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000
FXAK68 PAFC 070109
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
409 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS INTACT
ACROSS THE BERING...THUS KEEPING ANY COLD AIR OUTBREAKS LOCKED UP
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. WHILE THE JET STREAM FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE ZONAL
FLOW OF WEEKS PAST IS THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM PATTERN
IS FAR MORE MERIDIONAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE UPPER
LOW HAS HELPED DIG A TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE
MIDLATITUDES...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG THE 160W MERIDIAN. THIS HAS IN
TURN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ON BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST SIDES OF THE TROUGH. THE MORE NOTABLE RIDGE IS EAST OF
THE LOW...CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO FLOW NEARLY SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE. VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER CORRELATES WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A JET STREAK...HELPING INTENSIFY A STRONG FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER ON THE EAST SIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENTLY A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SUSITNA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS...THOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HAS RESULTED FROM IT. AN
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH IS KEEPING WET WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF AREAS AS
WELL.

ACROSS THE WEST... WEAK FEATURES REMAIN THE CAUSES OF LOCAL AREAS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE PUSHING NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING...WHILE THE WESTERN BERING REMAINS IN AN
UNSTABLE...SHOWERY...COLDER WEATHER REGIME. OTHER THAN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AFFECTING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA...ONLY
ONE OTHER STRONG FEATURE WILL DEVELOP. A VERY STRONG 180 KT JET
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL REORIENT INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...MAKING
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THAT AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE LARGELY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT
THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM FORCE FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF IS PEGGED NEARLY IDENTICALLY BY ALL
THE MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...WITH SOME SMALL DISCREPANCIES IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE THERE ARE ONLY SMALL FEATURES OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY. THESE ARE
USUALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS SO THE MORE
DETAILED GEM WAS USED. THE NAM...BEING ANOTHER HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODEL WAS NOT USED SINCE IT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
CONCERNING THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. THE OTHER CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING INTENSE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ABOUT A DAY
OR SO. THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER...HOWEVER SINCE THEY ARE
UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...ONLY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE
THROUGH THE CHAIN. THE DETAILS ON THAT ASPECT OF THE STORM ARE
LARGELY THE SAME.

ON THE EAST SIDE...A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/AND EC WERE USED TO BLEND
TOGETHER ANY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. FOR THE WEST
SIDE...THE EC WAS THE GLOBAL MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH THE GEM USED
FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM A SMALL SURFACE LOW OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST KENAI PENINSULA COAST AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND INLAND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS THE
STRONG WEATHER FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED PARENT SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AROUND 47N WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND CROSSING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY. AFTER BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WATERS INCLUDING SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND THE EASTERN BARRENS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BRING SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A MATURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING A FRONT TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. THERE IS
ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHERE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...ONE SWINGS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...THE
OTHER WILL JUST REACH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND GALE FORCE WITH THE MAIN LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING INLAND LOCATIONS. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING WILL TRACK
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING WHILE DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
LOW ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING...AND
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH EQUALLY AS
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR
OFF EASTERN RUSSIA ADVECTS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO LOSE MOMENTUM BY
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW
TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREAS
SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE EC AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEMS ENTERING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THE FORECAST GOES. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 136 137 139 155 176 177.
 STORM 131 132 138 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...TP




000
FXAK68 PAFC 070109
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
409 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS INTACT
ACROSS THE BERING...THUS KEEPING ANY COLD AIR OUTBREAKS LOCKED UP
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. WHILE THE JET STREAM FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE ZONAL
FLOW OF WEEKS PAST IS THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM PATTERN
IS FAR MORE MERIDIONAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE UPPER
LOW HAS HELPED DIG A TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE
MIDLATITUDES...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG THE 160W MERIDIAN. THIS HAS IN
TURN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ON BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST SIDES OF THE TROUGH. THE MORE NOTABLE RIDGE IS EAST OF
THE LOW...CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO FLOW NEARLY SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE. VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER CORRELATES WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A JET STREAK...HELPING INTENSIFY A STRONG FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER ON THE EAST SIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENTLY A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SUSITNA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS...THOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HAS RESULTED FROM IT. AN
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH IS KEEPING WET WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF AREAS AS
WELL.

ACROSS THE WEST... WEAK FEATURES REMAIN THE CAUSES OF LOCAL AREAS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE PUSHING NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING...WHILE THE WESTERN BERING REMAINS IN AN
UNSTABLE...SHOWERY...COLDER WEATHER REGIME. OTHER THAN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AFFECTING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA...ONLY
ONE OTHER STRONG FEATURE WILL DEVELOP. A VERY STRONG 180 KT JET
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL REORIENT INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...MAKING
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THAT AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE LARGELY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT
THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM FORCE FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF IS PEGGED NEARLY IDENTICALLY BY ALL
THE MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...WITH SOME SMALL DISCREPANCIES IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE THERE ARE ONLY SMALL FEATURES OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY. THESE ARE
USUALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS SO THE MORE
DETAILED GEM WAS USED. THE NAM...BEING ANOTHER HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODEL WAS NOT USED SINCE IT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
CONCERNING THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. THE OTHER CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING INTENSE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ABOUT A DAY
OR SO. THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER...HOWEVER SINCE THEY ARE
UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...ONLY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE
THROUGH THE CHAIN. THE DETAILS ON THAT ASPECT OF THE STORM ARE
LARGELY THE SAME.

ON THE EAST SIDE...A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/AND EC WERE USED TO BLEND
TOGETHER ANY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. FOR THE WEST
SIDE...THE EC WAS THE GLOBAL MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH THE GEM USED
FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM A SMALL SURFACE LOW OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST KENAI PENINSULA COAST AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND INLAND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS THE
STRONG WEATHER FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED PARENT SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AROUND 47N WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND CROSSING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY. AFTER BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WATERS INCLUDING SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND THE EASTERN BARRENS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BRING SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A MATURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING A FRONT TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. THERE IS
ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHERE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...ONE SWINGS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...THE
OTHER WILL JUST REACH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND GALE FORCE WITH THE MAIN LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING INLAND LOCATIONS. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING WILL TRACK
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING WHILE DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
LOW ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING...AND
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH EQUALLY AS
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR
OFF EASTERN RUSSIA ADVECTS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO LOSE MOMENTUM BY
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW
TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREAS
SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE EC AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEMS ENTERING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THE FORECAST GOES. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 136 137 139 155 176 177.
 STORM 131 132 138 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...TP



000
FXAK68 PAFC 070109
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
409 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS INTACT
ACROSS THE BERING...THUS KEEPING ANY COLD AIR OUTBREAKS LOCKED UP
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. WHILE THE JET STREAM FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE ZONAL
FLOW OF WEEKS PAST IS THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM PATTERN
IS FAR MORE MERIDIONAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE UPPER
LOW HAS HELPED DIG A TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE
MIDLATITUDES...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG THE 160W MERIDIAN. THIS HAS IN
TURN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ON BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST SIDES OF THE TROUGH. THE MORE NOTABLE RIDGE IS EAST OF
THE LOW...CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO FLOW NEARLY SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE. VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER CORRELATES WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A JET STREAK...HELPING INTENSIFY A STRONG FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER ON THE EAST SIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENTLY A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SUSITNA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS...THOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HAS RESULTED FROM IT. AN
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH IS KEEPING WET WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF AREAS AS
WELL.

ACROSS THE WEST... WEAK FEATURES REMAIN THE CAUSES OF LOCAL AREAS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE PUSHING NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING...WHILE THE WESTERN BERING REMAINS IN AN
UNSTABLE...SHOWERY...COLDER WEATHER REGIME. OTHER THAN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AFFECTING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA...ONLY
ONE OTHER STRONG FEATURE WILL DEVELOP. A VERY STRONG 180 KT JET
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL REORIENT INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...MAKING
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THAT AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE LARGELY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT
THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM FORCE FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF IS PEGGED NEARLY IDENTICALLY BY ALL
THE MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...WITH SOME SMALL DISCREPANCIES IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE THERE ARE ONLY SMALL FEATURES OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY. THESE ARE
USUALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS SO THE MORE
DETAILED GEM WAS USED. THE NAM...BEING ANOTHER HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODEL WAS NOT USED SINCE IT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
CONCERNING THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. THE OTHER CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING INTENSE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ABOUT A DAY
OR SO. THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER...HOWEVER SINCE THEY ARE
UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...ONLY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE
THROUGH THE CHAIN. THE DETAILS ON THAT ASPECT OF THE STORM ARE
LARGELY THE SAME.

ON THE EAST SIDE...A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/AND EC WERE USED TO BLEND
TOGETHER ANY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. FOR THE WEST
SIDE...THE EC WAS THE GLOBAL MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH THE GEM USED
FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM A SMALL SURFACE LOW OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST KENAI PENINSULA COAST AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND INLAND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS THE
STRONG WEATHER FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED PARENT SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AROUND 47N WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND CROSSING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY. AFTER BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WATERS INCLUDING SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND THE EASTERN BARRENS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BRING SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A MATURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING A FRONT TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. THERE IS
ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHERE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...ONE SWINGS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...THE
OTHER WILL JUST REACH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND GALE FORCE WITH THE MAIN LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING INLAND LOCATIONS. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING WILL TRACK
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING WHILE DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
LOW ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING...AND
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH EQUALLY AS
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR
OFF EASTERN RUSSIA ADVECTS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO LOSE MOMENTUM BY
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW
TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREAS
SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE EC AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEMS ENTERING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THE FORECAST GOES. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 136 137 139 155 176 177.
 STORM 131 132 138 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...TP



  [top]

000
FXAK67 PAJK 070102 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO A
MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT ROUGHLY 6 OR
8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT
AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL REMAIN
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 1 TO 3
INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SUNDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH AT
THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE OUTER
COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE
PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO ENHANCE WINDS.
A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED A
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 070102 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO A
MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT ROUGHLY 6 OR
8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT
AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL REMAIN
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 1 TO 3
INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SUNDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH AT
THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE OUTER
COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE
PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO ENHANCE WINDS.
A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED A
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 070102 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO A
MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT ROUGHLY 6 OR
8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT
AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL REMAIN
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 1 TO 3
INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SUNDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH AT
THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE OUTER
COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE
PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO ENHANCE WINDS.
A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED A
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU


  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 070029
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR JUST NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BETTER REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SPREAD SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT MOVES EASTWARD ON THE ARCTIC
COAST. BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS WELL. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE FAR EASTERN ARCTIC LIKE NEAR BARTER ISLAND AS THE SQUEEZE FROM
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND A LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY DEVELOPS.

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ALASKA BY MON AFTERNOON. UPPER HIGH IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 070029
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR JUST NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BETTER REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SPREAD SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT MOVES EASTWARD ON THE ARCTIC
COAST. BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS WELL. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE FAR EASTERN ARCTIC LIKE NEAR BARTER ISLAND AS THE SQUEEZE FROM
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND A LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY DEVELOPS.

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ALASKA BY MON AFTERNOON. UPPER HIGH IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16



000
FXAK69 PAFG 070029
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR JUST NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BETTER REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SPREAD SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT MOVES EASTWARD ON THE ARCTIC
COAST. BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS WELL. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE FAR EASTERN ARCTIC LIKE NEAR BARTER ISLAND AS THE SQUEEZE FROM
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND A LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY DEVELOPS.

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ALASKA BY MON AFTERNOON. UPPER HIGH IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16




000
FXAK67 PAJK 062317
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO
A MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT
ROUGHLY 6 OR 8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL
REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
1 TO 3 INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE
OUTER COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
ENHANCE WINDS. A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 062317
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO
A MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT
ROUGHLY 6 OR 8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL
REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
1 TO 3 INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE
OUTER COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
ENHANCE WINDS. A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 062317
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO
A MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT
ROUGHLY 6 OR 8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL
REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
1 TO 3 INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE
OUTER COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
ENHANCE WINDS. A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 062317
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO
A MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT
ROUGHLY 6 OR 8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL
REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
1 TO 3 INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE
OUTER COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
ENHANCE WINDS. A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 062317
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
217 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
JUNEAU AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HYDER DUE TO
A MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. ALSO BASED UPON A LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS STORM A FEW DAYS AGO, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW AT
ROUGHLY 6 OR 8:1. 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO LIQUID BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL
REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
1 TO 3 INCHES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND. HAVE INCLUDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING. A 50-55 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE
OUTER COAST HOWEVER AS THE PARENT LOW IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH NO WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
ENHANCE WINDS. A TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
A BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR MINOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE RIDGE...WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING N ACROSS THE GULF MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
THE DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS PRODUCING A FULLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
CYCLONE...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE /NAM
RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS/. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS
AND POTENTIAL AUGMENTATION TO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND TUE...PATTERN
EVOLVES FROM PERIODIC OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO SLYS...WITH
EACH SLY BURST USHERING IN/REINFORCING A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT ALTERED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH TUE...THEN
TRENDED TOWARD LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 061506
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
606 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG THE PANHANDLE IS BEING
MOVED INLAND BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH HAS A COLLECTION OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO HAIDA GWAII. THE SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ARE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY
HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVING NORTH OUT THE PACIFIC HEADED TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND IS RIGHT ON THE TRACK WE HAD BEEN WATCHING. THE LOW
WHICH WAS THE DEEPEST SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 950 MB RANGE
WILL WEAKEN TO THE UPPER 960 MB SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT
ARCHES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR HAIDA
GWAII LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST OUTFLOW FROM PORTLAND
CANAL WILL KEEP SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE HYDER AREA SO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO START AS SNOW THERE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS ALONG THE FRONT ARE MAX GALES... ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MIN
STORMS MAY BE FOUND AS WELL. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST TO 45 KT.
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND HAVE INCREASED UP TO GALE FORCE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE CROSS SOUND WILL ALSO REACH GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL START TO SPREAD GUSTY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL AREAS FORM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE BARANOF ISLAND.
HAVE GONE WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THOSE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...CYCLONE CENTERED OVER 45 N AND 155 W AT THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND
WEAKEN AS IT AT FIRST LUNGES TOWARD KODIAK THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
THEN TIP-TOES TOWARDS KODIAK SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED GALE-
FORCE FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
BEGIN WEAKENING. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...STRONG WINDS SPAWNED BY THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AS MOST OF THE FRONTAL ENERGY PULLS
TO THE NORTHWEST. THUS GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
PANHANDLE SHOULD RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUBSIDE.

THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO PROFILE THE LONG FETCH OF WARM, MOIST
AIR AIMED MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TWO BIG ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT ARE ONE, THE HEAVY RAINS
AND RESULTING RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THIS REGION, AND
TWO, THE INTERACTION OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR DAMMED INTO HYDER RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PLUME AND STRONGEST LIFT SETTING UP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...MAINLY ZONES 28 AND 29 FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD. ECMWF
POTENTIALLY WANTS TO TURN THE PLUME WEST, AS FAR NORTH TO JUNEAU
BY MONDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING A WAVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM.
AT THIS POINT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR ZONES 28/29 TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER 26 AND 27 DURING THIS
EVENT. BUT A MISCALCULATION OF JUST THIRTY/FORTY MILES TO THE
WEST AND KLAWOCK AND CRAIG SHOULD RECEIVE MUCH MORE THAN FORECAST.
RAINFALL RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SUGGEST BANDS OF 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES/HOUR. GIVEN TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT, THIS SHOULD BE MAGNIFIED AT
LANDFALL...THUS HEAVY RAIN BANDS SHOULD NOT BE A STRETCH.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS WHETHER HYDER WARMS UP AT THE SURFACE GIVEN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT ALOFT. IT HAS TO...YES. BUT WHEN? THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE THAT WARM SOUTHERLIES WILL TRAVEL UP PORTLAND CANAL...BUT
THE SURFACE WILL MORE LIKELY WARM BY HEAT TRANSFER FROM THE WHOLE
COLUMN ABOVE. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES MAY JUST SUCCEED AT
THIS. THE DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN SHOULD HAVE NO ROOM FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. BUT GIVEN A TOPOGRAPHY THAT STUBBORNLY LOCKS
COLD AIR IN PLACE, WE MUST RESPECT ITS ABILITY TO SURPRISE. FOR
THIS REASON WE ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BORDERLINE
WARNING OR ADVISORY EVENT. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF A SWITCHOVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN HYDER RANGE FROM 8 TO 14
INCHES AND PURPOSEFULLY ALSO REFLECTED A LIGHTER END GIVEN
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MELTING POINT. OTHER THAN HYDER...
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BEGIN AS SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE EDGE ADVANCES ON SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
ACROSS THIS REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE FINALLY BUCKLES NORTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY...THUS ENDING THE RAIN TRAIN INTO SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WAVE RESTARTS THINGS BY WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED WET AND
WARM PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

USED ECWMF/GFS FOR MINOR CHANGES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL
DISAGREEMENT DISCOURAGED CHANGES ON MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DICEY ON PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR HYDER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE GREATER FOR OTHER ISSUES.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-028.
     STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

BEZENEK/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 061506
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
606 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG THE PANHANDLE IS BEING
MOVED INLAND BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH HAS A COLLECTION OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO HAIDA GWAII. THE SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ARE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY
HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVING NORTH OUT THE PACIFIC HEADED TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND IS RIGHT ON THE TRACK WE HAD BEEN WATCHING. THE LOW
WHICH WAS THE DEEPEST SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 950 MB RANGE
WILL WEAKEN TO THE UPPER 960 MB SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT
ARCHES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR HAIDA
GWAII LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST OUTFLOW FROM PORTLAND
CANAL WILL KEEP SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE HYDER AREA SO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO START AS SNOW THERE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS ALONG THE FRONT ARE MAX GALES... ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MIN
STORMS MAY BE FOUND AS WELL. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST TO 45 KT.
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND HAVE INCREASED UP TO GALE FORCE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE CROSS SOUND WILL ALSO REACH GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL START TO SPREAD GUSTY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL AREAS FORM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE BARANOF ISLAND.
HAVE GONE WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THOSE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...CYCLONE CENTERED OVER 45 N AND 155 W AT THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND
WEAKEN AS IT AT FIRST LUNGES TOWARD KODIAK THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
THEN TIP-TOES TOWARDS KODIAK SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED GALE-
FORCE FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
BEGIN WEAKENING. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...STRONG WINDS SPAWNED BY THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AS MOST OF THE FRONTAL ENERGY PULLS
TO THE NORTHWEST. THUS GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
PANHANDLE SHOULD RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUBSIDE.

THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO PROFILE THE LONG FETCH OF WARM, MOIST
AIR AIMED MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TWO BIG ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT ARE ONE, THE HEAVY RAINS
AND RESULTING RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THIS REGION, AND
TWO, THE INTERACTION OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR DAMMED INTO HYDER RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PLUME AND STRONGEST LIFT SETTING UP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...MAINLY ZONES 28 AND 29 FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD. ECMWF
POTENTIALLY WANTS TO TURN THE PLUME WEST, AS FAR NORTH TO JUNEAU
BY MONDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING A WAVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM.
AT THIS POINT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR ZONES 28/29 TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER 26 AND 27 DURING THIS
EVENT. BUT A MISCALCULATION OF JUST THIRTY/FORTY MILES TO THE
WEST AND KLAWOCK AND CRAIG SHOULD RECEIVE MUCH MORE THAN FORECAST.
RAINFALL RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SUGGEST BANDS OF 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES/HOUR. GIVEN TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT, THIS SHOULD BE MAGNIFIED AT
LANDFALL...THUS HEAVY RAIN BANDS SHOULD NOT BE A STRETCH.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS WHETHER HYDER WARMS UP AT THE SURFACE GIVEN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT ALOFT. IT HAS TO...YES. BUT WHEN? THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE THAT WARM SOUTHERLIES WILL TRAVEL UP PORTLAND CANAL...BUT
THE SURFACE WILL MORE LIKELY WARM BY HEAT TRANSFER FROM THE WHOLE
COLUMN ABOVE. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES MAY JUST SUCCEED AT
THIS. THE DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN SHOULD HAVE NO ROOM FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. BUT GIVEN A TOPOGRAPHY THAT STUBBORNLY LOCKS
COLD AIR IN PLACE, WE MUST RESPECT ITS ABILITY TO SURPRISE. FOR
THIS REASON WE ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BORDERLINE
WARNING OR ADVISORY EVENT. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF A SWITCHOVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN HYDER RANGE FROM 8 TO 14
INCHES AND PURPOSEFULLY ALSO REFLECTED A LIGHTER END GIVEN
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MELTING POINT. OTHER THAN HYDER...
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BEGIN AS SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE EDGE ADVANCES ON SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
ACROSS THIS REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE FINALLY BUCKLES NORTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY...THUS ENDING THE RAIN TRAIN INTO SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WAVE RESTARTS THINGS BY WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED WET AND
WARM PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

USED ECWMF/GFS FOR MINOR CHANGES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL
DISAGREEMENT DISCOURAGED CHANGES ON MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DICEY ON PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR HYDER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE GREATER FOR OTHER ISSUES.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-028.
     STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

$$

BEZENEK/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK69 PAFG 061405
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
505 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
504 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...THEREAFTER...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT HOWEVER
THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT
PRIMARILY THE WEST COAST.

.SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A 983 LOW NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A SECOND LOW NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND WILL MOVE TO WESTERN NORTON SOUND BY 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE TO NEAR POINT HOPE AS A 1004 MB LOW BY
3 AM SUNDAY...THEN WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE BY EARLY MONDAY.

.ALOFT...
AT 500 HPA...A 510 DAM LOW OVER DEADHORSE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THOUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.NORTH SLOPE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH AND THE LOW IN
THE BERING SEA WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN ZONE 201. WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 201 FOR TODAY FOR BLOWING
SNOW.  EXPECT THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA
MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND THE HIGH IN THE ARCTIC MIGRATES
EASTWARD. WE DO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC ON
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY LIMITED TO FLURRIES.

.WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
A SERIES OF OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE WEST COAST. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS COULD SEE UP TO THREE INCHES. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS WEAKER.

.CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A SERIES OF OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES BEGINNING ON MONDAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

FEB 16




000
FXAK68 PAFC 061327
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REGIONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A
PERSISTENT PATTERN...DRIVEN STRONGLY BY A STOUT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SPINNING UP POWERFUL LOWS BEFORE
THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER ONE OF THESE SUCH LOWS IS
CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF THE GULF NEAR
40N. THIS IS FORMING AT THE EASTERN END OF A RATHER ANOMALOUS
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC...WITH A FEED OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR ORIGINATING FROM SIBERIA THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING AND INTO
THE TROUGH.

OVER THE BERING...BROAD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS THE
COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. A
MESOSCALE LOW ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS TRACKING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR...WITH A TROUGH AXIS/WIND
SHIFT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS AS IT MOVES
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SOUTHCENTRAL...A SMALL BUT DYNAMIC
CLOSED LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF KODIAK IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND EASTERN KENAI TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THEY ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POWERFUL BOMB
CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BE TRIGGERED OVER THE AREAS SURROUNDING COOK INLET...BUT POPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD...THAT WILL BE CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A BAND OF STORM FORCE
WINDS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WEAKEN. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE PARENT LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND EXIT INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR BY TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINS
THEREAFTER WITH OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE AKPEN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE SHOWERY REGIME OVER
THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. BY SUNDAY A PAIR OF LARGER AND
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL REACH STORM-FORCE
ESPECIALLY WHERE A BARRIER JET FORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN
TO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE AKPEN AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD KODIAK BRINGING A REINFORCING
WAVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH SPREADS SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW
ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT AS IT DEEPENS TO 950 MB.
THIS SYSTEM LOSES MOMENTUM INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SPINS UP AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL ALONG 40N AT THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 131 132 138 150 351 352.
         GALE  119 120 127 130 136 137 139 155 160 176 177
               178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 061327
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REGIONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A
PERSISTENT PATTERN...DRIVEN STRONGLY BY A STOUT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SPINNING UP POWERFUL LOWS BEFORE
THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER ONE OF THESE SUCH LOWS IS
CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF THE GULF NEAR
40N. THIS IS FORMING AT THE EASTERN END OF A RATHER ANOMALOUS
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC...WITH A FEED OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR ORIGINATING FROM SIBERIA THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING AND INTO
THE TROUGH.

OVER THE BERING...BROAD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS THE
COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. A
MESOSCALE LOW ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS TRACKING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR...WITH A TROUGH AXIS/WIND
SHIFT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS AS IT MOVES
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SOUTHCENTRAL...A SMALL BUT DYNAMIC
CLOSED LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF KODIAK IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND EASTERN KENAI TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THEY ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POWERFUL BOMB
CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BE TRIGGERED OVER THE AREAS SURROUNDING COOK INLET...BUT POPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD...THAT WILL BE CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A BAND OF STORM FORCE
WINDS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WEAKEN. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE PARENT LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND EXIT INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR BY TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINS
THEREAFTER WITH OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE AKPEN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE SHOWERY REGIME OVER
THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. BY SUNDAY A PAIR OF LARGER AND
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL REACH STORM-FORCE
ESPECIALLY WHERE A BARRIER JET FORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN
TO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE AKPEN AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD KODIAK BRINGING A REINFORCING
WAVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH SPREADS SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW
ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT AS IT DEEPENS TO 950 MB.
THIS SYSTEM LOSES MOMENTUM INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SPINS UP AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL ALONG 40N AT THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 131 132 138 150 351 352.
         GALE  119 120 127 130 136 137 139 155 160 176 177
               178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH



000
FXAK68 PAFC 061327
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REGIONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A
PERSISTENT PATTERN...DRIVEN STRONGLY BY A STOUT NORTH PACIFIC JET
STREAM...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SPINNING UP POWERFUL LOWS BEFORE
THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER ONE OF THESE SUCH LOWS IS
CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF THE GULF NEAR
40N. THIS IS FORMING AT THE EASTERN END OF A RATHER ANOMALOUS
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC...WITH A FEED OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR ORIGINATING FROM SIBERIA THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING AND INTO
THE TROUGH.

OVER THE BERING...BROAD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS THE
COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. A
MESOSCALE LOW ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS TRACKING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR...WITH A TROUGH AXIS/WIND
SHIFT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS AS IT MOVES
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SOUTHCENTRAL...A SMALL BUT DYNAMIC
CLOSED LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF KODIAK IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND EASTERN KENAI TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THEY ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POWERFUL BOMB
CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BE TRIGGERED OVER THE AREAS SURROUNDING COOK INLET...BUT POPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD...THAT WILL BE CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A BAND OF STORM FORCE
WINDS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WEAKEN. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE PARENT LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND EXIT INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR BY TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINS
THEREAFTER WITH OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE AKPEN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE SHOWERY REGIME OVER
THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. BY SUNDAY A PAIR OF LARGER AND
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL REACH STORM-FORCE
ESPECIALLY WHERE A BARRIER JET FORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN
TO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE AKPEN AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD KODIAK BRINGING A REINFORCING
WAVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH SPREADS SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW
ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT AS IT DEEPENS TO 950 MB.
THIS SYSTEM LOSES MOMENTUM INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SPINS UP AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL ALONG 40N AT THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 131 132 138 150 351 352.
         GALE  119 120 127 130 136 137 139 155 160 176 177
               178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 060134
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAND TODAY LOOKS MUCH THE SAME
AS THE MAJORITY OF WINTER SO FAR...WEAK TROUGHING/CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDING OVER THE
MAINLAND. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...A COUPLE THINGS STAND OUT. THE FIRST IS THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OPEN-
CELLED STRUCTURE SPEAKS TO THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. THE
SECOND IS THE NUMBER OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE FLOW.
NO LESS THAN FOUR ARE EVIDENT...MOVING TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
LOTS OF SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ON THE RADAR ALONG THE NORTH GULF
WITH MORE ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF. CURRENTLY...WEAK CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPS THE COOK INLET
REGION DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW
SLACKENS BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN
DEVELOPING FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKING SHAPE SOUTH
OF THE GULF...THAT WILL SEND A GALE FORCE FRONT INTO THE GULF ON
EARLY SUNDAY.

ON THE MESO-SCALE...MORE DISAGREEMENTS ARE EVIDENT...CONCERNING A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THAT WILL BE SPINNING
UP IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS
ON WHEN THE TURNAGAIN/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WANE AND PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND ANCHORAGE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION ITSELF...HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE COARSER MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER
IN THE QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN SEVERAL SMALL VARIABLES WILL END UP
DETERMINING WHETHER IT RAINS OR SNOWS (OR BOTH!). LET US START OFF
WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOMORROW. RECENT GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE ENDS
UP FRAGMENTING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...TWO SEPARATE VORT MAXES OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM WOULD DEVELOP. THIS
WOULD END UP KEEPING ANCHORAGE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO VORT MAXES. NOW...TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS
AND GAP WINDS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WHICH MAY PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL.
THE GRADIENT IN TURNAGAIN ARM WILL BRIEFLY BECOME UP INLET RIGHT
AROUND WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TINY PIECE OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH ANCHORAGE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS SOUTH ANCHORAGE
WOULD FALL AS RAIN WITH AREAS IN EAST ANCHORAGE AND DOWNTOWN
SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE LAST DRIVING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE INTENSITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS. WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN RIGHT AROUND THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...A FAIRLY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SET UP. SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY
CHANGE ANY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING TO SNOW BUT WOULD LIKELY REVERT
BACK TO RAIN AFTER THE INTENSITY DIMINISHES. SO AFTER ALL OF
THAT...THE BEST ANSWER FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY LUCK OUT AND SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN ANCHORAGE BUT OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE ACCUMULATION (IF THAT).

LOOKING BACK AT THE BIG PICTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH PUSH
ACROSS THE GULF ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF THE
COLD AIR THAT GETS ADVECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE
ERODED BY THIS AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CENTER
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NORTH OF DILLINGHAM AS THEY WILL EXPERIENCE DEEP
UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING JUST A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY DOWNSLOPING FROM THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THIS IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH ON SATURDAY THEN CAUSE THE SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA TO
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING WILL THEN DIMINISH
OVER BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY AS A STORM FORCE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH UNALASKA LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY AS A GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD KODIAK BRINGING A REINFORCING
WAVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH SPREADS SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW
ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT AS IT DEEPENS TO 950 MB.
THIS SYSTEM LOSES MOMENTUM INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SPINS UP AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE JET STREAMS REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL ALONG 40N AT THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 131 136 137 138 155 172.
 STORM 130 150.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 060134
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAND TODAY LOOKS MUCH THE SAME
AS THE MAJORITY OF WINTER SO FAR...WEAK TROUGHING/CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDING OVER THE
MAINLAND. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...A COUPLE THINGS STAND OUT. THE FIRST IS THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OPEN-
CELLED STRUCTURE SPEAKS TO THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. THE
SECOND IS THE NUMBER OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE FLOW.
NO LESS THAN FOUR ARE EVIDENT...MOVING TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
LOTS OF SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ON THE RADAR ALONG THE NORTH GULF
WITH MORE ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF. CURRENTLY...WEAK CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPS THE COOK INLET
REGION DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW
SLACKENS BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN
DEVELOPING FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKING SHAPE SOUTH
OF THE GULF...THAT WILL SEND A GALE FORCE FRONT INTO THE GULF ON
EARLY SUNDAY.

ON THE MESO-SCALE...MORE DISAGREEMENTS ARE EVIDENT...CONCERNING A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THAT WILL BE SPINNING
UP IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS
ON WHEN THE TURNAGAIN/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WANE AND PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND ANCHORAGE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION ITSELF...HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE COARSER MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER
IN THE QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN SEVERAL SMALL VARIABLES WILL END UP
DETERMINING WHETHER IT RAINS OR SNOWS (OR BOTH!). LET US START OFF
WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOMORROW. RECENT GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE ENDS
UP FRAGMENTING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...TWO SEPARATE VORT MAXES OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM WOULD DEVELOP. THIS
WOULD END UP KEEPING ANCHORAGE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO VORT MAXES. NOW...TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS
AND GAP WINDS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WHICH MAY PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL.
THE GRADIENT IN TURNAGAIN ARM WILL BRIEFLY BECOME UP INLET RIGHT
AROUND WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TINY PIECE OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH ANCHORAGE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS SOUTH ANCHORAGE
WOULD FALL AS RAIN WITH AREAS IN EAST ANCHORAGE AND DOWNTOWN
SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE LAST DRIVING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE INTENSITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS. WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN RIGHT AROUND THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...A FAIRLY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SET UP. SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY
CHANGE ANY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING TO SNOW BUT WOULD LIKELY REVERT
BACK TO RAIN AFTER THE INTENSITY DIMINISHES. SO AFTER ALL OF
THAT...THE BEST ANSWER FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY LUCK OUT AND SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN ANCHORAGE BUT OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE ACCUMULATION (IF THAT).

LOOKING BACK AT THE BIG PICTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH PUSH
ACROSS THE GULF ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF THE
COLD AIR THAT GETS ADVECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE
ERODED BY THIS AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CENTER
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NORTH OF DILLINGHAM AS THEY WILL EXPERIENCE DEEP
UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING JUST A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY DOWNSLOPING FROM THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THIS IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH ON SATURDAY THEN CAUSE THE SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA TO
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING WILL THEN DIMINISH
OVER BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY AS A STORM FORCE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH UNALASKA LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY AS A GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD KODIAK BRINGING A REINFORCING
WAVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH SPREADS SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW
ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT AS IT DEEPENS TO 950 MB.
THIS SYSTEM LOSES MOMENTUM INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SPINS UP AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE JET STREAMS REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL ALONG 40N AT THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 131 136 137 138 155 172.
 STORM 130 150.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 060134
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAND TODAY LOOKS MUCH THE SAME
AS THE MAJORITY OF WINTER SO FAR...WEAK TROUGHING/CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA AND EXTENDING OVER THE
MAINLAND. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...A COUPLE THINGS STAND OUT. THE FIRST IS THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OPEN-
CELLED STRUCTURE SPEAKS TO THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. THE
SECOND IS THE NUMBER OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE FLOW.
NO LESS THAN FOUR ARE EVIDENT...MOVING TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
LOTS OF SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ON THE RADAR ALONG THE NORTH GULF
WITH MORE ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF. CURRENTLY...WEAK CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPS THE COOK INLET
REGION DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW
SLACKENS BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN
DEVELOPING FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKING SHAPE SOUTH
OF THE GULF...THAT WILL SEND A GALE FORCE FRONT INTO THE GULF ON
EARLY SUNDAY.

ON THE MESO-SCALE...MORE DISAGREEMENTS ARE EVIDENT...CONCERNING A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THAT WILL BE SPINNING
UP IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS
ON WHEN THE TURNAGAIN/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WANE AND PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND ANCHORAGE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION ITSELF...HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE COARSER MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER
IN THE QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN SEVERAL SMALL VARIABLES WILL END UP
DETERMINING WHETHER IT RAINS OR SNOWS (OR BOTH!). LET US START OFF
WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOMORROW. RECENT GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE ENDS
UP FRAGMENTING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...TWO SEPARATE VORT MAXES OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM WOULD DEVELOP. THIS
WOULD END UP KEEPING ANCHORAGE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO VORT MAXES. NOW...TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS
AND GAP WINDS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WHICH MAY PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL.
THE GRADIENT IN TURNAGAIN ARM WILL BRIEFLY BECOME UP INLET RIGHT
AROUND WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TINY PIECE OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH ANCHORAGE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS SOUTH ANCHORAGE
WOULD FALL AS RAIN WITH AREAS IN EAST ANCHORAGE AND DOWNTOWN
SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE LAST DRIVING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE INTENSITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS. WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN RIGHT AROUND THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...A FAIRLY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SET UP. SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY
CHANGE ANY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING TO SNOW BUT WOULD LIKELY REVERT
BACK TO RAIN AFTER THE INTENSITY DIMINISHES. SO AFTER ALL OF
THAT...THE BEST ANSWER FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY LUCK OUT AND SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN ANCHORAGE BUT OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE ACCUMULATION (IF THAT).

LOOKING BACK AT THE BIG PICTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH PUSH
ACROSS THE GULF ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF THE
COLD AIR THAT GETS ADVECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE
ERODED BY THIS AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CENTER
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NORTH OF DILLINGHAM AS THEY WILL EXPERIENCE DEEP
UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING JUST A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY DOWNSLOPING FROM THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THIS IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH ON SATURDAY THEN CAUSE THE SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA TO
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING WILL THEN DIMINISH
OVER BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY AS A STORM FORCE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH UNALASKA LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY AS A GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD KODIAK BRINGING A REINFORCING
WAVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH SPREADS SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW
ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT AS IT DEEPENS TO 950 MB.
THIS SYSTEM LOSES MOMENTUM INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SPINS UP AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE JET STREAMS REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL ALONG 40N AT THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 131 136 137 138 155 172.
 STORM 130 150.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...KH



000
FXAK67 PAJK 052339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...QUIETER WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY.
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND REPORTS OF PELLETS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHARPEN ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING GALE FORCE FRONT
THAT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
SECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS
THERE REMAINS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH SOME COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDING OVER THE PANHANDLE EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN AT SEA LEVEL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
DUE TO LOW QPF AMOUNTS AND A STILL RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE
EASTERLY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THE SHARPENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN 15-20 KT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH
THE INNER CHANNELS ON SATURDAY BUT DO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIND THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS OBSERVED IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE NCNTRL PAC FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BY SAT...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL MOVE N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SUN. AS THIS
TAKES PLACE...A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SERN AK. IN ADDITION TO HAZARDOUS MARINE WINDS...SELY GUSTS
FROM 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES...AS WELL
AS THE KETCHIKAN AREA.

A MOIST AIRMASS /PW VALUES FROM 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH/ WILL SPREAD N
TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE WITH THE FRONT...AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MON NIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SRN
AREAS...AND POTENTIALLY WET HEAVY SNOW OVER HYDER SUN-SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR WINTER STORM
WATCH ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NNW WILL TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN THE
WET WEATHER DURING PART OF TUE...BUT THIS BREAK WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED. WARM AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD N WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH AN ECMWF/NAM/GFS/INHERITED BLEND
THROUGH 00Z TUE...FOLLOWED BY WPC THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST WAS ALSO REFRESHED WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-043-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-051-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU



000
FXAK67 PAJK 052339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...QUIETER WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY.
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND REPORTS OF PELLETS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHARPEN ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING GALE FORCE FRONT
THAT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
SECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS
THERE REMAINS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH SOME COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDING OVER THE PANHANDLE EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN AT SEA LEVEL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
DUE TO LOW QPF AMOUNTS AND A STILL RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE
EASTERLY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THE SHARPENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN 15-20 KT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH
THE INNER CHANNELS ON SATURDAY BUT DO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIND THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS OBSERVED IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE NCNTRL PAC FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BY SAT...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL MOVE N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SUN. AS THIS
TAKES PLACE...A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SERN AK. IN ADDITION TO HAZARDOUS MARINE WINDS...SELY GUSTS
FROM 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES...AS WELL
AS THE KETCHIKAN AREA.

A MOIST AIRMASS /PW VALUES FROM 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH/ WILL SPREAD N
TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE WITH THE FRONT...AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MON NIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SRN
AREAS...AND POTENTIALLY WET HEAVY SNOW OVER HYDER SUN-SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR WINTER STORM
WATCH ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NNW WILL TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN THE
WET WEATHER DURING PART OF TUE...BUT THIS BREAK WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED. WARM AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD N WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH AN ECMWF/NAM/GFS/INHERITED BLEND
THROUGH 00Z TUE...FOLLOWED BY WPC THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST WAS ALSO REFRESHED WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-043-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-051-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 052339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...QUIETER WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY.
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND REPORTS OF PELLETS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHARPEN ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING GALE FORCE FRONT
THAT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
SECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS
THERE REMAINS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH SOME COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDING OVER THE PANHANDLE EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN AT SEA LEVEL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
DUE TO LOW QPF AMOUNTS AND A STILL RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE
EASTERLY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THE SHARPENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN 15-20 KT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH
THE INNER CHANNELS ON SATURDAY BUT DO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIND THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS OBSERVED IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE NCNTRL PAC FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BY SAT...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL MOVE N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SUN. AS THIS
TAKES PLACE...A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SERN AK. IN ADDITION TO HAZARDOUS MARINE WINDS...SELY GUSTS
FROM 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES...AS WELL
AS THE KETCHIKAN AREA.

A MOIST AIRMASS /PW VALUES FROM 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH/ WILL SPREAD N
TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE WITH THE FRONT...AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MON NIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SRN
AREAS...AND POTENTIALLY WET HEAVY SNOW OVER HYDER SUN-SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR WINTER STORM
WATCH ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NNW WILL TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN THE
WET WEATHER DURING PART OF TUE...BUT THIS BREAK WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED. WARM AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD N WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH AN ECMWF/NAM/GFS/INHERITED BLEND
THROUGH 00Z TUE...FOLLOWED BY WPC THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST WAS ALSO REFRESHED WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-043-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-051-053.
&&

$$

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK69 PAFG 052250
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE.
LARGE BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX FROM ESSENTIALLY WELL WEST OF
KAMCHATKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC CENTERED NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WITH
WEAK CONNECTION TO RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA.

BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE FROM WELL SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND CONNECT WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NORTH ARCTIC ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CIRCULATE THE MUCH COLDER AIR DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PORTION
OF THE RIDGE.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH THE CONFLUENCE BEING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE ARCTIC COAST.

A COUPLE OF WEAK WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONTS ARE SWEEPING NORTH
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THEY ARE PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT BUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 052250
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE.
LARGE BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX FROM ESSENTIALLY WELL WEST OF
KAMCHATKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC CENTERED NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WITH
WEAK CONNECTION TO RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA.

BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE FROM WELL SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND CONNECT WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NORTH ARCTIC ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CIRCULATE THE MUCH COLDER AIR DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PORTION
OF THE RIDGE.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH THE CONFLUENCE BEING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE ARCTIC COAST.

A COUPLE OF WEAK WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONTS ARE SWEEPING NORTH
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THEY ARE PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT BUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 052250
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE.
LARGE BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX FROM ESSENTIALLY WELL WEST OF
KAMCHATKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC CENTERED NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WITH
WEAK CONNECTION TO RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA.

BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE FROM WELL SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND CONNECT WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NORTH ARCTIC ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CIRCULATE THE MUCH COLDER AIR DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PORTION
OF THE RIDGE.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH THE CONFLUENCE BEING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE ARCTIC COAST.

A COUPLE OF WEAK WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONTS ARE SWEEPING NORTH
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THEY ARE PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT BUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16



000
FXAK69 PAFG 051510
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
610 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC WILL
REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL EXTEND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MEET A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE YUKON OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW IN
BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS A 989 MB LOW BY
3AM SATURDAY...TO THE BERING STRAIGHT BY 3PM SATURDAY..AND TO
POINT HOPE BY 3AM SUNDAY. AREAS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN
IN THAT DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE. MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS PATTERN WELL WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THEM. AGAIN USED GFS FOR THE FINER POINTS TODAY THOUGH.

NOTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THIS GRADIENT IS PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPE...OVER INTERIOR SUMMITS...AND LOCALLY IN DRAINAGES OUT
WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN TODAY FOR THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE...ALLEVIATING WIND ADVISORIES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS HOWEVER WILL STAY UP OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT DOES STAY TIGHT THERE.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR FAIRBANKS. TOMORROW
MORNING CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BORDERLINE MFVR CONDITIONS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.
&&

$$

BJB FEB 16




000
FXAK67 PAJK 051504
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
MOVING INTO CANADA. THERE ARE OPEN CELL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL AREAS.
THE DEPARTING LOW IS STILL PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW NEAR HYDER AS SEEN
BY CAMERAS THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG AS TEMPS WILL WARM AS THE WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE THE CHANGE
OVER. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED DUE TO THE CHANGE OVER.

THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS, COOLER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THE OPEN CELL SHOWERS
MOVE INLAND WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF SEEING NO MUCH IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING. THERE
IS CAA OVER THE AREA SO THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF SEAK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH TO
2 INCHES. THE BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL COME OVERNIGHT WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY BUT AS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INNER CHANNELS BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO RANGE FROM 20 KT IN NORTHERN LYNN TO 15 KT IN
STEPHENS PASSAGE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS LESS THAN
15 KT. THERE ARE STILL SOME HIGH SEAS OVER THE GULF WITH A SW
SWELL. SO THERE ARE SEA HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE OF THE INNER CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY REMAINS THE BREAK DAY AS THE OLDER SYSTEMS
MOVES EAST OR IS PUSHED INLAND BY THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE STRONG
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE... ALTHOUGH A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF 150 WEST AFTER DEEPENING TO NEAR 960 MB
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT BAND WILL BE ARCHING
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW PATTERN WILL MOVE THIS TRIPLE POINT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
WARM PUSH TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REGION WITH TRIPLE POINT.
925MB (ABOUT 3000 FT) TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 5C EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ALSO WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE GULF TO THE HAIDA GWAII REGION IS A BAND
OF 40 TO 45 KT WINDS LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY ALSO MOVING
NORTHWARD. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS THAT
MAY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES OR POTENTIALLY A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT REVIEW TO SEE IF THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THAT WILL LEAD TO MORE STRONGER WORDING.

WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ANOTHER
BURST OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND THE TRAILING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TO THE PANHANDLE. THE SOURCE REGION IS THE MID TROPICS SO A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THE LONG RANGE SOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK HAS A
COMBINATION OF A DEEP LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS
FRONTAL BAND AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THERE IS A GENERAL LARGE SCALE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TO WESTERN GULF FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF THE
WAVES ASSOCIATED HAS A LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...THE STRONG 960 MB LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY TO SUNDAY WILL HELP TO
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT SEA STATE FROM WINDS AND SWELLS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SEAS OF 22 TO 27 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OF THE
CENTRAL GULF WHILE NEAR 20 FEET ARE APPROACHING THE COAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043-051>053.
&&

$$

ABJ/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK68 PAFC 051432
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE SCALE REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS VERY MUCH
THE SAME THIS MORNING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A POWERFUL NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM...A STOUT NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND A BROAD ALEUTIAN LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. REGIONS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAIN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
AND NORTHERN CANADA...WITH WARM WEDGES OF AIR CONTINUING TO PUMMEL
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS POWERFUL LOWS UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NORTH PAC JET BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER ONE OF
THESE FORMERLY STORM-FORCE LOWS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE REGION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A SUPPLY OF SIBERIAN ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
AREA.

RADAR DEPICTS A RATHER BROAD REGION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE GULF COAST IN SOUTHEAST FLOW...WITH MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER COLD BAY. WITH TIME...THE
GENERAL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INLAND
LOCATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DEEP INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DEEP STORM-FORCE
LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE THEY ARE STRUGGLING IS WITH SMALLER SCALE
FRONTS AND LOWS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH A FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE UP COOK INLET
TODAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND ORIENTATION...WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALL ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA NEAR
COOK INLET UP INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. WHILE
BRIEF...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO POPULATED AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING RUSH HOUR
TRAFFIC. WHILE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED...THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIOD
OF BRIEF MODERATE SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ALL THE MODELS
HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS...SO A BLEND OF ALL OF THEM WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A GENERAL
BLEND TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WAS FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER FRONT THAT IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE TODAY AND MOVE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REACH THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATANUSKA/SUSITNA
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE INITIAL WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING RATHER FAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE WELL
INLAND TONIGHT AND BREAK APART. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT-MAX WILL PUSH
INTO KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT WILL THEN BREAK APART WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRAIL THE VORT-MAX THE ENTIRE
TIME...MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SEWARD AROUND NOON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LEADING FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IMPACTING BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING...BRINGING AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE. PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ZONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ISLAND AREAS AND PENINSULA
OF THE BERING REGION. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FREQUENTLY
BELOW A MILE WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A CHANGE IN WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BEFORE ALSO DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TONIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
SYSTEM NEAR THE AKPEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO BRISTOL
BAY...LEAVING MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUN THROUGH THU)...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF AK OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT INTO THE COAST SUN
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO MANY OF THOSE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION. WE DID INCREASE THE WINDS ALONG IT TO MAXIMUM GALES
WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
STRONGER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER STORM
FORCE FRONT ALONG THE COAST.

A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA CONTINUES TO STAY
ANCHORED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE AN AXIS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES FOR TWO CLOSED LOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS GENERAL PATTERN KEEPS A WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND COASTS AS RIDGING
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST AND AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS 132 150 155 170 172 176 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH/MSO




000
FXAK68 PAFC 051432
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE SCALE REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS VERY MUCH
THE SAME THIS MORNING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A POWERFUL NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM...A STOUT NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND A BROAD ALEUTIAN LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. REGIONS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAIN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
AND NORTHERN CANADA...WITH WARM WEDGES OF AIR CONTINUING TO PUMMEL
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS POWERFUL LOWS UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NORTH PAC JET BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER ONE OF
THESE FORMERLY STORM-FORCE LOWS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE REGION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A SUPPLY OF SIBERIAN ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
AREA.

RADAR DEPICTS A RATHER BROAD REGION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE GULF COAST IN SOUTHEAST FLOW...WITH MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER COLD BAY. WITH TIME...THE
GENERAL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INLAND
LOCATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DEEP INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DEEP STORM-FORCE
LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE THEY ARE STRUGGLING IS WITH SMALLER SCALE
FRONTS AND LOWS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH A FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE UP COOK INLET
TODAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND ORIENTATION...WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALL ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA NEAR
COOK INLET UP INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. WHILE
BRIEF...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO POPULATED AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING RUSH HOUR
TRAFFIC. WHILE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED...THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIOD
OF BRIEF MODERATE SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ALL THE MODELS
HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS...SO A BLEND OF ALL OF THEM WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A GENERAL
BLEND TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WAS FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER FRONT THAT IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE TODAY AND MOVE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REACH THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATANUSKA/SUSITNA
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE INITIAL WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING RATHER FAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE WELL
INLAND TONIGHT AND BREAK APART. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT-MAX WILL PUSH
INTO KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT WILL THEN BREAK APART WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRAIL THE VORT-MAX THE ENTIRE
TIME...MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SEWARD AROUND NOON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LEADING FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IMPACTING BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING...BRINGING AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE. PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ZONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ISLAND AREAS AND PENINSULA
OF THE BERING REGION. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FREQUENTLY
BELOW A MILE WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A CHANGE IN WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BEFORE ALSO DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TONIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
SYSTEM NEAR THE AKPEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO BRISTOL
BAY...LEAVING MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUN THROUGH THU)...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF AK OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT INTO THE COAST SUN
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO MANY OF THOSE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION. WE DID INCREASE THE WINDS ALONG IT TO MAXIMUM GALES
WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
STRONGER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER STORM
FORCE FRONT ALONG THE COAST.

A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA CONTINUES TO STAY
ANCHORED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE AN AXIS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES FOR TWO CLOSED LOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS GENERAL PATTERN KEEPS A WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND COASTS AS RIDGING
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST AND AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS 132 150 155 170 172 176 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH/MSO



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