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000
FXAK68 PAFC 280013
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Low pressure across the western Bering Sea is losing any
upper level support and is starting to slowly weaken to the
northwest of Shemya. Draping from this low is an occluded front
that stretches to the southeast, between Shemya and Attu Island.

High pressure across the central Bering Sea and Aleutian
chain is continuing to weaken and slide to the southeast this
afternoon. 11 to 3.9 micron satellite imagery depicts a rather
robust area of fog and stratus in this region. AKPEN and Bering
Sea upper air analysis continue to depict strong inversions near
the surface that has been evident for the last few days now.

Across the southern Gulf of Alaska is an ever persistent
vertically stacked low. Several disturbances will rotate around
this low and be key players in weather across much of the region
throughout the week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Much like the last few days - the models remain in good
agreement through the short term. Minor timing differences
begin to emerge into the Wednesday afternoon time frame at
the surface. The ever present surface low that has been spinning
in the Gulf of Alaska, for quite some time, will weaken and get
absorbed into a surface trough diving down across the Aleutian
Chain. When looking into the upper levels we begin to see more
differences in timing of events expected across the area. A fairly
potent shortwave can be seen in water vapor imagery rounding the
base of the stacked low. This shortwave will wrap around the low
eventually making it into Gulf of Alaska forecast. A much more
potent wiggle in the flow will move from east to west across the
Copper River Basin and into the Susitna Valley Thursday afternoon
and evening. The ECMWF and Canadian seem to be the most strongest
and most aggressive while remaining farther north. The American
models are a little less aggressive and farther north. Regardless
- a much wetter mid to end of week is looking on tap at this
point.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The
thermal trough remains to our north, and will move farther to the
northwest. This synoptic feature combined with the ridge building
from the Southeast Panhandle into the Copper River Basin will
inhibit any developing thunderstorms in the AOR through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the low in the Gulf remains almost stationary with
southeasterly flow transporting moisture, and precipitation into
the northern Gulf coastal communities. Therefore, the Anchorage
Bowl, and the Susitna Valley will enjoy sunny skies through the
early evening before receiving increased cloud cover. The
Southcentral region will have a showery weather regime with the
Anchorage Bowl, and the Western Kenai having drier conditions due
to down-sloping. Look for the gap winds to remain gusty through
the Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and the Copper River Valley through
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An unstable environment will continue for Southwest Alaska into
Thursday. There is also just enough capping for enough potential
energy for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening
hours. This is especially true in the Kuskokwim Valley and
surrounding mountains. However, the instability is not impressive
enough for more than widely scattered thunderstorms. The other
concern is fog out over the Eastern Bering that will move in over
coastal areas overnight and then dissipate by the afternoon. That
pattern will continue into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the Central Bering is slowly tracking east as it
weakens. Underneath the ridging fog is impacting areas over the
Bering, Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. As the ridging weakens
into Tuesday the fog will also lighten, but still remain through
Wednesday. Behind the ridge, a front is moving through the Western
Bering towards the Central Bering. On Tuesday the front will stall
near the Pribilof Islands where it will remain into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The extended forecast beginning late week will feature a a large
upper low over the western Bering Sea and another stretching
across the Gulf of Alaska. Narrow ridging (and the associated
thermal low) will be centered over the interior of Alaska north of
the Alaska Range. This will mean easterly flow aloft will be
present across southern Alaska. These patterns can be conducive
to inland heavy rain events as thermal lows forming across the
Yukon interact with shortwave troughs embedded within the trough
before retrograding west. There is currently low certainty with
timing and exact placement of these lows as they move west, but
there is increasing confidence that large parts of southern Alaska
will potentially see moderate to heavy rain and shower events
Thursday through Saturday. The best chances for heavier rains will
be along and near the Alaska Range, with lesser chances farther
south. After Saturday, the Gulf trough will weaken and move east
with the Bering trough moving in and replacing it. This will keep
a wetter and more moist pattern in place with periods of rain
along the coast and shower threats inland.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...JA




000
FXAK68 PAFC 280013
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Low pressure across the western Bering Sea is losing any
upper level support and is starting to slowly weaken to the
northwest of Shemya. Draping from this low is an occluded front
that stretches to the southeast, between Shemya and Attu Island.

High pressure across the central Bering Sea and Aleutian
chain is continuing to weaken and slide to the southeast this
afternoon. 11 to 3.9 micron satellite imagery depicts a rather
robust area of fog and stratus in this region. AKPEN and Bering
Sea upper air analysis continue to depict strong inversions near
the surface that has been evident for the last few days now.

Across the southern Gulf of Alaska is an ever persistent
vertically stacked low. Several disturbances will rotate around
this low and be key players in weather across much of the region
throughout the week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Much like the last few days - the models remain in good
agreement through the short term. Minor timing differences
begin to emerge into the Wednesday afternoon time frame at
the surface. The ever present surface low that has been spinning
in the Gulf of Alaska, for quite some time, will weaken and get
absorbed into a surface trough diving down across the Aleutian
Chain. When looking into the upper levels we begin to see more
differences in timing of events expected across the area. A fairly
potent shortwave can be seen in water vapor imagery rounding the
base of the stacked low. This shortwave will wrap around the low
eventually making it into Gulf of Alaska forecast. A much more
potent wiggle in the flow will move from east to west across the
Copper River Basin and into the Susitna Valley Thursday afternoon
and evening. The ECMWF and Canadian seem to be the most strongest
and most aggressive while remaining farther north. The American
models are a little less aggressive and farther north. Regardless
- a much wetter mid to end of week is looking on tap at this
point.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The
thermal trough remains to our north, and will move farther to the
northwest. This synoptic feature combined with the ridge building
from the Southeast Panhandle into the Copper River Basin will
inhibit any developing thunderstorms in the AOR through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the low in the Gulf remains almost stationary with
southeasterly flow transporting moisture, and precipitation into
the northern Gulf coastal communities. Therefore, the Anchorage
Bowl, and the Susitna Valley will enjoy sunny skies through the
early evening before receiving increased cloud cover. The
Southcentral region will have a showery weather regime with the
Anchorage Bowl, and the Western Kenai having drier conditions due
to down-sloping. Look for the gap winds to remain gusty through
the Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and the Copper River Valley through
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An unstable environment will continue for Southwest Alaska into
Thursday. There is also just enough capping for enough potential
energy for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening
hours. This is especially true in the Kuskokwim Valley and
surrounding mountains. However, the instability is not impressive
enough for more than widely scattered thunderstorms. The other
concern is fog out over the Eastern Bering that will move in over
coastal areas overnight and then dissipate by the afternoon. That
pattern will continue into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the Central Bering is slowly tracking east as it
weakens. Underneath the ridging fog is impacting areas over the
Bering, Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. As the ridging weakens
into Tuesday the fog will also lighten, but still remain through
Wednesday. Behind the ridge, a front is moving through the Western
Bering towards the Central Bering. On Tuesday the front will stall
near the Pribilof Islands where it will remain into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The extended forecast beginning late week will feature a a large
upper low over the western Bering Sea and another stretching
across the Gulf of Alaska. Narrow ridging (and the associated
thermal low) will be centered over the interior of Alaska north of
the Alaska Range. This will mean easterly flow aloft will be
present across southern Alaska. These patterns can be conducive
to inland heavy rain events as thermal lows forming across the
Yukon interact with shortwave troughs embedded within the trough
before retrograding west. There is currently low certainty with
timing and exact placement of these lows as they move west, but
there is increasing confidence that large parts of southern Alaska
will potentially see moderate to heavy rain and shower events
Thursday through Saturday. The best chances for heavier rains will
be along and near the Alaska Range, with lesser chances farther
south. After Saturday, the Gulf trough will weaken and move east
with the Bering trough moving in and replacing it. This will keep
a wetter and more moist pattern in place with periods of rain
along the coast and shower threats inland.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...JA



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000
FXAK67 PAJK 280011
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
411 PM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Upper level low situated in the southwest gulf
with high pressure ridge over western Canada and the AK panhandle
still in place and showing no signs of moving in the short term.
Surface waves continue to rotate around the low moving in precip
and cloud cover. Currently one short wave pulled to the northwest
with clearing skies over the southern and central panhandle with
some lingering shower activity over the northeast gulf. A weak
wave developing over southern British Columbia is moving to the
northwest and producing some lightning activity. Kept in some
isolated showers near Hyder but with lack of large scale support
for initiation, thunderstorms were not included. Next AK gulf wave
moves in from the west tonight into Tuesday, but main precip band
under this next wave stays offshore. Do expect cloud shield to
move over the panhandle late tonight so not expecting as many
clear breaks seen today or temperatures to be as warm for the
southern panhandle. However still enough heating for some shower
development, especially over the mountains, Tuesday afternoon. In
addition, radiational fog development still possible tonight for
the central panhandle as long as cloud cover stays to the west
until the late morning. With weak pressure gradient forcing
mechanism for winds today was mainly thermal gradient resulting in
early afternoon sea breezes. As the next wave moves in Tuesday
will have bit more pressure gradient, especially over the northern
panhandle, resulting in increased winds.

Not much change in new models compared to inherited forecast so
updates were minimal. Trickiest forecast element was sky cover
and resulting temperatures/fog development from potential
insolation/radiational cooling. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Upper low discussed above will remain in place over
the gulf through Wednesday morning, then become elongated east-
west as it interacts with another large upper low moving southeast
fro Kamchatka. The original low will remain over the gulf through
Saturday night. On Sunday, an upper ridge will build in from the
south, and displace the first upper low to the east. The second
low will then displace the ridge to the east early next week.

At the surface, surface ridging over the panhandle will remain in
place as a weak low over the west central gulf weakens in place on
Wednesday. A developing low associated with the Kamchatka feature
will undercut the gulf through Thursday night and be near Haida
Gwaii by Friday morning. Very good model agreement on this between
GFS and ECMWF with the Canadian NH being a SW outlier. As this low
approaches, it will disrupt the surface ridging over the panhandle
before it drifts inland and weakens over west central British
Columbia Friday night. Another surface ridge will then build in
over the gulf from the south late next weekend.

Scattered shower activity will persist over Southeast Alaska
through Wednesday night. Next likely rain event will come on
Thursday as a short wave rotates around the weak surface low. Weak
jet support, but relatively robust vorticity maxima will aide in
producing rain. At this point, it looks like precip from the Haida
Gwaii low will affect the southern half of the panhandle, if at
all. Early model data was suggesting this to happen on Saturday,
but latest information indicating it will be more likely on
Friday.

For pressure and wind, used a NAM / Canadian NH blend through
Wednesday night. Used ECMWF from then through Friday night. WPC
thereafter. POP and QPF grids still looking good through Wednesday
night, so little to no change there. Increased POP on Thursday in
response to the aforementioned short wave. Tweaked inner channel
and Haines Highway/klondike Highway temperatures down. Overall
forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

$$

PRB/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau




000
FXAK67 PAJK 280011
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
411 PM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Upper level low situated in the southwest gulf
with high pressure ridge over western Canada and the AK panhandle
still in place and showing no signs of moving in the short term.
Surface waves continue to rotate around the low moving in precip
and cloud cover. Currently one short wave pulled to the northwest
with clearing skies over the southern and central panhandle with
some lingering shower activity over the northeast gulf. A weak
wave developing over southern British Columbia is moving to the
northwest and producing some lightning activity. Kept in some
isolated showers near Hyder but with lack of large scale support
for initiation, thunderstorms were not included. Next AK gulf wave
moves in from the west tonight into Tuesday, but main precip band
under this next wave stays offshore. Do expect cloud shield to
move over the panhandle late tonight so not expecting as many
clear breaks seen today or temperatures to be as warm for the
southern panhandle. However still enough heating for some shower
development, especially over the mountains, Tuesday afternoon. In
addition, radiational fog development still possible tonight for
the central panhandle as long as cloud cover stays to the west
until the late morning. With weak pressure gradient forcing
mechanism for winds today was mainly thermal gradient resulting in
early afternoon sea breezes. As the next wave moves in Tuesday
will have bit more pressure gradient, especially over the northern
panhandle, resulting in increased winds.

Not much change in new models compared to inherited forecast so
updates were minimal. Trickiest forecast element was sky cover
and resulting temperatures/fog development from potential
insolation/radiational cooling. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Upper low discussed above will remain in place over
the gulf through Wednesday morning, then become elongated east-
west as it interacts with another large upper low moving southeast
fro Kamchatka. The original low will remain over the gulf through
Saturday night. On Sunday, an upper ridge will build in from the
south, and displace the first upper low to the east. The second
low will then displace the ridge to the east early next week.

At the surface, surface ridging over the panhandle will remain in
place as a weak low over the west central gulf weakens in place on
Wednesday. A developing low associated with the Kamchatka feature
will undercut the gulf through Thursday night and be near Haida
Gwaii by Friday morning. Very good model agreement on this between
GFS and ECMWF with the Canadian NH being a SW outlier. As this low
approaches, it will disrupt the surface ridging over the panhandle
before it drifts inland and weakens over west central British
Columbia Friday night. Another surface ridge will then build in
over the gulf from the south late next weekend.

Scattered shower activity will persist over Southeast Alaska
through Wednesday night. Next likely rain event will come on
Thursday as a short wave rotates around the weak surface low. Weak
jet support, but relatively robust vorticity maxima will aide in
producing rain. At this point, it looks like precip from the Haida
Gwaii low will affect the southern half of the panhandle, if at
all. Early model data was suggesting this to happen on Saturday,
but latest information indicating it will be more likely on
Friday.

For pressure and wind, used a NAM / Canadian NH blend through
Wednesday night. Used ECMWF from then through Friday night. WPC
thereafter. POP and QPF grids still looking good through Wednesday
night, so little to no change there. Increased POP on Thursday in
response to the aforementioned short wave. Tweaked inner channel
and Haines Highway/klondike Highway temperatures down. Overall
forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

$$

PRB/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau



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000
FXAK69 PAFG 272248
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...
Current model runs are generally similar through Friday.
GFS 850 mb temperatures are continuing to run a few degrees
warmer than the NAM and ECMWF. Model QPF forecasts out
through Wednesday are generally similar in the broad
scale area of coverage.

UPPER AIR...
At 500 mb. a short wave trough extending from Barrow southward
into the interior will lift out northeastward into the western
Canadian archipelago by Tuesday. A short wave trough along and
north of the Russian arctic coast 900 miles west of Barrow will
move eastward across the Arctic Ocean, will deepen into a 531 dam
low 250 miles northwest of Barrow by Wednesday afternoon north of
Deadhorse southward into the Beaufort Sea by Tuesday evening. then
deepen to a 525 dam low near 80N/120W by Wednesday afternoon.
Another low center will move eastward to 400 miles north of
Deadhorse by Thursday afternoon then move to Banks island and
northward by late Wednesday night. 850 mb temperatures over the
Arctic slope will warm some after the initial short wave exits off
to the east. Circulation with the next incoming Arctic low will
remain mainly north of the Arctic coast, with the coast being
just brushed by the outer fringe of the circulation.

A weak ridge extending east-west across the southern Alaska
mainland will gradually build and move northward through
Friday afternoon. The ridge axis Wednesday afternoon will extend
from the Chukotsk Peninsula eastward into the Yukon Territory.
By Friday afternoon the ridge axis will extend from the Chukchi
Sea eastward across the Brooks Range into Canada. 850 mb
temperatures in the ridge will gradually rise through Thursday,
and this will result in warmer surface temperatures as well.

SURFACE...
A cold front supported by a short wave trough aloft will
continue to move eastward across the interior this afternoon
and evening. A 1017 mb high over the central Arctic slope
will build to a 1020 mb high over the Mackenzie River Delta
area by late tonight. A 1001 mb low will develop will develop
250 miles west of Wrangel Island this afternoon, then deepen to 1
992 mb low 250 miles north of Barrow by late this afternoon. By
Wednesday morning the low will move to near 79N/130W deepening to
987 mb. A weak thermal trough will develop over the southeastern
interior Tuesday. The trough will strengthen and move northward
Thursday to extend from the western brooks Range to the central
Yukon Territory, with a 1018 mb thermal low centered about 50
miles north of Fort Yukon.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...
Extensive stratus and fog covers the coast from the Barrow
area eastward, with mostly clear skies west of Barrow.
Decreasing cloudiness is expected from the Barrow area this
afternoon through this evening as winds along the coast shift to
southeast then to south. Rain will over the central and eastern
areas will end from the west by late this evening as the short
wave trough exits to the east. Southwest winds 25-35 mph
developing near the coast from Barrow westward Tuesday morning in
advance of an eastward moving surface trough and front. Winds will
shift to the west Tuesday afternoon and decrease to northwest
10-15 mph by late Tuesday evening. Elsewhere winds will increase
to southwest 15-25 mph as the surface trough and front moves east,
decreasing to west to northwest 10-15 mph by late Tuesday night.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
No significant weather is expected along the west coast.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the western interior
from the middle Yukon valley southward this afternoon and
evening. Some thunderstorms may produce small hail and
gusty winds. Isolated thunderstorms are expected again
over this area during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday
and Wednesday.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
Rain continuing this afternoon over most areas with the eastward
moving front and short wave trough, decreasing this evening.
Rain may change to showers during the afternoon and evening.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
over the central interior and the western and northern parts of
the eastern interior, with some instability remaining over the
area and enhanced by synoptic scale lift from the eastward moving
front and short wave trough. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
and small hail. Isolated thunderstorms activity is expected over
most areas during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and
Wednesday with instability persisting and the upper ridge axis
shifting slowly northward. There will be potential for heavy rain
over much of the southern interior Wednesday night and Thursday,
and from Denali westward into the southwest interior Thursday
night with a moist easterly flow pattern aloft and an eastward
moving short wave trough. Another upper disturbance could bring
significant rain to much of the central and eastern interior
Friday night and Saturday.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warming and drier conditions expected in the interior Tuesday and
Wednesday as the upper level ridge rebuilds and shifts slowly
northward. Isolated thunderstorms will continue over portions of
the interior during the afternoon and evening. No red flag
conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels on the Chena, Little Chena and Goodpaster rivers
are rising in response to the rainfall which occurred yesterday.
The rivers will remain well below flood stage and start to
fall Tuesday afternoon. There is potential for heavy rain in the
southern interior Wednesday night and Thursday, and from Denali
westward Thursday night. Another period of significant rain
possible over the central and eastern interior Friday and
Friday night. Future model runs will needed to be monitored for
the heavy rain potential.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF JUN 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272248
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...
Current model runs are generally similar through Friday.
GFS 850 mb temperatures are continuing to run a few degrees
warmer than the NAM and ECMWF. Model QPF forecasts out
through Wednesday are generally similar in the broad
scale area of coverage.

UPPER AIR...
At 500 mb. a short wave trough extending from Barrow southward
into the interior will lift out northeastward into the western
Canadian archipelago by Tuesday. A short wave trough along and
north of the Russian arctic coast 900 miles west of Barrow will
move eastward across the Arctic Ocean, will deepen into a 531 dam
low 250 miles northwest of Barrow by Wednesday afternoon north of
Deadhorse southward into the Beaufort Sea by Tuesday evening. then
deepen to a 525 dam low near 80N/120W by Wednesday afternoon.
Another low center will move eastward to 400 miles north of
Deadhorse by Thursday afternoon then move to Banks island and
northward by late Wednesday night. 850 mb temperatures over the
Arctic slope will warm some after the initial short wave exits off
to the east. Circulation with the next incoming Arctic low will
remain mainly north of the Arctic coast, with the coast being
just brushed by the outer fringe of the circulation.

A weak ridge extending east-west across the southern Alaska
mainland will gradually build and move northward through
Friday afternoon. The ridge axis Wednesday afternoon will extend
from the Chukotsk Peninsula eastward into the Yukon Territory.
By Friday afternoon the ridge axis will extend from the Chukchi
Sea eastward across the Brooks Range into Canada. 850 mb
temperatures in the ridge will gradually rise through Thursday,
and this will result in warmer surface temperatures as well.

SURFACE...
A cold front supported by a short wave trough aloft will
continue to move eastward across the interior this afternoon
and evening. A 1017 mb high over the central Arctic slope
will build to a 1020 mb high over the Mackenzie River Delta
area by late tonight. A 1001 mb low will develop will develop
250 miles west of Wrangel Island this afternoon, then deepen to 1
992 mb low 250 miles north of Barrow by late this afternoon. By
Wednesday morning the low will move to near 79N/130W deepening to
987 mb. A weak thermal trough will develop over the southeastern
interior Tuesday. The trough will strengthen and move northward
Thursday to extend from the western brooks Range to the central
Yukon Territory, with a 1018 mb thermal low centered about 50
miles north of Fort Yukon.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...
Extensive stratus and fog covers the coast from the Barrow
area eastward, with mostly clear skies west of Barrow.
Decreasing cloudiness is expected from the Barrow area this
afternoon through this evening as winds along the coast shift to
southeast then to south. Rain will over the central and eastern
areas will end from the west by late this evening as the short
wave trough exits to the east. Southwest winds 25-35 mph
developing near the coast from Barrow westward Tuesday morning in
advance of an eastward moving surface trough and front. Winds will
shift to the west Tuesday afternoon and decrease to northwest
10-15 mph by late Tuesday evening. Elsewhere winds will increase
to southwest 15-25 mph as the surface trough and front moves east,
decreasing to west to northwest 10-15 mph by late Tuesday night.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
No significant weather is expected along the west coast.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the western interior
from the middle Yukon valley southward this afternoon and
evening. Some thunderstorms may produce small hail and
gusty winds. Isolated thunderstorms are expected again
over this area during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday
and Wednesday.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
Rain continuing this afternoon over most areas with the eastward
moving front and short wave trough, decreasing this evening.
Rain may change to showers during the afternoon and evening.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
over the central interior and the western and northern parts of
the eastern interior, with some instability remaining over the
area and enhanced by synoptic scale lift from the eastward moving
front and short wave trough. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
and small hail. Isolated thunderstorms activity is expected over
most areas during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and
Wednesday with instability persisting and the upper ridge axis
shifting slowly northward. There will be potential for heavy rain
over much of the southern interior Wednesday night and Thursday,
and from Denali westward into the southwest interior Thursday
night with a moist easterly flow pattern aloft and an eastward
moving short wave trough. Another upper disturbance could bring
significant rain to much of the central and eastern interior
Friday night and Saturday.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warming and drier conditions expected in the interior Tuesday and
Wednesday as the upper level ridge rebuilds and shifts slowly
northward. Isolated thunderstorms will continue over portions of
the interior during the afternoon and evening. No red flag
conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels on the Chena, Little Chena and Goodpaster rivers
are rising in response to the rainfall which occurred yesterday.
The rivers will remain well below flood stage and start to
fall Tuesday afternoon. There is potential for heavy rain in the
southern interior Wednesday night and Thursday, and from Denali
westward Thursday night. Another period of significant rain
possible over the central and eastern interior Friday and
Friday night. Future model runs will needed to be monitored for
the heavy rain potential.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF JUN 16




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271241 CCA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure remains well entrenched across the eastern two-
thirds of the Bering Sea this morning although the axis of the
ridge continues to slowly drift to the east/southeast. Both
visible and shortwave IR satellite imagery shows an expansive
area of marine stratus and fog that remains trapped underneath
this high pressure. 00Z RAOBS from PACB and PASN show strong
subsidence inversions that have changed little over the past 24
hours which brings high confidence that this fog and low stratus
shouldn`t be departing any time soon.

An area of low pressure to the west/southwest of Shemya has
continued to advance northward this morning while steadily
strengthening. A frontal boundary associated with this low has
made steady progress eastward across the western Bering Sea this
morning but the overall speed is limited due to high pressure over
the Bering. However, with upper level support coming in the form
of a weak jet streak and an amplifying upper level trough, the
ridge over the Bering will continue to be displaced eastward
during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Looking back at the Alaska mainland, a broad trough continues to
linger across the region with the bulk of the upper level energy
confined to a broad low in the southern Gulf of Alaska. Several
weak disturbances have been rotating along the northern periphery
of this upper low which has brought rain showers across portions
of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Some of these showers still
linger this morning but much of the rainfall is confined to the
northern gulf coast where synoptic forcing is greater.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

No real change in guidance this morning as models remain in good
agreement through much of the short-term. The GFS is a bit quicker
and stronger with the front moving across the Bering Sea and was
therefore not heavily used for forecast updates. With the ridge
making slow progress eastward it makes more sense for the slower
solution observed by the NAM/ECMWF/GEM to unfold. The NAM still
continues to be a bit hot with the convective parameters but seems
to be nailing the areas of thunderstorms a bit better than the GFS
so a blend toward the NAM (while weakening it a touch) was used for
convection across Southwest Alaska. Models are struggling the most
with the marine stratus and fog currently situated over the eastern
Bering Sea under the upper level ridge. Best bet for forecasting
this fog and stratus will likely be persistence as models want to
raise visibilities and ceilings a lot during portions of the
afternoon and evening which has yet to be observed on any given day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A large vertically stacked low over the far southern Gulf will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple days. A series of
short-waves rotating around the northern periphery will help focus
showers and/or rain along the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. Weak
ridging inland combined with weak instability will produce
isolated to scattered convection...mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours and mainly near the mountains. Although there will
be quite a bit of mid to high clouds moving up from the Gulf,
there should be just enough instability along with some localized
downslope winds to produce occasional breaks of sun for inland
valleys. A quasi-stationary surface ridge along the northern Gulf
coast will continue to produce gap winds through Turnagain Arm
and Knik Arm along with a bit of wind along the Copper River
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...

Departing upper disturbance over Southwest Alaska moves south and
away from the area this morning, with upper ridging building
overhead through the day. A northerly mid-to upper-level
disturbance drops south by early evening that will help initiate
convection once again mainly over the Kuskokwim Mountains the next
couple of days. The lightning coverage should be greater than
Sunday mainly because of the proximity of much drier mid-level air
over the Y-K Delta region moving toward the area of maximum low-
level moisture along the thermal trough. Tuesday will be much the
same in terms of convection with increasing easterly flow and a
mid-level disturbance approaching near peak heating, along with
very dry air just to the north over the Interior allowing for
increased instability along the thermal trough.

The other major weather feature of note will be fog. With the
thermal trough remaining over the interior of Southwest Alaska,
onshore flow particularly at night will allow for the marine layer
to push well inland, especially in the Kuskokwim Delta. By late
Tuesday night, the advection fog may transition to more of a
radiational fog scenario especially away from the coast as flow
becomes fairly weak and from the east, at least during the
overnight hours underneath the diurnal near-surface inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...

A weather front over the southwestern Bering and Western Aleutians
will push east to the northern and eastern Bering through Tuesday
night. Winds will increase to as high as low-end advisory level in
the strong warm advection just ahead of the front. Outside of the
low pressure system/front and its rain and wind impacts, the main
story will be the widespread fog over much of the region, with
particularly low visibilities anywhere there is any kind of
moisture/wind convergence or terrain sheltering beneath the near-
surface inversion.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A mountain rain shower pattern with breaks of sun will begin the
forecast on Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday
afternoon. Conditions look to begin to go downhill on Thursday.
Several disturbances in the flow will affect the forecast there
after. Thursday`s mountain showers/thunderstorms will be enhanced
by one of these disturbances, but a stronger one comes through
Southcentral overnight Thursday into Friday. The disturbance should
bring widespread wetting rain from east to west Friday. The
details get a little fuzzy over the weekend, but the gulf system
responsible for the active weather will still be in the area
promoting cloudiness and at least mountain showers. Expect mostly
cloudy conditions with generally light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Cloud cover will increase and temperatures will
moderate through the remainder of the week.

Technically...the upper level low pressure spinning in the Gulf
will control the weather through the remainder of the week. Early
on, Southcentral Alaska is on the periphery of this system leaving
any diurnal convective activity over the mountains on
Tuesday/Wednesday, enhanced by any embedded easterly shortwaves.
A stronger shortwave (not embedded, actually a limb of the upper
low), looks to amplify on the baroclinic zone between the Yukon
ridge and Gulf trough late week, bringing widespread moderate
rain. However, model guidance is notoriously bad at resolving
these type features, and some spread among guidance still exists
as far as where to track this wave.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271241 CCA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure remains well entrenched across the eastern two-
thirds of the Bering Sea this morning although the axis of the
ridge continues to slowly drift to the east/southeast. Both
visible and shortwave IR satellite imagery shows an expansive
area of marine stratus and fog that remains trapped underneath
this high pressure. 00Z RAOBS from PACB and PASN show strong
subsidence inversions that have changed little over the past 24
hours which brings high confidence that this fog and low stratus
shouldn`t be departing any time soon.

An area of low pressure to the west/southwest of Shemya has
continued to advance northward this morning while steadily
strengthening. A frontal boundary associated with this low has
made steady progress eastward across the western Bering Sea this
morning but the overall speed is limited due to high pressure over
the Bering. However, with upper level support coming in the form
of a weak jet streak and an amplifying upper level trough, the
ridge over the Bering will continue to be displaced eastward
during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Looking back at the Alaska mainland, a broad trough continues to
linger across the region with the bulk of the upper level energy
confined to a broad low in the southern Gulf of Alaska. Several
weak disturbances have been rotating along the northern periphery
of this upper low which has brought rain showers across portions
of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Some of these showers still
linger this morning but much of the rainfall is confined to the
northern gulf coast where synoptic forcing is greater.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

No real change in guidance this morning as models remain in good
agreement through much of the short-term. The GFS is a bit quicker
and stronger with the front moving across the Bering Sea and was
therefore not heavily used for forecast updates. With the ridge
making slow progress eastward it makes more sense for the slower
solution observed by the NAM/ECMWF/GEM to unfold. The NAM still
continues to be a bit hot with the convective parameters but seems
to be nailing the areas of thunderstorms a bit better than the GFS
so a blend toward the NAM (while weakening it a touch) was used for
convection across Southwest Alaska. Models are struggling the most
with the marine stratus and fog currently situated over the eastern
Bering Sea under the upper level ridge. Best bet for forecasting
this fog and stratus will likely be persistence as models want to
raise visibilities and ceilings a lot during portions of the
afternoon and evening which has yet to be observed on any given day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A large vertically stacked low over the far southern Gulf will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple days. A series of
short-waves rotating around the northern periphery will help focus
showers and/or rain along the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. Weak
ridging inland combined with weak instability will produce
isolated to scattered convection...mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours and mainly near the mountains. Although there will
be quite a bit of mid to high clouds moving up from the Gulf,
there should be just enough instability along with some localized
downslope winds to produce occasional breaks of sun for inland
valleys. A quasi-stationary surface ridge along the northern Gulf
coast will continue to produce gap winds through Turnagain Arm
and Knik Arm along with a bit of wind along the Copper River
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...

Departing upper disturbance over Southwest Alaska moves south and
away from the area this morning, with upper ridging building
overhead through the day. A northerly mid-to upper-level
disturbance drops south by early evening that will help initiate
convection once again mainly over the Kuskokwim Mountains the next
couple of days. The lightning coverage should be greater than
Sunday mainly because of the proximity of much drier mid-level air
over the Y-K Delta region moving toward the area of maximum low-
level moisture along the thermal trough. Tuesday will be much the
same in terms of convection with increasing easterly flow and a
mid-level disturbance approaching near peak heating, along with
very dry air just to the north over the Interior allowing for
increased instability along the thermal trough.

The other major weather feature of note will be fog. With the
thermal trough remaining over the interior of Southwest Alaska,
onshore flow particularly at night will allow for the marine layer
to push well inland, especially in the Kuskokwim Delta. By late
Tuesday night, the advection fog may transition to more of a
radiational fog scenario especially away from the coast as flow
becomes fairly weak and from the east, at least during the
overnight hours underneath the diurnal near-surface inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...

A weather front over the southwestern Bering and Western Aleutians
will push east to the northern and eastern Bering through Tuesday
night. Winds will increase to as high as low-end advisory level in
the strong warm advection just ahead of the front. Outside of the
low pressure system/front and its rain and wind impacts, the main
story will be the widespread fog over much of the region, with
particularly low visibilities anywhere there is any kind of
moisture/wind convergence or terrain sheltering beneath the near-
surface inversion.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A mountain rain shower pattern with breaks of sun will begin the
forecast on Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday
afternoon. Conditions look to begin to go downhill on Thursday.
Several disturbances in the flow will affect the forecast there
after. Thursday`s mountain showers/thunderstorms will be enhanced
by one of these disturbances, but a stronger one comes through
Southcentral overnight Thursday into Friday. The disturbance should
bring widespread wetting rain from east to west Friday. The
details get a little fuzzy over the weekend, but the gulf system
responsible for the active weather will still be in the area
promoting cloudiness and at least mountain showers. Expect mostly
cloudy conditions with generally light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Cloud cover will increase and temperatures will
moderate through the remainder of the week.

Technically...the upper level low pressure spinning in the Gulf
will control the weather through the remainder of the week. Early
on, Southcentral Alaska is on the periphery of this system leaving
any diurnal convective activity over the mountains on
Tuesday/Wednesday, enhanced by any embedded easterly shortwaves.
A stronger shortwave (not embedded, actually a limb of the upper
low), looks to amplify on the baroclinic zone between the Yukon
ridge and Gulf trough late week, bringing widespread moderate
rain. However, model guidance is notoriously bad at resolving
these type features, and some spread among guidance still exists
as far as where to track this wave.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK67 PAJK 271238
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
438 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Regional upper air analysis early Monday morning
shows a closed low positioned south-southeast of Kodiak Island.
Surface low pressure was located beneath the low, while farther
east, high pressure was situated over the panhandle beneath a
building midlevel ridge. Additional feature of note was a weak
upper disturbance over the northeastern PAC. This disturbance is
forecast to advance NE across SRN BC tonight, while the previously
mentioned midlevel ridge shifts toward NWRN Canada.

Showers occurring over the northern panhandle Monday morning are
expected to clear out of the area by midday. This will be followed
by breaks in cloud cover (including dissipation of patchy morning
fog over the central/southern panhandle) across the entire central
inner channel region. Resultant insolation should aid in boosting
temperatures into the 60s for many locations (locally 70s near
Hyder). The atmosphere is forecast to become potentially unstable
over AKZ029. However, model guidance indicates a lack of large-
scale support for thunderstorm initiation. Thus, went with low
non-thundering shower probabilities in the vicinity of Hyder.

No appreciable changes were made to inherited grids.

.LONG TERM...Upper low will drift NNE into the gulf by Wed night.
Models diverge on where it will go after Thu due to differences
upstream. The model differences increase with features by next
weekend. Ended up making little change to the forecast as it still
looked reasonable at this point.

Looks like Tue will still be fairly mild to warm over the area
especially eastern inner channels. May have enough heating for
some showers to form over the mtns Tue afternoon especially over
the N and W. With upper low moving back toward the area
though...precip threat will increase for mid to late week. After
that things get increasingly uncertain due to model differences
in where upper low goes and where next main system upstream goes.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ052.
&&

$$

Garner/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau




000
FXAK67 PAJK 271238
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
438 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Regional upper air analysis early Monday morning
shows a closed low positioned south-southeast of Kodiak Island.
Surface low pressure was located beneath the low, while farther
east, high pressure was situated over the panhandle beneath a
building midlevel ridge. Additional feature of note was a weak
upper disturbance over the northeastern PAC. This disturbance is
forecast to advance NE across SRN BC tonight, while the previously
mentioned midlevel ridge shifts toward NWRN Canada.

Showers occurring over the northern panhandle Monday morning are
expected to clear out of the area by midday. This will be followed
by breaks in cloud cover (including dissipation of patchy morning
fog over the central/southern panhandle) across the entire central
inner channel region. Resultant insolation should aid in boosting
temperatures into the 60s for many locations (locally 70s near
Hyder). The atmosphere is forecast to become potentially unstable
over AKZ029. However, model guidance indicates a lack of large-
scale support for thunderstorm initiation. Thus, went with low
non-thundering shower probabilities in the vicinity of Hyder.

No appreciable changes were made to inherited grids.

.LONG TERM...Upper low will drift NNE into the gulf by Wed night.
Models diverge on where it will go after Thu due to differences
upstream. The model differences increase with features by next
weekend. Ended up making little change to the forecast as it still
looked reasonable at this point.

Looks like Tue will still be fairly mild to warm over the area
especially eastern inner channels. May have enough heating for
some showers to form over the mtns Tue afternoon especially over
the N and W. With upper low moving back toward the area
though...precip threat will increase for mid to late week. After
that things get increasingly uncertain due to model differences
in where upper low goes and where next main system upstream goes.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ052.
&&

$$

Garner/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271237
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure remains well entrenched across the eastern two-
thirds of the Bering Sea this morning although the axis of the
ridge continues to slowly drift to the east/southeast. Both
visible and shortwave IR satellite imagery shows an expansive
area of marine stratus and fog that remains trapped underneath
this high pressure. 00Z RAOBS from PACB and PASN show strong
subsidence inversions that have changed little over the past 24
hours which brings high confidence that this fog and low stratus
shouldn`t be departing any time soon.

An area of low pressure to the west/southwest of Shemya has
continued to advance northward this morning while steadily
strengthening. A frontal boundary associated with this low has
made steady progress eastward across the western Bering Sea this
morning but the overall speed is limited due to high pressure over
the Bering. However, with upper level support coming in the form
of a weak jet streak and an amplifying upper level trough, the
ridge over the Bering will continue to be displaced eastward
during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Looking back at the Alaska mainland, a broad trough continues to
linger across the region with the bulk of the upper level energy
confined to a broad low in the southern Gulf of Alaska. Several
weak disturbances have been rotating along the northern periphery
of this upper low which has brought rain showers across portions
of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Some of these showers still
linger this morning but much of the rainfall is confined to the
northern gulf coast where synoptic forcing is greater.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

No real change in guidance this morning as models remain in good
agreement through much of the short-term. The GFS is a bit quicker
and stronger with the front moving across the Bering Sea and was
therefor not heavily used for forecast updates. With the ridge
making slow progress eastward it makes more sense for the slower
solution observed by the NAM/ECMWF/GEM to unfold. The NAM still
continues to be a bit hot with the convective parameters but seems
to be nailing the areas of thunderstorms a bit better than the GFS
so a blend toward the NAM (while weakening it a touch) was used
for convection across Southwest Alaska. Models are struggling the
most with the marine stratus and fog currently situated over the
eastern Bering Sea under the upper level ridge. Best bet for
forecasting this fog and stratus will likely be persistence as
models want to raise visibilities and ceilings a lot during
portions of the afternoon and evening which has yet to be observed
on any given day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A large vertically stacked low over the far southern Gulf will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple days. A series of
short-waves rotating around the northern periphery will help focus
showers and/or rain along the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. Weak
ridging inland combined with weak instability will produce
isolated to scattered convection...mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours and mainly near the mountains. Although there will
be quite a bit of mid to high clouds moving up from the Gulf,
there should be just enough instability along with some localized
downslope winds to produce occasional breaks of sun for inland
valleys. A quasi-stationary surface ridge along the northern Gulf
coast will continue to produce gap winds through Turnagain Arm
and Knik Arm along with a bit of wind along the Copper River
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...

Departing upper disturbance over Southwest Alaska moves south and
away from the area this morning, with upper ridging building
overhead through the day. A northerly mid-to upper-level
disturbance drops south by early evening that will help initiate
convection once again mainly over the Kuskokwim Mountains the next
couple of days. The lightning coverage should be greater than
Sunday mainly because of the proximity of much drier mid-level air
over the Y-K Delta region moving toward the area of maximum low-
level moisture along the thermal trough. Tuesday will be much the
same in terms of convection with increasing easterly flow and a
mid-level disturbance approaching near peak heating, along with
very dry air just to the north over the Interior allowing for
increased instability along the thermal trough.

The other major weather feature of note will be fog. With the
thermal trough remaining over the interior of Southwest Alaska,
onshore flow particularly at night will allow for the marine layer
to push well inland, especially in the Kuskokwim Delta. By late
Tuesday night, the advection fog may transition to more of a
radiational fog scenario especially away from the coast as flow
becomes fairly weak and from the east, at least during the
overnight hours underneath the diurnal near-surface inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...

A weather front over the southwestern Bering and Western Aleutians
will push east to the northern and eastern Bering through Tuesday
night. Winds will increase to as high as low-end advisory level in
the strong warm advection just ahead of the front. Outside of the
low pressure system/front and its rain and wind impacts, the main
story will be the widespread fog over much of the region, with
particularly low visibilities anywhere there is any kind of
moisture/wind convergence or terrain sheltering beneath the near-
surface inversion.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A mountain rain shower pattern with breaks of sun will begin the
forecast on Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday
afternoon. Conditions look to begin to go downhill on Thursday.
Several disturbances in the flow will affect the forecast there
after. Thursday`s mountain showers/thunderstorms will be enhanced
by one of these disturbances, but a stronger one comes through
Southcentral overnight Thursday into Friday. The disturbance should
bring widespread wetting rain from east to west Friday. The
details get a little fuzzy over the weekend, but the gulf system
responsible for the active weather will still be in the area
promoting cloudiness and at least mountain showers. Expect mostly
cloudy conditions with generally light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Cloud cover will increase and temperatures will
moderate through the remainder of the week.

Technically...the upper level low pressure spinning in the Gulf
will control the weather through the remainder of the week. Early
on, Southcentral Alaska is on the periphery of this system leaving
any diurnal convective activity over the mountains on
Tuesday/Wednesday, enhanced by any embedded easterly shortwaves.
A stronger shortwave (not embedded, actually a limb of the upper
low), looks to amplify on the baroclinic zone between the Yukon
ridge and Gulf trough late week, bringing widespread moderate
rain. However, model guidance is notoriously bad at resolving
these type features, and some spread among guidance still exists
as far as where to track this wave.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271237
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure remains well entrenched across the eastern two-
thirds of the Bering Sea this morning although the axis of the
ridge continues to slowly drift to the east/southeast. Both
visible and shortwave IR satellite imagery shows an expansive
area of marine stratus and fog that remains trapped underneath
this high pressure. 00Z RAOBS from PACB and PASN show strong
subsidence inversions that have changed little over the past 24
hours which brings high confidence that this fog and low stratus
shouldn`t be departing any time soon.

An area of low pressure to the west/southwest of Shemya has
continued to advance northward this morning while steadily
strengthening. A frontal boundary associated with this low has
made steady progress eastward across the western Bering Sea this
morning but the overall speed is limited due to high pressure over
the Bering. However, with upper level support coming in the form
of a weak jet streak and an amplifying upper level trough, the
ridge over the Bering will continue to be displaced eastward
during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Looking back at the Alaska mainland, a broad trough continues to
linger across the region with the bulk of the upper level energy
confined to a broad low in the southern Gulf of Alaska. Several
weak disturbances have been rotating along the northern periphery
of this upper low which has brought rain showers across portions
of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Some of these showers still
linger this morning but much of the rainfall is confined to the
northern gulf coast where synoptic forcing is greater.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

No real change in guidance this morning as models remain in good
agreement through much of the short-term. The GFS is a bit quicker
and stronger with the front moving across the Bering Sea and was
therefor not heavily used for forecast updates. With the ridge
making slow progress eastward it makes more sense for the slower
solution observed by the NAM/ECMWF/GEM to unfold. The NAM still
continues to be a bit hot with the convective parameters but seems
to be nailing the areas of thunderstorms a bit better than the GFS
so a blend toward the NAM (while weakening it a touch) was used
for convection across Southwest Alaska. Models are struggling the
most with the marine stratus and fog currently situated over the
eastern Bering Sea under the upper level ridge. Best bet for
forecasting this fog and stratus will likely be persistence as
models want to raise visibilities and ceilings a lot during
portions of the afternoon and evening which has yet to be observed
on any given day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A large vertically stacked low over the far southern Gulf will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple days. A series of
short-waves rotating around the northern periphery will help focus
showers and/or rain along the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. Weak
ridging inland combined with weak instability will produce
isolated to scattered convection...mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours and mainly near the mountains. Although there will
be quite a bit of mid to high clouds moving up from the Gulf,
there should be just enough instability along with some localized
downslope winds to produce occasional breaks of sun for inland
valleys. A quasi-stationary surface ridge along the northern Gulf
coast will continue to produce gap winds through Turnagain Arm
and Knik Arm along with a bit of wind along the Copper River
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...

Departing upper disturbance over Southwest Alaska moves south and
away from the area this morning, with upper ridging building
overhead through the day. A northerly mid-to upper-level
disturbance drops south by early evening that will help initiate
convection once again mainly over the Kuskokwim Mountains the next
couple of days. The lightning coverage should be greater than
Sunday mainly because of the proximity of much drier mid-level air
over the Y-K Delta region moving toward the area of maximum low-
level moisture along the thermal trough. Tuesday will be much the
same in terms of convection with increasing easterly flow and a
mid-level disturbance approaching near peak heating, along with
very dry air just to the north over the Interior allowing for
increased instability along the thermal trough.

The other major weather feature of note will be fog. With the
thermal trough remaining over the interior of Southwest Alaska,
onshore flow particularly at night will allow for the marine layer
to push well inland, especially in the Kuskokwim Delta. By late
Tuesday night, the advection fog may transition to more of a
radiational fog scenario especially away from the coast as flow
becomes fairly weak and from the east, at least during the
overnight hours underneath the diurnal near-surface inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...

A weather front over the southwestern Bering and Western Aleutians
will push east to the northern and eastern Bering through Tuesday
night. Winds will increase to as high as low-end advisory level in
the strong warm advection just ahead of the front. Outside of the
low pressure system/front and its rain and wind impacts, the main
story will be the widespread fog over much of the region, with
particularly low visibilities anywhere there is any kind of
moisture/wind convergence or terrain sheltering beneath the near-
surface inversion.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A mountain rain shower pattern with breaks of sun will begin the
forecast on Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday
afternoon. Conditions look to begin to go downhill on Thursday.
Several disturbances in the flow will affect the forecast there
after. Thursday`s mountain showers/thunderstorms will be enhanced
by one of these disturbances, but a stronger one comes through
Southcentral overnight Thursday into Friday. The disturbance should
bring widespread wetting rain from east to west Friday. The
details get a little fuzzy over the weekend, but the gulf system
responsible for the active weather will still be in the area
promoting cloudiness and at least mountain showers. Expect mostly
cloudy conditions with generally light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Cloud cover will increase and temperatures will
moderate through the remainder of the week.

Technically...the upper level low pressure spinning in the Gulf
will control the weather through the remainder of the week. Early
on, Southcentral Alaska is on the periphery of this system leaving
any diurnal convective activity over the mountains on
Tuesday/Wednesday, enhanced by any embedded easterly shortwaves.
A stronger shortwave (not embedded, actually a limb of the upper
low), looks to amplify on the baroclinic zone between the Yukon
ridge and Gulf trough late week, bringing widespread moderate
rain. However, model guidance is notoriously bad at resolving
these type features, and some spread among guidance still exists
as far as where to track this wave.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271156
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Have handled this system relatively well that last
couple days, and the 27/00Z run initialized well against the
27/06Z surface analysis. Similar solutions in the short term,
with some spread beyond 120 hours. Going to stick with a strait
blend for most elements with a lean toward the NAM for
precipitation coverage which has worked out well the last couple
days. Convective will be the big player again today, and be best
convective indices coming out of the solutions are south of the
Brooks range and east of a line from Coldfoot to Kaltag to Bethel.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...A 551 dam low over the northeast Pacific
continues to wobble around and will move south over 50n 150w this
morning then slowly drift northeast. A 578 mb high over Atka with
ridging extending northwest over the Gulf of Anadyr and northeast
over Nunivak Island to Dawson Yukon this morning will build north
with a 568 dam high developing over Norton Sound Tuesday morning
and ridging extending northwest over the Chukotsk Peninsula and
west across the interior. By Wednesday morning the high will
merge with the ridge over Canada and cover most of mainland
Alaska. Over the arctic the low that has been moving northeast
across the area is 400 nm north of Deadhorse this morning with the
shortwave extending southwest over Nuiqsut to Anvik this morning,
and by late evening will lie over Kuparuk to Ruby, and by
Tuesday morning will lie over Komakuk Beach Yukon to Fort Yukon,
then moves out of the state. A Shortwave near 74N 150E will move
to the western Chukchi Sea by Tuesday morning, then northeast
across the arctic Tuesday as the southern end of it just brushes
the across the arctic coast. AT 850 HPA...Some cooling across the
area as the zero isotherm dips south over the arctic plain today,
it moves back north of the coast on Tuesday as ridging builds over
the interior and temperatures under it rise to 7 to 12 degrees
Celsius.

SURFACE...Thermal trough and low have merged with front moving
across the arctic this morning and will move east into Canada this
morning. Cold front supported by a shortwave aloft will continue
to move east across the interior today as it weakens. A 1018 mb
high over the arctic plain will move east to MacKenzie Bay by
late this evening as it continues its march east to the Canadian
Archipelago. A thermal low will develop over the central Yukon
Territory tonight with the thermal trough over the Fortymile
country and upper Yukon flats. A 998 mb low will move to Wrangel
Island tonight with a cold front extending south over the western
Chukchi Sea. The low will move northeast across the arctic to 300
nm north of Barrow by Tuesday afternoon with the cold front
extending southwest across the Chukchi Sea, the low continues into
the High Canadian Archipelago by Wednesday morning with the front
extending south over Banks Island. The front will just brush
across the arctic coast Tuesday night. Weak ridging is Building
over the Gulf coast this morning and a 1024 mb high will develop
over Prince William Sound and persist through Wednesday.

SATELLITE...Lots of MVFR/IFR stratus and fog over the arctic
coast, Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Norton Sound this morning
on the GOES probability product at 27/1030Z.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Pretty progressive pattern with
lots of changing weather as these systems move across the area.
Some showers east of Barrow today. Some patchy dense fog over
coastal areas behind the front and in advance of the next front
that will move mainly north of the area Tuesday. Wind direction
will vary by location from west to northwest, then southeast as
the next front moves across the area. Winds speeds will generally
be 10 to 20 mph in the coastal areas with lighter winds inland.
Slightly stronger winds on the northwest coast with the next
system at 15 to 25 mph from the southeast. Models still indicating
some heavy rain possible in the eastern Brooks range so will need
watch that area. A few thunderstorms yesterday over the Eastern
Brooks range, and there is potential for some isolated
thunderstorms today as the front moves through the area.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Generally pretty quiet out on
the coast. Some thunderstorms and showers in the western interior
today, and the southwestern interior south of Galena tonight.
Small hail and gusty winds with the thunderstorms. Temperatures
5 to 10 degrees cooler today and tonight. Winds will generally be
light with the strongest winds on the Chukchi Sea coast the next
couple days as the low moves north of the area. Good convective
indices again today to support the thunderstorm and shower
activity.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...With a front moving across and good
moisture still in place, look for thunderstorm and shower activity
again today. Convective indices show good lift across the area and
that will just be enhanced by the front. The thermal trough is
pulling out to the north with the front so temperatures will be a
bit cooler today than they have been the last few days. Winds will
generally be west at 5 to 15 mph with some gusty winds
accompanying the thunderstorms. We had several reports of small
hail, and Doppler radar indicated hail in many of the
thunderstorms yesterday and that can be expected today.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...No concerns at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...More thunderstorm active day again today.
Scattered thunderstorms generally south of the Yukon river again
today. Winds will generally be from the west at 5 to 15 mph and
may be gusting to around 25 mph with the front that will move
east across the interior today. With the thunderstorms winds will
be variable and gusty, and small hail can also be expected. Cooler
today than the last few days, and relative humidity values will
remain above 30 percent for most areas after good overnight
recovery last night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Anaktuvuk pass recorded almost an inch of rain
yesterday, and other sites recorded around half an inch, and that
runoff will be making its way through the streams into the
mainstem rivers. Stream and rivers flowing out of the Brooks range
could see some rapid rises today and tonight, but they are
expected to remain with banks.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB JUN 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271156
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Have handled this system relatively well that last
couple days, and the 27/00Z run initialized well against the
27/06Z surface analysis. Similar solutions in the short term,
with some spread beyond 120 hours. Going to stick with a strait
blend for most elements with a lean toward the NAM for
precipitation coverage which has worked out well the last couple
days. Convective will be the big player again today, and be best
convective indices coming out of the solutions are south of the
Brooks range and east of a line from Coldfoot to Kaltag to Bethel.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...A 551 dam low over the northeast Pacific
continues to wobble around and will move south over 50n 150w this
morning then slowly drift northeast. A 578 mb high over Atka with
ridging extending northwest over the Gulf of Anadyr and northeast
over Nunivak Island to Dawson Yukon this morning will build north
with a 568 dam high developing over Norton Sound Tuesday morning
and ridging extending northwest over the Chukotsk Peninsula and
west across the interior. By Wednesday morning the high will
merge with the ridge over Canada and cover most of mainland
Alaska. Over the arctic the low that has been moving northeast
across the area is 400 nm north of Deadhorse this morning with the
shortwave extending southwest over Nuiqsut to Anvik this morning,
and by late evening will lie over Kuparuk to Ruby, and by
Tuesday morning will lie over Komakuk Beach Yukon to Fort Yukon,
then moves out of the state. A Shortwave near 74N 150E will move
to the western Chukchi Sea by Tuesday morning, then northeast
across the arctic Tuesday as the southern end of it just brushes
the across the arctic coast. AT 850 HPA...Some cooling across the
area as the zero isotherm dips south over the arctic plain today,
it moves back north of the coast on Tuesday as ridging builds over
the interior and temperatures under it rise to 7 to 12 degrees
Celsius.

SURFACE...Thermal trough and low have merged with front moving
across the arctic this morning and will move east into Canada this
morning. Cold front supported by a shortwave aloft will continue
to move east across the interior today as it weakens. A 1018 mb
high over the arctic plain will move east to MacKenzie Bay by
late this evening as it continues its march east to the Canadian
Archipelago. A thermal low will develop over the central Yukon
Territory tonight with the thermal trough over the Fortymile
country and upper Yukon flats. A 998 mb low will move to Wrangel
Island tonight with a cold front extending south over the western
Chukchi Sea. The low will move northeast across the arctic to 300
nm north of Barrow by Tuesday afternoon with the cold front
extending southwest across the Chukchi Sea, the low continues into
the High Canadian Archipelago by Wednesday morning with the front
extending south over Banks Island. The front will just brush
across the arctic coast Tuesday night. Weak ridging is Building
over the Gulf coast this morning and a 1024 mb high will develop
over Prince William Sound and persist through Wednesday.

SATELLITE...Lots of MVFR/IFR stratus and fog over the arctic
coast, Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Norton Sound this morning
on the GOES probability product at 27/1030Z.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Pretty progressive pattern with
lots of changing weather as these systems move across the area.
Some showers east of Barrow today. Some patchy dense fog over
coastal areas behind the front and in advance of the next front
that will move mainly north of the area Tuesday. Wind direction
will vary by location from west to northwest, then southeast as
the next front moves across the area. Winds speeds will generally
be 10 to 20 mph in the coastal areas with lighter winds inland.
Slightly stronger winds on the northwest coast with the next
system at 15 to 25 mph from the southeast. Models still indicating
some heavy rain possible in the eastern Brooks range so will need
watch that area. A few thunderstorms yesterday over the Eastern
Brooks range, and there is potential for some isolated
thunderstorms today as the front moves through the area.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Generally pretty quiet out on
the coast. Some thunderstorms and showers in the western interior
today, and the southwestern interior south of Galena tonight.
Small hail and gusty winds with the thunderstorms. Temperatures
5 to 10 degrees cooler today and tonight. Winds will generally be
light with the strongest winds on the Chukchi Sea coast the next
couple days as the low moves north of the area. Good convective
indices again today to support the thunderstorm and shower
activity.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...With a front moving across and good
moisture still in place, look for thunderstorm and shower activity
again today. Convective indices show good lift across the area and
that will just be enhanced by the front. The thermal trough is
pulling out to the north with the front so temperatures will be a
bit cooler today than they have been the last few days. Winds will
generally be west at 5 to 15 mph with some gusty winds
accompanying the thunderstorms. We had several reports of small
hail, and Doppler radar indicated hail in many of the
thunderstorms yesterday and that can be expected today.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...No concerns at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...More thunderstorm active day again today.
Scattered thunderstorms generally south of the Yukon river again
today. Winds will generally be from the west at 5 to 15 mph and
may be gusting to around 25 mph with the front that will move
east across the interior today. With the thunderstorms winds will
be variable and gusty, and small hail can also be expected. Cooler
today than the last few days, and relative humidity values will
remain above 30 percent for most areas after good overnight
recovery last night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Anaktuvuk pass recorded almost an inch of rain
yesterday, and other sites recorded around half an inch, and that
runoff will be making its way through the streams into the
mainstem rivers. Stream and rivers flowing out of the Brooks range
could see some rapid rises today and tonight, but they are
expected to remain with banks.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB JUN 16




000
FXAK68 PAFC 270044
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 PM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level trough encompassing much of the Alaska mainland
has drifted further south across the Gulf of Alaska. An easterly
wave that moved across the Mat-Su Valleys has weakened as it
drifted to the southwest. As such the rain has tapered off to
showers across much of the Anchorage bowl with a little light rain
holding over the Matanuska valley. A weak wave along the north
Gulf coast will continue to provide showers this evening. A
secondary wave in the eastern Gulf is rotating through the flow
and will eventually move north and west. A weak southeasterly wave
across far western Alaska has dropped into the Kuskokwim Valley
and western Bristol Bay regions. This wave, combined with
instability from daytime heating will spark some showers and
thunderstorms across the Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol
Bay. Cooler air at the low levels moving across the Kuskokwim
Delta should hinder afternoon/evening convection.

Across the Bering Sea, high pressure has made some progress moving
eastward through the day. Marine stratus remains extensive across
the eastern and central Bering Sea as evident from visible
satellite. The low that developed off the Kamchatka Peninsula has
strengthened and moved eastward towards the far western Aleutians.
An associated frontal boundary is just south and west of Shemya
and Attu Island and is traversing north and east.


&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model QPF initializations were not all that impressive with the
broad band of rain extending Northeast to Southwest across the
Matanuska Valley and Anchorage Bowl. However, the high resolution
ARW did a fair job of capturing the areal extent of rain. Models
overall are handling the broad synoptic pattern over the next
couple of days. The higher resolution NAM will be used in this
afternoon`s forecast packages.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Anchorage Bowl will have a brief window of sunny skies this
evening before increased cloud cover as an upper level shortwave
moves through the region by Monday afternoon. The bulk of the
precipitation through Monday will remain along the northern gulf
coastline except for a few showers spilling over the Chugach and
Kenai Mountains. The Turnagain Arm gap winds will continue through
the the upcoming weak as a ridge of high pressure builds along
the southeast Panhandle towards the northern Gulf. We have a
northeast storm motion which will result in some isolated
thunderstorms tracking over the alaska range from the north before
dissipating this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...
The start of the week will be much like the weekend has been. The
thermal trough will remain the key feature. It will bring
widespread showers and the potential for scattered thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. There is a weak trough approaching the
YK-Delta from the northwest. This feature should help to further
intensify convection this evening. It will also serve to induce a
low-level jet over the Kuskokwim Valley during the overnight hours
tonight. So there could be some gusty southerly winds for the
higher elevations from Sleetmute East.

Ridging over the Bering will also continue to approach the Delta
over the next 24 hours. Underneath this ridge is a nearly
continuous blanket of fog and low marine stratus. As the ridge
nudges closer, this fog and stratus will start to encroach upon
the Coast. Nunivak island and Bristol Bay are already seeing some
of it. By Tue morning it should be able to make it far enough
inland to affect Bethel.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...
The pattern over the Bering could be divided in two, but the
impacts would be much the same. From the Central to Eastern
Bering, strong high pressure remains dominant. It continues to
plague those areas with fog and marine stratus. While some of the
fog has lifted into just low stratus this evening, we expect it to
reduced visibility at the surface for many locations as
subsidence increases overnight. Over the Western Bering, it is a
slightly trickier scenario. Weak warm occlusions keep trying to
push into that area. However, they are mostly falling apart before
they can reach Shemya, Atka, or Adak. This has kept precipitation
to a minimum and allowed fog to linger. A stronger front will push
from west to east through Shemya tonight. This will bring rain to
the far Western Aleutians and should provide enough mixing to
improve visibilities out there. But the front gets hung up over
the Central Aleutians and just weakens in place through Tue. This
could make for a very warm and moist air mass just sitting across
that area. Thus, we have increased the coverage of the fog and
lowered the visibilities over those locales.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A mountain rain shower pattern with breaks of sun will begin the
forecast on Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday
afternoon. Conditions look to begin to go downhill on Thursday.
Several disturbances in the flow will affect the forecast there
after. Thursday`s mountain showers/thunderstorms will be enhanced
by one of these disturbances, but a stronger one comes through
Southcentral overnight Thursday into Friday. The disturbance should
bring widespread wetting rain from east to west Friday. The
details get a little fuzzy over the weekend, but the gulf system
responsible for the active weather will still be in the area
promoting cloudiness and at least mountain showers. Expect mostly
cloudy conditions with generally light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Cloud cover will increase and temperatures will
moderate through the remainder of the week.

Technically...the upper level low pressure spinning in the Gulf
will control the weather through the remainder of the week. Early
on, Southcentral Alaska is on the periphery of this system leaving
any diurnal convective activity over the mountains on
Tuesday/Wednesday, enhanced by any embedded easterly shortwaves.
A stronger shortwave (not embedded, actually a limb of the upper
low), looks to amplify on the baroclinic zone between the Yukon
ridge and Gulf trough late week, bringing widespread moderate
rain. However, model guidance is notoriously bad at resolving
these type features, and some spread among guidance still exists
as far as where to track this wave.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LIW/BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...ML




000
FXAK67 PAJK 262250
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Another wet gray day across the area as onshore flow
persists on the east side of an upper level low. Rain rates have
been light with 24-hour rainfall amounts ranging from around 6
tenths of an inch in the northern panhandle to around a tenth in
the southern panhandle. Winds are a little gusty this afternoon
due to another weak trough moving through but these winds are not
as strong as yesterday with only some gusts to 20 kt noted today.

Biorka Island radar currently shows a decent rain shield just
offshore of Baranof Island that is heading toward the NE gulf
coast. This is a result of a 50 kt mid level jet combined with
some vorticity aloft creating a moisture plume that extends from
the NE gulf coast down to around 40 N latitude. Not much moisture
in this plume, however as measured satellite PW values of a little
over an inch are around normal for this time of year. The plume is
not expected to stay aimed at the NE gulf coast for long. The
surface ridge that has been lingering along the coast range is
building NW today and will continue to do so tonight. The end
result is that the plume will get pushed W through the next 24
hours taking its rain with it. Areas S of Frederick Sound are
already drying out because of this. Also, while the northern
panhandle east of Cape Fairweather will see rain tonight (with
some lingering showers tomorrow) the heaviest rain is also getting
deflected W with most of it heading toward the northern gulf
coast. Expected rainfall amounts will be around half to three
quarters of an inch from Cape Fairweather westward with lesser
amounts expected the farther E and S you go.

Lingering clouds will keep temperatures in the 50s for most
places tonight though some breaks in the clouds over the south may
allow some fog to develop late. More substantial breaks in the
clouds tomorrow (along with light winds) will bring warmer high
temperature tomorrow afternoon. Expected highs will range from
the 50s for Yakutat and the NE outer coast (where clouds will
linger) to around 70 for the southern panhandle (where partly
cloudy skies are expected). Though these numbers could vary
depending on how much cloud cover lingers in various areas.

Short range models continue to be in rather good agreement through
the next 24 hours. Decided to stick with the higher res NAM for
guidance today.

.LONG TERM...An omega style block that has kept a quasi
stationary upper level low over the AK gulf will finally begin to
break down Wednesday. This allows a new low to move in to the
Aleutians, but the gulf low is not moving any place soon. With any
large blocking pattern break down models have difficulty resolving
new features, and this situation is no different. The current
upper low will pull back west with the diminishing precipitation
over the panhandle lasting through Tuesday, but a return of
another shortwave trough moving over the region starting late
Tuesday will bring in increasing clouds and eventually increasing
precipitation. For the end of the week indications of another low
moving into the AK Gulf, but large amount of model spread and
uncertainty with this surface feature. ECMWF/GEM put in a deeper
stronger low with wide spread precip over the panhandle while the
GFS has a weak low further to the north with a narrower band of
rain. Gut reaction is the lean toward the ECMWF/GEM solution but
keeping with more ensemble / climatology solution for now.

High pressure ridge still over the panhandle until late in the
week when it drifts east. Thus winds over the panhandle will
generally be less than 15 kt with the exception of the far
northern inner channels were pressure gradient will keep winds
closer to 20 kts. As the ridge breaks down and the next low moves
in winds will pick up again over the gulf and panhandle.

Used a blend of 12z GFS/ECMWF to day 4 with only minor changes to
inherited forecast. Used new WPC for the rest of the long range,
but expect this extended forecast to change with improving model
resolution and agreement. Confidence is average until mid week
then drops significantly.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051-052.
&&

$$

EAL/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262049
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1249 PM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Main forecast concern today will be convective potential and how
that will translate to thunderstorm coverage and intensity across
Interior Alaska this afternoon and evening. Good model agreement
amongst the 26/12z deterministic model suite through mid week
with increasing spread between solutions by late next week. Model
continuity continues to be good as well.

ALOFT...A 535 dam upper low 325 miles north of Barrow and
associated trough extending south of Northern Alaska will
gradually move east. The upper level low center will move east
towards Prince Patrick Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
through early Tuesday. A 551 dam upper low over the Gulf of Alaska
will remain quasi-stationary through mid week before gradually
moving north towards the Alaska Gulf Coast. An upper ridge over
western North American will build back west over interior Alaska
Tuesday...remaining overhead through the end of the week. A 551
dam upper low over the Kamchatka Peninsula will move out over the
western Bering Sea by Tuesday.

SURFACE...A surface cold front will push southeast from the
Northwest coast to along the eastern Brooks Range tonight and
will merge with a thermal low over the eastern Brooks Range and
Yukon Flats. A ridge of high pressure will build over the
Northwest and then shift east along the Arctic Coast Monday and
early Tuesday. A 1010 mb over the Gulf of Alaska will remain
quasi-stationary, fill and weaken through Wednesday.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Expecting another active day for
convective activity across the area. 26/12z GFS and NAM are
painting surface-based CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1200 J/KG
with LI values ranging from -2 to -5 this afternoon and evening
from Fairbanks to Tanana and south to the Alaska Range. With this
unstable airmass...lift provided by a southeastward moving cold
front and increasing moisture over the Interior via an easterly
wave, am expecting scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and
small hail this afternoon and evening. However, cannot rule out
the possibility of larger...near severe criteria hail within
isolated stronger thunderstorms. Outside this area, CAPE and LI
values are significantly lower and thus expecting only isolated
convection. Monday afternoon/evening should be a different story,
with only isolated thunderstorms, as convective indices are not
as impressive as the instability is expected to decrease over the
area. Areal coverage for thunderstorms Monday will shifted
slightly north away from the Alaska Range.

Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler Monday from
today`s maximum temperature. As an upper level ridge builds over
the interior Tuesday and Wednesday...temperatures will warm back
into the 70s.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Another active day for
convective activity for the Middle and Lower Yukon Valleys as well
as the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. 26/12z GFS and NAM are painting
surface-based CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000 J/KG with LI
values ranging from -1 to -4 this afternoon and evening over this
area. This unstable atmosphere and lift contributed by a
southeastward moving cold front, scattered thunderstorms are
expected. For Monday, convective indices are significantly lower,
thus only expecting isolated thunderstorms from Galena to Anvik
southeast to the Alaska Range. Over the northwest, isolated to
scattered rain showers are expected tonight. Cooler temperatures
Monday, but temperatures will warm Tuesday and Wednesday as an
upper level ridge builds back over the Interior.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Main concern will the potential
for moderate to heavy rainfall over the north slopes of the
eastern Brooks Range as an upper level trough swings east and a
surface cold front moves over the area. Rainfall amounts up to
three-quarters of an inch is forecast through early Monday
afternoon and will create in bank rises in the local rivers and
streams. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon
and evening over the plains and eastern Brooks Range. Along the
Arctic Coast...areas of fog and stratus will move back onshore
tonight, but will push back offshore Monday afternoon as winds
swing around to the south. Temperatures will cool behind the cold
front Monday, but will warm Tuesday and Wednesday.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cold front moving East across the Arctic Slope through tonight.
This colder air will run into the much warmer air already in
place over Northern Alaska and will undercut the warmer air and
provide lift. This will be one of the major factors in the
development of thunderstorms over the Northern Interior through
Monday. Additionally, the low lever thermal trough positioned over
the Central Interior will slowly push East. The 500H are near
normal but the lower level temperatures are above normal, again
adding to the instability for the development of thunderstorms
over Northern Alaska. Upper level flow over the Interior is
primarily Southwesterly or Westerly which will continue to keep RH
values above 30 percent for the most part through early Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time, but rivers and streams in
the eastern Brooks range may see some rapid rises over the next
couple days due to some heavy rains through Monday afternoon.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

LTH JUN 16




000
FXAK67 PAJK 261329
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
529 AM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Model guidance indicates an upper-level closed low
positioned over the southwestern gulf early Sunday morning will
shift slightly south during the next 24 hours...while heights
build downstream over western Canada. This evolution will
gradually focus rain over the northern panhandle, while drier
conditions and possible clearing skies develop over the southern
panhandle. These trends over the southern panhandle will aid in
moderating afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s to locally
60s. This will give way to augmented radiational cooling during
the overnight that may yield patchy fog from Angoon-Petersburg
southward.

Hazardous marine winds are forecast to be confined to the northern
coastal waters, where barrier enhancement will aid in east-
southeast winds to 25 kt. Northern Lynn Canal will also experience
sustained southerly winds to 20 kt...but a brief period of small
craft speeds can`t be ruled out.

Inherited grids were supported by latest forecast guidance, thus
few changes were necessary.

.LONG TERM...Upper low just south of the gulf will drift back to
the north around midweek. The upper ridge just east of the area
will begin to drift further east and away from the area during
the latter half of the week. Surface high pressure ridge over much
of southeast Alaska will gradually weaken beginning around Wed.
The surface low associated with the upper low will drift with the
upper low with several weak trofs moving across the eastern gulf
during the week...with increasing effects on the panhandle
expected during the latter part of the week. Ended up using a
blend of the 00z GFS and NAM for Mon-Mon night period...with
little change to the forecast beyond then.

Main adjustments to forecast were to speed up drying trend a bit
for Mon over main part of panhandle...and to increase winds some
over the north gulf. Did also nudge max temps upward a bit over
the eastern areas with the largest adjustment to the Hyder area.
These changes were a continuation of model trends. Otherwise
forecast was looking fairly good at this point compared to
models...with increasing model spread noted for latter part of the
week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051-052.
&&

$$

Garner/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau




000
FXAK67 PAJK 261329
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
529 AM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Model guidance indicates an upper-level closed low
positioned over the southwestern gulf early Sunday morning will
shift slightly south during the next 24 hours...while heights
build downstream over western Canada. This evolution will
gradually focus rain over the northern panhandle, while drier
conditions and possible clearing skies develop over the southern
panhandle. These trends over the southern panhandle will aid in
moderating afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s to locally
60s. This will give way to augmented radiational cooling during
the overnight that may yield patchy fog from Angoon-Petersburg
southward.

Hazardous marine winds are forecast to be confined to the northern
coastal waters, where barrier enhancement will aid in east-
southeast winds to 25 kt. Northern Lynn Canal will also experience
sustained southerly winds to 20 kt...but a brief period of small
craft speeds can`t be ruled out.

Inherited grids were supported by latest forecast guidance, thus
few changes were necessary.

.LONG TERM...Upper low just south of the gulf will drift back to
the north around midweek. The upper ridge just east of the area
will begin to drift further east and away from the area during
the latter half of the week. Surface high pressure ridge over much
of southeast Alaska will gradually weaken beginning around Wed.
The surface low associated with the upper low will drift with the
upper low with several weak trofs moving across the eastern gulf
during the week...with increasing effects on the panhandle
expected during the latter part of the week. Ended up using a
blend of the 00z GFS and NAM for Mon-Mon night period...with
little change to the forecast beyond then.

Main adjustments to forecast were to speed up drying trend a bit
for Mon over main part of panhandle...and to increase winds some
over the north gulf. Did also nudge max temps upward a bit over
the eastern areas with the largest adjustment to the Hyder area.
These changes were a continuation of model trends. Otherwise
forecast was looking fairly good at this point compared to
models...with increasing model spread noted for latter part of the
week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051-052.
&&

$$

Garner/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau




000
FXAK68 PAFC 261313
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level trough encompassing much of the Alaska mainland
has remained in place through the overnight hours. Rain showers
and a few thunderstorms continued through the early morning hours
across the western half of the Kuskokwim Delta and the Bristol Bay
area. Thunderstorm activity has all but diminished this morning with
the loss of daytime instability that developed on Saturday but
lingering showers continue to move from north to south across
Southwest Alaska. The massive ridge that currently encompasses
the majority of the Bering Sea continues to slowly build eastward
which has kept area from Bethel west on the dry side. The last few
faint glimpses of visible satellite before the sun set showed a
large area (extending from Shemya all the way east to Cold Bay and
north to Saint Matthew Island) of marine stratus and fog trapped
under the high pressure. Very little change in this feature has
been noted throughout the day as sounding from PASY and PACB show
a well defined subsidence inversion.

Looking further west toward Shemya...the next system that will
impact Alaska has begun to take shape as a weak low has begun to
develop along the triple point of a frontal boundary south of the
Kamchatka Peninsula. This front has been make steady eastward
progress overnight and is currently just to the west of Shemya/Attu.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in very good agreement once again which is no
surprise because the overall synoptic pattern has not changed
much in the past 24 hours. The general trend of the east/southeast
displacement of the ridge over the Bering Sea looks to be well
progged but there are a few minor timing issues. This relates back
to a developing area of low pressure to the west of Shemya. Based
on the development of this low and the progression of the sfc
front, a change to speed up or slow down the displacement could
be seen in the coming days. The NAM has been doing a better job
than the GFS with convection although some of the parameters have
some convective feedback so a trend toward the NAM for thunderstorm
placement and probabilities was utilized across southwest Alaska.
For the overall forecast, a blend toward the America guidance
(NAM/GFS) was utilized once again with an above average confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The low in the Gulf of Alaska continues to support a showery
weather pattern across the mainland. A well-developed easterly
wave is currently bringing steady showers to the western Copper
River Basin, Matanuska Valley and Anchorage Bowl. Showers are
expected to linger but slowly diminish throughout the day as the
upper level wave slowly weakens and slides to the southwest.
Currently instability is expected to be relatively low, and no
lightning strikes are anticipated across southcentral today.
While showers will generally diminish through the overnight hours,
a more well developed wave will push through the region on Monday
afternoon and generate another round of steady showers Monday
afternoon into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper disturbance moving over a moist airmass will bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Kuskokwim
Valley and adjacent mountains today. On Sunday the arrival of a
front from the northern Bering will again bring showers and
thunderstorms to the same area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Northwest flow across the eastern half of the Bering and Aleutians
will continue today, with light rain and areas of fog, mainly
along the Bering coast. This will continue on Monday. The western
half of the area will come under the influence of a pair of fronts
from a north Pacific low. These will bring spread rain and some
fog to that portion of the forecast area, as the fronts reach the
central Bering and Aleutians Monday afternoon and then stall.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Monday afternoon brings a continuation of the current pattern and
conditions into the late week. Mostly cloudy conditions with a few
breaks of sun will prevail. The north gulf coast will see the
brunt of showers in this pattern, while scattered showers will
build on elevated terrain in the afternoon/evening hours around
the rest of Southcentral Alaska. Tuesday will bring nearly the
same conditions with a bit more coverage of rain showers along the
Gulf Coast, but coverage will increase almost everywhere on
Wednesday as the gulf low begins to move overhead. Thursday is
when the gulf system really starts to influence the area, making
widespread rain likely. Toward late week the initial system moves
to the west and weakens while another takes its place in the gulf.
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s inland with 50s along
the coast with light winds, except for diurnally forced gap winds.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...ML




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261151
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 AM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Continuity and initialization continue to be good in the
short term with normal spread beyond that. Will use a blend again
this cycle with a lean toward the NAM for precipitation coverage
which was pretty good today. Convective indices are pretty good
southeast of a line from Deadhorse to Galena to Bethel.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...A 548 dam low over the northeast Pacific
continues to wobble around and will move south over 50n 150w by
Monday morning then slowly drift northeast. A 578 mb high over
Atka with ridging extending northwest over Siberia and northeast
across the interior will rotate north a bit over the next 24 hours
as the high moves over the Pribilof Islands and the ridging
extends northwest over the Gulf of Anadyr and east over the south
slopes of the Alaska range by Monday morning. A 535 dam low has
moved to 300 nm northwest of Barrow this morning with a shortwave
extending south over Point Lay to Elim on Norton Sound, and will
continue to move northeast to 500 nm north of Deadhorse with the
shortwave extending south over Nuiqsut to Nikolai by Monday
morning, and north of the Canadian Archipelago with the trough
extending southwest over MacKenzie Bay to Arctic Village, then
exits the state. The ridge will slide back north of the Alaska
range on Tuesday. AT 850 HPA...Some cooling over the northwest
coast today as the zero isotherm dips south over the arctic plain
with the next weather system moving east across the arctic.
Cooling tonight in the interior that will continue into Tuesday
before a warming trend begins over the forecast area.

SURFACE...Broad thermal trough over the interior will be pushed
south and east as the next weather system over the northwest
coast moves east across the arctic. A 1018 mb high over the
Chukchi Sea will move east behind the front over the northwest
coast late this evening, then over Deadhorse Monday afternoon at
1019 mb, continuing east across MacKenzie Bay Monday night. As the
front moves east across the arctic the front will merge with the
thermal low over the upper Yukon flats tonight and the low will
move east with weak troughing remaining over the upper Yukon
flats. A 1015 mb high associated with the ridging over the eastern
Bering Sea will move over the Seward Peninsula Monday afternoon.
A thermal low will develop over the central Yukon Territory early
Tuesday with the trough extending west over the upper Tanana
valley.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Some patchy dense fog over the
eastern arctic coast this morning will dissipate later as the
front moves across the area and offshore flow over the coast kicks
in. The front is over the northwest coast this morning and will
move rapidly east across the area today spreading showers and
some isolated thunderstorms over the area. High pressure moving
in right behind it will bring a short period of clearing, then the
onshore flow will bring stratus and areas of fog back to the
coastal areas later this evening. Better chances of Thunderstorm
activity over the plains and Brooks range. Some heavy rainfall
possible in the eastern Brooks range as the front hangs up for a
while tonight. Rainfall amounts up to an inch will create rises in
the local rivers and streams, but they are expected to remain
within banks. Wind direction will vary by location as the front
moves through and the high moves in behind, but winds speeds will
generally be 10 to 20 mph in the coastal areas with lighter winds
inland.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...The front over the Chukchi sea
will spread some showers south over the Seward Peninsula this
morning and into the Noatak, Kobuk and middle Yukon valleys this
afternoon. Some clearing over the coastal areas later tonight as
the front moves east of the area. In the lower Yukon Delta and
Upper Kuskokwim valley the thunderstorms and showers will be
primarily driven by the thermal trough and unstable conditions.
CAPE values are up to 500 j/kg with negative LI`s over the areas
south of Galena and east of the Nulato hills. Temperatures will be
similar to yesterday with a cooling trend the next couple days.
Winds will primarily be southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Quite a bit of thunderstorm
activity in the area yesterday with around 2000 lightning
strikes. Expect that today will be a bit more active as the
convective indices are a bit stronger and the moisture feed from
the Gulf of Alaska via the easterly wave is a little stronger.
Temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s again today with a cooling
trend starting tonight.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...No concerns at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Much more active day expected today with scattered
thunderstorms generally south of the Yukon river. With the
easterly wave moving into the upper Tanana valley and Fortymile
country it will be slightly more moist over the eastern interior.
No significant winds expected, but they will be a bit more gusty
from the southwest and west today. Not much change in temperatures
today, slightly cooler the next couple days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time, but rivers and streams in
the eastern Brooks range may see some rapid rises over the next
couple days due to some heavy rains today and tonight.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

SDB JUN 16




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