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000
FXAK67 PAJK 201358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER LOW IS SPEEDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND CHICHAGOF ISLAND LATE
THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
WINDS AND GALES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. DEFINITE
VERIFICATION WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
AND TO 50 MPH ON PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. LINCOLN ROCK IS GUSTING TO
HURRICANE FORCE AT THIS HOUR. THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...FLIPPING WIND NORTHERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW MAKES LANDFALL. THINK THE SETUP AROUND JUNEAU WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE RIPE FOR SOME STRONG GUSTINESS AROUND MID-DAY WITH GALES BACK
SIDE OF DOUGLAS...PROBABLY EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW...AS IT IS A BIT FASTER,
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN JUNEAU COULD OCCUR BEFORE NOON. STILL KEPT
THE STRONG WINDS FOR SKAGWAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AS IT MAKES SENSE
WITH THE RIDGE POPPING UP BEHIND THE DIMINISHED LOW`S EXIT INTO
CANADA.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FIRST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FLIPS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BACK TO NORTH.

THE BAND OF RAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME NEGATIVE TILTING THUS ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN
TO PUSH NORTH AGAIN WITH A FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST GENERALLY SOUTH/EAST OF PETERSBURG THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE ADVANCING TO JUNEAU/TENAKEE/SITKA LATE TONIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS AND YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT, BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH WITH THE ADVANCING LOW THIS MORNING TO HELP PUSH THIS THREAT
OUT OF OUR CWA TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.

SOME CREEKS ARE RISING THIS MORNING...OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...NOTABLY THE STANEY NEAR KLAWOCK. THESE WILL BE MONITORED
TODAY. BUT STILL SEVERAL FEET BELOW ACTION.

NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES...MAINLY TODAY TO HELP DRIVE THE
SYSTEM`S WINDS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD TO AVERAGE.



.LONG TERM...MOST OF THE 00Z RUNS HAD A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SUNDAY
AS DEVELOPING LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAD VARY INTENSITIES AND POST IONS BU MOST AGREED THE LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP TO AT LEAST THE MID 970S. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS THE QUICKEN THE PACE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ALSO STRENGTHENED THE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT TO MAX GALES AND SOME
MIN STORM FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL WATERS. PULLING
NORTHWARD FROM ITS SOURCE REGION IT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GOOD
RAINFALL AS THE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD BE UP DO NOT THINK FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD EXPECT A BAND OF STORM FORCE ALONG THE
FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW REACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG WIND ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT
PATH OF THE LOW SHOULD DRIVE SEAS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
NOW MOST ARE 20 TO 25 FEET BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHER NUMBERS.

WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING ANOTHER ROUND STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR
COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT... OR IF THE FRONT REMAINS AS STRONG AS
IT LOOKS IT MIGHT MIGHT EVEN BE STEP UP TO TO BIGGER ISSUES.

LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED AND THE JET STREAM HAS THE FLOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE GULF
TOWARD THE VANCOUVER ISLAND ARE A PULLS SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS HAS SHIFTED MUCH FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THAT FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY RISING BUT HOVERING AT AVERAGE NOW
AND AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME FRAMES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051>053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 201358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER LOW IS SPEEDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND CHICHAGOF ISLAND LATE
THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
WINDS AND GALES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. DEFINITE
VERIFICATION WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
AND TO 50 MPH ON PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. LINCOLN ROCK IS GUSTING TO
HURRICANE FORCE AT THIS HOUR. THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...FLIPPING WIND NORTHERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW MAKES LANDFALL. THINK THE SETUP AROUND JUNEAU WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE RIPE FOR SOME STRONG GUSTINESS AROUND MID-DAY WITH GALES BACK
SIDE OF DOUGLAS...PROBABLY EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW...AS IT IS A BIT FASTER,
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN JUNEAU COULD OCCUR BEFORE NOON. STILL KEPT
THE STRONG WINDS FOR SKAGWAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AS IT MAKES SENSE
WITH THE RIDGE POPPING UP BEHIND THE DIMINISHED LOW`S EXIT INTO
CANADA.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FIRST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FLIPS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BACK TO NORTH.

THE BAND OF RAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME NEGATIVE TILTING THUS ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN
TO PUSH NORTH AGAIN WITH A FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST GENERALLY SOUTH/EAST OF PETERSBURG THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE ADVANCING TO JUNEAU/TENAKEE/SITKA LATE TONIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS AND YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT, BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH WITH THE ADVANCING LOW THIS MORNING TO HELP PUSH THIS THREAT
OUT OF OUR CWA TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.

SOME CREEKS ARE RISING THIS MORNING...OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...NOTABLY THE STANEY NEAR KLAWOCK. THESE WILL BE MONITORED
TODAY. BUT STILL SEVERAL FEET BELOW ACTION.

NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES...MAINLY TODAY TO HELP DRIVE THE
SYSTEM`S WINDS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD TO AVERAGE.



.LONG TERM...MOST OF THE 00Z RUNS HAD A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SUNDAY
AS DEVELOPING LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAD VARY INTENSITIES AND POST IONS BU MOST AGREED THE LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP TO AT LEAST THE MID 970S. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS THE QUICKEN THE PACE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ALSO STRENGTHENED THE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT TO MAX GALES AND SOME
MIN STORM FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL WATERS. PULLING
NORTHWARD FROM ITS SOURCE REGION IT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GOOD
RAINFALL AS THE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD BE UP DO NOT THINK FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD EXPECT A BAND OF STORM FORCE ALONG THE
FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW REACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG WIND ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT
PATH OF THE LOW SHOULD DRIVE SEAS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
NOW MOST ARE 20 TO 25 FEET BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHER NUMBERS.

WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING ANOTHER ROUND STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR
COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT... OR IF THE FRONT REMAINS AS STRONG AS
IT LOOKS IT MIGHT MIGHT EVEN BE STEP UP TO TO BIGGER ISSUES.

LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED AND THE JET STREAM HAS THE FLOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE GULF
TOWARD THE VANCOUVER ISLAND ARE A PULLS SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS HAS SHIFTED MUCH FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THAT FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY RISING BUT HOVERING AT AVERAGE NOW
AND AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME FRAMES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051>053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 201246
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT CENTERED BETWEEN
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. IMPRESSIVELY THE TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE BROOKS RANGE WELL INTO THE SUB-TROPICS WITH
SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE WIND FIELD ALOFT JUST EAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AROUND 20N LATITUDE. ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
SAID LONGWAVE SEVERAL BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURES ARE APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A TELLTALE SIGN OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
ONE IS JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...THE OTHER DOWN IN THE MID-
LATITUDES. CLOSER TO HOME...THE PREVIOUS CLOSED LOW CENTER ALOFT
IN THE GULF IS QUICKLY MOVING INLAND AND DEAMPLIFYING AS AN OPEN
WAVE. THE STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS NOW DISSIPATING WHILE
A MORE SHOWERY REGIME IS SETTING UP IN THE NORTHERN GULF. PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HAVE BROUGHT A WAVE OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THROUGH THE GAPS
IN THE CHUGACH AS WELL. FURTHER OUT WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE IS
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AHEAD OF A STRONG
KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE TWO DEVELOPING SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN
GULF WILL EFFECTIVELY REFOCUS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE
BOTH THE KAMCHATKA LOW AND UPPER RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
VARIABILITY...MAINLY WITH THE STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
GULF...BUT IN GENERAL ALL GUIDANCE HAS A STRONG COMPACT SYSTEM
MOVING WEST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING
IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS A MORE SHOWERY
PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. DIURNAL
SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE TERRAIN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE CHUGACH. AFTER TODAY A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING UP TOWARD THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH THE FLOW
AROUND ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THIS FLOW REVERSAL WILL BRING SOME COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER...SOME OF THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON CAN BE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL IS FINALLY STARTING TO EXIT THE
AREA BUT IT WILL KEEP SOME "PARTING" SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...RIDGING FROM THE
BERING WILL NUDGE INTO THE MAINLAND AND FINALLY SHOVE THE LOW INTO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING
OFFSHORE FLOW TO MOST OF THE MAINLAND. OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...IT WILL BRING STOUT NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS....MAINLY ON THE BERING SIDE... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER IT COULD
MAKE FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL ALSO BRING COOLING CONDITIONS. MANY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL RELAX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WON`T
START TO INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING
AND ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. A WEAKENING FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING...WITH A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE COPPER BASIN STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE COPPER BASIN AND ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT
TIME PERIODS. THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

MTL/MO/JA SEP 14



  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 201038
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE
WITHIN A COUPLE MB OF EACH OTHER AND VERY CLOSE ON TRACK TAKING
THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST ON A TRACK ABOUT 75 NM
OFF SHORE AS A 992 TO 994 MB LOW WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A LOW THAT
IS SLOWER TO DEEPEN BUT ULTIMATELY IS AROUND 988 MB BUT TRACKS
PARALLEL TO THE NAM AND GFS TRACKS BUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST.
SIMILAR TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA. TIGHT
GRADIENTS AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY. THE MODEL
SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHORT WAVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
BERING SEA. A 540 DAM LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND
WILL DEEPEN AS IT DIGS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AS A 538 DAM LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PRODUCES DEEP
CYCLOGENISIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MODELS DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION
DIFFERING BY OVER 200 NM AND LOW DEPTH VARYING FROM 976 MB TO 992
MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTH
WITH LANDFALL NEAR YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW SPREADS NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER INTO TUESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY AND STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...LIGHT SNOW...FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BERING SEA.

INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE WEAK LOW THAT MOVED OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR IS PULL NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OUT OF WESTERN ALASKA. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY TO
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GAP FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES WITH WIND ADVISORY
HOISTED FOR PASSES IN ZONE 226. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 201038
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE
WITHIN A COUPLE MB OF EACH OTHER AND VERY CLOSE ON TRACK TAKING
THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST ON A TRACK ABOUT 75 NM
OFF SHORE AS A 992 TO 994 MB LOW WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A LOW THAT
IS SLOWER TO DEEPEN BUT ULTIMATELY IS AROUND 988 MB BUT TRACKS
PARALLEL TO THE NAM AND GFS TRACKS BUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST.
SIMILAR TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA. TIGHT
GRADIENTS AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY. THE MODEL
SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHORT WAVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
BERING SEA. A 540 DAM LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND
WILL DEEPEN AS IT DIGS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AS A 538 DAM LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PRODUCES DEEP
CYCLOGENISIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MODELS DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION
DIFFERING BY OVER 200 NM AND LOW DEPTH VARYING FROM 976 MB TO 992
MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTH
WITH LANDFALL NEAR YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW SPREADS NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER INTO TUESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY AND STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...LIGHT SNOW...FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BERING SEA.

INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE WEAK LOW THAT MOVED OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR IS PULL NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OUT OF WESTERN ALASKA. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY TO
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GAP FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES WITH WIND ADVISORY
HOISTED FOR PASSES IN ZONE 226. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 201038
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE
WITHIN A COUPLE MB OF EACH OTHER AND VERY CLOSE ON TRACK TAKING
THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST ON A TRACK ABOUT 75 NM
OFF SHORE AS A 992 TO 994 MB LOW WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A LOW THAT
IS SLOWER TO DEEPEN BUT ULTIMATELY IS AROUND 988 MB BUT TRACKS
PARALLEL TO THE NAM AND GFS TRACKS BUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST.
SIMILAR TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA. TIGHT
GRADIENTS AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY. THE MODEL
SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHORT WAVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
BERING SEA. A 540 DAM LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND
WILL DEEPEN AS IT DIGS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AS A 538 DAM LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PRODUCES DEEP
CYCLOGENISIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MODELS DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION
DIFFERING BY OVER 200 NM AND LOW DEPTH VARYING FROM 976 MB TO 992
MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTH
WITH LANDFALL NEAR YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW SPREADS NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER INTO TUESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY AND STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...LIGHT SNOW...FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BERING SEA.

INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE WEAK LOW THAT MOVED OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR IS PULL NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OUT OF WESTERN ALASKA. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY TO
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GAP FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES WITH WIND ADVISORY
HOISTED FOR PASSES IN ZONE 226. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 201038
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE
WITHIN A COUPLE MB OF EACH OTHER AND VERY CLOSE ON TRACK TAKING
THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST ON A TRACK ABOUT 75 NM
OFF SHORE AS A 992 TO 994 MB LOW WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A LOW THAT
IS SLOWER TO DEEPEN BUT ULTIMATELY IS AROUND 988 MB BUT TRACKS
PARALLEL TO THE NAM AND GFS TRACKS BUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST.
SIMILAR TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA. TIGHT
GRADIENTS AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY. THE MODEL
SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHORT WAVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
BERING SEA. A 540 DAM LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND
WILL DEEPEN AS IT DIGS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AS A 538 DAM LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PRODUCES DEEP
CYCLOGENISIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MODELS DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION
DIFFERING BY OVER 200 NM AND LOW DEPTH VARYING FROM 976 MB TO 992
MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTH
WITH LANDFALL NEAR YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW SPREADS NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER INTO TUESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY AND STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...LIGHT SNOW...FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BERING SEA.

INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE WEAK LOW THAT MOVED OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR IS PULL NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OUT OF WESTERN ALASKA. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY TO
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GAP FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES WITH WIND ADVISORY
HOISTED FOR PASSES IN ZONE 226. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 192346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN THERE
TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NNE INTO
THE SE GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SAT. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU ALL BUT THE FAR
SERN AREA...WHERE IT WILL STALL SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE PAC. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND
NAM AS THEY WERE VERY CLOSE ON HANDLING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. GFS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAST WHILE THE
GEM LOOKED TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR W WITH IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS.
WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS BUT
THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SERN AREA TONIGHT AS LOW AND FRONT MOVE IN. WINDS COULD
APPROACH STORM FORCE OVER THE FAR SERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT
BETWEEN 12-18Z SAT...BUT WILL PEAK THEM AT 45 KT FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/FRONT IS NOT VERY HIGH
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 26..27..AND 28 FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING. WINDS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND LEVELS IN ZONE 27
12-18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 28 FOR END TIME OF THESE
STRONG WINDS AS THEY COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
DUE TO FRONT STALLING OVER THEM.

AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS...SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH OVER ALL BUT THE NE GULF COAST AREA AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT.
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND REACH MOST OF THE NRN AREA LATE TONIGHT. AFTER TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU MOST OF THE AREA SAT...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
SHOWERY NW OF FREDERICK SOUND BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE STRONGEST SLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE. RAINFALL THERE COULD BE IN THE 1.5 TO 4
INCH RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH THE KETCHIKAN AREA HAVING
BEST SHOT AT THE 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN
SHOULD CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND COULD LEAD TO MUDSLIDES NEAR STEEP
TERRAIN S OF THE FREDERICK SOUND AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT.

OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE PAYA AREA FOR THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD (THRU 03Z). WARMING AND PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA
ALOFT WILL LIKELY END THIS THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR INTO
THE N PACIFIC WILL WIND TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY SWINGING
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AK GULF. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HOWEVER
THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH, AT LEAST 10 MB. THUS THIS
LOW WILL AT LEAST BE MAX SMALL CRAFT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 12 TO 18 FOOT
RANGE WITH THE ADVANCING LOW AND FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AGAIN PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNEL.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THEN BACK AGAIN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE DROPS IN
SPEEDS AS THE WINDS FLIP BUT SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
GRADIENTS INCREASE.

THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING NEARING
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. TO THE SOUTH A 980 MB LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
SOUTH OF 50 N TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST. INDICATIONS THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PUSH NORTHWARD AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND AK
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH THE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WHILE 12Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUNDAY LOW,
AROUND 10 MB, THEY DID HAVE SIMILAR TRACKS. USED A BLEND OF THE
DEEPER ECMWF AND WEAKER GFS FOR NOW. WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN
OPERATIONS MODELS KEPT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND BY USING THE NEW
WPC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE BUT DROPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE SHARP
RISES TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

RWT/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 192346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN THERE
TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NNE INTO
THE SE GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SAT. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU ALL BUT THE FAR
SERN AREA...WHERE IT WILL STALL SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE PAC. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND
NAM AS THEY WERE VERY CLOSE ON HANDLING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. GFS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAST WHILE THE
GEM LOOKED TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR W WITH IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS.
WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS BUT
THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SERN AREA TONIGHT AS LOW AND FRONT MOVE IN. WINDS COULD
APPROACH STORM FORCE OVER THE FAR SERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT
BETWEEN 12-18Z SAT...BUT WILL PEAK THEM AT 45 KT FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/FRONT IS NOT VERY HIGH
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 26..27..AND 28 FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING. WINDS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND LEVELS IN ZONE 27
12-18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 28 FOR END TIME OF THESE
STRONG WINDS AS THEY COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
DUE TO FRONT STALLING OVER THEM.

AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS...SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH OVER ALL BUT THE NE GULF COAST AREA AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT.
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND REACH MOST OF THE NRN AREA LATE TONIGHT. AFTER TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU MOST OF THE AREA SAT...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
SHOWERY NW OF FREDERICK SOUND BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE STRONGEST SLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE. RAINFALL THERE COULD BE IN THE 1.5 TO 4
INCH RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH THE KETCHIKAN AREA HAVING
BEST SHOT AT THE 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN
SHOULD CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND COULD LEAD TO MUDSLIDES NEAR STEEP
TERRAIN S OF THE FREDERICK SOUND AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT.

OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE PAYA AREA FOR THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD (THRU 03Z). WARMING AND PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA
ALOFT WILL LIKELY END THIS THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR INTO
THE N PACIFIC WILL WIND TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY SWINGING
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AK GULF. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HOWEVER
THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH, AT LEAST 10 MB. THUS THIS
LOW WILL AT LEAST BE MAX SMALL CRAFT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 12 TO 18 FOOT
RANGE WITH THE ADVANCING LOW AND FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AGAIN PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNEL.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THEN BACK AGAIN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE DROPS IN
SPEEDS AS THE WINDS FLIP BUT SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
GRADIENTS INCREASE.

THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING NEARING
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. TO THE SOUTH A 980 MB LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
SOUTH OF 50 N TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST. INDICATIONS THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PUSH NORTHWARD AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND AK
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH THE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WHILE 12Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUNDAY LOW,
AROUND 10 MB, THEY DID HAVE SIMILAR TRACKS. USED A BLEND OF THE
DEEPER ECMWF AND WEAKER GFS FOR NOW. WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN
OPERATIONS MODELS KEPT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND BY USING THE NEW
WPC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE BUT DROPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE SHARP
RISES TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

RWT/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK68 PAFC 192146
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 35N.
WEST OF THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
KAMCHATKA. THE JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES AT 135KT
TO 155KT AT THE 250 MB LEVEL.
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF IS NEAR SEWARD AND PROCEEDING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
IS BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND 40N 155W IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH.
THE BERING SEA IS SEEING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL OVERALL WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. THE NAM HAS BEEN EXCELLENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ONE AREA THAT IS STILL AN
ISSUE IS THE SERIES OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF
AND MAINLY IMPACT THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE SECOND AND STRONGER
LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE GULF ON A DUE NORTH TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSE TO CORDOVA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SEEM TO DO THE BEST JOB
MOVING THIS LOW AS IT PROCEEDS NORTHWARD THE ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST OVERALL SOLUTION. THE NAM IS TOO SLOW IN ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND DOES NOT CATCH UP UNTIL THE END OF ITS RUN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOWS FORWARD PROGRESS HAS SLOWED. THE GEM
GLOBAL DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AT ALL AND IS NOT
EVEN WORTH LOOKING AT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA IS BRINGING A
LOT OF RAINFALL TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AS WELL AS LOW CEILING
FOR AVIATION OVER MUCH OF THE COOK INLET REGION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THERE WILL
BE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW. THESE PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE
SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA THIS
EVENING WHICH THEN MOVE ALONG THE COPPER RIVER AND TURNAGAIN ARM
AFTER THAT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM PRESSURE RISES OFTEN DO NOT LAST
MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THEY CAN BE STRONG AND THE EVENT
CAN BEGIN AND END ABRUPTLY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL JUST HAVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS BUT ALSO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WHICH MAY INCREASE IN
SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT THESE SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE COPPER
BASIN STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COPPER
BASIN AND ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS.
THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 192146
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 35N.
WEST OF THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
KAMCHATKA. THE JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES AT 135KT
TO 155KT AT THE 250 MB LEVEL.
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF IS NEAR SEWARD AND PROCEEDING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
IS BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND 40N 155W IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH.
THE BERING SEA IS SEEING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL OVERALL WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. THE NAM HAS BEEN EXCELLENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ONE AREA THAT IS STILL AN
ISSUE IS THE SERIES OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF
AND MAINLY IMPACT THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE SECOND AND STRONGER
LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE GULF ON A DUE NORTH TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSE TO CORDOVA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SEEM TO DO THE BEST JOB
MOVING THIS LOW AS IT PROCEEDS NORTHWARD THE ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST OVERALL SOLUTION. THE NAM IS TOO SLOW IN ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND DOES NOT CATCH UP UNTIL THE END OF ITS RUN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOWS FORWARD PROGRESS HAS SLOWED. THE GEM
GLOBAL DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AT ALL AND IS NOT
EVEN WORTH LOOKING AT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA IS BRINGING A
LOT OF RAINFALL TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AS WELL AS LOW CEILING
FOR AVIATION OVER MUCH OF THE COOK INLET REGION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THERE WILL
BE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW. THESE PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE
SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA THIS
EVENING WHICH THEN MOVE ALONG THE COPPER RIVER AND TURNAGAIN ARM
AFTER THAT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM PRESSURE RISES OFTEN DO NOT LAST
MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THEY CAN BE STRONG AND THE EVENT
CAN BEGIN AND END ABRUPTLY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL JUST HAVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS BUT ALSO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WHICH MAY INCREASE IN
SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT THESE SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE COPPER
BASIN STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COPPER
BASIN AND ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS.
THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 192048
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL. REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...CANADIAN PROGRESSING THE SYSTEM EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY GET INTO THE MIDRANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A LITTLE MORE CONCENSUS ON THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY AS ALL OF THEM ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS. SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
THE MID RANGE ON...BUT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR...BUT THE NAM
IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT INTO THE INTERIOR...AND HAS
LESSER AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TO 45N 150W BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY
MORNING. A 534 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WORK SOUTHEAST OVER
ANAKTUVUK PASS BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
DEADHORSE BY EARLY MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS.
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS TO KENAI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO
FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SEWARD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO
NUIQSUT THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THEN WEST TO
KIVALINA THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY. IT WILL LIT FROM BARTER
ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA TO SLEETMUTE AND SOUTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM
MACKENZIE BAY TO FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION THEN SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 990MB CENTER OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE LOW
IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST WITH THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGGING OUT OF THE AREA. A 986
MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPIN UP
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEAS WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WORKING INLAND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND OVER
THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...A MESSY MIX OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG...SNOW
...FREEZING DRIZZLE...RAIN...WIND...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE BARROW AREA WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS
AT SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE BARROW AREA WILL SEE THE WORST
OF IT. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM AT 19/1745Z SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER VAST AREAS OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE IFR PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING VERY MUCH...BUT IT
DOES HAVE AREAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. LOOKING BACK
OVERNIGHT THE AREAS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEY
WILL. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND AT 19/1718Z CONFIRMS CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA AND SHOWS A NICE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC OFFSHORE AREA. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TO 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL TREND SLOWLY DOWN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION OF THE WET SNOW...BUT IF WE HAVE ANY IT SHOULD MELT
OFF PRETTY QUICK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
INLAND...WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DUE TO THE OPEN WATER IN THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COASTAL AREAS ARE PRETTY
NICE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT. INLAND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND THE UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK
RIVERS AS EXPECTED. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
GETS PULLED INTO THE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE HALF INCH TODAY IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY TO REMAIN
DOWN FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
BERING STRAIT THIS WEEKEND AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...BUT
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL AREAS.

INTERIOR...RIDGING FROM THE EAST KEPT THE CLOUDS OT OF A LARGE
PART OF THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL ALL CHANGE TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING
TO BE UP TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH WIND WITH THE RAIN...BUT SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH OVER
THE HILLS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY EVENING...BUT NO SNOW ON
THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 192048
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL. REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...CANADIAN PROGRESSING THE SYSTEM EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY GET INTO THE MIDRANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A LITTLE MORE CONCENSUS ON THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY AS ALL OF THEM ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS. SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
THE MID RANGE ON...BUT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR...BUT THE NAM
IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT INTO THE INTERIOR...AND HAS
LESSER AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TO 45N 150W BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY
MORNING. A 534 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WORK SOUTHEAST OVER
ANAKTUVUK PASS BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
DEADHORSE BY EARLY MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS.
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS TO KENAI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO
FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SEWARD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO
NUIQSUT THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THEN WEST TO
KIVALINA THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY. IT WILL LIT FROM BARTER
ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA TO SLEETMUTE AND SOUTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM
MACKENZIE BAY TO FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION THEN SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 990MB CENTER OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE LOW
IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST WITH THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGGING OUT OF THE AREA. A 986
MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPIN UP
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEAS WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WORKING INLAND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND OVER
THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...A MESSY MIX OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG...SNOW
...FREEZING DRIZZLE...RAIN...WIND...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE BARROW AREA WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS
AT SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE BARROW AREA WILL SEE THE WORST
OF IT. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM AT 19/1745Z SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER VAST AREAS OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE IFR PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING VERY MUCH...BUT IT
DOES HAVE AREAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. LOOKING BACK
OVERNIGHT THE AREAS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEY
WILL. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND AT 19/1718Z CONFIRMS CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA AND SHOWS A NICE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC OFFSHORE AREA. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TO 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL TREND SLOWLY DOWN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION OF THE WET SNOW...BUT IF WE HAVE ANY IT SHOULD MELT
OFF PRETTY QUICK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
INLAND...WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DUE TO THE OPEN WATER IN THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COASTAL AREAS ARE PRETTY
NICE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT. INLAND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND THE UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK
RIVERS AS EXPECTED. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
GETS PULLED INTO THE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE HALF INCH TODAY IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY TO REMAIN
DOWN FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
BERING STRAIT THIS WEEKEND AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...BUT
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL AREAS.

INTERIOR...RIDGING FROM THE EAST KEPT THE CLOUDS OT OF A LARGE
PART OF THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL ALL CHANGE TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING
TO BE UP TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH WIND WITH THE RAIN...BUT SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH OVER
THE HILLS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY EVENING...BUT NO SNOW ON
THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 192048
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL. REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...CANADIAN PROGRESSING THE SYSTEM EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY GET INTO THE MIDRANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A LITTLE MORE CONCENSUS ON THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY AS ALL OF THEM ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS. SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
THE MID RANGE ON...BUT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR...BUT THE NAM
IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT INTO THE INTERIOR...AND HAS
LESSER AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TO 45N 150W BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY
MORNING. A 534 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WORK SOUTHEAST OVER
ANAKTUVUK PASS BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
DEADHORSE BY EARLY MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS.
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS TO KENAI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO
FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SEWARD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO
NUIQSUT THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THEN WEST TO
KIVALINA THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY. IT WILL LIT FROM BARTER
ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA TO SLEETMUTE AND SOUTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM
MACKENZIE BAY TO FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION THEN SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 990MB CENTER OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE LOW
IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST WITH THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGGING OUT OF THE AREA. A 986
MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPIN UP
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEAS WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WORKING INLAND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND OVER
THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...A MESSY MIX OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG...SNOW
...FREEZING DRIZZLE...RAIN...WIND...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE BARROW AREA WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS
AT SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE BARROW AREA WILL SEE THE WORST
OF IT. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM AT 19/1745Z SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER VAST AREAS OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE IFR PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING VERY MUCH...BUT IT
DOES HAVE AREAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. LOOKING BACK
OVERNIGHT THE AREAS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEY
WILL. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND AT 19/1718Z CONFIRMS CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA AND SHOWS A NICE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC OFFSHORE AREA. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TO 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL TREND SLOWLY DOWN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION OF THE WET SNOW...BUT IF WE HAVE ANY IT SHOULD MELT
OFF PRETTY QUICK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
INLAND...WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DUE TO THE OPEN WATER IN THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COASTAL AREAS ARE PRETTY
NICE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT. INLAND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND THE UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK
RIVERS AS EXPECTED. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
GETS PULLED INTO THE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE HALF INCH TODAY IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY TO REMAIN
DOWN FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
BERING STRAIT THIS WEEKEND AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...BUT
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL AREAS.

INTERIOR...RIDGING FROM THE EAST KEPT THE CLOUDS OT OF A LARGE
PART OF THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL ALL CHANGE TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING
TO BE UP TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH WIND WITH THE RAIN...BUT SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH OVER
THE HILLS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY EVENING...BUT NO SNOW ON
THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 192048
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL. REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...CANADIAN PROGRESSING THE SYSTEM EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY GET INTO THE MIDRANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A LITTLE MORE CONCENSUS ON THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY AS ALL OF THEM ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS. SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
THE MID RANGE ON...BUT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR...BUT THE NAM
IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT INTO THE INTERIOR...AND HAS
LESSER AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TO 45N 150W BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY
MORNING. A 534 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WORK SOUTHEAST OVER
ANAKTUVUK PASS BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
DEADHORSE BY EARLY MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS.
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS TO KENAI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO
FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SEWARD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO
NUIQSUT THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THEN WEST TO
KIVALINA THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY. IT WILL LIT FROM BARTER
ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA TO SLEETMUTE AND SOUTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM
MACKENZIE BAY TO FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION THEN SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 990MB CENTER OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE LOW
IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST WITH THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGGING OUT OF THE AREA. A 986
MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPIN UP
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEAS WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WORKING INLAND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND OVER
THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...A MESSY MIX OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG...SNOW
...FREEZING DRIZZLE...RAIN...WIND...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE BARROW AREA WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS
AT SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE BARROW AREA WILL SEE THE WORST
OF IT. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM AT 19/1745Z SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER VAST AREAS OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE IFR PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING VERY MUCH...BUT IT
DOES HAVE AREAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. LOOKING BACK
OVERNIGHT THE AREAS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEY
WILL. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND AT 19/1718Z CONFIRMS CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA AND SHOWS A NICE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC OFFSHORE AREA. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TO 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL TREND SLOWLY DOWN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION OF THE WET SNOW...BUT IF WE HAVE ANY IT SHOULD MELT
OFF PRETTY QUICK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
INLAND...WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DUE TO THE OPEN WATER IN THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COASTAL AREAS ARE PRETTY
NICE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT. INLAND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND THE UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK
RIVERS AS EXPECTED. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
GETS PULLED INTO THE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE HALF INCH TODAY IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY TO REMAIN
DOWN FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
BERING STRAIT THIS WEEKEND AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...BUT
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL AREAS.

INTERIOR...RIDGING FROM THE EAST KEPT THE CLOUDS OT OF A LARGE
PART OF THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL ALL CHANGE TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING
TO BE UP TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH WIND WITH THE RAIN...BUT SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH OVER
THE HILLS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY EVENING...BUT NO SNOW ON
THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 191400
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THEN MOVING IT SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AT 10AM SATURDAY...THE 500MB AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST ALASKA TO JUST EAST OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND
NORTON SOUND. AT 4PM SATURDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH
OVER AMBLER... GALENA...AND ANVIK. AT 10AM SUNDAY...THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM BARROW...SOUTH OVER BETTLES...TANANA...AND
THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT AND AT 10PM
SUNDAY THE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM PRUDHOE BAY...TO FAIRBANKS...AND
EAST OF DENALI. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA TO NORTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAS YET TO BE
SUPPORTED BY FIRM AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. BETWEEN THE FIRST AND
SECOND TROUGH...ON MONDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE
COULD BE EITHER A RIDGE OR A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...
DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST MODEL. THE CASE FOR A REBOUNDING RIDGE
AFTER THE SECOND TROUGH PASSES EAST SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE PRIOR BETWEEN TROUGHS.

SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
NORTH TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND BROADEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 1026MB HIGH NEAR 83N 165W WILL
DRIFT NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...STRONG EAST WINDS...OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND
ADJACENT MARINE AREA...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH SLOPE DRIFTS NORTH.
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WEST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA.

WEST COAST...MODERATE NORTH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA...
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

INTERIOR...AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL END UPON THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH NO SNOW FOR
MOST PLACES. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BE THE MAIN EXCEPTION BUT WITH
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE WESTERN ALAKSA
RANGE COULD HAVE SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
DIMINISH TUESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...IN PARTICULAR ZONES 226
AND 224...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. INDIVIDUAL BASINS MAY
HAVE RAINFALL AVERAGES UP TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH HIGHEST AVERAGES
IN THE 40 MILE BASIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 191400
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THEN MOVING IT SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AT 10AM SATURDAY...THE 500MB AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST ALASKA TO JUST EAST OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND
NORTON SOUND. AT 4PM SATURDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH
OVER AMBLER... GALENA...AND ANVIK. AT 10AM SUNDAY...THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM BARROW...SOUTH OVER BETTLES...TANANA...AND
THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT AND AT 10PM
SUNDAY THE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM PRUDHOE BAY...TO FAIRBANKS...AND
EAST OF DENALI. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA TO NORTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAS YET TO BE
SUPPORTED BY FIRM AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. BETWEEN THE FIRST AND
SECOND TROUGH...ON MONDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE
COULD BE EITHER A RIDGE OR A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...
DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST MODEL. THE CASE FOR A REBOUNDING RIDGE
AFTER THE SECOND TROUGH PASSES EAST SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE PRIOR BETWEEN TROUGHS.

SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
NORTH TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND BROADEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 1026MB HIGH NEAR 83N 165W WILL
DRIFT NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...STRONG EAST WINDS...OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND
ADJACENT MARINE AREA...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH SLOPE DRIFTS NORTH.
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WEST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA.

WEST COAST...MODERATE NORTH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA...
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

INTERIOR...AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL END UPON THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH NO SNOW FOR
MOST PLACES. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BE THE MAIN EXCEPTION BUT WITH
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE WESTERN ALAKSA
RANGE COULD HAVE SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
DIMINISH TUESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...IN PARTICULAR ZONES 226
AND 224...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. INDIVIDUAL BASINS MAY
HAVE RAINFALL AVERAGES UP TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH HIGHEST AVERAGES
IN THE 40 MILE BASIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14



000
FXAK67 PAJK 191350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THE
FIRST BIG WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXITING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE NEXT BIG WAVE IS GETTING
ORGANIZED WELL TO THE SOUTH. IMPACTS OF FIRST CIRCULATION ARE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL. CURRENTLY MAJOR RAINFALL IS
CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS GUSTING TO 45KT IN SOUTHERN
LYNN AND CROSS SOUND WHILE MOST AREAS ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY LESS WIND
BUT INTO GALE CATEGORY FOR SOME AREAS...CHATHAM AND LYNN AS WELL AS
STEPHENS AND PORTIONS OFFSHORE.  IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST WAVE WERE
OVERALL A BIT LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR RAIN. ALSO WE ADDED SHOWERS
WORDING TO TODAY`S FORECAST AND BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH TODAY BASED ON OBSERVED STRONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MODEL FORECASTS OF CAPE. HEAVY RAIN
HAS A GOOD SHOT AT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. SECOND WAVE TAKES A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC/GEM FIELDS
SEEMED APPROPO FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE FEATURES MORE
CONSISTENT...AND SIGNAL A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW/FRONT SYSTEM WHOSE
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WE ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM STRONGER FOR ICY STRAIGHT, CROSS SOUND AND
FREDERICK SOUND OTHERWISE THE INHERITED WINDS SEEMED CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL FEATURES AND LEAD TO THE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARIZED BELOW.

FOR HAZARDS/ADVISORIES WE HAVE GALES TODAY FOR MOST INNER CHANNELS
ON THE NORTH SIDE...SCA OFFSHORE AND THE REST OF MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS TODAY. STRONG WINDS HIGHLIGHT ZONES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS EXCEPTING YAKUTAT. THESE GENERALLY ARE TRENDING NORTH AND
DIMINISHING LATE. MEANWHILE FOR THE SECOND LOW WE HAVE GALES BY
TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER CHANNELS AND SCA
WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE. GALE IS INCLUDED FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT TONIGHT ALSO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OFFSHORE BY 12Z SAT.
STRONG WINDS ARE WORDED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR THIS SHORTTERM
PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
SPREAD IN STRENGTH FOR THE SECOND LOW APPROACHING TONIGHT FOR THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH THIS FALL-LIKE SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOODING PROBLEMS...EG JUNEAU AREA...AT
THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT MODEL FIELDS.


.LONG TERM...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA PERSISTS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
IT DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TURNING
NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE INTO THE WEST PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING ABOUT THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF
THEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTING THAT A DEEP FALL STORM WITH SURFACE LOW
LOWERING IN THE MID 960S THE WILL DRIVE NORTH ALONG THE OUTER OF
THE PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF POCKET. WITH THIS LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AM EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THE LOW WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME

FOR THE MID TO THE END OF THE WEEK FORECAST THE JETS STREAM WILL
BE CARRYING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF REGION
LEAVING SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN OVERVIEW RAIN AND SOME WIND THROUGH MONDAY SWITCHING OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

BRIEF GLANCE AT THE HYDROLOGY PICTURE SHOWS MOST RIVERS AND
STREAMS BELOW BANKFULL BY A COUPLE OF FEET AND WHILE THE RAINS
WILL INCREASE THE WATER LEVELS NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020>022-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-035-042-051>053.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 191350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THE
FIRST BIG WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXITING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE NEXT BIG WAVE IS GETTING
ORGANIZED WELL TO THE SOUTH. IMPACTS OF FIRST CIRCULATION ARE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL. CURRENTLY MAJOR RAINFALL IS
CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS GUSTING TO 45KT IN SOUTHERN
LYNN AND CROSS SOUND WHILE MOST AREAS ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY LESS WIND
BUT INTO GALE CATEGORY FOR SOME AREAS...CHATHAM AND LYNN AS WELL AS
STEPHENS AND PORTIONS OFFSHORE.  IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST WAVE WERE
OVERALL A BIT LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR RAIN. ALSO WE ADDED SHOWERS
WORDING TO TODAY`S FORECAST AND BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH TODAY BASED ON OBSERVED STRONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MODEL FORECASTS OF CAPE. HEAVY RAIN
HAS A GOOD SHOT AT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. SECOND WAVE TAKES A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC/GEM FIELDS
SEEMED APPROPO FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE FEATURES MORE
CONSISTENT...AND SIGNAL A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW/FRONT SYSTEM WHOSE
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WE ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM STRONGER FOR ICY STRAIGHT, CROSS SOUND AND
FREDERICK SOUND OTHERWISE THE INHERITED WINDS SEEMED CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL FEATURES AND LEAD TO THE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARIZED BELOW.

FOR HAZARDS/ADVISORIES WE HAVE GALES TODAY FOR MOST INNER CHANNELS
ON THE NORTH SIDE...SCA OFFSHORE AND THE REST OF MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS TODAY. STRONG WINDS HIGHLIGHT ZONES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS EXCEPTING YAKUTAT. THESE GENERALLY ARE TRENDING NORTH AND
DIMINISHING LATE. MEANWHILE FOR THE SECOND LOW WE HAVE GALES BY
TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER CHANNELS AND SCA
WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE. GALE IS INCLUDED FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT TONIGHT ALSO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OFFSHORE BY 12Z SAT.
STRONG WINDS ARE WORDED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR THIS SHORTTERM
PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
SPREAD IN STRENGTH FOR THE SECOND LOW APPROACHING TONIGHT FOR THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH THIS FALL-LIKE SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOODING PROBLEMS...EG JUNEAU AREA...AT
THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT MODEL FIELDS.


.LONG TERM...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA PERSISTS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
IT DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TURNING
NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE INTO THE WEST PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING ABOUT THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF
THEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTING THAT A DEEP FALL STORM WITH SURFACE LOW
LOWERING IN THE MID 960S THE WILL DRIVE NORTH ALONG THE OUTER OF
THE PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF POCKET. WITH THIS LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AM EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THE LOW WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME

FOR THE MID TO THE END OF THE WEEK FORECAST THE JETS STREAM WILL
BE CARRYING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF REGION
LEAVING SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN OVERVIEW RAIN AND SOME WIND THROUGH MONDAY SWITCHING OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

BRIEF GLANCE AT THE HYDROLOGY PICTURE SHOWS MOST RIVERS AND
STREAMS BELOW BANKFULL BY A COUPLE OF FEET AND WHILE THE RAINS
WILL INCREASE THE WATER LEVELS NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020>022-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-035-042-051>053.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK68 PAFC 191304
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND/NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE LONGER LIVED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE BIG BERING
STORM LAST WEEK AND HAS BEEN ANCHORING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SINCE
THEN. THE SECOND CENTER IS A POTENT BUT MATURE SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE AS WELL. AS A WHOLE THIS TROUGH IS VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE
STRETCHING FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HITTING 35N LATITUDE. THE JET STREAM EXHIBITS A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE EAST ASIAN JET BEING THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER OF
THE PATTERN THOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM IS HELPING AMPLIFY THE
CURRENT TROUGH.  FURTHER OUT WEST...A COUPLE FEATURES ARE KEEPING
THE PATTERN FROM BECOMING TOO PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA WHILE THE EAST ASIAN
JET IS DEVELOPING A KAMCHAKTA SYSTEM.

FOCUSING ON THE SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING
WHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS STRETCHES
FROM THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN KACHEMAK BAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES POLEWARD OF THE GULF
LOW ARE CONTINUING TO FORCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST ALONG WITH MECHANICAL LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN HOW THE GULF SYSTEM IS
HANDLED AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL TURN BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE SOUTHWEST CENTER AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. THERE ARE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS IN HOW A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST...THE CURRENT INCARNATION HAD
PRETTY SHARP EDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZONE SO THE EXACT
LOCATION AND NATURE WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON COVERAGE AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT. NO PARTICULAR SOLUTION
WAS FAVORED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GUIDANCE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE
BUT THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS FOR THE KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THE PREVIOUS DEFORMATION IS WEAKENING OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORCING RAIN OVER
THE MAT-SU AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
NINILCHIK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. RAIN WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
SEE A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BACK TO STEADIER RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND...AN
AREA OF STOUT PRESSURE RISES MOVES UP THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE
RISES WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO CORDOVA...VALDEZ...AND THE
COPPER RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP RAIN GOING FROM THE
NORTHERN KENAI THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WANING TOWARD MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRESSURERISES WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE BOWL LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD
BEGIN A DRYING TREND WITH SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE GULF COAST.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE TWO BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE REGION COMING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AN END TO THE WET WEATHER AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAINLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL THAT HAS
LINGERED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW POSITIONED
NEAR BETHEL WHILE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARP RIDGE
THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. UNTIL THIS RIDGE
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WESTERN CAPES.
DRYING WILL START IN EARNEST EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE ORIENTATION
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FOR MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE MAINLAND.
WHILE THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF ALL THIS RAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED BY THESE DRY
OFFSHORE WINDS. THE DRIER AIRMASS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO
USHER IN SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC. ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF. LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

MTL/MO/JA SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 191304
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND/NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE LONGER LIVED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE BIG BERING
STORM LAST WEEK AND HAS BEEN ANCHORING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SINCE
THEN. THE SECOND CENTER IS A POTENT BUT MATURE SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE AS WELL. AS A WHOLE THIS TROUGH IS VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE
STRETCHING FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HITTING 35N LATITUDE. THE JET STREAM EXHIBITS A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE EAST ASIAN JET BEING THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER OF
THE PATTERN THOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM IS HELPING AMPLIFY THE
CURRENT TROUGH.  FURTHER OUT WEST...A COUPLE FEATURES ARE KEEPING
THE PATTERN FROM BECOMING TOO PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA WHILE THE EAST ASIAN
JET IS DEVELOPING A KAMCHAKTA SYSTEM.

FOCUSING ON THE SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING
WHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS STRETCHES
FROM THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN KACHEMAK BAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES POLEWARD OF THE GULF
LOW ARE CONTINUING TO FORCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST ALONG WITH MECHANICAL LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN HOW THE GULF SYSTEM IS
HANDLED AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL TURN BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE SOUTHWEST CENTER AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. THERE ARE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS IN HOW A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST...THE CURRENT INCARNATION HAD
PRETTY SHARP EDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZONE SO THE EXACT
LOCATION AND NATURE WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON COVERAGE AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT. NO PARTICULAR SOLUTION
WAS FAVORED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GUIDANCE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE
BUT THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS FOR THE KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THE PREVIOUS DEFORMATION IS WEAKENING OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORCING RAIN OVER
THE MAT-SU AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
NINILCHIK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. RAIN WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
SEE A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BACK TO STEADIER RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND...AN
AREA OF STOUT PRESSURE RISES MOVES UP THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE
RISES WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO CORDOVA...VALDEZ...AND THE
COPPER RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP RAIN GOING FROM THE
NORTHERN KENAI THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WANING TOWARD MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRESSURERISES WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE BOWL LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD
BEGIN A DRYING TREND WITH SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE GULF COAST.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE TWO BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE REGION COMING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AN END TO THE WET WEATHER AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAINLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL THAT HAS
LINGERED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW POSITIONED
NEAR BETHEL WHILE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARP RIDGE
THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. UNTIL THIS RIDGE
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WESTERN CAPES.
DRYING WILL START IN EARNEST EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE ORIENTATION
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FOR MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE MAINLAND.
WHILE THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF ALL THIS RAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED BY THESE DRY
OFFSHORE WINDS. THE DRIER AIRMASS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO
USHER IN SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC. ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF. LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

MTL/MO/JA SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 191304
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND/NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE LONGER LIVED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE BIG BERING
STORM LAST WEEK AND HAS BEEN ANCHORING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SINCE
THEN. THE SECOND CENTER IS A POTENT BUT MATURE SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE AS WELL. AS A WHOLE THIS TROUGH IS VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE
STRETCHING FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HITTING 35N LATITUDE. THE JET STREAM EXHIBITS A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE EAST ASIAN JET BEING THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER OF
THE PATTERN THOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM IS HELPING AMPLIFY THE
CURRENT TROUGH.  FURTHER OUT WEST...A COUPLE FEATURES ARE KEEPING
THE PATTERN FROM BECOMING TOO PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA WHILE THE EAST ASIAN
JET IS DEVELOPING A KAMCHAKTA SYSTEM.

FOCUSING ON THE SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING
WHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS STRETCHES
FROM THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN KACHEMAK BAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES POLEWARD OF THE GULF
LOW ARE CONTINUING TO FORCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST ALONG WITH MECHANICAL LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN HOW THE GULF SYSTEM IS
HANDLED AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL TURN BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE SOUTHWEST CENTER AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. THERE ARE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS IN HOW A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST...THE CURRENT INCARNATION HAD
PRETTY SHARP EDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZONE SO THE EXACT
LOCATION AND NATURE WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON COVERAGE AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT. NO PARTICULAR SOLUTION
WAS FAVORED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GUIDANCE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE
BUT THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS FOR THE KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THE PREVIOUS DEFORMATION IS WEAKENING OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORCING RAIN OVER
THE MAT-SU AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
NINILCHIK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. RAIN WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
SEE A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BACK TO STEADIER RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND...AN
AREA OF STOUT PRESSURE RISES MOVES UP THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE
RISES WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO CORDOVA...VALDEZ...AND THE
COPPER RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP RAIN GOING FROM THE
NORTHERN KENAI THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WANING TOWARD MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRESSURERISES WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE BOWL LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD
BEGIN A DRYING TREND WITH SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE GULF COAST.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE TWO BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE REGION COMING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AN END TO THE WET WEATHER AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAINLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL THAT HAS
LINGERED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW POSITIONED
NEAR BETHEL WHILE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARP RIDGE
THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. UNTIL THIS RIDGE
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WESTERN CAPES.
DRYING WILL START IN EARNEST EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE ORIENTATION
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FOR MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE MAINLAND.
WHILE THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF ALL THIS RAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED BY THESE DRY
OFFSHORE WINDS. THE DRIER AIRMASS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO
USHER IN SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC. ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF. LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

MTL/MO/JA SEP 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 191304
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND/NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE LONGER LIVED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE BIG BERING
STORM LAST WEEK AND HAS BEEN ANCHORING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SINCE
THEN. THE SECOND CENTER IS A POTENT BUT MATURE SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE AS WELL. AS A WHOLE THIS TROUGH IS VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE
STRETCHING FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HITTING 35N LATITUDE. THE JET STREAM EXHIBITS A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE EAST ASIAN JET BEING THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER OF
THE PATTERN THOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM IS HELPING AMPLIFY THE
CURRENT TROUGH.  FURTHER OUT WEST...A COUPLE FEATURES ARE KEEPING
THE PATTERN FROM BECOMING TOO PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA WHILE THE EAST ASIAN
JET IS DEVELOPING A KAMCHAKTA SYSTEM.

FOCUSING ON THE SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING
WHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS STRETCHES
FROM THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN KACHEMAK BAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES POLEWARD OF THE GULF
LOW ARE CONTINUING TO FORCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST ALONG WITH MECHANICAL LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN HOW THE GULF SYSTEM IS
HANDLED AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL TURN BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE SOUTHWEST CENTER AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. THERE ARE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS IN HOW A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST...THE CURRENT INCARNATION HAD
PRETTY SHARP EDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZONE SO THE EXACT
LOCATION AND NATURE WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON COVERAGE AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT. NO PARTICULAR SOLUTION
WAS FAVORED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GUIDANCE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE
BUT THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS FOR THE KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THE PREVIOUS DEFORMATION IS WEAKENING OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORCING RAIN OVER
THE MAT-SU AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
NINILCHIK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. RAIN WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
SEE A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BACK TO STEADIER RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND...AN
AREA OF STOUT PRESSURE RISES MOVES UP THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE
RISES WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO CORDOVA...VALDEZ...AND THE
COPPER RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP RAIN GOING FROM THE
NORTHERN KENAI THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WANING TOWARD MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRESSURERISES WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE BOWL LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD
BEGIN A DRYING TREND WITH SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE GULF COAST.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE TWO BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE REGION COMING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AN END TO THE WET WEATHER AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAINLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL THAT HAS
LINGERED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW POSITIONED
NEAR BETHEL WHILE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARP RIDGE
THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. UNTIL THIS RIDGE
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WESTERN CAPES.
DRYING WILL START IN EARNEST EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE ORIENTATION
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FOR MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE MAINLAND.
WHILE THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF ALL THIS RAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED BY THESE DRY
OFFSHORE WINDS. THE DRIER AIRMASS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO
USHER IN SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC. ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF. LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

MTL/MO/JA SEP 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 182349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
DRIFT TO THE NRN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WRAP
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SECOND WRAP FRONT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT N THRU THE NRN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI MORNING. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND GEM AS THEY HAD BEST
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS...PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. RIGHT NOW STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ON S SIDE OF THE SECOND WRAP FRONT.
BOTH AREAS HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS. MAIN FRONTAL WIND BAND WILL
DIMINISH AS IT GOES INLAND THIS EVENING. STRONGER WINDS WITH
SECOND WRAP OF FRONT SHOULD HIT THE CENTRAL COAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND PART OF THE NRN PANHANDLE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT 35-40 KT WINDS WITH THIS BAND...AND HAVE
GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES WITH THE BAND AS IT COMES THRU. THE
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRI...BUT THE
FAR NRN PANHANDLE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS BY MID-MORNING FRI AFTER
SECOND WRAP FRONT PASSES N OF THEM AND A STG SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS. HAVE GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY FRI.

AS FOR PRECIP...SHOULD BE WET AREA WIDE. PRECIP CHARACTER MAY GO
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM AS THE VARIOUS
FRONTAL BANDS MOVE THRU THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY WITH
STRATIFORM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR SIMPLICITY. THINK HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WRAP OF FRONT AS STG SW FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE NW-SE ORIENTED MTN RANGES THAT DOMINATE THE TERRAIN
OF SE AK. STRONGEST SW FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE PASI-PAJN
AREA...SO WILL MENTION HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE TIME TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME
OF THE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR POTENTIAL FAST RISES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING ESPECIALLY FRI MORNING IN THE JUNEAU AREA.

AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL GOES...500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -20-22C
IN THE COLD POOL. LIKE TO SEE SEA SFC TEMP-500 MB TEMP DIFFS OF
40+C DEGREES FOR TSTMS TO OCCUR...AND THE DIFF IS IN THE 35-37C
RANGE BASED ON CURRENT SEA SFC TEMPS OVER THE SE GULF. THINK THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT FOR TSTMS ON THE LOW SIDE AT BEST. MODELS DO SHOW
CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE AS VORT MAX MOVES ONSHORE
THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE AS CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE. STILL...SYSTEM HAS SOME STRENGTH AND A NARROW BAND OF
DEEPER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT KNOW MY CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

 FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A LOW
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR
MARINE ZONES 41, 42, AND CLARENCE STRAIT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND SKAGWAY AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK, BEFORE ANOTHER LOW COMES INTO THE
GULF FROM THE SUBTROPICS FOR SUNDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD BE CAPABLE TO
BRING IN GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
SHOULD QUIET DOWN A BIT FOR NEXT WEEK.

 WITH PREDOMINANTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE WEEKEND, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

 RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DO EXPECT HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL PER DAY. STREAMS AND LAKES IN THE AREA
SHOULD SEE RISING WATER LEVELS, WITH SOME GETTING TO ACTION STAGE.
IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AT
THIS TIME, SINCE MODELS ARE STILL GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE
STORM TRACK.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW AND THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY LOW. THESE LOWS
ARE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICS, AND THEY ARE BAROTROPIC IN
NATURE WITHOUT MUCH TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. WHEN THESE LOWS MOVE
POLEWARD AND REACH THE GULF OF ALASKA, THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC AS THERE ARE SOURCES OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THESE SYSTEMS. BECAUSE OF THE CHANGING NATURE OF THESE LOWS,
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE SYSTEMS. GEM IS SUGGESTING STRONGER LOWS, BUT GEM TENDS TO
HAVE BIAS ON BOMBING OUT SYSTEMS. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SUGGEST LOWS
MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, BUT ARE MUCH WEAKER.
RIGHT NOW, GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH END OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>034-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-035-053.

&&

$$

RWT/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 182349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
DRIFT TO THE NRN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WRAP
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SECOND WRAP FRONT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT N THRU THE NRN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI MORNING. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND GEM AS THEY HAD BEST
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS...PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. RIGHT NOW STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ON S SIDE OF THE SECOND WRAP FRONT.
BOTH AREAS HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS. MAIN FRONTAL WIND BAND WILL
DIMINISH AS IT GOES INLAND THIS EVENING. STRONGER WINDS WITH
SECOND WRAP OF FRONT SHOULD HIT THE CENTRAL COAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND PART OF THE NRN PANHANDLE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT 35-40 KT WINDS WITH THIS BAND...AND HAVE
GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES WITH THE BAND AS IT COMES THRU. THE
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRI...BUT THE
FAR NRN PANHANDLE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS BY MID-MORNING FRI AFTER
SECOND WRAP FRONT PASSES N OF THEM AND A STG SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS. HAVE GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY FRI.

AS FOR PRECIP...SHOULD BE WET AREA WIDE. PRECIP CHARACTER MAY GO
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM AS THE VARIOUS
FRONTAL BANDS MOVE THRU THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY WITH
STRATIFORM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR SIMPLICITY. THINK HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WRAP OF FRONT AS STG SW FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE NW-SE ORIENTED MTN RANGES THAT DOMINATE THE TERRAIN
OF SE AK. STRONGEST SW FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE PASI-PAJN
AREA...SO WILL MENTION HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE TIME TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME
OF THE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR POTENTIAL FAST RISES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING ESPECIALLY FRI MORNING IN THE JUNEAU AREA.

AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL GOES...500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -20-22C
IN THE COLD POOL. LIKE TO SEE SEA SFC TEMP-500 MB TEMP DIFFS OF
40+C DEGREES FOR TSTMS TO OCCUR...AND THE DIFF IS IN THE 35-37C
RANGE BASED ON CURRENT SEA SFC TEMPS OVER THE SE GULF. THINK THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT FOR TSTMS ON THE LOW SIDE AT BEST. MODELS DO SHOW
CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE AS VORT MAX MOVES ONSHORE
THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE AS CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE. STILL...SYSTEM HAS SOME STRENGTH AND A NARROW BAND OF
DEEPER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT KNOW MY CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

 FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A LOW
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR
MARINE ZONES 41, 42, AND CLARENCE STRAIT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND SKAGWAY AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK, BEFORE ANOTHER LOW COMES INTO THE
GULF FROM THE SUBTROPICS FOR SUNDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD BE CAPABLE TO
BRING IN GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
SHOULD QUIET DOWN A BIT FOR NEXT WEEK.

 WITH PREDOMINANTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE WEEKEND, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

 RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DO EXPECT HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL PER DAY. STREAMS AND LAKES IN THE AREA
SHOULD SEE RISING WATER LEVELS, WITH SOME GETTING TO ACTION STAGE.
IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AT
THIS TIME, SINCE MODELS ARE STILL GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE
STORM TRACK.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW AND THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY LOW. THESE LOWS
ARE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICS, AND THEY ARE BAROTROPIC IN
NATURE WITHOUT MUCH TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. WHEN THESE LOWS MOVE
POLEWARD AND REACH THE GULF OF ALASKA, THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC AS THERE ARE SOURCES OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THESE SYSTEMS. BECAUSE OF THE CHANGING NATURE OF THESE LOWS,
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE SYSTEMS. GEM IS SUGGESTING STRONGER LOWS, BUT GEM TENDS TO
HAVE BIAS ON BOMBING OUT SYSTEMS. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SUGGEST LOWS
MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, BUT ARE MUCH WEAKER.
RIGHT NOW, GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH END OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>034-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-035-053.

&&

$$

RWT/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 182349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
DRIFT TO THE NRN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WRAP
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SECOND WRAP FRONT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT N THRU THE NRN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI MORNING. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND GEM AS THEY HAD BEST
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS...PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. RIGHT NOW STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ON S SIDE OF THE SECOND WRAP FRONT.
BOTH AREAS HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS. MAIN FRONTAL WIND BAND WILL
DIMINISH AS IT GOES INLAND THIS EVENING. STRONGER WINDS WITH
SECOND WRAP OF FRONT SHOULD HIT THE CENTRAL COAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND PART OF THE NRN PANHANDLE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT 35-40 KT WINDS WITH THIS BAND...AND HAVE
GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES WITH THE BAND AS IT COMES THRU. THE
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRI...BUT THE
FAR NRN PANHANDLE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS BY MID-MORNING FRI AFTER
SECOND WRAP FRONT PASSES N OF THEM AND A STG SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS. HAVE GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY FRI.

AS FOR PRECIP...SHOULD BE WET AREA WIDE. PRECIP CHARACTER MAY GO
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM AS THE VARIOUS
FRONTAL BANDS MOVE THRU THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY WITH
STRATIFORM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR SIMPLICITY. THINK HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WRAP OF FRONT AS STG SW FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE NW-SE ORIENTED MTN RANGES THAT DOMINATE THE TERRAIN
OF SE AK. STRONGEST SW FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE PASI-PAJN
AREA...SO WILL MENTION HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE TIME TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME
OF THE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR POTENTIAL FAST RISES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING ESPECIALLY FRI MORNING IN THE JUNEAU AREA.

AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL GOES...500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -20-22C
IN THE COLD POOL. LIKE TO SEE SEA SFC TEMP-500 MB TEMP DIFFS OF
40+C DEGREES FOR TSTMS TO OCCUR...AND THE DIFF IS IN THE 35-37C
RANGE BASED ON CURRENT SEA SFC TEMPS OVER THE SE GULF. THINK THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT FOR TSTMS ON THE LOW SIDE AT BEST. MODELS DO SHOW
CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE AS VORT MAX MOVES ONSHORE
THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE AS CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE. STILL...SYSTEM HAS SOME STRENGTH AND A NARROW BAND OF
DEEPER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT KNOW MY CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

 FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A LOW
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR
MARINE ZONES 41, 42, AND CLARENCE STRAIT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND SKAGWAY AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK, BEFORE ANOTHER LOW COMES INTO THE
GULF FROM THE SUBTROPICS FOR SUNDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD BE CAPABLE TO
BRING IN GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
SHOULD QUIET DOWN A BIT FOR NEXT WEEK.

 WITH PREDOMINANTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE WEEKEND, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

 RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DO EXPECT HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL PER DAY. STREAMS AND LAKES IN THE AREA
SHOULD SEE RISING WATER LEVELS, WITH SOME GETTING TO ACTION STAGE.
IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AT
THIS TIME, SINCE MODELS ARE STILL GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE
STORM TRACK.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW AND THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY LOW. THESE LOWS
ARE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICS, AND THEY ARE BAROTROPIC IN
NATURE WITHOUT MUCH TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. WHEN THESE LOWS MOVE
POLEWARD AND REACH THE GULF OF ALASKA, THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC AS THERE ARE SOURCES OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THESE SYSTEMS. BECAUSE OF THE CHANGING NATURE OF THESE LOWS,
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE SYSTEMS. GEM IS SUGGESTING STRONGER LOWS, BUT GEM TENDS TO
HAVE BIAS ON BOMBING OUT SYSTEMS. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SUGGEST LOWS
MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, BUT ARE MUCH WEAKER.
RIGHT NOW, GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH END OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>034-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-035-053.

&&

$$

RWT/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 182349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
DRIFT TO THE NRN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WRAP
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SECOND WRAP FRONT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT N THRU THE NRN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI MORNING. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND GEM AS THEY HAD BEST
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS...PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. RIGHT NOW STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ON S SIDE OF THE SECOND WRAP FRONT.
BOTH AREAS HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS. MAIN FRONTAL WIND BAND WILL
DIMINISH AS IT GOES INLAND THIS EVENING. STRONGER WINDS WITH
SECOND WRAP OF FRONT SHOULD HIT THE CENTRAL COAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND PART OF THE NRN PANHANDLE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT 35-40 KT WINDS WITH THIS BAND...AND HAVE
GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES WITH THE BAND AS IT COMES THRU. THE
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRI...BUT THE
FAR NRN PANHANDLE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS BY MID-MORNING FRI AFTER
SECOND WRAP FRONT PASSES N OF THEM AND A STG SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS. HAVE GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY FRI.

AS FOR PRECIP...SHOULD BE WET AREA WIDE. PRECIP CHARACTER MAY GO
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM AS THE VARIOUS
FRONTAL BANDS MOVE THRU THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY WITH
STRATIFORM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR SIMPLICITY. THINK HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WRAP OF FRONT AS STG SW FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE NW-SE ORIENTED MTN RANGES THAT DOMINATE THE TERRAIN
OF SE AK. STRONGEST SW FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE PASI-PAJN
AREA...SO WILL MENTION HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE TIME TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME
OF THE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR POTENTIAL FAST RISES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING ESPECIALLY FRI MORNING IN THE JUNEAU AREA.

AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL GOES...500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -20-22C
IN THE COLD POOL. LIKE TO SEE SEA SFC TEMP-500 MB TEMP DIFFS OF
40+C DEGREES FOR TSTMS TO OCCUR...AND THE DIFF IS IN THE 35-37C
RANGE BASED ON CURRENT SEA SFC TEMPS OVER THE SE GULF. THINK THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT FOR TSTMS ON THE LOW SIDE AT BEST. MODELS DO SHOW
CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE AS VORT MAX MOVES ONSHORE
THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE AS CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE. STILL...SYSTEM HAS SOME STRENGTH AND A NARROW BAND OF
DEEPER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF SECOND WRAP FRONT.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT KNOW MY CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

 FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A LOW
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR
MARINE ZONES 41, 42, AND CLARENCE STRAIT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND SKAGWAY AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK, BEFORE ANOTHER LOW COMES INTO THE
GULF FROM THE SUBTROPICS FOR SUNDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD BE CAPABLE TO
BRING IN GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
SHOULD QUIET DOWN A BIT FOR NEXT WEEK.

 WITH PREDOMINANTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE WEEKEND, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

 RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DO EXPECT HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL PER DAY. STREAMS AND LAKES IN THE AREA
SHOULD SEE RISING WATER LEVELS, WITH SOME GETTING TO ACTION STAGE.
IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AT
THIS TIME, SINCE MODELS ARE STILL GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE
STORM TRACK.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW AND THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY LOW. THESE LOWS
ARE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICS, AND THEY ARE BAROTROPIC IN
NATURE WITHOUT MUCH TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. WHEN THESE LOWS MOVE
POLEWARD AND REACH THE GULF OF ALASKA, THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC AS THERE ARE SOURCES OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THESE SYSTEMS. BECAUSE OF THE CHANGING NATURE OF THESE LOWS,
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE SYSTEMS. GEM IS SUGGESTING STRONGER LOWS, BUT GEM TENDS TO
HAVE BIAS ON BOMBING OUT SYSTEMS. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SUGGEST LOWS
MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, BUT ARE MUCH WEAKER.
RIGHT NOW, GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH END OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>034-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-035-053.

&&

$$

RWT/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK68 PAFC 182142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY BASIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF NORTHWEST
CANADA TO THE ALCAN BORDER. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH A FEW JET STREAKS AROUND THE BERING SEA RIDGE. AT
THE SURFACE THERE IS A DOUBLE CENTERED LOW WITH ONE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS
SECOND LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE FIRST ONE OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT A FEATURE MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEKEND IS GIVING THEM TROUBLE.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES FROM AN
AREA NEAR 50N 140W SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE
SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET. THE
GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE BUNCH AND THE NAM IS NOT FAR BEHIND. THE
ECMWF WAS VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE MODELS RUN FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN CATCH-UP MODE AS IT WAS
SO DIFFERENT FROM THE REST AND IS STILL 200 MILES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS POSITION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH ON ALL THE
SOLUTIONS IS IN THE UPPER 970S TO LOWER 980S SO THE ARE ALL
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING. A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA TOMORROW WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING A DOUBLE CENTER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE LOW
STRONGER TO THE EAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF REVERSES THIS ORIENTATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE CORDOVA
AREA AS WELL AS TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW MOVING ON SHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CAUSE THESE GUSTY WINDS. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WHERE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING SOME
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THAT AREA AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME MORE
AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH THE
STRONGEST OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS COMBINING WITH THE LOW IN
THE GULF TO PRODUCE GOOD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN ON THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE HAS CLEARED OUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE
BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC.
ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE
COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH
AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 182142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY BASIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF NORTHWEST
CANADA TO THE ALCAN BORDER. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH A FEW JET STREAKS AROUND THE BERING SEA RIDGE. AT
THE SURFACE THERE IS A DOUBLE CENTERED LOW WITH ONE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS
SECOND LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE FIRST ONE OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT A FEATURE MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEKEND IS GIVING THEM TROUBLE.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES FROM AN
AREA NEAR 50N 140W SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE
SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET. THE
GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE BUNCH AND THE NAM IS NOT FAR BEHIND. THE
ECMWF WAS VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE MODELS RUN FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN CATCH-UP MODE AS IT WAS
SO DIFFERENT FROM THE REST AND IS STILL 200 MILES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS POSITION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH ON ALL THE
SOLUTIONS IS IN THE UPPER 970S TO LOWER 980S SO THE ARE ALL
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING. A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA TOMORROW WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING A DOUBLE CENTER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE LOW
STRONGER TO THE EAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF REVERSES THIS ORIENTATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE CORDOVA
AREA AS WELL AS TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW MOVING ON SHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CAUSE THESE GUSTY WINDS. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WHERE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING SOME
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THAT AREA AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME MORE
AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH THE
STRONGEST OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS COMBINING WITH THE LOW IN
THE GULF TO PRODUCE GOOD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN ON THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE HAS CLEARED OUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE
BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC.
ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE
COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH
AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 182142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY BASIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF NORTHWEST
CANADA TO THE ALCAN BORDER. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH A FEW JET STREAKS AROUND THE BERING SEA RIDGE. AT
THE SURFACE THERE IS A DOUBLE CENTERED LOW WITH ONE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS
SECOND LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE FIRST ONE OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT A FEATURE MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEKEND IS GIVING THEM TROUBLE.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES FROM AN
AREA NEAR 50N 140W SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE
SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET. THE
GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE BUNCH AND THE NAM IS NOT FAR BEHIND. THE
ECMWF WAS VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE MODELS RUN FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN CATCH-UP MODE AS IT WAS
SO DIFFERENT FROM THE REST AND IS STILL 200 MILES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS POSITION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH ON ALL THE
SOLUTIONS IS IN THE UPPER 970S TO LOWER 980S SO THE ARE ALL
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING. A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA TOMORROW WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING A DOUBLE CENTER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE LOW
STRONGER TO THE EAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF REVERSES THIS ORIENTATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE CORDOVA
AREA AS WELL AS TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW MOVING ON SHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CAUSE THESE GUSTY WINDS. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WHERE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING SOME
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THAT AREA AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME MORE
AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH THE
STRONGEST OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS COMBINING WITH THE LOW IN
THE GULF TO PRODUCE GOOD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN ON THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE HAS CLEARED OUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE
BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC.
ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE
COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH
AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14



000
FXAK68 PAFC 182142
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY BASIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF NORTHWEST
CANADA TO THE ALCAN BORDER. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH A FEW JET STREAKS AROUND THE BERING SEA RIDGE. AT
THE SURFACE THERE IS A DOUBLE CENTERED LOW WITH ONE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS
SECOND LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE FIRST ONE OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT A FEATURE MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEKEND IS GIVING THEM TROUBLE.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES FROM AN
AREA NEAR 50N 140W SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE
SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET. THE
GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE BUNCH AND THE NAM IS NOT FAR BEHIND. THE
ECMWF WAS VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE MODELS RUN FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN CATCH-UP MODE AS IT WAS
SO DIFFERENT FROM THE REST AND IS STILL 200 MILES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS POSITION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH ON ALL THE
SOLUTIONS IS IN THE UPPER 970S TO LOWER 980S SO THE ARE ALL
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING. A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA TOMORROW WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING A DOUBLE CENTER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE LOW
STRONGER TO THE EAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF REVERSES THIS ORIENTATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE CORDOVA
AREA AS WELL AS TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW MOVING ON SHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CAUSE THESE GUSTY WINDS. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WHERE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING SOME
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THAT AREA AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME MORE
AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH THE
STRONGEST OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS COMBINING WITH THE LOW IN
THE GULF TO PRODUCE GOOD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN ON THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE HAS CLEARED OUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON MONDAY...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH WILL EXIST OVER THE
BERING...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC.
ALONG THE POLEWARD JET EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA...A STRONG LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE
COPPER BASIN. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
STRETCHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CHUGACH
AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
TUESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE DRY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN...WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEP 14



000
FXAK69 PAFG 182103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...CANADIAN IS
A LITTLE SLOWER IN PUSHING THE TROUGH INTO THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY FRIDAY AND THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY...NOT
MUCH AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION AS WE GET FURTHER OUT INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...527 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
ABSORBS A 540 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW SPINS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 530 DAM LOW WILL
MOVE OVER WRANGEL ISLAND FRIDAY EVENING MOVING EAST OVER BARROW BY
SATURDAY EVENING THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXTEND FROM BARROW SOUTH TO NIKOLAI
SATURDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE SOUTH TO DELTA JUNCTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING OUT OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL MOVE TO LIE
FROM OLD CROW TO BETTLES TO RUBY TO MARSHALL THEN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING IT WILL LIE FROM OLD CROW TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SLEETMUTE
THEN NORTHWEST TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

SURFACE...A 973MB LOW IN IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SPIN NORTH
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THEN INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM AROUND SLEETMUTE TO OLD CROW. GOOD MOISTURE FEED
FROM THE SOUTH COMBINING WITH SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN THE YUKON RIVER AND ALCAN BORDER. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHICH WILL BE CHINOOKED
OUT. THE FRONT WILL DRAG OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. AS SECOND WAVE WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR SPREADING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FAIRBANKS
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...STRATUS AND FOG RULE THE DAY AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO GO AWAY. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM
SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND FROM 18/1736Z
CONFIRMS SOLID CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE DECKS OF
CLOUDS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST. FOG WILL BE AROUND BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY DENSE FOG TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE
ARCTIC TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW INLAND AND THE HIGH IN THE
ARCTIC. WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS DECREASING TO 10
TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH FOR SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FROM BARROW EAST. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
BY NOON SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS LITTLE TRICKY
OUT WEST AS STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM ANVIK TO AMBLER AND THE
NULATO HILLS EAST TO TANANA...AS WELL AS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE
NORTH. COLD AIR MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW...BUT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING.


INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS FROM MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
SOUTHEAST. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY
AROUND FAIRBANKS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW SPIRAL
DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN HIGHS AROUND 50 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NEXT WEEK.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ALL ON THE WAY DOWN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 182103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...CANADIAN IS
A LITTLE SLOWER IN PUSHING THE TROUGH INTO THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY FRIDAY AND THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY...NOT
MUCH AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION AS WE GET FURTHER OUT INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...527 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
ABSORBS A 540 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW SPINS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 530 DAM LOW WILL
MOVE OVER WRANGEL ISLAND FRIDAY EVENING MOVING EAST OVER BARROW BY
SATURDAY EVENING THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXTEND FROM BARROW SOUTH TO NIKOLAI
SATURDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE SOUTH TO DELTA JUNCTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING OUT OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL MOVE TO LIE
FROM OLD CROW TO BETTLES TO RUBY TO MARSHALL THEN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING IT WILL LIE FROM OLD CROW TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SLEETMUTE
THEN NORTHWEST TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

SURFACE...A 973MB LOW IN IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SPIN NORTH
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THEN INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM AROUND SLEETMUTE TO OLD CROW. GOOD MOISTURE FEED
FROM THE SOUTH COMBINING WITH SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN THE YUKON RIVER AND ALCAN BORDER. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHICH WILL BE CHINOOKED
OUT. THE FRONT WILL DRAG OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. AS SECOND WAVE WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR SPREADING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FAIRBANKS
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...STRATUS AND FOG RULE THE DAY AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO GO AWAY. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM
SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND FROM 18/1736Z
CONFIRMS SOLID CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE DECKS OF
CLOUDS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST. FOG WILL BE AROUND BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY DENSE FOG TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE
ARCTIC TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW INLAND AND THE HIGH IN THE
ARCTIC. WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS DECREASING TO 10
TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH FOR SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FROM BARROW EAST. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
BY NOON SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS LITTLE TRICKY
OUT WEST AS STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM ANVIK TO AMBLER AND THE
NULATO HILLS EAST TO TANANA...AS WELL AS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE
NORTH. COLD AIR MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW...BUT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING.


INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS FROM MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
SOUTHEAST. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY
AROUND FAIRBANKS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW SPIRAL
DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN HIGHS AROUND 50 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NEXT WEEK.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ALL ON THE WAY DOWN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 182103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...CANADIAN IS
A LITTLE SLOWER IN PUSHING THE TROUGH INTO THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY FRIDAY AND THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY...NOT
MUCH AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION AS WE GET FURTHER OUT INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...527 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
ABSORBS A 540 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW SPINS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 530 DAM LOW WILL
MOVE OVER WRANGEL ISLAND FRIDAY EVENING MOVING EAST OVER BARROW BY
SATURDAY EVENING THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXTEND FROM BARROW SOUTH TO NIKOLAI
SATURDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE SOUTH TO DELTA JUNCTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING OUT OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL MOVE TO LIE
FROM OLD CROW TO BETTLES TO RUBY TO MARSHALL THEN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING IT WILL LIE FROM OLD CROW TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SLEETMUTE
THEN NORTHWEST TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

SURFACE...A 973MB LOW IN IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SPIN NORTH
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THEN INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM AROUND SLEETMUTE TO OLD CROW. GOOD MOISTURE FEED
FROM THE SOUTH COMBINING WITH SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN THE YUKON RIVER AND ALCAN BORDER. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHICH WILL BE CHINOOKED
OUT. THE FRONT WILL DRAG OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. AS SECOND WAVE WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR SPREADING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FAIRBANKS
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...STRATUS AND FOG RULE THE DAY AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO GO AWAY. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM
SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND FROM 18/1736Z
CONFIRMS SOLID CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE DECKS OF
CLOUDS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST. FOG WILL BE AROUND BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY DENSE FOG TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE
ARCTIC TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW INLAND AND THE HIGH IN THE
ARCTIC. WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS DECREASING TO 10
TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH FOR SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FROM BARROW EAST. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
BY NOON SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS LITTLE TRICKY
OUT WEST AS STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM ANVIK TO AMBLER AND THE
NULATO HILLS EAST TO TANANA...AS WELL AS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE
NORTH. COLD AIR MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW...BUT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING.


INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS FROM MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
SOUTHEAST. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY
AROUND FAIRBANKS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW SPIRAL
DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN HIGHS AROUND 50 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NEXT WEEK.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ALL ON THE WAY DOWN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 182103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...CANADIAN IS
A LITTLE SLOWER IN PUSHING THE TROUGH INTO THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY FRIDAY AND THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY...NOT
MUCH AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION AS WE GET FURTHER OUT INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...527 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NUSHAGAK DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
ABSORBS A 540 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW SPINS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 530 DAM LOW WILL
MOVE OVER WRANGEL ISLAND FRIDAY EVENING MOVING EAST OVER BARROW BY
SATURDAY EVENING THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXTEND FROM BARROW SOUTH TO NIKOLAI
SATURDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE SOUTH TO DELTA JUNCTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING OUT OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY. AT
850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL MOVE TO LIE
FROM OLD CROW TO BETTLES TO RUBY TO MARSHALL THEN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING IT WILL LIE FROM OLD CROW TO DELTA JUNCTION TO SLEETMUTE
THEN NORTHWEST TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

SURFACE...A 973MB LOW IN IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SPIN NORTH
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THEN INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM AROUND SLEETMUTE TO OLD CROW. GOOD MOISTURE FEED
FROM THE SOUTH COMBINING WITH SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN THE YUKON RIVER AND ALCAN BORDER. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHICH WILL BE CHINOOKED
OUT. THE FRONT WILL DRAG OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. AS SECOND WAVE WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR SPREADING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FAIRBANKS
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...STRATUS AND FOG RULE THE DAY AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO GO AWAY. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM
SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND
OFFSHORE AREAS. THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND FROM 18/1736Z
CONFIRMS SOLID CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE DECKS OF
CLOUDS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST. FOG WILL BE AROUND BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY DENSE FOG TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE
ARCTIC TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW INLAND AND THE HIGH IN THE
ARCTIC. WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS DECREASING TO 10
TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH FOR SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FROM BARROW EAST. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
BY NOON SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS LITTLE TRICKY
OUT WEST AS STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM ANVIK TO AMBLER AND THE
NULATO HILLS EAST TO TANANA...AS WELL AS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE
NORTH. COLD AIR MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW...BUT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING.


INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IN THE ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS FROM MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
SOUTHEAST. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY
AROUND FAIRBANKS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW SPIRAL
DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN HIGHS AROUND 50 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NEXT WEEK.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ALL ON THE WAY DOWN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PKZ510.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14




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