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000
FXAK68 PAFC 030003
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BENDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WITH MORE AUTHORITY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES HAVE
ROTATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN
BEST IN THE IR SATELLITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS UNDER A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH HAS ALLOWED A LOT OF MARINE STRATUS TO MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND...THOUGH THE SUN IS BURNING MUCH OF THIS OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THE DISCREPANCY IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF
HAS LARGELY BEEN RESOLVED.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN A
SIMILAR MANNER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE OVER THE
AREA MONDAY BUT SOME RETURNING TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICAL
BUT THE SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE PATTERN ON BOTH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE ASSISTED IN KEEPING THE
HUMIDITY FAIRLY HIGH IN SPITE OF WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE SITUATION WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FROM DROPPING VERY LOW. IN ADDITION THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
REMAIN EXCELLENT WITH THE LONGER NIGHTS IN AUGUST AS COMPARED
WITH THE WARM STRETCHES THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA PLENTY OF MOIST MARINE AIR WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE SO NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR BENEATH THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO GRADUALLY WARM THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE REGION DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC LOW TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
TOMORROW SHOULD LARGELY END FOG CHANCES THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS AND
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY TOMORROW. A SLOW
MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TUESDAY NIGHT A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EAST
FROM NEAR SAND POINT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT MAINTAINS STRENGTH ON ITS PATH TO THE
EASTERN GULF. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF TURNAGAIN ARM ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW TIGHTENS THE SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT DRIVES
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNRESOLVED...BUT IT BRINGS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES
UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PICK UP ITS PACE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BOTH OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS...THEREFORE A CONSERVATIVE
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WAS UTILIZED TO UPDATE THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH



000
FXAK68 PAFC 030003
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BENDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WITH MORE AUTHORITY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES HAVE
ROTATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN
BEST IN THE IR SATELLITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS UNDER A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH HAS ALLOWED A LOT OF MARINE STRATUS TO MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND...THOUGH THE SUN IS BURNING MUCH OF THIS OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THE DISCREPANCY IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF
HAS LARGELY BEEN RESOLVED.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN A
SIMILAR MANNER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE OVER THE
AREA MONDAY BUT SOME RETURNING TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICAL
BUT THE SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE PATTERN ON BOTH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE ASSISTED IN KEEPING THE
HUMIDITY FAIRLY HIGH IN SPITE OF WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE SITUATION WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FROM DROPPING VERY LOW. IN ADDITION THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
REMAIN EXCELLENT WITH THE LONGER NIGHTS IN AUGUST AS COMPARED
WITH THE WARM STRETCHES THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA PLENTY OF MOIST MARINE AIR WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE SO NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR BENEATH THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO GRADUALLY WARM THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE REGION DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC LOW TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
TOMORROW SHOULD LARGELY END FOG CHANCES THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS AND
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY TOMORROW. A SLOW
MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TUESDAY NIGHT A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EAST
FROM NEAR SAND POINT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT MAINTAINS STRENGTH ON ITS PATH TO THE
EASTERN GULF. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF TURNAGAIN ARM ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW TIGHTENS THE SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT DRIVES
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNRESOLVED...BUT IT BRINGS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES
UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PICK UP ITS PACE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BOTH OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS...THEREFORE A CONSERVATIVE
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WAS UTILIZED TO UPDATE THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH



000
FXAK68 PAFC 030003
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BENDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WITH MORE AUTHORITY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES HAVE
ROTATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN
BEST IN THE IR SATELLITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS UNDER A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH HAS ALLOWED A LOT OF MARINE STRATUS TO MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND...THOUGH THE SUN IS BURNING MUCH OF THIS OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THE DISCREPANCY IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF
HAS LARGELY BEEN RESOLVED.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN A
SIMILAR MANNER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE OVER THE
AREA MONDAY BUT SOME RETURNING TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICAL
BUT THE SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE PATTERN ON BOTH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE ASSISTED IN KEEPING THE
HUMIDITY FAIRLY HIGH IN SPITE OF WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE SITUATION WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FROM DROPPING VERY LOW. IN ADDITION THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
REMAIN EXCELLENT WITH THE LONGER NIGHTS IN AUGUST AS COMPARED
WITH THE WARM STRETCHES THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA PLENTY OF MOIST MARINE AIR WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE SO NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR BENEATH THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO GRADUALLY WARM THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE REGION DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC LOW TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
TOMORROW SHOULD LARGELY END FOG CHANCES THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS AND
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY TOMORROW. A SLOW
MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TUESDAY NIGHT A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EAST
FROM NEAR SAND POINT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT MAINTAINS STRENGTH ON ITS PATH TO THE
EASTERN GULF. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF TURNAGAIN ARM ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW TIGHTENS THE SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT DRIVES
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNRESOLVED...BUT IT BRINGS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES
UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PICK UP ITS PACE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BOTH OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS...THEREFORE A CONSERVATIVE
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WAS UTILIZED TO UPDATE THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH



000
FXAK68 PAFC 030003
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BENDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WITH MORE AUTHORITY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES HAVE
ROTATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN
BEST IN THE IR SATELLITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS UNDER A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH HAS ALLOWED A LOT OF MARINE STRATUS TO MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND...THOUGH THE SUN IS BURNING MUCH OF THIS OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THE DISCREPANCY IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF
HAS LARGELY BEEN RESOLVED.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN A
SIMILAR MANNER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE OVER THE
AREA MONDAY BUT SOME RETURNING TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICAL
BUT THE SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE PATTERN ON BOTH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE ASSISTED IN KEEPING THE
HUMIDITY FAIRLY HIGH IN SPITE OF WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE SITUATION WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FROM DROPPING VERY LOW. IN ADDITION THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
REMAIN EXCELLENT WITH THE LONGER NIGHTS IN AUGUST AS COMPARED
WITH THE WARM STRETCHES THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA PLENTY OF MOIST MARINE AIR WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE SO NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR BENEATH THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO GRADUALLY WARM THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE REGION DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC LOW TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
TOMORROW SHOULD LARGELY END FOG CHANCES THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS AND
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY TOMORROW. A SLOW
MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TUESDAY NIGHT A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EAST
FROM NEAR SAND POINT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT MAINTAINS STRENGTH ON ITS PATH TO THE
EASTERN GULF. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF TURNAGAIN ARM ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW TIGHTENS THE SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT DRIVES
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNRESOLVED...BUT IT BRINGS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES
UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PICK UP ITS PACE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BOTH OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS...THEREFORE A CONSERVATIVE
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WAS UTILIZED TO UPDATE THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH



000
FXAK68 PAFC 030003
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BENDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WITH MORE AUTHORITY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES HAVE
ROTATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN
BEST IN THE IR SATELLITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS UNDER A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH HAS ALLOWED A LOT OF MARINE STRATUS TO MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND...THOUGH THE SUN IS BURNING MUCH OF THIS OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THE DISCREPANCY IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF
HAS LARGELY BEEN RESOLVED.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN A
SIMILAR MANNER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE OVER THE
AREA MONDAY BUT SOME RETURNING TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICAL
BUT THE SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE PATTERN ON BOTH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE ASSISTED IN KEEPING THE
HUMIDITY FAIRLY HIGH IN SPITE OF WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE SITUATION WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FROM DROPPING VERY LOW. IN ADDITION THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
REMAIN EXCELLENT WITH THE LONGER NIGHTS IN AUGUST AS COMPARED
WITH THE WARM STRETCHES THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA PLENTY OF MOIST MARINE AIR WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE SO NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR BENEATH THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO GRADUALLY WARM THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE REGION DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC LOW TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
TOMORROW SHOULD LARGELY END FOG CHANCES THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS AND
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY TOMORROW. A SLOW
MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TUESDAY NIGHT A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EAST
FROM NEAR SAND POINT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT MAINTAINS STRENGTH ON ITS PATH TO THE
EASTERN GULF. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF TURNAGAIN ARM ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW TIGHTENS THE SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT DRIVES
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNRESOLVED...BUT IT BRINGS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES
UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PICK UP ITS PACE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BOTH OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS...THEREFORE A CONSERVATIVE
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WAS UTILIZED TO UPDATE THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 030003
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BENDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WITH MORE AUTHORITY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES HAVE
ROTATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN
BEST IN THE IR SATELLITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS UNDER A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH HAS ALLOWED A LOT OF MARINE STRATUS TO MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND...THOUGH THE SUN IS BURNING MUCH OF THIS OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THE DISCREPANCY IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF
HAS LARGELY BEEN RESOLVED.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN A
SIMILAR MANNER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE OVER THE
AREA MONDAY BUT SOME RETURNING TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICAL
BUT THE SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE PATTERN ON BOTH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE ASSISTED IN KEEPING THE
HUMIDITY FAIRLY HIGH IN SPITE OF WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE SITUATION WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FROM DROPPING VERY LOW. IN ADDITION THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
REMAIN EXCELLENT WITH THE LONGER NIGHTS IN AUGUST AS COMPARED
WITH THE WARM STRETCHES THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA PLENTY OF MOIST MARINE AIR WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE SO NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR BENEATH THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO GRADUALLY WARM THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE REGION DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC LOW TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
TOMORROW SHOULD LARGELY END FOG CHANCES THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS AND
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY TOMORROW. A SLOW
MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TUESDAY NIGHT A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EAST
FROM NEAR SAND POINT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT MAINTAINS STRENGTH ON ITS PATH TO THE
EASTERN GULF. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF TURNAGAIN ARM ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW TIGHTENS THE SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT DRIVES
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNRESOLVED...BUT IT BRINGS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES
UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PICK UP ITS PACE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BOTH OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS...THEREFORE A CONSERVATIVE
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WAS UTILIZED TO UPDATE THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH



  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 022341
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND TO MOVE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE
OF THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKIM THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE THE
LAGGING REAR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE WESTERN AREA SAGS
SOUTH AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND TO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR DOWN THE WEST
COAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

MID RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT WILL
ALLOW A CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. NORTH WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME WAVE ACTION BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF HAZARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAVE
ASSISTED WITH FIRE SUPPRESSION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS AND SPREADS MORE RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY ON NIGHT AND TUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME. APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY FALL ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BUT SHOULD
NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES AS THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022341
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND TO MOVE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE
OF THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKIM THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE THE
LAGGING REAR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE WESTERN AREA SAGS
SOUTH AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND TO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR DOWN THE WEST
COAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

MID RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT WILL
ALLOW A CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. NORTH WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME WAVE ACTION BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF HAZARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAVE
ASSISTED WITH FIRE SUPPRESSION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS AND SPREADS MORE RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY ON NIGHT AND TUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME. APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY FALL ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BUT SHOULD
NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES AS THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022341
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND TO MOVE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE
OF THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKIM THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE THE
LAGGING REAR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE WESTERN AREA SAGS
SOUTH AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND TO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR DOWN THE WEST
COAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

MID RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT WILL
ALLOW A CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. NORTH WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME WAVE ACTION BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF HAZARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAVE
ASSISTED WITH FIRE SUPPRESSION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS AND SPREADS MORE RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY ON NIGHT AND TUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME. APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY FALL ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BUT SHOULD
NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES AS THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022341
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND TO MOVE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE
OF THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKIM THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE THE
LAGGING REAR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE WESTERN AREA SAGS
SOUTH AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND TO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR DOWN THE WEST
COAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

MID RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT WILL
ALLOW A CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. NORTH WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME WAVE ACTION BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF HAZARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAVE
ASSISTED WITH FIRE SUPPRESSION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS AND SPREADS MORE RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY ON NIGHT AND TUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME. APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY FALL ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BUT SHOULD
NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES AS THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15



  [top]

000
FXAK67 PAJK 022217
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THAT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN SEEING LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. LOOK FOR THAT TREND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. TO
THE NORTH, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH,
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE YUKON HAS RESULTED IN STEADY NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. SUSPECT THIS GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
BELIEVE A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL SET UP TOMORROW, BUT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.

APART FROM THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAKING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF ACTION IN THE
SHORT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF. BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVATIONS, CLOUD
COVER OF THE GULF AND NORTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE REDUCED BY THE NIGHT SHIFT.

NO CHANGES TO PRESSURE GRIDS NECESSARY. MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND
GRIDS. UPDATES TO POP AND QPF PER NAM AND GFS DID NOT APPRECIABLY
AFFECT THE FORECAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW FAR SOUTH OF COLD BAY ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH LESS SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK...WHILE A WEAK
LOW...OR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE DISSIPATES. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS BETWEEN THE HIGH RIDGE
AND THE LOW TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER FOR THE LOW TRACK AS IT ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF. USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD
TO DRAW SOME PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIODS. IN GENERAL...WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN SLIGHTLY COOLING DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
DISTANT FETCH AREAS SOUTH OF THE INCOMING LOW WILL LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO IMPACT THE YAKUTAT AREA
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. POSSIBLY IN THE SITKA ARE AS WELL VERY
EARLY IN THE MORNING. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MARGINAL VMC. APART FROM FOG IN THE YAKUTAT
AREA, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 022217
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THAT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN SEEING LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. LOOK FOR THAT TREND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. TO
THE NORTH, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH,
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE YUKON HAS RESULTED IN STEADY NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. SUSPECT THIS GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
BELIEVE A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL SET UP TOMORROW, BUT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.

APART FROM THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAKING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF ACTION IN THE
SHORT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF. BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVATIONS, CLOUD
COVER OF THE GULF AND NORTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE REDUCED BY THE NIGHT SHIFT.

NO CHANGES TO PRESSURE GRIDS NECESSARY. MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND
GRIDS. UPDATES TO POP AND QPF PER NAM AND GFS DID NOT APPRECIABLY
AFFECT THE FORECAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW FAR SOUTH OF COLD BAY ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH LESS SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK...WHILE A WEAK
LOW...OR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE DISSIPATES. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS BETWEEN THE HIGH RIDGE
AND THE LOW TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER FOR THE LOW TRACK AS IT ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF. USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD
TO DRAW SOME PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIODS. IN GENERAL...WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN SLIGHTLY COOLING DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
DISTANT FETCH AREAS SOUTH OF THE INCOMING LOW WILL LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO IMPACT THE YAKUTAT AREA
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. POSSIBLY IN THE SITKA ARE AS WELL VERY
EARLY IN THE MORNING. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MARGINAL VMC. APART FROM FOG IN THE YAKUTAT
AREA, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 021339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR ERN GULF EARLY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
SMALLER/COMPACT VORT LOBE IS MOVING S ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THIS VORT LOBE WILL BE ENTRAINED WITHIN A
STRONGER ZONE OF WLYS PRESENT TO THE S OF THE PRIMARY LOW. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...THE VORT LOBE WILL EJECT EWD TOWARD A POSITION
S OF HAIDA GWAII BY 12Z MON...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CAUSE THE
UPPER LOW TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE.
FARTHER N...A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER WILL BE SHUNTED SWD
ACROSS THE YUKON TERRITORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SWD TOWARD THE NRN
PANHANDLE...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORCED BY
A MODEST INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE NLYS BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE
CNTRL PANHANDLE NW TO THE NERN GULF LATE SUN NIGHT.

MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM HAZARD /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ IS AN
AREA OF RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW OVER OUTSIDE MARINE ZONE 42. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AROUND -23C WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
CAPE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MARINE ZONE 42 THAT SHIFTS SEWD TO
MARINE ZONE 41 BY AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO FORECAST TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD UPPER LOW MOVES ESE...WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. FINALLY...BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SWD INTO AKZ018-019
THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE ACCESS
TO SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY N AND W OF
HAINES/SKAGWAY.

OTHERWISE...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN
PAC TO THE SWRN GULF...COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN
CANADA...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY NWLY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SIMILAR TO SAT...THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LYNN CANAL...WHERE SLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN
PORTION OF THE CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL WILL ALSO FLIP
TO NLY LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON SURGES SWD. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY DRY NNWLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL
GENERALLY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVER THE PANHANDLE. POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT DUE TO DECREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND
RESULTANT STRONG DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE 00Z NAM. POP GRIDS WERE
GENERALLY LEFT UNTOUCHED...AND QPF WAS UPDATED WITH A GFS/NAM
BLEND.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW FIRST DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL STICK AROUND
THE HYDER AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED
INTO BC BY ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT,
IN TURN, WILL BE KICKED BY A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK, AND MODELS ARE
SPEEDING UP THE PROCESS.

THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE ONLY CLEAR EXCEPTION...YAKUTAT,
WHERE BOTH DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF A MAINLAND
ALASKA RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS OVER THE
GULF MAY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO DEVELOP, AND THUS, THE NORTHEAST
GULF SKY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS. CURRENTLY THOUGH IT LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST EARLY IN THE WEEK.

THE CONUNDRUM FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
PANHANDLE IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THEY MAY NOT BE GIVEN
STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. MOS
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
ON MONDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...BUT
STILL RELATIVELY WARM. WHILE WE NUDGED THINGS HIGHER DURING THIS
PERIOD...WE DID KEEP JUNEAU OUT OF 70S FOR NOW, GIVEN CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWER CHANCES. SKAGWAY AND HAINES THOUGH COULD EASILY SEE
MIDDLE 70S...EVEN UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL BE MUCH COOLER...NEAR 60 UNDERNEATH THE COLD UPPER
LOW. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS PRINCE OF WALES THAN WE HAVE INDICATED. BUT THIS IS A
TRICKY PATTERN WITH A LOT OF HEDGING.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW REACHES THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
AS STATED ABOVE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY MAKE AN EARLIER
ENTRANCE, AND THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK INCREASINGLY WET. THUS
AT SOME POINT...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO JUST
RAIN. PRESUMABLY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BUT
WE DO NOT THINK THE BREAK WILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT IN TIME. FOR
THOSE TIRED OF RAIN...THE BEST HOPE IS FOR THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO WEAKEN MID-WEEK.

USED NAM/ECMWF FOR EDITS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THAT FEW
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH WE DID EXPAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 021339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR ERN GULF EARLY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
SMALLER/COMPACT VORT LOBE IS MOVING S ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THIS VORT LOBE WILL BE ENTRAINED WITHIN A
STRONGER ZONE OF WLYS PRESENT TO THE S OF THE PRIMARY LOW. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...THE VORT LOBE WILL EJECT EWD TOWARD A POSITION
S OF HAIDA GWAII BY 12Z MON...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CAUSE THE
UPPER LOW TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE.
FARTHER N...A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER WILL BE SHUNTED SWD
ACROSS THE YUKON TERRITORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SWD TOWARD THE NRN
PANHANDLE...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORCED BY
A MODEST INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE NLYS BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE
CNTRL PANHANDLE NW TO THE NERN GULF LATE SUN NIGHT.

MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM HAZARD /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ IS AN
AREA OF RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW OVER OUTSIDE MARINE ZONE 42. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AROUND -23C WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
CAPE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MARINE ZONE 42 THAT SHIFTS SEWD TO
MARINE ZONE 41 BY AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO FORECAST TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD UPPER LOW MOVES ESE...WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. FINALLY...BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SWD INTO AKZ018-019
THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE ACCESS
TO SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY N AND W OF
HAINES/SKAGWAY.

OTHERWISE...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN
PAC TO THE SWRN GULF...COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN
CANADA...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY NWLY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SIMILAR TO SAT...THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LYNN CANAL...WHERE SLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN
PORTION OF THE CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL WILL ALSO FLIP
TO NLY LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON SURGES SWD. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY DRY NNWLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL
GENERALLY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVER THE PANHANDLE. POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT DUE TO DECREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND
RESULTANT STRONG DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE 00Z NAM. POP GRIDS WERE
GENERALLY LEFT UNTOUCHED...AND QPF WAS UPDATED WITH A GFS/NAM
BLEND.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW FIRST DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL STICK AROUND
THE HYDER AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED
INTO BC BY ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT,
IN TURN, WILL BE KICKED BY A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK, AND MODELS ARE
SPEEDING UP THE PROCESS.

THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE ONLY CLEAR EXCEPTION...YAKUTAT,
WHERE BOTH DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF A MAINLAND
ALASKA RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS OVER THE
GULF MAY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO DEVELOP, AND THUS, THE NORTHEAST
GULF SKY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS. CURRENTLY THOUGH IT LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST EARLY IN THE WEEK.

THE CONUNDRUM FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
PANHANDLE IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THEY MAY NOT BE GIVEN
STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. MOS
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
ON MONDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...BUT
STILL RELATIVELY WARM. WHILE WE NUDGED THINGS HIGHER DURING THIS
PERIOD...WE DID KEEP JUNEAU OUT OF 70S FOR NOW, GIVEN CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWER CHANCES. SKAGWAY AND HAINES THOUGH COULD EASILY SEE
MIDDLE 70S...EVEN UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL BE MUCH COOLER...NEAR 60 UNDERNEATH THE COLD UPPER
LOW. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS PRINCE OF WALES THAN WE HAVE INDICATED. BUT THIS IS A
TRICKY PATTERN WITH A LOT OF HEDGING.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW REACHES THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
AS STATED ABOVE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY MAKE AN EARLIER
ENTRANCE, AND THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK INCREASINGLY WET. THUS
AT SOME POINT...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO JUST
RAIN. PRESUMABLY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BUT
WE DO NOT THINK THE BREAK WILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT IN TIME. FOR
THOSE TIRED OF RAIN...THE BEST HOPE IS FOR THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO WEAKEN MID-WEEK.

USED NAM/ECMWF FOR EDITS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THAT FEW
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH WE DID EXPAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 021339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR ERN GULF EARLY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
SMALLER/COMPACT VORT LOBE IS MOVING S ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THIS VORT LOBE WILL BE ENTRAINED WITHIN A
STRONGER ZONE OF WLYS PRESENT TO THE S OF THE PRIMARY LOW. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...THE VORT LOBE WILL EJECT EWD TOWARD A POSITION
S OF HAIDA GWAII BY 12Z MON...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CAUSE THE
UPPER LOW TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE.
FARTHER N...A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER WILL BE SHUNTED SWD
ACROSS THE YUKON TERRITORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SWD TOWARD THE NRN
PANHANDLE...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORCED BY
A MODEST INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE NLYS BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE
CNTRL PANHANDLE NW TO THE NERN GULF LATE SUN NIGHT.

MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM HAZARD /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ IS AN
AREA OF RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW OVER OUTSIDE MARINE ZONE 42. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AROUND -23C WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
CAPE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MARINE ZONE 42 THAT SHIFTS SEWD TO
MARINE ZONE 41 BY AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO FORECAST TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD UPPER LOW MOVES ESE...WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. FINALLY...BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SWD INTO AKZ018-019
THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE ACCESS
TO SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY N AND W OF
HAINES/SKAGWAY.

OTHERWISE...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN
PAC TO THE SWRN GULF...COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN
CANADA...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY NWLY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SIMILAR TO SAT...THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LYNN CANAL...WHERE SLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN
PORTION OF THE CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL WILL ALSO FLIP
TO NLY LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON SURGES SWD. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY DRY NNWLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL
GENERALLY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVER THE PANHANDLE. POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT DUE TO DECREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND
RESULTANT STRONG DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE 00Z NAM. POP GRIDS WERE
GENERALLY LEFT UNTOUCHED...AND QPF WAS UPDATED WITH A GFS/NAM
BLEND.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW FIRST DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL STICK AROUND
THE HYDER AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED
INTO BC BY ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT,
IN TURN, WILL BE KICKED BY A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK, AND MODELS ARE
SPEEDING UP THE PROCESS.

THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE ONLY CLEAR EXCEPTION...YAKUTAT,
WHERE BOTH DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF A MAINLAND
ALASKA RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS OVER THE
GULF MAY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO DEVELOP, AND THUS, THE NORTHEAST
GULF SKY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS. CURRENTLY THOUGH IT LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST EARLY IN THE WEEK.

THE CONUNDRUM FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
PANHANDLE IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THEY MAY NOT BE GIVEN
STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. MOS
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
ON MONDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...BUT
STILL RELATIVELY WARM. WHILE WE NUDGED THINGS HIGHER DURING THIS
PERIOD...WE DID KEEP JUNEAU OUT OF 70S FOR NOW, GIVEN CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWER CHANCES. SKAGWAY AND HAINES THOUGH COULD EASILY SEE
MIDDLE 70S...EVEN UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL BE MUCH COOLER...NEAR 60 UNDERNEATH THE COLD UPPER
LOW. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS PRINCE OF WALES THAN WE HAVE INDICATED. BUT THIS IS A
TRICKY PATTERN WITH A LOT OF HEDGING.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW REACHES THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
AS STATED ABOVE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY MAKE AN EARLIER
ENTRANCE, AND THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK INCREASINGLY WET. THUS
AT SOME POINT...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO JUST
RAIN. PRESUMABLY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BUT
WE DO NOT THINK THE BREAK WILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT IN TIME. FOR
THOSE TIRED OF RAIN...THE BEST HOPE IS FOR THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO WEAKEN MID-WEEK.

USED NAM/ECMWF FOR EDITS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THAT FEW
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH WE DID EXPAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK68 PAFC 021240
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE BERING...HOWEVER
IT IS BUILDING MORE TO THE NORTH INTO EASTERN RUSSIA THAN TO THE
EAST TOWARD THE MAINLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FIRST IN A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MAINLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WAS LARGELY UNEXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S
FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH
AREAS OF RAIN TOWARD EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA CURRENTLY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MAINTAIN STRENGTH WHILE DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISTURBANCES
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MAINLAND INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT
NOT AS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...WITH IT
DRIFTING NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
GULF TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS IS A
SLIGHTLY GROWING SPREAD IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
THE MODELS...BUT OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
HELP KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
THINKING AS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND
MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA TODAY WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE MODELS SHOW
THINGS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMING CLEAR DURING THE DAY
TODAY. A LOOK AT THE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM...THUS THE FORECAST CLEARING WAS SLOWED A BIT
COMPARED TO THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SIMILAR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY
CHOP OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR IN COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THIS COULD AFFECT
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...SUNNY...AND WARMER
THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING...AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WITH A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING RESUPPLIED BY CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE BERING...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ADVECT INLAND....MAINLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST...WHICH WILL BURN OFF EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE A DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN..AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THE WILL KEEP
ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN AND
KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ALASKA.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021240
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE BERING...HOWEVER
IT IS BUILDING MORE TO THE NORTH INTO EASTERN RUSSIA THAN TO THE
EAST TOWARD THE MAINLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FIRST IN A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MAINLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WAS LARGELY UNEXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S
FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH
AREAS OF RAIN TOWARD EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA CURRENTLY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MAINTAIN STRENGTH WHILE DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISTURBANCES
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MAINLAND INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT
NOT AS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...WITH IT
DRIFTING NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
GULF TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS IS A
SLIGHTLY GROWING SPREAD IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
THE MODELS...BUT OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
HELP KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
THINKING AS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND
MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA TODAY WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE MODELS SHOW
THINGS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMING CLEAR DURING THE DAY
TODAY. A LOOK AT THE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM...THUS THE FORECAST CLEARING WAS SLOWED A BIT
COMPARED TO THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SIMILAR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY
CHOP OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR IN COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THIS COULD AFFECT
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...SUNNY...AND WARMER
THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING...AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WITH A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING RESUPPLIED BY CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE BERING...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ADVECT INLAND....MAINLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST...WHICH WILL BURN OFF EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE A DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN..AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THE WILL KEEP
ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN AND
KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ALASKA.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15



000
FXAK68 PAFC 020058
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BUILDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
DAY GOES ON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THE EARLY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND ALSO REMAINS
AN INTERESTING CASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LOW
LEVELS HAVE A STABILIZING MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND WITH THE CUMULUS BEGINNING AROUND NOON IT INCREASES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FEATURE THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH IS THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA STARTING
TONIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT GET NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. ASIDE
FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN CARELESSNESS THE BIGGEST FIRE THREAT
FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLARE UPS FROM THE
DUFF LAYER WHICH MAY STILL BE SMOLDERING WHERE RECENT FIRES HAVE
BURNED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY HIGH FOR A SUNNY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE COMING TO
AN END LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THIS...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUT THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MAKE WAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR FOG IS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DUE TO THE CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL
HELP TO ADVECT IN FOG FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS WILL LIKELY SEE FOG PUSH INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH DAY WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WEST. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL START TO BRING RAIN TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 020058
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BUILDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
DAY GOES ON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THE EARLY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND ALSO REMAINS
AN INTERESTING CASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LOW
LEVELS HAVE A STABILIZING MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND WITH THE CUMULUS BEGINNING AROUND NOON IT INCREASES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FEATURE THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH IS THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA STARTING
TONIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT GET NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. ASIDE
FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN CARELESSNESS THE BIGGEST FIRE THREAT
FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLARE UPS FROM THE
DUFF LAYER WHICH MAY STILL BE SMOLDERING WHERE RECENT FIRES HAVE
BURNED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY HIGH FOR A SUNNY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE COMING TO
AN END LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THIS...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUT THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MAKE WAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR FOG IS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DUE TO THE CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL
HELP TO ADVECT IN FOG FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS WILL LIKELY SEE FOG PUSH INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH DAY WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WEST. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL START TO BRING RAIN TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK68 PAFC 020058
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BUILDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
DAY GOES ON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THE EARLY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND ALSO REMAINS
AN INTERESTING CASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LOW
LEVELS HAVE A STABILIZING MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND WITH THE CUMULUS BEGINNING AROUND NOON IT INCREASES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FEATURE THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH IS THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA STARTING
TONIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT GET NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. ASIDE
FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN CARELESSNESS THE BIGGEST FIRE THREAT
FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLARE UPS FROM THE
DUFF LAYER WHICH MAY STILL BE SMOLDERING WHERE RECENT FIRES HAVE
BURNED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY HIGH FOR A SUNNY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE COMING TO
AN END LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THIS...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUT THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MAKE WAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR FOG IS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DUE TO THE CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL
HELP TO ADVECT IN FOG FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS WILL LIKELY SEE FOG PUSH INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH DAY WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WEST. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL START TO BRING RAIN TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK68 PAFC 020058
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BUILDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
DAY GOES ON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THE EARLY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND ALSO REMAINS
AN INTERESTING CASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LOW
LEVELS HAVE A STABILIZING MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND WITH THE CUMULUS BEGINNING AROUND NOON IT INCREASES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FEATURE THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH IS THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA STARTING
TONIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT GET NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. ASIDE
FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN CARELESSNESS THE BIGGEST FIRE THREAT
FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLARE UPS FROM THE
DUFF LAYER WHICH MAY STILL BE SMOLDERING WHERE RECENT FIRES HAVE
BURNED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY HIGH FOR A SUNNY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE COMING TO
AN END LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THIS...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUT THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MAKE WAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR FOG IS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DUE TO THE CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL
HELP TO ADVECT IN FOG FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS WILL LIKELY SEE FOG PUSH INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH DAY WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WEST. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL START TO BRING RAIN TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK68 PAFC 020058
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BUILDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
DAY GOES ON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THE EARLY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND ALSO REMAINS
AN INTERESTING CASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LOW
LEVELS HAVE A STABILIZING MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND WITH THE CUMULUS BEGINNING AROUND NOON IT INCREASES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FEATURE THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH IS THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA STARTING
TONIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT GET NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. ASIDE
FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN CARELESSNESS THE BIGGEST FIRE THREAT
FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLARE UPS FROM THE
DUFF LAYER WHICH MAY STILL BE SMOLDERING WHERE RECENT FIRES HAVE
BURNED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY HIGH FOR A SUNNY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE COMING TO
AN END LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THIS...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUT THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MAKE WAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR FOG IS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DUE TO THE CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL
HELP TO ADVECT IN FOG FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS WILL LIKELY SEE FOG PUSH INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH DAY WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WEST. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL START TO BRING RAIN TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK68 PAFC 020058
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BUILDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
DAY GOES ON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THE EARLY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND ALSO REMAINS
AN INTERESTING CASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LOW
LEVELS HAVE A STABILIZING MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND WITH THE CUMULUS BEGINNING AROUND NOON IT INCREASES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FEATURE THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH IS THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA STARTING
TONIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT GET NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. ASIDE
FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN CARELESSNESS THE BIGGEST FIRE THREAT
FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLARE UPS FROM THE
DUFF LAYER WHICH MAY STILL BE SMOLDERING WHERE RECENT FIRES HAVE
BURNED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY HIGH FOR A SUNNY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE COMING TO
AN END LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THIS...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STABLE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUT THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MAKE WAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR FOG IS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DUE TO THE CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL
HELP TO ADVECT IN FOG FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS WILL LIKELY SEE FOG PUSH INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH DAY WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
BERING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WEST. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL START TO BRING RAIN TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AKPEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB



000
FXAK67 PAJK 012356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTLY OF ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. NOTABLY, MODELS ARE INDICATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
IN RESPONSE TO THIS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORMING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
HAVE A MARGINAL, SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IN THE
LOWERS LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. NET EFFECT WILL BE CONVECTION
ABOVE A LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER MANIFESTING AS PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, BUT WITH NO NEAR SURFACE TRIGGERS SUCH AS
MECHANICAL LIFTING OR SURFACE BASED THERMAL ASCENT, ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ORIGINATE IN CANADA AND
ADVECT TO THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REACH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA.

NUDGED PREVIOUS PRESSURE AND WIND FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z NAM
MODEL RUN. POP AND QPF FROM A BLEND OF NAM, SREF, AND GFS. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NAM12 WAS
INITIALIZED BEST AND USED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME
BREAKS OF WET PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH POSSIBLE SPORADIC
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL PRODUCE UP TO 20 KNOTS WINDS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER BY MID WEEK AND USED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND MADE A FEW CHANGES FOR
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIT
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
LOW CEILINGS AND GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE START OF
AVIATION OPERATIONS SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN VARIOUS
TAFS AS A RESULT. FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE LOWERS LEVELS TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SMOOTH, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE BUMPY ABOVE THE
CLOUDS IN A MORE CONVECTIVE AIRMASS. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LARGER
CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES BY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 012356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTLY OF ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. NOTABLY, MODELS ARE INDICATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
IN RESPONSE TO THIS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORMING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
HAVE A MARGINAL, SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IN THE
LOWERS LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. NET EFFECT WILL BE CONVECTION
ABOVE A LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER MANIFESTING AS PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, BUT WITH NO NEAR SURFACE TRIGGERS SUCH AS
MECHANICAL LIFTING OR SURFACE BASED THERMAL ASCENT, ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ORIGINATE IN CANADA AND
ADVECT TO THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REACH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA.

NUDGED PREVIOUS PRESSURE AND WIND FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z NAM
MODEL RUN. POP AND QPF FROM A BLEND OF NAM, SREF, AND GFS. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NAM12 WAS
INITIALIZED BEST AND USED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME
BREAKS OF WET PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH POSSIBLE SPORADIC
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL PRODUCE UP TO 20 KNOTS WINDS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER BY MID WEEK AND USED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND MADE A FEW CHANGES FOR
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIT
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
LOW CEILINGS AND GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE START OF
AVIATION OPERATIONS SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN VARIOUS
TAFS AS A RESULT. FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE LOWERS LEVELS TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SMOOTH, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE BUMPY ABOVE THE
CLOUDS IN A MORE CONVECTIVE AIRMASS. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LARGER
CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES BY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 012356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTLY OF ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. NOTABLY, MODELS ARE INDICATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
IN RESPONSE TO THIS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORMING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
HAVE A MARGINAL, SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IN THE
LOWERS LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. NET EFFECT WILL BE CONVECTION
ABOVE A LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER MANIFESTING AS PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, BUT WITH NO NEAR SURFACE TRIGGERS SUCH AS
MECHANICAL LIFTING OR SURFACE BASED THERMAL ASCENT, ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ORIGINATE IN CANADA AND
ADVECT TO THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REACH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA.

NUDGED PREVIOUS PRESSURE AND WIND FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z NAM
MODEL RUN. POP AND QPF FROM A BLEND OF NAM, SREF, AND GFS. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NAM12 WAS
INITIALIZED BEST AND USED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME
BREAKS OF WET PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH POSSIBLE SPORADIC
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL PRODUCE UP TO 20 KNOTS WINDS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER BY MID WEEK AND USED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND MADE A FEW CHANGES FOR
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIT
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
LOW CEILINGS AND GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE START OF
AVIATION OPERATIONS SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN VARIOUS
TAFS AS A RESULT. FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE LOWERS LEVELS TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SMOOTH, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE BUMPY ABOVE THE
CLOUDS IN A MORE CONVECTIVE AIRMASS. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LARGER
CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES BY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 012356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTLY OF ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. NOTABLY, MODELS ARE INDICATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
IN RESPONSE TO THIS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORMING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
HAVE A MARGINAL, SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IN THE
LOWERS LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. NET EFFECT WILL BE CONVECTION
ABOVE A LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER MANIFESTING AS PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, BUT WITH NO NEAR SURFACE TRIGGERS SUCH AS
MECHANICAL LIFTING OR SURFACE BASED THERMAL ASCENT, ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ORIGINATE IN CANADA AND
ADVECT TO THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REACH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA.

NUDGED PREVIOUS PRESSURE AND WIND FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z NAM
MODEL RUN. POP AND QPF FROM A BLEND OF NAM, SREF, AND GFS. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NAM12 WAS
INITIALIZED BEST AND USED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME
BREAKS OF WET PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH POSSIBLE SPORADIC
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL PRODUCE UP TO 20 KNOTS WINDS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER BY MID WEEK AND USED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND MADE A FEW CHANGES FOR
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIT
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
LOW CEILINGS AND GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE START OF
AVIATION OPERATIONS SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN VARIOUS
TAFS AS A RESULT. FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE LOWERS LEVELS TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SMOOTH, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE BUMPY ABOVE THE
CLOUDS IN A MORE CONVECTIVE AIRMASS. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LARGER
CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES BY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK69 PAFG 012122
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
122 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHER PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT DISINTEGRATES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIKELY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS WITH THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN TODAY...ANOTHER LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND
WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT BACK NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WHICH WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWEST
ALASKA. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH RAIN
ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE ON SUN. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE SHORT
WAVE IS A WARM FRONT WITH A TON OF WARM AIR WITH IT. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOLDING DECENT MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME PLACES ON THE
ARCTIC SLOPE AND COAST WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA BY MID WEEK WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS COULD SPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTION EASTWARD WITH THE SHARP BAROCLINICITY. A
POSSIBLE CLASSIC SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP BY A NORTHERN UPPER LOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WITH POSSIBLE VERY DEEP POOL OF COLD AIR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND DRY OUT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FIRE
SPREAD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ON WED COULD SPREAD
RAINFALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ALONG WITH CONVECTION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 012122
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
122 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHER PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT DISINTEGRATES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIKELY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS WITH THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN TODAY...ANOTHER LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND
WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT BACK NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WHICH WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWEST
ALASKA. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH RAIN
ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE ON SUN. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE SHORT
WAVE IS A WARM FRONT WITH A TON OF WARM AIR WITH IT. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOLDING DECENT MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME PLACES ON THE
ARCTIC SLOPE AND COAST WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA BY MID WEEK WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS COULD SPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTION EASTWARD WITH THE SHARP BAROCLINICITY. A
POSSIBLE CLASSIC SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP BY A NORTHERN UPPER LOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WITH POSSIBLE VERY DEEP POOL OF COLD AIR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND DRY OUT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FIRE
SPREAD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ON WED COULD SPREAD
RAINFALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ALONG WITH CONVECTION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15




000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING CONVECTION
OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY
BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO ITS SSE.
THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING CONVECTION
OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY
BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO ITS SSE.
THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING CONVECTION
OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY
BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO ITS SSE.
THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING /THUS FAR/
CONVECTION OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
TO ITS SSE. THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING /THUS FAR/
CONVECTION OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
TO ITS SSE. THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING /THUS FAR/
CONVECTION OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
TO ITS SSE. THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING /THUS FAR/
CONVECTION OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
TO ITS SSE. THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 011356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NWRN
CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE AND THEN WSW TO THE CNTRL
ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
CLOSED UPPER LOWS BY 12Z SUN...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THE SECOND POSITIONED FROM
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE TO THE SERN GULF. ANOTHER SMALL/COMPACT UPPER
VORT LOBE IS ALSO MOVING S FROM YAKUTAT THIS MORNING...AND IS
AIDING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY VIGOROUS NON-THUNDERING CONVECTION
OVER MARINE ZONE 51. THE NRN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY
BE ABSORBED BY THE SECOND/LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO ITS SSE.
THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER WRN CANADA WILL FAVOR NNWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 1/ LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SSWLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND 2/ SEA
BREEZE PRONE LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE ...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IF THIS
GUIDANCE PROVES CORRECT...THEN LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YAKUTAT...SITKA...AND KLAWOCK.

GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE ACHIEVED THROUGH A NUDGE TO THE NAM/GFS.
THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST DEVIATION MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
VARIOUS INSIDE CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THE TWO LOWS INITIALLY DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
FORM SOME SORT OF COMBINATION OMEGA/REX BLOCK, WHICH SUDDENLY
PLACES OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN SLOW MOTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INCREASINGLY SUSPECT AS IT
LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
STIRS A FAMILIAR REFRAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE DURING A WET
JULY AS SURFACE LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN A LOBE TO THE
NORTHWEST...REFLECTING ENERGY ALOFT THAT HANGS BEHIND THE PARENT
LOW FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM
SING THIS TUNE IN FORTE (LOUD)...THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE SCORE.
THUS, THIS DIRECTOR IS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPERIMENT BY
PUSHING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PIANOFORTE (A LITTLE SOFTER).

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...NORTHERLIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INSIDE PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN WEAKER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LYNN CANAL COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...ADIABATIC WARMING ON TOP
OF A WARM AIR MASS TRANSPORTED FROM CANADA MAY HEAT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AT THE CENTER OF THE STALLED LOW
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION MOVING WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
SOME WARM AIR ROUNDS THE LOW FROM THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW...KEPT
CONSISTENCY WITH PREIOUS FORECASTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CONCERT OVER THE LOW EXITING INTO BC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A COLD AIR CLIPPER FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DEGRADE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
START PUSHING THE WESTERN GULF LOW EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A TINY
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS AS THE WESTERN GULF FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE PLACE TO REPLACE THE EXITING ONE. IF THE ECWMF IS
CORRECT...THE BREAK COULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...EXPECT A MUCH SHORTER ONE.

GFS AND ECMWF USED FOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN WINDS
AND NUDGED TO GFS AND NAM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK69 PAFG 011346
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
546 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AK AND NW CANADA WILL PROGRESS
EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA SUN. A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN ALASKA SAT...AND OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SUN THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SLOWLY WEST FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE SUN THROUGH
TUE...THEN A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND FROM WED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN IN WESTERLY FLOW SO WILL SEE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE TO
MAYO TO NORTHWAY BY 4PM SAT THEN WEAKEN. THERE ARE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THIS NOW WITH THIS TROUGH AND EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO OLD CROW TO TANANA TO ST MARYS BY 4PM SAT...AND TO
EAGLE TO TOK BY 4AM SUN...THEN EAST OF NORTHWAY BY 4PM SUN.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NOW OCCURING ALONG THIS TROUGH BECOMING
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE EXTREME SE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 500 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4PM SAT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO KIVALINA BY 4PM SAT...AND THEN
WEAKEN. THERE IS RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH .25-.50
INCH IN NW ALASKA BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15G25KT WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
TURN NW AND DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS W 10G20KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH SMOKE FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
FIRES INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SECOND LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND ON SUN
AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM MON AS A 1003 MB LOW. THIS WILL PUSH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST SUN AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST MON NIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS FRONT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WILL SEE W WINDS 25 KT
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CAUSE MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON.

A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE EASTERN BERING TO
PERSIST. WEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CAUSE THE STRATUS
AND FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MON. AFTER MON START TO SEE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BETWEEN
MODELS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN
THROUGH LATE MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH EXPECT TO BE ABOVE 40% MOST OF AREA TODAY...EXCEPT 30-40% IN
ZONE 224. WEST WINDS 10G20 MPH IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING BUT WITH HIGH RH SHOULD LIMIT BURNING.

EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING TREND FROM SUN THROUGH MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS NOW FALLING ACROSS INTERIOR
THE .25-.50 INCH RAIN IN NW ALASKA EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE RIVERS THERE TO RISE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY SO NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH
CHANGE IN INTERIOR RIVERS.

EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

JB AUG 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 011346
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
546 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AK AND NW CANADA WILL PROGRESS
EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA SUN. A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN ALASKA SAT...AND OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SUN THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SLOWLY WEST FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE SUN THROUGH
TUE...THEN A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND FROM WED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN IN WESTERLY FLOW SO WILL SEE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE TO
MAYO TO NORTHWAY BY 4PM SAT THEN WEAKEN. THERE ARE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THIS NOW WITH THIS TROUGH AND EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO OLD CROW TO TANANA TO ST MARYS BY 4PM SAT...AND TO
EAGLE TO TOK BY 4AM SUN...THEN EAST OF NORTHWAY BY 4PM SUN.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NOW OCCURING ALONG THIS TROUGH BECOMING
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE EXTREME SE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 500 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4PM SAT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO KIVALINA BY 4PM SAT...AND THEN
WEAKEN. THERE IS RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH .25-.50
INCH IN NW ALASKA BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15G25KT WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
TURN NW AND DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS W 10G20KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH SMOKE FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
FIRES INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SECOND LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND ON SUN
AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM MON AS A 1003 MB LOW. THIS WILL PUSH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST SUN AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST MON NIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS FRONT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WILL SEE W WINDS 25 KT
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CAUSE MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON.

A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE EASTERN BERING TO
PERSIST. WEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CAUSE THE STRATUS
AND FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MON. AFTER MON START TO SEE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BETWEEN
MODELS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN
THROUGH LATE MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH EXPECT TO BE ABOVE 40% MOST OF AREA TODAY...EXCEPT 30-40% IN
ZONE 224. WEST WINDS 10G20 MPH IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING BUT WITH HIGH RH SHOULD LIMIT BURNING.

EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING TREND FROM SUN THROUGH MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS NOW FALLING ACROSS INTERIOR
THE .25-.50 INCH RAIN IN NW ALASKA EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE RIVERS THERE TO RISE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY SO NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH
CHANGE IN INTERIOR RIVERS.

EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 011346
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
546 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AK AND NW CANADA WILL PROGRESS
EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA SUN. A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN ALASKA SAT...AND OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SUN THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SLOWLY WEST FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE SUN THROUGH
TUE...THEN A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND FROM WED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN IN WESTERLY FLOW SO WILL SEE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE TO
MAYO TO NORTHWAY BY 4PM SAT THEN WEAKEN. THERE ARE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THIS NOW WITH THIS TROUGH AND EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO OLD CROW TO TANANA TO ST MARYS BY 4PM SAT...AND TO
EAGLE TO TOK BY 4AM SUN...THEN EAST OF NORTHWAY BY 4PM SUN.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NOW OCCURING ALONG THIS TROUGH BECOMING
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE EXTREME SE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 500 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4PM SAT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO KIVALINA BY 4PM SAT...AND THEN
WEAKEN. THERE IS RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH .25-.50
INCH IN NW ALASKA BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15G25KT WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
TURN NW AND DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS W 10G20KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH SMOKE FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
FIRES INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SECOND LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND ON SUN
AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM MON AS A 1003 MB LOW. THIS WILL PUSH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST SUN AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST MON NIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS FRONT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WILL SEE W WINDS 25 KT
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CAUSE MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON.

A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE EASTERN BERING TO
PERSIST. WEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CAUSE THE STRATUS
AND FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MON. AFTER MON START TO SEE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BETWEEN
MODELS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN
THROUGH LATE MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH EXPECT TO BE ABOVE 40% MOST OF AREA TODAY...EXCEPT 30-40% IN
ZONE 224. WEST WINDS 10G20 MPH IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING BUT WITH HIGH RH SHOULD LIMIT BURNING.

EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING TREND FROM SUN THROUGH MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS NOW FALLING ACROSS INTERIOR
THE .25-.50 INCH RAIN IN NW ALASKA EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE RIVERS THERE TO RISE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY SO NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH
CHANGE IN INTERIOR RIVERS.

EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 011346
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
546 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AK AND NW CANADA WILL PROGRESS
EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA SUN. A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN ALASKA SAT...AND OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SUN THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SLOWLY WEST FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE SUN THROUGH
TUE...THEN A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND FROM WED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN IN WESTERLY FLOW SO WILL SEE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE TO
MAYO TO NORTHWAY BY 4PM SAT THEN WEAKEN. THERE ARE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THIS NOW WITH THIS TROUGH AND EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO OLD CROW TO TANANA TO ST MARYS BY 4PM SAT...AND TO
EAGLE TO TOK BY 4AM SUN...THEN EAST OF NORTHWAY BY 4PM SUN.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NOW OCCURING ALONG THIS TROUGH BECOMING
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE EXTREME SE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 500 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4PM SAT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT HOPE
WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO KIVALINA BY 4PM SAT...AND THEN
WEAKEN. THERE IS RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH .25-.50
INCH IN NW ALASKA BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15G25KT WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
TURN NW AND DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS W 10G20KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH SMOKE FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
FIRES INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SECOND LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND ON SUN
AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM MON AS A 1003 MB LOW. THIS WILL PUSH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST SUN AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST MON NIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS FRONT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WILL SEE W WINDS 25 KT
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CAUSE MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON.

A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE EASTERN BERING TO
PERSIST. WEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CAUSE THE STRATUS
AND FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MON. AFTER MON START TO SEE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BETWEEN
MODELS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
MODERATE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FROM BARROW WEST LATE SUN
THROUGH LATE MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH EXPECT TO BE ABOVE 40% MOST OF AREA TODAY...EXCEPT 30-40% IN
ZONE 224. WEST WINDS 10G20 MPH IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING BUT WITH HIGH RH SHOULD LIMIT BURNING.

EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING TREND FROM SUN THROUGH MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS NOW FALLING ACROSS INTERIOR
THE .25-.50 INCH RAIN IN NW ALASKA EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE RIVERS THERE TO RISE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY SO NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH
CHANGE IN INTERIOR RIVERS.

EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

JB AUG 15



000
FXAK68 PAFC 011226
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE ALASKA
MAINLAND...WITH A NARROW YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR YAKUTAT WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND NORTH AND EAST TO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STABILIZE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GIVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAD BEEN
CENTERED ON A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (EC) MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...DEVELOPING THE LOW INTO A LOW-END NEAR-GALE FORCE LOW
THAT MEANDERS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING SLOWLY EAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THE PLACES THIS WILL IMPACT THE MOST
WILL BE THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS)
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS MUCH
DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER RH VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER THESE RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE UNUSUAL LOW WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF BRISTOL BAY
WILL MAKE IT INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT
TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VERY WARM READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE BERING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AKPEN. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CLEARING OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FOG WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA...STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND STALL OUT SATURDAY
BRINGING IN SOME LIGHTER RAIN TO THE ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY
EVENING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BRINGING SOME MORE STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION SECTION...A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THE AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC




000
FXAK68 PAFC 011226
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE ALASKA
MAINLAND...WITH A NARROW YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR YAKUTAT WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND NORTH AND EAST TO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STABILIZE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GIVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAD BEEN
CENTERED ON A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (EC) MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...DEVELOPING THE LOW INTO A LOW-END NEAR-GALE FORCE LOW
THAT MEANDERS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING SLOWLY EAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THE PLACES THIS WILL IMPACT THE MOST
WILL BE THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS)
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS MUCH
DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER RH VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER THESE RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE UNUSUAL LOW WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF BRISTOL BAY
WILL MAKE IT INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT
TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VERY WARM READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE BERING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AKPEN. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CLEARING OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FOG WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA...STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND STALL OUT SATURDAY
BRINGING IN SOME LIGHTER RAIN TO THE ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY
EVENING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BRINGING SOME MORE STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION SECTION...A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THE AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC



000
FXAK68 PAFC 011226
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE ALASKA
MAINLAND...WITH A NARROW YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR YAKUTAT WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND NORTH AND EAST TO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STABILIZE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GIVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAD BEEN
CENTERED ON A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (EC) MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...DEVELOPING THE LOW INTO A LOW-END NEAR-GALE FORCE LOW
THAT MEANDERS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING SLOWLY EAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THE PLACES THIS WILL IMPACT THE MOST
WILL BE THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS)
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS MUCH
DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER RH VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER THESE RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE UNUSUAL LOW WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF BRISTOL BAY
WILL MAKE IT INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT
TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VERY WARM READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE BERING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AKPEN. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CLEARING OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FOG WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA...STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND STALL OUT SATURDAY
BRINGING IN SOME LIGHTER RAIN TO THE ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY
EVENING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BRINGING SOME MORE STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION SECTION...A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THE AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC




000
FXAK68 PAFC 011226
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE ALASKA
MAINLAND...WITH A NARROW YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR YAKUTAT WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND NORTH AND EAST TO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STABILIZE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GIVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAD BEEN
CENTERED ON A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (EC) MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...DEVELOPING THE LOW INTO A LOW-END NEAR-GALE FORCE LOW
THAT MEANDERS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING SLOWLY EAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THE PLACES THIS WILL IMPACT THE MOST
WILL BE THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS)
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS MUCH
DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER RH VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER THESE RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE UNUSUAL LOW WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF BRISTOL BAY
WILL MAKE IT INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT
TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VERY WARM READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE BERING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AKPEN. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CLEARING OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FOG WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA...STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND STALL OUT SATURDAY
BRINGING IN SOME LIGHTER RAIN TO THE ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY
EVENING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BRINGING SOME MORE STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION SECTION...A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THE AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC




000
FXAK68 PAFC 011226
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE ALASKA
MAINLAND...WITH A NARROW YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR YAKUTAT WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND NORTH AND EAST TO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STABILIZE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GIVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAD BEEN
CENTERED ON A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (EC) MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...DEVELOPING THE LOW INTO A LOW-END NEAR-GALE FORCE LOW
THAT MEANDERS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING SLOWLY EAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THE PLACES THIS WILL IMPACT THE MOST
WILL BE THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS)
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS MUCH
DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER RH VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER THESE RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE UNUSUAL LOW WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF BRISTOL BAY
WILL MAKE IT INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT
TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VERY WARM READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE BERING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AKPEN. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CLEARING OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FOG WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA...STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND STALL OUT SATURDAY
BRINGING IN SOME LIGHTER RAIN TO THE ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY
EVENING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BRINGING SOME MORE STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION SECTION...A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THE AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC




000
FXAK68 PAFC 011226
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 AM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE ALASKA
MAINLAND...WITH A NARROW YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR YAKUTAT WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND NORTH AND EAST TO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STABILIZE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GIVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAD BEEN
CENTERED ON A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (EC) MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...DEVELOPING THE LOW INTO A LOW-END NEAR-GALE FORCE LOW
THAT MEANDERS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING SLOWLY EAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THE PLACES THIS WILL IMPACT THE MOST
WILL BE THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS)
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS MUCH
DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER RH VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER THESE RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE UNUSUAL LOW WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF BRISTOL BAY
WILL MAKE IT INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT
TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VERY WARM READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE BERING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AKPEN. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CLEARING OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FOG WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA...STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND STALL OUT SATURDAY
BRINGING IN SOME LIGHTER RAIN TO THE ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY
EVENING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BRINGING SOME MORE STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION SECTION...A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THE AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC




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