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000
FXAK67 PAJK 291352 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL INVERTED TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE COUPLE DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE.
HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED
EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER
THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT
ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN










000
FXAK67 PAJK 291352 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL INVERTED TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE COUPLE DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE.
HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED
EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER
THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT
ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN











000
FXAK67 PAJK 291348
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL
INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE
COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN
ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA
BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE
LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN







000
FXAK67 PAJK 291348
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL
INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE
COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN
ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA
BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE
LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN







  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 291253
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE ENHANCED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AREA.
THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ULTIMATELY CREATED A DEFORMATION BAND
OVER THE COOK INLET AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO LINGER A TAD LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. THE PHASING OF THESE TWO LOWS WILL HAVE A LASTING IMPACT
ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AS TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED BETWEEN THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS IT EJECTS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING
SEA...WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z RAOBS AT ST PAUL ISLAND REPORTING 500
MB HEIGHTS BETWEEN 583 AND 584 DECAMETERS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOW WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS...THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA ARE IN TEXTBOOK OMEGA
BLOCK CONFIGURATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO DEPICTING AN
EASTERLY WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER ROTATING
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE 00Z NAM
WAS A DISTINCT OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS
IT TRIED TO PLACE THIS FEATURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM CORRECTED THIS INITIALIZATION DEFECT AND
PLACED THE UPPER LOW IN IN THE CORRECT LOCATION COMPARED TO
CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER. THERE ARE STILL SMALL DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD HAVE VERY MINOR IMPACTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE WAVES PUSHES INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED THIS MORNING FOR FORECAST UPDATES
GIVEN THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND BEST INITIALIZATION.
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE
BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
BE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE MAT-
SU VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL BECOMES TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. THE PATCHY FOG SHOULD
BE QUICK TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN EASTERLY WAVE
PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS IN THE MAT-SU VALLEY
AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ANCHORAGE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THIS IS LOW AND OPTED TO
NEGLECT IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
BUILD EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A POTENT LONGWAVE RIDGE THOROUGHLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND EJECT A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

OMEGA BLOCKING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
REGION ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH SHOWERS RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE...WITH RAIN AND SHOWER THREATS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. RIDGING WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY ARISES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE GULF AND INTERACTING WITH THE CURRENT CLOSED
LOW...WHILE THE CANADIAN GDPS AND GFS BUILD THE BERING RIDGE INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND
APPROACH...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

MCLAY/JA JUL 14



  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 290939
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
139 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...ARE SIMILAR OUT TO 60 HOURS OR SO IN THE UPPER LEVELS
AND AT THE SURFACE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED LOW HEIGHT CENTER THAT WAS OVER RUBY
MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS DROPPED SOUTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE 556 DAM LOW CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
MORNING AND WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AS THE 588
DAM CENTER OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DRIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 570 DAM HEIGHTS WILL PUSH EAST
OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. AT 850 HPA...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE 3 TO 5 CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN
BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL BY LATE FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO BARTER ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXTEND FROM
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO FAIRBANKS TO MCKENZIE BAY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND LIE FROM
THE PRIBILOFS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
SLOWLY WORK EAST AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. NEXT SHOT OF
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND SPREADS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA AS LOW PULLS
OUT. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AROUND
BARTER ISLAND...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED. SOME WINDS OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL BE DYING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY REASON TO CLEAR THEM OUT...EVEN WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IN PLACE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY NICE OUT WEST...AND SEE
NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT. WITH RIDGE PUSHING NORTH
AND EAST...NO CHANGES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AS WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
BERING STRAIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

INTERIOR...NOT MUCH GOING ON NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER...SOUTHEAST OF
TOK. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY...THEN WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 70S BY THURSDAY.
LOOKS LIKE AUGUST WILL START OFF NICE...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE
THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO CLOUDY AND WET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER NOT MUCH EXPECTED WIND WISE
AND CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL IN MANY AREAS AS FAR AS BURNABLE
FUELS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 290939
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
139 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...ARE SIMILAR OUT TO 60 HOURS OR SO IN THE UPPER LEVELS
AND AT THE SURFACE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED LOW HEIGHT CENTER THAT WAS OVER RUBY
MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS DROPPED SOUTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE 556 DAM LOW CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
MORNING AND WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AS THE 588
DAM CENTER OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DRIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 570 DAM HEIGHTS WILL PUSH EAST
OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. AT 850 HPA...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE 3 TO 5 CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN
BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL BY LATE FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO BARTER ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXTEND FROM
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO FAIRBANKS TO MCKENZIE BAY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND LIE FROM
THE PRIBILOFS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
SLOWLY WORK EAST AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. NEXT SHOT OF
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND SPREADS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA AS LOW PULLS
OUT. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AROUND
BARTER ISLAND...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED. SOME WINDS OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL BE DYING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY REASON TO CLEAR THEM OUT...EVEN WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IN PLACE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY NICE OUT WEST...AND SEE
NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT. WITH RIDGE PUSHING NORTH
AND EAST...NO CHANGES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AS WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
BERING STRAIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

INTERIOR...NOT MUCH GOING ON NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER...SOUTHEAST OF
TOK. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY...THEN WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 70S BY THURSDAY.
LOOKS LIKE AUGUST WILL START OFF NICE...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE
THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO CLOUDY AND WET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER NOT MUCH EXPECTED WIND WISE
AND CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL IN MANY AREAS AS FAR AS BURNABLE
FUELS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 290013
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
413 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BARROW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TUE AND SOUTHEAST WED BE NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY AT 4PM WED. THE MODELS BRING WINDS UP NEARLY TO
BRISK WIND BEHIND THIS HIGH...BUT WE EXPECT JUST LOCAL 25 OR 30
KT FROM IT IN THE COASTAL ZONES(THAT IS...NEAR CAPE LISBURNE).
THE STRONGER WINDS WEST OF THE HIGH CENTER ARE DUE TO A WEAK
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA THAT SEA WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES EAST FASTER
THAN THE HIGH CENTER.

IN THE INTERIOR ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MODELS HAVE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE BROOKS RANGE INCREASING AS WELL. ITS ALREADY
WIND THROUGH THE PASSES...AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR WESTERLY REGIME WILL BE CLEARING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AT LEAST...WITH SOME
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY WAVES AS THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. EXPECT
A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR...WHICH
COMBINED WITH LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL GIVE SOME MODEST GAP FLOW THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS
WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE MAY SEE 30 PERCENT AND 25 MPH IN ZONE 218 ON TUESDAY...BUT NO
RED FLAG DUE TO FUEL CONDITION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 290013
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
413 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BARROW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TUE AND SOUTHEAST WED BE NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY AT 4PM WED. THE MODELS BRING WINDS UP NEARLY TO
BRISK WIND BEHIND THIS HIGH...BUT WE EXPECT JUST LOCAL 25 OR 30
KT FROM IT IN THE COASTAL ZONES(THAT IS...NEAR CAPE LISBURNE).
THE STRONGER WINDS WEST OF THE HIGH CENTER ARE DUE TO A WEAK
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA THAT SEA WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES EAST FASTER
THAN THE HIGH CENTER.

IN THE INTERIOR ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MODELS HAVE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE BROOKS RANGE INCREASING AS WELL. ITS ALREADY
WIND THROUGH THE PASSES...AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR WESTERLY REGIME WILL BE CLEARING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AT LEAST...WITH SOME
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY WAVES AS THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. EXPECT
A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR...WHICH
COMBINED WITH LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL GIVE SOME MODEST GAP FLOW THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS
WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE MAY SEE 30 PERCENT AND 25 MPH IN ZONE 218 ON TUESDAY...BUT NO
RED FLAG DUE TO FUEL CONDITION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER WRN CANADA. TWO UPPER IMPULSES ARE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.
ONE IS POISED TO ENTER SE AK BY THIS EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST
ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND IMPULSE
IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE BASE OF THE GULF TROUGH...AND IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE DURING TUE
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AOA 1 INCH AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THUS EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT REINVIGORATES WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE.

 AT THE SURFACE...MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS
THE FIRST UPPER IMPULSE ENTERS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...30-40 KT
LOW- LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND AID IN
SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.

 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. UPDATED PRESSURE/WINDS USING A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM...WITH MANUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT IN ORDER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL SLYS. PREVIOUS POP/SKY FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THUS FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.
 &&

.LONG TERM...THIS SECOND IMPULSE DISCUSSED ABOVE CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PANHANDLE AND BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THUS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH. YAKUTAT WILL ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WETTER AS
THE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY BEFORE EVERYONE BEGINS A
TREND TO DRIER AIR AS THE LARGESCALE LOW BEGINS RETROGRADING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TEMPORARY JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO PART BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF SUN LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CLOUDS LOOK
TO RE-ENTER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
BEGINS RESPONDING TO A GENTLE NUDGE...PERHAPS BY SOME ENERGY
DIVING DOWNSTREAM INTO MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT AS LAST
PACKAGE BECAUSE ONLY THE ECMWF NOW GOING WET BONA FIDE. GEM
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HAS SIDED WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THE
LARGESCALE LOW IN THE SW GULF. THUS TRENDED DOWN THE LIKELY RAIN
WE HAD FROM LAST NIGHT TO CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT LEFT THE
COASTAL 60 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS FINALLY INDICATES THE GULF LOW BEING DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASINGLY BECOME BENIGN THROUGH THE MID-RANGE.
DID PERHAPS GET A LITTLE EXCITED BY ADDING A SMALL CRAFT FOR LYNN
CANAL...AS THE ECMWF SHOWING GRADIENTS RISING ABOVE 2 MB THEN...HOWEVER
JET WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MESOSCALE EFFECTS NEGLIGIBLE...SO THIS MAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY-HANDED.
CHANNEL BREEZES MAY BEGIN TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING INCREASES. WHILE CURRENTLY MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
REPRESENTED FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE HINT OF A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE PERHAPS
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/WEST TO 10 OR 15 KT. SAVED FOR
LATER AS MODELS IMPROVE AGREEMENT. DID VIOLATE GRADIENT FOR CROSS
SOUND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP.
WHILE WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY...GFS ACTUALLY GOING
70S FOR PARTS FRIDAY, CROSS SOUND WESTERLIES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR MOST ISSUES.
RELIED ON ECMWF AS A GUIDE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK PREFERRED GFS/GEM BUT GRADUALLY HEDGED BETS OF DRY WEATHER
EXTENDING INTO EARLY PART OF WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
STUBBORNNESS FROM THE ECMWF THAT IT WILL BE WET ONCE AGAIN.

 &&

 .AVIATION...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SUBSEQUENTLY
FALLING AS A RESULT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT...WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING.

 &&

 .MARINE...A 30-40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT...AND WILL AID IN SMALL CRAFT TO
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 25-35 KT. ELSEWHERE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER CROSS SOUND RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED ELY WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH. OTHERWISE...NLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GLACIER BAY INTO LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO FLIP TO SLY BY TUE AFTERNOON.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.


$$

GARNER/JWA








000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER WRN CANADA. TWO UPPER IMPULSES ARE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.
ONE IS POISED TO ENTER SE AK BY THIS EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST
ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND IMPULSE
IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE BASE OF THE GULF TROUGH...AND IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE DURING TUE
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AOA 1 INCH AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THUS EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT REINVIGORATES WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE.

 AT THE SURFACE...MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS
THE FIRST UPPER IMPULSE ENTERS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...30-40 KT
LOW- LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND AID IN
SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.

 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. UPDATED PRESSURE/WINDS USING A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM...WITH MANUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT IN ORDER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL SLYS. PREVIOUS POP/SKY FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THUS FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.
 &&

.LONG TERM...THIS SECOND IMPULSE DISCUSSED ABOVE CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PANHANDLE AND BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THUS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH. YAKUTAT WILL ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WETTER AS
THE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY BEFORE EVERYONE BEGINS A
TREND TO DRIER AIR AS THE LARGESCALE LOW BEGINS RETROGRADING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TEMPORARY JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO PART BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF SUN LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CLOUDS LOOK
TO RE-ENTER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
BEGINS RESPONDING TO A GENTLE NUDGE...PERHAPS BY SOME ENERGY
DIVING DOWNSTREAM INTO MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT AS LAST
PACKAGE BECAUSE ONLY THE ECMWF NOW GOING WET BONA FIDE. GEM
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HAS SIDED WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THE
LARGESCALE LOW IN THE SW GULF. THUS TRENDED DOWN THE LIKELY RAIN
WE HAD FROM LAST NIGHT TO CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT LEFT THE
COASTAL 60 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS FINALLY INDICATES THE GULF LOW BEING DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASINGLY BECOME BENIGN THROUGH THE MID-RANGE.
DID PERHAPS GET A LITTLE EXCITED BY ADDING A SMALL CRAFT FOR LYNN
CANAL...AS THE ECMWF SHOWING GRADIENTS RISING ABOVE 2 MB THEN...HOWEVER
JET WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MESOSCALE EFFECTS NEGLIGIBLE...SO THIS MAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY-HANDED.
CHANNEL BREEZES MAY BEGIN TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING INCREASES. WHILE CURRENTLY MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
REPRESENTED FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE HINT OF A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE PERHAPS
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/WEST TO 10 OR 15 KT. SAVED FOR
LATER AS MODELS IMPROVE AGREEMENT. DID VIOLATE GRADIENT FOR CROSS
SOUND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP.
WHILE WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY...GFS ACTUALLY GOING
70S FOR PARTS FRIDAY, CROSS SOUND WESTERLIES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR MOST ISSUES.
RELIED ON ECMWF AS A GUIDE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK PREFERRED GFS/GEM BUT GRADUALLY HEDGED BETS OF DRY WEATHER
EXTENDING INTO EARLY PART OF WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
STUBBORNNESS FROM THE ECMWF THAT IT WILL BE WET ONCE AGAIN.

 &&

 .AVIATION...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SUBSEQUENTLY
FALLING AS A RESULT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT...WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING.

 &&

 .MARINE...A 30-40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT...AND WILL AID IN SMALL CRAFT TO
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 25-35 KT. ELSEWHERE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER CROSS SOUND RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED ELY WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH. OTHERWISE...NLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GLACIER BAY INTO LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO FLIP TO SLY BY TUE AFTERNOON.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.


$$

GARNER/JWA








000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER WRN CANADA. TWO UPPER IMPULSES ARE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.
ONE IS POISED TO ENTER SE AK BY THIS EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST
ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND IMPULSE
IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE BASE OF THE GULF TROUGH...AND IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE DURING TUE
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AOA 1 INCH AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THUS EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT REINVIGORATES WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE.

 AT THE SURFACE...MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS
THE FIRST UPPER IMPULSE ENTERS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...30-40 KT
LOW- LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND AID IN
SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.

 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. UPDATED PRESSURE/WINDS USING A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM...WITH MANUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT IN ORDER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL SLYS. PREVIOUS POP/SKY FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THUS FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.
 &&

.LONG TERM...THIS SECOND IMPULSE DISCUSSED ABOVE CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PANHANDLE AND BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THUS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH. YAKUTAT WILL ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WETTER AS
THE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY BEFORE EVERYONE BEGINS A
TREND TO DRIER AIR AS THE LARGESCALE LOW BEGINS RETROGRADING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TEMPORARY JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO PART BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF SUN LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CLOUDS LOOK
TO RE-ENTER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
BEGINS RESPONDING TO A GENTLE NUDGE...PERHAPS BY SOME ENERGY
DIVING DOWNSTREAM INTO MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT AS LAST
PACKAGE BECAUSE ONLY THE ECMWF NOW GOING WET BONA FIDE. GEM
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HAS SIDED WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THE
LARGESCALE LOW IN THE SW GULF. THUS TRENDED DOWN THE LIKELY RAIN
WE HAD FROM LAST NIGHT TO CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT LEFT THE
COASTAL 60 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS FINALLY INDICATES THE GULF LOW BEING DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASINGLY BECOME BENIGN THROUGH THE MID-RANGE.
DID PERHAPS GET A LITTLE EXCITED BY ADDING A SMALL CRAFT FOR LYNN
CANAL...AS THE ECMWF SHOWING GRADIENTS RISING ABOVE 2 MB THEN...HOWEVER
JET WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MESOSCALE EFFECTS NEGLIGIBLE...SO THIS MAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY-HANDED.
CHANNEL BREEZES MAY BEGIN TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING INCREASES. WHILE CURRENTLY MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
REPRESENTED FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE HINT OF A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE PERHAPS
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/WEST TO 10 OR 15 KT. SAVED FOR
LATER AS MODELS IMPROVE AGREEMENT. DID VIOLATE GRADIENT FOR CROSS
SOUND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP.
WHILE WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY...GFS ACTUALLY GOING
70S FOR PARTS FRIDAY, CROSS SOUND WESTERLIES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR MOST ISSUES.
RELIED ON ECMWF AS A GUIDE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK PREFERRED GFS/GEM BUT GRADUALLY HEDGED BETS OF DRY WEATHER
EXTENDING INTO EARLY PART OF WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
STUBBORNNESS FROM THE ECMWF THAT IT WILL BE WET ONCE AGAIN.

 &&

 .AVIATION...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SUBSEQUENTLY
FALLING AS A RESULT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT...WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING.

 &&

 .MARINE...A 30-40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT...AND WILL AID IN SMALL CRAFT TO
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 25-35 KT. ELSEWHERE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER CROSS SOUND RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED ELY WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH. OTHERWISE...NLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GLACIER BAY INTO LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO FLIP TO SLY BY TUE AFTERNOON.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.


$$

GARNER/JWA








000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER WRN CANADA. TWO UPPER IMPULSES ARE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.
ONE IS POISED TO ENTER SE AK BY THIS EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST
ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND IMPULSE
IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE BASE OF THE GULF TROUGH...AND IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE DURING TUE
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AOA 1 INCH AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THUS EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT REINVIGORATES WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE.

 AT THE SURFACE...MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS
THE FIRST UPPER IMPULSE ENTERS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...30-40 KT
LOW- LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND AID IN
SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.

 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. UPDATED PRESSURE/WINDS USING A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM...WITH MANUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT IN ORDER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL SLYS. PREVIOUS POP/SKY FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THUS FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.
 &&

.LONG TERM...THIS SECOND IMPULSE DISCUSSED ABOVE CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PANHANDLE AND BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THUS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH. YAKUTAT WILL ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WETTER AS
THE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY BEFORE EVERYONE BEGINS A
TREND TO DRIER AIR AS THE LARGESCALE LOW BEGINS RETROGRADING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TEMPORARY JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO PART BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF SUN LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CLOUDS LOOK
TO RE-ENTER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
BEGINS RESPONDING TO A GENTLE NUDGE...PERHAPS BY SOME ENERGY
DIVING DOWNSTREAM INTO MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT AS LAST
PACKAGE BECAUSE ONLY THE ECMWF NOW GOING WET BONA FIDE. GEM
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HAS SIDED WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THE
LARGESCALE LOW IN THE SW GULF. THUS TRENDED DOWN THE LIKELY RAIN
WE HAD FROM LAST NIGHT TO CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT LEFT THE
COASTAL 60 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS FINALLY INDICATES THE GULF LOW BEING DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASINGLY BECOME BENIGN THROUGH THE MID-RANGE.
DID PERHAPS GET A LITTLE EXCITED BY ADDING A SMALL CRAFT FOR LYNN
CANAL...AS THE ECMWF SHOWING GRADIENTS RISING ABOVE 2 MB THEN...HOWEVER
JET WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MESOSCALE EFFECTS NEGLIGIBLE...SO THIS MAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY-HANDED.
CHANNEL BREEZES MAY BEGIN TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING INCREASES. WHILE CURRENTLY MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
REPRESENTED FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE HINT OF A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE PERHAPS
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/WEST TO 10 OR 15 KT. SAVED FOR
LATER AS MODELS IMPROVE AGREEMENT. DID VIOLATE GRADIENT FOR CROSS
SOUND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP.
WHILE WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY...GFS ACTUALLY GOING
70S FOR PARTS FRIDAY, CROSS SOUND WESTERLIES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR MOST ISSUES.
RELIED ON ECMWF AS A GUIDE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK PREFERRED GFS/GEM BUT GRADUALLY HEDGED BETS OF DRY WEATHER
EXTENDING INTO EARLY PART OF WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
STUBBORNNESS FROM THE ECMWF THAT IT WILL BE WET ONCE AGAIN.

 &&

 .AVIATION...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SUBSEQUENTLY
FALLING AS A RESULT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT...WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING.

 &&

 .MARINE...A 30-40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT...AND WILL AID IN SMALL CRAFT TO
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 25-35 KT. ELSEWHERE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER CROSS SOUND RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED ELY WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH. OTHERWISE...NLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GLACIER BAY INTO LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO FLIP TO SLY BY TUE AFTERNOON.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.


$$

GARNER/JWA








000
FXAK68 PAFC 282141
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
141 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA AND A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE GULF. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITHIN THE MAINLAND TROUGH
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH
JUST A FEW DIFFERENCES IN MINOR DETAILS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL
RAPIDLY PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DECENT RATES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEYS THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA TONIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW. ON TUESDAY THE BERING RIDGE WILL ASSERT ITSELF INTO
THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
"WRAP AROUND" MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SHOWERS/RAIN...THEN ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN TAPER
OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH...ENDING BY TUESDAY EVENING. THEN THE EASTERN BERING RIDGE
WILL BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE KAMCHATKA/WESTERN BERING LOW
WILL PUSH UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR EAST
AS ATKA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OMEGA BLOCKING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
REGION ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH SHOWERS RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE...WITH RAIN AND SHOWER THREATS ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT. RIDGING WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY ARISES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE GULF AND INTERACTING WITH THE CURRENT CLOSED
LOW...WHILE THE CANADIAN GDPS AND GFS BUILD THE BERING RIDGE INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND
APPROACH...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 282141
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
141 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA AND A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE GULF. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITHIN THE MAINLAND TROUGH
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH
JUST A FEW DIFFERENCES IN MINOR DETAILS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL
RAPIDLY PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DECENT RATES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEYS THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA TONIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW. ON TUESDAY THE BERING RIDGE WILL ASSERT ITSELF INTO
THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
"WRAP AROUND" MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SHOWERS/RAIN...THEN ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN TAPER
OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH...ENDING BY TUESDAY EVENING. THEN THE EASTERN BERING RIDGE
WILL BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE KAMCHATKA/WESTERN BERING LOW
WILL PUSH UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR EAST
AS ATKA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OMEGA BLOCKING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
REGION ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH SHOWERS RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE...WITH RAIN AND SHOWER THREATS ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT. RIDGING WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY ARISES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE GULF AND INTERACTING WITH THE CURRENT CLOSED
LOW...WHILE THE CANADIAN GDPS AND GFS BUILD THE BERING RIDGE INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND
APPROACH...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 282141
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
141 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA AND A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE GULF. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITHIN THE MAINLAND TROUGH
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH
JUST A FEW DIFFERENCES IN MINOR DETAILS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL
RAPIDLY PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DECENT RATES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEYS THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA TONIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW. ON TUESDAY THE BERING RIDGE WILL ASSERT ITSELF INTO
THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
"WRAP AROUND" MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SHOWERS/RAIN...THEN ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN TAPER
OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH...ENDING BY TUESDAY EVENING. THEN THE EASTERN BERING RIDGE
WILL BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE KAMCHATKA/WESTERN BERING LOW
WILL PUSH UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR EAST
AS ATKA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OMEGA BLOCKING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
REGION ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH SHOWERS RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE...WITH RAIN AND SHOWER THREATS ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT. RIDGING WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY ARISES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE GULF AND INTERACTING WITH THE CURRENT CLOSED
LOW...WHILE THE CANADIAN GDPS AND GFS BUILD THE BERING RIDGE INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND
APPROACH...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 282141
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
141 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA AND A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE GULF. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITHIN THE MAINLAND TROUGH
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH
JUST A FEW DIFFERENCES IN MINOR DETAILS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL
RAPIDLY PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DECENT RATES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEYS THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA TONIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW. ON TUESDAY THE BERING RIDGE WILL ASSERT ITSELF INTO
THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
"WRAP AROUND" MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SHOWERS/RAIN...THEN ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN TAPER
OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH...ENDING BY TUESDAY EVENING. THEN THE EASTERN BERING RIDGE
WILL BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE KAMCHATKA/WESTERN BERING LOW
WILL PUSH UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR EAST
AS ATKA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OMEGA BLOCKING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
REGION ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH SHOWERS RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE...WITH RAIN AND SHOWER THREATS ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT. RIDGING WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY ARISES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE GULF AND INTERACTING WITH THE CURRENT CLOSED
LOW...WHILE THE CANADIAN GDPS AND GFS BUILD THE BERING RIDGE INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND
APPROACH...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 281323
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
523 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AK GULF REMAINS IN
PLACE DUE TO BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EXTENDING
OVER THE ALEUTIANS TO THE WEST AND OVER THE CONUS TO THE EAST. AT
THE SURFACE A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING SHORT WAVES
CYCLONICALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A 1014 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN AK GULF WITH FIRST FRONTAL
BAND MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND A SECOND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE N PACIFIC. THE FIRST BAND IS MOVING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG. A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG THE SECOND FRONT WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL
BRING IN 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH, HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG AND
VERY LOW CLOUD COVER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL
WATERS WITH THE ADVANCING LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 30 TO 35 KT 850 MB LLJ. SMALL CRAFT WINDS
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND AS OF NOW
THINK LOCATIONS SUCH AS SUMNER STRAIT, THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND CROSS SOUND WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL AGAIN BE SMALL DUE TO THE PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH MORE
SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS. THE ECMWF/NAM INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE 00Z RUNS BLENDED INTO INHERITED GRIDS. CHANGES WERE MINOR WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING OUR
WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK BUT OSCILLATE
FROM BEING OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON TUES TO THE SW GULF WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST ENERGY
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AND
ALLOW FOR SOME MORE BREAKS IN THE RAIN.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL CONTINUE THE
RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. THEN AS THE LOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SE TO NW AND
BECOME MORE SHOWERY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE DRYING TREND THURS INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE  ECMWF STILL KEEPS SOME
PRECIP AROUND...WHICH IS A BIAS FOR THAT MODEL.

ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERALL. LATEST MODELS
HAD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW IN THE GULF ON TUES AND A STRONGER RIDGE
AS WELL TUE NIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLE SO INCORPORATED THOSE
DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER THE MODELS ALSO HAD LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS OVER
THE GULF. DID NOT WANT TO DECREASE THE SPEEDS THAT MUCH SO LIMITED
CHANGES THERE TO ABOUT 5KTS. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS HAVE LARGER
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT AND THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN MOVING IN.
HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWED RAIN MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...SO
INCREASE POPS TO RAIN LIKELY WHERE BOTH MODELS HAD RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.


$$

PRB/FERRIN








000
FXAK69 PAFG 281302
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SPLIT IN TWO AS A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES TO BANKS
ISLAND 4AM WED...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM BETTLES TO KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEST OF ANCHORAGE BY 4AM TUE. STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE
INTERIOR TO EXTEND ALONG 65 NORTH LATITUDE 4PM WED.

SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND BUILD TO 1031 MB TUE AM WEST OF BARROW. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WHICH MOVES SOUTH
TO BANKS ISLAND 4AM WED. TUE NIGHT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY
4PM WED. 1016 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE TO KING SALMON BY
10 PM MON NIGHT. 1016 MB LOW NEAR EAGLE WILL MOVE TO WHITEHORSE
TUE AM.

MODELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...INCLUDING THE UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND GRAZING NORTHEAST AK ON
TUE INTO WED. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THERE IS WIDE VARIANCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF A LOW TREKING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND ON HOW
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY TUE FROM BARROW
TO CANADA AS SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH...THEN
WINDS TURNING BACK TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OF
BARROW WED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUE
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE LOW ALOFT
MOVING SOUTH TOWARD BANKS ISLAND.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN ENDING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WHILE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...THEN ENDING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH EARLY TUE AS SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG TODAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN NORTON...THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND NORTH
SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK INSTABILITY UNDER WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. FREQUENT SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE DENALI AREA FROM THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH
OVER WESTERN AK TODAY. ON TUE THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTHEAST...AND AS
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH WED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
CORNER OF THE INTERIOR. REMAINDER WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER TUE
THROUGH WED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTENSIVE DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TUE OVER ALL AREAS
NW OF DELTA JUNCTION AS RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD APPROACH 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN INTERIOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 281302
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SPLIT IN TWO AS A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES TO BANKS
ISLAND 4AM WED...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM BETTLES TO KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEST OF ANCHORAGE BY 4AM TUE. STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE
INTERIOR TO EXTEND ALONG 65 NORTH LATITUDE 4PM WED.

SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND BUILD TO 1031 MB TUE AM WEST OF BARROW. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WHICH MOVES SOUTH
TO BANKS ISLAND 4AM WED. TUE NIGHT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY
4PM WED. 1016 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE TO KING SALMON BY
10 PM MON NIGHT. 1016 MB LOW NEAR EAGLE WILL MOVE TO WHITEHORSE
TUE AM.

MODELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...INCLUDING THE UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND GRAZING NORTHEAST AK ON
TUE INTO WED. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THERE IS WIDE VARIANCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF A LOW TREKING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND ON HOW
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY TUE FROM BARROW
TO CANADA AS SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH...THEN
WINDS TURNING BACK TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OF
BARROW WED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUE
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE LOW ALOFT
MOVING SOUTH TOWARD BANKS ISLAND.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN ENDING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WHILE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...THEN ENDING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH EARLY TUE AS SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG TODAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN NORTON...THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND NORTH
SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK INSTABILITY UNDER WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. FREQUENT SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE DENALI AREA FROM THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH
OVER WESTERN AK TODAY. ON TUE THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTHEAST...AND AS
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH WED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
CORNER OF THE INTERIOR. REMAINDER WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER TUE
THROUGH WED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTENSIVE DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TUE OVER ALL AREAS
NW OF DELTA JUNCTION AS RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD APPROACH 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN INTERIOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 281302
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SPLIT IN TWO AS A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES TO BANKS
ISLAND 4AM WED...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM BETTLES TO KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEST OF ANCHORAGE BY 4AM TUE. STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE
INTERIOR TO EXTEND ALONG 65 NORTH LATITUDE 4PM WED.

SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND BUILD TO 1031 MB TUE AM WEST OF BARROW. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WHICH MOVES SOUTH
TO BANKS ISLAND 4AM WED. TUE NIGHT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY
4PM WED. 1016 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE TO KING SALMON BY
10 PM MON NIGHT. 1016 MB LOW NEAR EAGLE WILL MOVE TO WHITEHORSE
TUE AM.

MODELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...INCLUDING THE UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND GRAZING NORTHEAST AK ON
TUE INTO WED. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THERE IS WIDE VARIANCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF A LOW TREKING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND ON HOW
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY TUE FROM BARROW
TO CANADA AS SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH...THEN
WINDS TURNING BACK TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OF
BARROW WED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUE
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE LOW ALOFT
MOVING SOUTH TOWARD BANKS ISLAND.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN ENDING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WHILE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...THEN ENDING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH EARLY TUE AS SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG TODAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN NORTON...THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND NORTH
SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK INSTABILITY UNDER WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. FREQUENT SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE DENALI AREA FROM THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH
OVER WESTERN AK TODAY. ON TUE THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTHEAST...AND AS
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH WED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
CORNER OF THE INTERIOR. REMAINDER WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER TUE
THROUGH WED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTENSIVE DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TUE OVER ALL AREAS
NW OF DELTA JUNCTION AS RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD APPROACH 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN INTERIOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 281302
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SPLIT IN TWO AS A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES TO BANKS
ISLAND 4AM WED...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM BETTLES TO KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEST OF ANCHORAGE BY 4AM TUE. STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE
INTERIOR TO EXTEND ALONG 65 NORTH LATITUDE 4PM WED.

SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND BUILD TO 1031 MB TUE AM WEST OF BARROW. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WHICH MOVES SOUTH
TO BANKS ISLAND 4AM WED. TUE NIGHT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY
4PM WED. 1016 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE TO KING SALMON BY
10 PM MON NIGHT. 1016 MB LOW NEAR EAGLE WILL MOVE TO WHITEHORSE
TUE AM.

MODELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...INCLUDING THE UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND GRAZING NORTHEAST AK ON
TUE INTO WED. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THERE IS WIDE VARIANCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF A LOW TREKING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND ON HOW
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY TUE FROM BARROW
TO CANADA AS SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH...THEN
WINDS TURNING BACK TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OF
BARROW WED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUE
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE LOW ALOFT
MOVING SOUTH TOWARD BANKS ISLAND.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN ENDING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WHILE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...THEN ENDING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH EARLY TUE AS SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG TODAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN NORTON...THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND NORTH
SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK INSTABILITY UNDER WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. FREQUENT SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE DENALI AREA FROM THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH
OVER WESTERN AK TODAY. ON TUE THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTHEAST...AND AS
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH WED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
CORNER OF THE INTERIOR. REMAINDER WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER TUE
THROUGH WED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTENSIVE DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TUE OVER ALL AREAS
NW OF DELTA JUNCTION AS RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD APPROACH 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN INTERIOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 281232
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AND THE FAR WEST COAST OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
(THE FIRST ANCHOR POINT OF THE OMEGA BLOCK) LOCATED BETWEEN THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS BEGUN TO PHASE
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF RUSSIA. THIS PHASING
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF AMPLIFYING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW (THE SECOND ANCHOR POINT OF THE OMEGA BLOCK) IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE ARCTIC HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WHICH
IS DEPICTED WELL BY BOTH INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGES. RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BEGUN TO
INTERACT WITH THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND SHOULD PHASE WITH
THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE (THE FINAL COMPONENT OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK) IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING.
THE 12Z RAOB FROM PASN (SAINT PAUL) SHOWS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS AT
584 DECAMETERS...WITH EVEN HIGHER HEIGHTS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED THE PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECAUSE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE. EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
STILL MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY UNCOMMON WITH A STRATUS DECK THAT IS THOROUGHLY ENTRENCHED.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ALASKA MAINLAND. WHEN COMPARING THE 400 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS TO THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES AT BOTH 00Z AND 06Z...A DISCREPANCY
OF 3 TO 6 HOURS WAS OBSERVED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST HAVE PROVIDED GROUND TRUTH THAT HELPED VERIFY
THAT THE MODELS ARE INDEED ON THE SLOW SIDE. THE 06Z RUNS HAVE
STARTED TO CATCH ONTO THIS TREND BUT ARE STILL NOT QUITE CAUGHT UP
AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THIS NEW DATA...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
SPEED UP THE PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
ALASKA DURING THE DAY TODAY BY 3 TO 6 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE GULF...MULTIPLE WEAK
EASTERLY WAVES ARE LIKELY TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...MODEL CONFIDENCE GENERALLY TENDS TO LACK WITH THE TIMING
OF EACH WAVE AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE HEIGHT FALLS/POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED
ARE NOT RESOLVED WELL BY MODELS GENERALLY PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

OVERALL THOUGH...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
THERE ARE OF COURSE THE TYPICAL TIMING ISSUES WITH WAVES (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AND THE EXACT POSITIONS OF THE UPPER LOWS.
HOWEVER...THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM AND INTO THE LONG-TERM PENDING SOME DRASTIC SHIFT
IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC AT THIS
TIME. ENDED UP UTILIZING THE ECMWF FOR FORECAST UPDATES THIS
MORNING...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
SUSITNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH SOUTH TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADY RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND KENAI PENINSULA
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND MOST
PLACES WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ON TUESDAY AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE BASIN. DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO TIME TO
DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY...ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AS A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE
PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF ALASKA THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING
PERIODS OF FOG TO MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE ULTIMATELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT A SERIES OF
WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AND
BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE SEEN AS THESE UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL
ALLOW PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS WELL AS A LOW STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK WELL ESTABLISHED...
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME COLLISION COALESCENCE TAKE PLACE
AND ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE SAME HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE BERING WILL CLOSE OFF AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BOOKENDED BY TWO
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
OTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GULF SYSTEM WILL
CONTROL SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE BEING AN EASTERLY WAVE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FEATURE BUT THESE DISTURBANCES GENERALLY GIVE
GUIDANCE FITS WITH BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY DRY AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPCOMING PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION GO.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

MCLAY JUL 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 272335 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER






000
FXAK67 PAJK 272335 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER







000
FXAK69 PAFG 272250
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT MON MID MORNING. AFTER THAT THE MODELS
DIFFER WIDELY IN MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OR ARCTIC COAST. IT IS UNANIMOUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD BUT TO WHERE IS THE QUESTION. BUT BY MON NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW IS NO LONGER A FACTOR ANYWAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO
THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCH EASTWARD
MEANWHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD TO ABOUT
DEMARCATION POINT. THE HIGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE OF AN EXTREMELY
HIGH HEIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
TO BE CONSIDERED AN IMPACT TO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED UP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
THE RETURN FLOW HAS SPREAD RAIN AS FAR AS JUST TO THE EAST OF
EIELSON AFB. FAIRBANKS AWAITS RAINFALL TO TOP THE OLD RAINFALL
RECORD FOR JULY...WITH ONLY 0.19 INCHES OF RAINFALL LEFT TO
ACCOMPLISH THE TASK.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HAS SPREAD
RAINFALL INLAND TO ALMOST KALTAG AS OF SUN AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE MODELS ARE ALL WRONG THUS FAR BECAUSE PRECIPITATION IS
CLEARLY FALLING AT LEAST AS FAR AS KOYUK AND THE MODELS DO NOT
BRING IT IN TILL THIS EVENING. THE THE PRECIPITATION AREA IS MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL AS WELL.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272250
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT MON MID MORNING. AFTER THAT THE MODELS
DIFFER WIDELY IN MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OR ARCTIC COAST. IT IS UNANIMOUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD BUT TO WHERE IS THE QUESTION. BUT BY MON NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW IS NO LONGER A FACTOR ANYWAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO
THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCH EASTWARD
MEANWHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD TO ABOUT
DEMARCATION POINT. THE HIGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE OF AN EXTREMELY
HIGH HEIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
TO BE CONSIDERED AN IMPACT TO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED UP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
THE RETURN FLOW HAS SPREAD RAIN AS FAR AS JUST TO THE EAST OF
EIELSON AFB. FAIRBANKS AWAITS RAINFALL TO TOP THE OLD RAINFALL
RECORD FOR JULY...WITH ONLY 0.19 INCHES OF RAINFALL LEFT TO
ACCOMPLISH THE TASK.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HAS SPREAD
RAINFALL INLAND TO ALMOST KALTAG AS OF SUN AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE MODELS ARE ALL WRONG THUS FAR BECAUSE PRECIPITATION IS
CLEARLY FALLING AT LEAST AS FAR AS KOYUK AND THE MODELS DO NOT
BRING IT IN TILL THIS EVENING. THE THE PRECIPITATION AREA IS MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL AS WELL.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 272248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
248 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER








000
FXAK67 PAJK 272248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
248 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER







000
FXAK68 PAFC 272142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUED ITS HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD BLOCKING RIDGE WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA. TO THE EAST THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR THE POLE TO A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX
OVER THE GULF.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA /ALEUTIANS HOLDS
THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE
RIDGE MON AND MERGES WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF
TUE. THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND ONLY PROVIDE FOR A GLANCING BLOW
TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GULF CUT-OFF BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED WITH TIME AND SETS UP GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND WITH THAT THE THREAT OF EASTERLY WAVES BY MID-
WEEK. THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AN ORIENTATION OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE
ALLOWS FOR SHORT WAVES TO PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE.

AT THE SURFACE...

SOUTHCENTRAL...A RELATIVELY COMPACT SURFACE CENTER IS EVIDENT
OVER THE NORTH GULF. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/NORTH GULF COAST IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THESE LOCALS. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WERE
EVIDENT WEST OF THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A BOARD RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUED STRATUS
AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AK PEN...AND BERING SEA. THE
SW MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCALS AND THE DELTA WHERE UNDER
RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES. A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DELTA
THREATENED SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF OVERALL IS CONSISTENT ON
THE HANDLING OF THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES ESPECIALLY THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE MON/TUE. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID-WEEK.
SURFACE PATTERNS ARE ALL GENERALLY IN THE BALL PARK. THE NAM WILL
BE USED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE HEMISPHERIC MODELS FOR THE
REMAINDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO THE WEST WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
AREAS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN EASTERLY
WAVE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA MID-WEEK. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT IF THESE
FEATURE MATERIALIZES...THEN IT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
BRISTOL BAY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NW ALASKA MON
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
MON NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS BY TUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH WED. RAIN AND SOME WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE SAME HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE BERING WILL CLOSE OFF AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BOOKENDED BY TWO
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
OTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GULF SYSTEM WILL
CONTROL SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE BEING AN EASTERLY WAVE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FEATURE BUT THESE DISTURBANCES GENERALLY GIVE
GUIDANCE FITS WITH BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY DRY AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPCOMING PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION GO.


&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

RMC/MTL JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 272142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUED ITS HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD BLOCKING RIDGE WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA. TO THE EAST THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR THE POLE TO A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX
OVER THE GULF.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA /ALEUTIANS HOLDS
THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE
RIDGE MON AND MERGES WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF
TUE. THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND ONLY PROVIDE FOR A GLANCING BLOW
TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GULF CUT-OFF BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED WITH TIME AND SETS UP GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND WITH THAT THE THREAT OF EASTERLY WAVES BY MID-
WEEK. THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AN ORIENTATION OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE
ALLOWS FOR SHORT WAVES TO PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE.

AT THE SURFACE...

SOUTHCENTRAL...A RELATIVELY COMPACT SURFACE CENTER IS EVIDENT
OVER THE NORTH GULF. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/NORTH GULF COAST IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THESE LOCALS. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WERE
EVIDENT WEST OF THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A BOARD RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUED STRATUS
AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AK PEN...AND BERING SEA. THE
SW MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCALS AND THE DELTA WHERE UNDER
RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES. A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DELTA
THREATENED SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF OVERALL IS CONSISTENT ON
THE HANDLING OF THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES ESPECIALLY THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE MON/TUE. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID-WEEK.
SURFACE PATTERNS ARE ALL GENERALLY IN THE BALL PARK. THE NAM WILL
BE USED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE HEMISPHERIC MODELS FOR THE
REMAINDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO THE WEST WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
AREAS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN EASTERLY
WAVE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA MID-WEEK. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT IF THESE
FEATURE MATERIALIZES...THEN IT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
BRISTOL BAY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NW ALASKA MON
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
MON NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS BY TUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH WED. RAIN AND SOME WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE SAME HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE BERING WILL CLOSE OFF AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BOOKENDED BY TWO
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
OTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GULF SYSTEM WILL
CONTROL SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE BEING AN EASTERLY WAVE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FEATURE BUT THESE DISTURBANCES GENERALLY GIVE
GUIDANCE FITS WITH BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY DRY AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPCOMING PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION GO.


&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

RMC/MTL JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 272142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUED ITS HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD BLOCKING RIDGE WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA. TO THE EAST THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR THE POLE TO A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX
OVER THE GULF.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA /ALEUTIANS HOLDS
THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE
RIDGE MON AND MERGES WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF
TUE. THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND ONLY PROVIDE FOR A GLANCING BLOW
TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GULF CUT-OFF BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED WITH TIME AND SETS UP GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND WITH THAT THE THREAT OF EASTERLY WAVES BY MID-
WEEK. THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AN ORIENTATION OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE
ALLOWS FOR SHORT WAVES TO PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE.

AT THE SURFACE...

SOUTHCENTRAL...A RELATIVELY COMPACT SURFACE CENTER IS EVIDENT
OVER THE NORTH GULF. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/NORTH GULF COAST IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THESE LOCALS. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WERE
EVIDENT WEST OF THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A BOARD RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUED STRATUS
AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AK PEN...AND BERING SEA. THE
SW MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCALS AND THE DELTA WHERE UNDER
RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES. A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DELTA
THREATENED SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF OVERALL IS CONSISTENT ON
THE HANDLING OF THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES ESPECIALLY THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE MON/TUE. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID-WEEK.
SURFACE PATTERNS ARE ALL GENERALLY IN THE BALL PARK. THE NAM WILL
BE USED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE HEMISPHERIC MODELS FOR THE
REMAINDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO THE WEST WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
AREAS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN EASTERLY
WAVE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA MID-WEEK. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT IF THESE
FEATURE MATERIALIZES...THEN IT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
BRISTOL BAY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NW ALASKA MON
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
MON NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS BY TUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH WED. RAIN AND SOME WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE SAME HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE BERING WILL CLOSE OFF AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BOOKENDED BY TWO
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
OTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GULF SYSTEM WILL
CONTROL SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE BEING AN EASTERLY WAVE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FEATURE BUT THESE DISTURBANCES GENERALLY GIVE
GUIDANCE FITS WITH BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY DRY AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPCOMING PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION GO.


&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

RMC/MTL JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 272142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUED ITS HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD BLOCKING RIDGE WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA. TO THE EAST THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR THE POLE TO A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX
OVER THE GULF.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA /ALEUTIANS HOLDS
THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE
RIDGE MON AND MERGES WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF
TUE. THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND ONLY PROVIDE FOR A GLANCING BLOW
TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GULF CUT-OFF BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED WITH TIME AND SETS UP GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND WITH THAT THE THREAT OF EASTERLY WAVES BY MID-
WEEK. THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AN ORIENTATION OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE
ALLOWS FOR SHORT WAVES TO PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE.

AT THE SURFACE...

SOUTHCENTRAL...A RELATIVELY COMPACT SURFACE CENTER IS EVIDENT
OVER THE NORTH GULF. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/NORTH GULF COAST IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THESE LOCALS. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WERE
EVIDENT WEST OF THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A BOARD RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUED STRATUS
AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AK PEN...AND BERING SEA. THE
SW MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCALS AND THE DELTA WHERE UNDER
RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES. A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DELTA
THREATENED SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF OVERALL IS CONSISTENT ON
THE HANDLING OF THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES ESPECIALLY THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE MON/TUE. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID-WEEK.
SURFACE PATTERNS ARE ALL GENERALLY IN THE BALL PARK. THE NAM WILL
BE USED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE HEMISPHERIC MODELS FOR THE
REMAINDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO THE WEST WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
AREAS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN EASTERLY
WAVE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA MID-WEEK. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT IF THESE
FEATURE MATERIALIZES...THEN IT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
BRISTOL BAY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NW ALASKA MON
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
MON NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS BY TUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH WED. RAIN AND SOME WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE SAME HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE BERING WILL CLOSE OFF AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BOOKENDED BY TWO
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
OTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GULF SYSTEM WILL
CONTROL SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE BEING AN EASTERLY WAVE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FEATURE BUT THESE DISTURBANCES GENERALLY GIVE
GUIDANCE FITS WITH BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY DRY AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPCOMING PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION GO.


&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

RMC/MTL JUL 14



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