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000
FXAK69 PAFG 222337
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 PM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHING TO NEAR POINT LAY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO ABOUT JUST
EAST OF BARROW BY WED MORNING BEFORE BEING TURNED AWAY BY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BEING SENT BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BERING
STRAIT BY THU MORNING. ON ITS RETURN TRIP THOUGH IT WILL NOT
SPREAD MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT THOUGH.

CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA IS SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER WHILE IT MAKES
ITS WAY TO NEAR BARROW.

A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER ZONE 213 AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER WED NIGHT AS THE LOW IN THE
BERING FILLS RAPIDLY AND THEN DISSIPATES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS AS MOISTURE COMES IN VIA SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF APR 14



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000
FXAK67 PAJK 222245
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AK GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE PRODUCING
WEAK GRADIENT. AN SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
IT EXTENDS TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVES FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO THESE CLEARING SKIES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAVE OF PRECIP
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS WEAK WAVE. THERE WILL BE LESS DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR
TOMORROW.

 ISSUE FOR WINDS TODAY IS THE NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY WIND FLOW V
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE JUNEAU WESTERLY
SEA BREEZE IS IN PHASE WITH THE FLOW PATTERN WHILE SKAGWAY
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE IS IN OPPOSITION. AT THIS TIME THE HIGH THIN
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WAS NOT ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THERE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AS THE SHORT WAVES TRACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BUT OVERALL SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR WEDNESDAY NOT EXPECTING ANY SEA BREEZE.

 MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE WITH THE TIMING OF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA WAVE. NAM WAS THE SLOWEST AND MORE OF AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM. ECMWF WAS MAINTAINED GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY SO REMAINED MODEL OF CHOICE. THERE WERE ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SO CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WERE LIMITED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS EXPANDS FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 12Z RUN
ECMWF AND NAM. THE RESULTANT CHANGES ARE SMALL AND MOSTLY COSMETIC
TOUCHES OVER PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS.

 SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BECOME ISOLATED ON THURSDAY AS THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO
EXPANDS NORTHWARD. DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING TREND WILL GRANT
THE PANHANDLE PLEASANT WEATHER ON THURSDAY. RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL PROMPT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT ON FRIDAY.

 MODEL SPREADS BECOME LARGER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF...BUT THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BLENDED THE 12Z RUN WPC SOLUTIONS OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE APPROACH
FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS.

 FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 250 MB JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT DEEP SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CURVE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TURN TO NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NEAR ZONAL FLOW TO MERIDIONAL...UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL BRING SOUTHEAST ALASKA A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ORIGINATING IN SUB-TROPICS. THIS CAN BE TRANSLATED FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASED
UNCERTAINTIES...PREDICTABLE SURFACE FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT BUT INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN








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000
FXAK68 PAFC 222121
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
121 PM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS SETTLED
OVER THE MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FOG WERE EVIDENT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TO WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. THERE WERE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE AK PEN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BRISK SOUTH TO EAST
WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES. A COUPLE
OF WEAK LOWS JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WERE PRODUCING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CHAIN.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE ON
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE INDICATING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SW AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY MOVING SHORT
WAVES COMING OUT OF CANADA AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND KICK OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
FRI. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THU AND FRI.
COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED
NIGHT...WITH SOME INTRUSION INTO COOK INLET WITH A WEAK SOUTH
PUSH FROM THE RIDGE IN THE GULF. KODIAK ISLAND WILL HAVE A BREAK
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FROM STEADY RAINS UNTIL NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RIDGING OVER SW ALASKA WILL SUPPRESS INTERIOR CONVECTION AND HOLD
THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AT BAY KEEPING
COASTAL REGIONS ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH WED. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE PROMISING THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRACKS NORTH AND WEAK TRIGGERING WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE EAST.
SO THINKING THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES SHOULD REMAIN BRISK THROUGH EARLY
WED BEFORE DIMINISHING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS... THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL SPIN
ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE THROUGH WED...WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND GALE FORCE WIND OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. WED NIGHT THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW ARRIVES WITH RAIN
SPREADING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI. AS THE LOW HEADS INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...IMPULSES MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK
WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EC...GFS...AND WPC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT THAT POINT AGREEMENT ENDS
WITH COMPLEX SOLUTIONS TO THE GULF LOW...AND EITHER A KAMCHATKA
LOW...OR A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN BERING. THE FORECAST
UTILIZES THE GFS THROUGH SAT...AND THEN DEFERS TO WPC AND ITS
WIDER ARRAY OF MODELS. THIS MAINTAINS A WEAKENING LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF...AND A KAMCHATKA LOW ON SUN THAT DIVES TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TUE. THE RESULT IS RAIN ON THE AKPEN AND
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIND AND A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW FOR THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY.
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

$$

RMC APR 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 221457
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
657 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT
IS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TODAY. THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS MORNING AND OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SURFACE...A 979 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF ATKA AND WEAKEN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO BANKS ISLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUE FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRYER CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS BARROW BY THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INTERIOR...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAP SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER. RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY.

FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUAL DRYING OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR TODAY.
RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

$$

APR 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 221314
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
514 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE FROM A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
DROPPING SW OUT OF THE YUKON WHILE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH
ARE FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BE LIFTING NW OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM MODIS AND VIIRS REVEAL SOME
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
YAKUTAT. THE FOG AROUND PRINCE OF WALES HAS PROVED TO BE DENSE IN
SOME PLACES AS HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK BOTH HAVE HAD VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. AS SUCH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK AREAS UNTIL 8 AM
WHEN THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES.

THE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER NICE FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGH INTO THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S FOR MOST PLACES. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH SOME HIGHER WINDS FROM SEA BREEZES
COULD CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA STARTS TO MOVE IN.

INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES NW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO BECOME A THREAT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE NORTH
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. IT WILL
NOT QUITE GET TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OBSERVED THE CLOSER TO THE COAST
MOUNTAINS YOU ARE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY START CLEARING AND DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOG FORMATION AGAIN THERE. AS SUCH I HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE WERE SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR THE INCOMING TROUGH. PRIMARILY WENT WITH
THE NAM AND SOME ECMWF FOR OVERALL UPDATES AS BOTH LOOKED TO HAVE
MORE OF THE CURRENT DETAILS. OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF A COMPACT MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED MORNING
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MODEST ASCENT/MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS /-30 TO -35C
AT H5/ WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED ON THU. MEANWHILE...A
DRY MIDLEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE EXITS N. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMPTED A BUMP UP IN THU DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR SRN AREAS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE UPPER WAVES IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE N INTO THE CWA FRI AND SAT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. NUDGED FRI HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THOSE EXPECTED ON THU DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS FORECAST FRI
THROUGH TUE. THUS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S ARE MAINTAINED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE GULF AND NERN PAC BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
WITH THIS LARGE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED
IMPULSES PINWHEELING NWD FROM THE TROUGH INTO SE AK. FOR THIS
REASON...WPC GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF WAS PRIMARILY
USED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.

&&

$$

EAL/GARNER






000
FXAK68 PAFC 221307
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING CONTINUES
TO BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
INTERIOR...YIELDING PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
STRATUS/FOG TO KODIAK ISLAND. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BERING SEA...KEEPING GENERALLY SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING...SPREADING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ALL
GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION FOR THE MAIN
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
MAINLAND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE BERING LOW CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MAINLY UTILIZED A GFS/EC SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE GFS LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
IN STORE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN UPPER WAVE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY. THIS WILL YIELD AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS
TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE. LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DIURNAL
PROCESSES...WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME
DRAINAGE WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
SOUTHWEST DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING
LOW WILL AFFECT THE AKPEN AND WESTERN CAPES THROUGH WED. ON THU THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY A
BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REACHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA ON FRI.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL SPIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
WED...WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND
GALE FORCE WIND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WED NIGHT THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW ARRIVES WITH RAIN SPREADING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH FRI. AS THE LOW HEADS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA IMPULSES
MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EC...GFS...AND WPC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT THAT POINT AGREEMENT ENDS
WITH COMPLEX SOLUTIONS TO THE GULF LOW...AND EITHER A KAMCHATKA
LOW...OR A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN BERING. THE FORECAST
UTILIZES THE GFS THROUGH SAT...AND THEN DEFERS TO WPC AND ITS
WIDER ARRAY OF MODELS. THIS MAINTAINS A WEAKENING LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF...AND A KAMCHATKA LOW ON SUN THAT DIVES TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TUE. THE RESULT IS RAIN ON THE AKPEN AND
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIND AND A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW FOR THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 176 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

CB/DS APR 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 220030
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION BROUGHT GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. GUSTY GAP FLOWS WERE PRESENT
ALONG THE NORTH GULF AND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH
SOME FOG OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

OUT WEST A 970S LOW COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WAS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA...EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERING TO OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. GALE FORCE EAST TO SE WINDS
WERE EVIDENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. FELL WAS
EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH SNOW OR A MIX NEAR THE PRIBILOFS. STRATUS AND FOG
WAS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY
COAST AND DELTA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE EAST. OUT WEST...HAVE SIMILAR HANDLING OF
THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. THE
NEXT COMPLEX TO APPROACH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY APPEAR
TO BE BEST HANDLED BY THE GFS/EC.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST
TUE NIGHT. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WAVES MOVES WEST OUT OF CANADA TO ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS
PATTERN TO BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATE
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT. STABILITY INDICES WOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER COULD
INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND DETRACT FROM THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA TRACKS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR WORKS ITS WAY WESTWARD...AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO COASTAL BRISTOL
BAY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND EXPERIENCE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PRIBILOFS AND AKPEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST WED MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH MID WEEK LEAVING THE
REGION CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT THE NEXT
ALEUTIAN LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY KEEPING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN MAINLAND DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. THE GULF COAST ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS WITH A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS FIRST APPEARANCE
OF THE SEASON LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING IN
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHERWISE
DRY AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 173 176 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

$$


RMC/TP APR 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 212350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING REMNANTS
OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT PULLS OFF THE THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A MID LEVEL
LOW ROTATING OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE WILL KEEP 500 MB
VORTICITY OVER THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN GULF ALONG WITH THE 500 MB VORTICITY PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOSTLY
PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR
BREAKS WHICH INCREASED DAY TIME HEATING WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID 50S. THE HEATING AND UNSTABLE RISING AIR MASS PRODUCING
AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT THEN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AK GULF TUE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE ON TUE WITH ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA JUST REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GETTING WEAK SEA BREEZE. AS THE GULF LOW MOVES OFF
AND THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES IN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INNER CHANNELS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY DUE TO THE WEAK GRADIENT BUT THERE WILL BE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AS
THE WEAK BRITISH COLUMBIA WAVE MOVES IN. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH WEAK GRADIENTS AND LIGHT 850 MB WINDS. ANY
SEE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE EVEN WITH DAY TIME
HEATING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTIONS DUE TO SUCH WEAK
FORCING MECHANISMS AND WHICH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL WIN OUT. EVEN
THOUGH THERE ARE CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT THINK THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED PRECIP WITH EITHER DRY OUT THIS EVENING TO LIMIT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR FOG FORMATION, AND THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT AND FOR DEVELOPMENT.

 MODEL WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT
THERE WERE DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAVE MOVING IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND OTHER WEAK SURFACE FEATURES. LEANED MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF/NAM
BLEND WITH SOME GFS ADDED FOR POP FIELDS. CHANGES WERE MINOR,
MOSTLY DEALING WITH LOCAL WIND EFFECTS WHERE SYNOPTIC FLOW WAS
EITHER ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OR OVER CAME IT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THERE STILL IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE NEWER MODEL RUNS THOUGH ARE STARTING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. BESIDES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE A VERY NICE SPRING WEEK WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN TO
ABOVE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR HIGHS WITH LOW NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE JET REMAINING AROUND 50N. THE JET WILL BEING TO SLIDE BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND WITH THAT START TO
TRACK WEATHER SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF. SO WITH THAT SAID POPS START
TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AS THE EC IS DRIER
THAN THE GFS. THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE
EXTEND SO THERE IS JUST A CHANCE OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTH AT THIS TIME.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

PRB/ABJ






000
FXAK69 PAFG 212307
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME STEP...THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ARE AGREEING MORE BUT THE NAM
BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE WEST COAST AROUND THE PERIMETER OF
THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE UPPER LOW AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DROPS
IT BACK DOWN SOUTH TO NEAR POINT HOPE BY EARLY THU MORNING.

THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST COAST WILL BE THE LAST
OF THE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS THROUGH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE END OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO BE THE EXTENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF ON THE WEST COAST LATE TUE AS WELL
AS THE ARCTIC COAST. THE LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS WILL FILL AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUAL DRYING OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. RH
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE TEENS TO MID 30S THROUGH THE
WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF APR 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 211358
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
558 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...CURRENTLY A 546 DAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA PROVIDING
FOR PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD CAP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FORM
SIBERIA TO WRANGEL ISLAND TO BANKS ISLAND AND IS FORECASTED TO
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.

WEST COAST...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEING
ENHANCED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OVER THE BERING
STRAIT. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE COAST WILL HELP
DEVELOP AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH ONLY LIMITED BREAKS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

INTERIOR...THE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD CAP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE LOW 50S WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MODEL GUIDANCE...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT
ECWMF REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GFS
REMAINS TOO MOIST FOR THE INTERIOR WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT LATER
IN THE WEEK. ECMF HAS DRIER MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FIRE WEATHER... CONTINUED DRYING FOR THE INTERIOR. MIN RH VALUES
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

APR 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 211344
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...DEJA VU WITH ANOTHER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY OR FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SEEM TO BE WEAKER WITH THIS ONE BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT DID NOT
STRIKE WITH A PUNCH. LINCOLN ROCK GUSTED TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
IN CLARENCE STRAIT, AND THE STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN INSIDE
CHANNELS DID VERIFY. HYDABURG SHOWED SOME STRONG WINDS, AS WELL.
SITKA MAY SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS MORNING AS WELL, BUT THE
TROUGH IS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST BACK OUT INTO THE GULF.
SO WE HAVE NO STRONG WIND HEADLINES THIS MORNING...EVEN IN THE
FRONT`S PATH SUCH AS BARANOF ISLAND. NEITHER DID WE EXTEND THE
SOUTHERLIES FARTHER NORTH THAN GLACIER BAY/NORTHERN
CHATHAM/STEPHENS PASSAGE. WE DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE NEARLY AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY EITHER.

POP FIELDS WERE DIFFICULT TO READ. I WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING
TREND IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST,
BUT SOME DIVERGENCE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH EC GOING
A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST THAN GFS/NAM. ALSO...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A
COLD POOL OF AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
TROUGH. A THUNDERSTORM STRIKE WAS DETECTED IN SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THIS AREA LIFTS NORTHWARD. BUT ALSO, KEPT THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE...AS ONCE THIS CONVECTION HITS THE
PANHANDLE...THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFICATION. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
I AM SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE MORE SUN IN THE
MORNING THAN THE AFTERNOON.

THINGS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT TONIGHT. DECIDED ON A DRYING TREND
BUT INTERESTINGLY ECMWF SHOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE PUSHING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. GRAND COALITIONS OF MODEL POP
FIELDS DID NOT YIELD A SATISFACTORY RESULT, SO ERRED ON THE SIDE
OF DRYING SINCE EASTERLY WAVES ARE SOMETHING MODELS TYPICALLY
STRUGGLE WITH. BASED ON TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT, FORECASTED TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO WARM.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST A LITTLE GREY TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE SUN,
BUT PROBABLY NOT MANY SHOWERS, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME. SKY COVER
SHOULD BE FUN TO WATCH. USED A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT MODELS. ECMWF
FOR OVERALL PRESS/WIND. NAM, GFS, GEM, AND ECMWF FOR POP/QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE 00Z/21 SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED QUITE A BIT
OF VARIABILITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL-SCALE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCING NNWWD ALONG THE COAST OF SERN AK DURING MIDWEEK.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET WERE FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM
WERE SLOWER. GIVEN THIS VARIABILITY...DID NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO WINDS...BUT DID BUMP UP POPS AND CLOUDS SLIGHTLY FOR
THE NRN CWA WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AFTER THIS FEATURE EXITS N OF THE REGION ON FRI...THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DURING
MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED WITH A SRN GULF CYCLONE BY THE WEEKEND.
SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...AND FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER SE AK.
OTHERWISE...STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SAT-MON EITHER REMAINS S
OF THE CWA...OR ROTATES NWD OVER THE GULF. THUS...LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA. PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH WITH
THESE FEATURES ATTM...THUS MAINTAINED WPC POP GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/RH WERE REFRESHED WITH A MULTI-MOS
BLEND...CHANGES WERE MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
FOR POPS/WIND...AND AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>035-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

JWA/GARNER






000
FXAK68 PAFC 211323
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO KODIAK
ISLAND. OUT WEST...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AND
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BERING...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN GULF AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE OVER THE
MAINLAND. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE BERING AND SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
KODIAK ISLAND AS THE BERING FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DIURNAL PROCESSES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE ISOLATED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
THEN DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTENS OUT AND THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. BEHIND
THESE SHOWERS...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WORKS
ITS WAY WESTWARD...AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO COASTAL BRISTOL BAY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WEAKENING FRONT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH LEFT IN IT TO BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE PRIBILOFS AND AKPEN THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL SWITCH
OVER TO JUST RAIN AFTER A FEW HOURS...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE MINIMAL. WHILE THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COAST LATE TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH MID WEEK LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT THE NEXT
ALEUTIAN LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY KEEPING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN MAINLAND DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. THE GULF COAST ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS WITH A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS FIRST APPEARANCE
OF THE SEASON LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING IN
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHERWISE
DRY AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 173 176 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

CB/DEK APR 14




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