000
FXAK69 PAFG 252132 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 PM AKDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY WEEK ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OUT OF CANADA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH STRENGTH AND
TIMING ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR MONDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH LIFTED INDEX AROUND MINUS 2 HOWEVER BEST CAPE WITH
VALUES AROUND 500 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
ODD MODEL WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN INTERIOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2 AND CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT NEAR 400 NEAR GALENA.

FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ON SEVERAL FRONTS.
THE WARM AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR IS
CAUSING RAPID MELT OFF OF A STILL SIZABLE SNOW PACK ABOVE 2500 FT
INTO SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ARE NOTED ON THE CHATANIKA...UPPER CHENA...THE LITTLE CHENA AND
THE SALCHA RIVERS. FLOOD WARNING ISSUED THIS MORNING ON REPORTS OF
LARGE AND QUICK WATER RISES AS WELL AS REPORTS OF LARGE CHUNKS OF
ICE MOVING DOWN THE SALCHA RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION
CLOSELY WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY ON AND NEAR AREA RIVERS OVER
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE ICE BREAKUP FRONT ON THE RIVER YUKON HAS MOVED APPROXIMATELY 50
MILES DOWN RIVER FROM TANANA WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE ICE JAM JUST DOWN RIVER FROM THE MCGRATH AIRPORT
RELEASED THIS MORNING WITH WATER LEVELS FALLING AT MCGRATH. FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR MCGRATH AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL BE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH
RED FLAG WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ZONE 220 223 AND 224.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS ABOVE 7 KFT. RAPID MELT OFF OF SNOW PACK ABOVE 2500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WATER LEVELS HIGH ON INTERIOR RIVERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ224.
FLOOD WARNING FOR AK222-AK223-AK224.

&&

$$

CCC MAY 13

000
FXAK69 PAFG 252130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
WEST OUT OF CANADA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR MONDAY. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH LIFTED
INDEX AROUND MINUS 2 HOWEVER BEST CAPE WITH VALUES AROUND 500
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2 AND CAPE VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 400 NEAR
GALENA.

FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ON SEVERAL FRONTS.
THE WARM AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR IS
CAUSING RAPID MELT OFF OF A STILL SIZABLE SNOW PACK ABOVE 2500 FT
INTO SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ARE NOTED ON THE CHATANIKA...UPPER CHENA...THE LITTLE CHENA AND
THE SALCHA RIVERS. FLOOD WARNING ISSUED THIS MORNING ON REPORTS OF
LARGE AND QUICK WATER RISES AS WELL AS REPORTS OF LARGE CHUNKS OF
ICE MOVING DOWN THE SALCHA RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION
CLOSELY WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY ON AND NEAR AREA RIVERS OVER
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE ICE BREAKUP FRONT ON THE RIVER YUKON HAS MOVED APPROXIMATELY 50
MILES DOWN RIVER FROM TANANA WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE ICE JAM JUST DOWN RIVER FROM THE MCGRATH AIRPORT
RELEASED THIS MORNING WITH WATER LEVELS FALLING AT MCGRATH. FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR MCGRATH AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL BE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH
RED FLAG WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ZONE 220 223 AND 224.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS ABOVE 7 KFT. RAPID MELT OFF OF SNOW PACK ABOVE 2500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WATER LEVELS HIGH ON INTERIOR RIVERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ224.
FLOOD WARNING FOR AK222-AK223-AK224.

&&

$$

CCC MAY 13

000
FXAK67 PAJK 251424
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
624 AM AKDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MANY OF THE ZONES NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE. OTHERWISE THE
STABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING DIURNAL CYCLES OF SEA STRATUS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT. SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERLY
FLOW FEATURES HAVE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

A 500H LOW OVER THE SEATTLE VICINITY, AS WELL AS A SECOND LOW OVER
ALBERTA, ARE SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW THAT INCLUDES E FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF B.C. THE GOES IR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL- SCALE
VORTICITY FEATURES MOVING FROM OVER CENTRAL B.C. AND OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

A 500H RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM OVER GREAT SLAVE LAKE AND OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WE SOMETIMES CALL A RIDGE ALOFT "DIRTY" IF
SHORT WAVES ARE ABLE TO TRAVEL THROUGH IT, EVEN IF THESE WAVES ARE
WEAKENING. IN THE PRESENT CASE, WE HAVE A DIRTY RIDGE THAT IS
WEAKENING THE SHORT WAVES ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION, BUT THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PREVAIL ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT
TO IDENTIFY S OF SUMNER STRAIT.

THE MODELS POINT TO A SMALL LOW ALOFT ABOUT 300 NM S OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND, AND THE GOES IR SHOWS A LIMITED AREA OF CLOUD MASS
CONSISTENT TO THIS COLD CORE LOW ALOFT. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT N BUT
HAS ALMOST NO ASSOCIATED FEATURES LOWER THAN THE 700H.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS N FROM THE N PACIFIC
ALONG TO THE VICINITY OF ICY CAPE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TILT IN
RESPONSE TO A 995 MB LOW ABOUT 400 NM S OF KODIAK, AND BY 12Z SUN
THE RESULT WILL BE THE RIDGE EXTENDING NW ALONG A LINE FROM
KETCHIKAN TO SITKA AND NW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

THE GOES IR ALSO SHOWS THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED
SYSTEM WITH A TRIPLE POINT ABOUT 500 NM S OF KODIAK. THE NAM IS
ACCEPTED WITH A SOLUTION OF 25 KT WINDS IN THE SW SECTION OF THE
OFFSHORE ZONE (PKZ310) BY 12Z SUN. THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THIS
PARAGRAPH IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FOR ANY OTHER ZONE IN OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY THROUGH 12Z SUN. PLEASE NOTE THE LONG RANGE SECTION
FOR FEATURES MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SW.

MODELS: THE CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ESE FLOW ACROSS THE COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
INDICATED FOR THE FLOW MOVING PAST THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE COAST
MOUNTAIN RANGE ON THE TWO MODELS THAT HAD BEST INITIALIZATION: THE
NAM AND THE ECMWF.


 .LONG TERM...UPPER HIGH OVER NW CANADA WILL DRIFT WWD INTO SE
INTERIOR AK BY TUE. ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE
NE PAC THEN STALL OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE NE PAC BY TUE
NIGHT. A GENERAL ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SE AK THRU MIDWEEK.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH DETAILS ON SHORTWAVES MOVING WWD THRU
THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CONCERNING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA
PROVINCE. LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT NW THRU SUN NIGHT
THEN DRIFT WWD ACROSS NRN BC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD THRU THE AREA...LIKELY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ENDED UP USING A GFS/NAM BLEND MAINLY
FOR THE WAY THEY HANDLED THE WINDS OVER THE GULF FOR SUN- MON
PERIOD.

FOR SUN INTO MON...SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL DRIFT NW
ACROSS THE NRN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE ESE
AND LIKELY CAUSE SOME RAIN OVER THE NE GULF AREA SUN MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO MOVE OUT SUN AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. THE
OTHER AREA THAT MIGHT GET SOME PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
FAR SE...WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE E.
THIS PRECIP LOOKS MORE SHOWERY...AND BY MON AFTERNOON...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE HYDER AREA. DID NOT PUT
TSTMS IN YET DUE TO MODEL TIMING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND
POSITION OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CHANGING
WITH EACH MODEL RUN. GFS DID SHOW NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDEX
VALUES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE E TO
SURVIVE LONGER EVEN IF LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ON THE COOL
SIDE.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...LOOKS LIKE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE E DURING THIS TIME. BROUGHT IN MORE
CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE E. ALSO WENT FOR A LARGER AREA
OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES. BLENDED IN WPC POPS WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DO THIS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD THRU THE ERN GULF. KEPT IN CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO FRI. ALL IN
ALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN WE ARE IN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JBT/RWT

000
FXAK68 PAFC 251303
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING THIS MORNING WITH AN
EMBEDDED LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER CLOSED OFF LOW IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AK. SHARP UPPER RIDGES ARE CENTERED OVER
KAMCHATKA AND THE ALCAN. THE JET IS FOLLOWING A NEAR ZONAL GREAT
CIRCLE ROUTE WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING....AND MOST OF MAINLAND
AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
OVER DUTCH HARBOR AND THEN RETROGRADE PAST THE PRIBILOFS WHERE IT
WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...WHEN THE LOW IS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR...IT WILL SPIN OFF AN
INITIAL TRIPLE POINT LOW THIS EVENING THAT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
AND MOVES DIRECTLY EAST. THIS WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO THE MAIN
TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE TRIPLE POINT AND BRING
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY TO THE NORTH GULF COAST...AND AREAS JUST
ACROSS THE CHUGACH RANGE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ALASKA RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD...SO SOME CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP THERE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MON INTO TUE. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS AND GEM IN
THE SHORT TERM AND TRANSITIONS TO WPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS THE PARENT LOW RETROGRADES PAST THE
PRIBILOFS...RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING RAIN WILL AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SUN. THE REMNANTS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL
THEN BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SUN INTO MON WHEN
THE EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS RAIN TO THE COAST. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CROSS THE CHUGACH AND KENAI RANGES INTO SUN NIGHT. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE WEST WILL BE DRY..BUT SW AK WILL HAVE SHOWERS BY MID WEEK AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THESE WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 155
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG 141 WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING

DS MAY 13

000
FXAK69 PAFG 251203 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
403 AM AKDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS
BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SAT AS DOES
THE NAM AND THE ECMWF BUT THE GFS CONTINUES IT AND GIVES IT MORE
PLAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS RUN DOES WEAKEN IT SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
AND EVEN DISSIPATES IT IN PLACE IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE ONLY
REAL REASON IS THAT THIS IS OF ANY IMPORTANCE IS BECAUSE OF
CONVECTIVE CONSEQUENCES. THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGAN AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL SPEED UP
BREAK UP. FLOODING FROM BREAK UP IS WORKING ITS WAY WEST AS IS
ALLUDED TO IN THE WATCH STATEMENTS.

A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS GOING TO BE HELD
AT BAY BY THE EXPANDING RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING WESTWARD. MOST OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. IT WILL SKIRT THE
Y-K DELTA AND THEN IMPACT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
ROTATE WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE
SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS TO ZONE 214 AND 215 MON AND MON NIGHT.

500H CONTINUE TO CLIMB WHILE 850H TEMPERATURES CLIMB AS WELL
BEGINNING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION
AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...BREAK UP CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS ON THE YUKON RIVER AND THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT
MCGRATH. RAPID SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE ICE JAMS WILL GIVE
RISE TO POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE NOME AND SNAKE AREA RIVERS ARE ALSO
UNDER A FLOOD ADVISORY IN THE NOME AREA.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ224.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ221-AKZ227.
&&

$$

MAY 13

000
FXAK69 PAFG 251125
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
325 AM AKDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS
BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SAT AS DOES
THE NAM AND THE ECMWF BUT THE GFS CONTINUES IT AND GIVES IT MORE
PLAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS RUN DOES WEAKEN IT SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
AND EVEN DISSIPATES IT IN PLACE IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE ONLY
REAL REASON IS THAT THIS IS OF ANY IMPORTANCE IS BECAUSE OF
CONVECTIVE CONSEQUENCES. THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGAN AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL SPEED UP
BREAK UP. FLOODING FROM BREAK UP IS WORKING ITS WAY WEST AS IS
ALLUDED TO IN THE WATCH STATEMENTS.

A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS GOING TO BE HELD
AT BAY BY THE EXPANDING RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING WESTWARD. MOST OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. IT WILL SKIRT THE
Y-K DELTA AND THEN IMPACT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
ROTATE WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE
SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS TO ZONE 214 AND 215 MON AND MON NIGHT.

500H CONTINUE TO CLIMB WHILE 850H TEMPERATURES CLIMB AS WELL
BEGINNING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION
AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...BREAK UP CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS ON THE YUKON RIVER AND THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT
MCGRATH. RAPID SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE ICE JAMS WILL GIVE
RISE TO POSSIBLE FLOODING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ224.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ221-AKZ227.
&&

$$

CF MAY 13

000
FXAK67 PAJK 242357 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER IS STILL RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. THE SUNNY WEATHER OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS GIVEN WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL DECK AND A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE
COAST MOUNTAINS AS KETCHIKAN, JUNEAU, AND STEWART, BRITISH
COLUMBIA HAVE ALL REPORTED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF A LOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT IS SENDING
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS DRYING OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CREATING A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARM AND DRY LAYER IN
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, AND IS MAKING IT
HARD FOR THE RAIN THAT DOES MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO REACH
THE SURFACE.

 THIS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW AS MORE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND TRY
TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO TOMORROW. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT SINCE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS IT IS
TOO FAR WEST FOR THE WEAK WAVES TO REACH IT.

 MEANWHILE THE OUTER COAST WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS BUT WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
LAST NIGHT SAW THE MARINE LAYER CREEP INTO YAKUTAT, CROSS SOUND,
PELICAN, SITKA, AND KLAWOCK WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OBSERVED AT
THE FORMER THREE. I EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY GETTING TO GUSTAVUS AND HYDABURG LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE THEY RETREAT AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

 WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
NOT BE AS WARM AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. MOST PLACES WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 50 TO LOW 60S TOMORROW. HOWEVER THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE HIGH OVERCAST
PREVENTS A RAPID COOLING EFFECT FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A
SECONDARY RESULT, SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EITHER.

 FIRE WEATHER. FUEL CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES MOISTENED UP OVERNIGHT THE
SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS ALREADY HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. SKAGWAY ALSO HAD A BRIEF BURST OF WIND
THIS MORNING SO FOR A SHORT TIME SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER DID
EXIST IN SKAGWAY THIS MORNING. THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE SLACKENED
OFF A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS, WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH MUCH HIGHER THAN IT ALREADY IS. SO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BUT WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND WITH CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AT THIS POINT.

 SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES ON HOW THE MODELS
HANDLED THE PRECIP ONCE IT GOT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GFS IN A
PREVIOUS RUN WAS A BIT OVERAGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY. DECIDED ON USING THE NAM WITH A BIT
OF THE ECMWF OR GFS HERE AND THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL
EXPAND ITS AREA TO BECOME A BROAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BLENDED
THE PRESSURE FIELD WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THEN USED THE NEW WPC OUTPUTS FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. USED 50/50 OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND
QPF VALUES FOR ENTIRE PERIODS.

A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE GULF AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES THE
EXPANDING LOW WILL BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW BECOMES A BROAD
AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...THE EXTENDED FORECAST GOES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE POP AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

EAL/AHN

000
FXAK67 PAJK 242340
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER IS STILL RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. THE SUNNY WEATHER OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS GIVEN WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL DECK AND A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE
COAST MOUNTAINS AS KETCHIKAN, JUNEAU, AND STEWART, BRITISH
COLUMBIA HAVE ALL REPORTED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF A LOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT IS SENDING
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS DRYING OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CREATING A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARM AND DRY LAYER IN
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, AND IS MAKING IT
HARD FOR THE RAIN THAT DOES MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO REACH
THE SURFACE.

 THIS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW AS MORE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND TRY
TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO TOMORROW. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS OR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT SINCE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS IT IS
TOO FAR WEST FOR THE WEAK WAVES TO REACH IT.

 MEANWHILE THE OUTER COAST WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS BUT WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
LAST NIGHT SAW THE MARINE LAYER CREEP INTO YAKUTAT, CROSS SOUND,
PELICAN, SITKA, AND KLAWOCK WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OBSERVED AT
THE FORMER THREE. I EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY GETTING TO GUSTAVUS AND HYDABURG LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE THEY RETREAT AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

 WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
NOT BE AS WARM AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. MOST PLACES WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 50 TO LOW 60S TOMORROW. HOWEVER THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE HIGH OVERCAST
PREVENTS A RAPID COOLING EFFECT FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A
SECONDARY RESULT, SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EITHER.

 FIRE WEATHER. FUEL CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES MOISTENED UP OVERNIGHT THE
SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS ALREADY HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. SKAGWAY ALSO HAD A BRIEF BURST OF WIND
THIS MORNING SO FOR A SHORT TIME SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER DID
EXIST IN SKAGWAY THIS MORNING. THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE SLACKENED
OFF A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS, WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH MUCH HIGHER THAN IT ALREADY IS. SO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BUT WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND WITH CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AT THIS POINT.

 SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES ON HOW THE MODELS
HANDLED THE PRECIP ONCE IT GOT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GFS IN A
PREVIOUS RUN WAS A BIT OVERAGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY. DECIDED ON USING THE NAM WITH A BIT
OF THE ECMWF OR GFS HERE AND THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL
EXPAND ITS AREA TO BECOME A BROAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BLENDED
THE PRESSURE FIELD WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THEN USED THE NEW WPC OUTPUTS FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. USED 50/50 OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND
QPF VALUES FOR ENTIRE PERIODS.

A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE GULF AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES THE
EXPANDING LOW WILL BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW BECOMES A BROAD
AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...THE EXTENDED FORECAST GOES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE POP AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

EAL/AHN

000
FXAK69 PAFG 242200
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH EAST WEST AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ON THE
SURFACE A LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ANADYR MOVES NORTHEAST. A LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 6500 FT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RUN OFF INTO
INTERIOR STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS AS DEEP AND LATE SEASON SNOW
PACK STILL EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE 2500 FT.
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
BE RUNNING AT OR NEAR BANK FULL. RVS ISSUED THIS MORNING...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR HEADLINES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PARKING OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND AND EXPANDING TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE  WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES
INTO THE MID TEENS FOR ZONES 220 223 AND 224 WHERE RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE HOISTED FOR TOMORROW. WINDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE FRONT ON THE YUKON PASSED DOWN RIVER OF RAMPART AT 230 AM
THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING DOWN RIVER TOWARD TANANA. FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON RIVER FROM RAMPART DOWN RIVER TO
TANANA. AN ICE JAM FORMED THIS MORNING ON THE KUSKOKWIM JUST DOWN
RIVER FROM THE MCGRATH AIRPORT WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT. A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SNAKE AND NOME RIVERS ON NEAR
NOME WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS WATERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE. RVS ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR ZONES 222...223...224 AND
226 WITH CONCERNS WITH SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS WATER LEVELS
INCREASING TO NEAR BANK FULL AS SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES CAUSE
MELT OFF FROM DEEP AND LATE SEASON SNOW PACK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ABOVE 2500 FT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ224.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ221-AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 13

000
FXAK68 PAFC 242127
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA
IS GAINING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO EXPAND INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ALREADY OCCURRING
AT MANY LOCATIONS. A FAIRLY WEAK 997 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WITH
WIND AND RAIN. CLOUD-COVER IS DECLINING ACROSS MOST PARTS OF THE
MAINLAND...AND IS COMBINING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES. A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS IN WHITTIER AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...BUT IS ALSO HELPING TO
PULL THE WIDESPREAD MARINE STRATUS AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
COMMUNITIES AND OUT TO SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE INTERIOR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE BERING SEA REGION AND WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE BIG STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND...AND WARMING TO NEAR-NORMAL OVER THE
ALEUTIAN DOMAIN. THE LARGEST AREA OF MODEL DISCREPANCY INVOLVES THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM KODIAK ISLAND
INTO THE GULF. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS LOW RE-CURVING NORTHWESTWARD BY
SUNDAY AND MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL...THOUGH TIMING AND POSITION
DIFFERENCES EXIST. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST WEST...WHILE
THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS A GOOD
MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION TODAY...AND WAS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS. THUS THE GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED
DURING THE FORECAST PROCESS TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF
THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GRADUALLY INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL CLOUDS FORMING
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH BRINGING AN
EASTERLY WAVE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...WILL OPT TO
LEAVE MOST OF THE AREA AT FAIRLY LOW POPS...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THE TREND IS TOWARD A CLOUDIER AND WETTER SCENARIO ON
SUNDAY EVENING FROM COOK INLET OVER TO THE COPPER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND... WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE KEEPING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SO FAR TODAY...THOUGH WITH TIME THE TREND WILL BE DEFINITELY
BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER INLAND AREAS SHOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
FORMING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER STRATIFORM CLOUDS MOVE OUT. THIS
WILL BECOME THE NORM OVER THE COMING DAYS AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALLOW INCREASING INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A COMPLEX LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND...ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO TAKE HOLD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED WARMING OVER THE MAINLAND APPEARS THAT IT WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR
STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ALASKAN DOMAIN...AND
LOCAL INFLUENCES SUCH AS SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 150 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON MAY 13

000
FXAK67 PAJK 241445
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
645 AM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING,
WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST, AND ONLY CROSS
SOUND HAS BEEN GIVEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS SHORT RANGE
SECTION CONCLUDES WITH AN ANALYSIS OF A WARMING EVENT THAT TOOK
PLACE AT SKAGWAY EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LARGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT RANGE FORECASTS ARE FOR
RAISING THE CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. NOTE THE CLOUD COVER INCREASES ARE RAISED IN THREE
WAYS: FIRST, THE GOES VI SABLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SEA STRATUS AND THE ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE.
SECOND, PATCHES OF FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT. THIRD WE HAVE RAISED AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DECK WITH CAUSES THAT ARE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

A 500H LOW OVER THE SEATTLE VICINITY HAS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW
THAT EXTENDS AS FAR AS CENTRAL B.C. THE GOES IR LOOP DEPICTS THE
UPPER LEVEL EAST FLOW REACHING SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH
CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEAKENING OF SMALLER-SCALE CYCLONIC FEATURES.
A 500H RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM OVER GREAT BEAR LAKE AND OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WE SOMETIMES CALL A RIDGE ALOFT "DIRTY" IF
SHORT WAVES ARE ABLE TO TRAVEL THROUGH IT, EVEN IF THESE WAVES ARE
WEAKENING. IN THE PRESENT CASE, WE HAVE A DIRTY RIDGE THAT IS
WEAKENING THE SHORT WAVES ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER
THE CLOUD MASS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CEILINGS.

MODELS: THE GFS MODEL RUN AT 24.00 WAS EASIER TO RECONCILE WITH
OBSERVABLE FEATURES ALOFT, AND THE MODEL HAS HAD A HIGHER POP
FIELD FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN THIS WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE RAISED POPS AS WELL AS FOR CLOUD COVER, THE GFS WAS
AN OUTLIER, AND CORRECT.

THE YAKUTAT AND ANNETTE ISLAND RAOBS AT 12Z SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS. THE YAKUTAT RAOB INVERSION INCLUDES A MEASUREMENT OF
9C AT 900H, AND IF SUCH A VALUE IS ADIABATICALLY SUBSIDED TO NEAR
SEA LEVEL, WOULD BE 18C, OR 64F. A SIMILAR SUBSIDENCE EVENT RAISED
THE TEMPERATURES AT SKAGWAY THIS MORNING. THE SKAGWAY AIRPORT AT
3 AM REPORTED A TEMPERATURE OF 50F WITH CALM WINDS. BY 4 AM THAT
AIRPORT HAD WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 7KT WITH GUSTS TO 14KT AND A
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 60F. DURING THE SAME TWO HOUR PERIOD THE
DEW POINT WENT DOWN FROM 37F TO 30F. THE NORTH WINDS AT SKAGWAY
PROVIDED THE DRY ADIABATIC PROCESS THIS MORNING.


 .LONG TERM...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A GENERALLY E-SE FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGE/HIGH REMAINING TO THE NE
OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROF TO THE SW. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN NOT
HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS AS FAR AS THE DETAILS GO. WILL PROBABLY
HAVE WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE E
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST A SHARPER
LOBE OF THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH TO THE NE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA
AT LEAST SUN-TUE...WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVES.
ALSO...WILL HAVE A SMALL UPPER LOW LOOP AROUND THE ERN GULF SAT
THRU SUN THEN PULL NW AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER COORD WITH WFO PAFC WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF.

FOR SAT...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT NW ACROSS THE AREA WITH BANDS
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE PRECIP. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE COAST MTNS WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN LOWER LEVELS AND SOME MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP.

FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT N THEN NW THRU THE
ERN GULF. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SAT SHORTWAVE AND MAY ORGANIZE PRECIP OVER THE NE GULF AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREA. KEPT IN CHANCE POPS THERE TO HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM. FURTHER INLAND AND S...POPS SHOULD LOWER AS THE SHARPER
LOBE OF THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS. HAVE KEPT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THOUGH DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A STRATOCU LAYER IN.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...SHARPER RIDGE LOBE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS THE
FAR SERN AREA THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP IN LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE
SHOULD SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY MON. IF THE MODELS
MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE LOBE OVER THE AREA...LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN AREA.

FROM MIDWEEK ON...LOOKS LIKE UPPER TROF TO THE SW WILL TRY TO
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE RIDGE LOBE WILL WEAKEN. THIS
WOULD BRING IN A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP DUE TO INCREASED ELY
WAVE ACTIVITY. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN TO COVER THIS. PRECIP MAY
BE MORE SHOWERY AS WELL AS CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER BC COULD
DRIFT WWD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

JBT/RWT

000
FXAK68 PAFC 241250
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAY 23 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ENTIRE BERING THIS
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF
AK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST...WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE
ALCAN. THE JET MAX IS SETTING UP TO MOVE IN A NEAR ZONAL TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT IS DECAYING OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND A
DEVELOPING LOW IS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE ZONAL JET WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SAT EVENING...WITH A TRIPLE POINT FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF KODIAK ISLAND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE ORIGINAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK
TO THE PRIBILOFS AND BEYOND DURING THE SAME PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND MOST OF THE
GULF. ON SUN THE TRIPLE POINT LOW POSITION CREATES A MOIST EASTERLY
WAVE THAT WILL BRING SOME RAIN AS IT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
HOWEVER...THE THETA E RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST
LEANS HEAVILY UPON THE EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS...TRANSITIONING TO WPC
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
BERING AND MOST OF THE CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME GALES TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...EXCEPT FOR A FEW INLAND SHOWERS TODAY...THE
INTERIOR WILL BE DRY INTO NEXT WEEK. COASTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS HEADS TO THE PRIBILOFS.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES ON THE EASTERLY WAVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY MIDWEEK. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS TO SW AK AND AREAS SE OF THE AK RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAY 13

000
FXAK69 PAFG 241009
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 AM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR
POSITION DIFFERENCES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAK OVER THE INTERIOR
AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD TO THE WEST COAST TODAY. THERMAL TROUGH
IS WEAK WITHIN THE RIDGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THE 500H WAVERS BACK AND FORTH A FEW
DECAMETERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 120 HOURS AND BEYOND.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. BEGINNING SUN...500H REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT
WHILE LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES DRASTICALLY INCREASE WHICH WITHIN
THE THERMAL TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO AT LEAST
SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR SUN AND MON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCLINE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN THE SNOW MELT AND COULD
EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DELICATE BREAK UP ON INTERIOR RIVERS. A
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO SWEEP DOWN OVER THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST BY TUE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS NO COLD FRONT ANYWHERE NEAR ALASKA. BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
A DECENT THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN
INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING OR HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG THE
YUKON RIVER SOUTH AND WEST OF FORT YUKON WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF MAY 13

000
FXAK67 PAJK 232332
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER QUIET AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN
THE GULF AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS MADE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN PARTICULARLY IN YAKUTAT
WHICH JUST BROKE OUT OF THE CLOUDS A LITTLE AFTER NOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S
TODAY WITH THE SUNNY WEATHER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THEN 20 KT
IN MOST PLACES WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BEING THE MAIN
DRIVER. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CROSS SOUND WHICH HAS A NW SMALL
CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST PLACES TONIGHT AND INCREASING
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW. THE INCREASING CLOUDS IS DUE TO
THE REMAINS OF A FRONT IN THE UPPER TO MID LEVELS MOVING NW FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND COAST MOUNTAINS TOMORROW. THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD STAY DRY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPE. ALONG THE OUTER COAST, THE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT BRINGING MORE OVERCAST SKIES BEFORE
THEY BURN OFF AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW, THE HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS WARM AS THEY WERE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. GOING FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DOWN SOUTH WHILE IN THE NORTH, WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL NOT COME IN UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, WILL GET INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

FIRE WEATHER. FUEL CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT IN MOST NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LOCATIONS ACCORDING TO AICC. HOWEVER, WIND HAS BEEN LOW
AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH LOWER THEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT. THE PLACE THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER
IS SKAGWAY WHERE THE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO 24 PERCENT SO FAR
TODAY. DO NOT THINK THAT IT WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY BUT
IT WILL GET CLOSE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE THE SAME
CONDITIONS BUT DEW POINTS MIGHT BE A BIT HIGHER THEN THEY ARE
TODAY SO DON`T ANTICIPATE A RED FLAG WARNING NEEDED TOMORROW
EITHER.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. DECIDED ON USING
THE NAM AND ECMWF AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DETAIL THAT THEY PROVIDED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.



&&

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ALASKA REMAINS ONE OF PRIMARY
FEATURE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST ALASKA. EASTERLY FLOW TRYING TO SPREAD
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE COAST MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. FURTHER WEST AN OLD PARENT LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS SPREADING A WEAKENING BAND/WEAK LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THINK THAT THE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST AND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIKELY SHEERING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THERE
IS A SMALL VORTICITY LOBE THAT WILL BE ROTATING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND THAT MAY TRY AND POP A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE AREA LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. IT SORT OF
DEPENDS AMOUNT OF MOIST THAT IS STREAMING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A LOW WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHING
ITSELF SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED TO
PANHANDLE AND COAST MOUNTAIN AREA. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK EXPECT THE PANHANDLE AREA TO BE ABSORBED INTO A BROAD WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THE PANHANDLE AREA IN THE CENTER OF THE
REGION. AS RESULT A LARGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
MOSTLY CLOUDY, LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF RAIN.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PERIODS IS LOW OTHER THAN THE GENERALITY I
MENTIONED ABOVE, AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL FALL AND THEN HOW
MUCH. FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE BEHAVING RATHER WELL WITH AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE FACTOR.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK