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000
FXAK67 PAJK 241425
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE INTERIOR OF
AK INTO THE NCNTRL PAC. A BROAD RIDGE EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NERN PAC...WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 140+
KT JET ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEAR HAIDA GWAII...AND THEN
DIVING SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE LOWER 48. N OF THE
JET...A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE FROM
SITKA...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE BY
MIDDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF
GUSTY WINDS IN KETCHIKAN THROUGH 15Z MON. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD
OF SLY GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CLARENCE STRAIT DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIRECTIONS OCCASIONALLY BECOMING VARIABLE
OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8-11 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLUME OF STRONG ASCENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND SUPPORTED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE
MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE GOING BACK TO A SHOWER REGIME BY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ONSHORE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...AS A MODEST INCREASE IN ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH...THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

.LONG TERM...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG WITH IT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING OFFSHORE WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SHOWERS FROM THE MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAIN COLDER AIR FROM THE ALASKA INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE JUST AS THE LAST FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING. THUS ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO ANGOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND UNIMPACTFUL.

CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THUS PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING OR PERHAPS LONGER ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WELL INTO THE
20S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND TO NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE REST. BEYOND WEDNESDAY A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD IMPEDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD AND SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING COMPLEX LOW
SETTLING IN THE BERING SEA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE ITS NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND WILL USHER MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE YUKON. THE COLD AIR WILL STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE THE CROSS-
BARRIER GRADIENT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEENS LIKELY FOR AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AWAY FROM WATER.
GRADIENTS OF 6 TO 7 MB BETWEEN SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU WILL DRIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND SIMILAR GRADIENTS
SPANNING STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL PUSH IT TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT. NOT
LOST IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS A DRY SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY THAT
WILL POTENTIALLY SEED A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

THE RIDGE AXIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ONCE AGAIN EXPOSING SOUTHEAST ALASKA PERHAPS TO A LITTLE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. THUS CLOUDS RETURN AND WE CANNOT
RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY
MIXED WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MODERATED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD GOING INTO THANKSGIVING, BUT DROPPING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO HOW/WHEN THE RIDGE INEVITABLY BREAKS DOWN.
NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NUDGE
TO ECMWF THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. REST OF FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-052-053.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 241425
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE INTERIOR OF
AK INTO THE NCNTRL PAC. A BROAD RIDGE EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NERN PAC...WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 140+
KT JET ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEAR HAIDA GWAII...AND THEN
DIVING SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE LOWER 48. N OF THE
JET...A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE FROM
SITKA...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE BY
MIDDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF
GUSTY WINDS IN KETCHIKAN THROUGH 15Z MON. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD
OF SLY GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CLARENCE STRAIT DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIRECTIONS OCCASIONALLY BECOMING VARIABLE
OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8-11 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLUME OF STRONG ASCENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND SUPPORTED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE
MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE GOING BACK TO A SHOWER REGIME BY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ONSHORE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...AS A MODEST INCREASE IN ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH...THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

.LONG TERM...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG WITH IT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING OFFSHORE WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SHOWERS FROM THE MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAIN COLDER AIR FROM THE ALASKA INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE JUST AS THE LAST FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING. THUS ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO ANGOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND UNIMPACTFUL.

CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THUS PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING OR PERHAPS LONGER ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WELL INTO THE
20S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND TO NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE REST. BEYOND WEDNESDAY A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD IMPEDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD AND SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING COMPLEX LOW
SETTLING IN THE BERING SEA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE ITS NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND WILL USHER MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE YUKON. THE COLD AIR WILL STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE THE CROSS-
BARRIER GRADIENT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEENS LIKELY FOR AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AWAY FROM WATER.
GRADIENTS OF 6 TO 7 MB BETWEEN SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU WILL DRIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND SIMILAR GRADIENTS
SPANNING STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL PUSH IT TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT. NOT
LOST IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS A DRY SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY THAT
WILL POTENTIALLY SEED A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

THE RIDGE AXIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ONCE AGAIN EXPOSING SOUTHEAST ALASKA PERHAPS TO A LITTLE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. THUS CLOUDS RETURN AND WE CANNOT
RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY
MIXED WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MODERATED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD GOING INTO THANKSGIVING, BUT DROPPING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO HOW/WHEN THE RIDGE INEVITABLY BREAKS DOWN.
NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NUDGE
TO ECMWF THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. REST OF FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-052-053.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 241337
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 997 MB LOW CURRENTLY 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK ISLAND IS
SLOWLY MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE MAINLAND FROM
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS RIDGING IS GETTING AMPLIFIED IN PART
DUE TO A SEASONABLY STRONG AND QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITTING APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY BETWEEN ATTU AND THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA OF RUSSIA. NUMEROUS VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A VERY ACTIVE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION ...
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WELL IN
DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MAINLAND OF
ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS LIES WITH THE ACTIVE JET
STREAK PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BROAD LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING AS IT CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID-WEEK PERIOD. MODELS DEPICT A PAIR OF
LOWS MOVING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
BERING SEA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MERGING INTO THE PARENT
LOW CENTER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WAS PREFERRED SLIGHTLY OVER THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 2)...
THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
TODAY AS AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND BERING SEA HELPS KICK THE LOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. AS A RESULT THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL START TO BREAK UP THE PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION.

MEANWHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
FROM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL DEEPEN
MOISTURE FROM ANCHORAGE UP TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND EASTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY...PLACES WHICH HAVE REMAINED QUITE DRY UNDER THE
CURRENT FLOW. ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
EVENT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH
A BUILDING UPSTREAM RIDGE. THERE IS A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE
BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. SINCE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS JUST RECENTLY LOCKED IN TO
THIS FEATURE AND IT IS ON THE WEAK SIDE WILL GENERALLY STICK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES. STABLE CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ALSO FAVORS FORMATION OF FOG IN COOK
INLET. THIS ALWAYS MAKES FOR CHALLENGING SKY AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. FARTHER EAST WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO WEAK OUTFLOW
WINDS (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST/PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT)...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT)...
A FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING GUSTY GALE
WINDS AND RAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND NORTHERN BERING TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MIXED SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PARENT LOW STEERS THE NEXT TWO LOW CENTERS
TOWARD THE WESTERN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BY WED OVER MAINLAND AK AND THE GULF...WITH A
CUT-OFF LOW EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH OVER THE BERING. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO FRI WHEN A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS. THE
BERING CUT-OFF LOW CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE...TRANSFORMING THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN INTO ONE WITH SHORTER WAVES MOVING PROGRESSIVELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WAVES MOVING THROUGH
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW...TIMING IS THE MAIN ISSUE SAT THROUGH MON.

THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY
BENEATH THE RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MAY
AFFECT THE COAST BY SUN. THE FORECAST FOR THE BERING IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. IT UTILIZES A BLEND OF THE
GFS...EC..AND WPC GUIDANCE...AND HAS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER BERING LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BERING
WED THROUGH FRI. THIS LOW WILL BRING RAIN WITH GALES AND THEN
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS BEFORE IT CROSSES
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND DISSIPATES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ON SAT.
A NEW LOW FROM JAPAN WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AND
SUN AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE CHAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 173 174 175 176 177 178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS


  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 241324
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
424 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW FOR PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE WEST COAST. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG RANGE
MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE 993 MB STACKED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY TUESDAY AS A
WEAK 1008 MB LOW.

WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING MOVED
ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK 1006 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST WILL SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL DROP SOUTH AND MERGE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE COMBINED FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR AS IT MOVES
EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. AN
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT OBSERVING STATIONS
IN ZONE 201 OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF WAINWRIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES EAST. OTHERWISE...WEATHER ON THE
NORTH SLOPE WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES FOR THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.

WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION PARTS OF THE WEST COAST BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE OVER
INLAND ZONE 214 AND WESTERN ZONE 215 IS SUPPORTIVE FOR A PERIOD
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 10 PM TUESDAY AND NOON WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND NEED FOR ANY
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
FROM RUBY...SHUNGNAK TO GALENA...INDIAN MOUNTAIN AND BETTLES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH LAKE
MINCHUMINA...NENANA...LIVENGOOD...FAIRBANKS...FORT YUKON AND THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BETWEEN 4AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. AFTER THIS
EVENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

LTH NOV 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 241324
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
424 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW FOR PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE WEST COAST. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG RANGE
MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE 993 MB STACKED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY TUESDAY AS A
WEAK 1008 MB LOW.

WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING MOVED
ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK 1006 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST WILL SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL DROP SOUTH AND MERGE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE COMBINED FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR AS IT MOVES
EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. AN
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT OBSERVING STATIONS
IN ZONE 201 OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF WAINWRIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES EAST. OTHERWISE...WEATHER ON THE
NORTH SLOPE WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES FOR THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.

WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION PARTS OF THE WEST COAST BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE OVER
INLAND ZONE 214 AND WESTERN ZONE 215 IS SUPPORTIVE FOR A PERIOD
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 10 PM TUESDAY AND NOON WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND NEED FOR ANY
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
FROM RUBY...SHUNGNAK TO GALENA...INDIAN MOUNTAIN AND BETTLES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH LAKE
MINCHUMINA...NENANA...LIVENGOOD...FAIRBANKS...FORT YUKON AND THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BETWEEN 4AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. AFTER THIS
EVENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

LTH NOV 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 240723 AAA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1021 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE
SPORADIC AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EASTWARD...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THOMPSON PASS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL
TRACK EAST TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA
THROUGH BROAD PASS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 240723 AAA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1021 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE
SPORADIC AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EASTWARD...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THOMPSON PASS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL
TRACK EAST TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA
THROUGH BROAD PASS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 240723 AAA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1021 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE
SPORADIC AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EASTWARD...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THOMPSON PASS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL
TRACK EAST TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA
THROUGH BROAD PASS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 240723 AAA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1021 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE
SPORADIC AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EASTWARD...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THOMPSON PASS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL
TRACK EAST TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA
THROUGH BROAD PASS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 240721 AAA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1021 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE
SPORADIC AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EASTWARD...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THOMPSON PASS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL
TRACK EAST TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA
THROUGH BROAD PASS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LONG TERM...



000
FXAK68 PAFC 240721 AAA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1021 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE
SPORADIC AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EASTWARD...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THOMPSON PASS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL
TRACK EAST TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA
THROUGH BROAD PASS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LONG TERM...




000
FXAK68 PAFC 240131
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
431 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR SUPPORTED BY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER UPPER WAVES (ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING) WHICH TEMPORARILY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
(TO WEAKEN DOWNSLOPING). PINPOINTING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP IS VERY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL IN
THIS SITUATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST SIX HOURS IS LOW.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS CONTINUED A STEADY COOLING
TREND. THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAINS ALL RAIN...BUT INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAVE SEEN SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WITH VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AS PER THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING ANYTHING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGE WILL FALL AS SNOW.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA EXITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BECOMES WESTERLY. PRECIP WILL THEN
BECOME FAVORED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS WHILE PRECIP IN
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK68 PAFC 240131
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
431 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR SUPPORTED BY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER UPPER WAVES (ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING) WHICH TEMPORARILY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
(TO WEAKEN DOWNSLOPING). PINPOINTING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP IS VERY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL IN
THIS SITUATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST SIX HOURS IS LOW.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS CONTINUED A STEADY COOLING
TREND. THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAINS ALL RAIN...BUT INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAVE SEEN SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WITH VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AS PER THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING ANYTHING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGE WILL FALL AS SNOW.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA EXITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BECOMES WESTERLY. PRECIP WILL THEN
BECOME FAVORED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS WHILE PRECIP IN
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK68 PAFC 240131
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
431 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR SUPPORTED BY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER UPPER WAVES (ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING) WHICH TEMPORARILY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
(TO WEAKEN DOWNSLOPING). PINPOINTING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP IS VERY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL IN
THIS SITUATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST SIX HOURS IS LOW.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS CONTINUED A STEADY COOLING
TREND. THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAINS ALL RAIN...BUT INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAVE SEEN SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WITH VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AS PER THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING ANYTHING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGE WILL FALL AS SNOW.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA EXITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BECOMES WESTERLY. PRECIP WILL THEN
BECOME FAVORED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS WHILE PRECIP IN
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK68 PAFC 240131
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
431 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 980S MB LOW SE OF SAND POINT IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF AND AK PEN WITH MIXED SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS PRODUCED ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING. THE KING
SALMON NEXRAD SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN CONTINUE ALONG
THE WESTERN AK PEN AND EAST ALEUTIANS. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERLY GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION ...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
(TUE AFTERNOON) THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH ACCOMPANYING GALES AND RAIN ARE
SIMILAR AS WELL AS SHOWERS WITH WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE NIGHT. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NOW KEEP IT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE AOR. THE GFS/NAM/GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT WAS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LATER
RUNS WILL HOWEVER NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR SUPPORTED BY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER UPPER WAVES (ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING) WHICH TEMPORARILY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
(TO WEAKEN DOWNSLOPING). PINPOINTING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP IS VERY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL IN
THIS SITUATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST SIX HOURS IS LOW.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS CONTINUED A STEADY COOLING
TREND. THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAINS ALL RAIN...BUT INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAVE SEEN SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WITH VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AS PER THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING ANYTHING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGE WILL FALL AS SNOW.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA EXITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BECOMES WESTERLY. PRECIP WILL THEN
BECOME FAVORED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS WHILE PRECIP IN
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BECOMING SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT STRETCHES INTO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DILLINGHAM
AREA...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL EXISTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO CREATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND WEAK
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
GENERALLY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREAS. RIDGING WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AFTER A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS INTO THE AKPENN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DOMINATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A LOW COMPLEX WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THESE LOWS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WET WEATHER OVER THE
BERING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX LOW AS IT BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING...BUT QUICKEST WITH BRINGING FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION CONSOLIDATES THE LOW QUICKER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING...BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONTAL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST
WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN...AND WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION (ECMWF) REGARDING
THE LOW OUT WEST WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND....WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION (GFS)
DEAMPLIFIES THE RIDGE QUICKER AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK69 PAFG 240106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
406 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE OLD LOW SURFACE/ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL...WITH A SECOND WEAK CENTER ALOFT OVER NORTHWEST
MAINLAND ALASKA BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT CENTER. THIS ONE IN TURN
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BERING SEA DISCUSSED
BELOW. EXPECT A SMALL...ABOUT 1012 MB...SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
NEAR DEMARCATION POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES INTO PLACE TO SUPPORT IT.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS APPEAR AS WE GET CLOSER
TO MID-WEEK. THE 12Z GFS DEPARTED NOTICEABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A FAIRLY DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON THE TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA
SYSTEM...THEN MOVING IT CYCLONICALLY NORTHEAST...NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING SEA. THOUGH THE 981 MB CENTER DID PASS
WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE IT TURNED
NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNED NORTHWEST AND BEGAN TO WEAKEN...THE
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WOULD GIVE AT LEAST ZONES 211...
213...AND 214 A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. THE 18Z GFS RUN
IS SIMILAR...THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP...IT IS
SOMEWHAT MORE GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT NAM
RUN IS EVEN DEEPER...AND RECENT GFS RUNS ARE DEFINITELY ON THE
DEEP END OF THE SREF SPECTRUM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE. THE ECMF
KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA...IT SHOWS
A SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...BUT MOVES IT MORE
EASTERLY...CUTS IT OFF...AND FILLS IT UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. WE HAVE COMPROMISED BY BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO
A MINIMUM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AREA 210 ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN 211...213...AND 214 TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

DJH NOV 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 240106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
406 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE OLD LOW SURFACE/ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL...WITH A SECOND WEAK CENTER ALOFT OVER NORTHWEST
MAINLAND ALASKA BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT CENTER. THIS ONE IN TURN
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BERING SEA DISCUSSED
BELOW. EXPECT A SMALL...ABOUT 1012 MB...SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
NEAR DEMARCATION POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES INTO PLACE TO SUPPORT IT.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS APPEAR AS WE GET CLOSER
TO MID-WEEK. THE 12Z GFS DEPARTED NOTICEABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A FAIRLY DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON THE TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA
SYSTEM...THEN MOVING IT CYCLONICALLY NORTHEAST...NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING SEA. THOUGH THE 981 MB CENTER DID PASS
WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE IT TURNED
NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNED NORTHWEST AND BEGAN TO WEAKEN...THE
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WOULD GIVE AT LEAST ZONES 211...
213...AND 214 A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. THE 18Z GFS RUN
IS SIMILAR...THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP...IT IS
SOMEWHAT MORE GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT NAM
RUN IS EVEN DEEPER...AND RECENT GFS RUNS ARE DEFINITELY ON THE
DEEP END OF THE SREF SPECTRUM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE. THE ECMF
KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA...IT SHOWS
A SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...BUT MOVES IT MORE
EASTERLY...CUTS IT OFF...AND FILLS IT UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. WE HAVE COMPROMISED BY BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO
A MINIMUM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AREA 210 ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN 211...213...AND 214 TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

DJH NOV 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 240050
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OFF PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND BY 24/12Z MON. OPS MODELS HAVE COME BACK INTO
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW AROUND 1003 MB WILL BE OFF DALL ISL BY
24/12Z. THE 23/12Z AK-GFS-40 WAS PREFERRED FOR THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND THE 15Z SREF POPS WERE USED. MODERATED QPF USING THE GFS AND
TEMPS/THICKNESS INDICATED THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
LOWLANDS SO INDICATED SNOW ONLY FOR WHITE PASS AND THE UPPER
HAINES HIGHWAY AND UPPER GLACIER BAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SHOW LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS WITH MINS FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING.
THIS MAKES THE PTYPE FCST MORE CHALLENGING. GIVEN THAT SHOWERS ARE
DIMINISHING...MOST PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO
WED.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRIER WX AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
AK. EARLY ANALYSIS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OUTFLOW WINDS
DEVELOPING WED INTO THU. FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS RANGE AROUND
4-5MB BETWEEN PAGY/PAJN WED NIGHT INTO THU. THEREFORE...INCREASED
WINDS ACROSS LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET TO STRONG SCA/GALES. OTHER
CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE TEMPS. GFS MOS
SHOWS LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EC MOS SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPS...HOWEVER EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORT THE COOLER TEMPS.
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS SE AK LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
TRENDING TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MOS 50TH PERCENTILE TEMPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN DETERIORATES TO BELOW AVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HARD TO GET RID OF SOME IFR FOG THIS MORNING DUE TO
TRAPPED MOISTURE AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS SO FAR TODAY HAVE
DROPPED CONDS TO MFVR BOTH CIGS/VSBY PARTICULARLY PAYA PASI PAKT.
AFTERNOON TAFS WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AT THE LAST MINUTE
AND WILL INDICATE LOWER TREND IN CONDS LATER TONITE IF FOR NO
OTHER REASON THAN CLOSING DEW POINTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WIDESPREAD SWELL 8 TO 11
FT IN ALL OUTSIDE WATERS AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS MOVING UP TO DIXON ENTRANCE WENT NEAR GALE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR CLARENCE AND SUMNER. NORTHERLIES WILL
BEGIN INCREASING WED AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FORECAST
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUPPORT NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WED INTO
THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNINGS FREEZING LEVELS WERE 2000-3000FT WITH
MINOR LOWERING EXPECTED THROUGH MON. PRECIP TOTALS IN SOME OF THE
MORE RAINY LOCATIONS WILL BE 1-2 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-031-034>036-041-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-042-053.

&&

$$

JC/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 231449
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
SWRN B.C. THIS MORNING. ENHANCED AREA OF ASCENT ON ITS NRN
PERIPHERY SUPPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
KETCHIKAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT RATES ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AS THE WAVES MOVES E. FARTHER N...MINOR WAVES OF
ASCENT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE...AND
WILL YIELD BANDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS RANGING FROM 9-11 FEET ARE PRESENT OVER THE
OUTSIDE WATERS...AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE N PAC WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE NERN PAC INTO SWRN CANADA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE UPPER
HEIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING IN A WSWLY 300 MB JET STREAK
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 170 KT. A VORTICITY STREAMER WILL FORM
ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET AND AID IN MODEST SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SERN GULF TONIGHT. THE POSITION AND
ULTIMATE MAGNITUDE OF THIS LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE GEM
PRODUCES A DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION...THE GFS AND HI-RES ARW/NMM
ARE FARTHEST S AND MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP
A LOW THAT LIFTS NNE ALONG THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
NAM/EC ROUGHLY RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO GO WITH THEIR GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MARINE ZONES
41 AND 42 AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT. ATTM...EXPECT WIND GUSTS FOR
LAND ZONES 27 AND 28 TO FALL SHY OF STRONG WIND CRITERIA. IN
ADDITION...A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL PUSH ONSHORE
AND FILL SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTH/CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING.
THE RESULTING GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH WILL KEEP SOLID SMALL CRAFTS
GOING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AND MINIMUM SMALL CRAFT FOR SOUTHERN
CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAITS. IN ADDITION HIGH SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET
WILL PERSIST IN THE LOW`S WAKE FOR ZONES 41 AND 42 WITH WINDS
TURNING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. A TONGUE OF WARM AIR WILL
HAVE SWEPT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ASCENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL STRATIFORM PERHAPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS TO COVER ANY
INSTABILITY TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES SLOWLY DECREASE. AS A PROXY TO
MEASURE THE OVERALL LAYER TEMPERATURE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE, WE LOOK
FOR THICKNESSES, OR TEMPERATURES, LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. AT THIS TIME, MODEL THICKNESSES ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SNOW. SINCE SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING
THE SAME PERIOD AS THICKNESSES WILL BE FALLING, DESPITE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING JUST BELOW FREEZING, THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED BETWEEN SHOWERS, AND MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, MONDAY MORNING
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. CONFIDENCE
GROWS FOR SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BEGIN TO CROSS A 1290-METER
RUBICON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT QUICKLY. RIGHT NOW THE
HOLIDAY LOOKS DRY AND CLOUDS LOOK TO PART. HOWEVER, THIS USUALLY
MEANS FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE WE HAVE
DROPPED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EVEN TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COAST. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF IN SOME FORM OR
ANOTHER THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND WHEN PERHAPS A BREAKDOWN BEGINS
TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUSLY QUICK TO BREAK DOWN
REX BLOCKS. SO CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. ONE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION ADVOCATED BY THE ECMWF LOOKS VERY INTERESTING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK: A SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SPAWN A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. WITH COLDER AIR HAVING ALREADY SETTLED, A SIGNATURE
SUCH AS THIS USUALLY MEANS SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, BUT THIS IS ONE OF MANY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AND WILL
LIKELY BE GONE IN THE MODEL`S NEXT RUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY WITH A DRYING/COOLING TREND. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO FALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 231449
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
SWRN B.C. THIS MORNING. ENHANCED AREA OF ASCENT ON ITS NRN
PERIPHERY SUPPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
KETCHIKAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT RATES ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AS THE WAVES MOVES E. FARTHER N...MINOR WAVES OF
ASCENT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE...AND
WILL YIELD BANDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS RANGING FROM 9-11 FEET ARE PRESENT OVER THE
OUTSIDE WATERS...AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE N PAC WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE NERN PAC INTO SWRN CANADA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE UPPER
HEIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING IN A WSWLY 300 MB JET STREAK
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 170 KT. A VORTICITY STREAMER WILL FORM
ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET AND AID IN MODEST SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SERN GULF TONIGHT. THE POSITION AND
ULTIMATE MAGNITUDE OF THIS LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE GEM
PRODUCES A DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION...THE GFS AND HI-RES ARW/NMM
ARE FARTHEST S AND MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP
A LOW THAT LIFTS NNE ALONG THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
NAM/EC ROUGHLY RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO GO WITH THEIR GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MARINE ZONES
41 AND 42 AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT. ATTM...EXPECT WIND GUSTS FOR
LAND ZONES 27 AND 28 TO FALL SHY OF STRONG WIND CRITERIA. IN
ADDITION...A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL PUSH ONSHORE
AND FILL SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTH/CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING.
THE RESULTING GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH WILL KEEP SOLID SMALL CRAFTS
GOING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AND MINIMUM SMALL CRAFT FOR SOUTHERN
CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAITS. IN ADDITION HIGH SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET
WILL PERSIST IN THE LOW`S WAKE FOR ZONES 41 AND 42 WITH WINDS
TURNING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. A TONGUE OF WARM AIR WILL
HAVE SWEPT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ASCENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL STRATIFORM PERHAPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS TO COVER ANY
INSTABILITY TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES SLOWLY DECREASE. AS A PROXY TO
MEASURE THE OVERALL LAYER TEMPERATURE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE, WE LOOK
FOR THICKNESSES, OR TEMPERATURES, LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. AT THIS TIME, MODEL THICKNESSES ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SNOW. SINCE SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING
THE SAME PERIOD AS THICKNESSES WILL BE FALLING, DESPITE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING JUST BELOW FREEZING, THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED BETWEEN SHOWERS, AND MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, MONDAY MORNING
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. CONFIDENCE
GROWS FOR SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BEGIN TO CROSS A 1290-METER
RUBICON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT QUICKLY. RIGHT NOW THE
HOLIDAY LOOKS DRY AND CLOUDS LOOK TO PART. HOWEVER, THIS USUALLY
MEANS FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE WE HAVE
DROPPED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EVEN TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COAST. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF IN SOME FORM OR
ANOTHER THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND WHEN PERHAPS A BREAKDOWN BEGINS
TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUSLY QUICK TO BREAK DOWN
REX BLOCKS. SO CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. ONE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION ADVOCATED BY THE ECMWF LOOKS VERY INTERESTING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK: A SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SPAWN A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. WITH COLDER AIR HAVING ALREADY SETTLED, A SIGNATURE
SUCH AS THIS USUALLY MEANS SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, BUT THIS IS ONE OF MANY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AND WILL
LIKELY BE GONE IN THE MODEL`S NEXT RUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY WITH A DRYING/COOLING TREND. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO FALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK68 PAFC 231324
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN VICINITY OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A FAIRLY
UNSTABLE REGIME TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION FROM SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

OUT WEST...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES MAKE UP THE GENERAL
RIDGINESS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KAMCHATKA IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. THEY ALL TAKE
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS OCCLUDED LOW AND DRIFT IT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAKING IT BROAD AND
DIFFUSE IN THE PROCESS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN ITS DEPICTION IN
THE GULF BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

OUT IN THE FAR WEST...THE KAMCHATKA LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND MATURE INTO A STRONG CYCLONE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF ATTU
THROUGH MON NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN CIRCLE BACK TOWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PARENT LOW AND MERGE WITH IT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NORTH AND
WEST OF ATTU.

THE IMPACT OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING LATE MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK WILL RESULT
IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRENGTHENING ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR SUPPORTED BY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER UPPER WAVES (ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING) WHICH TEMPORARILY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
(TO WEAKEN DOWNSLOPING). PINPOINTING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP IS VERY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL IN
THIS SITUATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST SIX HOURS IS LOW.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS CONTINUED A STEADY COOLING
TREND. THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAINS ALL RAIN...BUT INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAVE SEEN SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WITH VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AS PER THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING ANYTHING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGE WILL FALL AS SNOW.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA EXITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BECOMES WESTERLY. PRECIP WILL THEN
BECOME FAVORED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS WHILE PRECIP IN
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGE AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH...ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DILLINGHAM. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ALASKA
RANGE TODAY AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A SHORTWAVE
WESTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER SHIFTS EAST. THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BERING TODAY. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO CENTRAL BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
REMAINS STATIONARY AS THE LOW FILLS. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MID WEEK.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MUCH THE SAME TODAY AND WILL STILL BE
DEPENDENT ON A COMPLEX LOW SETTING UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
BERING SEA. A CURRENTLY DEVELOPING KAMCHATKA LOW WILL ANCHOR THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE SEVERAL COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP AND JOIN THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. THE FIRST WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS
BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS. ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS
BY WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CIRCULATION AND BRINGING MORE RAIN
AND WIND TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHILE SENDING THE FRONT FURTHER
EAST IN THE BERING SEA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT
THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN AND
KEEP THE SOUTHCENTRAL DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181.
         GALE 175 176 177 178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MTL



000
FXAK68 PAFC 231324
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN VICINITY OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A FAIRLY
UNSTABLE REGIME TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION FROM SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

OUT WEST...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES MAKE UP THE GENERAL
RIDGINESS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KAMCHATKA IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. THEY ALL TAKE
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS OCCLUDED LOW AND DRIFT IT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAKING IT BROAD AND
DIFFUSE IN THE PROCESS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN ITS DEPICTION IN
THE GULF BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

OUT IN THE FAR WEST...THE KAMCHATKA LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND MATURE INTO A STRONG CYCLONE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF ATTU
THROUGH MON NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN CIRCLE BACK TOWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PARENT LOW AND MERGE WITH IT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NORTH AND
WEST OF ATTU.

THE IMPACT OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING LATE MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK WILL RESULT
IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRENGTHENING ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR SUPPORTED BY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER UPPER WAVES (ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING) WHICH TEMPORARILY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
(TO WEAKEN DOWNSLOPING). PINPOINTING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP IS VERY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL IN
THIS SITUATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST SIX HOURS IS LOW.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS CONTINUED A STEADY COOLING
TREND. THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAINS ALL RAIN...BUT INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAVE SEEN SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WITH VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AS PER THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING ANYTHING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGE WILL FALL AS SNOW.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA EXITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BECOMES WESTERLY. PRECIP WILL THEN
BECOME FAVORED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS WHILE PRECIP IN
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGE AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH...ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DILLINGHAM. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ALASKA
RANGE TODAY AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A SHORTWAVE
WESTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER SHIFTS EAST. THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BERING TODAY. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO CENTRAL BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
REMAINS STATIONARY AS THE LOW FILLS. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MID WEEK.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MUCH THE SAME TODAY AND WILL STILL BE
DEPENDENT ON A COMPLEX LOW SETTING UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
BERING SEA. A CURRENTLY DEVELOPING KAMCHATKA LOW WILL ANCHOR THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE SEVERAL COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP AND JOIN THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. THE FIRST WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS
BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS. ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS
BY WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CIRCULATION AND BRINGING MORE RAIN
AND WIND TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHILE SENDING THE FRONT FURTHER
EAST IN THE BERING SEA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING THAT
THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE GULF WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN AND
KEEP THE SOUTHCENTRAL DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181.
         GALE 175 176 177 178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK69 PAFG 231318
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
418 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A RETURN  TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS DURING THE SHORT AND MID TERM ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT. LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
A NUDGE OF A MODEL BLEND TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WILL BE USED.

THE EVER PRESENT STACKED LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES
TO  GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS BANKS ISLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE THIS
MORNING. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED LOW WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE KOYUKUK VALLEY TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COME AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA DROPS SOUTH AND OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WILL ROTATE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING  THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN OVERALL STRENGTH AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE.

NORTH SLOPE...NOT MUCH GOING ON UP ON THE NORTH SLOPE. WINDS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH WIND
SPEEDS 25 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
TODAY...BUT WILL KEEP STRONG WIND HEADLINE GOING FOR ZONE 204.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CLOUDY
SKIES RETURN WHEN A WEAK TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND MOVES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...THE COOL DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...SETTLING INTO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A CHANGE IN PACE MAY BE
IN THE OFFING MID WEEK WHEN AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
THE BERING MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY...THEN SPREADING NORTH
TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE PEDRO
DOME RADAR SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE FLURRIES
THAT WILL FIZZLE OUT THIS MORNING. FOR SNOW LOVERS...THERE IS A
GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE KOYUKUK VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY...BRINING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY. THINKING THAT THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AND OVER THE YUKON
UPLANDS AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH A FEW INCHES OF FRESH SNOW
POSSIBLE. NOT THINKING THAT ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

$$

LTH NOV 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 231318
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
418 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A RETURN  TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS DURING THE SHORT AND MID TERM ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT. LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
A NUDGE OF A MODEL BLEND TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WILL BE USED.

THE EVER PRESENT STACKED LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES
TO  GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS BANKS ISLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE THIS
MORNING. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED LOW WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE KOYUKUK VALLEY TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COME AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM
THE CHUKCHI SEA DROPS SOUTH AND OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WILL ROTATE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING  THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN OVERALL STRENGTH AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE.

NORTH SLOPE...NOT MUCH GOING ON UP ON THE NORTH SLOPE. WINDS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH WIND
SPEEDS 25 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
TODAY...BUT WILL KEEP STRONG WIND HEADLINE GOING FOR ZONE 204.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CLOUDY
SKIES RETURN WHEN A WEAK TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND MOVES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...THE COOL DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...SETTLING INTO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A CHANGE IN PACE MAY BE
IN THE OFFING MID WEEK WHEN AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
THE BERING MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY...THEN SPREADING NORTH
TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE PEDRO
DOME RADAR SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE FLURRIES
THAT WILL FIZZLE OUT THIS MORNING. FOR SNOW LOVERS...THERE IS A
GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE KOYUKUK VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY...BRINING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY. THINKING THAT THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AND OVER THE YUKON
UPLANDS AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...WITH A FEW INCHES OF FRESH SNOW
POSSIBLE. NOT THINKING THAT ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

$$

LTH NOV 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 230650
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
950 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATE (945 PM)...

SATELLITE TRENDS SEEM TO BE CORROBORATING 00Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
TRENDS IN DEPICTING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW
TO IMPACT THE ANCHORAGE AND NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. DUE TO THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST BUT COULD BE IMPACTFUL FOR THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING TRAVEL INTERESTS GIVEN THE SNOW-FREE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014/

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STACKED AND WEAKENING 970S LOW CENTER JUST WEST OF SAND POINT
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING ESE AND WEAKENING. RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WERE OBSERVED OVER THE AK PENINSULA. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WAS MOVING NORTH AND WEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS ENHANCED
RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS REPORTED AT STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...BRISTOL BAY...AND AK PEN/ALEUTIANS CONTINUED FAIRLY MILD.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DROPPED TEMPS OVER THE
DELTA INTO THE TEENS. COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE
STILL IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH VALUES FROM -2 TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE GEM REGIONAL WAS
USED IN THE WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A
TRANSITION INTO A NAM/EC BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER. IN THE
EAST...THE NAM WILL BE USED EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
NAM/EC BLEND.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST
OF THESE UPPER WAVES WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY...MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY FORM IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER IN NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INLAND BRISTOL BAY AS THE LOW NEAR THE AKPENN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...AND WEAK RIDGING BEINGS TO DEVELOP. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A
WEAK FRONT SLIDES ONSHORE FROM THE BERING.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPENN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS RIDING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN LOW LOCATED OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA COAST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD...KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN BY MID
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND LOW POSITIONING OVER
THE WESTERN DOMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. GLOBAL MODELS
AND WPC GUIDANCE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO A COMMON SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIVERGE FROM THAT SOLUTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THIS TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS CREATED HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT CAN IMPACT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...A DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY...AND TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING WET AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND TRACKS EASTWARD.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LONG TERM...



000
FXAK68 PAFC 230135
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
435 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STACKED AND WEAKENING 970S LOW CENTER JUST WEST OF SAND POINT
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING ESE AND WEAKENING. RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WERE OBSERVED OVER THE AK PENINSULA. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WAS MOVING NORTH AND WEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS ENHANCED
RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS REPORTED AT STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...BRISTOL BAY...AND AK PEN/ALEUTIANS CONTINUED FAIRLY MILD.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DROPPED TEMPS OVER THE
DELTA INTO THE TEENS. COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE
STILL IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH VALUES FROM -2 TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE GEM REGIONAL WAS
USED IN THE WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A
TRANSITION INTO A NAM/EC BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER. IN THE
EAST...THE NAM WILL BE USED EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
NAM/EC BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST
OF THESE UPPER WAVES WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY...MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY FORM IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER IN NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INLAND BRISTOL BAY AS THE LOW NEAR THE AKPENN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...AND WEAK RIDGING BEINGS TO DEVELOP. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A
WEAK FRONT SLIDES ONSHORE FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPENN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS RIDING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN LOW LOCATED OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA COAST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD...KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN BY MID
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND LOW POSITIONING OVER
THE WESTERN DOMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. GLOBAL MODELS
AND WPC GUIDANCE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO A COMMON SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIVERGE FROM THAT SOLUTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THIS TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS CREATED HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT CAN IMPACT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...A DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY...AND TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING WET AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND TRACKS EASTWARD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK68 PAFC 230135
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
435 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STACKED AND WEAKENING 970S LOW CENTER JUST WEST OF SAND POINT
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING ESE AND WEAKENING. RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WERE OBSERVED OVER THE AK PENINSULA. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WAS MOVING NORTH AND WEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS ENHANCED
RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS REPORTED AT STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...BRISTOL BAY...AND AK PEN/ALEUTIANS CONTINUED FAIRLY MILD.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DROPPED TEMPS OVER THE
DELTA INTO THE TEENS. COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE
STILL IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH VALUES FROM -2 TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE GEM REGIONAL WAS
USED IN THE WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A
TRANSITION INTO A NAM/EC BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER. IN THE
EAST...THE NAM WILL BE USED EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
NAM/EC BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST
OF THESE UPPER WAVES WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY...MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY FORM IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER IN NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INLAND BRISTOL BAY AS THE LOW NEAR THE AKPENN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...AND WEAK RIDGING BEINGS TO DEVELOP. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A
WEAK FRONT SLIDES ONSHORE FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPENN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS RIDING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN LOW LOCATED OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA COAST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD...KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN BY MID
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND LOW POSITIONING OVER
THE WESTERN DOMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. GLOBAL MODELS
AND WPC GUIDANCE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO A COMMON SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIVERGE FROM THAT SOLUTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THIS TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS CREATED HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT CAN IMPACT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...A DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY...AND TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING WET AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND TRACKS EASTWARD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK68 PAFC 230135
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
435 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STACKED AND WEAKENING 970S LOW CENTER JUST WEST OF SAND POINT
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING ESE AND WEAKENING. RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WERE OBSERVED OVER THE AK PENINSULA. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WAS MOVING NORTH AND WEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS ENHANCED
RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS REPORTED AT STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...BRISTOL BAY...AND AK PEN/ALEUTIANS CONTINUED FAIRLY MILD.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DROPPED TEMPS OVER THE
DELTA INTO THE TEENS. COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE
STILL IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH VALUES FROM -2 TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE GEM REGIONAL WAS
USED IN THE WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A
TRANSITION INTO A NAM/EC BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER. IN THE
EAST...THE NAM WILL BE USED EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
NAM/EC BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST
OF THESE UPPER WAVES WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY...MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY FORM IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER IN NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INLAND BRISTOL BAY AS THE LOW NEAR THE AKPENN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...AND WEAK RIDGING BEINGS TO DEVELOP. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A
WEAK FRONT SLIDES ONSHORE FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPENN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS RIDING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN LOW LOCATED OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA COAST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD...KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN BY MID
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND LOW POSITIONING OVER
THE WESTERN DOMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. GLOBAL MODELS
AND WPC GUIDANCE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO A COMMON SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIVERGE FROM THAT SOLUTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THIS TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS CREATED HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT CAN IMPACT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...A DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY...AND TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING WET AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND TRACKS EASTWARD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK68 PAFC 230135
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
435 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STACKED AND WEAKENING 970S LOW CENTER JUST WEST OF SAND POINT
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING ESE AND WEAKENING. RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WERE OBSERVED OVER THE AK PENINSULA. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WAS MOVING NORTH AND WEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS ENHANCED
RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS REPORTED AT STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...BRISTOL BAY...AND AK PEN/ALEUTIANS CONTINUED FAIRLY MILD.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DROPPED TEMPS OVER THE
DELTA INTO THE TEENS. COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE
STILL IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH VALUES FROM -2 TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE GEM REGIONAL WAS
USED IN THE WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A
TRANSITION INTO A NAM/EC BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER. IN THE
EAST...THE NAM WILL BE USED EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
NAM/EC BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST
OF THESE UPPER WAVES WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY...MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY FORM IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER IN NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INLAND BRISTOL BAY AS THE LOW NEAR THE AKPENN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...AND WEAK RIDGING BEINGS TO DEVELOP. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A
WEAK FRONT SLIDES ONSHORE FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPENN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS RIDING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN LOW LOCATED OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA COAST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD...KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN BY MID
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND LOW POSITIONING OVER
THE WESTERN DOMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. GLOBAL MODELS
AND WPC GUIDANCE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO A COMMON SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIVERGE FROM THAT SOLUTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THIS TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS CREATED HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT CAN IMPACT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...A DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY...AND TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING WET AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND TRACKS EASTWARD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXAK69 PAFG 230058
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
358 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ITS REMNANTS FILLING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE NEW LOW...PRESENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TIP OF
KAMCHATKA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE ABOUT 980 MB WEST OF SHEMYA
MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA...BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE 1022 MB LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO
BE 1018 MB OVER BANKS ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.
WITNESSED BY THE 30 BELOW TEMPERATURES IN CALM VALLEYS OF ZONE
220 SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME COOLING OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AS
WINDS ALOFT THERE WILL RETAIN SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DJH NOV 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 230058
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
358 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ITS REMNANTS FILLING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE NEW LOW...PRESENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TIP OF
KAMCHATKA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE ABOUT 980 MB WEST OF SHEMYA
MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA...BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE 1022 MB LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO
BE 1018 MB OVER BANKS ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.
WITNESSED BY THE 30 BELOW TEMPERATURES IN CALM VALLEYS OF ZONE
220 SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME COOLING OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AS
WINDS ALOFT THERE WILL RETAIN SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DJH NOV 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 230033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION HAS BEEN MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EFFECT AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN TO ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BOOST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE AREA. THE
PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST,
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING THE LOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR AND SHOWERS
INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
TO GIVE RISE TO THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THEY HAVE SO FAR REMAINED SOUTH
OF THE GULF. MODELED CAPE AND OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE. MID
LEVEL FORCING OVER THE GULF IS LACKING, HOWEVER, SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

DEEP, MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE SOUTH
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A DEVELOPING WAVE WILL SPIN UP A
WEAK LOW LATE THIS EVENING OVER HAIDA GWAII, ENHANCING SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE DEVELOPING WAVE THAT FOLLOWS WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH, BUT WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS SUFFICIENTLY
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HAVE 2.5 MORE INCHES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HAINES HIGHWAY TO ADD TO THE 4 INCHES
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AS WELL.
EAGLE CREST SHOULD ALSO GET ABOUT 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER 1.5 INCHES TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE DOWN LOW, NO ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WITH SNOW LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP
TOMORROW, NONE TOMORROW EITHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE INSIDE AND OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR EASTERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT. EXCEPTION IS COASTAL
MARINE ZONE 52, WHERE A WEAK BARRIER JET UP TO 25 KTS IS EXPECTED TO
FORM TOMORROW NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF ICY BAY. SEAS ON THE
OUTSIDE ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH AT AROUND 13 FEET WITH MOST
OF THIS BEING A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT 8 TO 11 SECONDS PERIOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES. BRIEF WIND SPEED EXCURSIONS UP TO OR EVEN ABOVE 25
KTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE INNER CHANNELS, BUT AM EXPECTING
OVERALL CONDITIONS ON THE INSIDE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

USED NAM FOR PRESSURE AND WIND TODAY. POP AND QPF A BLEND OF GEM
AND ECMWF. TEMPS FROM MOS AND NAM. SNOW LEVELS DERIVED FROM NAM AS
WELL. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN A BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR PRINCE OF
WALES/SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEM
REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING TO 990MB WHILE THE
NAM BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 1002MB. MEANWHILE THE EC AND GFS DON`T
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH AN OPEN WAVE AROUND 1004MB
MOVING THROUGH MON. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW A JET STREAK RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MON...THE RF QUADRANT OF THE STREAK
SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING LOW. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. KEPT STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING INLAND NEAR
CAPE DECISION MON MORNING. KEPT WINDS BELOW STRONG WIND HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF CLARENCE STRAIT EXPERIENCED
GALES FROM THIS STORM. THIS DEVELOPING LOW ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEEP ONSHORE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN NUMEROUS TO
SCT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TUE.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
BERING SEA RESULTING IN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. TRENDED
FORECAST DRIER WED AND THU AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION. ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER
LOW S OF THE RIDGE. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N THIS FEATURE MOVES...SOME
MOISTURE COULD SPREAD FAR ENOUGH N TO BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

OVERALL...TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM MON...EC TUE AND THEN
USED WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.
&&

$$

FRITSCH/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 230033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION HAS BEEN MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EFFECT AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN TO ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BOOST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE AREA. THE
PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST,
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING THE LOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR AND SHOWERS
INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
TO GIVE RISE TO THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THEY HAVE SO FAR REMAINED SOUTH
OF THE GULF. MODELED CAPE AND OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE. MID
LEVEL FORCING OVER THE GULF IS LACKING, HOWEVER, SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

DEEP, MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE SOUTH
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A DEVELOPING WAVE WILL SPIN UP A
WEAK LOW LATE THIS EVENING OVER HAIDA GWAII, ENHANCING SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE DEVELOPING WAVE THAT FOLLOWS WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH, BUT WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS SUFFICIENTLY
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HAVE 2.5 MORE INCHES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HAINES HIGHWAY TO ADD TO THE 4 INCHES
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AS WELL.
EAGLE CREST SHOULD ALSO GET ABOUT 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER 1.5 INCHES TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE DOWN LOW, NO ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WITH SNOW LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP
TOMORROW, NONE TOMORROW EITHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE INSIDE AND OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR EASTERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT. EXCEPTION IS COASTAL
MARINE ZONE 52, WHERE A WEAK BARRIER JET UP TO 25 KTS IS EXPECTED TO
FORM TOMORROW NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF ICY BAY. SEAS ON THE
OUTSIDE ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH AT AROUND 13 FEET WITH MOST
OF THIS BEING A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT 8 TO 11 SECONDS PERIOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES. BRIEF WIND SPEED EXCURSIONS UP TO OR EVEN ABOVE 25
KTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE INNER CHANNELS, BUT AM EXPECTING
OVERALL CONDITIONS ON THE INSIDE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

USED NAM FOR PRESSURE AND WIND TODAY. POP AND QPF A BLEND OF GEM
AND ECMWF. TEMPS FROM MOS AND NAM. SNOW LEVELS DERIVED FROM NAM AS
WELL. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN A BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR PRINCE OF
WALES/SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEM
REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING TO 990MB WHILE THE
NAM BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 1002MB. MEANWHILE THE EC AND GFS DON`T
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH AN OPEN WAVE AROUND 1004MB
MOVING THROUGH MON. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW A JET STREAK RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MON...THE RF QUADRANT OF THE STREAK
SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING LOW. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. KEPT STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING INLAND NEAR
CAPE DECISION MON MORNING. KEPT WINDS BELOW STRONG WIND HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF CLARENCE STRAIT EXPERIENCED
GALES FROM THIS STORM. THIS DEVELOPING LOW ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEEP ONSHORE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN NUMEROUS TO
SCT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TUE.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
BERING SEA RESULTING IN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. TRENDED
FORECAST DRIER WED AND THU AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION. ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER
LOW S OF THE RIDGE. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N THIS FEATURE MOVES...SOME
MOISTURE COULD SPREAD FAR ENOUGH N TO BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

OVERALL...TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM MON...EC TUE AND THEN
USED WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.
&&

$$

FRITSCH/BC

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