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000
FXAK69 PAFG 011144
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

UPPER AIR...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA
TODAY. A SMOOTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL BUILD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM DALL POINT TO THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD BY 3 AM MON. BY 3AM TUE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE
RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON AND
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY 3 AM WED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA BY 3 AM TUE AND THEN SPLIT. MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ON INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA TUE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF
THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
BY 3 AM THU. A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...NUMBER 4 IN THE CURRENT SERIES...IS LIKELY
TO BE A STRONG ONE...CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM. CURRENT MODELS DIFFER SOME ON
THE SURFACE LOW POSITION AT 3 AM SAT...GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATING THE LOW CENTER AT 3 AM SAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST FRI
INTO FRI EVENING...AND OVER MUCH OF THE ALASKA INTERIOR LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
OR MORE AT FAIRBANKS ARE UNCOMMON...BUT ARE MOST OFTEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WHICH CAN IMPORT
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO THE ALASKA INTERIOR.

SURFACE...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTERIOR HAVE SHARPLY FELL
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
THE RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AND WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING RAPIDLY DURING THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAXIMUM
WIND GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY MANY SITES IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THE STRONGEST GUSTS REPORTED INCLUDE 50 MPH AT
THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT...49 MPH AT EAGLE SUMMIT...AND 47 MPH AT A
CO-OP SITE NEAR THE GOLDSTREAM AIRPORT.

ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN
PROGRESS...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN. THE DEADHORSE AIRPORT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
GUST OF 61 MPH SAT EVENING.

WINDS ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AND INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE BY LATE SUN NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EXPERIENCED SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN THE EVENING. POINT THOMPSON REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH DURING THE EVENING...WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 76 MPH.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING THERE BUT WINDS ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. NO WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FROM
BARTER ISLAND...BUT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THERE.
WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN.

THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM ON DECK IS A 987 MB LOW NEAR 56N/169E...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS BY 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN 1000 MB CENTER BEING LOCATED WEST
OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AND THE PARENT 995 MB LOW BEING ABOUT 200
MILES TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...NEAR 59N/171E. BY 9 AM SAT...
THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL FILL TO 1004 MB NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON
THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1004 MB CENTER
BEING OVER THE OUTER GULF OF ANADYR. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH WILL ENVELOP THE TWO LOW CENTERS.
BY 9 AM TUE...THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL REDEEPEN TO A 1000 MB
LOW CENTERED 100-200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW...WITH THE SOUTHERN
1004 MB CENTER MOVING TO NEAR BETHEL.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON AS THE TWO LOW CENTERS AND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACH. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND THE ALASKA WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
TUE NIGHT AND WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA MON
NIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER AREAS OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST.

AS INDICATED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ245.

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 011144
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

UPPER AIR...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA
TODAY. A SMOOTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL BUILD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM DALL POINT TO THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD BY 3 AM MON. BY 3AM TUE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE
RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON AND
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY 3 AM WED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA BY 3 AM TUE AND THEN SPLIT. MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ON INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA TUE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF
THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
BY 3 AM THU. A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...NUMBER 4 IN THE CURRENT SERIES...IS LIKELY
TO BE A STRONG ONE...CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM. CURRENT MODELS DIFFER SOME ON
THE SURFACE LOW POSITION AT 3 AM SAT...GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATING THE LOW CENTER AT 3 AM SAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST FRI
INTO FRI EVENING...AND OVER MUCH OF THE ALASKA INTERIOR LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
OR MORE AT FAIRBANKS ARE UNCOMMON...BUT ARE MOST OFTEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WHICH CAN IMPORT
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO THE ALASKA INTERIOR.

SURFACE...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTERIOR HAVE SHARPLY FELL
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
THE RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AND WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING RAPIDLY DURING THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAXIMUM
WIND GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY MANY SITES IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THE STRONGEST GUSTS REPORTED INCLUDE 50 MPH AT
THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT...49 MPH AT EAGLE SUMMIT...AND 47 MPH AT A
CO-OP SITE NEAR THE GOLDSTREAM AIRPORT.

ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN
PROGRESS...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN. THE DEADHORSE AIRPORT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
GUST OF 61 MPH SAT EVENING.

WINDS ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AND INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE BY LATE SUN NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EXPERIENCED SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN THE EVENING. POINT THOMPSON REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH DURING THE EVENING...WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 76 MPH.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING THERE BUT WINDS ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. NO WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FROM
BARTER ISLAND...BUT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THERE.
WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN.

THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM ON DECK IS A 987 MB LOW NEAR 56N/169E...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS BY 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN 1000 MB CENTER BEING LOCATED WEST
OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AND THE PARENT 995 MB LOW BEING ABOUT 200
MILES TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...NEAR 59N/171E. BY 9 AM SAT...
THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL FILL TO 1004 MB NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON
THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1004 MB CENTER
BEING OVER THE OUTER GULF OF ANADYR. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH WILL ENVELOP THE TWO LOW CENTERS.
BY 9 AM TUE...THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL REDEEPEN TO A 1000 MB
LOW CENTERED 100-200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW...WITH THE SOUTHERN
1004 MB CENTER MOVING TO NEAR BETHEL.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON AS THE TWO LOW CENTERS AND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACH. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND THE ALASKA WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
TUE NIGHT AND WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA MON
NIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER AREAS OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST.

AS INDICATED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ245.

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 011144
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

UPPER AIR...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA
TODAY. A SMOOTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL BUILD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM DALL POINT TO THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD BY 3 AM MON. BY 3AM TUE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE
RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON AND
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY 3 AM WED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA BY 3 AM TUE AND THEN SPLIT. MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ON INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA TUE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF
THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
BY 3 AM THU. A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...NUMBER 4 IN THE CURRENT SERIES...IS LIKELY
TO BE A STRONG ONE...CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM. CURRENT MODELS DIFFER SOME ON
THE SURFACE LOW POSITION AT 3 AM SAT...GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATING THE LOW CENTER AT 3 AM SAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST FRI
INTO FRI EVENING...AND OVER MUCH OF THE ALASKA INTERIOR LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
OR MORE AT FAIRBANKS ARE UNCOMMON...BUT ARE MOST OFTEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WHICH CAN IMPORT
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO THE ALASKA INTERIOR.

SURFACE...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTERIOR HAVE SHARPLY FELL
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
THE RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AND WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING RAPIDLY DURING THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAXIMUM
WIND GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY MANY SITES IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THE STRONGEST GUSTS REPORTED INCLUDE 50 MPH AT
THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT...49 MPH AT EAGLE SUMMIT...AND 47 MPH AT A
CO-OP SITE NEAR THE GOLDSTREAM AIRPORT.

ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN
PROGRESS...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN. THE DEADHORSE AIRPORT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
GUST OF 61 MPH SAT EVENING.

WINDS ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AND INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE BY LATE SUN NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EXPERIENCED SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN THE EVENING. POINT THOMPSON REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH DURING THE EVENING...WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 76 MPH.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING THERE BUT WINDS ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. NO WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FROM
BARTER ISLAND...BUT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THERE.
WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN.

THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM ON DECK IS A 987 MB LOW NEAR 56N/169E...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS BY 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN 1000 MB CENTER BEING LOCATED WEST
OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AND THE PARENT 995 MB LOW BEING ABOUT 200
MILES TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...NEAR 59N/171E. BY 9 AM SAT...
THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL FILL TO 1004 MB NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON
THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1004 MB CENTER
BEING OVER THE OUTER GULF OF ANADYR. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH WILL ENVELOP THE TWO LOW CENTERS.
BY 9 AM TUE...THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL REDEEPEN TO A 1000 MB
LOW CENTERED 100-200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW...WITH THE SOUTHERN
1004 MB CENTER MOVING TO NEAR BETHEL.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON AS THE TWO LOW CENTERS AND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACH. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND THE ALASKA WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
TUE NIGHT AND WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA MON
NIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER AREAS OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST.

AS INDICATED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ245.

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 011144
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

UPPER AIR...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA
TODAY. A SMOOTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL BUILD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM DALL POINT TO THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD BY 3 AM MON. BY 3AM TUE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE
RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON AND
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY 3 AM WED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA BY 3 AM TUE AND THEN SPLIT. MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ON INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA TUE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF
THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
BY 3 AM THU. A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...NUMBER 4 IN THE CURRENT SERIES...IS LIKELY
TO BE A STRONG ONE...CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM. CURRENT MODELS DIFFER SOME ON
THE SURFACE LOW POSITION AT 3 AM SAT...GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATING THE LOW CENTER AT 3 AM SAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST FRI
INTO FRI EVENING...AND OVER MUCH OF THE ALASKA INTERIOR LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
OR MORE AT FAIRBANKS ARE UNCOMMON...BUT ARE MOST OFTEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WHICH CAN IMPORT
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO THE ALASKA INTERIOR.

SURFACE...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTERIOR HAVE SHARPLY FELL
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
THE RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AND WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING RAPIDLY DURING THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAXIMUM
WIND GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY MANY SITES IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THE STRONGEST GUSTS REPORTED INCLUDE 50 MPH AT
THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT...49 MPH AT EAGLE SUMMIT...AND 47 MPH AT A
CO-OP SITE NEAR THE GOLDSTREAM AIRPORT.

ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN
PROGRESS...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN. THE DEADHORSE AIRPORT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
GUST OF 61 MPH SAT EVENING.

WINDS ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AND INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE BY LATE SUN NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EXPERIENCED SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN THE EVENING. POINT THOMPSON REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH DURING THE EVENING...WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 76 MPH.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING THERE BUT WINDS ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. NO WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FROM
BARTER ISLAND...BUT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THERE.
WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN.

THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM ON DECK IS A 987 MB LOW NEAR 56N/169E...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS BY 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN 1000 MB CENTER BEING LOCATED WEST
OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AND THE PARENT 995 MB LOW BEING ABOUT 200
MILES TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...NEAR 59N/171E. BY 9 AM SAT...
THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL FILL TO 1004 MB NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON
THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1004 MB CENTER
BEING OVER THE OUTER GULF OF ANADYR. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH WILL ENVELOP THE TWO LOW CENTERS.
BY 9 AM TUE...THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL REDEEPEN TO A 1000 MB
LOW CENTERED 100-200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW...WITH THE SOUTHERN
1004 MB CENTER MOVING TO NEAR BETHEL.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON AS THE TWO LOW CENTERS AND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACH. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND THE ALASKA WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
TUE NIGHT AND WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA MON
NIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER AREAS OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST.

AS INDICATED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ245.

$$

RF FEB 15


  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG ABOUT 155
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT-WAVE IS ESSENTIALLY "BARRELING"
THROUGH. FURTHER WEST THERE IS A DEEP LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE BERING AND TO NEAR KODIAK ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS AT THIS
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS RAPID TRACK EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH CLEARING OUT SKIES OVERNIGHT. THESE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THUS HOW
FAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. ON SUNDAY
EVENING A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH AND TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MOISTURE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE AND WILL SPREAD INLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN A
WINTRY MIX WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINES AS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE MERGING WITH A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE BERING
STRAIT BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN OF SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
HAVE A WEATHER FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH PAST SHEMYA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS MIXING WITH RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SERIES OF
KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS).

BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS FAR NORTH AS TALKEETNA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
TREND ON TUESDAY WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST PLACES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO BEGIN OFF AS SNOW AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 177 185. STORM 178. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG ABOUT 155
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT-WAVE IS ESSENTIALLY "BARRELING"
THROUGH. FURTHER WEST THERE IS A DEEP LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE BERING AND TO NEAR KODIAK ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS AT THIS
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS RAPID TRACK EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH CLEARING OUT SKIES OVERNIGHT. THESE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THUS HOW
FAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. ON SUNDAY
EVENING A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH AND TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MOISTURE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE AND WILL SPREAD INLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN A
WINTRY MIX WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINES AS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE MERGING WITH A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE BERING
STRAIT BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN OF SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
HAVE A WEATHER FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH PAST SHEMYA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS MIXING WITH RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SERIES OF
KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS).

BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS FAR NORTH AS TALKEETNA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
TREND ON TUESDAY WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST PLACES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO BEGIN OFF AS SNOW AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 177 185. STORM 178. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG ABOUT 155
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT-WAVE IS ESSENTIALLY "BARRELING"
THROUGH. FURTHER WEST THERE IS A DEEP LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE BERING AND TO NEAR KODIAK ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS AT THIS
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS RAPID TRACK EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH CLEARING OUT SKIES OVERNIGHT. THESE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THUS HOW
FAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. ON SUNDAY
EVENING A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH AND TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MOISTURE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE AND WILL SPREAD INLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN A
WINTRY MIX WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINES AS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE MERGING WITH A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE BERING
STRAIT BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN OF SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
HAVE A WEATHER FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH PAST SHEMYA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS MIXING WITH RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SERIES OF
KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS).

BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS FAR NORTH AS TALKEETNA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
TREND ON TUESDAY WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST PLACES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO BEGIN OFF AS SNOW AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 177 185. STORM 178. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG ABOUT 155
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT-WAVE IS ESSENTIALLY "BARRELING"
THROUGH. FURTHER WEST THERE IS A DEEP LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE BERING AND TO NEAR KODIAK ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS AT THIS
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS RAPID TRACK EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH CLEARING OUT SKIES OVERNIGHT. THESE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THUS HOW
FAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. ON SUNDAY
EVENING A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH AND TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MOISTURE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE AND WILL SPREAD INLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN A
WINTRY MIX WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINES AS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE MERGING WITH A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE BERING
STRAIT BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN OF SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
HAVE A WEATHER FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH PAST SHEMYA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS MIXING WITH RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SERIES OF
KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS).

BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS FAR NORTH AS TALKEETNA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
TREND ON TUESDAY WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST PLACES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO BEGIN OFF AS SNOW AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 177 185. STORM 178. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG ABOUT 155
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT-WAVE IS ESSENTIALLY "BARRELING"
THROUGH. FURTHER WEST THERE IS A DEEP LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE BERING AND TO NEAR KODIAK ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS AT THIS
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS RAPID TRACK EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH CLEARING OUT SKIES OVERNIGHT. THESE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THUS HOW
FAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. ON SUNDAY
EVENING A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH AND TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MOISTURE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE AND WILL SPREAD INLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN A
WINTRY MIX WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINES AS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE MERGING WITH A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE BERING
STRAIT BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN OF SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
HAVE A WEATHER FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH PAST SHEMYA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS MIXING WITH RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SERIES OF
KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS).

BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS FAR NORTH AS TALKEETNA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
TREND ON TUESDAY WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST PLACES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO BEGIN OFF AS SNOW AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 177 185. STORM 178. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG ABOUT 155
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT-WAVE IS ESSENTIALLY "BARRELING"
THROUGH. FURTHER WEST THERE IS A DEEP LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE BERING AND TO NEAR KODIAK ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS AT THIS
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS RAPID TRACK EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH CLEARING OUT SKIES OVERNIGHT. THESE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THUS HOW
FAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. ON SUNDAY
EVENING A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH AND TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MOISTURE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE AND WILL SPREAD INLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN A
WINTRY MIX WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINES AS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE MERGING WITH A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE BERING
STRAIT BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN OF SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
HAVE A WEATHER FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH PAST SHEMYA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS MIXING WITH RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SERIES OF
KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS).

BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS FAR NORTH AS TALKEETNA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
TREND ON TUESDAY WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST PLACES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO BEGIN OFF AS SNOW AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 177 185. STORM 178. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$



000
FXAK69 PAFG 010056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. VERY STRONG
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS QUICK
MOVING FEATURE IS DROPPING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AS IT
SWIFTLY MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN TRACE FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SEVERAL INTERIOR ZONES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD.

THE STRONG WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING IN THE
EASTERN ARCTIC. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST TO
80 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE EXTREMELY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ARE WORKING HAND IN HAND TO CREATE THE
INTENSE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE WIND WILL
ABATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A VERY STRONG AND FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR MOVING THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EAST. THE RIDGE SETS
UP IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER SERIES OF INTENSE
SHORT WAVES WORK IN TANDEM TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING IN
DECENT COLD AIR AND RAPIDLY MOVING PRECIPITATION MAKERS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH BY THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COLD AGAIN AND NOT REALLY WARM INTO
THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 010056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. VERY STRONG
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS QUICK
MOVING FEATURE IS DROPPING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AS IT
SWIFTLY MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN TRACE FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SEVERAL INTERIOR ZONES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD.

THE STRONG WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING IN THE
EASTERN ARCTIC. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST TO
80 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE EXTREMELY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ARE WORKING HAND IN HAND TO CREATE THE
INTENSE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE WIND WILL
ABATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A VERY STRONG AND FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR MOVING THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EAST. THE RIDGE SETS
UP IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER SERIES OF INTENSE
SHORT WAVES WORK IN TANDEM TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING IN
DECENT COLD AIR AND RAPIDLY MOVING PRECIPITATION MAKERS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH BY THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COLD AGAIN AND NOT REALLY WARM INTO
THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 010056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. VERY STRONG
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS QUICK
MOVING FEATURE IS DROPPING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AS IT
SWIFTLY MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN TRACE FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SEVERAL INTERIOR ZONES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD.

THE STRONG WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING IN THE
EASTERN ARCTIC. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST TO
80 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE EXTREMELY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ARE WORKING HAND IN HAND TO CREATE THE
INTENSE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE WIND WILL
ABATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A VERY STRONG AND FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR MOVING THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EAST. THE RIDGE SETS
UP IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER SERIES OF INTENSE
SHORT WAVES WORK IN TANDEM TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING IN
DECENT COLD AIR AND RAPIDLY MOVING PRECIPITATION MAKERS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH BY THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COLD AGAIN AND NOT REALLY WARM INTO
THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 010056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. VERY STRONG
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS QUICK
MOVING FEATURE IS DROPPING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AS IT
SWIFTLY MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN TRACE FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SEVERAL INTERIOR ZONES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD.

THE STRONG WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING IN THE
EASTERN ARCTIC. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST TO
80 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE EXTREMELY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ARE WORKING HAND IN HAND TO CREATE THE
INTENSE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE WIND WILL
ABATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A VERY STRONG AND FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR MOVING THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EAST. THE RIDGE SETS
UP IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER SERIES OF INTENSE
SHORT WAVES WORK IN TANDEM TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING IN
DECENT COLD AIR AND RAPIDLY MOVING PRECIPITATION MAKERS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH BY THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COLD AGAIN AND NOT REALLY WARM INTO
THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 010056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. VERY STRONG
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS QUICK
MOVING FEATURE IS DROPPING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AS IT
SWIFTLY MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN TRACE FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SEVERAL INTERIOR ZONES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD.

THE STRONG WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING IN THE
EASTERN ARCTIC. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST TO
80 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE EXTREMELY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ARE WORKING HAND IN HAND TO CREATE THE
INTENSE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE WIND WILL
ABATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A VERY STRONG AND FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR MOVING THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EAST. THE RIDGE SETS
UP IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER SERIES OF INTENSE
SHORT WAVES WORK IN TANDEM TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING IN
DECENT COLD AIR AND RAPIDLY MOVING PRECIPITATION MAKERS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH BY THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COLD AGAIN AND NOT REALLY WARM INTO
THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 010056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. VERY STRONG
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS QUICK
MOVING FEATURE IS DROPPING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AS IT
SWIFTLY MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN TRACE FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SEVERAL INTERIOR ZONES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD.

THE STRONG WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING IN THE
EASTERN ARCTIC. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST TO
80 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE EXTREMELY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ARE WORKING HAND IN HAND TO CREATE THE
INTENSE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE WIND WILL
ABATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A VERY STRONG AND FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR MOVING THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EAST. THE RIDGE SETS
UP IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER SERIES OF INTENSE
SHORT WAVES WORK IN TANDEM TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING IN
DECENT COLD AIR AND RAPIDLY MOVING PRECIPITATION MAKERS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH BY THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COLD AGAIN AND NOT REALLY WARM INTO
THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 15



  [top]

000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK69 PAFG 281507
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
607 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...


UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD AND FLATTENED AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE
BERING SEA ALONG 175W...AND WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RIDGING
WILL REBUILD SUN AND MON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI BY TUE MORNING...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ARCTIC SLOPE SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH WED MORNING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
REBOUND SUN INTO MON AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD.

SURFACE...
06Z GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS INITIALIZE WELL ON THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER
JUST WEST OF GAMBELL. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA
AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. GFS/NAM PROGGED POSITION
FOR 9 PM SAT IS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT...CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 993 MB. GFS PROG AGREES WELL WITH THE 00Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY 9 AM SUN...THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BANKS
ISLAND WEAKENING TO AROUND 996 MB. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY REBUILD
EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

NORTH SLOPE...
STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON SUN ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...
AND THROUGH AROUND 6 PM SUN ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE VERY STRONG. ON
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...A PRESSURE RISE OF ALMOST 25 MB IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN...WITH ANOTHER 10
MB RISE BETWEEN 3 AM SUN AND 9 AM SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND AT LOWER LEVELS ALOFT WILL FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN. WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALOFT WILL MAX OUT AT 60-65 KT. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE WEST WINDS TO AROUND
65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ON THE
ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME EAST 15-25 MPH BY
LATE SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC
COAST BY SUN EVENING...AND ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COASTS BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

THE NEXT SURFACE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COAST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. SINCE THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THIS LOW IS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INSTEAD OF FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN
THOSE PRODUCED BY THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND REDEVELOPMENT
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

INTERIOR...
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION...AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY...AND TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH AT VALLEY LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGHER SUMMITS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 50 MPH AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.

OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS...ALONG WITH MORE SNOW...ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
AT LOWER LEVELS OF ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 40 KT.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND BECOME LIGHT BY SUN MORNING.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT
FOR ZONES 207-208-213-217...BUT ARE SCHEDULED TO END TODAY OR
THIS EVENING. GOES IR LOOP CURRENTLY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND SNOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM POINT HOPE
TO NOME AND EMMONAK...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ON THE WEST COAST...
ZONE 207...6 INCHES.
ZONE 208...6 TO 10 INCHES.
ZONE 209...4 INCHES.
ZONE 210...4 INCHES.
ZONE 211...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 212...4 INCHES.
ZONE 213...3 INCHES.
ZONE 216...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 217...6 TO 10 INCHES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 281507
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
607 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...


UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD AND FLATTENED AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE
BERING SEA ALONG 175W...AND WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RIDGING
WILL REBUILD SUN AND MON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI BY TUE MORNING...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ARCTIC SLOPE SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH WED MORNING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
REBOUND SUN INTO MON AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD.

SURFACE...
06Z GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS INITIALIZE WELL ON THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER
JUST WEST OF GAMBELL. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA
AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. GFS/NAM PROGGED POSITION
FOR 9 PM SAT IS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT...CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 993 MB. GFS PROG AGREES WELL WITH THE 00Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY 9 AM SUN...THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BANKS
ISLAND WEAKENING TO AROUND 996 MB. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY REBUILD
EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

NORTH SLOPE...
STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON SUN ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...
AND THROUGH AROUND 6 PM SUN ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE VERY STRONG. ON
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...A PRESSURE RISE OF ALMOST 25 MB IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN...WITH ANOTHER 10
MB RISE BETWEEN 3 AM SUN AND 9 AM SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND AT LOWER LEVELS ALOFT WILL FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN. WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALOFT WILL MAX OUT AT 60-65 KT. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE WEST WINDS TO AROUND
65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ON THE
ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME EAST 15-25 MPH BY
LATE SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC
COAST BY SUN EVENING...AND ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COASTS BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

THE NEXT SURFACE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COAST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. SINCE THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THIS LOW IS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INSTEAD OF FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN
THOSE PRODUCED BY THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND REDEVELOPMENT
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

INTERIOR...
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION...AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY...AND TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH AT VALLEY LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGHER SUMMITS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 50 MPH AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.

OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS...ALONG WITH MORE SNOW...ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
AT LOWER LEVELS OF ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 40 KT.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND BECOME LIGHT BY SUN MORNING.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT
FOR ZONES 207-208-213-217...BUT ARE SCHEDULED TO END TODAY OR
THIS EVENING. GOES IR LOOP CURRENTLY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND SNOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM POINT HOPE
TO NOME AND EMMONAK...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ON THE WEST COAST...
ZONE 207...6 INCHES.
ZONE 208...6 TO 10 INCHES.
ZONE 209...4 INCHES.
ZONE 210...4 INCHES.
ZONE 211...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 212...4 INCHES.
ZONE 213...3 INCHES.
ZONE 216...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 217...6 TO 10 INCHES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 281507
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
607 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...


UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD AND FLATTENED AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE
BERING SEA ALONG 175W...AND WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RIDGING
WILL REBUILD SUN AND MON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI BY TUE MORNING...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ARCTIC SLOPE SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH WED MORNING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
REBOUND SUN INTO MON AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD.

SURFACE...
06Z GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS INITIALIZE WELL ON THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER
JUST WEST OF GAMBELL. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA
AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. GFS/NAM PROGGED POSITION
FOR 9 PM SAT IS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT...CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 993 MB. GFS PROG AGREES WELL WITH THE 00Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY 9 AM SUN...THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BANKS
ISLAND WEAKENING TO AROUND 996 MB. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY REBUILD
EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

NORTH SLOPE...
STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON SUN ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...
AND THROUGH AROUND 6 PM SUN ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE VERY STRONG. ON
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...A PRESSURE RISE OF ALMOST 25 MB IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN...WITH ANOTHER 10
MB RISE BETWEEN 3 AM SUN AND 9 AM SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND AT LOWER LEVELS ALOFT WILL FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN. WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALOFT WILL MAX OUT AT 60-65 KT. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE WEST WINDS TO AROUND
65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ON THE
ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME EAST 15-25 MPH BY
LATE SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC
COAST BY SUN EVENING...AND ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COASTS BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

THE NEXT SURFACE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COAST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. SINCE THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THIS LOW IS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INSTEAD OF FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN
THOSE PRODUCED BY THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND REDEVELOPMENT
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

INTERIOR...
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION...AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY...AND TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH AT VALLEY LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGHER SUMMITS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 50 MPH AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.

OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS...ALONG WITH MORE SNOW...ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
AT LOWER LEVELS OF ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 40 KT.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND BECOME LIGHT BY SUN MORNING.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT
FOR ZONES 207-208-213-217...BUT ARE SCHEDULED TO END TODAY OR
THIS EVENING. GOES IR LOOP CURRENTLY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND SNOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM POINT HOPE
TO NOME AND EMMONAK...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ON THE WEST COAST...
ZONE 207...6 INCHES.
ZONE 208...6 TO 10 INCHES.
ZONE 209...4 INCHES.
ZONE 210...4 INCHES.
ZONE 211...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 212...4 INCHES.
ZONE 213...3 INCHES.
ZONE 216...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 217...6 TO 10 INCHES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK67 PAJK 281427 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
527 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. IN THE MEANTIME OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER SEVERAL NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS SUN PM THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE NEW
TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS OF
LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 281427 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
527 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. IN THE MEANTIME OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER SEVERAL NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS SUN PM THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE NEW
TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS OF
LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 281427 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
527 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. IN THE MEANTIME OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER SEVERAL NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS SUN PM THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE NEW
TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS OF
LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 281427 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
527 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. IN THE MEANTIME OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER SEVERAL NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS SUN PM THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE NEW
TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS OF
LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 281352
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS
OF LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
















000
FXAK67 PAJK 281352
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS
OF LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU















000
FXAK67 PAJK 281352
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS
OF LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
















000
FXAK67 PAJK 281352
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER HIGH
ACROSS YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST A LITTLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WARM UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING RAIN BAND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AN IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BREAK THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING
SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
GLACIER BAY TO JUNEAU AREA EAST TO ALONG COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE
SOUTHEAST TO HYDER REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TREND OF MOVING
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND ENDING IT QUICKER CONTINUED ON THE
00Z/06Z RUNS...WE HAVE ONLY 0.1 TO PERHAPS 0.3 LIQUID TOTAL
PREDICTED NOW WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE GETTING ANY THREAT OF
SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIP...WITH CLEARING SKIES SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. IF THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL. 00Z NAM RUN WAS
STILL RELATIVELY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM (OUTLIER) WHILE THE 06Z RUN
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS ON THE DRIER/QUICKER SCENARIO.
CHOSE TO UPDATE WITH AN EC/NAM COMBO BUT THIS ONLY INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER POPS AND A QUICKER EXIT. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO OF
A DRIER/QUICKER SYSTEM STARTED WITH THE SAME TREND NOTED IN THE
DAY SHIFT LOG TODAY.

AFTER A SHARP POST-TROUGH RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER...AND THE INTERIOR
ANTICYCLONE GENERATING SOME MODERATE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER A FEW OF
THE CHANNELS AND EASTERN ZONES...MODELS BRING A NEW UPPER TROUGH
IN FOR TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT ENERGETIC. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROUGH IS HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AREAS
OF LIGHT QPF REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE ONLY PRESSURE/WIND UPDATE
NECESSARY WAS ON MON WHERE THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATED LIKELY
STRONGER SURFACE OCEANIC WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GULF ON THE EC/GFS MODELS WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY MARKS THE DAY IN
THIS CYCLE WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOW-LEVEL
DETAILS WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN THE EC WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GEM SHOWS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OT THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY THURSDAY ONE LOW COMES ONSHORE
ON THE GFS WITHIN CONTINUED GENERAL GULF TROUGHING. THE EC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND COULD NOT
SPECIFY TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WENT WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS
LEFT THE GRIDS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
WED-SAT PERIOD. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE ONLY DOUBTS BEING THE
SKAGWAY/HAINES AREA AND POSSIBLY YAKUTAT...PER USUAL. NO EVIDENCE
OF ANY ORGANIZED INFLUX OF COLD AIR INTO THE TROUGH THRU PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU















000
FXAK68 PAFC 281300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ONE WEAK LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION THIS MORNING WHILE IT FALLS APART.
A MASSIVE DRY LAYER UP TOP 18,000` WAS EVIDENT ON THE AFTERNOON
SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE AND THUS...ANYTHING FALLING THROUGH THAT
LAYER IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. THE BIGGER
STORY IS THE COLD FRONT OUT ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN 80-90 KT JET. SNOW HAS STARTED AT BETHEL AND STRETCHES BACK
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL. OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...AN AGGRESSIVE 140 KT PIECE OF THE POLAR FRONT JET IS
SUPPORTING A 980 MB LOW JUST WEST OF OUR DOMAIN. THIS LOW IS
DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE EXTREME WESTERN ISLANDS WITH A SMALL
AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FANTASTIC AGREEMENT
IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO OVERALL FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MOST MODELS WERE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH BRISTOL BAY LAST NIGHT. SO AS WE
START TO SHIFT OUR FOCUS TO THE COLD FRONT OVER THE YK DELTA...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND RE-EMERGES. MAINLY THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS WERE USED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW DRIVES THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN RUSSIA ON
SUNDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A LOW COMPLEX
EMERGING JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS LOW WILL RESULT FROM
PHASING BETWEEN SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT THE
DETAILS OF THIS COMPLICATED SCENARIO...SO A BROAD BRUSHED MODEL
APPROACHED WAS APPLIED TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
GENERALLY EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION (OF AN INCH OR LESS). THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TALKEETNA
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS AND LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA SHOWS THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AT 9000 FEET OR GREATER. THUS SNOW RATIOS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 10 TO 1 AND 15 TO 1. THIS
GIVES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT DESPITE THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE THE USUAL
GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THEY WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
BY LATE SUNDAY.

THE LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXTENT OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWFALL. THE COLD ADVECTION IS SHORT-
LIVED AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET. MEANWHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS SOON AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THIS SEEMS LIKE A GREAT SCENARIO FOR FOG
AND STRATUS FORMATION. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE COOK INLET TO SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME STEADY SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW EVENING INTO
SUNDAY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE.

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING WILL MOVE QUICKLY ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING.

THIS LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
THEN BEGIN WEAKENING STEADILY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING. ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. A
BROAD PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP A
DEFORMATION BAND OF WET SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
AND PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

&&

MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS SOME OF THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW A
CUT OFF LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS IMPACTS HOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE RISE ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A LOW
COMING OFF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WHERE
IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY. THESE TWO KAMCHATKA
LOWS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WITH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE AS WEAK
RIDGING RESIDES AND KEEPS THE LOWS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MAINLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN LARGELY ON THE DRY SIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CREATE A
WEAK LOW THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SPREADING INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 178
         GALE 177 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MC



000
FXAK68 PAFC 281300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ONE WEAK LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION THIS MORNING WHILE IT FALLS APART.
A MASSIVE DRY LAYER UP TOP 18,000` WAS EVIDENT ON THE AFTERNOON
SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE AND THUS...ANYTHING FALLING THROUGH THAT
LAYER IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. THE BIGGER
STORY IS THE COLD FRONT OUT ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN 80-90 KT JET. SNOW HAS STARTED AT BETHEL AND STRETCHES BACK
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL. OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...AN AGGRESSIVE 140 KT PIECE OF THE POLAR FRONT JET IS
SUPPORTING A 980 MB LOW JUST WEST OF OUR DOMAIN. THIS LOW IS
DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE EXTREME WESTERN ISLANDS WITH A SMALL
AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FANTASTIC AGREEMENT
IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO OVERALL FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MOST MODELS WERE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH BRISTOL BAY LAST NIGHT. SO AS WE
START TO SHIFT OUR FOCUS TO THE COLD FRONT OVER THE YK DELTA...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND RE-EMERGES. MAINLY THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS WERE USED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW DRIVES THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN RUSSIA ON
SUNDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A LOW COMPLEX
EMERGING JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS LOW WILL RESULT FROM
PHASING BETWEEN SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT THE
DETAILS OF THIS COMPLICATED SCENARIO...SO A BROAD BRUSHED MODEL
APPROACHED WAS APPLIED TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
GENERALLY EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION (OF AN INCH OR LESS). THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TALKEETNA
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS AND LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA SHOWS THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AT 9000 FEET OR GREATER. THUS SNOW RATIOS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 10 TO 1 AND 15 TO 1. THIS
GIVES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT DESPITE THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE THE USUAL
GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THEY WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
BY LATE SUNDAY.

THE LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXTENT OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWFALL. THE COLD ADVECTION IS SHORT-
LIVED AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET. MEANWHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS SOON AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THIS SEEMS LIKE A GREAT SCENARIO FOR FOG
AND STRATUS FORMATION. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE COOK INLET TO SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME STEADY SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW EVENING INTO
SUNDAY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE.

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING WILL MOVE QUICKLY ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING.

THIS LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
THEN BEGIN WEAKENING STEADILY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING. ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. A
BROAD PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP A
DEFORMATION BAND OF WET SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
AND PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

&&

MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS SOME OF THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW A
CUT OFF LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS IMPACTS HOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE RISE ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A LOW
COMING OFF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WHERE
IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY. THESE TWO KAMCHATKA
LOWS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WITH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE AS WEAK
RIDGING RESIDES AND KEEPS THE LOWS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MAINLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN LARGELY ON THE DRY SIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CREATE A
WEAK LOW THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SPREADING INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 178
         GALE 177 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MC




000
FXAK68 PAFC 281300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ONE WEAK LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION THIS MORNING WHILE IT FALLS APART.
A MASSIVE DRY LAYER UP TOP 18,000` WAS EVIDENT ON THE AFTERNOON
SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE AND THUS...ANYTHING FALLING THROUGH THAT
LAYER IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. THE BIGGER
STORY IS THE COLD FRONT OUT ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN 80-90 KT JET. SNOW HAS STARTED AT BETHEL AND STRETCHES BACK
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL. OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...AN AGGRESSIVE 140 KT PIECE OF THE POLAR FRONT JET IS
SUPPORTING A 980 MB LOW JUST WEST OF OUR DOMAIN. THIS LOW IS
DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE EXTREME WESTERN ISLANDS WITH A SMALL
AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FANTASTIC AGREEMENT
IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO OVERALL FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MOST MODELS WERE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH BRISTOL BAY LAST NIGHT. SO AS WE
START TO SHIFT OUR FOCUS TO THE COLD FRONT OVER THE YK DELTA...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND RE-EMERGES. MAINLY THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS WERE USED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW DRIVES THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN RUSSIA ON
SUNDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A LOW COMPLEX
EMERGING JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS LOW WILL RESULT FROM
PHASING BETWEEN SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT THE
DETAILS OF THIS COMPLICATED SCENARIO...SO A BROAD BRUSHED MODEL
APPROACHED WAS APPLIED TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
GENERALLY EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION (OF AN INCH OR LESS). THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TALKEETNA
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS AND LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA SHOWS THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AT 9000 FEET OR GREATER. THUS SNOW RATIOS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 10 TO 1 AND 15 TO 1. THIS
GIVES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT DESPITE THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE THE USUAL
GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THEY WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
BY LATE SUNDAY.

THE LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXTENT OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWFALL. THE COLD ADVECTION IS SHORT-
LIVED AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET. MEANWHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS SOON AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THIS SEEMS LIKE A GREAT SCENARIO FOR FOG
AND STRATUS FORMATION. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE COOK INLET TO SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME STEADY SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW EVENING INTO
SUNDAY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE.

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING WILL MOVE QUICKLY ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING.

THIS LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
THEN BEGIN WEAKENING STEADILY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING. ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. A
BROAD PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP A
DEFORMATION BAND OF WET SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
AND PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

&&

MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS SOME OF THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW A
CUT OFF LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS IMPACTS HOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE RISE ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A LOW
COMING OFF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WHERE
IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY. THESE TWO KAMCHATKA
LOWS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WITH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE AS WEAK
RIDGING RESIDES AND KEEPS THE LOWS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MAINLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN LARGELY ON THE DRY SIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CREATE A
WEAK LOW THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SPREADING INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 178
         GALE 177 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MC




000
FXAK68 PAFC 280146
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES WERE EVIDENT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER WAVE WERE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL SURFACE AND WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ARE
APPROACHING THE AK PEN. PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES AT THIS
TIME IS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AK PEN...THOUGH THE KING SALMON
RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS MOVING NORTH ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. LOWER
CLOUD COVER (STRATUS) WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF SW ALASKA. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO OVER ARCTIC OCEAN CONTINUES IN PLACE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ALL HAVE A SIMILAR TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING QPF PATTERN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MAINLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE GEM REGIONAL APPEARS TO HAVE A
LITTLE BETTER HANDLING OF THE QPF FIELD WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE AK PEN AND WESTERN GULF. SHORT TERM FORECASTS WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS USING THE GEM REGIONAL AND NAM FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CURRENTLY A FRAGMENTED WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS BRINGING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT IS TOO DRY
FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THIS WAVE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL LEVELS AND ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SECOND WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE COLUMN LOOKS
TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT ARE NOT ALONG
THE GULF. THE FEATURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF WITH IT. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
TODAY`S FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING ONTO THE MAINLAND. WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE LARGELY BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW FURTHER
INLAND AND RAIN TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OVERNIGHT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD CAUSING INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH THERE WILL
BE A TRANSITIONAL AREA FROM SNOW INLAND TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH SO FREEZING RAIN IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME STEADY SNOW TOWARD MORNING FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW EVENING INTO SUNDAY
DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE IS A GALE/STORM FORCE FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

MONDAY MORNING HIGHLIGHTS SOME OF THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING HOW A CUT OFF LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS IMPACTS HOW
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON
MONDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...A LOW COMING OFF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A
SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON
FRIDAY. THESE TWO KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING RESIDES AND KEEPS THE LOWS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MAINLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN LARGELY ON THE DRY SIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CREATE A
WEAK LOW THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SPREADING INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 280146
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES WERE EVIDENT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER WAVE WERE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL SURFACE AND WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ARE
APPROACHING THE AK PEN. PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES AT THIS
TIME IS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AK PEN...THOUGH THE KING SALMON
RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS MOVING NORTH ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. LOWER
CLOUD COVER (STRATUS) WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF SW ALASKA. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO OVER ARCTIC OCEAN CONTINUES IN PLACE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ALL HAVE A SIMILAR TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING QPF PATTERN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MAINLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE GEM REGIONAL APPEARS TO HAVE A
LITTLE BETTER HANDLING OF THE QPF FIELD WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE AK PEN AND WESTERN GULF. SHORT TERM FORECASTS WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS USING THE GEM REGIONAL AND NAM FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CURRENTLY A FRAGMENTED WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS BRINGING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT IS TOO DRY
FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THIS WAVE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL LEVELS AND ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SECOND WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE COLUMN LOOKS
TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT ARE NOT ALONG
THE GULF. THE FEATURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF WITH IT. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
TODAY`S FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING ONTO THE MAINLAND. WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE LARGELY BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW FURTHER
INLAND AND RAIN TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OVERNIGHT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD CAUSING INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH THERE WILL
BE A TRANSITIONAL AREA FROM SNOW INLAND TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH SO FREEZING RAIN IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME STEADY SNOW TOWARD MORNING FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW EVENING INTO SUNDAY
DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE IS A GALE/STORM FORCE FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

MONDAY MORNING HIGHLIGHTS SOME OF THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING HOW A CUT OFF LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS IMPACTS HOW
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON
MONDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...A LOW COMING OFF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A
SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON
FRIDAY. THESE TWO KAMCHATKA LOWS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING RESIDES AND KEEPS THE LOWS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MAINLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN LARGELY ON THE DRY SIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CREATE A
WEAK LOW THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SPREADING INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK67 PAJK 280019
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST YUKON HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXISTS, BUT SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
MUCH TO SPEAK OF TODAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WINDS
AT FIVE FINGER LIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF STEPHENS PASSAGE
THREATENED SMALL CRAFT EARLIER TODAY, BUT ARE DOWN TO 18 KTS AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SKAGWAY IS ONLY REPORTING A NORTHEAST
10 KT WIND. ACROSS THE CANAL, WINDS IN HAINES HAVE BEEN A BIT
STRONGER AT 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS.

POP REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE GULF HIGH SHUNTING
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH INTO THE COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS BEING OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER
NORTH, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MAKING IT OVER THE TOP
OF THE GULF HIGH, BUT MOST OF IT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER ANY
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO CAPE DECISION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW
TO THE WEST RIDES UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE GULF HIGH. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, HOWEVER.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT,
OVERNIGHT LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW ALSO EXPECTED TO
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OF COLDER AIR IS BEING DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AS RIDING UP
AND OVER THE HIGH IN THE GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THIS
COLDER AIR REACHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. EVEN SO,
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A FINE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON LAND OR WATER, OR IN THE AIR.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS. POP AND QPF STILL NO FACTOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGH FROM PERSISTENCE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ONLY AVERAGE FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THRU THE
RIDGE TOP SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MAINLY HAVE JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND BE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SAT EVENING. SECOND
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
MOVE SE THRU THE ERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW A BIT TO THE S ON LATEST RUNS. THIS LOW SHOULD
BE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. FOR TUE INTO LATE
WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL GET THRU THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR
SAT NIGHT-MON...THEN WENT WITH MAINLY WPC FOR MON NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME
OVER THE FAR N TO CHANCE LEVELS OR LESS DUE TO THE SWD SHIFT IN
LOW TRACK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND PRECIP WILL
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM N TO S SUN. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NRN END OF THE PRECIP AREA BUT LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM THE N
SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN THIRD...THEN DURING SUN AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS CLEARING TREND SHOULD REACH
THE SRN THIRD AROUND EARLY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE N SUN AS THE NLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA LEVEL N WINDS OVER THE FAR N BY SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHARP
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE W...LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING NLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WINDS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR TUE ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING
MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRY TO BREAK THRU THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS CAUSED ME TO LIMIT
POPS TO LIKELY ON THE HIGH END THOUGH. LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MILD
STILL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE SW...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. MAY SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 280019
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST YUKON HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXISTS, BUT SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
MUCH TO SPEAK OF TODAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WINDS
AT FIVE FINGER LIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF STEPHENS PASSAGE
THREATENED SMALL CRAFT EARLIER TODAY, BUT ARE DOWN TO 18 KTS AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SKAGWAY IS ONLY REPORTING A NORTHEAST
10 KT WIND. ACROSS THE CANAL, WINDS IN HAINES HAVE BEEN A BIT
STRONGER AT 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS.

POP REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE GULF HIGH SHUNTING
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH INTO THE COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS BEING OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER
NORTH, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MAKING IT OVER THE TOP
OF THE GULF HIGH, BUT MOST OF IT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER ANY
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO CAPE DECISION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW
TO THE WEST RIDES UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE GULF HIGH. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, HOWEVER.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT,
OVERNIGHT LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW ALSO EXPECTED TO
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OF COLDER AIR IS BEING DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AS RIDING UP
AND OVER THE HIGH IN THE GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THIS
COLDER AIR REACHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. EVEN SO,
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A FINE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON LAND OR WATER, OR IN THE AIR.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS. POP AND QPF STILL NO FACTOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGH FROM PERSISTENCE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ONLY AVERAGE FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THRU THE
RIDGE TOP SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MAINLY HAVE JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND BE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SAT EVENING. SECOND
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
MOVE SE THRU THE ERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW A BIT TO THE S ON LATEST RUNS. THIS LOW SHOULD
BE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. FOR TUE INTO LATE
WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL GET THRU THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR
SAT NIGHT-MON...THEN WENT WITH MAINLY WPC FOR MON NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME
OVER THE FAR N TO CHANCE LEVELS OR LESS DUE TO THE SWD SHIFT IN
LOW TRACK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND PRECIP WILL
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM N TO S SUN. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NRN END OF THE PRECIP AREA BUT LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM THE N
SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN THIRD...THEN DURING SUN AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS CLEARING TREND SHOULD REACH
THE SRN THIRD AROUND EARLY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE N SUN AS THE NLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA LEVEL N WINDS OVER THE FAR N BY SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHARP
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE W...LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING NLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WINDS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR TUE ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING
MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRY TO BREAK THRU THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS CAUSED ME TO LIMIT
POPS TO LIKELY ON THE HIGH END THOUGH. LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MILD
STILL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE SW...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. MAY SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 280019
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST YUKON HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXISTS, BUT SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
MUCH TO SPEAK OF TODAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WINDS
AT FIVE FINGER LIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF STEPHENS PASSAGE
THREATENED SMALL CRAFT EARLIER TODAY, BUT ARE DOWN TO 18 KTS AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SKAGWAY IS ONLY REPORTING A NORTHEAST
10 KT WIND. ACROSS THE CANAL, WINDS IN HAINES HAVE BEEN A BIT
STRONGER AT 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS.

POP REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE GULF HIGH SHUNTING
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH INTO THE COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS BEING OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER
NORTH, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MAKING IT OVER THE TOP
OF THE GULF HIGH, BUT MOST OF IT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER ANY
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO CAPE DECISION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW
TO THE WEST RIDES UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE GULF HIGH. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, HOWEVER.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT,
OVERNIGHT LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW ALSO EXPECTED TO
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OF COLDER AIR IS BEING DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AS RIDING UP
AND OVER THE HIGH IN THE GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THIS
COLDER AIR REACHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. EVEN SO,
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A FINE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON LAND OR WATER, OR IN THE AIR.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS. POP AND QPF STILL NO FACTOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGH FROM PERSISTENCE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ONLY AVERAGE FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THRU THE
RIDGE TOP SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MAINLY HAVE JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND BE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SAT EVENING. SECOND
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
MOVE SE THRU THE ERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW A BIT TO THE S ON LATEST RUNS. THIS LOW SHOULD
BE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. FOR TUE INTO LATE
WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL GET THRU THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR
SAT NIGHT-MON...THEN WENT WITH MAINLY WPC FOR MON NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME
OVER THE FAR N TO CHANCE LEVELS OR LESS DUE TO THE SWD SHIFT IN
LOW TRACK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND PRECIP WILL
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM N TO S SUN. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NRN END OF THE PRECIP AREA BUT LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM THE N
SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN THIRD...THEN DURING SUN AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS CLEARING TREND SHOULD REACH
THE SRN THIRD AROUND EARLY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE N SUN AS THE NLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA LEVEL N WINDS OVER THE FAR N BY SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHARP
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE W...LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING NLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WINDS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR TUE ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING
MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRY TO BREAK THRU THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS CAUSED ME TO LIMIT
POPS TO LIKELY ON THE HIGH END THOUGH. LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MILD
STILL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE SW...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. MAY SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 280019
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST YUKON HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXISTS, BUT SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
MUCH TO SPEAK OF TODAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WINDS
AT FIVE FINGER LIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF STEPHENS PASSAGE
THREATENED SMALL CRAFT EARLIER TODAY, BUT ARE DOWN TO 18 KTS AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SKAGWAY IS ONLY REPORTING A NORTHEAST
10 KT WIND. ACROSS THE CANAL, WINDS IN HAINES HAVE BEEN A BIT
STRONGER AT 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS.

POP REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE GULF HIGH SHUNTING
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH INTO THE COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS BEING OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER
NORTH, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MAKING IT OVER THE TOP
OF THE GULF HIGH, BUT MOST OF IT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER ANY
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO CAPE DECISION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW
TO THE WEST RIDES UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE GULF HIGH. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, HOWEVER.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT,
OVERNIGHT LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW ALSO EXPECTED TO
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OF COLDER AIR IS BEING DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AS RIDING UP
AND OVER THE HIGH IN THE GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THIS
COLDER AIR REACHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. EVEN SO,
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A FINE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON LAND OR WATER, OR IN THE AIR.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS. POP AND QPF STILL NO FACTOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGH FROM PERSISTENCE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ONLY AVERAGE FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THRU THE
RIDGE TOP SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MAINLY HAVE JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND BE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SAT EVENING. SECOND
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
MOVE SE THRU THE ERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW A BIT TO THE S ON LATEST RUNS. THIS LOW SHOULD
BE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. FOR TUE INTO LATE
WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL GET THRU THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR
SAT NIGHT-MON...THEN WENT WITH MAINLY WPC FOR MON NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME
OVER THE FAR N TO CHANCE LEVELS OR LESS DUE TO THE SWD SHIFT IN
LOW TRACK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND PRECIP WILL
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM N TO S SUN. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NRN END OF THE PRECIP AREA BUT LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM THE N
SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN THIRD...THEN DURING SUN AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS CLEARING TREND SHOULD REACH
THE SRN THIRD AROUND EARLY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE N SUN AS THE NLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA LEVEL N WINDS OVER THE FAR N BY SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHARP
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE W...LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING NLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WINDS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR TUE ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING
MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRY TO BREAK THRU THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS CAUSED ME TO LIMIT
POPS TO LIKELY ON THE HIGH END THOUGH. LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MILD
STILL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE SW...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. MAY SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 280019
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST YUKON HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXISTS, BUT SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
MUCH TO SPEAK OF TODAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WINDS
AT FIVE FINGER LIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF STEPHENS PASSAGE
THREATENED SMALL CRAFT EARLIER TODAY, BUT ARE DOWN TO 18 KTS AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SKAGWAY IS ONLY REPORTING A NORTHEAST
10 KT WIND. ACROSS THE CANAL, WINDS IN HAINES HAVE BEEN A BIT
STRONGER AT 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS.

POP REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE GULF HIGH SHUNTING
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH INTO THE COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS BEING OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER
NORTH, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MAKING IT OVER THE TOP
OF THE GULF HIGH, BUT MOST OF IT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER ANY
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO CAPE DECISION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW
TO THE WEST RIDES UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE GULF HIGH. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, HOWEVER.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT,
OVERNIGHT LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW ALSO EXPECTED TO
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OF COLDER AIR IS BEING DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AS RIDING UP
AND OVER THE HIGH IN THE GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THIS
COLDER AIR REACHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. EVEN SO,
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A FINE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON LAND OR WATER, OR IN THE AIR.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS. POP AND QPF STILL NO FACTOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGH FROM PERSISTENCE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ONLY AVERAGE FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THRU THE
RIDGE TOP SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MAINLY HAVE JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND BE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SAT EVENING. SECOND
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
MOVE SE THRU THE ERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW A BIT TO THE S ON LATEST RUNS. THIS LOW SHOULD
BE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. FOR TUE INTO LATE
WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL GET THRU THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR
SAT NIGHT-MON...THEN WENT WITH MAINLY WPC FOR MON NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME
OVER THE FAR N TO CHANCE LEVELS OR LESS DUE TO THE SWD SHIFT IN
LOW TRACK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND PRECIP WILL
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM N TO S SUN. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NRN END OF THE PRECIP AREA BUT LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM THE N
SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN THIRD...THEN DURING SUN AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS CLEARING TREND SHOULD REACH
THE SRN THIRD AROUND EARLY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE N SUN AS THE NLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA LEVEL N WINDS OVER THE FAR N BY SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHARP
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE W...LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING NLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WINDS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR TUE ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING
MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRY TO BREAK THRU THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS CAUSED ME TO LIMIT
POPS TO LIKELY ON THE HIGH END THOUGH. LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MILD
STILL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE SW...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. MAY SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






000
FXAK67 PAJK 280019
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST YUKON HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXISTS, BUT SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
MUCH TO SPEAK OF TODAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WINDS
AT FIVE FINGER LIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF STEPHENS PASSAGE
THREATENED SMALL CRAFT EARLIER TODAY, BUT ARE DOWN TO 18 KTS AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SKAGWAY IS ONLY REPORTING A NORTHEAST
10 KT WIND. ACROSS THE CANAL, WINDS IN HAINES HAVE BEEN A BIT
STRONGER AT 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS.

POP REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE GULF HIGH SHUNTING
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH INTO THE COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS BEING OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER
NORTH, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MAKING IT OVER THE TOP
OF THE GULF HIGH, BUT MOST OF IT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER ANY
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO CAPE DECISION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW
TO THE WEST RIDES UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE GULF HIGH. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, HOWEVER.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT,
OVERNIGHT LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW ALSO EXPECTED TO
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OF COLDER AIR IS BEING DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AS RIDING UP
AND OVER THE HIGH IN THE GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THIS
COLDER AIR REACHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. EVEN SO,
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A FINE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON LAND OR WATER, OR IN THE AIR.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS. POP AND QPF STILL NO FACTOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGH FROM PERSISTENCE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ONLY AVERAGE FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THRU THE
RIDGE TOP SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MAINLY HAVE JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND BE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SAT EVENING. SECOND
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
MOVE SE THRU THE ERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW A BIT TO THE S ON LATEST RUNS. THIS LOW SHOULD
BE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. FOR TUE INTO LATE
WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL GET THRU THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR
SAT NIGHT-MON...THEN WENT WITH MAINLY WPC FOR MON NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME
OVER THE FAR N TO CHANCE LEVELS OR LESS DUE TO THE SWD SHIFT IN
LOW TRACK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND PRECIP WILL
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM N TO S SUN. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NRN END OF THE PRECIP AREA BUT LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM THE N
SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN THIRD...THEN DURING SUN AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS CLEARING TREND SHOULD REACH
THE SRN THIRD AROUND EARLY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE N SUN AS THE NLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA LEVEL N WINDS OVER THE FAR N BY SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHARP
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE W...LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING NLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WINDS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR TUE ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING
MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRY TO BREAK THRU THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS CAUSED ME TO LIMIT
POPS TO LIKELY ON THE HIGH END THOUGH. LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MILD
STILL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE SW...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. MAY SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

CORRECTED LAST LINE IN PARAGRAPH 4

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15



000
FXAK68 PAFC 271359
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND. A POTENT RIDGE AT THE MID-LEVELS
IS CAUSING A NEARLY 1040 MB HIGH STAMPED RIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH IS
ACTUALLY DRY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE
SAW THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...IT IS STILL EARLY AND IT COULD
CERTAINLY STILL REAR ITS HEAD AROUND SUNRISE. A VERY WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO KODIAK LATER TODAY. THE MOST IMPORTANT
VARIABLE THIS DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE FIGHT IS TO SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LOOKING
AT THE JET STREAM...THERE IS STILL 80-90 KT MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGER STORY IS SOME VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS STREAMING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON A 130 KT ZONAL JET. THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO DRIVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS SEEING BOUTS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IT
HAS REMAINED CONFINED FOR NOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TO INCLUDE
ILIAMNA AND DILLINGHAM. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO SEE SOME STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY OPEN WATER SOURCE. SO FAR HI-RES
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FOG...OR LACK THEREOF...WELL THIS MORNING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE HAS BEEN A KEEN EYE ON HOW THE
MODELS ARE TREATING THE QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY. AFTER
A LITTLE SHUFFLING THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT SEEMS THEY ARE ALL
LOCKING ON TO A CONSISTENT MESSAGE. THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL GET SWEPT UP BY A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GEM GLOBAL WAS THE FIRST TO
SHOW THIS AND HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSISTENT. THE GFS WAS LATE TO
THE PARTY...BUT NOW CONCURS WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND BRINGS AN END TO THE DEEP LAYER OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
CONDITIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NO LONGER
THINK ANY WIDESPREAD FOG WILL FORM.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UNORGANIZED UPPER
WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY
OUTPACE THE SURFACE LOW AND PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT THE
EXITING RIDGE CAUSING STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THAT GENERAL AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WHICH WILL PICK UP SPEED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE BULK OF ENERGY WILL HEAD
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT-DURATION OF
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE SNOW
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE LIGHT.

GAP WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. COOLER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AKPEN SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ALONG WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...AND A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. A NEAR STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SUGGESTIVE OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
EVEN THOUGH SNOW MAY BE A BIT ON THE WET SIDE. THIS SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY CHANGES
THE SNOW TO RAIN SAT MORNING. UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT SHEMYA BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND AK ON SUN BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS THEN HIGH THAT A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING WILL
PHASE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ON MON...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
MAINLAND AK MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN THROUGH TUE...TO SOUTHWEST AK MON
THROUGH WED...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE MON THROUGH THU. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WED AND THU WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN...MIXED INITIALLY WITH SNOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS



000
FXAK68 PAFC 271359
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND. A POTENT RIDGE AT THE MID-LEVELS
IS CAUSING A NEARLY 1040 MB HIGH STAMPED RIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH IS
ACTUALLY DRY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE
SAW THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...IT IS STILL EARLY AND IT COULD
CERTAINLY STILL REAR ITS HEAD AROUND SUNRISE. A VERY WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO KODIAK LATER TODAY. THE MOST IMPORTANT
VARIABLE THIS DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE FIGHT IS TO SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LOOKING
AT THE JET STREAM...THERE IS STILL 80-90 KT MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGER STORY IS SOME VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS STREAMING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON A 130 KT ZONAL JET. THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO DRIVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS SEEING BOUTS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IT
HAS REMAINED CONFINED FOR NOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TO INCLUDE
ILIAMNA AND DILLINGHAM. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO SEE SOME STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY OPEN WATER SOURCE. SO FAR HI-RES
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FOG...OR LACK THEREOF...WELL THIS MORNING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE HAS BEEN A KEEN EYE ON HOW THE
MODELS ARE TREATING THE QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY. AFTER
A LITTLE SHUFFLING THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT SEEMS THEY ARE ALL
LOCKING ON TO A CONSISTENT MESSAGE. THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL GET SWEPT UP BY A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GEM GLOBAL WAS THE FIRST TO
SHOW THIS AND HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSISTENT. THE GFS WAS LATE TO
THE PARTY...BUT NOW CONCURS WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND BRINGS AN END TO THE DEEP LAYER OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
CONDITIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NO LONGER
THINK ANY WIDESPREAD FOG WILL FORM.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UNORGANIZED UPPER
WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY
OUTPACE THE SURFACE LOW AND PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT THE
EXITING RIDGE CAUSING STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THAT GENERAL AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WHICH WILL PICK UP SPEED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE BULK OF ENERGY WILL HEAD
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT-DURATION OF
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE SNOW
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE LIGHT.

GAP WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. COOLER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AKPEN SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ALONG WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...AND A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. A NEAR STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SUGGESTIVE OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
EVEN THOUGH SNOW MAY BE A BIT ON THE WET SIDE. THIS SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY CHANGES
THE SNOW TO RAIN SAT MORNING. UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT SHEMYA BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND AK ON SUN BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS THEN HIGH THAT A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING WILL
PHASE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ON MON...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
MAINLAND AK MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN THROUGH TUE...TO SOUTHWEST AK MON
THROUGH WED...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE MON THROUGH THU. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WED AND THU WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN...MIXED INITIALLY WITH SNOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271359
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND. A POTENT RIDGE AT THE MID-LEVELS
IS CAUSING A NEARLY 1040 MB HIGH STAMPED RIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH IS
ACTUALLY DRY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE
SAW THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...IT IS STILL EARLY AND IT COULD
CERTAINLY STILL REAR ITS HEAD AROUND SUNRISE. A VERY WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO KODIAK LATER TODAY. THE MOST IMPORTANT
VARIABLE THIS DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE FIGHT IS TO SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LOOKING
AT THE JET STREAM...THERE IS STILL 80-90 KT MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGER STORY IS SOME VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS STREAMING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON A 130 KT ZONAL JET. THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO DRIVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS SEEING BOUTS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IT
HAS REMAINED CONFINED FOR NOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TO INCLUDE
ILIAMNA AND DILLINGHAM. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO SEE SOME STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY OPEN WATER SOURCE. SO FAR HI-RES
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FOG...OR LACK THEREOF...WELL THIS MORNING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE HAS BEEN A KEEN EYE ON HOW THE
MODELS ARE TREATING THE QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY. AFTER
A LITTLE SHUFFLING THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT SEEMS THEY ARE ALL
LOCKING ON TO A CONSISTENT MESSAGE. THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL GET SWEPT UP BY A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GEM GLOBAL WAS THE FIRST TO
SHOW THIS AND HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSISTENT. THE GFS WAS LATE TO
THE PARTY...BUT NOW CONCURS WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND BRINGS AN END TO THE DEEP LAYER OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
CONDITIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NO LONGER
THINK ANY WIDESPREAD FOG WILL FORM.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UNORGANIZED UPPER
WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY
OUTPACE THE SURFACE LOW AND PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT THE
EXITING RIDGE CAUSING STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THAT GENERAL AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WHICH WILL PICK UP SPEED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE BULK OF ENERGY WILL HEAD
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT-DURATION OF
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE SNOW
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE LIGHT.

GAP WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. COOLER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AKPEN SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ALONG WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...AND A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. A NEAR STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SUGGESTIVE OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
EVEN THOUGH SNOW MAY BE A BIT ON THE WET SIDE. THIS SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY CHANGES
THE SNOW TO RAIN SAT MORNING. UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT SHEMYA BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND AK ON SUN BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS THEN HIGH THAT A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING WILL
PHASE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ON MON...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
MAINLAND AK MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN THROUGH TUE...TO SOUTHWEST AK MON
THROUGH WED...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE MON THROUGH THU. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WED AND THU WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN...MIXED INITIALLY WITH SNOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271359
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND. A POTENT RIDGE AT THE MID-LEVELS
IS CAUSING A NEARLY 1040 MB HIGH STAMPED RIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH IS
ACTUALLY DRY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE
SAW THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...IT IS STILL EARLY AND IT COULD
CERTAINLY STILL REAR ITS HEAD AROUND SUNRISE. A VERY WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO KODIAK LATER TODAY. THE MOST IMPORTANT
VARIABLE THIS DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE FIGHT IS TO SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LOOKING
AT THE JET STREAM...THERE IS STILL 80-90 KT MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGER STORY IS SOME VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS STREAMING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON A 130 KT ZONAL JET. THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO DRIVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS SEEING BOUTS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IT
HAS REMAINED CONFINED FOR NOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TO INCLUDE
ILIAMNA AND DILLINGHAM. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO SEE SOME STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY OPEN WATER SOURCE. SO FAR HI-RES
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FOG...OR LACK THEREOF...WELL THIS MORNING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE HAS BEEN A KEEN EYE ON HOW THE
MODELS ARE TREATING THE QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY. AFTER
A LITTLE SHUFFLING THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT SEEMS THEY ARE ALL
LOCKING ON TO A CONSISTENT MESSAGE. THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL GET SWEPT UP BY A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GEM GLOBAL WAS THE FIRST TO
SHOW THIS AND HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSISTENT. THE GFS WAS LATE TO
THE PARTY...BUT NOW CONCURS WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND BRINGS AN END TO THE DEEP LAYER OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
CONDITIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NO LONGER
THINK ANY WIDESPREAD FOG WILL FORM.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UNORGANIZED UPPER
WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY
OUTPACE THE SURFACE LOW AND PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT THE
EXITING RIDGE CAUSING STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THAT GENERAL AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WHICH WILL PICK UP SPEED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE BULK OF ENERGY WILL HEAD
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT-DURATION OF
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE SNOW
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE LIGHT.

GAP WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. COOLER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AKPEN SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ALONG WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...AND A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. A NEAR STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SUGGESTIVE OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
EVEN THOUGH SNOW MAY BE A BIT ON THE WET SIDE. THIS SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY CHANGES
THE SNOW TO RAIN SAT MORNING. UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT SHEMYA BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND AK ON SUN BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS THEN HIGH THAT A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING WILL
PHASE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ON MON...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
MAINLAND AK MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN THROUGH TUE...TO SOUTHWEST AK MON
THROUGH WED...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE MON THROUGH THU. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WED AND THU WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN...MIXED INITIALLY WITH SNOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271359
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND. A POTENT RIDGE AT THE MID-LEVELS
IS CAUSING A NEARLY 1040 MB HIGH STAMPED RIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH IS
ACTUALLY DRY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE
SAW THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...IT IS STILL EARLY AND IT COULD
CERTAINLY STILL REAR ITS HEAD AROUND SUNRISE. A VERY WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO KODIAK LATER TODAY. THE MOST IMPORTANT
VARIABLE THIS DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE FIGHT IS TO SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LOOKING
AT THE JET STREAM...THERE IS STILL 80-90 KT MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGER STORY IS SOME VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS STREAMING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON A 130 KT ZONAL JET. THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO DRIVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS SEEING BOUTS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IT
HAS REMAINED CONFINED FOR NOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TO INCLUDE
ILIAMNA AND DILLINGHAM. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO SEE SOME STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY OPEN WATER SOURCE. SO FAR HI-RES
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FOG...OR LACK THEREOF...WELL THIS MORNING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE HAS BEEN A KEEN EYE ON HOW THE
MODELS ARE TREATING THE QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY. AFTER
A LITTLE SHUFFLING THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT SEEMS THEY ARE ALL
LOCKING ON TO A CONSISTENT MESSAGE. THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL GET SWEPT UP BY A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GEM GLOBAL WAS THE FIRST TO
SHOW THIS AND HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSISTENT. THE GFS WAS LATE TO
THE PARTY...BUT NOW CONCURS WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND BRINGS AN END TO THE DEEP LAYER OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
CONDITIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NO LONGER
THINK ANY WIDESPREAD FOG WILL FORM.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UNORGANIZED UPPER
WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY
OUTPACE THE SURFACE LOW AND PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT THE
EXITING RIDGE CAUSING STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THAT GENERAL AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WHICH WILL PICK UP SPEED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE BULK OF ENERGY WILL HEAD
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT-DURATION OF
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE SNOW
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE LIGHT.

GAP WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. COOLER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AKPEN SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ALONG WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...AND A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. A NEAR STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SUGGESTIVE OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
EVEN THOUGH SNOW MAY BE A BIT ON THE WET SIDE. THIS SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY CHANGES
THE SNOW TO RAIN SAT MORNING. UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT SHEMYA BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND AK ON SUN BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS THEN HIGH THAT A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING WILL
PHASE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ON MON...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
MAINLAND AK MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN THROUGH TUE...TO SOUTHWEST AK MON
THROUGH WED...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE MON THROUGH THU. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WED AND THU WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN...MIXED INITIALLY WITH SNOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271359
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND. A POTENT RIDGE AT THE MID-LEVELS
IS CAUSING A NEARLY 1040 MB HIGH STAMPED RIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH IS
ACTUALLY DRY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE
SAW THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...IT IS STILL EARLY AND IT COULD
CERTAINLY STILL REAR ITS HEAD AROUND SUNRISE. A VERY WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO KODIAK LATER TODAY. THE MOST IMPORTANT
VARIABLE THIS DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE FIGHT IS TO SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LOOKING
AT THE JET STREAM...THERE IS STILL 80-90 KT MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGER STORY IS SOME VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS STREAMING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON A 130 KT ZONAL JET. THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO DRIVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS SEEING BOUTS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IT
HAS REMAINED CONFINED FOR NOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TO INCLUDE
ILIAMNA AND DILLINGHAM. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO SEE SOME STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY OPEN WATER SOURCE. SO FAR HI-RES
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FOG...OR LACK THEREOF...WELL THIS MORNING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE HAS BEEN A KEEN EYE ON HOW THE
MODELS ARE TREATING THE QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY. AFTER
A LITTLE SHUFFLING THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT SEEMS THEY ARE ALL
LOCKING ON TO A CONSISTENT MESSAGE. THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL GET SWEPT UP BY A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GEM GLOBAL WAS THE FIRST TO
SHOW THIS AND HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSISTENT. THE GFS WAS LATE TO
THE PARTY...BUT NOW CONCURS WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND BRINGS AN END TO THE DEEP LAYER OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
CONDITIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION IN NORTHERN COOK
INLET OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NO LONGER
THINK ANY WIDESPREAD FOG WILL FORM.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UNORGANIZED UPPER
WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY
OUTPACE THE SURFACE LOW AND PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT THE
EXITING RIDGE CAUSING STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THAT GENERAL AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WHICH WILL PICK UP SPEED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE BULK OF ENERGY WILL HEAD
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT-DURATION OF
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE SNOW
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE LIGHT.

GAP WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. COOLER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AKPEN SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ALONG WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...AND A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. A NEAR STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SUGGESTIVE OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
EVEN THOUGH SNOW MAY BE A BIT ON THE WET SIDE. THIS SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY CHANGES
THE SNOW TO RAIN SAT MORNING. UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT SHEMYA BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND AK ON SUN BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS THEN HIGH THAT A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING WILL
PHASE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ON MON...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
MAINLAND AK MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN THROUGH TUE...TO SOUTHWEST AK MON
THROUGH WED...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE MON THROUGH THU. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WED AND THU WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN...MIXED INITIALLY WITH SNOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS




000
FXAK67 PAJK 271305
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUITE WEATHER FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT: DRY, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, MILD DAY TIME TEMPS
AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THE INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING
OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF PROGRESSES
EASTWARD MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE
YUKON HIGH THAT PRODUCED SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE AK GULF HIGH MOVES IN WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY. WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AK GULF WILL ALSO
BECOME LIGHT WITH THE BUILDING HIGH. DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WERE THE ONLY THING
THAT HAD SOME MODEL SPREAD. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND
INSOLATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT COULD BE A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WINDS WILL
HAVE DROPPED. MOS GUIDANCE AS STILL SHOWING A SPREAD SOMETIMES
UP TO 5 DEGREES, SO KEPT WITH A MID RANGE SOLUTION.

MODELS WERE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS DOES HAVE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO
FAR OFFSHORE BUT THE NAM/ECMWF WILL STILL IN LINE. REFRESHED
INHERITED GRIDS WITH 06Z NAM, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE RESULTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR ZONAL
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THEIR
GOOD CONSISTENCY. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM AND AHEAD
OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AS A SHORT BREAK. EXPECT ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT AND INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY...RESULTING QUITE
BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST TO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES LARGER AT
THIS POINT AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 271305
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUITE WEATHER FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT: DRY, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, MILD DAY TIME TEMPS
AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THE INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING
OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF PROGRESSES
EASTWARD MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE
YUKON HIGH THAT PRODUCED SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE AK GULF HIGH MOVES IN WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY. WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AK GULF WILL ALSO
BECOME LIGHT WITH THE BUILDING HIGH. DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WERE THE ONLY THING
THAT HAD SOME MODEL SPREAD. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND
INSOLATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT COULD BE A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WINDS WILL
HAVE DROPPED. MOS GUIDANCE AS STILL SHOWING A SPREAD SOMETIMES
UP TO 5 DEGREES, SO KEPT WITH A MID RANGE SOLUTION.

MODELS WERE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS DOES HAVE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO
FAR OFFSHORE BUT THE NAM/ECMWF WILL STILL IN LINE. REFRESHED
INHERITED GRIDS WITH 06Z NAM, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE RESULTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR ZONAL
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THEIR
GOOD CONSISTENCY. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM AND AHEAD
OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AS A SHORT BREAK. EXPECT ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT AND INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY...RESULTING QUITE
BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST TO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES LARGER AT
THIS POINT AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 271305
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUITE WEATHER FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT: DRY, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, MILD DAY TIME TEMPS
AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THE INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING
OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF PROGRESSES
EASTWARD MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE
YUKON HIGH THAT PRODUCED SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE AK GULF HIGH MOVES IN WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY. WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AK GULF WILL ALSO
BECOME LIGHT WITH THE BUILDING HIGH. DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WERE THE ONLY THING
THAT HAD SOME MODEL SPREAD. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND
INSOLATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT COULD BE A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WINDS WILL
HAVE DROPPED. MOS GUIDANCE AS STILL SHOWING A SPREAD SOMETIMES
UP TO 5 DEGREES, SO KEPT WITH A MID RANGE SOLUTION.

MODELS WERE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS DOES HAVE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO
FAR OFFSHORE BUT THE NAM/ECMWF WILL STILL IN LINE. REFRESHED
INHERITED GRIDS WITH 06Z NAM, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE RESULTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR ZONAL
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THEIR
GOOD CONSISTENCY. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM AND AHEAD
OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AS A SHORT BREAK. EXPECT ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT AND INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY...RESULTING QUITE
BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST TO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES LARGER AT
THIS POINT AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 271305
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUITE WEATHER FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT: DRY, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, MILD DAY TIME TEMPS
AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THE INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING
OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF PROGRESSES
EASTWARD MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE
YUKON HIGH THAT PRODUCED SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE AK GULF HIGH MOVES IN WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY. WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AK GULF WILL ALSO
BECOME LIGHT WITH THE BUILDING HIGH. DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WERE THE ONLY THING
THAT HAD SOME MODEL SPREAD. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND
INSOLATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT COULD BE A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WINDS WILL
HAVE DROPPED. MOS GUIDANCE AS STILL SHOWING A SPREAD SOMETIMES
UP TO 5 DEGREES, SO KEPT WITH A MID RANGE SOLUTION.

MODELS WERE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS DOES HAVE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO
FAR OFFSHORE BUT THE NAM/ECMWF WILL STILL IN LINE. REFRESHED
INHERITED GRIDS WITH 06Z NAM, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE RESULTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR ZONAL
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THEIR
GOOD CONSISTENCY. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM AND AHEAD
OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AS A SHORT BREAK. EXPECT ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT AND INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY...RESULTING QUITE
BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST TO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES LARGER AT
THIS POINT AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









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