINE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, HAIDA
GWAII, HECATE STRAIT AND SOUTH TO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THINK THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPREADING NORTH AND OUT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL
AREAS.

THE LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER BEFORE IT PULLS AWAY THE SECOND WRAP
WILL GRAZE THE SOUTHERN COAST. AM EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER AND WINDS AS THE
LOW RETREATS WEST. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RECEDE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MODEL DIVERGENCE EARLY ON AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISCUSSED
ABOVE. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER, WITH THE
PARENT FILLING AND THE CHILD DEEPENING WHILE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST OUTER COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE VARIOUS LOWS AND
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR A CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TROPICAL STORM ANA. MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS VERY DISAPPOINTING WITH GFS KEEPING THE REMNANTS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND TRACKING THEM INTO WESTERN CONUS WHILE ECMWF WAS
TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DEEP SYSTEM RIGHT INTO THE EASTERN GULF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE STORM JUST
WEST OF HAWAII, IT DID NOT SEEM LIKELY THAT IT COULD GET DRIVEN
FAR ENOUGH NORTH IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES TO ENTER THE GULF.
SIMILAR THINKING BY WPC. 12Z ECMWF THEN CAME IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MORNING GFS AND WHILE THE GFS IS STILL
EXHIBITING SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY, THE AFTERNOON RUN
SUBSTANTIALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MORNING RUN.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PRESSURE AND WIND, THEN TRANSITIONED TO WPC. USED GFS, GEM,
AND ECMWF FOR POP/QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
BLENDING IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE OF THE EXISTING GRIDS. NO CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








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000
FXAK68 PAFC 212200
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

500 MB...THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE BRISTOL BAY CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS A
LOW CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES WEST AND ANCHORS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WED. THIS LOW THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ON THU AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES OVER WESTERN ALASKA. A WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA SETS UP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA
THU.

SURFACE...A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WAS EVIDENCED BY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND KENAI PEN THIS AFTERNOON. A
LARGE 970S MB LOW WAS PRESENT  OVER THE SOUTH GULF OF ALASKA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAIN LAND. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH WERE
EVIDENT OVER SW ALASKA. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION
WERE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF OPEN/CLOSED CELL CU WITH
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCES
COME IN TO PLAY WITH THE HANDLING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND IMPACTING THE SW MAINLAND THU. THE GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOW ON THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PUSHES A LITTLE TOO
MUCH WARM AIR INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND THU NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE
HEADS SOUTH AND BRINGS SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE WESTERN GULF/KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE BRISK GAP WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE GULF COAST AND
EASTERN KENAI PEN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF AND COPPER RIVER WED NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE...OTHERWISE THE
NEXT SHOT AT SNOW WILL BE ON FRI.


SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE DELTA THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...SPREADING SNOW INLAND WITH A
MIX ALONG THE COASTS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY SOME
ACROSS THE AK PEN WAS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH. INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH STRONG LOWS THROUGH GAPS IN
THE PEN ON WED.


BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY
THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE BERING WHILE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

RUN TO RUN GUIDANCE OF THE EXTENDED MODELS HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE RESIDUE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA. EARLIER EC MODELS WERE BRINGING THE
RESIDUE ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW INTO THE GULF OF AK ON MON...BUT
MORE RECENT RUNS ARE SENDING THE MOISTURE FIELD EAST...WITH A MUCH
WEAKER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON THROUGH WED.

WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
NORTHWEST AK WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND AK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A KAMCHATKA
LOW WILL SEND A FRONTAL COMPLEX ACROSS THE BERING TO WESTERN AK
SUN THROUGH WED.

THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE WPC SOLUTION...WHICH RELIED HEAVILY ON
THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST THAT PROVIDED SOME RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&


AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 171 172 173 174 178 179 185 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

$$

RMC/DS OCT 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 212200
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

500 MB...THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE BRISTOL BAY CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS A
LOW CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES WEST AND ANCHORS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WED. THIS LOW THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ON THU AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES OVER WESTERN ALASKA. A WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA SETS UP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA
THU.

SURFACE...A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WAS EVIDENCED BY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND KENAI PEN THIS AFTERNOON. A
LARGE 970S MB LOW WAS PRESENT  OVER THE SOUTH GULF OF ALASKA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAIN LAND. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH WERE
EVIDENT OVER SW ALASKA. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION
WERE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF OPEN/CLOSED CELL CU WITH
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCES
COME IN TO PLAY WITH THE HANDLING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND IMPACTING THE SW MAINLAND THU. THE GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOW ON THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PUSHES A LITTLE TOO
MUCH WARM AIR INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND THU NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE
HEADS SOUTH AND BRINGS SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE WESTERN GULF/KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE BRISK GAP WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE GULF COAST AND
EASTERN KENAI PEN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF AND COPPER RIVER WED NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE...OTHERWISE THE
NEXT SHOT AT SNOW WILL BE ON FRI.


SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE DELTA THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...SPREADING SNOW INLAND WITH A
MIX ALONG THE COASTS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY SOME
ACROSS THE AK PEN WAS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH. INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH STRONG LOWS THROUGH GAPS IN
THE PEN ON WED.


BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY
THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE BERING WHILE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

RUN TO RUN GUIDANCE OF THE EXTENDED MODELS HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE RESIDUE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA. EARLIER EC MODELS WERE BRINGING THE
RESIDUE ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW INTO THE GULF OF AK ON MON...BUT
MORE RECENT RUNS ARE SENDING THE MOISTURE FIELD EAST...WITH A MUCH
WEAKER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON THROUGH WED.

WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
NORTHWEST AK WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND AK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A KAMCHATKA
LOW WILL SEND A FRONTAL COMPLEX ACROSS THE BERING TO WESTERN AK
SUN THROUGH WED.

THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE WPC SOLUTION...WHICH RELIED HEAVILY ON
THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST THAT PROVIDED SOME RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&


AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 171 172 173 174 178 179 185 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

$$

RMC/DS OCT 14



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000
FXAK69 PAFG 211834
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1034 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM AND MID TERM. MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE IN THE LONG RANGE
WITH RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS EXHIBITING LARGE
DIFFERENCES FROM DIFFERENT MODEL FAMILIES.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 512 DAM LOW CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAK AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE
IT WILL ABSORB A 516 DAM LOW JUST OFF THE COAST FROM SITKA. THE
LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 52N AND 145W WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A 500 DAM LOW OVER SIBERIA MOVES EAST INTO
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BEFORE STALLING OVER THE BERING STRAIT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1041 MB HIGH REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 80N
AND 175W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A 970 MB LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO CREATE STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE. STRONG WIND HEADLINES REMAIN
IN THESE AREAS AS WIND GUSTS STILL REACHING INTO THE 40S AND NEAR
50 MPH...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
SLOPE. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
PLACE AS A 980 MB LOW WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE BERING STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AND WESTERN ALASKA ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS IT OUTRUNS ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A
THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP AS THE FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF SIBERIA MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH. LOW CEILINGS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SLOPE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 211352
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
552 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...WINDY AND WET SHORT RANGE FORECAST IN THE WORKS AS A
GALE FORCE LOW CHURNS ITS WAY INTO THE SE GULF TODAY. RIGHT NOW
THE LOW IS STILL DOWN BY 50N 140W WITH ITS FRONT EXTENDING E
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF TO NORTHERN HAIDA GWAII. THE FORWARD RAIN
BANDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH RECORDED AT
KETCHIKAN AND HYDABURG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. FARTHER NORTH THE
THERE ARE A FEW EFFECTS OF THE FRONT ALREADY BEING SEEN. THE FIRST IS
AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STOPPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND STALLING ANY FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING. THE OTHER EFFECT IS CHANGING THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO NORTH CAUSING WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN SOME INNER CHANNEL AREAS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE FRONT THE LOW IN
THE GULF SENDS OVER THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND WRAP THAT
WILL PLOW IN BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. THE MAIN FRONT WILL HEAD NORTH
OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY SPREADING WIND AND RAIN AS IT GOES. THE
LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 55
KT. STRONG WIND HEADLINES ARE UP FOR ZONES 23, 26, 27 AND 28 AS A
RESULT WITH GUSTS TO UP TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. GALES ARE ALSO UP FOR
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR THE SAME REASON.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A
SECOND HIGHER MAXIMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SECOND
WRAP COMES ASHORE. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TAKING ITS
FRONTS WITH IT.

FARTHER NORTH THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE PROBLEM
CHILD FOR WINDS TODAY. LYNN CANAL HAS JUST FLIPPED TO THE NORTH
ABOUT A HOUR AGO. THOSE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE FRONT COMING NORTH. THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH TODAY WILL BE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS FOR A MILD PRE-FRONTAL TAKU EVENT. NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THIS FEATURE AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG (AROUND 30 TO 40 KT) AND THE CRITICAL
LEVEL IS NOT VERY WELL DEFENDED (THERE IS NO WIND DIRECTION SHIFT
ALOFT MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE GENERAL E FLOW ALOFT). STILL GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE SE SYNOPTIC FLOW CUTS IT OFF AND FLIPS
WIND DIRECTION TO MORE PARALLEL BARRIER FLOW. A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA
FOR TODAY AS A RESULT.

AS FOR RAIN, NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP OUT OF THIS ONE.
LIMITING FACTORS ARE THAT MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS AIMED AT THE AREA
SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE PANHANDLE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE GULF WATERS AS A POCKET OF COOLER UPPER
LEVEL AIR AS WELL AS THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DESTABILIZE THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT DID DISPLAY SOME
DIFFERENCES IN LOW POSITION BY LATE TONIGHT. GFS SEEMED TO BE A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT CARRIED THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST LATE
TONIGHT THEN MOST OTHER MODELS. PLUS IT GENERALLY UNDER DID THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. GENERALLY FAVORED THE NAM
AND ECMWF FOR FORECAST GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...GALE FORCE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AK
GULF WILL HAVE PULLED TO THE WEST NEARING KODIAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSES MOVED THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST OF
HAIDA GWAII THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A CLOSED UPPER LOW ORIGINATING
OFF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE GULF AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN
FORMED A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE AK GULF BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AND AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
DETERMINING IF THIS FEATURE WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE WESTERLY
MID LATITUDE FLOW AND REACH THE AK GULF OR REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
MAIN FLOW AND MISS OUR AREA. THUS THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL SPREAD AND THUS LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

WHAT IS EXPECTED IS PRECIP AND WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION OFF HAIDA GWAII
IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM/GFS KEEPING THIS LOW SOUTH OFT THE AK
GULF RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM MOVE IT OFF
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COAST AND THUS MOVE IN MORE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME WHILE THE NAM DID INITIALIZE WELL IT ALSO IS
CURRENTLY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND THUS THE SPLIT BETWEEN THESE
MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DOES NOT WARRANT MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN EITHER SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE N AK GULF BY THE
WEEKEND AND THUS DIFFERENCES IN A POTENTIAL SURFACE CIRCULATION
FORMING IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRODUCING PRECIP OVER THE
PANHANDLE. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE ANA REMNANTS MAY HI THE AK GULF
MONDAY AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF OR KEEP TO THE SOUTH PER THE GFS.
HENCE KEEPING WITH AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN.

INITIALLY BLENDED IN SOME 00Z NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS SINCE THE NAM
INITIALIZED WELL AND SEEMED TO BE IN LINE WITH AT LEAST ONE MODEL
THROUGH MID RANGE. KEEP WITH WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
INITIALLY AND THE DROPS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK68 PAFC 211227
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY. A STRONG 155 KT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM ANCHORS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 42N...WITH A STRONG
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES (FROM GOES SATELLITE DATA) HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE
IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT LOW
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS BUILDING
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. EVENTUALLY...THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL
WRAP WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE BRISTOL
BAY LOW SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE BERING
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME REMAINING SMALL
DISCREPANCIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE GULF
LOW...BUT THEY ARE MUCH SMALLER AND LESS IMPACTFUL THAT PREVIOUS
DAYS. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FAVORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A BAND OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THE EASTERN KENAI...AND INTO INLAND
LOCATIONS FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE WESTERN KENAI. THIS BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS ENDING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EVENTUALLY THIS BAND WILL PIVOT OVER KODIAK
ISLAND THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTING MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND BEFORE DRYING OUT BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH MOVES IN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF WILL SET UP
A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS PEAKING GENERALLY AROUND LATE TUE EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DIMINISH BY MID
TO LATE MORNING...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY
THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE BERING WHILE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR AS BEEN THE
MOST SPORADIC WITH THIS FEATURE...DIGGING DEEP TROUGHS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRINGING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH MORE TYPICAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC
THIS MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY HEAVILY USES
ENSEMBLES (EC AND NAEFS)...WHICH CURRENTLY MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FUTURE RUNS (IN PARTICULAR OF THE EC) NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED HOWEVER...AS A DEEPER GULF LOW WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

-DEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 165 170-174 178-179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER OCT 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 211227
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY. A STRONG 155 KT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM ANCHORS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 42N...WITH A STRONG
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES (FROM GOES SATELLITE DATA) HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE
IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT LOW
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS BUILDING
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. EVENTUALLY...THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL
WRAP WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE BRISTOL
BAY LOW SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE BERING
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME REMAINING SMALL
DISCREPANCIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE GULF
LOW...BUT THEY ARE MUCH SMALLER AND LESS IMPACTFUL THAT PREVIOUS
DAYS. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FAVORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A BAND OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THE EASTERN KENAI...AND INTO INLAND
LOCATIONS FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE WESTERN KENAI. THIS BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS ENDING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EVENTUALLY THIS BAND WILL PIVOT OVER KODIAK
ISLAND THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTING MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND BEFORE DRYING OUT BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH MOVES IN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF WILL SET UP
A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS PEAKING GENERALLY AROUND LATE TUE EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DIMINISH BY MID
TO LATE MORNING...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY
THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE BERING WHILE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR AS BEEN THE
MOST SPORADIC WITH THIS FEATURE...DIGGING DEEP TROUGHS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRINGING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH MORE TYPICAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC
THIS MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY HEAVILY USES
ENSEMBLES (EC AND NAEFS)...WHICH CURRENTLY MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FUTURE RUNS (IN PARTICULAR OF THE EC) NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED HOWEVER...AS A DEEPER GULF LOW WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

-DEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 165 170-174 178-179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 211059
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST 06Z SURFACE. CONTINUE TO HANDLE
FEATURES WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE
BEYOND DAY 5. WILL NUDGE CURRENT FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...512 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL COMBINE WITH A 516 DAM LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE GULF WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST OVER
THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 535
DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN HIGH IN THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A 527 DAM
LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 496 DAM LOW
OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFT OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM
LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR COOL 4
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS NEXT 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN STEADY INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB...THEN MOVES
WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A TROUGH LYING OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART WITH THE TROUGH
FILLING BY LATE MORNING AND THE LOW BEING ABSORBED BY A 973MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SPIN
BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
EARLY THURSDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
EVENING THEN DEEPEN TO 998MB OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC TO A 1021MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THEN SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 996MB
LOW IN KAMCHATKA BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ANADYR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 986MB. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY AND DISSIPATING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. NO BREAK IN THE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD TOP PHASE FROM GOES AT
210815Z INDICATES MOST AREAS EAST OF BARROW HAVE ONLY ICE...THIS
INDICATES TO ME LESS CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA
RIGHT NOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA FLOW FALLS APART AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TODAY EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BERING STRAIT OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL END LATE
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL UP TO AN INCH LOCALLY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INLAND
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SHORTWAVE ALOFT SPINNING UP OVER
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND KICK OFF
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. COULD SEE A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. STILL MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THAT WILL NOT FALL APART UNTIL WEDNESDAY
SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON
SUMMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. A SLOW COOL DOWN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 211059
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST 06Z SURFACE. CONTINUE TO HANDLE
FEATURES WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE
BEYOND DAY 5. WILL NUDGE CURRENT FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...512 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL COMBINE WITH A 516 DAM LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE GULF WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST OVER
THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 535
DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN HIGH IN THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A 527 DAM
LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 496 DAM LOW
OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFT OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM
LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR COOL 4
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS NEXT 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN STEADY INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB...THEN MOVES
WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A TROUGH LYING OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART WITH THE TROUGH
FILLING BY LATE MORNING AND THE LOW BEING ABSORBED BY A 973MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SPIN
BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
EARLY THURSDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
EVENING THEN DEEPEN TO 998MB OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC TO A 1021MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THEN SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 996MB
LOW IN KAMCHATKA BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ANADYR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 986MB. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY AND DISSIPATING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. NO BREAK IN THE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD TOP PHASE FROM GOES AT
210815Z INDICATES MOST AREAS EAST OF BARROW HAVE ONLY ICE...THIS
INDICATES TO ME LESS CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA
RIGHT NOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA FLOW FALLS APART AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TODAY EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BERING STRAIT OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL END LATE
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL UP TO AN INCH LOCALLY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INLAND
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SHORTWAVE ALOFT SPINNING UP OVER
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND KICK OFF
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. COULD SEE A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. STILL MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THAT WILL NOT FALL APART UNTIL WEDNESDAY
SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON
SUMMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. A SLOW COOL DOWN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 211059
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST 06Z SURFACE. CONTINUE TO HANDLE
FEATURES WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE
BEYOND DAY 5. WILL NUDGE CURRENT FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...512 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL COMBINE WITH A 516 DAM LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE GULF WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST OVER
THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 535
DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN HIGH IN THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A 527 DAM
LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 496 DAM LOW
OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFT OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM
LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR COOL 4
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS NEXT 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN STEADY INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB...THEN MOVES
WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A TROUGH LYING OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART WITH THE TROUGH
FILLING BY LATE MORNING AND THE LOW BEING ABSORBED BY A 973MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SPIN
BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
EARLY THURSDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
EVENING THEN DEEPEN TO 998MB OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC TO A 1021MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THEN SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 996MB
LOW IN KAMCHATKA BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ANADYR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 986MB. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY AND DISSIPATING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. NO BREAK IN THE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD TOP PHASE FROM GOES AT
210815Z INDICATES MOST AREAS EAST OF BARROW HAVE ONLY ICE...THIS
INDICATES TO ME LESS CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA
RIGHT NOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA FLOW FALLS APART AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TODAY EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BERING STRAIT OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL END LATE
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL UP TO AN INCH LOCALLY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INLAND
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SHORTWAVE ALOFT SPINNING UP OVER
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND KICK OFF
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. COULD SEE A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. STILL MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THAT WILL NOT FALL APART UNTIL WEDNESDAY
SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON
SUMMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. A SLOW COOL DOWN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 202337
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE
PANHANDLE AS A TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TODAY. LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED SOUTH
OF US IN HECATE STRAIT...BUT A RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. BUILDING
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME STABILIZING CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
THIS RISK TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED
IN...PRESSURE ROSE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THUS ALLOWED LYNN
CANAL TO RISE TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE ISOBARS
RE-TILT NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL OUTER GULF, WINDS WILL LARGELY FLIP NORTH AND BEGIN
STRENGTHENING INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THIS GALE FORCE LOW IN THE OUTER GULF WILL CURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TO LIE SQUARELY IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY TUESDAY. GALES
WILL SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS 43 AND WILL PENETRATE THE INSIDE IN
BOTH CLARENCE STRAIT BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN
CHATHAM BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL
BEGIN EXPERIENCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA WILL SEE WINDS RISE A FEW HOURS LATER
TUESDAY.

THE LOBE OF VORTICITY SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL USHER A WAVE OF
SORTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW AND SHOULD HELP INDUCE SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE GUSTINESS OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF CLOSE TO 30 MPH...ALSO RAISED THE JUNEAU DOWNTOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURE TO CAPTURE DOWNSLOPING COMPRESSIONAL TEMPERATURE
RISES. CERTAIN RAIN SHOULD HOLD SOUTH OF ANGOON/SITKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DECORATE THE NORTH WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE.
YAKUTAT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT. ADDED
SOME SNOW MIXING IN TO YAKUTAT LATE, BUT MORE LIKELY TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW UNTIL AFTER SHOWERS HAVE ENDED.

SOME THOUGHT GIVEN TO PRECIPITATION CHARACTER. CONVECTION
PARAMETERS OVER THE GULF UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THOUGH TEXTBOOK PARADIGMS URGE STRATIFORM
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IN ACTUALITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A
COMPLEX HYBRID STABILITY. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...WENT
CONVECTIVE...WHERE NOT WENT STRATIFORM...GENERALLY OVER THE LAND.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS SHOWERS DIMINISH AND CLOUDS
BEGIN SHOWING BREAKS, BUT FELT WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG OVER THE
INSIDE WATERS ITSELF SO CONFINED IT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS.

USED GUIDANCE FROM NAM EARLY...BUT AS IT BEGAN TO BECOME THE ODD
MODEL OUT WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF...WAS INCLINED TO FOLLOW A
GEM/ECMWF CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...THE MAIN LOW FOR THE INCOMING SYSTEM LOOPS AROUND THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MID WEEK AND DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HINT AT SMALL WAVE MOVING UPTO
TOWARDS THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AREA THU HELPING TO PULL THE
OLD LOW SOUTHWARD. EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ALONG THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
THAT WILL DEFLECT AN RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. IT IS LAST LOW THAT LOOKS TO HAVE ABSORBED THE REMAINS OF
ANA CURRENTLY PASSING BY HAWAII.

BELIEVE THAT THE GALE FORCE WINDS AND ISOLATE THUNDER FROM TUESDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING AND TAPERING
OFF. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACTING SIMILAR TO
SHOWERS THUS WAS MY REASONS FOR MAKING THE PRECIPITATION THAT TYPE.
THE LOW WHEN IT DOES FINALLY START TO PULL OF THE OF THE GULF WILL
BE PULLING SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR OUT OVER THE GULF
MAINTAINING A GOOD SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY GOOD TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND LOWER NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES HANDLING THE ANA
SYSTEM.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK68 PAFC 202154
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
154 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TROF AXIS FROM BRISTOL BAY UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PULL WESTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MID DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
TROF AXIS SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND FOX ISLANDS THEN SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC BY
10 PM MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS MOST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
NOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
EASTWARD MONDAY PASSING KODIAK ISLAND BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING WED. UPPER RIDGE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING ALONG
THE WEST COAST BY WED EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE
SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AS A STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST JET DRIVES INTO
THE BERING AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR EXPANDS OVER THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS LOOK GOOD OUT WEST AND ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES AND ORIENTATION OF THE PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE 970 MB STORM NOW NEAR 51N 147W MOVING NORTH INTO
THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TRACK APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WED AFTERNOON THE THREE MODELS
SHOW THE AVERAGE LOW CENTER LONGITUDE POSITION ROUGHLY AROUND 145W
TO 148W WITH THE NAM SHOWING A 978 MB CENTER AT 56N...THE EC A 978
MB CENTER AT 54N AND THE GFS A 977 MB CENTER AT 52N. THE WAVES
FORMING FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOW EVEN MORE
DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND INTERMINTANT AS THE TROF
MOVES INLAND. A COUPLE OF MORE BANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUE. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE BERING SEA BY TUE
EVENING.




&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SKIRTING THE SIBERIAN COAST THAT WILL
FIRST BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR AS BEEN THE
MOST SPORADIC WITH THIS FEATURE...DIGGING DEEP TROUGHS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRINGING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH MORE TYPICAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC
THIS MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY HEAVILY USES
ENSEMBLES (EC AND NAEFS)...WHICH CURRENTLY MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FUTURE RUNS (IN PARTICULAR OF THE EC) NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED HOWEVER...AS A DEEPER GULF LOW WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185. FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$
OCT 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 202154
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
154 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TROF AXIS FROM BRISTOL BAY UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PULL WESTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MID DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
TROF AXIS SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND FOX ISLANDS THEN SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC BY
10 PM MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS MOST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
NOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
EASTWARD MONDAY PASSING KODIAK ISLAND BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING WED. UPPER RIDGE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING ALONG
THE WEST COAST BY WED EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE
SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AS A STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST JET DRIVES INTO
THE BERING AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR EXPANDS OVER THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS LOOK GOOD OUT WEST AND ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES AND ORIENTATION OF THE PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE 970 MB STORM NOW NEAR 51N 147W MOVING NORTH INTO
THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TRACK APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WED AFTERNOON THE THREE MODELS
SHOW THE AVERAGE LOW CENTER LONGITUDE POSITION ROUGHLY AROUND 145W
TO 148W WITH THE NAM SHOWING A 978 MB CENTER AT 56N...THE EC A 978
MB CENTER AT 54N AND THE GFS A 977 MB CENTER AT 52N. THE WAVES
FORMING FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOW EVEN MORE
DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND INTERMINTANT AS THE TROF
MOVES INLAND. A COUPLE OF MORE BANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUE. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE BERING SEA BY TUE
EVENING.




&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SKIRTING THE SIBERIAN COAST THAT WILL
FIRST BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR AS BEEN THE
MOST SPORADIC WITH THIS FEATURE...DIGGING DEEP TROUGHS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRINGING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH MORE TYPICAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC
THIS MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY HEAVILY USES
ENSEMBLES (EC AND NAEFS)...WHICH CURRENTLY MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FUTURE RUNS (IN PARTICULAR OF THE EC) NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED HOWEVER...AS A DEEPER GULF LOW WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185. FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$
OCT 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 202154
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
154 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TROF AXIS FROM BRISTOL BAY UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PULL WESTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MID DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
TROF AXIS SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND FOX ISLANDS THEN SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC BY
10 PM MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS MOST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
NOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
EASTWARD MONDAY PASSING KODIAK ISLAND BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING WED. UPPER RIDGE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING ALONG
THE WEST COAST BY WED EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE
SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AS A STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST JET DRIVES INTO
THE BERING AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR EXPANDS OVER THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS LOOK GOOD OUT WEST AND ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES AND ORIENTATION OF THE PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE 970 MB STORM NOW NEAR 51N 147W MOVING NORTH INTO
THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TRACK APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WED AFTERNOON THE THREE MODELS
SHOW THE AVERAGE LOW CENTER LONGITUDE POSITION ROUGHLY AROUND 145W
TO 148W WITH THE NAM SHOWING A 978 MB CENTER AT 56N...THE EC A 978
MB CENTER AT 54N AND THE GFS A 977 MB CENTER AT 52N. THE WAVES
FORMING FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOW EVEN MORE
DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND INTERMINTANT AS THE TROF
MOVES INLAND. A COUPLE OF MORE BANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUE. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE BERING SEA BY TUE
EVENING.




&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SKIRTING THE SIBERIAN COAST THAT WILL
FIRST BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR AS BEEN THE
MOST SPORADIC WITH THIS FEATURE...DIGGING DEEP TROUGHS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRINGING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH MORE TYPICAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC
THIS MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY HEAVILY USES
ENSEMBLES (EC AND NAEFS)...WHICH CURRENTLY MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FUTURE RUNS (IN PARTICULAR OF THE EC) NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED HOWEVER...AS A DEEPER GULF LOW WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185. FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$
OCT 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 202154
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
154 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TROF AXIS FROM BRISTOL BAY UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PULL WESTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MID DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
TROF AXIS SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND FOX ISLANDS THEN SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC BY
10 PM MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS MOST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
NOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
EASTWARD MONDAY PASSING KODIAK ISLAND BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING WED. UPPER RIDGE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING ALONG
THE WEST COAST BY WED EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE
SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AS A STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST JET DRIVES INTO
THE BERING AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR EXPANDS OVER THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS LOOK GOOD OUT WEST AND ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES AND ORIENTATION OF THE PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE 970 MB STORM NOW NEAR 51N 147W MOVING NORTH INTO
THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TRACK APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WED AFTERNOON THE THREE MODELS
SHOW THE AVERAGE LOW CENTER LONGITUDE POSITION ROUGHLY AROUND 145W
TO 148W WITH THE NAM SHOWING A 978 MB CENTER AT 56N...THE EC A 978
MB CENTER AT 54N AND THE GFS A 977 MB CENTER AT 52N. THE WAVES
FORMING FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOW EVEN MORE
DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND INTERMINTANT AS THE TROF
MOVES INLAND. A COUPLE OF MORE BANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUE. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE BERING SEA BY TUE
EVENING.




&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SKIRTING THE SIBERIAN COAST THAT WILL
FIRST BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR AS BEEN THE
MOST SPORADIC WITH THIS FEATURE...DIGGING DEEP TROUGHS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRINGING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH MORE TYPICAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC
THIS MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY HEAVILY USES
ENSEMBLES (EC AND NAEFS)...WHICH CURRENTLY MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FUTURE RUNS (IN PARTICULAR OF THE EC) NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED HOWEVER...AS A DEEPER GULF LOW WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185. FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$
OCT 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 202154
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
154 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TROF AXIS FROM BRISTOL BAY UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PULL WESTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MID DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
TROF AXIS SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND FOX ISLANDS THEN SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC BY
10 PM MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS MOST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
NOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
EASTWARD MONDAY PASSING KODIAK ISLAND BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING WED. UPPER RIDGE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING ALONG
THE WEST COAST BY WED EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE
SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AS A STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST JET DRIVES INTO
THE BERING AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR EXPANDS OVER THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS LOOK GOOD OUT WEST AND ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES AND ORIENTATION OF THE PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE 970 MB STORM NOW NEAR 51N 147W MOVING NORTH INTO
THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TRACK APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WED AFTERNOON THE THREE MODELS
SHOW THE AVERAGE LOW CENTER LONGITUDE POSITION ROUGHLY AROUND 145W
TO 148W WITH THE NAM SHOWING A 978 MB CENTER AT 56N...THE EC A 978
MB CENTER AT 54N AND THE GFS A 977 MB CENTER AT 52N. THE WAVES
FORMING FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOW EVEN MORE
DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND INTERMINTANT AS THE TROF
MOVES INLAND. A COUPLE OF MORE BANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUE. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE BERING SEA BY TUE
EVENING.




&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SKIRTING THE SIBERIAN COAST THAT WILL
FIRST BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR AS BEEN THE
MOST SPORADIC WITH THIS FEATURE...DIGGING DEEP TROUGHS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRINGING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH MORE TYPICAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC
THIS MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY HEAVILY USES
ENSEMBLES (EC AND NAEFS)...WHICH CURRENTLY MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FUTURE RUNS (IN PARTICULAR OF THE EC) NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED HOWEVER...AS A DEEPER GULF LOW WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185. FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$
OCT 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 201345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONSTANTLY SHIFTING WINDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE
RULE OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE COMPACT LOW THAT
BROUGHT THE BRIEF BURST OF WIND LAST EVENING HAS MOVED INTO THE
YUKON THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT IT KICKED UP ARE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND STARTING TO SWITCH BACK TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AS THE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE A
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35 KT IS CREATING SOME GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS FOR THE SHOWERS, THEY ARE WIDE SPREAD ACCORDING
TO THE RADAR WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTERMIXED FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND GULF.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE SHORT RANGE IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE OUTER COAST WILL MOVE NE OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY.
EVENTUALLY ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
TAPERS OFF TODAY AS WELL AS THE TROUGH TAKES THE WEDGE OF COOLER
AIR AND VORTICITY ALOFT INTO CANADA ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. OVERALL RAINFALL SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE THE COMPLICATING FACTOR MOSTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THEY WILL BE SWITCHING DIRECTION QUITE A FEW TIMES PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MOST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT
SOUTH BUT LYNN CANAL WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE WINDS TURN
NORTH THIS MORNING DUE TO THE GULF TROUGH MOVING CLOSER. THEY WILL
THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND EVEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT FOR NORTHERN LYNN AS THE
TROUGH REFORMS IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING AGAIN TO THE NORTH AS
THE NEXT MAJOR GULF LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PANHANDLE. FARTHER
SOUTH THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. AS FOR EAST/WEST CHANNELS, THEY START OUT MOSTLY EAST
BUT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE SWITCHING AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING BACK TO EAST DUE ONCE
AGAIN TO THE NEXT LOW`S INFLUENCE.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT LOW, IT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AFTER STRENGTHENING TO 972 MB DUE TO SITTING
UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT JET STREAK. WE CATCH IT JUST
AS IT STARTS TO SEPARATE FROM THAT JET STREAK AND TURN NORTH. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH, THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WIND SPEED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS IT DIRECTS A 50 TO 55 KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THAT AREA. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SE GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT AS A RESULT AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES
HAVE ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO
REACH 45 MPH. RAIN WILL ALSO BE STARTING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FRONTAL RAINBANDS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY NOT GET ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. DISCARDED THE GFS AS IT WAS TOO WEAK WITH
THE LOW THAT WENT THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LIKED THE NAM AS IT DID THE
BEST REPRESENTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GEM AND ECMWF WERE IN SECOND PLACE AS THEY HAD THE SAME
IDEA BUT WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN AK GULF
WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THEN EXPECTED TO PULL SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE VANCOUVER COAST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TRACK WITH FRONTAL BANDS MOVING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PULLING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF MOVING
EASTWARD, HOWEVER AN UPPER LOW DROPS FROM THE INTERIOR INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND EVENTUALLY THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
LARGE SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY DUE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE MID LATITUDE FLOW AND MERGING WITH
A WAVE THAT DEVELOPED OVER KAMCHATKA.

STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WAS THE FIRST AND SECOND WRAPS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL PANHANDLE AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 TO
55 MPH. EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GUST IN THE 40 TO 5O KT RANGE DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
CANADA. NEW MODEL RUNS HAD THE LOW BIT DEEPER SO WINDS WERE NUDGED
UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS OF NOW WINDS SHOW A QUICK DROP OFF
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND. THE BANDED NATURE OF LOW MEANS PRECIPITATION
MAY NOT BE A STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
ON PRECIPITATION TIMING ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MODEL SPREAD ON THE LOW
POSITION STARTS TO INCREASE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BETWEEN 0 AND 2 C. LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN FORM THE INTERIOR COLDER AIR MASS MOVES
IN SO EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTH COASTAL
PANHANDLE WITH POSSIBLE SNOW FALL FOR THESE AREAS.

GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE NAM/GEM FOR PRESSURE. THE ECMWF / GFS
ARE NOT FAR OFF BUT DO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. BY WEDNESDAY MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WITH ECMWF
BECOMING THE FIRST OUTLIER. WENT WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED RANGE USING A BLEND OF WPC. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE INITIALLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
THE BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENCE DOES NOT IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027-
     028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-031>035-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 201345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONSTANTLY SHIFTING WINDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE
RULE OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE COMPACT LOW THAT
BROUGHT THE BRIEF BURST OF WIND LAST EVENING HAS MOVED INTO THE
YUKON THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT IT KICKED UP ARE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND STARTING TO SWITCH BACK TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AS THE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE A
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35 KT IS CREATING SOME GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS FOR THE SHOWERS, THEY ARE WIDE SPREAD ACCORDING
TO THE RADAR WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTERMIXED FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND GULF.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE SHORT RANGE IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE OUTER COAST WILL MOVE NE OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY.
EVENTUALLY ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
TAPERS OFF TODAY AS WELL AS THE TROUGH TAKES THE WEDGE OF COOLER
AIR AND VORTICITY ALOFT INTO CANADA ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. OVERALL RAINFALL SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE THE COMPLICATING FACTOR MOSTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THEY WILL BE SWITCHING DIRECTION QUITE A FEW TIMES PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MOST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT
SOUTH BUT LYNN CANAL WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE WINDS TURN
NORTH THIS MORNING DUE TO THE GULF TROUGH MOVING CLOSER. THEY WILL
THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND EVEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT FOR NORTHERN LYNN AS THE
TROUGH REFORMS IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING AGAIN TO THE NORTH AS
THE NEXT MAJOR GULF LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PANHANDLE. FARTHER
SOUTH THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. AS FOR EAST/WEST CHANNELS, THEY START OUT MOSTLY EAST
BUT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE SWITCHING AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING BACK TO EAST DUE ONCE
AGAIN TO THE NEXT LOW`S INFLUENCE.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT LOW, IT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AFTER STRENGTHENING TO 972 MB DUE TO SITTING
UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT JET STREAK. WE CATCH IT JUST
AS IT STARTS TO SEPARATE FROM THAT JET STREAK AND TURN NORTH. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH, THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WIND SPEED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS IT DIRECTS A 50 TO 55 KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THAT AREA. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SE GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT AS A RESULT AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES
HAVE ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO
REACH 45 MPH. RAIN WILL ALSO BE STARTING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FRONTAL RAINBANDS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY NOT GET ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. DISCARDED THE GFS AS IT WAS TOO WEAK WITH
THE LOW THAT WENT THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LIKED THE NAM AS IT DID THE
BEST REPRESENTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GEM AND ECMWF WERE IN SECOND PLACE AS THEY HAD THE SAME
IDEA BUT WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN AK GULF
WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THEN EXPECTED TO PULL SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE VANCOUVER COAST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TRACK WITH FRONTAL BANDS MOVING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PULLING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF MOVING
EASTWARD, HOWEVER AN UPPER LOW DROPS FROM THE INTERIOR INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND EVENTUALLY THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
LARGE SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY DUE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE MID LATITUDE FLOW AND MERGING WITH
A WAVE THAT DEVELOPED OVER KAMCHATKA.

STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WAS THE FIRST AND SECOND WRAPS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL PANHANDLE AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 TO
55 MPH. EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GUST IN THE 40 TO 5O KT RANGE DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
CANADA. NEW MODEL RUNS HAD THE LOW BIT DEEPER SO WINDS WERE NUDGED
UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS OF NOW WINDS SHOW A QUICK DROP OFF
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND. THE BANDED NATURE OF LOW MEANS PRECIPITATION
MAY NOT BE A STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
ON PRECIPITATION TIMING ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MODEL SPREAD ON THE LOW
POSITION STARTS TO INCREASE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BETWEEN 0 AND 2 C. LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN FORM THE INTERIOR COLDER AIR MASS MOVES
IN SO EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTH COASTAL
PANHANDLE WITH POSSIBLE SNOW FALL FOR THESE AREAS.

GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE NAM/GEM FOR PRESSURE. THE ECMWF / GFS
ARE NOT FAR OFF BUT DO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. BY WEDNESDAY MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WITH ECMWF
BECOMING THE FIRST OUTLIER. WENT WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED RANGE USING A BLEND OF WPC. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE INITIALLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
THE BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENCE DOES NOT IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027-
     028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-031>035-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






000
FXAK68 PAFC 201317
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

NUMEROUS UPPER LOWS AND SHORTWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ARE
DOMINATING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER IS IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY...WITH TWO
BASAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG ITS PERIPHERY NEAR 50N...ONE SOUTH
OF ADAK AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK. THESE TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
PROPAGATING ALONG A STRONG 160 KT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM...FORMING ALONG A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE AIDED BY THE
ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO A STRONG NEAR
970 HPA LOW IN THE GULF AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
DIVING SOUTH FROM THE BERING.

IN THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA...A WARM FRONT/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
IS TRACKING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING...WITH A
SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FORMING ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. COOLING CLOUD
TOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTH CORRELATE
TO INCREASING MASS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK...BUT REMAIN IN POORER
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF...AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SUPERIOR IN SIMULATING THE CURRENT DEVELOPING WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...AND WILL BE UTILIZED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST.
THE CANADIAN GDPS IS FAVORED FOR THE DEVELOPING STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AS IT REPRESENTED A
GOOD MIDDLE GROUND IN STRENGTH AND TRACK BETWEEN THE DISPARATE
ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON IS UNFOLDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN
ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND UP TO 7 ALONG THE HILLSIDE. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING BEFORE
ACTIVITY TAPERS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
DRASTIC CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND
THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE COPPER
BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW WILL WRAP BACK AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
ACTIVITY OVER ANCHORAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER GULF LOW MOVES NORTH...SETTING UP A DRIER
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND THE REGION.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLIEST FROM THE ALASKA RANGE HEADING
WEST...WITH SNOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW THEN SETS UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS GUSTY NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE COLD AIR
TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH MID WEEK...PRODUCING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT...AS A LOW
SKIRTING THE EASTERN SIBERIAN COAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING THURSDAY....THEN SPREAD
ONTO THE MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THIS
SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...LEAVING THE MAINLAND GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

-DEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER OCT 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 201317
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

NUMEROUS UPPER LOWS AND SHORTWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ARE
DOMINATING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER IS IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY...WITH TWO
BASAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG ITS PERIPHERY NEAR 50N...ONE SOUTH
OF ADAK AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK. THESE TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
PROPAGATING ALONG A STRONG 160 KT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM...FORMING ALONG A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE AIDED BY THE
ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO A STRONG NEAR
970 HPA LOW IN THE GULF AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
DIVING SOUTH FROM THE BERING.

IN THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA...A WARM FRONT/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
IS TRACKING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING...WITH A
SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FORMING ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. COOLING CLOUD
TOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTH CORRELATE
TO INCREASING MASS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK...BUT REMAIN IN POORER
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF...AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SUPERIOR IN SIMULATING THE CURRENT DEVELOPING WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...AND WILL BE UTILIZED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST.
THE CANADIAN GDPS IS FAVORED FOR THE DEVELOPING STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AS IT REPRESENTED A
GOOD MIDDLE GROUND IN STRENGTH AND TRACK BETWEEN THE DISPARATE
ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON IS UNFOLDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN
ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND UP TO 7 ALONG THE HILLSIDE. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING BEFORE
ACTIVITY TAPERS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
DRASTIC CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND
THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE COPPER
BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW WILL WRAP BACK AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
ACTIVITY OVER ANCHORAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER GULF LOW MOVES NORTH...SETTING UP A DRIER
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND THE REGION.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLIEST FROM THE ALASKA RANGE HEADING
WEST...WITH SNOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW THEN SETS UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS GUSTY NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE COLD AIR
TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH MID WEEK...PRODUCING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT...AS A LOW
SKIRTING THE EASTERN SIBERIAN COAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING THURSDAY....THEN SPREAD
ONTO THE MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THIS
SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...LEAVING THE MAINLAND GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

-DEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER OCT 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 201317
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

NUMEROUS UPPER LOWS AND SHORTWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ARE
DOMINATING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER IS IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY...WITH TWO
BASAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG ITS PERIPHERY NEAR 50N...ONE SOUTH
OF ADAK AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK. THESE TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
PROPAGATING ALONG A STRONG 160 KT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM...FORMING ALONG A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE AIDED BY THE
ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO A STRONG NEAR
970 HPA LOW IN THE GULF AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
DIVING SOUTH FROM THE BERING.

IN THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA...A WARM FRONT/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
IS TRACKING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING...WITH A
SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FORMING ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. COOLING CLOUD
TOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTH CORRELATE
TO INCREASING MASS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK...BUT REMAIN IN POORER
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF...AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SUPERIOR IN SIMULATING THE CURRENT DEVELOPING WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...AND WILL BE UTILIZED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST.
THE CANADIAN GDPS IS FAVORED FOR THE DEVELOPING STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AS IT REPRESENTED A
GOOD MIDDLE GROUND IN STRENGTH AND TRACK BETWEEN THE DISPARATE
ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON IS UNFOLDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN
ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND UP TO 7 ALONG THE HILLSIDE. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING BEFORE
ACTIVITY TAPERS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
DRASTIC CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND
THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE COPPER
BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW WILL WRAP BACK AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
ACTIVITY OVER ANCHORAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER GULF LOW MOVES NORTH...SETTING UP A DRIER
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND THE REGION.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLIEST FROM THE ALASKA RANGE HEADING
WEST...WITH SNOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW THEN SETS UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS GUSTY NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE COLD AIR
TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH MID WEEK...PRODUCING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT...AS A LOW
SKIRTING THE EASTERN SIBERIAN COAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING THURSDAY....THEN SPREAD
ONTO THE MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THIS
SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...LEAVING THE MAINLAND GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

-DEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER OCT 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 201317
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

NUMEROUS UPPER LOWS AND SHORTWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ARE
DOMINATING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER IS IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY...WITH TWO
BASAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG ITS PERIPHERY NEAR 50N...ONE SOUTH
OF ADAK AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK. THESE TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
PROPAGATING ALONG A STRONG 160 KT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM...FORMING ALONG A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE AIDED BY THE
ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO A STRONG NEAR
970 HPA LOW IN THE GULF AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
DIVING SOUTH FROM THE BERING.

IN THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA...A WARM FRONT/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
IS TRACKING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING...WITH A
SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FORMING ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. COOLING CLOUD
TOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTH CORRELATE
TO INCREASING MASS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK...BUT REMAIN IN POORER
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF...AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SUPERIOR IN SIMULATING THE CURRENT DEVELOPING WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...AND WILL BE UTILIZED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST.
THE CANADIAN GDPS IS FAVORED FOR THE DEVELOPING STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AS IT REPRESENTED A
GOOD MIDDLE GROUND IN STRENGTH AND TRACK BETWEEN THE DISPARATE
ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON IS UNFOLDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN
ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND UP TO 7 ALONG THE HILLSIDE. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING BEFORE
ACTIVITY TAPERS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
DRASTIC CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ANCHORAGE PROPER...AND
THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE COPPER
BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW WILL WRAP BACK AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
ACTIVITY OVER ANCHORAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER GULF LOW MOVES NORTH...SETTING UP A DRIER
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND THE REGION.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLIEST FROM THE ALASKA RANGE HEADING
WEST...WITH SNOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW THEN SETS UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS GUSTY NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE COLD AIR
TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH MID WEEK...PRODUCING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT...AS A LOW
SKIRTING THE EASTERN SIBERIAN COAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING THURSDAY....THEN SPREAD
ONTO THE MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THIS
SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...LEAVING THE MAINLAND GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

-DEK

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 201027
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN HANDLING FEATURES WELL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR
SO IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY DO HAVE ISSUES AS YOU GET OUT INTO THE
MID RANGE AS THEY DIVERGE GREATLY BY SUNDAY. HANDLING OF THE LOW
ON THURSDAY IS REASONABLE SO WILL USE A BLEND NUDGED TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
PATTERN OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AS THE 516 DAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH THEN EAST AND MERGES WITH A 514 DAM LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO
EAST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING TUESDAY. RIDGE LYING NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A 535 DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH A 527 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A SLOW COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT WEAKENS TO 1035MB. 980MB LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THEN BE
ABSORBED BY A 982MB THAT IS 400NM SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE 200NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WOBBLE WEST TO 300NM SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO THE GULF
OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER TH ARCTIC COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT HANGING ON OVER THE ARCTIC
INTO FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 50
MPH. WINDS ON THE COAST DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HANGING
ON INTO FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGE IN THE
FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...PATCHY
FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...BUT FALL A DEGREE OF TWO THROUGH THE WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT
OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY POSSIBLE.
AREAS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA COULD SEE AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOW...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INTERIOR AREAS SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH MID WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING PRODUCING FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS
BY DAYS END. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST ON HILLS AND DOWN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TODAY INTO TUESDAY THEN A SLOW
COOL DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A 994MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE GULF OF ANADYR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD PUSH
WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 201027
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN HANDLING FEATURES WELL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR
SO IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY DO HAVE ISSUES AS YOU GET OUT INTO THE
MID RANGE AS THEY DIVERGE GREATLY BY SUNDAY. HANDLING OF THE LOW
ON THURSDAY IS REASONABLE SO WILL USE A BLEND NUDGED TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
PATTERN OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AS THE 516 DAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH THEN EAST AND MERGES WITH A 514 DAM LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO
EAST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING TUESDAY. RIDGE LYING NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A 535 DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH A 527 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A SLOW COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT WEAKENS TO 1035MB. 980MB LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THEN BE
ABSORBED BY A 982MB THAT IS 400NM SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE 200NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WOBBLE WEST TO 300NM SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO THE GULF
OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER TH ARCTIC COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT HANGING ON OVER THE ARCTIC
INTO FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 50
MPH. WINDS ON THE COAST DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HANGING
ON INTO FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGE IN THE
FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...PATCHY
FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...BUT FALL A DEGREE OF TWO THROUGH THE WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT
OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY POSSIBLE.
AREAS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA COULD SEE AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOW...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INTERIOR AREAS SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH MID WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING PRODUCING FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS
BY DAYS END. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST ON HILLS AND DOWN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TODAY INTO TUESDAY THEN A SLOW
COOL DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A 994MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE GULF OF ANADYR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD PUSH
WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14



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