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000
FXAK67 PAJK 271524
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
624 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS FROM INTERIOR
GAPS AND THE TAKU WINDS NEAR JUNEAU WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST RANGE TO RELAX.
PLACES ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SE AK AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS UPPER TROF HAS KEPT THE FORECAST AREA
WELL MIXED AND KEEPING TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING ON THE WARMER SIDE
IN WINDIER AREA. THERE ARE COLDER TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES WITH NO PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH DEEP OFF SHORE FLOW. THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES SE
THESE WINDS GUSTS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY,HAINES AND MISTY FJORDS WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THE HIGH WINDS
IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA AND DOUGLAS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WITH
GUSTS TO 65 MPH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVED OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER BURST OF HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AS THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES TO 50 KT. LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER OTHER PLACES THROUGH TODAY BUT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRANSITIONS FROM N/S TO E/W PLACES WEST OF
THE SKAGWAY-JUNEAU-KETCHIKAN LINE WILL SEE THOSE GUSTS DROP OFF.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICK THIS MORNING DUE TO THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM
-18 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO -10 OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
PLACES NEAR WINDIER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 39. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHER A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
NEAR WHITE PASS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF -35.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE MOST PART. USED MAINLY NAM FOR ANY UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE...SO FAR THIS MORNING THERE ARE MAX GALES TO STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALONG WITH THESES STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTS FROM
INTERIOR PASSES RANGES FROM 50 TO 70 KT. THE MARINE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GALES IN NORTHERN LYNN AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN OTHER N/S CHANNELS AS THE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH GUSTS TO 60 KT FROM
INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST RANGE FROM TAKU INLET TO PORTLAND
CANAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TO WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO BC.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST WITH A TRANSITION FORM THE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FRIDAY, AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND SNOW EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO WET ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WAS THE
GRADIENT DIMINISHES BUT THE COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF WITH A LOW FORMING IN THE N GULF ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND RIDE OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COAST BY SAT THEN
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHILE ELONGATING. BEHIND THIS LOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK GULF QUICKLY AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. THIS FRONT IS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 970 MB
BERING SEA LOW THE DEVELOPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SECOND LOW
FORMING IN THE WESTERN AK GULF WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THESE MID WEEK
SYSTEMS.

STILL EARLY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS OF WITH FIRST SNOW EVENT BUT IT
IS SHAPING UP TO PRODUCE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS IN TO 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE CURRENT
POLAR AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND OVERRUNNING SET UP FROM THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD
PRODUCE A HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIO AND THUS HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THE WEEKEND LOW
RISING INTO THE -2 TO -4 C RANGE WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1260 MB. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MORE
CONDUCIVE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX V. ALL SNOW. SO AS THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

06Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND
SHAPE OF THE FIRST LOW. GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE
AND THUS HAD LOWER POP VALUES THAN NAM OR ECMWF. THE NEW PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELDS WERE CLOSE TO INHERITED, WITH SOME QUESTION FOR
CHANNELS WHERE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW MAY BE MORE DOMINANT THAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SHIFT WINDS MORE THE SOUTH. KEPT WITH WPC GRIDS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE MODELS WITH WARMER TEMPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE NEXT LOW AND LARGER SPREAD BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-029.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 271524
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
624 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS FROM INTERIOR
GAPS AND THE TAKU WINDS NEAR JUNEAU WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST RANGE TO RELAX.
PLACES ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SE AK AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS UPPER TROF HAS KEPT THE FORECAST AREA
WELL MIXED AND KEEPING TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING ON THE WARMER SIDE
IN WINDIER AREA. THERE ARE COLDER TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES WITH NO PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH DEEP OFF SHORE FLOW. THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES SE
THESE WINDS GUSTS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY,HAINES AND MISTY FJORDS WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THE HIGH WINDS
IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA AND DOUGLAS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WITH
GUSTS TO 65 MPH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVED OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER BURST OF HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AS THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES TO 50 KT. LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER OTHER PLACES THROUGH TODAY BUT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRANSITIONS FROM N/S TO E/W PLACES WEST OF
THE SKAGWAY-JUNEAU-KETCHIKAN LINE WILL SEE THOSE GUSTS DROP OFF.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICK THIS MORNING DUE TO THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM
-18 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO -10 OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
PLACES NEAR WINDIER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 39. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHER A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
NEAR WHITE PASS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF -35.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE MOST PART. USED MAINLY NAM FOR ANY UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE...SO FAR THIS MORNING THERE ARE MAX GALES TO STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALONG WITH THESES STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTS FROM
INTERIOR PASSES RANGES FROM 50 TO 70 KT. THE MARINE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GALES IN NORTHERN LYNN AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN OTHER N/S CHANNELS AS THE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH GUSTS TO 60 KT FROM
INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST RANGE FROM TAKU INLET TO PORTLAND
CANAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TO WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO BC.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST WITH A TRANSITION FORM THE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FRIDAY, AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND SNOW EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO WET ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WAS THE
GRADIENT DIMINISHES BUT THE COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF WITH A LOW FORMING IN THE N GULF ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND RIDE OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COAST BY SAT THEN
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHILE ELONGATING. BEHIND THIS LOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK GULF QUICKLY AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. THIS FRONT IS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 970 MB
BERING SEA LOW THE DEVELOPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SECOND LOW
FORMING IN THE WESTERN AK GULF WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THESE MID WEEK
SYSTEMS.

STILL EARLY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS OF WITH FIRST SNOW EVENT BUT IT
IS SHAPING UP TO PRODUCE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS IN TO 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE CURRENT
POLAR AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND OVERRUNNING SET UP FROM THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD
PRODUCE A HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIO AND THUS HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THE WEEKEND LOW
RISING INTO THE -2 TO -4 C RANGE WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1260 MB. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MORE
CONDUCIVE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX V. ALL SNOW. SO AS THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

06Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND
SHAPE OF THE FIRST LOW. GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE
AND THUS HAD LOWER POP VALUES THAN NAM OR ECMWF. THE NEW PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELDS WERE CLOSE TO INHERITED, WITH SOME QUESTION FOR
CHANNELS WHERE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW MAY BE MORE DOMINANT THAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SHIFT WINDS MORE THE SOUTH. KEPT WITH WPC GRIDS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE MODELS WITH WARMER TEMPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE NEXT LOW AND LARGER SPREAD BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-029.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 271524
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
624 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS FROM INTERIOR
GAPS AND THE TAKU WINDS NEAR JUNEAU WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST RANGE TO RELAX.
PLACES ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SE AK AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS UPPER TROF HAS KEPT THE FORECAST AREA
WELL MIXED AND KEEPING TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING ON THE WARMER SIDE
IN WINDIER AREA. THERE ARE COLDER TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES WITH NO PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH DEEP OFF SHORE FLOW. THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES SE
THESE WINDS GUSTS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY,HAINES AND MISTY FJORDS WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THE HIGH WINDS
IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA AND DOUGLAS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WITH
GUSTS TO 65 MPH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVED OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER BURST OF HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AS THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES TO 50 KT. LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER OTHER PLACES THROUGH TODAY BUT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRANSITIONS FROM N/S TO E/W PLACES WEST OF
THE SKAGWAY-JUNEAU-KETCHIKAN LINE WILL SEE THOSE GUSTS DROP OFF.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICK THIS MORNING DUE TO THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM
-18 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO -10 OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
PLACES NEAR WINDIER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 39. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHER A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
NEAR WHITE PASS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF -35.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE MOST PART. USED MAINLY NAM FOR ANY UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE...SO FAR THIS MORNING THERE ARE MAX GALES TO STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALONG WITH THESES STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTS FROM
INTERIOR PASSES RANGES FROM 50 TO 70 KT. THE MARINE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GALES IN NORTHERN LYNN AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN OTHER N/S CHANNELS AS THE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH GUSTS TO 60 KT FROM
INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST RANGE FROM TAKU INLET TO PORTLAND
CANAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TO WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO BC.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST WITH A TRANSITION FORM THE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FRIDAY, AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND SNOW EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO WET ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WAS THE
GRADIENT DIMINISHES BUT THE COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF WITH A LOW FORMING IN THE N GULF ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND RIDE OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COAST BY SAT THEN
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHILE ELONGATING. BEHIND THIS LOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK GULF QUICKLY AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. THIS FRONT IS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 970 MB
BERING SEA LOW THE DEVELOPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SECOND LOW
FORMING IN THE WESTERN AK GULF WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THESE MID WEEK
SYSTEMS.

STILL EARLY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS OF WITH FIRST SNOW EVENT BUT IT
IS SHAPING UP TO PRODUCE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS IN TO 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE CURRENT
POLAR AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND OVERRUNNING SET UP FROM THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD
PRODUCE A HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIO AND THUS HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THE WEEKEND LOW
RISING INTO THE -2 TO -4 C RANGE WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1260 MB. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MORE
CONDUCIVE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX V. ALL SNOW. SO AS THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

06Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND
SHAPE OF THE FIRST LOW. GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE
AND THUS HAD LOWER POP VALUES THAN NAM OR ECMWF. THE NEW PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELDS WERE CLOSE TO INHERITED, WITH SOME QUESTION FOR
CHANNELS WHERE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW MAY BE MORE DOMINANT THAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SHIFT WINDS MORE THE SOUTH. KEPT WITH WPC GRIDS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE MODELS WITH WARMER TEMPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE NEXT LOW AND LARGER SPREAD BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-029.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 271524
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
624 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS FROM INTERIOR
GAPS AND THE TAKU WINDS NEAR JUNEAU WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST RANGE TO RELAX.
PLACES ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SE AK AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS UPPER TROF HAS KEPT THE FORECAST AREA
WELL MIXED AND KEEPING TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING ON THE WARMER SIDE
IN WINDIER AREA. THERE ARE COLDER TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES WITH NO PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH DEEP OFF SHORE FLOW. THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES SE
THESE WINDS GUSTS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY,HAINES AND MISTY FJORDS WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THE HIGH WINDS
IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA AND DOUGLAS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WITH
GUSTS TO 65 MPH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVED OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER BURST OF HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AS THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES TO 50 KT. LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER OTHER PLACES THROUGH TODAY BUT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRANSITIONS FROM N/S TO E/W PLACES WEST OF
THE SKAGWAY-JUNEAU-KETCHIKAN LINE WILL SEE THOSE GUSTS DROP OFF.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICK THIS MORNING DUE TO THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM
-18 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO -10 OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
PLACES NEAR WINDIER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 39. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHER A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
NEAR WHITE PASS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF -35.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE MOST PART. USED MAINLY NAM FOR ANY UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE...SO FAR THIS MORNING THERE ARE MAX GALES TO STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALONG WITH THESES STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTS FROM
INTERIOR PASSES RANGES FROM 50 TO 70 KT. THE MARINE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GALES IN NORTHERN LYNN AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN OTHER N/S CHANNELS AS THE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH GUSTS TO 60 KT FROM
INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST RANGE FROM TAKU INLET TO PORTLAND
CANAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TO WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO BC.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST WITH A TRANSITION FORM THE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FRIDAY, AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND SNOW EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO WET ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WAS THE
GRADIENT DIMINISHES BUT THE COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF WITH A LOW FORMING IN THE N GULF ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND RIDE OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COAST BY SAT THEN
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHILE ELONGATING. BEHIND THIS LOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK GULF QUICKLY AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. THIS FRONT IS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 970 MB
BERING SEA LOW THE DEVELOPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SECOND LOW
FORMING IN THE WESTERN AK GULF WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THESE MID WEEK
SYSTEMS.

STILL EARLY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS OF WITH FIRST SNOW EVENT BUT IT
IS SHAPING UP TO PRODUCE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS IN TO 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE CURRENT
POLAR AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND OVERRUNNING SET UP FROM THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD
PRODUCE A HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIO AND THUS HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THE WEEKEND LOW
RISING INTO THE -2 TO -4 C RANGE WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1260 MB. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MORE
CONDUCIVE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX V. ALL SNOW. SO AS THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

06Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND
SHAPE OF THE FIRST LOW. GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE
AND THUS HAD LOWER POP VALUES THAN NAM OR ECMWF. THE NEW PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELDS WERE CLOSE TO INHERITED, WITH SOME QUESTION FOR
CHANNELS WHERE GEOSTROPHIC FLOW MAY BE MORE DOMINANT THAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SHIFT WINDS MORE THE SOUTH. KEPT WITH WPC GRIDS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE MODELS WITH WARMER TEMPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE NEXT LOW AND LARGER SPREAD BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-029.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 271357
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
457 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS PROMOTING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL IN THE VICINITY OF THE KNIK ARM. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE
RIDGE. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD AND ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED 983 MB
SURFACE LOW TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SPREADING
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS VERY GOOD INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...
ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE
GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN
TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND NORTHERLY FLOW
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE ALL PICKED UP ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND MOVING OVERHEAD OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE AND WILL LIKELY KEEP GAP
WINDS GOING A LITTLE LONGER FROM THE VALDEZ AREA TO THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. HAVE EXTENDED THE STRONGER GAP WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND THEN DROPPED THEM OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT WAS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTH END OF KNIK ARM
(TO AROUND PALMER) AND ALONG EAGLE RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THAT WILL NOT CHANGE TODAY.
THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK DRIFT BUT FOG SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
IN THOSE AREAS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE BERING SEA WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE FOG TO DRIFT DOWN TO ANCHORAGE.
AS ALWAYS...THIS IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS CLOUDS BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A NEUTRALLY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...WHICH MEANS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE WIDESPREAD FOG SEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING HAS LIFTED IN LOW
STRATUS OVER THE INLAND BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AREAS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PROBLEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WITH
THE INCOMING WEAKENING FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND MOVES WEST TO
EAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ON THE BETHEL AND KING SALMON SOUNDING LEND SOME REASONING
TO BELIEVE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED BRIEF POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN AND SNOW.

BY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL HELP TO INITIATE A STEADY
BAND OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY ZONES ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...
WHERE DECENT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

STRONG YET WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN NORTH ACROSS THE
BERING SEA TODAY BRINGING HIGH-END GALES IMPACTING AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE
TRANQUIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG LOW MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE BERING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NEARLY STATIONARY TO PROGRESSIVE WILL BE
OCCURRING ON SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH FROM JAPAN HELPS TO BUILD A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH A TROUGH ACROSS
MAINLAND AK THAT WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE THAT HAS
RESIDED OVER THE STATE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN A
SECOND TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND FURTHER
REINFORCE THE BERING RIDGE. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN CUT OFF
AND SPIN IN THE BERING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM
THE EASTERN BERING TO BRITISH COLUMBIA MON THROUGH WED...FINALLY
ALLOWING THE BERING CUT-OFF TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN BY MIDWEEK.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF ALL THIS ACTION WILL BE A FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE MAINLAND ON SAT...A RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK
AS A TROUGH...AND A MASSIVE LOW THAT CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS ON SUN
AND PINWHEELS IN THE BERING UNTIL FINALLY EXITING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE INTO WED.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SOLUTION AS ALL MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND ON SAT...BRINGING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION BEFORE EXITING THE STATE. THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE EC AND GFS ARE ALSO PERSISTENTLY SHOWING A PINWHEELING
LOW IN THE BERING...WITH SOME QUESTION REMAINING ON THE EXACT
TRAJECTORY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
LEANING ON A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND THE EC. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN AND AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SAT
INTO TUE. ON MON AND TUE STRONG WINDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
LOW WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS



000
FXAK68 PAFC 270107
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
407 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALASKA. THERE IS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ALASKA ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. TO THE WEST THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING WITH A WEAKENING FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ALASKAN WEST COAST.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF ADAK IS RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTH. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALEUTAINS JUST WEST OF
UMNAK ISLAND...INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHERE IT BENDS BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (12Z SATURDAY) THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO 84 HOURS.
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF A LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS IN THE 72-84 HOUR TIME FRAME...BUT LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS AROUND COOK INLET...THE COPPER BASIN...AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. OUTFLOW GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE
STRONGEST GAP WINDS WILL BE ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO
VALDEZ...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS A
WHOLE...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW GALE FORCE. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS COOK INLET INTO THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AS LINGERING CLOUDS GET TRAPPED ALONG THE
WESTERN FACING MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING
INVERSIONS AND MOISTENING FROM THE KNIK ARM AND COOK INLET. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND DENSITY OF THE
FOG...BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT VALLEY.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF FRIDAY
MORNING...SPREADING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FROM
KODIAK TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS
A FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE BERING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING PRIMARILY SNOW TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH WARMER AIR OVERRUNNING
SOME OF THE MORE PROTECTED AREAS OF COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY
AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK NORTH
LEAVING WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR THAT WILL START TO CHANGE THE
RAIN TO SNOW STARTING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGING IN MORE STEADY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE SEVERAL MORE BROAD
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING EVENTUALLY PUSHING TOWARDS
SOUTH CENTRAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE
LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE BERING THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR
WRAPPING AROUND IT ON FRIDAY WILL DIG A TROUGH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC SOUTH OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT WEAK...TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL ON SATURDAY. MODESTLY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD COINCIDE
WITH THIS SUPPORT TO FINALLY PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR MANY AREAS THAT
WE HAVE SEEN FOR WEEKS. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL IRONING OUT SOME OF
THE CRITICAL DETAILS...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DOES
LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK-HITTER THOUGH
AS IT MOVES TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING.

EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL BULL ITS WAY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN BERING. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IT WILL ALSO PUSH A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE PATTERN RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND
SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE AFORE MENTIONED FRONT.
MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PIVOT OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AS IT TAPS INTO SOME COLDER AIR OFF OF RUSSIA.
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A DECENT SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLY HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...THE LOW WILL
PRODUCE A MASSIVE WARM OCCLUSION THAT WILL HEAD TOWARDS BRISTOL
BAY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL BY LATE MONDAY. WITH
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE AND WARM
AIR OVERRIDING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MESSY PATTERN WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP TYPES.

THE PARENT LOW REJOINS THE 100KT+ JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
TRACKS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO
KEEP AREAS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL RATHER
WARM AND MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181 185 411
               412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MO



000
FXAK68 PAFC 270107
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
407 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALASKA. THERE IS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ALASKA ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. TO THE WEST THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING WITH A WEAKENING FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ALASKAN WEST COAST.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF ADAK IS RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTH. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALEUTAINS JUST WEST OF
UMNAK ISLAND...INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHERE IT BENDS BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (12Z SATURDAY) THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO 84 HOURS.
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF A LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS IN THE 72-84 HOUR TIME FRAME...BUT LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS AROUND COOK INLET...THE COPPER BASIN...AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. OUTFLOW GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE
STRONGEST GAP WINDS WILL BE ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO
VALDEZ...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS A
WHOLE...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW GALE FORCE. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS COOK INLET INTO THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AS LINGERING CLOUDS GET TRAPPED ALONG THE
WESTERN FACING MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING
INVERSIONS AND MOISTENING FROM THE KNIK ARM AND COOK INLET. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND DENSITY OF THE
FOG...BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT VALLEY.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF FRIDAY
MORNING...SPREADING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FROM
KODIAK TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS
A FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE BERING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING PRIMARILY SNOW TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH WARMER AIR OVERRUNNING
SOME OF THE MORE PROTECTED AREAS OF COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY
AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK NORTH
LEAVING WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR THAT WILL START TO CHANGE THE
RAIN TO SNOW STARTING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGING IN MORE STEADY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE SEVERAL MORE BROAD
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING EVENTUALLY PUSHING TOWARDS
SOUTH CENTRAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE
LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE BERING THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR
WRAPPING AROUND IT ON FRIDAY WILL DIG A TROUGH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC SOUTH OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT WEAK...TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL ON SATURDAY. MODESTLY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD COINCIDE
WITH THIS SUPPORT TO FINALLY PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR MANY AREAS THAT
WE HAVE SEEN FOR WEEKS. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL IRONING OUT SOME OF
THE CRITICAL DETAILS...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DOES
LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK-HITTER THOUGH
AS IT MOVES TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING.

EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL BULL ITS WAY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN BERING. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IT WILL ALSO PUSH A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE PATTERN RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND
SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE AFORE MENTIONED FRONT.
MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PIVOT OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AS IT TAPS INTO SOME COLDER AIR OFF OF RUSSIA.
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A DECENT SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLY HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...THE LOW WILL
PRODUCE A MASSIVE WARM OCCLUSION THAT WILL HEAD TOWARDS BRISTOL
BAY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL BY LATE MONDAY. WITH
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE AND WARM
AIR OVERRIDING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MESSY PATTERN WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP TYPES.

THE PARENT LOW REJOINS THE 100KT+ JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
TRACKS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO
KEEP AREAS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL RATHER
WARM AND MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181 185 411
               412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MO




000
FXAK67 PAJK 270033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM....LOOKED CLOSELY AT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NOTORIOUS
TAKU AREAS AROUND JUNEAU AND BEST GUESS IS 40-50 MPH SUSTAINED
FOR THE GENERAL PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE
AS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ANALYSIS USED PRIMARILY THE MTNWMODEL
ROUTINE, DETAILED NAM CROSS SECTIONS, AND HI-RESW-ARW MODEL
PREDICTIONS. SOME MODELS SUGGESTED EVEN HIGHER BUT HISTORICALLY
THEY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO OTHERS
HERE WITH MORE EXPERIENCE USING THESE MODELS LOCALLY. BOTTOM
LINE...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
55-65 MPH RANGE AND THUS MARGINAL FOR THE HWW. TIME PERIOD OF RISK
SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12Z THURS (CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST) TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING THE WINDS CLOSELY
AROUND JUNEAU THIS EVENING, AS IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF WIND IS
ALREADY A BIT SLOW...AND MAKING MODIFICATIONS IF NECESSARY. WE
MAINTAINED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOUGLAS/JUNEAU. ALSO STRONG
WINDS FOR HYDER ZONE AND SKAGWAY/HAINES PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
MARINES...SLEW OF GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND MAINTAINED STORM FORCE FOR NORTHERN LYNN WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 70 KT. JPFCST CURRENTLY GIVES 10 MB GRADIENT FOR
SKAGWAY- JUNEAU, MAX 15Z THURS, 6 MB JUNEAU- SITKA, MAX 21Z, AND
11MB JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN, MAX 21Z. FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE A THREAT
FOR LYNN CANAL BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT IT WILL NOT GET
INTO THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY WITH UPSTREAM AIR TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 30 DEGF IN THE WINDY SKAGWAY AREA. WE DID
NOT INCLUDE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.

GRIDS REQUIRED ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS NEW MODEL RUNS WERE VERY CONSISTENT ON THE LARGER-SCALE
FEATURES. WIND GRIDS WERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SEVERAL ZONES,
ESP. 25 AND OTHERS IN PRIMARILY THE SOUTH, WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL
LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MAX AND MIN WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS REQUIRED
SOME TIME AND THOUGHT AS SPREADS WILL BE LARGE BETWEEN WIND-
PROTECTED AREAS AND EXPOSED AREAS LIKE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU
DOWNTOWN. THE CHALLENGE WAS CHOOSING WHICH OF THE MARGINAL AREAS
WILL BLOW...WHICH WAS TOUGH AND SHOULD BE MONITORED TONIGHT.
EC/NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PERIOD WITH AVERAGE MODEL
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON- MESOSCALE FEATURES.


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER TH NORTHERN GULF NEAR CENTRAL GULF
CAST BY LAST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AM LOOKING AT AN STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL BE TRYING TO SPREAD A WEATHER BAND
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE START OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN IS
TUESDAY...AND MAY BE STARTING AS SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
SEE IF IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNT.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TO A MORE NORMAL SET OF WINDS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041-042.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 270033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM....LOOKED CLOSELY AT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NOTORIOUS
TAKU AREAS AROUND JUNEAU AND BEST GUESS IS 40-50 MPH SUSTAINED
FOR THE GENERAL PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE
AS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ANALYSIS USED PRIMARILY THE MTNWMODEL
ROUTINE, DETAILED NAM CROSS SECTIONS, AND HI-RESW-ARW MODEL
PREDICTIONS. SOME MODELS SUGGESTED EVEN HIGHER BUT HISTORICALLY
THEY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO OTHERS
HERE WITH MORE EXPERIENCE USING THESE MODELS LOCALLY. BOTTOM
LINE...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
55-65 MPH RANGE AND THUS MARGINAL FOR THE HWW. TIME PERIOD OF RISK
SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12Z THURS (CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST) TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING THE WINDS CLOSELY
AROUND JUNEAU THIS EVENING, AS IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF WIND IS
ALREADY A BIT SLOW...AND MAKING MODIFICATIONS IF NECESSARY. WE
MAINTAINED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOUGLAS/JUNEAU. ALSO STRONG
WINDS FOR HYDER ZONE AND SKAGWAY/HAINES PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
MARINES...SLEW OF GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND MAINTAINED STORM FORCE FOR NORTHERN LYNN WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 70 KT. JPFCST CURRENTLY GIVES 10 MB GRADIENT FOR
SKAGWAY- JUNEAU, MAX 15Z THURS, 6 MB JUNEAU- SITKA, MAX 21Z, AND
11MB JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN, MAX 21Z. FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE A THREAT
FOR LYNN CANAL BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT IT WILL NOT GET
INTO THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY WITH UPSTREAM AIR TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 30 DEGF IN THE WINDY SKAGWAY AREA. WE DID
NOT INCLUDE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.

GRIDS REQUIRED ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS NEW MODEL RUNS WERE VERY CONSISTENT ON THE LARGER-SCALE
FEATURES. WIND GRIDS WERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SEVERAL ZONES,
ESP. 25 AND OTHERS IN PRIMARILY THE SOUTH, WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL
LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MAX AND MIN WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS REQUIRED
SOME TIME AND THOUGHT AS SPREADS WILL BE LARGE BETWEEN WIND-
PROTECTED AREAS AND EXPOSED AREAS LIKE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU
DOWNTOWN. THE CHALLENGE WAS CHOOSING WHICH OF THE MARGINAL AREAS
WILL BLOW...WHICH WAS TOUGH AND SHOULD BE MONITORED TONIGHT.
EC/NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PERIOD WITH AVERAGE MODEL
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON- MESOSCALE FEATURES.


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER TH NORTHERN GULF NEAR CENTRAL GULF
CAST BY LAST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AM LOOKING AT AN STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL BE TRYING TO SPREAD A WEATHER BAND
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE START OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN IS
TUESDAY...AND MAY BE STARTING AS SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
SEE IF IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNT.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TO A MORE NORMAL SET OF WINDS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041-042.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 270033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM....LOOKED CLOSELY AT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NOTORIOUS
TAKU AREAS AROUND JUNEAU AND BEST GUESS IS 40-50 MPH SUSTAINED
FOR THE GENERAL PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE
AS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ANALYSIS USED PRIMARILY THE MTNWMODEL
ROUTINE, DETAILED NAM CROSS SECTIONS, AND HI-RESW-ARW MODEL
PREDICTIONS. SOME MODELS SUGGESTED EVEN HIGHER BUT HISTORICALLY
THEY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO OTHERS
HERE WITH MORE EXPERIENCE USING THESE MODELS LOCALLY. BOTTOM
LINE...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
55-65 MPH RANGE AND THUS MARGINAL FOR THE HWW. TIME PERIOD OF RISK
SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12Z THURS (CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST) TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING THE WINDS CLOSELY
AROUND JUNEAU THIS EVENING, AS IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF WIND IS
ALREADY A BIT SLOW...AND MAKING MODIFICATIONS IF NECESSARY. WE
MAINTAINED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOUGLAS/JUNEAU. ALSO STRONG
WINDS FOR HYDER ZONE AND SKAGWAY/HAINES PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
MARINES...SLEW OF GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND MAINTAINED STORM FORCE FOR NORTHERN LYNN WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 70 KT. JPFCST CURRENTLY GIVES 10 MB GRADIENT FOR
SKAGWAY- JUNEAU, MAX 15Z THURS, 6 MB JUNEAU- SITKA, MAX 21Z, AND
11MB JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN, MAX 21Z. FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE A THREAT
FOR LYNN CANAL BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT IT WILL NOT GET
INTO THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY WITH UPSTREAM AIR TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 30 DEGF IN THE WINDY SKAGWAY AREA. WE DID
NOT INCLUDE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.

GRIDS REQUIRED ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS NEW MODEL RUNS WERE VERY CONSISTENT ON THE LARGER-SCALE
FEATURES. WIND GRIDS WERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SEVERAL ZONES,
ESP. 25 AND OTHERS IN PRIMARILY THE SOUTH, WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL
LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MAX AND MIN WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS REQUIRED
SOME TIME AND THOUGHT AS SPREADS WILL BE LARGE BETWEEN WIND-
PROTECTED AREAS AND EXPOSED AREAS LIKE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU
DOWNTOWN. THE CHALLENGE WAS CHOOSING WHICH OF THE MARGINAL AREAS
WILL BLOW...WHICH WAS TOUGH AND SHOULD BE MONITORED TONIGHT.
EC/NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PERIOD WITH AVERAGE MODEL
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON- MESOSCALE FEATURES.


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER TH NORTHERN GULF NEAR CENTRAL GULF
CAST BY LAST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AM LOOKING AT AN STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL BE TRYING TO SPREAD A WEATHER BAND
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE START OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN IS
TUESDAY...AND MAY BE STARTING AS SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
SEE IF IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNT.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TO A MORE NORMAL SET OF WINDS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041-042.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 270033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM....LOOKED CLOSELY AT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NOTORIOUS
TAKU AREAS AROUND JUNEAU AND BEST GUESS IS 40-50 MPH SUSTAINED
FOR THE GENERAL PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE
AS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ANALYSIS USED PRIMARILY THE MTNWMODEL
ROUTINE, DETAILED NAM CROSS SECTIONS, AND HI-RESW-ARW MODEL
PREDICTIONS. SOME MODELS SUGGESTED EVEN HIGHER BUT HISTORICALLY
THEY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO OTHERS
HERE WITH MORE EXPERIENCE USING THESE MODELS LOCALLY. BOTTOM
LINE...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
55-65 MPH RANGE AND THUS MARGINAL FOR THE HWW. TIME PERIOD OF RISK
SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12Z THURS (CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST) TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING THE WINDS CLOSELY
AROUND JUNEAU THIS EVENING, AS IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF WIND IS
ALREADY A BIT SLOW...AND MAKING MODIFICATIONS IF NECESSARY. WE
MAINTAINED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOUGLAS/JUNEAU. ALSO STRONG
WINDS FOR HYDER ZONE AND SKAGWAY/HAINES PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
MARINES...SLEW OF GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND MAINTAINED STORM FORCE FOR NORTHERN LYNN WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 70 KT. JPFCST CURRENTLY GIVES 10 MB GRADIENT FOR
SKAGWAY- JUNEAU, MAX 15Z THURS, 6 MB JUNEAU- SITKA, MAX 21Z, AND
11MB JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN, MAX 21Z. FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE A THREAT
FOR LYNN CANAL BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT IT WILL NOT GET
INTO THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY WITH UPSTREAM AIR TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 30 DEGF IN THE WINDY SKAGWAY AREA. WE DID
NOT INCLUDE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.

GRIDS REQUIRED ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS NEW MODEL RUNS WERE VERY CONSISTENT ON THE LARGER-SCALE
FEATURES. WIND GRIDS WERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SEVERAL ZONES,
ESP. 25 AND OTHERS IN PRIMARILY THE SOUTH, WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL
LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MAX AND MIN WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS REQUIRED
SOME TIME AND THOUGHT AS SPREADS WILL BE LARGE BETWEEN WIND-
PROTECTED AREAS AND EXPOSED AREAS LIKE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU
DOWNTOWN. THE CHALLENGE WAS CHOOSING WHICH OF THE MARGINAL AREAS
WILL BLOW...WHICH WAS TOUGH AND SHOULD BE MONITORED TONIGHT.
EC/NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PERIOD WITH AVERAGE MODEL
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON- MESOSCALE FEATURES.


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER TH NORTHERN GULF NEAR CENTRAL GULF
CAST BY LAST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AM LOOKING AT AN STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL BE TRYING TO SPREAD A WEATHER BAND
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE START OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN IS
TUESDAY...AND MAY BE STARTING AS SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
SEE IF IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNT.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TO A MORE NORMAL SET OF WINDS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041-042.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 262319
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE
AXIS FROM KODIAK TO WELL NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO BARROW THEN WEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SATURDAY AND AS A TROUGH BEGINS
WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE SOUTH INTERIOR. MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL TRANSITION INTO A
SINGLE 514DM LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF OF ANADYR AND WEAKEN TO 521DM WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING TO SOUTH OF COLD BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS...THE TROUGH WILL BREAK AWAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SURFACE...A 982 MB LOW 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 986 MB. THE LOW WILL BE 998 MB 200 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE BERING
STRAIT AND NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTON SOUND
AND THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF FOG...FLURRIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTHEAST ENTERING THE PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE WEST
COAST AREA. AS LOW PRESSURES CONTINUE TO SPAWN AND MOVE NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL TO EAST BERING SEA THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
STRONG WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS. GALE WINDS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
WATERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND LOWS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO
BRING WAVES NORTH OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW PERIODS FOR ZONES 213 AND 214 AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE
REST OF THE WEST COAST ZONES WILL HAVE MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL END LATE
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER IN VALLEY FLOORS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH INTERIOR AND
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA
RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

DA NOV 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 262319
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE
AXIS FROM KODIAK TO WELL NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO BARROW THEN WEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SATURDAY AND AS A TROUGH BEGINS
WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE SOUTH INTERIOR. MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL TRANSITION INTO A
SINGLE 514DM LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF OF ANADYR AND WEAKEN TO 521DM WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING TO SOUTH OF COLD BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS...THE TROUGH WILL BREAK AWAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SURFACE...A 982 MB LOW 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 986 MB. THE LOW WILL BE 998 MB 200 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE BERING
STRAIT AND NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTON SOUND
AND THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF FOG...FLURRIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTHEAST ENTERING THE PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE WEST
COAST AREA. AS LOW PRESSURES CONTINUE TO SPAWN AND MOVE NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL TO EAST BERING SEA THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
STRONG WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS. GALE WINDS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
WATERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND LOWS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO
BRING WAVES NORTH OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW PERIODS FOR ZONES 213 AND 214 AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE
REST OF THE WEST COAST ZONES WILL HAVE MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL END LATE
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER IN VALLEY FLOORS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH INTERIOR AND
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA
RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

DA NOV 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 261519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE
AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS.
A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE
THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE
THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45
MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD
GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT
WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM
IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS
AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST
GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL
LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S
ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N
LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND,
AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 261519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE
AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS.
A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE
THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE
THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45
MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD
GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT
WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM
IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS
AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST
GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL
LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S
ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N
LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND,
AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 261519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE
AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS.
A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE
THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE
THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45
MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD
GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT
WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM
IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS
AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST
GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL
LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S
ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N
LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND,
AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 261519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE
AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS.
A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE
THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE
THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45
MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD
GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT
WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM
IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS
AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST
GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL
LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S
ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N
LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND,
AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK68 PAFC 261410
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND A STOUT
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THREE DISTINCT LOWS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BERING TROUGH ARE SPREADING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS OVER
A WIDE SWATH OF THE BERING. THE MAIN LOW IS ANCHORED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...WITH TWO ADDITIONAL LOWS ROUNDING THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE. THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES IS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE TRACKING JUST WEST OF
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
BERING. ANOTHER STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. A SUBTLE MESOSCALE
FEATURE OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH FAVORED
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...LENDING AN ABOVE AVERAGE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAINLY USED THE GFS FOR THE SYSTEMS OVER
THE BERING AND THE GEM REGIONAL/NAM OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
AK FOR THEIR SUPERIOR HANDLING OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS.

&&

CB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME COLDER
AIR HAS FILTERED THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH OF AN OFFSHORE PUSH OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAVE CLEARED OUT BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

THIS WILL CHANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION
THANKS TO A COUPLE OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS AMPLIFICATION
WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WHICH WILL FORCE COLDER AIR OVER INTERIOR ALASKA SOUTHWARD INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS WON`T BE A VERY DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS
SO COLD ADVECTION OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE WEAK. THAT
MEANS THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A GAP WIND EVENT AND WINDS WON`T
EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE EXIT OF THE GAPS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SO GAP WINDS WILL HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION AND COPPER
RIVER DELTA.

MEANWHILE...BACK OVER COOK INLET THE SHIFT TOWARD MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP KICK SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT NOT ALL. FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. AS SKY COVER DECREASES
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND HELP STEEPEN INVERSIONS.
THUS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY OVER COOK
INLET INCLUDING KNIK AND TURNAGAIN ARMS. DETERMINING THE EXACT
LOCATION AND EXTENT OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR CLOUD COVER...FOG...AND
TEMPERATURES FROM THE ANCHORAGE AREA ON DOWN TO KENAI AND SOLDOTNA
IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRAZE THE
COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE
NEXT FRONT MOVING INLAND THURSDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND/OR SNOW TO BETHEL AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES. WITH A LOW-LEVEL WARM SLOT SUGGESTED BY
MODELS...INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THIS AREA.

TOWARD BRISTOL BAY...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO PUSH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO NEAR
THE SURFACE...TRAPPING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH THE DAY...SO
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS WELL.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND/OR
SNOW...WITH THIS THREAT SLOWLY EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MAIN IMPACTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AS TWO POWERFUL STORM-FORCE LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW IN
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING IS PACKING QUITE A PUNCH WITH
STORM-FORCE WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 25 FEET JUST SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE PRIBILOFS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH QUICKLY AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN BERING...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM-FORCE LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATER TODAY AND THEN THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-END GALES. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
BRING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ON FRI UPPER TROUGHS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WELL SOUTH OF
KAMCHATKA BEGIN MOVING. BY LATE SAT THE TROUGHS MERGE EAST OF
KAMCHATKA...REMAIN OVER THE BERING THROUGH TUE AND THEN CROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
MERGER AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING AND REPLACES THE
RIDGE OVER MAINLAND AK EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A DECAYING
LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHERN BERING BY FRI NIGHT. ON SAT THE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA MOVES INTO
THE BERING. AT THIS POINT MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES A WIDE VARIETY OF
POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR THE LOW...RESULTING IN LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN A
SOLUTION. THE FORECAST UTILIZES WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS THE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN
IT RETURNS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPS BY SUN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND BY TUE NIGHT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE GULF
COAST.

THE GULF COAST WILL BE GENERALLY WET THROUGH TUE...WITH SOME RAIN
AND SNOW CROSSING THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ONLY ON
SAT. SOUTHWEST AK WILL HAVE SNOW MIXING ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN
AT TIMES INTO SAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON SUN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AND THEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL AFFECT THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
MON AND TUE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE KUSKOKWIM ZONES. THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE SOME DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRI. RAIN AND WIND THEN RETURN ON SAT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 176 179 185
         GALES 127 170 172 173 174 175 177 178 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS




000
FXAK68 PAFC 261410
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND A STOUT
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THREE DISTINCT LOWS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BERING TROUGH ARE SPREADING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS OVER
A WIDE SWATH OF THE BERING. THE MAIN LOW IS ANCHORED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...WITH TWO ADDITIONAL LOWS ROUNDING THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE. THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES IS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE TRACKING JUST WEST OF
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
BERING. ANOTHER STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. A SUBTLE MESOSCALE
FEATURE OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH FAVORED
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...LENDING AN ABOVE AVERAGE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAINLY USED THE GFS FOR THE SYSTEMS OVER
THE BERING AND THE GEM REGIONAL/NAM OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
AK FOR THEIR SUPERIOR HANDLING OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS.

&&

CB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME COLDER
AIR HAS FILTERED THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH OF AN OFFSHORE PUSH OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAVE CLEARED OUT BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

THIS WILL CHANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION
THANKS TO A COUPLE OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS AMPLIFICATION
WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WHICH WILL FORCE COLDER AIR OVER INTERIOR ALASKA SOUTHWARD INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS WON`T BE A VERY DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS
SO COLD ADVECTION OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE WEAK. THAT
MEANS THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A GAP WIND EVENT AND WINDS WON`T
EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE EXIT OF THE GAPS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SO GAP WINDS WILL HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION AND COPPER
RIVER DELTA.

MEANWHILE...BACK OVER COOK INLET THE SHIFT TOWARD MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP KICK SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT NOT ALL. FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. AS SKY COVER DECREASES
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND HELP STEEPEN INVERSIONS.
THUS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY OVER COOK
INLET INCLUDING KNIK AND TURNAGAIN ARMS. DETERMINING THE EXACT
LOCATION AND EXTENT OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR CLOUD COVER...FOG...AND
TEMPERATURES FROM THE ANCHORAGE AREA ON DOWN TO KENAI AND SOLDOTNA
IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRAZE THE
COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE
NEXT FRONT MOVING INLAND THURSDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND/OR SNOW TO BETHEL AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES. WITH A LOW-LEVEL WARM SLOT SUGGESTED BY
MODELS...INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THIS AREA.

TOWARD BRISTOL BAY...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO PUSH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO NEAR
THE SURFACE...TRAPPING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH THE DAY...SO
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS WELL.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND/OR
SNOW...WITH THIS THREAT SLOWLY EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MAIN IMPACTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AS TWO POWERFUL STORM-FORCE LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW IN
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING IS PACKING QUITE A PUNCH WITH
STORM-FORCE WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 25 FEET JUST SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE PRIBILOFS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH QUICKLY AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN BERING...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM-FORCE LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATER TODAY AND THEN THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-END GALES. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
BRING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ON FRI UPPER TROUGHS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WELL SOUTH OF
KAMCHATKA BEGIN MOVING. BY LATE SAT THE TROUGHS MERGE EAST OF
KAMCHATKA...REMAIN OVER THE BERING THROUGH TUE AND THEN CROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
MERGER AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING AND REPLACES THE
RIDGE OVER MAINLAND AK EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A DECAYING
LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHERN BERING BY FRI NIGHT. ON SAT THE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA MOVES INTO
THE BERING. AT THIS POINT MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES A WIDE VARIETY OF
POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR THE LOW...RESULTING IN LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN A
SOLUTION. THE FORECAST UTILIZES WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS THE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN
IT RETURNS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPS BY SUN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND BY TUE NIGHT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE GULF
COAST.

THE GULF COAST WILL BE GENERALLY WET THROUGH TUE...WITH SOME RAIN
AND SNOW CROSSING THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ONLY ON
SAT. SOUTHWEST AK WILL HAVE SNOW MIXING ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN
AT TIMES INTO SAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON SUN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AND THEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL AFFECT THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
MON AND TUE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE KUSKOKWIM ZONES. THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE SOME DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRI. RAIN AND WIND THEN RETURN ON SAT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 176 179 185
         GALES 127 170 172 173 174 175 177 178 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS



000
FXAK69 PAFG 261310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD
BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A NEW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

SURFACE...
A 992 MB LOW 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 400 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
NAVARIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. A 980 MB LOW 299 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 100 MILES WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY THU
AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO 987 MB. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND 950 MB WILL BE NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING OVER ZONES 213 AND 214 THIS MORNING...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER OVER ZONES 211-212-WESTERN ZONE 215 THIS
MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 213-214 TO RUN THROUGH NOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND
950 MB ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

LITTLE OR NO SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE
THROUGH FRI.

THE LATER PARTS OF THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE
GENERAL TREND TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD TROUGH ALOFT EXPANDS WESTWARD
OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 HEIGHT PROGS VALID MON AND TUE AFTERNOON...
SHOWING A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MACKENZIE
DELTA AREA ACROSS ALASKA AND HEIGHTS FALLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. AT 850 MB...ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE -12C TO -20C RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND BY TUE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RF NOV 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 261310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD
BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A NEW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

SURFACE...
A 992 MB LOW 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 400 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
NAVARIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. A 980 MB LOW 299 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 100 MILES WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY THU
AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO 987 MB. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND 950 MB WILL BE NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING OVER ZONES 213 AND 214 THIS MORNING...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER OVER ZONES 211-212-WESTERN ZONE 215 THIS
MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 213-214 TO RUN THROUGH NOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND
950 MB ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

LITTLE OR NO SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE
THROUGH FRI.

THE LATER PARTS OF THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE
GENERAL TREND TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD TROUGH ALOFT EXPANDS WESTWARD
OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 HEIGHT PROGS VALID MON AND TUE AFTERNOON...
SHOWING A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MACKENZIE
DELTA AREA ACROSS ALASKA AND HEIGHTS FALLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. AT 850 MB...ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE -12C TO -20C RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND BY TUE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RF NOV 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 260259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
559 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP (506 DM AT 500 MB) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WITH TWO DEVELOPING LOWS AROUND IT...ONE JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ON SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA. THERE IS A TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL "WAVE" IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND SUCH
AS THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THIS LEADS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MODELS OF CHOICE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST ARE THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FOR THEIR BETTER
HANDLING OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COOK INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...WHICH
WILL HELP TO INCREASE GAP WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR COOK INLET AS THE HIGH BUILDS ALOFT...BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DUE IN LARGE PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
RADIATE OUT MORE OVERNIGHT THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. IN THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AT THIS
TIME AS THE 00Z RAOB FROM PABE SHOWS THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER THAT BROUGHT AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DILLINGHAM AND SURROUNDING AREAS REMAINS INLAND AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WILL HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS TO SATURATE LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUE TO MAKE
QUICK PROGRESS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
BERING SEA. IN ADDITION...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
GALES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SECOND LOW FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING. THIS IN TURN WILL FORM A COMPLEX LOW PATTERN OVER
THE BERING SEA...WHICH WILL KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BY FRIDAY...THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERAL
PATTERN RECENTLY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL BEGIN LATE ON
FRIDAY AS THE BERING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT...AND RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE
BERING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER TOP
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE COULD BRING SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS BEYOND JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN A LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF MERGES WITH AN ARCTIC
TROUGH DESCENDING THROUGH THE MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST...EASTERN
BERING...AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND NEXT WEEK. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL NOT
REFORM ANYWHERE FROM THE MAINLAND OR NORTHWEST CANADA NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENT PATTERN MUCH ALASKA HAS
BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...A CLEAR
SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PATTERN CHANGE.
THIS LACK OF RIDGING WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE DEEP MOIST/WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW...INCREASING SNOW CHANCES OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 260259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
559 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP (506 DM AT 500 MB) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WITH TWO DEVELOPING LOWS AROUND IT...ONE JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ON SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA. THERE IS A TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL "WAVE" IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND SUCH
AS THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THIS LEADS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MODELS OF CHOICE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST ARE THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FOR THEIR BETTER
HANDLING OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COOK INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...WHICH
WILL HELP TO INCREASE GAP WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR COOK INLET AS THE HIGH BUILDS ALOFT...BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DUE IN LARGE PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
RADIATE OUT MORE OVERNIGHT THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. IN THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AT THIS
TIME AS THE 00Z RAOB FROM PABE SHOWS THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER THAT BROUGHT AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DILLINGHAM AND SURROUNDING AREAS REMAINS INLAND AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WILL HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS TO SATURATE LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUE TO MAKE
QUICK PROGRESS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
BERING SEA. IN ADDITION...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
GALES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SECOND LOW FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING. THIS IN TURN WILL FORM A COMPLEX LOW PATTERN OVER
THE BERING SEA...WHICH WILL KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BY FRIDAY...THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERAL
PATTERN RECENTLY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL BEGIN LATE ON
FRIDAY AS THE BERING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT...AND RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE
BERING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER TOP
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE COULD BRING SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS BEYOND JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN A LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF MERGES WITH AN ARCTIC
TROUGH DESCENDING THROUGH THE MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST...EASTERN
BERING...AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND NEXT WEEK. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL NOT
REFORM ANYWHERE FROM THE MAINLAND OR NORTHWEST CANADA NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENT PATTERN MUCH ALASKA HAS
BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...A CLEAR
SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PATTERN CHANGE.
THIS LACK OF RIDGING WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE DEEP MOIST/WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW...INCREASING SNOW CHANCES OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 260259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
559 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP (506 DM AT 500 MB) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WITH TWO DEVELOPING LOWS AROUND IT...ONE JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ON SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA. THERE IS A TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL "WAVE" IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND SUCH
AS THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THIS LEADS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MODELS OF CHOICE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST ARE THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FOR THEIR BETTER
HANDLING OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COOK INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...WHICH
WILL HELP TO INCREASE GAP WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR COOK INLET AS THE HIGH BUILDS ALOFT...BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DUE IN LARGE PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
RADIATE OUT MORE OVERNIGHT THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. IN THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AT THIS
TIME AS THE 00Z RAOB FROM PABE SHOWS THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER THAT BROUGHT AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DILLINGHAM AND SURROUNDING AREAS REMAINS INLAND AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WILL HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS TO SATURATE LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUE TO MAKE
QUICK PROGRESS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
BERING SEA. IN ADDITION...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
GALES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SECOND LOW FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING. THIS IN TURN WILL FORM A COMPLEX LOW PATTERN OVER
THE BERING SEA...WHICH WILL KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BY FRIDAY...THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERAL
PATTERN RECENTLY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL BEGIN LATE ON
FRIDAY AS THE BERING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT...AND RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE
BERING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER TOP
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE COULD BRING SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS BEYOND JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN A LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF MERGES WITH AN ARCTIC
TROUGH DESCENDING THROUGH THE MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST...EASTERN
BERING...AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND NEXT WEEK. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL NOT
REFORM ANYWHERE FROM THE MAINLAND OR NORTHWEST CANADA NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENT PATTERN MUCH ALASKA HAS
BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...A CLEAR
SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PATTERN CHANGE.
THIS LACK OF RIDGING WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE DEEP MOIST/WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW...INCREASING SNOW CHANCES OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 260259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
559 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP (506 DM AT 500 MB) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WITH TWO DEVELOPING LOWS AROUND IT...ONE JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ON SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA. THERE IS A TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL "WAVE" IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND SUCH
AS THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THIS LEADS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MODELS OF CHOICE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST ARE THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FOR THEIR BETTER
HANDLING OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COOK INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...WHICH
WILL HELP TO INCREASE GAP WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR COOK INLET AS THE HIGH BUILDS ALOFT...BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DUE IN LARGE PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
RADIATE OUT MORE OVERNIGHT THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. IN THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AT THIS
TIME AS THE 00Z RAOB FROM PABE SHOWS THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER THAT BROUGHT AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DILLINGHAM AND SURROUNDING AREAS REMAINS INLAND AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WILL HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS TO SATURATE LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUE TO MAKE
QUICK PROGRESS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
BERING SEA. IN ADDITION...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
GALES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SECOND LOW FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING. THIS IN TURN WILL FORM A COMPLEX LOW PATTERN OVER
THE BERING SEA...WHICH WILL KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BY FRIDAY...THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERAL
PATTERN RECENTLY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL BEGIN LATE ON
FRIDAY AS THE BERING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT...AND RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE
BERING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER TOP
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE COULD BRING SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS BEYOND JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN A LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF MERGES WITH AN ARCTIC
TROUGH DESCENDING THROUGH THE MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST...EASTERN
BERING...AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND NEXT WEEK. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL NOT
REFORM ANYWHERE FROM THE MAINLAND OR NORTHWEST CANADA NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENT PATTERN MUCH ALASKA HAS
BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...A CLEAR
SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PATTERN CHANGE.
THIS LACK OF RIDGING WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE DEEP MOIST/WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW...INCREASING SNOW CHANCES OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXAK69 PAFG 260054 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGE
BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND TO NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO NEAR
WRANGEL ISLAND. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TO THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
BERING SEA WITH 508DM CENTER IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 513DM CENTER IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A 521DM LOW WILL BE
CENTERED 250NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY.

SURFACE...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND NORTON SOUND LATE TONIGHT. A 990 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO A
TROUGH OVER CAPE NAVARIN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ANADYR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY. A 1036
MB HIGH CENTERED 250 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL BUILD TO A 1039
MB HIGH CENTERED 160 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRUDHOE BAY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES OF CANADA. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTH SLOPE...LIGHT WINDS...FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST...WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SNOW AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE INCH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
ZONES 213 AND 214 AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER MARINE ZONE 210
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL HAVE LESS SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE
FIRST FRONT.

INTERIOR...SNOW WILL TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES OF SNOW OUT OF THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY AND MOVING EAST...BUT MODELS ARE NOT YET IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

DA NOV 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 260054 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGE
BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND TO NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO NEAR
WRANGEL ISLAND. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TO THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
BERING SEA WITH 508DM CENTER IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 513DM CENTER IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A 521DM LOW WILL BE
CENTERED 250NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY.

SURFACE...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND NORTON SOUND LATE TONIGHT. A 990 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO A
TROUGH OVER CAPE NAVARIN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ANADYR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY. A 1036
MB HIGH CENTERED 250 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL BUILD TO A 1039
MB HIGH CENTERED 160 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRUDHOE BAY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES OF CANADA. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTH SLOPE...LIGHT WINDS...FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST...WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SNOW AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE INCH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
ZONES 213 AND 214 AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER MARINE ZONE 210
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL HAVE LESS SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE
FIRST FRONT.

INTERIOR...SNOW WILL TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES OF SNOW OUT OF THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY AND MOVING EAST...BUT MODELS ARE NOT YET IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

DA NOV 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 252350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER YUKON BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
FORM OVER PART OF THE PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG,
WRANGELL, ANGOON, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND ELFIN COVE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.

 AS THE YUKON HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN
SKAGWAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
MOUNTAIN PASSES. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR YAKUTAT
AREA WILL DIP TO THE LOW 20S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN SKAGWAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S, AS NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
DO EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. APPROXIMATELY AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST OM WEDNESDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING A BUILDING HIGH FROM YUKON INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UTILIZED A BLEND OF GEM/NAM WHEN REFRESHING THE
INHERITED GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...DRYING TREND FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT AND STRONG WINDS IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARE
LIKELY BY LATE THURSDAY AREA-WIDE...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG CROSS-BARRIER OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FAVORED AREAS. AT THIS POINT
EXPECT MOSTLY BORA CONDITIONS IN THE TAKU-EXPOSED AREAS WITHOUT A
WELL-DEFINED CRITICAL LEVEL AT THIS POINT ON THE MODELS...AND
THIS MIGHT LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW-
LEVEL ACCELERATION AND WIND SHEAR. EVEN SO...WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 60MPH+ IN THE JUNEAU
ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA. GUSTS FOR EXPOSED AREAS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE
LATTER ZONE. FOR MARINE ZONES...FREEZING SPRAY MAY BE A PROBLEM
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE OFFSHORE AIR MASS ENDS UP...WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN MID-40S...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BY WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT WE
HAVE SEVERAL GALES ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND STORM-
FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...DEBATED ON THIS AND DECIDED THAT GRADIENTS MAY END UP
EVEN STRONGER THAN THE STRONG VALUES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE
VALUE IS CURRENTLY 10MB FOR SKAGWAY- JUNEAU ON THE NAM12 AND 12MB
FOR JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50-60MPH FROM THE TYPICAL
PASSES ADJACENT TO COMMUNITIES AND INNER CHANNELS WERE MENTIONED
IN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH LATE WED BUT WED-THURS NIGHT
LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON LOCAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT OVER MANY AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. UTILIZED NAM/EC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3-5
FOR SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND THERMAL FIELDS AND FOR QPF
UPDATES. AFTER THAT POINT MERGED TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST POST- COLD MOISTURE FIELDS IS LOW.
THE EC FOR EXAMPLE HAS SNOW MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT THE GFS NOW DELAYS THIS UNTIL MON- TUES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING EARLY WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-036-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RCL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 252350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER YUKON BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
FORM OVER PART OF THE PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG,
WRANGELL, ANGOON, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND ELFIN COVE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.

 AS THE YUKON HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN
SKAGWAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
MOUNTAIN PASSES. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR YAKUTAT
AREA WILL DIP TO THE LOW 20S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN SKAGWAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S, AS NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
DO EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. APPROXIMATELY AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST OM WEDNESDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING A BUILDING HIGH FROM YUKON INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UTILIZED A BLEND OF GEM/NAM WHEN REFRESHING THE
INHERITED GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...DRYING TREND FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT AND STRONG WINDS IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARE
LIKELY BY LATE THURSDAY AREA-WIDE...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG CROSS-BARRIER OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FAVORED AREAS. AT THIS POINT
EXPECT MOSTLY BORA CONDITIONS IN THE TAKU-EXPOSED AREAS WITHOUT A
WELL-DEFINED CRITICAL LEVEL AT THIS POINT ON THE MODELS...AND
THIS MIGHT LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW-
LEVEL ACCELERATION AND WIND SHEAR. EVEN SO...WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 60MPH+ IN THE JUNEAU
ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA. GUSTS FOR EXPOSED AREAS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE
LATTER ZONE. FOR MARINE ZONES...FREEZING SPRAY MAY BE A PROBLEM
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE OFFSHORE AIR MASS ENDS UP...WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN MID-40S...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BY WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT WE
HAVE SEVERAL GALES ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND STORM-
FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...DEBATED ON THIS AND DECIDED THAT GRADIENTS MAY END UP
EVEN STRONGER THAN THE STRONG VALUES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE
VALUE IS CURRENTLY 10MB FOR SKAGWAY- JUNEAU ON THE NAM12 AND 12MB
FOR JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50-60MPH FROM THE TYPICAL
PASSES ADJACENT TO COMMUNITIES AND INNER CHANNELS WERE MENTIONED
IN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH LATE WED BUT WED-THURS NIGHT
LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON LOCAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT OVER MANY AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. UTILIZED NAM/EC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3-5
FOR SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND THERMAL FIELDS AND FOR QPF
UPDATES. AFTER THAT POINT MERGED TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST POST- COLD MOISTURE FIELDS IS LOW.
THE EC FOR EXAMPLE HAS SNOW MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT THE GFS NOW DELAYS THIS UNTIL MON- TUES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING EARLY WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-036-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RCL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 252350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER YUKON BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
FORM OVER PART OF THE PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG,
WRANGELL, ANGOON, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND ELFIN COVE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.

 AS THE YUKON HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN
SKAGWAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
MOUNTAIN PASSES. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR YAKUTAT
AREA WILL DIP TO THE LOW 20S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN SKAGWAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S, AS NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
DO EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. APPROXIMATELY AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST OM WEDNESDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING A BUILDING HIGH FROM YUKON INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UTILIZED A BLEND OF GEM/NAM WHEN REFRESHING THE
INHERITED GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...DRYING TREND FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT AND STRONG WINDS IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARE
LIKELY BY LATE THURSDAY AREA-WIDE...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG CROSS-BARRIER OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FAVORED AREAS. AT THIS POINT
EXPECT MOSTLY BORA CONDITIONS IN THE TAKU-EXPOSED AREAS WITHOUT A
WELL-DEFINED CRITICAL LEVEL AT THIS POINT ON THE MODELS...AND
THIS MIGHT LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW-
LEVEL ACCELERATION AND WIND SHEAR. EVEN SO...WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 60MPH+ IN THE JUNEAU
ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA. GUSTS FOR EXPOSED AREAS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE
LATTER ZONE. FOR MARINE ZONES...FREEZING SPRAY MAY BE A PROBLEM
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE OFFSHORE AIR MASS ENDS UP...WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN MID-40S...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BY WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT WE
HAVE SEVERAL GALES ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND STORM-
FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...DEBATED ON THIS AND DECIDED THAT GRADIENTS MAY END UP
EVEN STRONGER THAN THE STRONG VALUES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE
VALUE IS CURRENTLY 10MB FOR SKAGWAY- JUNEAU ON THE NAM12 AND 12MB
FOR JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50-60MPH FROM THE TYPICAL
PASSES ADJACENT TO COMMUNITIES AND INNER CHANNELS WERE MENTIONED
IN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH LATE WED BUT WED-THURS NIGHT
LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON LOCAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT OVER MANY AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. UTILIZED NAM/EC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3-5
FOR SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND THERMAL FIELDS AND FOR QPF
UPDATES. AFTER THAT POINT MERGED TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST POST- COLD MOISTURE FIELDS IS LOW.
THE EC FOR EXAMPLE HAS SNOW MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT THE GFS NOW DELAYS THIS UNTIL MON- TUES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING EARLY WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-036-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RCL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 252350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER YUKON BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
FORM OVER PART OF THE PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG,
WRANGELL, ANGOON, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND ELFIN COVE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.

 AS THE YUKON HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN
SKAGWAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
MOUNTAIN PASSES. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR YAKUTAT
AREA WILL DIP TO THE LOW 20S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN SKAGWAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S, AS NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
DO EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. APPROXIMATELY AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST OM WEDNESDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING A BUILDING HIGH FROM YUKON INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UTILIZED A BLEND OF GEM/NAM WHEN REFRESHING THE
INHERITED GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...DRYING TREND FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT AND STRONG WINDS IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARE
LIKELY BY LATE THURSDAY AREA-WIDE...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG CROSS-BARRIER OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FAVORED AREAS. AT THIS POINT
EXPECT MOSTLY BORA CONDITIONS IN THE TAKU-EXPOSED AREAS WITHOUT A
WELL-DEFINED CRITICAL LEVEL AT THIS POINT ON THE MODELS...AND
THIS MIGHT LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW-
LEVEL ACCELERATION AND WIND SHEAR. EVEN SO...WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 60MPH+ IN THE JUNEAU
ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA. GUSTS FOR EXPOSED AREAS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE
LATTER ZONE. FOR MARINE ZONES...FREEZING SPRAY MAY BE A PROBLEM
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE OFFSHORE AIR MASS ENDS UP...WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN MID-40S...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BY WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT WE
HAVE SEVERAL GALES ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND STORM-
FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...DEBATED ON THIS AND DECIDED THAT GRADIENTS MAY END UP
EVEN STRONGER THAN THE STRONG VALUES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE
VALUE IS CURRENTLY 10MB FOR SKAGWAY- JUNEAU ON THE NAM12 AND 12MB
FOR JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50-60MPH FROM THE TYPICAL
PASSES ADJACENT TO COMMUNITIES AND INNER CHANNELS WERE MENTIONED
IN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH LATE WED BUT WED-THURS NIGHT
LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON LOCAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT OVER MANY AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. UTILIZED NAM/EC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3-5
FOR SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND THERMAL FIELDS AND FOR QPF
UPDATES. AFTER THAT POINT MERGED TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST POST- COLD MOISTURE FIELDS IS LOW.
THE EC FOR EXAMPLE HAS SNOW MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT THE GFS NOW DELAYS THIS UNTIL MON- TUES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING EARLY WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-036-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RCL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










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