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000
FXAK68 PAFC 300026
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC CAUSING A RIDGE TO
RAPIDLY BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD RUSSIA WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW HAS STALLED JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ALONG THIS
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. EAST OF THIS FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES FROM INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IT
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE ONE TREND IN MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
A LITTLE QUICKER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TO FORM...BUT OVERALL WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARDS SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SEA
BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND
COASTAL FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY
AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS REMAINING MORE MODERATE UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES.

AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH MORNING HEATING...WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1 TO -3 WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 500-800 J/KG ALONG THE NORTHERN KILBUCK MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
BETHEL AND ANIAK AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW STUYAHOK. WITH THIS
SAID...CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IS MODERATE
TO HIGH ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AREA MAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN RUSSIAN
COAST...PRODUCING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...SO
AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO ADAK AND ATKA.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PERCENTAGES ARE RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE BEING AIDED BY THE
OFFSHORE WINDS BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. THE INLAND AREAS INCLUDE THE KENAI MOUNTAINS...SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE BEING SEEN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND THE POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES
ARE AIDING THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
REBOUND IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER
AND MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A DIFFUSE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BERING
BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK68 PAFC 300026
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC CAUSING A RIDGE TO
RAPIDLY BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD RUSSIA WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW HAS STALLED JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ALONG THIS
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. EAST OF THIS FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES FROM INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IT
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE ONE TREND IN MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
A LITTLE QUICKER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TO FORM...BUT OVERALL WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARDS SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SEA
BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND
COASTAL FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY
AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS REMAINING MORE MODERATE UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES.

AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH MORNING HEATING...WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1 TO -3 WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 500-800 J/KG ALONG THE NORTHERN KILBUCK MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
BETHEL AND ANIAK AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW STUYAHOK. WITH THIS
SAID...CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IS MODERATE
TO HIGH ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AREA MAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN RUSSIAN
COAST...PRODUCING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...SO
AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO ADAK AND ATKA.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PERCENTAGES ARE RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE BEING AIDED BY THE
OFFSHORE WINDS BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. THE INLAND AREAS INCLUDE THE KENAI MOUNTAINS...SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE BEING SEEN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND THE POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES
ARE AIDING THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
REBOUND IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER
AND MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A DIFFUSE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BERING
BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 300026
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC CAUSING A RIDGE TO
RAPIDLY BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD RUSSIA WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW HAS STALLED JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ALONG THIS
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. EAST OF THIS FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES FROM INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IT
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE ONE TREND IN MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
A LITTLE QUICKER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TO FORM...BUT OVERALL WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARDS SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SEA
BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND
COASTAL FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY
AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS REMAINING MORE MODERATE UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES.

AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH MORNING HEATING...WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1 TO -3 WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 500-800 J/KG ALONG THE NORTHERN KILBUCK MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
BETHEL AND ANIAK AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW STUYAHOK. WITH THIS
SAID...CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IS MODERATE
TO HIGH ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AREA MAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN RUSSIAN
COAST...PRODUCING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...SO
AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO ADAK AND ATKA.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PERCENTAGES ARE RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE BEING AIDED BY THE
OFFSHORE WINDS BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. THE INLAND AREAS INCLUDE THE KENAI MOUNTAINS...SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE BEING SEEN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND THE POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES
ARE AIDING THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
REBOUND IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER
AND MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A DIFFUSE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BERING
BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 300026
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC CAUSING A RIDGE TO
RAPIDLY BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD RUSSIA WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW HAS STALLED JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ALONG THIS
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. EAST OF THIS FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES FROM INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IT
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE ONE TREND IN MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
A LITTLE QUICKER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TO FORM...BUT OVERALL WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARDS SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SEA
BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND
COASTAL FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY
AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS REMAINING MORE MODERATE UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES.

AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH MORNING HEATING...WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1 TO -3 WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 500-800 J/KG ALONG THE NORTHERN KILBUCK MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
BETHEL AND ANIAK AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW STUYAHOK. WITH THIS
SAID...CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IS MODERATE
TO HIGH ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AREA MAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN RUSSIAN
COAST...PRODUCING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...SO
AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO ADAK AND ATKA.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PERCENTAGES ARE RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE BEING AIDED BY THE
OFFSHORE WINDS BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. THE INLAND AREAS INCLUDE THE KENAI MOUNTAINS...SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE BEING SEEN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND THE POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES
ARE AIDING THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
REBOUND IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER
AND MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A DIFFUSE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BERING
BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 300026
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC CAUSING A RIDGE TO
RAPIDLY BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD RUSSIA WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW HAS STALLED JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ALONG THIS
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. EAST OF THIS FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES FROM INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IT
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE ONE TREND IN MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
A LITTLE QUICKER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TO FORM...BUT OVERALL WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARDS SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SEA
BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND
COASTAL FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY
AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS REMAINING MORE MODERATE UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES.

AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH MORNING HEATING...WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1 TO -3 WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 500-800 J/KG ALONG THE NORTHERN KILBUCK MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
BETHEL AND ANIAK AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW STUYAHOK. WITH THIS
SAID...CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IS MODERATE
TO HIGH ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AREA MAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN RUSSIAN
COAST...PRODUCING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...SO
AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO ADAK AND ATKA.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PERCENTAGES ARE RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE BEING AIDED BY THE
OFFSHORE WINDS BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. THE INLAND AREAS INCLUDE THE KENAI MOUNTAINS...SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE BEING SEEN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND THE POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES
ARE AIDING THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
REBOUND IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER
AND MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A DIFFUSE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BERING
BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 300026
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC CAUSING A RIDGE TO
RAPIDLY BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD RUSSIA WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW HAS STALLED JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ALONG THIS
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. EAST OF THIS FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES FROM INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IT
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE ONE TREND IN MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
A LITTLE QUICKER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TO FORM...BUT OVERALL WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARDS SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SEA
BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND
COASTAL FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY
AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS REMAINING MORE MODERATE UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES.

AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH MORNING HEATING...WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1 TO -3 WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 500-800 J/KG ALONG THE NORTHERN KILBUCK MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
BETHEL AND ANIAK AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW STUYAHOK. WITH THIS
SAID...CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IS MODERATE
TO HIGH ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AREA MAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN RUSSIAN
COAST...PRODUCING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...SO
AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO ADAK AND ATKA.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PERCENTAGES ARE RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE BEING AIDED BY THE
OFFSHORE WINDS BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. THE INLAND AREAS INCLUDE THE KENAI MOUNTAINS...SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE BEING SEEN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND THE POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES
ARE AIDING THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
REBOUND IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER
AND MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A DIFFUSE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BERING
BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB



  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 300002
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500M MB...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AK AND
CANADA BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CANADA NEAR THE
MCKENZIE BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN COAST AND INTERIOR WITH LITTLE CHANGE AS ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA AND CANADA BORDER
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND ALASKA INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES APPEARING ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...THE 1030 MB HIGH OVER BARROW EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED
ONSHORE NEAR DEADHORSE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
WILL PERSISTS AND STRENGTHEN TO 1040 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EXPAND
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A BIT OF A MESS UP ON THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH A NICE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING OVER POINT THOMPSON WITH
REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SNOW. INITIALLY THERE WAS
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING THAT HAD MOVED EAST PAST DEADHORSE AND
DALTON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS OF SNOW OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL TURN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA WILL SHIFT WEST AND
BE ISOLATED BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DECAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SLIGHT
WARMING WITH RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MOVES EAST. BRIEF WARMING FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD
PUSH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR
FREEZING FROM THE TANANA RIVER NORTH. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY. COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 2000 FEET FOR FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MID NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND SLIDE INTO WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS BACK INTO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. BASICALLY KEEPING THE COOLER AND WET TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF MENTASTA PASS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN ZONES 224 AND 226.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES WILL THEN
BE A BIT DRIER SAT AND SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AK INTERIOR COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION...SUFFICIENT MIXING...AND THE ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHERE A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN TWENTY AND THIRTY
PERCENT IN AREAS DURING THE DAY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE YUKON DELTA. WARRANTS MONITORING AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SAG RIVER WAS REPLACED WITH A
FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PUMP STATION 3 DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS DEADHORSE
WITH POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE SAG RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CREST
CURRENTLY IS AT 19.5 FEET AND IS APPROACHING THE FLOOD STAGE AT
20 FEET. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST TONIGHT AT PUMP STATION 3 ON THE
SAG RIVER AND IT WILL TAKE AROUND 24 HOURS FOR THE CREST TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS TO CURRENT
REPAIRS ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAK/ET MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 300002
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500M MB...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AK AND
CANADA BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CANADA NEAR THE
MCKENZIE BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN COAST AND INTERIOR WITH LITTLE CHANGE AS ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA AND CANADA BORDER
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND ALASKA INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES APPEARING ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...THE 1030 MB HIGH OVER BARROW EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED
ONSHORE NEAR DEADHORSE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
WILL PERSISTS AND STRENGTHEN TO 1040 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EXPAND
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A BIT OF A MESS UP ON THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH A NICE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING OVER POINT THOMPSON WITH
REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SNOW. INITIALLY THERE WAS
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING THAT HAD MOVED EAST PAST DEADHORSE AND
DALTON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS OF SNOW OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL TURN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA WILL SHIFT WEST AND
BE ISOLATED BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DECAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SLIGHT
WARMING WITH RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MOVES EAST. BRIEF WARMING FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD
PUSH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR
FREEZING FROM THE TANANA RIVER NORTH. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY. COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 2000 FEET FOR FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MID NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND SLIDE INTO WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS BACK INTO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. BASICALLY KEEPING THE COOLER AND WET TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF MENTASTA PASS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN ZONES 224 AND 226.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES WILL THEN
BE A BIT DRIER SAT AND SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AK INTERIOR COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION...SUFFICIENT MIXING...AND THE ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHERE A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN TWENTY AND THIRTY
PERCENT IN AREAS DURING THE DAY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE YUKON DELTA. WARRANTS MONITORING AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SAG RIVER WAS REPLACED WITH A
FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PUMP STATION 3 DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS DEADHORSE
WITH POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE SAG RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CREST
CURRENTLY IS AT 19.5 FEET AND IS APPROACHING THE FLOOD STAGE AT
20 FEET. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST TONIGHT AT PUMP STATION 3 ON THE
SAG RIVER AND IT WILL TAKE AROUND 24 HOURS FOR THE CREST TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS TO CURRENT
REPAIRS ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAK/ET MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 300002
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500M MB...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AK AND
CANADA BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CANADA NEAR THE
MCKENZIE BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN COAST AND INTERIOR WITH LITTLE CHANGE AS ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA AND CANADA BORDER
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND ALASKA INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES APPEARING ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...THE 1030 MB HIGH OVER BARROW EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED
ONSHORE NEAR DEADHORSE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
WILL PERSISTS AND STRENGTHEN TO 1040 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EXPAND
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A BIT OF A MESS UP ON THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH A NICE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING OVER POINT THOMPSON WITH
REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SNOW. INITIALLY THERE WAS
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING THAT HAD MOVED EAST PAST DEADHORSE AND
DALTON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS OF SNOW OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL TURN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA WILL SHIFT WEST AND
BE ISOLATED BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DECAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SLIGHT
WARMING WITH RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MOVES EAST. BRIEF WARMING FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD
PUSH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR
FREEZING FROM THE TANANA RIVER NORTH. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY. COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 2000 FEET FOR FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MID NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND SLIDE INTO WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS BACK INTO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. BASICALLY KEEPING THE COOLER AND WET TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF MENTASTA PASS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN ZONES 224 AND 226.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES WILL THEN
BE A BIT DRIER SAT AND SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AK INTERIOR COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION...SUFFICIENT MIXING...AND THE ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHERE A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN TWENTY AND THIRTY
PERCENT IN AREAS DURING THE DAY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE YUKON DELTA. WARRANTS MONITORING AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SAG RIVER WAS REPLACED WITH A
FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PUMP STATION 3 DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS DEADHORSE
WITH POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE SAG RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CREST
CURRENTLY IS AT 19.5 FEET AND IS APPROACHING THE FLOOD STAGE AT
20 FEET. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST TONIGHT AT PUMP STATION 3 ON THE
SAG RIVER AND IT WILL TAKE AROUND 24 HOURS FOR THE CREST TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS TO CURRENT
REPAIRS ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAK/ET MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 300002
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500M MB...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AK AND
CANADA BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CANADA NEAR THE
MCKENZIE BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN COAST AND INTERIOR WITH LITTLE CHANGE AS ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA AND CANADA BORDER
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND ALASKA INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES APPEARING ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...THE 1030 MB HIGH OVER BARROW EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED
ONSHORE NEAR DEADHORSE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
WILL PERSISTS AND STRENGTHEN TO 1040 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EXPAND
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A BIT OF A MESS UP ON THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH A NICE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING OVER POINT THOMPSON WITH
REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SNOW. INITIALLY THERE WAS
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING THAT HAD MOVED EAST PAST DEADHORSE AND
DALTON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS OF SNOW OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL TURN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA WILL SHIFT WEST AND
BE ISOLATED BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DECAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SLIGHT
WARMING WITH RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MOVES EAST. BRIEF WARMING FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD
PUSH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR
FREEZING FROM THE TANANA RIVER NORTH. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY. COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 2000 FEET FOR FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MID NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND SLIDE INTO WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS BACK INTO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. BASICALLY KEEPING THE COOLER AND WET TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF MENTASTA PASS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN ZONES 224 AND 226.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES WILL THEN
BE A BIT DRIER SAT AND SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AK INTERIOR COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION...SUFFICIENT MIXING...AND THE ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHERE A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN TWENTY AND THIRTY
PERCENT IN AREAS DURING THE DAY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE YUKON DELTA. WARRANTS MONITORING AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SAG RIVER WAS REPLACED WITH A
FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PUMP STATION 3 DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS DEADHORSE
WITH POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE SAG RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CREST
CURRENTLY IS AT 19.5 FEET AND IS APPROACHING THE FLOOD STAGE AT
20 FEET. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST TONIGHT AT PUMP STATION 3 ON THE
SAG RIVER AND IT WILL TAKE AROUND 24 HOURS FOR THE CREST TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS TO CURRENT
REPAIRS ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAK/ET MAY 15



  [top]

000
FXAK67 PAJK 292321
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
321 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SE OF THE PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT EWD INTO
CENTRAL BC BY EARLY SAT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE FAR SERN PANHANDLE THRU SAT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE SAT
AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU SAT.
WEAK SFC TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SERN PANHANDLE THRU SAT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES...AND NO CHANGE WAS
NEEDED TO THE PRESSURE GRIDS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG...CLOUDS AND
PRECIP THREAT FROM UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVES TO THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS FROM TROF REACHING THE FAR
N SAT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF WEAKENING SOME...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GETTING A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT SAT...THINK
MARINE LAYER MAY NOT COMPLETELY BURN OFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CAPE SPENCER TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA. DO EXPECT MARINE LAYER
TO COVER ENTIRE OUTER COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING
CLOUDS...AND FOG WILL LIKELY MOVE IN TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
THE FOG SHOULD LIFT ALONG THE OUTER COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HANG TOUGH NEAR PAEL. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAGS AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT MORNING.

FOR THE SRN PANHANDLE AREA...EXPECT BANDS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE INNER CHANNELS TO THE SOUTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT TONIGHT AND SAT. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MISTY FJORDS AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR HYDER SAT AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES BY THEM...AND THEY SHOULD BE WARMER SAT
AS WELL HELPING WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION POTENTIAL.

OVER THE FAR NRN AREA SAT AFTERNOON...SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WILL TRIGGER TSTMS OVER THE SRN YUKON...AND
SOME OF THESE MAY GET INTO THE PAGY AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WILL AT
LEAST SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DO THEIR USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE TONIGHT AND
SAT OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS. LARGER SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS FAVORING MORE NWLY FLOW...SO CHANNELS THAT FAVOR THAT FLOW WILL
SEE STRONGER WINDS. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR CAPE
SPENCER ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT...BUT MORE SCA
LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY THERE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH LIGHTER FLOW OVER
THE FAR NRN GULF NEAR THE COAST.

MAX TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR WHERE THEY GOT TO TODAY OVER MOST
INNER CHANNELS...BUT SOME PLACES NEAR THE OUTER COAST WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT COOLER DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE WIND.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
SATURDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE YUKON DRIFTS SOUTH TO TOUCH NORTHERNMOST PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER
TROUGH MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SKAGWAY...HAINES AND YAKUTAT AREAS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE 12Z RUN ECMWF THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
MARINE STRATUS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND INVADE THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH EXPANDS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST.

MODELS DIVERT BY MID WEEK AND USED THE NEW WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND MAINTAINED A PATTERN CHANGE FROM DRY TO WET WEATHER BY MID
WEEK THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

RWT/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 292321
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
321 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SE OF THE PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT EWD INTO
CENTRAL BC BY EARLY SAT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE FAR SERN PANHANDLE THRU SAT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE SAT
AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU SAT.
WEAK SFC TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SERN PANHANDLE THRU SAT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES...AND NO CHANGE WAS
NEEDED TO THE PRESSURE GRIDS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG...CLOUDS AND
PRECIP THREAT FROM UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVES TO THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS FROM TROF REACHING THE FAR
N SAT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF WEAKENING SOME...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GETTING A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT SAT...THINK
MARINE LAYER MAY NOT COMPLETELY BURN OFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CAPE SPENCER TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA. DO EXPECT MARINE LAYER
TO COVER ENTIRE OUTER COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING
CLOUDS...AND FOG WILL LIKELY MOVE IN TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
THE FOG SHOULD LIFT ALONG THE OUTER COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HANG TOUGH NEAR PAEL. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAGS AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT MORNING.

FOR THE SRN PANHANDLE AREA...EXPECT BANDS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE INNER CHANNELS TO THE SOUTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT TONIGHT AND SAT. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MISTY FJORDS AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR HYDER SAT AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES BY THEM...AND THEY SHOULD BE WARMER SAT
AS WELL HELPING WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION POTENTIAL.

OVER THE FAR NRN AREA SAT AFTERNOON...SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WILL TRIGGER TSTMS OVER THE SRN YUKON...AND
SOME OF THESE MAY GET INTO THE PAGY AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WILL AT
LEAST SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DO THEIR USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE TONIGHT AND
SAT OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS. LARGER SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS FAVORING MORE NWLY FLOW...SO CHANNELS THAT FAVOR THAT FLOW WILL
SEE STRONGER WINDS. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR CAPE
SPENCER ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT...BUT MORE SCA
LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY THERE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH LIGHTER FLOW OVER
THE FAR NRN GULF NEAR THE COAST.

MAX TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR WHERE THEY GOT TO TODAY OVER MOST
INNER CHANNELS...BUT SOME PLACES NEAR THE OUTER COAST WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT COOLER DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE WIND.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
SATURDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE YUKON DRIFTS SOUTH TO TOUCH NORTHERNMOST PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER
TROUGH MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SKAGWAY...HAINES AND YAKUTAT AREAS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE 12Z RUN ECMWF THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
MARINE STRATUS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND INVADE THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH EXPANDS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST.

MODELS DIVERT BY MID WEEK AND USED THE NEW WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND MAINTAINED A PATTERN CHANGE FROM DRY TO WET WEATHER BY MID
WEEK THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

RWT/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 291400
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SEA STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FROM THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE LOW SEA STRATUS CLOUD LAYER HAS MOVED
INTO THE YAKUTAT, CROSS SOUND AND SITKA AREAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ROTATING
AROUND THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MISTY FJORDS AREA.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SUNNY DAY
AND CLEAR NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY GET A BIT FURTHER INTO
THE INNER CHANNELS. THE SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VERY WARM 850MB
TEMPS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S OVER
INLAND AREAS. PLACES ALONG THE COAST THAT AREA SEEING THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT GET AS WARM AND MAY SEE HIGHS BARLEY GET TO THE
LOWER 60S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH SOME AREAS
CLOSER TO THE WATER WILL BE CLOSER TO 50.

WIND WISE...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SO MOST OF THE WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WARM CERTAIN PLACES GET TODAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS WILL BE NEAR CROSS SOUNDS WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL AREA TO MUCH WARMER PLACES OVER
THE SUNNY INNER CHANNELS. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS
TO 15 KT OR LESS.

OVERALL THERE IS GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / MOST OF THE EFFORT THIS
MORNING WAS LIMITED TO ADJUSTMENTS TO TIME PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TREND FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE FORECAST OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT VARYING MUCH BETWEEN THEMSELVES. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS
PERSISTING. THE THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WEST...SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TOWARDS
THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC
SLOPE WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORT CATCHING THE SOUTHERN
YUKON AND DOWN TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
SATURDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECOND TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HEADED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE TROUGH OUT
OF NORTHWEST CANADA IS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST... AND ENERGY FROM THE
WEST IS EXTENDING UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
IS START OF THE PATTERN SHIFT BY THURSDAY THAT IS MOVING A FAIRLY
LARGE SCALE LOW THAT LOOKS BE VERTICALLY STACKED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF THE RAINS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST EAST ALASKA
IN EARLY JUNE.

LEFT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THAT
WAS ALREADY IN THERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE WATER WILL GET VERY WARM AND DRY WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
20S AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH WIND SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OF
WARNING. PLACES NEAR THE WATER WILL GET WARM BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ALSO RH VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE DRY OFFSHORE TO A MOIST
ONSHORE WIND AND BE IN THE MID 30% TO 40%.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

ABJ/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 291400
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SEA STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FROM THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE LOW SEA STRATUS CLOUD LAYER HAS MOVED
INTO THE YAKUTAT, CROSS SOUND AND SITKA AREAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ROTATING
AROUND THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MISTY FJORDS AREA.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SUNNY DAY
AND CLEAR NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY GET A BIT FURTHER INTO
THE INNER CHANNELS. THE SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VERY WARM 850MB
TEMPS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S OVER
INLAND AREAS. PLACES ALONG THE COAST THAT AREA SEEING THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT GET AS WARM AND MAY SEE HIGHS BARLEY GET TO THE
LOWER 60S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH SOME AREAS
CLOSER TO THE WATER WILL BE CLOSER TO 50.

WIND WISE...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SO MOST OF THE WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WARM CERTAIN PLACES GET TODAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS WILL BE NEAR CROSS SOUNDS WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL AREA TO MUCH WARMER PLACES OVER
THE SUNNY INNER CHANNELS. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS
TO 15 KT OR LESS.

OVERALL THERE IS GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / MOST OF THE EFFORT THIS
MORNING WAS LIMITED TO ADJUSTMENTS TO TIME PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TREND FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE FORECAST OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT VARYING MUCH BETWEEN THEMSELVES. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS
PERSISTING. THE THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WEST...SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TOWARDS
THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC
SLOPE WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORT CATCHING THE SOUTHERN
YUKON AND DOWN TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
SATURDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECOND TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HEADED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE TROUGH OUT
OF NORTHWEST CANADA IS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST... AND ENERGY FROM THE
WEST IS EXTENDING UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
IS START OF THE PATTERN SHIFT BY THURSDAY THAT IS MOVING A FAIRLY
LARGE SCALE LOW THAT LOOKS BE VERTICALLY STACKED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF THE RAINS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST EAST ALASKA
IN EARLY JUNE.

LEFT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THAT
WAS ALREADY IN THERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE WATER WILL GET VERY WARM AND DRY WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
20S AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH WIND SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OF
WARNING. PLACES NEAR THE WATER WILL GET WARM BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ALSO RH VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE DRY OFFSHORE TO A MOIST
ONSHORE WIND AND BE IN THE MID 30% TO 40%.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

ABJ/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 291400
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SEA STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FROM THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE LOW SEA STRATUS CLOUD LAYER HAS MOVED
INTO THE YAKUTAT, CROSS SOUND AND SITKA AREAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ROTATING
AROUND THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MISTY FJORDS AREA.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SUNNY DAY
AND CLEAR NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY GET A BIT FURTHER INTO
THE INNER CHANNELS. THE SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VERY WARM 850MB
TEMPS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S OVER
INLAND AREAS. PLACES ALONG THE COAST THAT AREA SEEING THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT GET AS WARM AND MAY SEE HIGHS BARLEY GET TO THE
LOWER 60S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH SOME AREAS
CLOSER TO THE WATER WILL BE CLOSER TO 50.

WIND WISE...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SO MOST OF THE WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WARM CERTAIN PLACES GET TODAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS WILL BE NEAR CROSS SOUNDS WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL AREA TO MUCH WARMER PLACES OVER
THE SUNNY INNER CHANNELS. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS
TO 15 KT OR LESS.

OVERALL THERE IS GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / MOST OF THE EFFORT THIS
MORNING WAS LIMITED TO ADJUSTMENTS TO TIME PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TREND FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE FORECAST OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT VARYING MUCH BETWEEN THEMSELVES. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS
PERSISTING. THE THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WEST...SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TOWARDS
THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC
SLOPE WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORT CATCHING THE SOUTHERN
YUKON AND DOWN TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
SATURDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECOND TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HEADED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE TROUGH OUT
OF NORTHWEST CANADA IS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST... AND ENERGY FROM THE
WEST IS EXTENDING UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
IS START OF THE PATTERN SHIFT BY THURSDAY THAT IS MOVING A FAIRLY
LARGE SCALE LOW THAT LOOKS BE VERTICALLY STACKED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF THE RAINS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST EAST ALASKA
IN EARLY JUNE.

LEFT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THAT
WAS ALREADY IN THERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE WATER WILL GET VERY WARM AND DRY WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
20S AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH WIND SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OF
WARNING. PLACES NEAR THE WATER WILL GET WARM BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ALSO RH VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE DRY OFFSHORE TO A MOIST
ONSHORE WIND AND BE IN THE MID 30% TO 40%.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

ABJ/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 291400
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SEA STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FROM THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE LOW SEA STRATUS CLOUD LAYER HAS MOVED
INTO THE YAKUTAT, CROSS SOUND AND SITKA AREAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ROTATING
AROUND THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MISTY FJORDS AREA.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SUNNY DAY
AND CLEAR NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY GET A BIT FURTHER INTO
THE INNER CHANNELS. THE SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VERY WARM 850MB
TEMPS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S OVER
INLAND AREAS. PLACES ALONG THE COAST THAT AREA SEEING THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT GET AS WARM AND MAY SEE HIGHS BARLEY GET TO THE
LOWER 60S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH SOME AREAS
CLOSER TO THE WATER WILL BE CLOSER TO 50.

WIND WISE...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SO MOST OF THE WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WARM CERTAIN PLACES GET TODAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS WILL BE NEAR CROSS SOUNDS WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL AREA TO MUCH WARMER PLACES OVER
THE SUNNY INNER CHANNELS. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS
TO 15 KT OR LESS.

OVERALL THERE IS GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / MOST OF THE EFFORT THIS
MORNING WAS LIMITED TO ADJUSTMENTS TO TIME PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TREND FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE FORECAST OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT VARYING MUCH BETWEEN THEMSELVES. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS
PERSISTING. THE THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WEST...SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TOWARDS
THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC
SLOPE WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORT CATCHING THE SOUTHERN
YUKON AND DOWN TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
SATURDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECOND TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HEADED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE TROUGH OUT
OF NORTHWEST CANADA IS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST... AND ENERGY FROM THE
WEST IS EXTENDING UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
IS START OF THE PATTERN SHIFT BY THURSDAY THAT IS MOVING A FAIRLY
LARGE SCALE LOW THAT LOOKS BE VERTICALLY STACKED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF THE RAINS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST EAST ALASKA
IN EARLY JUNE.

LEFT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THAT
WAS ALREADY IN THERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE WATER WILL GET VERY WARM AND DRY WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
20S AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH WIND SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OF
WARNING. PLACES NEAR THE WATER WILL GET WARM BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ALSO RH VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE DRY OFFSHORE TO A MOIST
ONSHORE WIND AND BE IN THE MID 30% TO 40%.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

ABJ/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK68 PAFC 291254
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MAINLAND HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TO THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH THE SURFACE CENTER JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE TRANQUIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COASTS. TO
THE WEST AN ORGANIZED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH
THE RAIN BAND ALONG THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO TAPER DOWN WITH GUSTY GALES CONFINED NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WEST RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY MOVE SHORTWAVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE BERING MAINLY BRINGING SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM FILLS AND
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...WITH WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SOME DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS COULD BE SET ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AK WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TODAY
AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE LOW EXITS THE BERING...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE DECAYING FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BENEATH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A
MODERATING TREND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 291254
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MAINLAND HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TO THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH THE SURFACE CENTER JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE TRANQUIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COASTS. TO
THE WEST AN ORGANIZED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH
THE RAIN BAND ALONG THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO TAPER DOWN WITH GUSTY GALES CONFINED NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WEST RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY MOVE SHORTWAVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE BERING MAINLY BRINGING SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM FILLS AND
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...WITH WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SOME DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS COULD BE SET ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AK WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TODAY
AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE LOW EXITS THE BERING...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE DECAYING FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BENEATH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A
MODERATING TREND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK68 PAFC 291254
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MAINLAND HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TO THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH THE SURFACE CENTER JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE TRANQUIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COASTS. TO
THE WEST AN ORGANIZED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH
THE RAIN BAND ALONG THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO TAPER DOWN WITH GUSTY GALES CONFINED NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WEST RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY MOVE SHORTWAVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE BERING MAINLY BRINGING SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM FILLS AND
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...WITH WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SOME DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS COULD BE SET ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AK WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TODAY
AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE LOW EXITS THE BERING...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE DECAYING FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BENEATH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A
MODERATING TREND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15



000
FXAK68 PAFC 290053
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA. CENTRAL PRESSURE BOTTOMED OUT THIS
MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 970S SUPPORTED BY A 150 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET...QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
WIND DATA INDICATES WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS WITH MORE
LOCALIZED STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
STORM OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. STABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE HAVE LED TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG..PRIMARILY ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE
BIG STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BRINGING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AND AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

LASTLY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TO INTERIOR ALASKA. THE
TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH MAY JUST CLIP THE NORTHEAST COPPER RIVER
BASIN WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SUNNY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE FEW OBSERVATIONS OUT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...
BASED ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE AT SHEMYA IT APPEARS ALL THE MODELS
ARE A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THUS...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE LOW END FOR WINDS EARLY ON. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN SURFACE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. MODEL RUNS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INDICATED THE
MAIN CENTER WOULD BE OVER THE ARCTIC. ALL SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE
THE CENTER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL OR THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH WEAKER
RIDGING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. EQUALLY IMPORTANT TO THE TEMPERATURE
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS IS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AXIS WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE COOK INLET REGION...WHICH MEANS NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZES AND
RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURE BOTH INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST. A
SMALL SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST WOULD ALTER THE
FORECAST. EVEN SO...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
SELECT LOCATIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO
MOST OF THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE RIDGE AXIS OVER COOK
INLET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD HELPING TO KEEP SEA
BREEZES AT BAY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN
SEWARD...WHITTIER...AND VALDEZ WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WHERE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND OFFSHORE FLOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW WITH
MANY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE
LOWEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY
ON SATURDAY WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS UNLESS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH. AT THIS TIME THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE TO THAT LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY OVER
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
BERING SEA LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE KUSKOKWIM COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER THE
COASTLINE TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE AS
STRONG OF A MOISTURE TAP AS RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL WARM AND DRY OUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE MODERATE ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FROM THE STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TO
A MORE SEASONAL RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BERING SEA AS THE STRONG LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
AND THE ALEUTIAN/PRIBILOF ISLANDS BEFORE WEAKENING TOMORROW...LIMITING
GALES TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE THE
HIGHEST TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
AS THE LOW MOVES BACK TOWARDS RUSSIA.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST TOMORROW. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA AS THE FRONT STALLS...BUT AS THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
THE DEEP MOISTURE TAP THAT OTHER RECENT SYSTEMS HAVE
HAD...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BENEATH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A
MODERATING TREND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 172 175 176 177 178 179 181 185 .
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DWK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK68 PAFC 290053
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA. CENTRAL PRESSURE BOTTOMED OUT THIS
MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 970S SUPPORTED BY A 150 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET...QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
WIND DATA INDICATES WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS WITH MORE
LOCALIZED STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
STORM OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. STABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE HAVE LED TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG..PRIMARILY ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE
BIG STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BRINGING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AND AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

LASTLY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TO INTERIOR ALASKA. THE
TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH MAY JUST CLIP THE NORTHEAST COPPER RIVER
BASIN WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SUNNY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE FEW OBSERVATIONS OUT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...
BASED ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE AT SHEMYA IT APPEARS ALL THE MODELS
ARE A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THUS...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE LOW END FOR WINDS EARLY ON. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN SURFACE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. MODEL RUNS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INDICATED THE
MAIN CENTER WOULD BE OVER THE ARCTIC. ALL SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE
THE CENTER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL OR THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH WEAKER
RIDGING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. EQUALLY IMPORTANT TO THE TEMPERATURE
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS IS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AXIS WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE COOK INLET REGION...WHICH MEANS NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZES AND
RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURE BOTH INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST. A
SMALL SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST WOULD ALTER THE
FORECAST. EVEN SO...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
SELECT LOCATIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO
MOST OF THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE RIDGE AXIS OVER COOK
INLET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD HELPING TO KEEP SEA
BREEZES AT BAY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN
SEWARD...WHITTIER...AND VALDEZ WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WHERE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND OFFSHORE FLOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW WITH
MANY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE
LOWEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY
ON SATURDAY WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS UNLESS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH. AT THIS TIME THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE TO THAT LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY OVER
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
BERING SEA LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE KUSKOKWIM COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER THE
COASTLINE TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE AS
STRONG OF A MOISTURE TAP AS RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL WARM AND DRY OUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE MODERATE ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FROM THE STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TO
A MORE SEASONAL RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BERING SEA AS THE STRONG LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
AND THE ALEUTIAN/PRIBILOF ISLANDS BEFORE WEAKENING TOMORROW...LIMITING
GALES TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE THE
HIGHEST TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
AS THE LOW MOVES BACK TOWARDS RUSSIA.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST TOMORROW. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA AS THE FRONT STALLS...BUT AS THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
THE DEEP MOISTURE TAP THAT OTHER RECENT SYSTEMS HAVE
HAD...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BENEATH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A
MODERATING TREND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 172 175 176 177 178 179 181 185 .
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DWK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK67 PAJK 282245
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
245 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW JUST SE OF MISTY FJORDS WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SE JUST INLAND OF THE CENTRAL BC COAST THRU FRI. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD SOME OVER THE GULF AND YUKON AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN THERE FRI. SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN THERE THRU FRI...WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING FRI.
MODELS WERE VERY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND CLOSE TO CURRENT
PRESSURE FORECAST IN GRIDS...SO DID NOT CHANGE PRESSURES. DID MAKE
OTHER TWEAKS THOUGH...WHICH WILL BE DESCRIBED BELOW.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL...MARINE LAYER
ISSUES...WINDS...AND TEMPS. RIGHT NOW...A BAND OF PRECIP IS
MOVING ACROSS MISTY FJORDS FROM THE NE WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THAT AREA AROUND THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP IN THIS BAND
IS MORE CONVECTIVE THAN IT WAS IN PREVIOUS BANDS MOVING IN. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MISTY FJORDS AREA THRU FRI...ALTHOUGH DO
INDICATE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND IT STAY MORE TO THE S OF
THERE. LEFT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING NEAR HYDER
AS WELL.

THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE ERN GULF
ATTM...WITH MAINLY SMALL HOLES IN IT NEAR THE COAST. THESE HOLES
WILL LIKELY FILL IN THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH
TO THE OUTER COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT BURN OFF FROM MUCH
OF THE COAST FRI. SOME FOG MAY ALSO BE IN THE MARINE LAYER
AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE NRN PARTS OF IT. THERE MAY ALSO
BE PATCHY RADIATION FOG OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.

WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE ERN GULF AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.
GENERALLY 20 KT W-NW WINDS ARE GOING ON OVER THE ERN GULF...WITH
LOCALIZED SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND CAPE SPENCER AND CAPE DECISION.
THINK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND 20 KT FOR
MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME DIMINISHING TREND MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NRN GULF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRI. INNER CHANNEL
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W TO N UP TO 20 KT THRU FRI...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL EFFECTS MAY CAUSE SOME SPOTS TO BECOME MORE S-SW BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRI AFTERNOON.

WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRI AS NLY FLOW BRINGS IN
WARMER AIR. MANY PLACES OVER THE N WILL GET WELL INTO THE 70S
FRI...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE WATER. THE
SRN AREA WILL ALSO BE WARMER ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS
AROUND. MOST PLACES OVER THE SRN AREA WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 FRI. THE OUTER COAST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AS THEY WILL
HAVE LESS SUNSHINE AND COOLER MARINE AIR COMING ASHORE...SO THEY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
CONTINUES FILLING AND UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHEAST ALASKA.. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUKON WILL TILT AND SPILL
UPPER DYNAMICS WESTWARD OVER ALASKA INTERIOR. THIS UPPER TROUGH
MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXPANDS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWEST.

REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF FOR ITS
GOOD CONSISTENCY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MARINE STRATUS WILL BE
CONFINED OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK AND NEW MODEL
RUNS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY
WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY FILLS AND DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDS BY MID WEEK WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RWT/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 282245
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
245 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW JUST SE OF MISTY FJORDS WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SE JUST INLAND OF THE CENTRAL BC COAST THRU FRI. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD SOME OVER THE GULF AND YUKON AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN THERE FRI. SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN THERE THRU FRI...WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING FRI.
MODELS WERE VERY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND CLOSE TO CURRENT
PRESSURE FORECAST IN GRIDS...SO DID NOT CHANGE PRESSURES. DID MAKE
OTHER TWEAKS THOUGH...WHICH WILL BE DESCRIBED BELOW.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL...MARINE LAYER
ISSUES...WINDS...AND TEMPS. RIGHT NOW...A BAND OF PRECIP IS
MOVING ACROSS MISTY FJORDS FROM THE NE WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THAT AREA AROUND THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP IN THIS BAND
IS MORE CONVECTIVE THAN IT WAS IN PREVIOUS BANDS MOVING IN. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MISTY FJORDS AREA THRU FRI...ALTHOUGH DO
INDICATE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND IT STAY MORE TO THE S OF
THERE. LEFT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING NEAR HYDER
AS WELL.

THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE ERN GULF
ATTM...WITH MAINLY SMALL HOLES IN IT NEAR THE COAST. THESE HOLES
WILL LIKELY FILL IN THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH
TO THE OUTER COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT BURN OFF FROM MUCH
OF THE COAST FRI. SOME FOG MAY ALSO BE IN THE MARINE LAYER
AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE NRN PARTS OF IT. THERE MAY ALSO
BE PATCHY RADIATION FOG OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.

WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE ERN GULF AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.
GENERALLY 20 KT W-NW WINDS ARE GOING ON OVER THE ERN GULF...WITH
LOCALIZED SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND CAPE SPENCER AND CAPE DECISION.
THINK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND 20 KT FOR
MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME DIMINISHING TREND MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NRN GULF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRI. INNER CHANNEL
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W TO N UP TO 20 KT THRU FRI...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL EFFECTS MAY CAUSE SOME SPOTS TO BECOME MORE S-SW BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRI AFTERNOON.

WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRI AS NLY FLOW BRINGS IN
WARMER AIR. MANY PLACES OVER THE N WILL GET WELL INTO THE 70S
FRI...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE WATER. THE
SRN AREA WILL ALSO BE WARMER ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS
AROUND. MOST PLACES OVER THE SRN AREA WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 FRI. THE OUTER COAST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AS THEY WILL
HAVE LESS SUNSHINE AND COOLER MARINE AIR COMING ASHORE...SO THEY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
CONTINUES FILLING AND UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHEAST ALASKA.. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUKON WILL TILT AND SPILL
UPPER DYNAMICS WESTWARD OVER ALASKA INTERIOR. THIS UPPER TROUGH
MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXPANDS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWEST.

REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF FOR ITS
GOOD CONSISTENCY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MARINE STRATUS WILL BE
CONFINED OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK AND NEW MODEL
RUNS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY
WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY FILLS AND DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDS BY MID WEEK WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RWT/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK69 PAFG 282016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF STATE HAS LOST A MAJORITY OF ITS
ENERGY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THE MODELS NOW DO FORM A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE TROF BY THIS
EVENING NEAR BETTLES. THE LOW THEN MOVES EAST TO THE BORDER BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE TROF THIS TROF...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO
POP UP AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT MOVES THE THERMAL TROF
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR TO REPLACE THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRI THROUGH
NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER.

RELATIVELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS AS OF NOW THAT
AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
IN THE BERING STRAIT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT BUT SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY
LATE TONIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AT 500H.

Q VECTORS ALSO SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO ALL OF THESE VARIABLE LEADS TO BELIEVE
THAT THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD HAVE SOME DECENT
ENERGY WITH IT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS WITH THE LONG WAVE TROF SWINGING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES UP OVER 30 FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL RAISE THE RIVER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WATER ALREADY OVER THE BANK THAT HAS CAUSED
FLOODING ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY MAY RISE A LITTLE THERE BUT THE SAG
RIVER APPEARS TO NOT BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 282016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF STATE HAS LOST A MAJORITY OF ITS
ENERGY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THE MODELS NOW DO FORM A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE TROF BY THIS
EVENING NEAR BETTLES. THE LOW THEN MOVES EAST TO THE BORDER BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE TROF THIS TROF...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO
POP UP AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT MOVES THE THERMAL TROF
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR TO REPLACE THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRI THROUGH
NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER.

RELATIVELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS AS OF NOW THAT
AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
IN THE BERING STRAIT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT BUT SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY
LATE TONIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AT 500H.

Q VECTORS ALSO SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO ALL OF THESE VARIABLE LEADS TO BELIEVE
THAT THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD HAVE SOME DECENT
ENERGY WITH IT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS WITH THE LONG WAVE TROF SWINGING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES UP OVER 30 FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL RAISE THE RIVER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WATER ALREADY OVER THE BANK THAT HAS CAUSED
FLOODING ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY MAY RISE A LITTLE THERE BUT THE SAG
RIVER APPEARS TO NOT BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15




000
FXAK67 PAJK 281748 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OVER MISTY FJORDS AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. WRAP AROUND CLOUD BANDS ARE STILL ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW
AND GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS
FROM JUNEAU SOUTH TO HYDER, BUT THE MORE NORTHERLY SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH THE LOW. BY LATE TONIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE HYDER AREA. BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN, LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MISTY FJORDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 J/KG AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES.
QPF NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT IN THE VERY LOW TOTALS SO FAR
THIS MONTH AND MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE DRIEST MAYS ON
RECORD FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

TREND ON SKY COVER TODAY WILL BE ONE OF GENERALLY CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, ALTHOUGH FIRST LIGHT IS SHOWING VERY NICE
CONDITIONS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AT THE START OF THE
DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR PART OF THE DAY TODAY AS WRAP
AROUND MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW. REGARDLESS, WENT WITH A SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ONE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WHEN IT RETURNS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AIDE IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND SOME OF THIS CAN BE SEEN ALREADY IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INITIAL VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
IS CONFIRMING EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN GULF.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED DOWN
TO THE MID 40S, BUT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S IN YAKUTAT,
BURWASH, AND HAINES JUNCTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NECESSITATE A
CLOSER LOOK AT JUST HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

NO CHANGES TO PRESSURE. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE GULF DERIVED FROM
GFS. TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED PER BIAS CORRECTED MOS. POP AND QPF
ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY, WARM AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
MID NEXT WEEK TO WETTER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE WSW. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGES DONE IN THE MID
RANGE JUST INCREASED TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN
INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH 850MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +11 TO +14 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S
AND AREAS NEAR THE WATER NEAR 70 WITH SEA BREEZES LIMITING THE
HIGHS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SEA STRATUS
OVER THE GULF THAT WILL BE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL ALSO
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE YUKON ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS NEAR
SKAGWAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AS IT SLIDES SE NEAR THE JUNEAU
AREA IN THE EVENING. IF THE TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO TRIGGERS
SHOWERS THERE MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NOT
MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH AND MOST MARINE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
KT. AREAS NEAR CROSS SOUND AND CAPE DECISION THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE THERMAL DIFFERENCE AND PRODUCE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT WINDS FROM THE WNW.

THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GEM/GFS WITH A
UPPER TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
YUKON. THE EC IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT DROPS IT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS/GEM SHEER THE TROF APART OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD BE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER AND MID
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO BE ONSHORE WITH THE INCREASED THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THERE IS AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED A BLEND OF
THE NAM/EC FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME GFS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. KEPT
WITH THE WPC FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION BUT DID INCREASE THE
POPS ABOVE WPC ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT DELAYS TODAY. FOG WILL
RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE HAVE SOME OPERATION IMPACTS
AT JUNEAU OWING TO LOW TIDE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE. LATE
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL LIGHT CHOP OR TURBULENCE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CURRENTS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 281748 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OVER MISTY FJORDS AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. WRAP AROUND CLOUD BANDS ARE STILL ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW
AND GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS
FROM JUNEAU SOUTH TO HYDER, BUT THE MORE NORTHERLY SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH THE LOW. BY LATE TONIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE HYDER AREA. BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN, LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MISTY FJORDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 J/KG AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES.
QPF NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT IN THE VERY LOW TOTALS SO FAR
THIS MONTH AND MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE DRIEST MAYS ON
RECORD FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

TREND ON SKY COVER TODAY WILL BE ONE OF GENERALLY CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, ALTHOUGH FIRST LIGHT IS SHOWING VERY NICE
CONDITIONS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AT THE START OF THE
DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR PART OF THE DAY TODAY AS WRAP
AROUND MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW. REGARDLESS, WENT WITH A SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ONE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WHEN IT RETURNS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AIDE IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND SOME OF THIS CAN BE SEEN ALREADY IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INITIAL VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
IS CONFIRMING EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN GULF.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED DOWN
TO THE MID 40S, BUT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S IN YAKUTAT,
BURWASH, AND HAINES JUNCTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NECESSITATE A
CLOSER LOOK AT JUST HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

NO CHANGES TO PRESSURE. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE GULF DERIVED FROM
GFS. TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED PER BIAS CORRECTED MOS. POP AND QPF
ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY, WARM AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
MID NEXT WEEK TO WETTER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE WSW. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGES DONE IN THE MID
RANGE JUST INCREASED TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN
INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH 850MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +11 TO +14 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S
AND AREAS NEAR THE WATER NEAR 70 WITH SEA BREEZES LIMITING THE
HIGHS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SEA STRATUS
OVER THE GULF THAT WILL BE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL ALSO
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE YUKON ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS NEAR
SKAGWAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AS IT SLIDES SE NEAR THE JUNEAU
AREA IN THE EVENING. IF THE TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO TRIGGERS
SHOWERS THERE MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NOT
MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH AND MOST MARINE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
KT. AREAS NEAR CROSS SOUND AND CAPE DECISION THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE THERMAL DIFFERENCE AND PRODUCE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT WINDS FROM THE WNW.

THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GEM/GFS WITH A
UPPER TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
YUKON. THE EC IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT DROPS IT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS/GEM SHEER THE TROF APART OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD BE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER AND MID
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO BE ONSHORE WITH THE INCREASED THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THERE IS AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED A BLEND OF
THE NAM/EC FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME GFS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. KEPT
WITH THE WPC FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION BUT DID INCREASE THE
POPS ABOVE WPC ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT DELAYS TODAY. FOG WILL
RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE HAVE SOME OPERATION IMPACTS
AT JUNEAU OWING TO LOW TIDE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE. LATE
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL LIGHT CHOP OR TURBULENCE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CURRENTS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 281416
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
616 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OVER MISTY FJORDS AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. WRAP AROUND CLOUD BANDS ARE STILL ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW
AND GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS
FROM JUNEAU SOUTH TO HYDER, BUT THE MORE NORTHERLY SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH THE LOW. BY LATE TONIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE HYDER ARE. BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN, LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FOR OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MISTY FJORDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 J/KG AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES.
QPF NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT IN THE VERY LOW TOTALS SO FAR
THIS MONTH AND MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE DRIEST MAYS ON
RECORD FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

TREND ON SKY COVER TODAY WILL BE ONE OF GENERALLY CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, ALTHOUGH FIRST LIGHT IS SHOWING VERY NICE
CONDITIONS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AT THE START OF THE
DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR PART OF THE DAY TODAY AS WRAP
AROUND MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW. REGARDLESS, WENT WITH A SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ONE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WHEN IT RETURNS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AIDE IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND SOME OF THIS CAN BE SEEN ALREADY IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INITIAL VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
IS CONFIRMING EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN GULF.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED DOWN
TO THE MID 40S, BUT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S IN YAKUTAT,
BURWASH, AND HAINES JUNCTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NECESSITATE A
CLOSER LOOK AT JUST HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

NO CHANGES TO PRESSURE. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE GULF DERIVED FROM
GFS. TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED PER BIAS CORRECTED MOS. POP AND QPF
ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT DELAYS TODAY. FOG WILL
RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE HAVE SOME OPERATION IMPACTS
AT JUNEAU OWING TO LOW TIDE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE. LATE
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL LIGHT CHOP OR TURBULENCE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CURRENTS.

.LONG TERM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY, WARM AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
MID NEXT WEEK TO WETTER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE WSW. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGES DONE IN THE MID
RANGE JUST INCREASED TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN
INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH 850MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +11 TO +14 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S
AND AREAS NEAR THE WATER NEAR 70 WITH SEA BREEZES LIMITING THE
HIGHS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SEA STRATUS
OVER THE GULF THAT WILL BE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL ALSO
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE YUKON ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS NEAR
SKAGWAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AS IT SLIDES SE NEAR THE JUNEAU
AREA IN THE EVENING. IF THE TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO TRIGGERS
SHOWERS THERE MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NOT
MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH AND MOST MARINE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
KT. AREAS NEAR CROSS SOUND AND CAPE DECISION THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE THERMAL DIFFERENCE AND PRODUCE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT WINDS FROM THE WNW.

THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GEM/GFS WITH A
UPPER TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
YUKON. THE EC IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT DROPS IT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS/GEM SHEER THE TROF APART OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD BE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER AND MID
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO BE ONSHORE WITH THE INCREASED THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THERE IS AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED A BLEND OF
THE NAM/EC FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME GFS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. KEPT
WITH THE WPC FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION BUT DID INCREASE THE
POPS ABOVE WPC ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






000
FXAK67 PAJK 281416
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
616 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OVER MISTY FJORDS AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. WRAP AROUND CLOUD BANDS ARE STILL ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW
AND GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS
FROM JUNEAU SOUTH TO HYDER, BUT THE MORE NORTHERLY SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH THE LOW. BY LATE TONIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE HYDER ARE. BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN, LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FOR OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MISTY FJORDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 J/KG AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES.
QPF NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT IN THE VERY LOW TOTALS SO FAR
THIS MONTH AND MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE DRIEST MAYS ON
RECORD FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

TREND ON SKY COVER TODAY WILL BE ONE OF GENERALLY CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, ALTHOUGH FIRST LIGHT IS SHOWING VERY NICE
CONDITIONS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AT THE START OF THE
DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR PART OF THE DAY TODAY AS WRAP
AROUND MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW. REGARDLESS, WENT WITH A SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ONE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WHEN IT RETURNS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AIDE IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND SOME OF THIS CAN BE SEEN ALREADY IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INITIAL VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
IS CONFIRMING EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN GULF.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED DOWN
TO THE MID 40S, BUT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S IN YAKUTAT,
BURWASH, AND HAINES JUNCTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NECESSITATE A
CLOSER LOOK AT JUST HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

NO CHANGES TO PRESSURE. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE GULF DERIVED FROM
GFS. TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED PER BIAS CORRECTED MOS. POP AND QPF
ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT DELAYS TODAY. FOG WILL
RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE HAVE SOME OPERATION IMPACTS
AT JUNEAU OWING TO LOW TIDE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE. LATE
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL LIGHT CHOP OR TURBULENCE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CURRENTS.

.LONG TERM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY, WARM AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
MID NEXT WEEK TO WETTER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE WSW. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGES DONE IN THE MID
RANGE JUST INCREASED TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN
INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH 850MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +11 TO +14 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S
AND AREAS NEAR THE WATER NEAR 70 WITH SEA BREEZES LIMITING THE
HIGHS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SEA STRATUS
OVER THE GULF THAT WILL BE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL ALSO
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE YUKON ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS NEAR
SKAGWAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AS IT SLIDES SE NEAR THE JUNEAU
AREA IN THE EVENING. IF THE TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO TRIGGERS
SHOWERS THERE MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NOT
MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH AND MOST MARINE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
KT. AREAS NEAR CROSS SOUND AND CAPE DECISION THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE THERMAL DIFFERENCE AND PRODUCE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT WINDS FROM THE WNW.

THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GEM/GFS WITH A
UPPER TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
YUKON. THE EC IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT DROPS IT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS/GEM SHEER THE TROF APART OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD BE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER AND MID
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO BE ONSHORE WITH THE INCREASED THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THERE IS AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED A BLEND OF
THE NAM/EC FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME GFS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. KEPT
WITH THE WPC FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION BUT DID INCREASE THE
POPS ABOVE WPC ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK68 PAFC 281302
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ALCAN BORDER. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL DRY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH A RAIN BAND STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF
BETHEL TO NEAR ILIAMNA. THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE IS MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING THIS MORNING AS A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE OVERNIGHT
PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE USE OF THE NAM ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND A COMBINATION
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF UTILIZED FOR THE WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TODAY FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF GLENNALLEN. OFFSHORE
WINDS...GUSTY IN PREFERRED LOCATIONS...WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INLAND DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THESE WILL WEAKEN OR EVEN REVERSE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES A THERMAL LOW INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AFTER A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED THIS MORNING WITH THE DECAYING
FRONT...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. ON FRIDAY WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE AK RANGE...BUT THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF BETHEL AND
ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS AND SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS ON FRI WITH RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME SHOWERY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 - SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC (BEAUFORT/CHUKCHI SEAS)
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
UPSTREAM A CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN RUSSIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS TROUGH...MAINLY AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND FORCING.

THE BIG HEADLINE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE KEY TO THIS WARMTH IS ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SLIDING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM
THE INTERIOR AND HINDER OR PREVENT FORMATION OF SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE GULF COAST. IF THESE UPPER WAVES ACTUALLY TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN EVEN HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THUS IT
IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS STEADY PARADE OF UPPER WAVES ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...170 172-179 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...SB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 281302
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ALCAN BORDER. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL DRY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH A RAIN BAND STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF
BETHEL TO NEAR ILIAMNA. THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE IS MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING THIS MORNING AS A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE OVERNIGHT
PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE USE OF THE NAM ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND A COMBINATION
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF UTILIZED FOR THE WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TODAY FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF GLENNALLEN. OFFSHORE
WINDS...GUSTY IN PREFERRED LOCATIONS...WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INLAND DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THESE WILL WEAKEN OR EVEN REVERSE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES A THERMAL LOW INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AFTER A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED THIS MORNING WITH THE DECAYING
FRONT...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. ON FRIDAY WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE AK RANGE...BUT THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF BETHEL AND
ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS AND SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS ON FRI WITH RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME SHOWERY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 - SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC (BEAUFORT/CHUKCHI SEAS)
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
UPSTREAM A CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN RUSSIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS TROUGH...MAINLY AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND FORCING.

THE BIG HEADLINE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE KEY TO THIS WARMTH IS ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SLIDING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM
THE INTERIOR AND HINDER OR PREVENT FORMATION OF SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE GULF COAST. IF THESE UPPER WAVES ACTUALLY TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN EVEN HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THUS IT
IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS STEADY PARADE OF UPPER WAVES ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...170 172-179 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...SB



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