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000
FXAK67 PAJK 252347
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS SHIFT RELIED LARGELY ON CONCEPTS AND PRIOR
EXPERIENCES...WITH SOME HELP FROM HOW WINDS RESPONDED TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.

 LET US BEGIN WITH WHAT WE KNOW. RAIN. WHETHER IT FALLS AT TIMES
IN BURSTS LIKE SHOWERS OWING TO SOME VERTICAL
ACCELERATIONS/INSTABILITY IN LAYERS ALOFT OR WHETHER IT FALLS
MORE STEADILY AT TIMES...AFTER ATTEMPTING TO ANALYZE SUBTLE
ATMOSPHERIC REGIMES AND FAILING, DECIDED TO DESCRIBE THINGS HOW
IT IS...RAIN FALLING IN PERIODS. DID BRIEFLY COORDINATE WITH RFC
BASED ON RAINFALL TOTALS, AND SEE NO THREATS OF ANY RISES EVEN TO
ACTION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT IT WILL BE WET.

 THE LARGEST TIME SPENT WAS FOR WINDS. TRIED TO USE THE 850 NAM
WINDS FOR TIMING ISSUES IN REGARDS TO JETS THAT MAY SUPPORT
SURFACE LEVEL BURSTS. ARRIVED AT MORE SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WAS ALREADY
COVERED. STIKINE VESSEL CALLED OUR ATTENTION EARLY ON THAT WINDS
WERE GOING TO BLOW STRONGER THAN FORECAST TODAY AS CLARENCE
STRAIT WAS ALREADY BLOWING SUSTAINED AT 30 KT. A QUICK MORNING
UPDATE TO BOOST WINDS FOR THE DAY COUPLED WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 KT AT LINCOLN ROCK LEAD US TO POST A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
EVENING. NAM INTERESTINGLY ADVERTISING ANOTHER 850 MB JET MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE BOOSTED CLARENCE TO 30 HERE...WE
MAY NEED TO SERIOUSLY THINK OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER GALE.
STEPHENS PASSAGE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ANTICIPATION. IN THE END DID
NOT GO SMALL CRAFT BUT INCLUDED SOME GUSTY LANGUAGE FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PROBABLY STARTS TO GO ALOFT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN FIVE FINGERS AND JUNEAU.

 COOLED TEMPS JUST A TAD AGAIN TO LOWER INTO THE 50S OVER THE FAR
NORTH...FOR RAIN COOLED AIR. LOW 50S LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS.

 USED NAM AND A LITTLE ECMWF FOR UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
EXCELLENT ON PERIODS OF RAIN...SKETCHY ON WIND GUSTS REGARDING
TIMING/SPATIAL SPREAD.

 .LONG TERM...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEDGED IN BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THIS
PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN AND ALLOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP. GFS NOT SHOWING THIS YET, BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL DAYS YET TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND TO BETTER DEPICT THE LOCATION OF THE NEXT WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GULF. CYCLONIC OFFSHORE
WINDS 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE A DIMINISHING SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
SATURDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO STORM TOTALS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RIVERS
TO GET INTO FLOOD STAGE. ONE THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE
WHETHER A FORMER TYPHOON GETS BLOCKED AND SHUNTED TO THE NORTH
WELL WEST OF OUR AREA OR PASSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BE ABLE TO
TRACK EAST AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF. WERE THAT TO HAPPEN, THERE COULD BE
WIDE SPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON THIS. UPDATES TO POP MADE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT USING A BLEND OF ECMWF, GFS, AND GEM. QPF
PRIMARILY FROM RFC WITH SOME ECMWF.

 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TOO MUCH DIURNAL
VARIATION - TOO WARM DURING THE DAY, AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT -
BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TEMPERATURES.
EXISTING VALUES LOOKED GOOD, SO DID NOT MAKE AND CHANGES TO TEMPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WET WEATHER BASED ON A STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF IS ABOVE AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TRACKING WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-032>035-041>043.


$$

JWA/FRITSCH






000
FXAK67 PAJK 252347
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS SHIFT RELIED LARGELY ON CONCEPTS AND PRIOR
EXPERIENCES...WITH SOME HELP FROM HOW WINDS RESPONDED TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.

 LET US BEGIN WITH WHAT WE KNOW. RAIN. WHETHER IT FALLS AT TIMES
IN BURSTS LIKE SHOWERS OWING TO SOME VERTICAL
ACCELERATIONS/INSTABILITY IN LAYERS ALOFT OR WHETHER IT FALLS
MORE STEADILY AT TIMES...AFTER ATTEMPTING TO ANALYZE SUBTLE
ATMOSPHERIC REGIMES AND FAILING, DECIDED TO DESCRIBE THINGS HOW
IT IS...RAIN FALLING IN PERIODS. DID BRIEFLY COORDINATE WITH RFC
BASED ON RAINFALL TOTALS, AND SEE NO THREATS OF ANY RISES EVEN TO
ACTION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT IT WILL BE WET.

 THE LARGEST TIME SPENT WAS FOR WINDS. TRIED TO USE THE 850 NAM
WINDS FOR TIMING ISSUES IN REGARDS TO JETS THAT MAY SUPPORT
SURFACE LEVEL BURSTS. ARRIVED AT MORE SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WAS ALREADY
COVERED. STIKINE VESSEL CALLED OUR ATTENTION EARLY ON THAT WINDS
WERE GOING TO BLOW STRONGER THAN FORECAST TODAY AS CLARENCE
STRAIT WAS ALREADY BLOWING SUSTAINED AT 30 KT. A QUICK MORNING
UPDATE TO BOOST WINDS FOR THE DAY COUPLED WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 KT AT LINCOLN ROCK LEAD US TO POST A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
EVENING. NAM INTERESTINGLY ADVERTISING ANOTHER 850 MB JET MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE BOOSTED CLARENCE TO 30 HERE...WE
MAY NEED TO SERIOUSLY THINK OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER GALE.
STEPHENS PASSAGE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ANTICIPATION. IN THE END DID
NOT GO SMALL CRAFT BUT INCLUDED SOME GUSTY LANGUAGE FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PROBABLY STARTS TO GO ALOFT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN FIVE FINGERS AND JUNEAU.

 COOLED TEMPS JUST A TAD AGAIN TO LOWER INTO THE 50S OVER THE FAR
NORTH...FOR RAIN COOLED AIR. LOW 50S LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS.

 USED NAM AND A LITTLE ECMWF FOR UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
EXCELLENT ON PERIODS OF RAIN...SKETCHY ON WIND GUSTS REGARDING
TIMING/SPATIAL SPREAD.

 .LONG TERM...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEDGED IN BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THIS
PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN AND ALLOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP. GFS NOT SHOWING THIS YET, BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL DAYS YET TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND TO BETTER DEPICT THE LOCATION OF THE NEXT WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GULF. CYCLONIC OFFSHORE
WINDS 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE A DIMINISHING SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
SATURDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO STORM TOTALS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RIVERS
TO GET INTO FLOOD STAGE. ONE THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE
WHETHER A FORMER TYPHOON GETS BLOCKED AND SHUNTED TO THE NORTH
WELL WEST OF OUR AREA OR PASSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BE ABLE TO
TRACK EAST AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF. WERE THAT TO HAPPEN, THERE COULD BE
WIDE SPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON THIS. UPDATES TO POP MADE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT USING A BLEND OF ECMWF, GFS, AND GEM. QPF
PRIMARILY FROM RFC WITH SOME ECMWF.

 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TOO MUCH DIURNAL
VARIATION - TOO WARM DURING THE DAY, AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT -
BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TEMPERATURES.
EXISTING VALUES LOOKED GOOD, SO DID NOT MAKE AND CHANGES TO TEMPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WET WEATHER BASED ON A STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF IS ABOVE AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TRACKING WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-032>035-041>043.


$$

JWA/FRITSCH






000
FXAK67 PAJK 252347
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS SHIFT RELIED LARGELY ON CONCEPTS AND PRIOR
EXPERIENCES...WITH SOME HELP FROM HOW WINDS RESPONDED TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.

 LET US BEGIN WITH WHAT WE KNOW. RAIN. WHETHER IT FALLS AT TIMES
IN BURSTS LIKE SHOWERS OWING TO SOME VERTICAL
ACCELERATIONS/INSTABILITY IN LAYERS ALOFT OR WHETHER IT FALLS
MORE STEADILY AT TIMES...AFTER ATTEMPTING TO ANALYZE SUBTLE
ATMOSPHERIC REGIMES AND FAILING, DECIDED TO DESCRIBE THINGS HOW
IT IS...RAIN FALLING IN PERIODS. DID BRIEFLY COORDINATE WITH RFC
BASED ON RAINFALL TOTALS, AND SEE NO THREATS OF ANY RISES EVEN TO
ACTION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT IT WILL BE WET.

 THE LARGEST TIME SPENT WAS FOR WINDS. TRIED TO USE THE 850 NAM
WINDS FOR TIMING ISSUES IN REGARDS TO JETS THAT MAY SUPPORT
SURFACE LEVEL BURSTS. ARRIVED AT MORE SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WAS ALREADY
COVERED. STIKINE VESSEL CALLED OUR ATTENTION EARLY ON THAT WINDS
WERE GOING TO BLOW STRONGER THAN FORECAST TODAY AS CLARENCE
STRAIT WAS ALREADY BLOWING SUSTAINED AT 30 KT. A QUICK MORNING
UPDATE TO BOOST WINDS FOR THE DAY COUPLED WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 KT AT LINCOLN ROCK LEAD US TO POST A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
EVENING. NAM INTERESTINGLY ADVERTISING ANOTHER 850 MB JET MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE BOOSTED CLARENCE TO 30 HERE...WE
MAY NEED TO SERIOUSLY THINK OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER GALE.
STEPHENS PASSAGE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ANTICIPATION. IN THE END DID
NOT GO SMALL CRAFT BUT INCLUDED SOME GUSTY LANGUAGE FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PROBABLY STARTS TO GO ALOFT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN FIVE FINGERS AND JUNEAU.

 COOLED TEMPS JUST A TAD AGAIN TO LOWER INTO THE 50S OVER THE FAR
NORTH...FOR RAIN COOLED AIR. LOW 50S LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS.

 USED NAM AND A LITTLE ECMWF FOR UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
EXCELLENT ON PERIODS OF RAIN...SKETCHY ON WIND GUSTS REGARDING
TIMING/SPATIAL SPREAD.

 .LONG TERM...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEDGED IN BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THIS
PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN AND ALLOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP. GFS NOT SHOWING THIS YET, BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL DAYS YET TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND TO BETTER DEPICT THE LOCATION OF THE NEXT WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GULF. CYCLONIC OFFSHORE
WINDS 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE A DIMINISHING SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
SATURDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO STORM TOTALS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RIVERS
TO GET INTO FLOOD STAGE. ONE THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE
WHETHER A FORMER TYPHOON GETS BLOCKED AND SHUNTED TO THE NORTH
WELL WEST OF OUR AREA OR PASSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BE ABLE TO
TRACK EAST AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF. WERE THAT TO HAPPEN, THERE COULD BE
WIDE SPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON THIS. UPDATES TO POP MADE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT USING A BLEND OF ECMWF, GFS, AND GEM. QPF
PRIMARILY FROM RFC WITH SOME ECMWF.

 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TOO MUCH DIURNAL
VARIATION - TOO WARM DURING THE DAY, AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT -
BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TEMPERATURES.
EXISTING VALUES LOOKED GOOD, SO DID NOT MAKE AND CHANGES TO TEMPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WET WEATHER BASED ON A STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF IS ABOVE AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TRACKING WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-032>035-041>043.


$$

JWA/FRITSCH






000
FXAK67 PAJK 252347
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS SHIFT RELIED LARGELY ON CONCEPTS AND PRIOR
EXPERIENCES...WITH SOME HELP FROM HOW WINDS RESPONDED TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.

 LET US BEGIN WITH WHAT WE KNOW. RAIN. WHETHER IT FALLS AT TIMES
IN BURSTS LIKE SHOWERS OWING TO SOME VERTICAL
ACCELERATIONS/INSTABILITY IN LAYERS ALOFT OR WHETHER IT FALLS
MORE STEADILY AT TIMES...AFTER ATTEMPTING TO ANALYZE SUBTLE
ATMOSPHERIC REGIMES AND FAILING, DECIDED TO DESCRIBE THINGS HOW
IT IS...RAIN FALLING IN PERIODS. DID BRIEFLY COORDINATE WITH RFC
BASED ON RAINFALL TOTALS, AND SEE NO THREATS OF ANY RISES EVEN TO
ACTION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT IT WILL BE WET.

 THE LARGEST TIME SPENT WAS FOR WINDS. TRIED TO USE THE 850 NAM
WINDS FOR TIMING ISSUES IN REGARDS TO JETS THAT MAY SUPPORT
SURFACE LEVEL BURSTS. ARRIVED AT MORE SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WAS ALREADY
COVERED. STIKINE VESSEL CALLED OUR ATTENTION EARLY ON THAT WINDS
WERE GOING TO BLOW STRONGER THAN FORECAST TODAY AS CLARENCE
STRAIT WAS ALREADY BLOWING SUSTAINED AT 30 KT. A QUICK MORNING
UPDATE TO BOOST WINDS FOR THE DAY COUPLED WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 KT AT LINCOLN ROCK LEAD US TO POST A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
EVENING. NAM INTERESTINGLY ADVERTISING ANOTHER 850 MB JET MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE BOOSTED CLARENCE TO 30 HERE...WE
MAY NEED TO SERIOUSLY THINK OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER GALE.
STEPHENS PASSAGE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ANTICIPATION. IN THE END DID
NOT GO SMALL CRAFT BUT INCLUDED SOME GUSTY LANGUAGE FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PROBABLY STARTS TO GO ALOFT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN FIVE FINGERS AND JUNEAU.

 COOLED TEMPS JUST A TAD AGAIN TO LOWER INTO THE 50S OVER THE FAR
NORTH...FOR RAIN COOLED AIR. LOW 50S LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS.

 USED NAM AND A LITTLE ECMWF FOR UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
EXCELLENT ON PERIODS OF RAIN...SKETCHY ON WIND GUSTS REGARDING
TIMING/SPATIAL SPREAD.

 .LONG TERM...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEDGED IN BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THIS
PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN AND ALLOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP. GFS NOT SHOWING THIS YET, BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL DAYS YET TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND TO BETTER DEPICT THE LOCATION OF THE NEXT WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GULF. CYCLONIC OFFSHORE
WINDS 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE A DIMINISHING SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
SATURDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO STORM TOTALS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RIVERS
TO GET INTO FLOOD STAGE. ONE THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE
WHETHER A FORMER TYPHOON GETS BLOCKED AND SHUNTED TO THE NORTH
WELL WEST OF OUR AREA OR PASSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BE ABLE TO
TRACK EAST AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF. WERE THAT TO HAPPEN, THERE COULD BE
WIDE SPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON THIS. UPDATES TO POP MADE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT USING A BLEND OF ECMWF, GFS, AND GEM. QPF
PRIMARILY FROM RFC WITH SOME ECMWF.

 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TOO MUCH DIURNAL
VARIATION - TOO WARM DURING THE DAY, AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT -
BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TEMPERATURES.
EXISTING VALUES LOOKED GOOD, SO DID NOT MAKE AND CHANGES TO TEMPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WET WEATHER BASED ON A STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF IS ABOVE AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TRACKING WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-032>035-041>043.


$$

JWA/FRITSCH





  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 252234
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE POLE AND
ANOTHER ONE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
CONNECTING THE TWO LOWS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.

THE MODELS ALSO DROP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
ON MON MORNING. THIS WILL JUST SEND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER
TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVERTISED TO LEAN OVER AND SPREAD TO A
EAST WEST ORIENTATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY TUE EVENING.

UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHORT WAVES UP INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SUN NIGHT OR MON MORNING FROM
ABOUT THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE SOME MODERATE
RAIN FROM GALENA SOUTHEASTWARD BUT HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT A CONCERN
AT THIS TIME.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
RAISE THE RIVERS TO ANY LEVELS OF FLOODING. RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY
RUN HIGH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 252234
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE POLE AND
ANOTHER ONE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
CONNECTING THE TWO LOWS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.

THE MODELS ALSO DROP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
ON MON MORNING. THIS WILL JUST SEND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER
TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVERTISED TO LEAN OVER AND SPREAD TO A
EAST WEST ORIENTATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY TUE EVENING.

UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHORT WAVES UP INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SUN NIGHT OR MON MORNING FROM
ABOUT THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE SOME MODERATE
RAIN FROM GALENA SOUTHEASTWARD BUT HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT A CONCERN
AT THIS TIME.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
RAISE THE RIVERS TO ANY LEVELS OF FLOODING. RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY
RUN HIGH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14


  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 252146
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALASKA AND ANOTHER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A TROUGH/FRONT/DEFORMATION
BAND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BETWEEN THE
TWO UPPER LOWS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN THROUGH 84 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE TRANSITION OF THE CENTRAL ALASKA
LOW INTO THE GULF LOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN STILL YET MORE DIFFERENCES ON HOW THEY HANDLE
EASTERLY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONSOLIDATED (BY MONDAY) GULF
LOW...AND WITH A SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE RE-DEVELOPING CENTRAL
ALASKA LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING AS THE DEFORMATION BAND
WEAKENS AND SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. BY LATER SATURDAY THE CENTRAL
ALASKAN LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THE NAM IS BY FAR
THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITHOUT SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS CAN PROBABLY BE SAFELY DISREGARDED. THE ECMWF AND GLOBAL
GEM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND FAIRLY STRONG
WITH A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS IS DANCING TO ITS OWN TUNE AND TAKES
VERY LITTLE ENERGY SOUTHWARD...BASICALLY SLOWLY DISSIPATING THE
CENTRAL ALASKAN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE "TRUTH" IS LIKELY
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION...BUT WITH A NOD TOWARDS THE GFS
DUE TO THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THIS RESULTS IN A FORECAST THAT
KEEPS SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...BUT GENERALLY EAST OF
ANCHORAGE. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION IS ALSO STRONGER WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND MORE
PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

THERE IS ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE CENTRAL ALASKA LOW STRENGTHENS
AGAIN. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER...WITH THE SYSTEM STILL BACK IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BERING RIDGE PROTECTS THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
SYSTEM WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE LARGE RANGE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...POPS WILL BE "BROAD BRUSHED" UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER CLARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BE
DOMINANT BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY...WITH A CLASSIC
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA REGION. THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY WILL BE A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A NORTHERLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BY MIDWEEK...EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON SOUTHERN
ALASKA...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG EASTERLY WAVES TRACKING WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS ARE RATHER LARGE...BUT THEY ALL HINT AT
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION. STAY TUNED...

BY LATE WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A CONTINUED HIGH LATITUDE
RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE BERING AND A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE GULF.
THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...WITH
INDIVIDUAL DAYS STRONGLY MODULATED BY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE LENGTH
FEATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 252146
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALASKA AND ANOTHER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A TROUGH/FRONT/DEFORMATION
BAND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BETWEEN THE
TWO UPPER LOWS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN THROUGH 84 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE TRANSITION OF THE CENTRAL ALASKA
LOW INTO THE GULF LOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN STILL YET MORE DIFFERENCES ON HOW THEY HANDLE
EASTERLY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONSOLIDATED (BY MONDAY) GULF
LOW...AND WITH A SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE RE-DEVELOPING CENTRAL
ALASKA LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING AS THE DEFORMATION BAND
WEAKENS AND SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. BY LATER SATURDAY THE CENTRAL
ALASKAN LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THE NAM IS BY FAR
THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITHOUT SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS CAN PROBABLY BE SAFELY DISREGARDED. THE ECMWF AND GLOBAL
GEM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND FAIRLY STRONG
WITH A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS IS DANCING TO ITS OWN TUNE AND TAKES
VERY LITTLE ENERGY SOUTHWARD...BASICALLY SLOWLY DISSIPATING THE
CENTRAL ALASKAN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE "TRUTH" IS LIKELY
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION...BUT WITH A NOD TOWARDS THE GFS
DUE TO THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THIS RESULTS IN A FORECAST THAT
KEEPS SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...BUT GENERALLY EAST OF
ANCHORAGE. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION IS ALSO STRONGER WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND MORE
PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

THERE IS ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE CENTRAL ALASKA LOW STRENGTHENS
AGAIN. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER...WITH THE SYSTEM STILL BACK IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BERING RIDGE PROTECTS THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
SYSTEM WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE LARGE RANGE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...POPS WILL BE "BROAD BRUSHED" UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER CLARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BE
DOMINANT BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY...WITH A CLASSIC
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA REGION. THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY WILL BE A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A NORTHERLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BY MIDWEEK...EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON SOUTHERN
ALASKA...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG EASTERLY WAVES TRACKING WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS ARE RATHER LARGE...BUT THEY ALL HINT AT
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION. STAY TUNED...

BY LATE WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A CONTINUED HIGH LATITUDE
RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE BERING AND A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE GULF.
THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...WITH
INDIVIDUAL DAYS STRONGLY MODULATED BY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE LENGTH
FEATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 251315
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND AK THIS
MORNING IS SPLIT INTO TWO FEATURES. THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH
TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND IS THE CURRENT WEATHERMAKER WITH A WAVE
MOVING AROUND IT`S BASE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL. THE SECOND FEATURE
IS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THE MAT-SU...TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND THE ALASKA RANGE.
ABUNDANT RAIN IS FALLING WITH THIS FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS ACCENTUATED
BY IT`S EXTREMELY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT. ELSEWHERE A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE GULF OF AK WITH A HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND AND A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING. THE FORECAST
PROBLEM IS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
BERING HIGH AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. COMPARISON OF
JET STREAM SOLUTIONS SHOWS THE EC TO HAVE STRONG NEARLY MERIDIONAL
FLOW THAT DRIVES ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN TROUGH INTO THE BASE OF
THE GULF TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACCENTUATE THE AMPLITUDE AND RESULT IN
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONFIGURATION. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND WHICH WILL ALLOW THE CONFIGURATION TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

THIS MEANS THAT TODAY`S WAVE/FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
INTO THE COPPER RIVE BASIN BY TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO REACH THE
AKPEN TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON SAT A WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST AK MOVING
AROUND THE GULF LOW  WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN SAT INTO SUN.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVING AROUND THE BERING LOW WILL REACH WESTERN
AK TONIGHT AND SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUN. THE THIRD WAVE REACHES
WESTERN AK SUN AND DIVES ACROSS THE AKPEN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
WEST AS IT SIMULTANEOUSLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TONIGHT INTO SAT AND WHERE IT PERSISTS INTO MON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN CROSSES THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES LATER ON SUN INTO MON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

DRY AND INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL RAIN
RETURNS SUN INTO MON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA...AND A
LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SUPPORTING
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. EVENTUALLY...THE LARGE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH INCREASING
THREATS FOR EASTERLY WAVES TO ROTATE INTO THE MAINLAND...KEEPING
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE
MAINLAND...WITH DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS HEAVILY MODULATED BY THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL EASTERLY WAVES. ACROSS THE BERING...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS...WITH RAIN THREATS LARGELY REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS/JA JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 251310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
510 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO ANCHORAGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT WHILE A LOW IN THE TROUGH ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FAIRBANKS ALSO PERSISTS. RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATE. THE SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SUN.

SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH COVERING THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING
SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND EXPAND TO A 1025 MB CENTER NORTH OF BARROW
SAT AM WHICH THEN DRIFTS NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT FROM INUVIK CANADA
TO FORT YUKON TO EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE TO DENALI PARK WILL MOVE
TO EAGLE TO GULKANA THROUGH 4AM SAT...AND TO DAWSON TO NORHTWAY
THROUGH 4AM SUN. WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE EAST TO EXTEND FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO
BETHEL AT 4PM SAT...WITH A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT 4AM SUN.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH SAT THEN SOME DIFFERENCES
ALOFT BY SUNDAY ON HOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN THE MEDIUM
TERM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FAVOR THE TROUGH SPLITTING AND MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTH WITH A RESULTANT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
PRODUCES EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THE GFS
HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DRIFTS IT EAST TO NEAR
TO CANADA.

NORTH SLOPE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THOUGH EXPECT ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FEET...AND REMAINING RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH SOME MINOR
AMOUNTS CONTINUING SAT EAST OF THE SAG RIVER. COASTAL WINDS
SWITCHING TO EASTERLY BY SAT AM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
NORTHEAST OF BARROW...BUT REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BERING SEA
WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TODAY AND POSSIBLY
THE YUKON DELTA TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE REMAINING COASTAL AREAS LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...INTO THE
LOWER KOBUK VALLEY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND YUKON
DELTA ON SUN.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...RAIN FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE...FORT
YUKON AND EIELSON EASTWARD TO NEAR EAGLE TO PAXSON TODAY. HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM THE RICHARDSON
HIGHWAY WEST TODAY. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE TODAY....WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADA BORDER OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE DRYING OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR...THE COOL AIRMASS UNDER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP
HUMIDITIES HIGH. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...EAST OF THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...AND
MORE EXPECTED TODAY...WILL CAUSE STREAMS THERE TO RUN HIGH INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SO THIS BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 251310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
510 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO ANCHORAGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT WHILE A LOW IN THE TROUGH ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FAIRBANKS ALSO PERSISTS. RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATE. THE SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SUN.

SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH COVERING THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING
SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND EXPAND TO A 1025 MB CENTER NORTH OF BARROW
SAT AM WHICH THEN DRIFTS NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT FROM INUVIK CANADA
TO FORT YUKON TO EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE TO DENALI PARK WILL MOVE
TO EAGLE TO GULKANA THROUGH 4AM SAT...AND TO DAWSON TO NORHTWAY
THROUGH 4AM SUN. WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE EAST TO EXTEND FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO
BETHEL AT 4PM SAT...WITH A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT 4AM SUN.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH SAT THEN SOME DIFFERENCES
ALOFT BY SUNDAY ON HOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN THE MEDIUM
TERM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FAVOR THE TROUGH SPLITTING AND MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTH WITH A RESULTANT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
PRODUCES EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THE GFS
HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DRIFTS IT EAST TO NEAR
TO CANADA.

NORTH SLOPE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THOUGH EXPECT ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FEET...AND REMAINING RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH SOME MINOR
AMOUNTS CONTINUING SAT EAST OF THE SAG RIVER. COASTAL WINDS
SWITCHING TO EASTERLY BY SAT AM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
NORTHEAST OF BARROW...BUT REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BERING SEA
WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TODAY AND POSSIBLY
THE YUKON DELTA TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE REMAINING COASTAL AREAS LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...INTO THE
LOWER KOBUK VALLEY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND YUKON
DELTA ON SUN.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...RAIN FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE...FORT
YUKON AND EIELSON EASTWARD TO NEAR EAGLE TO PAXSON TODAY. HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM THE RICHARDSON
HIGHWAY WEST TODAY. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE TODAY....WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADA BORDER OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE DRYING OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR...THE COOL AIRMASS UNDER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP
HUMIDITIES HIGH. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...EAST OF THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...AND
MORE EXPECTED TODAY...WILL CAUSE STREAMS THERE TO RUN HIGH INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SO THIS BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 251248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
448 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER THE NE GULF WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY E AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT THE BASE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING STEADIER PRECIP TO THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER...WEAKER
WAVE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING. THIS QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT BACK W AS THE FIRST WAVE
EXITS...THEN SLIDE SLIGHTLY E AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...THEN BACK TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STRATIFORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST. 00Z MODELS CAME IN WITH MORE PRECIP
TONIGHT AS THE SECOND WAVE TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
.5-.75 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ALONG SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND.

 THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTHERLIES OCCURRED IN NORTHERN
LYNN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL EASE THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHANNELS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND SFC
RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE OUTER COAST S OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND ACROSS SUMNER AND
CLARENCE STRAITS THIS MORNING.

 .LONG TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN EXTENDING FROM KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE AK GULF IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH
THE GULF LOW LOCKED BETWEEN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE
IS THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT BREAKS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE WAVES/VORT MAXES MOVE IN AND OUT, BUT THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. KEPT
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH EMPLOYED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS WITH NEW
MODEL RUNS WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

 FOR INSIDE CHANNEL WINDS KEPT WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING
THE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW INSTEAD OF THE WEAK NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHIFTS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS. WITH THE RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE SMALL
WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. TOWARDS MID WEEK MAY SEE WARMER DAY TIME HIGHS AS A BREAK IN
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS A
WARM BIAS FOR DAY TIME TEMPS, ESPECIALLY THE MOST RECENT GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LARGE SCALE FEATURES
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.


$$

BC/PRB






000
FXAK67 PAJK 251248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
448 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER THE NE GULF WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY E AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT THE BASE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING STEADIER PRECIP TO THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER...WEAKER
WAVE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING. THIS QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT BACK W AS THE FIRST WAVE
EXITS...THEN SLIDE SLIGHTLY E AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...THEN BACK TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STRATIFORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST. 00Z MODELS CAME IN WITH MORE PRECIP
TONIGHT AS THE SECOND WAVE TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
.5-.75 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ALONG SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND.

 THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTHERLIES OCCURRED IN NORTHERN
LYNN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL EASE THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHANNELS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND SFC
RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE OUTER COAST S OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND ACROSS SUMNER AND
CLARENCE STRAITS THIS MORNING.

 .LONG TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN EXTENDING FROM KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE AK GULF IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH
THE GULF LOW LOCKED BETWEEN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE
IS THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT BREAKS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE WAVES/VORT MAXES MOVE IN AND OUT, BUT THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. KEPT
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH EMPLOYED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS WITH NEW
MODEL RUNS WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

 FOR INSIDE CHANNEL WINDS KEPT WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING
THE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW INSTEAD OF THE WEAK NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHIFTS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS. WITH THE RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE SMALL
WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. TOWARDS MID WEEK MAY SEE WARMER DAY TIME HIGHS AS A BREAK IN
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS A
WARM BIAS FOR DAY TIME TEMPS, ESPECIALLY THE MOST RECENT GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LARGE SCALE FEATURES
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.


$$

BC/PRB






000
FXAK67 PAJK 251248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
448 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER THE NE GULF WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY E AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT THE BASE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING STEADIER PRECIP TO THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER...WEAKER
WAVE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING. THIS QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT BACK W AS THE FIRST WAVE
EXITS...THEN SLIDE SLIGHTLY E AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...THEN BACK TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STRATIFORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST. 00Z MODELS CAME IN WITH MORE PRECIP
TONIGHT AS THE SECOND WAVE TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
.5-.75 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ALONG SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND.

 THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTHERLIES OCCURRED IN NORTHERN
LYNN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL EASE THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHANNELS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND SFC
RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE OUTER COAST S OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND ACROSS SUMNER AND
CLARENCE STRAITS THIS MORNING.

 .LONG TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN EXTENDING FROM KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE AK GULF IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH
THE GULF LOW LOCKED BETWEEN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE
IS THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT BREAKS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE WAVES/VORT MAXES MOVE IN AND OUT, BUT THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. KEPT
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH EMPLOYED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS WITH NEW
MODEL RUNS WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

 FOR INSIDE CHANNEL WINDS KEPT WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING
THE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW INSTEAD OF THE WEAK NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHIFTS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS. WITH THE RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE SMALL
WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. TOWARDS MID WEEK MAY SEE WARMER DAY TIME HIGHS AS A BREAK IN
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS A
WARM BIAS FOR DAY TIME TEMPS, ESPECIALLY THE MOST RECENT GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LARGE SCALE FEATURES
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.


$$

BC/PRB






000
FXAK67 PAJK 251248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
448 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER THE NE GULF WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY E AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT THE BASE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING STEADIER PRECIP TO THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER...WEAKER
WAVE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING. THIS QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT BACK W AS THE FIRST WAVE
EXITS...THEN SLIDE SLIGHTLY E AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...THEN BACK TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STRATIFORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST. 00Z MODELS CAME IN WITH MORE PRECIP
TONIGHT AS THE SECOND WAVE TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
.5-.75 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ALONG SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND.

 THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTHERLIES OCCURRED IN NORTHERN
LYNN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL EASE THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHANNELS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND SFC
RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE OUTER COAST S OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND ACROSS SUMNER AND
CLARENCE STRAITS THIS MORNING.

 .LONG TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN EXTENDING FROM KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE AK GULF IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH
THE GULF LOW LOCKED BETWEEN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE
IS THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT BREAKS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE WAVES/VORT MAXES MOVE IN AND OUT, BUT THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. KEPT
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH EMPLOYED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS WITH NEW
MODEL RUNS WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

 FOR INSIDE CHANNEL WINDS KEPT WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING
THE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW INSTEAD OF THE WEAK NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHIFTS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS. WITH THE RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE SMALL
WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. TOWARDS MID WEEK MAY SEE WARMER DAY TIME HIGHS AS A BREAK IN
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS A
WARM BIAS FOR DAY TIME TEMPS, ESPECIALLY THE MOST RECENT GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LARGE SCALE FEATURES
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.


$$

BC/PRB






000
FXAK67 PAJK 242346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SOMEWHAT AIMLESS LONGWAVE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME FRONTAL RAINS THIS
MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE IS
PRIMED FOR SOME EXCITEMENT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ENERGY BURSTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE KATMAI. THIS ENERGY WILL DEEPEN THE
TROUGH...FARTHER ENOUGH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TO TAP SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE BEND NORTHWARD
INTO THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW WEST OF HAIDA GWAII LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO FRIDAY.

FIRST PRECIPITATION...RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA HAS BEEN
SPOTTY AND SOMEWHAT INTENSE IN NATURE. I SHOULD ADD THAT THE
ECMWF`S TREATMENT FOR YAKUTAT AS WET TURNED OUT TO BE MORE CORRECT
THAN THE MUCH DRIER GFS AND NAM. THUS THE CONVECTION CALLED FOR
TODAY WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL. THIS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
ONLY TRANSITION INTO MORE STEADY RAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LYNN
CANAL BY THE AFTERNOON. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AREAS CLOSEST
TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY STAY A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE, WITH
A SOUTHERLY 850 JET SPREADING NORTHWARD, IT WAS HARD TO TURN
AGAINST THE CONCEPTUAL PARADIGM OF PRE-FRONTAL STRATIFORM...SO
JUST PAINTED EVERYTHING AS RAIN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF
YAKUTAT.

WINDS...NO BIG WORRIES EXCEPT FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLIES
RISING IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFTS FOR SOUTHERN
PASSAGES LOOKED GOOD. DID CONTINUE THE TREND OF BOOSTING WINDS FOR
BLOWHOLES LIKE HYDABURG AND ADDED SOME GUSTY LANGUAGE FOR SOUTHERN
BARANOF. PARTNER ON OUR DESK TODAY NOTICED THE WRF HAD CORRECTLY PREDICTED
THE GUSTINESS IN SITKA TODAY. WRF...WE MISSED YOU DURING YOUR
ABSENCE. ALWAYS A LITTLE SKETCHY ON STRENGTH AND EVEN DIRECTION OF
WINDS WHERE SURFACE GRADIENT RUNS COUNTER TO WINDS ALOFT. KIND OF
TOOK AN AVERAGE OF STRONG SOUTHERLIES AND WEAK NORTHERLIES TO
ARRIVE AT WEAK SOUTHERLIES FOR STEPHENS PASSAGE/NORTHERN CHATHAM.

NO BIG HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT AS IN A LOT
OF SITUATIONS THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE
OF PREDICTION WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. GFS/GEM STILL SEEM A
LITTLE HEAVIER THAN 12Z NAM AND ECMWF. COVERED BASES AND USED A
BLEND OF BOTH.

EMPLOYED NAM/ECMWF FOR PRESS/WINDS. REPLACED NAM WITH SREF AND
ADDED GEM/GFS FOR POP/QPF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WAVES OF ENERGY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
MAKE FOR A RATHER WET FORECAST. CHALLENGE WITH THESE SORT OF
SYSTEMS IS TIMING OF THE RAIN...AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN
BETWEEN. ALSO EACH MODEL PLACES THE WAVES OF ENERGY (VORT MAXES)
DIFFERENTLY WHICH RESULTS IN LARGER DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE.

OPTED TO USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WHICH MADE FOR
ONLY MINOR CHANGES. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO FLIP MANY OF THE
INSIDE WATERS DIRECTIONS TO SOUTHERLY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION...FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AROUND THE GULF LOW WILL BE
S-SELY OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN MANY
CASES WOULD SUGGEST A LIGHT NORTH WIND WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD
SUPPORT SOUTHERLY. OPTED TO GO FOR THE GEOSTROPHIC SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME TIME FRAMES WHERE THE NORTH WINDS
WILL WIN OUT...IE LIKE WHEN THE LOW CENTER IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OR WHEN THERE IS A LIGHT DIURNAL SHIFT TO NORTH IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CONTINUED WITH THE SMALLER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE UNDER THE
CLOUDY/RAINY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EACH
DAY...BUT THERE TENDS TO BE A WARM BIAS WITH THE MOS IN THESE
CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON WET IS ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT
LOWER ON TIMING OF EACH BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN/OUT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-035-036-041-042.


$$

JWA/FERRIN







000
FXAK67 PAJK 242346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SOMEWHAT AIMLESS LONGWAVE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME FRONTAL RAINS THIS
MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE IS
PRIMED FOR SOME EXCITEMENT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ENERGY BURSTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE KATMAI. THIS ENERGY WILL DEEPEN THE
TROUGH...FARTHER ENOUGH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TO TAP SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE BEND NORTHWARD
INTO THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW WEST OF HAIDA GWAII LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO FRIDAY.

FIRST PRECIPITATION...RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA HAS BEEN
SPOTTY AND SOMEWHAT INTENSE IN NATURE. I SHOULD ADD THAT THE
ECMWF`S TREATMENT FOR YAKUTAT AS WET TURNED OUT TO BE MORE CORRECT
THAN THE MUCH DRIER GFS AND NAM. THUS THE CONVECTION CALLED FOR
TODAY WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL. THIS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
ONLY TRANSITION INTO MORE STEADY RAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LYNN
CANAL BY THE AFTERNOON. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AREAS CLOSEST
TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY STAY A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE, WITH
A SOUTHERLY 850 JET SPREADING NORTHWARD, IT WAS HARD TO TURN
AGAINST THE CONCEPTUAL PARADIGM OF PRE-FRONTAL STRATIFORM...SO
JUST PAINTED EVERYTHING AS RAIN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF
YAKUTAT.

WINDS...NO BIG WORRIES EXCEPT FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLIES
RISING IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFTS FOR SOUTHERN
PASSAGES LOOKED GOOD. DID CONTINUE THE TREND OF BOOSTING WINDS FOR
BLOWHOLES LIKE HYDABURG AND ADDED SOME GUSTY LANGUAGE FOR SOUTHERN
BARANOF. PARTNER ON OUR DESK TODAY NOTICED THE WRF HAD CORRECTLY PREDICTED
THE GUSTINESS IN SITKA TODAY. WRF...WE MISSED YOU DURING YOUR
ABSENCE. ALWAYS A LITTLE SKETCHY ON STRENGTH AND EVEN DIRECTION OF
WINDS WHERE SURFACE GRADIENT RUNS COUNTER TO WINDS ALOFT. KIND OF
TOOK AN AVERAGE OF STRONG SOUTHERLIES AND WEAK NORTHERLIES TO
ARRIVE AT WEAK SOUTHERLIES FOR STEPHENS PASSAGE/NORTHERN CHATHAM.

NO BIG HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT AS IN A LOT
OF SITUATIONS THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE
OF PREDICTION WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. GFS/GEM STILL SEEM A
LITTLE HEAVIER THAN 12Z NAM AND ECMWF. COVERED BASES AND USED A
BLEND OF BOTH.

EMPLOYED NAM/ECMWF FOR PRESS/WINDS. REPLACED NAM WITH SREF AND
ADDED GEM/GFS FOR POP/QPF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WAVES OF ENERGY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
MAKE FOR A RATHER WET FORECAST. CHALLENGE WITH THESE SORT OF
SYSTEMS IS TIMING OF THE RAIN...AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN
BETWEEN. ALSO EACH MODEL PLACES THE WAVES OF ENERGY (VORT MAXES)
DIFFERENTLY WHICH RESULTS IN LARGER DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE.

OPTED TO USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WHICH MADE FOR
ONLY MINOR CHANGES. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO FLIP MANY OF THE
INSIDE WATERS DIRECTIONS TO SOUTHERLY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION...FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AROUND THE GULF LOW WILL BE
S-SELY OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN MANY
CASES WOULD SUGGEST A LIGHT NORTH WIND WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD
SUPPORT SOUTHERLY. OPTED TO GO FOR THE GEOSTROPHIC SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME TIME FRAMES WHERE THE NORTH WINDS
WILL WIN OUT...IE LIKE WHEN THE LOW CENTER IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OR WHEN THERE IS A LIGHT DIURNAL SHIFT TO NORTH IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CONTINUED WITH THE SMALLER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE UNDER THE
CLOUDY/RAINY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EACH
DAY...BUT THERE TENDS TO BE A WARM BIAS WITH THE MOS IN THESE
CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON WET IS ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT
LOWER ON TIMING OF EACH BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN/OUT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-035-036-041-042.


$$

JWA/FERRIN








000
FXAK69 PAFG 242248
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS HAD
BEEN THE LONE HOLDOUT BUT WITH THE LAST MODEL RUN IT HAS SEEN THE
ERROR IN ITS WAYS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS
ESSENTIALLY A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW GETS TRAPPED
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY IF NOT INTO SAT.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ARE
GUSTING 25 TO 35 THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST ARE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY THROUGH
THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA.

SNOWFALL OF A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION MOVING IN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND HIT THE WEST COAST
BEAR POINT HOPE AND TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD SUN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 242248
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS HAD
BEEN THE LONE HOLDOUT BUT WITH THE LAST MODEL RUN IT HAS SEEN THE
ERROR IN ITS WAYS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS
ESSENTIALLY A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW GETS TRAPPED
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY IF NOT INTO SAT.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ARE
GUSTING 25 TO 35 THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST ARE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY THROUGH
THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA.

SNOWFALL OF A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION MOVING IN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND HIT THE WEST COAST
BEAR POINT HOPE AND TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD SUN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 242138
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE...IS SITUATED NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. A LARGE AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THEY HANDLE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN ALASKA TROUGH INTO THE GULF
LOW...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSPIRE SOME
CONFIDENCE (NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL) IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BASICALLY THE SAME THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE BERING RIDGE AND MAINLAND/GULF TROUGH/LOW. THE
MAIN CHANGE THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IS THAT AFTER THE FIRST
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS FROM THE TROUGH INTO THE GULF LOW...THE FLOW
SPLIT WILL WIDEN AND LEAVE SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER A WEAK RIDGE
AND/OR "COL".

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...A WET DAY IS IN STORE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY FOR THE COOK INLET THROUGH THE MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEY
AREA. THIS IS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAINLAND TROUGH...WHICH
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND "PINCH OFF" AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTH...JOINING THE GULF LOW LATE SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. SOME PRECIPITATION
IS ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER EAST (COPPER RIVER/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND)
BUT OF LOWER QUANTITIES THAN FURTHER WEST WHERE MORE OF THE
DYNAMICS ARE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING NUDGES IN FROM THE BERING HIGH. SOME
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...AREAS FURTHER FROM THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE
GULF LOW.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE BERING RIDGE NUDGES
EASTWARD.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT A WEAK FRONT COULD SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA...AND A
LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SUPPORTING
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. EVENTUALLY...THE LARGE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH INCREASING
THREATS FOR EASTERLY WAVES TO ROTATE INTO THE MAINLAND...KEEPING
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE
MAINLAND...WITH DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS HEAVILY MODULATED BY THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL EASTERLY WAVES. ACROSS THE BERING...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS...WITH RAIN THREATS LARGELY REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 242138
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE...IS SITUATED NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. A LARGE AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THEY HANDLE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN ALASKA TROUGH INTO THE GULF
LOW...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSPIRE SOME
CONFIDENCE (NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL) IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BASICALLY THE SAME THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE BERING RIDGE AND MAINLAND/GULF TROUGH/LOW. THE
MAIN CHANGE THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IS THAT AFTER THE FIRST
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS FROM THE TROUGH INTO THE GULF LOW...THE FLOW
SPLIT WILL WIDEN AND LEAVE SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER A WEAK RIDGE
AND/OR "COL".

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...A WET DAY IS IN STORE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY FOR THE COOK INLET THROUGH THE MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEY
AREA. THIS IS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAINLAND TROUGH...WHICH
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND "PINCH OFF" AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTH...JOINING THE GULF LOW LATE SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. SOME PRECIPITATION
IS ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER EAST (COPPER RIVER/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND)
BUT OF LOWER QUANTITIES THAN FURTHER WEST WHERE MORE OF THE
DYNAMICS ARE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING NUDGES IN FROM THE BERING HIGH. SOME
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...AREAS FURTHER FROM THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE
GULF LOW.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE BERING RIDGE NUDGES
EASTWARD.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT A WEAK FRONT COULD SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA...AND A
LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SUPPORTING
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. EVENTUALLY...THE LARGE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH INCREASING
THREATS FOR EASTERLY WAVES TO ROTATE INTO THE MAINLAND...KEEPING
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE
MAINLAND...WITH DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS HEAVILY MODULATED BY THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL EASTERLY WAVES. ACROSS THE BERING...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS...WITH RAIN THREATS LARGELY REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

LUDWIG/JA JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 241350
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
550 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM BARROW TO CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO
PRUDHOE BAY TO CORDOVA 4PM SAT WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN ALASKA AND FAR
EAST RUSSIA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME AND HELP
FORM THE CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO 50
MILES NORTH OF UNALAKLEET TO THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT...MOVING
TO INUVIK CANADA TO EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO TALKEETNA TO ANVIK
TO NOME 10 AM FRI...THEN THE PORTION OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
DRIFT EAST TO LIE FROM DENALI PARK TO CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH 4PM
SAT.

MODELS...NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALOFT ARE FAVORED OVER GFS IN THAT
THEY DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS SAT AFTERNOON. IN
MEDIUM TERM THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE EXPANDING THE
BERING SEA RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT WHICH WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MIX
WITH OR TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE TODAY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL BRING PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FRI AND TO NOME FRI
NIGHT AND NORTON SOUND SAT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. UP TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CHENA BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH HEATING ALLOWS DESTABILIZATION AT LOW LEVELS.
ANOTHER AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE SOME UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...THE AREA
OF PERSISTENT RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF FORT YUKON AND FAIRBANKS
WHERE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY
AND DELTA AREA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE
FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO DENALI PARK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO DROP TO
3000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WET AND COOL PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL RISE INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN...FOR NOW NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SMALL STREAMS IN THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE WILL ESPECIALLY RUN HIGH. THE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE DID NOT ACCUMULATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THE EXTENT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER...SO STREAMS THERE WILL ONLY RISE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 241350
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
550 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM BARROW TO CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO
PRUDHOE BAY TO CORDOVA 4PM SAT WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN ALASKA AND FAR
EAST RUSSIA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME AND HELP
FORM THE CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO 50
MILES NORTH OF UNALAKLEET TO THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT...MOVING
TO INUVIK CANADA TO EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO TALKEETNA TO ANVIK
TO NOME 10 AM FRI...THEN THE PORTION OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
DRIFT EAST TO LIE FROM DENALI PARK TO CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH 4PM
SAT.

MODELS...NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALOFT ARE FAVORED OVER GFS IN THAT
THEY DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS SAT AFTERNOON. IN
MEDIUM TERM THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE EXPANDING THE
BERING SEA RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT WHICH WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MIX
WITH OR TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE TODAY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL BRING PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FRI AND TO NOME FRI
NIGHT AND NORTON SOUND SAT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. UP TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CHENA BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH HEATING ALLOWS DESTABILIZATION AT LOW LEVELS.
ANOTHER AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE SOME UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...THE AREA
OF PERSISTENT RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF FORT YUKON AND FAIRBANKS
WHERE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY
AND DELTA AREA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE
FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO DENALI PARK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO DROP TO
3000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WET AND COOL PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL RISE INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN...FOR NOW NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SMALL STREAMS IN THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE WILL ESPECIALLY RUN HIGH. THE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE DID NOT ACCUMULATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THE EXTENT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER...SO STREAMS THERE WILL ONLY RISE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 241350
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
550 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM BARROW TO CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO
PRUDHOE BAY TO CORDOVA 4PM SAT WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN ALASKA AND FAR
EAST RUSSIA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME AND HELP
FORM THE CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO 50
MILES NORTH OF UNALAKLEET TO THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT...MOVING
TO INUVIK CANADA TO EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO TALKEETNA TO ANVIK
TO NOME 10 AM FRI...THEN THE PORTION OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
DRIFT EAST TO LIE FROM DENALI PARK TO CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH 4PM
SAT.

MODELS...NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALOFT ARE FAVORED OVER GFS IN THAT
THEY DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS SAT AFTERNOON. IN
MEDIUM TERM THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE EXPANDING THE
BERING SEA RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT WHICH WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MIX
WITH OR TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE TODAY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL BRING PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FRI AND TO NOME FRI
NIGHT AND NORTON SOUND SAT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. UP TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CHENA BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH HEATING ALLOWS DESTABILIZATION AT LOW LEVELS.
ANOTHER AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE SOME UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...THE AREA
OF PERSISTENT RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF FORT YUKON AND FAIRBANKS
WHERE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY
AND DELTA AREA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE
FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO DENALI PARK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO DROP TO
3000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WET AND COOL PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL RISE INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN...FOR NOW NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SMALL STREAMS IN THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE WILL ESPECIALLY RUN HIGH. THE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE DID NOT ACCUMULATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THE EXTENT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER...SO STREAMS THERE WILL ONLY RISE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 241350
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
550 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM BARROW TO CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO
PRUDHOE BAY TO CORDOVA 4PM SAT WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN ALASKA AND FAR
EAST RUSSIA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME AND HELP
FORM THE CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO 50
MILES NORTH OF UNALAKLEET TO THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT...MOVING
TO INUVIK CANADA TO EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO TALKEETNA TO ANVIK
TO NOME 10 AM FRI...THEN THE PORTION OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
DRIFT EAST TO LIE FROM DENALI PARK TO CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH 4PM
SAT.

MODELS...NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALOFT ARE FAVORED OVER GFS IN THAT
THEY DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS SAT AFTERNOON. IN
MEDIUM TERM THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE EXPANDING THE
BERING SEA RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT WHICH WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MIX
WITH OR TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE TODAY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL BRING PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FRI AND TO NOME FRI
NIGHT AND NORTON SOUND SAT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. UP TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CHENA BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH HEATING ALLOWS DESTABILIZATION AT LOW LEVELS.
ANOTHER AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE SOME UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...THE AREA
OF PERSISTENT RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF FORT YUKON AND FAIRBANKS
WHERE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY
AND DELTA AREA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE
FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO DENALI PARK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO DROP TO
3000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WET AND COOL PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL RISE INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN...FOR NOW NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SMALL STREAMS IN THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE WILL ESPECIALLY RUN HIGH. THE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE DID NOT ACCUMULATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THE EXTENT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER...SO STREAMS THERE WILL ONLY RISE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 241312
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND AK THIS
MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH IS ENTERING WESTERN
AK ON ITS WAY TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. A STRONG RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE AKPEN SOUTH OF KING SALMON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST
UNTIL ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 145 W WHERE IT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS TODAY`S WAVE TO REACH THE
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON....THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES BY THIS EVENING...SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT...AND FINALLY REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT NIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN HIGH WILL MIGRATE
UNTIL IT COVERS MOST OF THE BERING ON FRI. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK AND REACH WESTERN AK FRI...ARRIVING OVER
SOUTHWEST AK FRI NIGHT AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES ON
SAT. SEVERAL MORE WAVES WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS...WHOSE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE
ENHANCED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE. THIS WILL REACH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FRI NIGHT.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE SAT INTO SUN AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND REACHING THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN ON MON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE BERING
HIGH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH BRIEF
INTERVENING BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
BERING LOW...THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY WITH ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BERING WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH MON. A LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND BEGINNING TUE. WEAK EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE GULF LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 241312
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND AK THIS
MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH IS ENTERING WESTERN
AK ON ITS WAY TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. A STRONG RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE AKPEN SOUTH OF KING SALMON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST
UNTIL ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 145 W WHERE IT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS TODAY`S WAVE TO REACH THE
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON....THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES BY THIS EVENING...SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT...AND FINALLY REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT NIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN HIGH WILL MIGRATE
UNTIL IT COVERS MOST OF THE BERING ON FRI. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK AND REACH WESTERN AK FRI...ARRIVING OVER
SOUTHWEST AK FRI NIGHT AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES ON
SAT. SEVERAL MORE WAVES WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS...WHOSE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE
ENHANCED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE. THIS WILL REACH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FRI NIGHT.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE SAT INTO SUN AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND REACHING THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN ON MON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE BERING
HIGH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH BRIEF
INTERVENING BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
BERING LOW...THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY WITH ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BERING WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH MON. A LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND BEGINNING TUE. WEAK EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE GULF LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 241312
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND AK THIS
MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH IS ENTERING WESTERN
AK ON ITS WAY TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. A STRONG RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE AKPEN SOUTH OF KING SALMON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST
UNTIL ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 145 W WHERE IT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS TODAY`S WAVE TO REACH THE
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON....THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES BY THIS EVENING...SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT...AND FINALLY REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT NIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN HIGH WILL MIGRATE
UNTIL IT COVERS MOST OF THE BERING ON FRI. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK AND REACH WESTERN AK FRI...ARRIVING OVER
SOUTHWEST AK FRI NIGHT AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES ON
SAT. SEVERAL MORE WAVES WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS...WHOSE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE
ENHANCED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE. THIS WILL REACH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FRI NIGHT.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE SAT INTO SUN AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND REACHING THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN ON MON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE BERING
HIGH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH BRIEF
INTERVENING BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
BERING LOW...THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY WITH ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BERING WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH MON. A LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND BEGINNING TUE. WEAK EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE GULF LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS JUL 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 241312
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND AK THIS
MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH IS ENTERING WESTERN
AK ON ITS WAY TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. A STRONG RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE AKPEN SOUTH OF KING SALMON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST
UNTIL ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 145 W WHERE IT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS TODAY`S WAVE TO REACH THE
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON....THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES BY THIS EVENING...SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT...AND FINALLY REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT NIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN HIGH WILL MIGRATE
UNTIL IT COVERS MOST OF THE BERING ON FRI. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK AND REACH WESTERN AK FRI...ARRIVING OVER
SOUTHWEST AK FRI NIGHT AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES ON
SAT. SEVERAL MORE WAVES WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS...WHOSE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE
ENHANCED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE. THIS WILL REACH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FRI NIGHT.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE SAT INTO SUN AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND REACHING THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN ON MON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE BERING
HIGH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH BRIEF
INTERVENING BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
BERING LOW...THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY WITH ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BERING WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH MON. A LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND BEGINNING TUE. WEAK EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE GULF LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS JUL 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 241259
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
459 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOWS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN YUKON WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEING
PINCHED OVER THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTING E AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INLAND NEAR HAIDA GWAII.

 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD E THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TRANSITIONING TO
STRATIFORM PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST AND INNER CHANNELS
AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LOW.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BLOCKY PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE GULF INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. USED A 00Z ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR FRI-SAT...THEN BLENDED
THE ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT NIGHT...WILL HAVE FRONT STALLED OVER THE ERN GULF
WITH A COUPLE OF LOWS MOVING N ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE AREA WET DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND SCA LEVELS
OVER THE FAR ERN GULF DURING THIS TIME. THE WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE RANGES ON THE SMALL SIDE...AND DID TIGHTEN UP THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR FRI-SAT. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50S DURING THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINING TIME FRAME...STILL LOOKS WET FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE GULF.
MODELS HINT AT A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE TROF LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THAT
TIME RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.


$$

BC/RWT







000
FXAK67 PAJK 241259
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
459 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOWS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN YUKON WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEING
PINCHED OVER THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTING E AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INLAND NEAR HAIDA GWAII.

 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD E THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TRANSITIONING TO
STRATIFORM PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST AND INNER CHANNELS
AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LOW.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BLOCKY PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE GULF INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. USED A 00Z ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR FRI-SAT...THEN BLENDED
THE ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT NIGHT...WILL HAVE FRONT STALLED OVER THE ERN GULF
WITH A COUPLE OF LOWS MOVING N ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE AREA WET DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND SCA LEVELS
OVER THE FAR ERN GULF DURING THIS TIME. THE WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE RANGES ON THE SMALL SIDE...AND DID TIGHTEN UP THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR FRI-SAT. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50S DURING THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINING TIME FRAME...STILL LOOKS WET FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE GULF.
MODELS HINT AT A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE TROF LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THAT
TIME RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.


$$

BC/RWT








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