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000
FXAK67 PAJK 241300
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A QUASI
STATIONARY 999 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
AK GULF. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEAKEN INTO
THE EVENING.

WEAK FRONT/BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE
PANHANDLE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO
THE NORTH. CLEAR BREAKS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME COOLING AND FOG FORMATION. ONE QUARTER
MILE DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER THE JUNEAU AIRPORT AND VALLEY WITH
GUSTAVUS AND HOONAH FOG ONLY DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE OCCASIONALLY. A SECOND FRONT / PRECIPITATION BAND IS NOW
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS THUNDER STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF OUR MARINE AREA BUT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANGE OF
T-STORMS IN CASE SOME CELLS PUSH FURTHER NORTH. THINK THIS SECOND
BAND WILL REMAIN INTACT AS THE PREVIOUS DAYS FRONT DID, THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT PULLS TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS FRONT
WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND MAY AT TIMES FEEL MORE
LIKE LIGHT DRIZZLE. PRECIP AND CLOUD BREAKS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING.

WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AND INSIDE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO
MIN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH. SINCE THE
LOW WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR EXPECTING THESE AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. WINDS PICK UP TO 20 KTS
OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WITH SOME HIGHER EASTERLY GUSTS
FROM CHANNELED TERRAIN AND GAPS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL DAY TIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST LONGER TONIGHT
THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MODELS STILL SHOWING MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS
EARLY IN THE FORECAST. 00Z ECMWF/GEM HAD GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AND WERE USED TO REFRESH INHERITED GRIDS.
CHANGES TO PRESS AND WINDS WERE MINOR. DID LIKE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
POP FIELDS WHICH SHOWED POPS BAND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY SO
POPS ARE NOW BIT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE SINCE EXPECTING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
YESTERDAYS.

.LONG TERM...MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVED FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND PROVIDES BETTER PREDICTABLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE NEAR STATIONARY LOW WEST OF HAIDA GWAII SATURDAY
WEAKENS AND STARTS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. A BROAD WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM THE WEAKENING LOW TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SATURDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO
THE WESTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH FROM
WESTERN ALASKA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING THEN USED THE
WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM PERIODS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN FALLS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE DIVERTING FOR NEXT WEEK AS THEY HANDLE THE
TROPICAL STORM ANA...CURRENTLY RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. THE LATEST CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
PREDICTION MAINTAINS ANA ABOUT THE SAME TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT REACHES NEAR 47N/143W...HEADING TOWARD
HAIDA GWAII THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
KEEPS ANA JUST SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...KEEPING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL KEEP
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER OFFSHORE
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND ALSO BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-035-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









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000
FXAK68 PAFC 241248
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ON THE LARGE SCALE THE PATTERN ALOFT IS CONTROLLED BY A LARGE
SIBERIAN LOW PRESSURE. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...CURRENTLY BETWEEN
THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE JET STREAM CURRENTLY
EXHIBITS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE MAIN BRANCH OF SUBTROPICAL
JET SITTING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC AND MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY. ABOVE
FREEZING AIR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED
TO THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE SO FREEZING RAIN IS NOT A CONCERN.
THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL IS CURRENTLY BENIGN WITH HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE FRONT SPREADING OVER MOST AREAS. SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO
ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE
SURFACE IN THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE WEEKEND A STRONG IMPULSE LOOKS
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE SIBERIAN UPPER LOW AND DEVELOP A STRONG
SYSTEM THAT TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
SUITE SHOWS A SIMILAR THEME IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF BOTH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TWO DIFFERENT FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY...THE FIRST IS A WEAK SPIN-UP IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATER TODAY. OVER THE
COOK INLET REGION...THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOSING
STRENGTH AS THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALSO DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT
CROSSES THE RANGE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLACKEN. WITH
NO APPRECIABLE THERMAL ADVECTION AND WEAKENING FORCING IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR PRECIPITATION. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES...THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIE ALONG
ELEVATED TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN COOK INLET REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THIS ONE A BIT STRONGER BUT LOOKS TO
ONLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE LATE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUD FREE DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE AND SLACKENING WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF FOGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SOME
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DELTA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THAT
WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT
CROSSES THE BERING LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE CHAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
BERING ON SUNDAY AND SEND YET ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE BERING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODEL CONSISTENCY...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS...REMAINS A
PROBLEM. OVERNIGHT OPERATIONAL RUNS RAPIDLY LOST AGREEMENT,
ALTHOUGH THE MORNING RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC WERE MUCH
CLOSER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE DECISION OF WPC TO BEGIN
WITH A 00Z EC MEAN AS A STARTING POINT. THE GRIDS REPRESENT A
BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE...AND WITH WINDS ENHANCED WITH THE 00Z
EC. THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT THERE IS SOME HOPE
THAT THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

THE SOLUTION INVOLVES TWO FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE BERING AND
WESTERN AK OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE INITIAL FRONT...FROM A
BERING STRAIT LOW...MOVES INTO WESTERN AK AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MON AND DISSIPATES RAPIDLY ON TUE. THE SECOND LOW AND
FRONT AFFECT THE WESTERN BERING TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT REACHING
WESTERN AK THU BEFORE DISSIPATING INLAND BY FRI. YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON FRI.

WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVE
INTO SE AK LATER ON MON AND FORM AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THAT PERSISTS THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE GULF ON THU.

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS ON MON..AND
THEN RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS WED AND THU. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRI. SOME GALES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS AS THEY TRANSIT THE BERING.

SOUTHWEST AK WILL HAVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MON...DRYING ON
TUE...RAIN AND SNOW WED INTO THU...AND SHOWERS LATER ON THU INTO
FRI.

SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE GENERALLY DRY INLAND THROUGH FRI WITH
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TUE AND WED.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

MTL/DS OCT 14



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000
FXAK69 PAFG 241141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...BUT MODELS
SHOWING QUITE LARGE DIFFERENCES BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE ONE THING
THEY HAVE IN COMMON IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH NO SHORTAGE OF SHORTWAVES. NUDGING TO THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH
A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL LEAN A LITTLE
HEAVIER ON THE ECMWF BEYOND 36 HOURS SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING A
MUCH BETTER JOB OF LATE IN THE MID RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 536 DAM LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING.
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND A 497 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA...THE FIRST WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY THIS MORNING...TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THIS MORNING THEN
CONTINUE EAST...THE THIRD WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND A FORTH WILL GET TO THE COAST SUNDAY AS THE
LOW AND LONG WAVE TROUGH REORIENT OVER THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH
CHANGE UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY...THEN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON THE SURFACE...THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN NEAR 80N FOR OVER A WEEK
HAS FINALLY MOVED WEST...BUT WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A DISSIPATING OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
FROM THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
UPPER KOYUKUK BASIN AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY EVENING. A
THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY LATE SATURDAY AND DISSIPATING OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST POTENT OF THE FRONTS
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
MIDDLE YUKON SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LAST FRONT WEST OF TANANA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 20 MPH RANGE. STILL EXPECT SOME
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG. WEST OF
BARROW AND IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF 2 TO 8 INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WILL BE A MESS AS THE SERIES OF
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THEM...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. WEATHER FRONT YESTERDAY DROPPED UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE SAME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EACH FRONT BRINGING UP TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS. THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING COULD DUMP
AROUND 5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NOATAK AND KOBUK VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. ON SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE
A REPLAY OF SATURDAY. WEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST TODAY BECOME
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 MPH AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WILL TOP OUT AT 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH.
MODELS STILL SHOWING A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 211-214.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES UNDER THE DIRTY
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS DRIVEN EAST
BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SNOW MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT AND
EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. LOOKING LIKE WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED
IN THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOOKING LIKE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 5
FOOT STORM SURGE...BUT MODELS AT THIS RANGE CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ500.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 240000
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DUAL LOW SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SIMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SINGLE LOW AND THEN STALLS ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF HAIDA GWAII BY
FRIDAY. A LARGE NUMBER OF OPEN CELL FEATURES ARE ROTATING ABOUT
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SATELLITE SENSING HAS
AT TIMES IS REPORTING SOME STRIKES AROUND SOUTHERN HECATE STRAIT.
THE FRONTAL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN MOST OF THE DUAL
LOWS IS SHEERING APART OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT ARE NOT DROPPING LARGE RAINFALLS.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND FOR THE MOST PART ARE UNDER 15 KT IN THE
MARINE WATERS. A FEW GUSTIER CHANNELS HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...
AND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE ALSO BRIEFLY PICKING THE WINDS UP...AS
WELL BRINGING SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE REGION WITH THE FEWEST CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS WEST OF
CAPE FAIRWEATHER HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING WEST. AREAS THAT
MANAGE TO HOLD ONTO A LARGER BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY
DEVELOP SOME PATCHY FOG BUT AM NOT THINKING THIS IS A MAJOR ISSUE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROF THAT
WILL EXTEND NW INTO THE ERN GULF FOR FRI-SAT. LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W SUN/MON...BUT
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR S THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL DIG TO THE W OF
THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK...TS ANA WILL BECOME A FACTOR BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT LIFTS NE AND HOW FAR N IT GETS. THE RIDGING
TO THE N SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPRESS THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS OTHER
SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. LATER ON...MODELS
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT SO CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM DETAILS DECREASES. USED
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z GEM FOR FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
JUST USED 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WENT WITH
LATEST WPC FOR THE MOST PART SUN NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR FRI NIGHT-SAT...MINOR VORT SPOKES WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING NWD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SFC TROF WILL BE DRIFTING WWD
FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE ERN GULF BY SAT MORNING...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT FROM THE E LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT OVER
THE ERN INNER CHANNELS. INCREASING NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND OFFSHORE
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE ERN AREAS BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE W. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD STILL BE GOING ON OVER
THE ERN GULF NEAR THE SFC TROF...AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE AND
SPREAD ONSHORE SUN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND LOWER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE N HALF OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE SRN PART OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
DID ADJUST POPS FROM WPC TO SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE N BASED
ON FAIRLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVING
THRU THE NRN AREA FOR MON-TUE. ALSO...LOOKS COOLER DURING EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK SO DID LOWER TEMPS SOME ESPECIALLY OVER THE N. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW COLD IT GETS AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W TOWARD MIDWEEK. FOR
NOW...KEPT PTYPE AS RAIN FOR NEAR SEA LEVEL AREAS BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS IF MODELS TREND COLDER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK68 PAFC 232218
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
218 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

500MB...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND GULF
MOVE EAST AS THE BERING SEA RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA ACTS AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR TROUGHS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SAT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TROUGHS
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND FRI AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE YUKON ON SAT. BROAD ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND HOLDS
THROUGH SAT. A FEW MINOR WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIPPLE EAST ACROSS
THE BERING SEA. COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE EASTERN RUSSIA
LOW SUN DIGS OUT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SETTING UP A
FAIRLY BROAD SW JET. AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MAINLAND.

.SURFACE...

A FEW SHOWERS WITH WEAK TROUGHING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTH GULF.
SKIES ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
PERSISTENT STRATUS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUTFLOW WINDS
CONTINUED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
WESTERN KENAI PEN. OUT WEST...OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE DELTA. THIS AFTERNOON...THE
COAST CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT
AND SNOW RAPIDLY CHANGED OVER TO RAIN.


&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. OUT WEST...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES UNDER STRONG W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. THE
NAM AND EC ARE THE FASTER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
WELL BEHIND. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN LIGHT OF THE INITIAL STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THEN
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA ON SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST GULF WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO COOK INLET FRI LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT SHARPER AND
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL(850-700MB) FLOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SWLY.
THE RESULT COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON FRI WITH LITTLE
MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COASTS AND
KENAI PEN...SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE
RAIN OR A MIX. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SAT WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL RAPIDLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL BE INCREASING
THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. COASTAL AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN AND SNOW MIXES. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY THIS
EVENING AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES POCKETS OF SHALLOW COLD SURFACE
AIR. WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A FAST MOVING FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE BERING WILL CLEAR THE
EASTERN BERING TONIGHT LEAVING LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

MODEL CONSISTENCY...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS...REMAINS A
PROBLEM. OVERNIGHT OPERATIONAL RUNS RAPIDLY LOST AGREEMENT,
ALTHOUGH THE MORNING RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC WERE MUCH
CLOSER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE DECISION OF WPC TO BEGIN
WITH A 00Z EC MEAN AS A STARTING POINT. THE GRIDS REPRESENT A
BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE...AND WITH WINDS ENHANCED WITH THE 00Z
EC. THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT THERE IS SOME HOPE
THAT THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

THE SOLUTION INVOLVES TWO FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE BERING AND
WESTERN AK OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE INITIAL FRONT...FROM A
BERING STRAIT LOW...MOVES INTO WESTERN AK AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MON AND DISSIPATES RAPIDLY ON TUE. THE SECOND LOW AND
FRONT AFFECT THE WESTERN BERING TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT REACHING
WESTERN AK THU BEFORE DISSIPATING INLAND BY FRI. YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON FRI.

WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVE
INTO SE AK LATER ON MON AND FORM AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THAT PERSISTS THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE GULF ON THU.

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS ON MON..AND
THEN RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS WED AND THU. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRI. SOME GALES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS AS THEY TRANSIT THE BERING.

SOUTHWEST AK WILL HAVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MON...DRYING ON
TUE...RAIN AND SNOW WED INTO THU...AND SHOWERS LATER ON THU INTO
FRI.

SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE GENERALLY DRY INLAND THROUGH FRI WITH
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TUE AND WED.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT 138 150.
         GALE 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

$$

RMC/DS OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 232150
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MID
TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. NUDGED CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM12...GFS AND ECMWF AND 50 PERCENT CONTINUITY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 500 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA CONTINUES
TO EDGE TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN A NOW WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
EAST FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE SPINS OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA AND WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 984 MB LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ON
SHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. LOCALLY UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE YK DELTA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
TO LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK
DELTA.

SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST SMALL CRAFT WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY IN THE BERING SEA WILL
GENERATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. LATEST TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CREATE MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN KOTZEBUE
SOUND SO THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF HAS DIMINISHED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 211...212...213
AND 214. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE 25 MPH TO 35 MPH
RANGE WILL CREATE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE AS 6
TO 8 FOOT WAVES BREAK NEAR SHORE. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTON BAY WHERE UP TO A 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 232150
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MID
TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. NUDGED CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM12...GFS AND ECMWF AND 50 PERCENT CONTINUITY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 500 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA CONTINUES
TO EDGE TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN A NOW WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
EAST FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE SPINS OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA AND WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 984 MB LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ON
SHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. LOCALLY UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE YK DELTA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
TO LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK
DELTA.

SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST SMALL CRAFT WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY IN THE BERING SEA WILL
GENERATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. LATEST TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CREATE MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN KOTZEBUE
SOUND SO THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF HAS DIMINISHED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 211...212...213
AND 214. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE 25 MPH TO 35 MPH
RANGE WILL CREATE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE AS 6
TO 8 FOOT WAVES BREAK NEAR SHORE. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTON BAY WHERE UP TO A 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 231322
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
522 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO
LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE STATE AS A STOUT FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
BERING STRENGTHENS AN EASTERN BERING RIDGE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST. THE EASTERN SIBERIA UPPER LOW COMPLEX DRIVING THE WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE BERING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE POLAR JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL DECOUPLE THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JETS...AND WILL USHER IN A FASTER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW (WHICH
ALSO INCLUDES THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ANA). THE GFS
FAVORS A WEAKER INTERACTION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GDPS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE FORMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GDPS WOULD FAVOR DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
FOR THE TIME BEING...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND IS
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS AND ECMWF WERE FAVORED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLENDED WPC
APPROACH FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE AREA HOLDS ON TO A
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
GULF COAST INTO THOMPSON PASS WILL QUICKLY END THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND FRIDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN. INTERIOR LOCATIONS FROM ANCHORAGE WEST WILL ONLY SEE
A GLANCING BLOW AS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL DOWNSLOPE
MOST OF THE MOISTURE OUT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE COPPER BASIN AND NORTH GULF COAST INTO SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL RAPIDLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR WILL LINGER LONGER.
OTHERWISE...COASTAL LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT TO RAPIDLY CHANGE TO RAIN
WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF INITIAL SNOW. WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A FAST MOVING FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE BERING WILL CLEAR THE
EASTERN BERING TONIGHT LEAVING LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO NO SATELLITE DATA BEING INGESTED. AGREED WITH WPC
ASSESSMENT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD ONLY BE MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY BY VARIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR NOW.

THE CURRENT SOLUTION BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF AK LATE SUN THAT PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION AT BEST FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF COAST.

A FRONT FROM A LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING
ON TUE...AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL BRING A
SECOND FRONT TO THE WESTERN AK COAST ON THU. TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SMALL CRAFT TO
GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST AK WILL BE DRY UNTIL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH
THE INITIAL FRONT TUE AND THE SECOND FRONT THU.

-DS

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT 138 150.
         GALE 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER OCT 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 231230
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
430 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING TWO 985 MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHER PACIFIC ROTATING AROUND EACH
OTHER. THE LOW LOCATED WEST OF HAIDA GWAII WILL AFFECT OUR AREA
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WESTWARD
MERGING WITH THE THE SECOND LOW LATER IN THE DAY. THE RESULTING
CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII
AGAIN AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY.

CLEAR BREAKS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
AND TEMPS DROPPED DOWN TO FREEZING DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOCAL VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD.
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN LIGHT BUT DO
EXPECT MORE SHOWER BANDS TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE REFORMED LOW MOVES BACK NEAR HAIDA GWAII.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATER
IN THE DAY AS FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING APART
WHILE IT MOVES NORTH AND FORCING MECHANISMS WEAKEN SO SHOWERS WILL
BE SCATTERED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPE AROUND 200
TO 400 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF 0 TO -2C SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER STORMS OVER THE SE AK GULF.

OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND
10 FT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REFORMED LOW MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE SE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON. ELSEWHERE WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WITH SOME
EASTERLY GAP AND OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN THE SE GULF LOW AND HIGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW
PULLS OFF THE WEST. WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE REFORMED LOW NEARS HAIDA GWAII.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN
THE N PACIFIC VERY WELL SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. LOTS OF
SHIFTING IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW CENTERS AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND EACH OTHER. MODEL CHOICE WAS MAINLY PICKING ONES THAT WERE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN LESS CHANGE RUN TO RUN. DECIDED
TO USE A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WHICH
DID SHIFT THE LOW BACK EAST SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AND ALTERED SOME
WIND SPEEDS. MODELS ALSO HAD A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING PRECIP BANDS
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/SREF, WITH BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN
THE NAM.

.LONG TERM...MID RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE A LITTLE ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE CONSOLIDATING LOW BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST OF HAIDA GWAII IN CONJUNCTION OF ANOTHER WEAK LOW FORMING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME A
BIT ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE NORTHERN GULF LOW AND
THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT INCREASING
OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS STAY UNDER SCATTERED
SHOWERS. NONE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GIVEN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HANDLES THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WELL. DECIDED TO MAKE A TEMPORAL
TRANSITION FROM THE SHORT TERM FORECAST OF NAM AND ECMWF BASED
SOLUTIONS AND MADE SMOOTH CONNECTION TO THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUNDAY ONWARD.

MODELS CONTINUE DIVERTING FOR NEXT WEEK AS THEY HANDLE THE
TROPICAL STORM ANA...CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. THE JTWC PREDICTS ANA WILL WEAKEN AND
RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR 30N/170W...THEN
HEADING TOWARD HAIDA GWAII THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER HAIDA GWAII WITH WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEAR-
STATIONARY LOW OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII PRODUCES SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS/SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITHIN NORMAL RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MAINTAINS SOUTHERN AREAS WARMER THAN NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-043-051-052.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK69 PAFG 231033
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL. CONTINUE WITH VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT BEYOND SATURDAY IS ANYONES
GUESS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS A FEW
DAYS AGO WHEN THEY WERE 180 OUT FROM EACH OTHER. WILL NUDGE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A PAIR OF 525 DAM LOWS ARE MERGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING MOVES TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS
EVENING...THEN OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH
FROM A 499 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES. A
524 DAM LOW OVER BARROW WILL MOVE NORTH AND BE ABSORBED BY THE
EXPANDING LOW OVER SIBERIA. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1038MB HIGH NEAR 80N 170W WILL MOVE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL FINALLY
MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREAS AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES TO THE INTERIOR
FROM THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 1002MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATING. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 971MB LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND THIS MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW STORM SURGES OF LESS THAN
2 FEET ON THE COAST WITH THE FIRST WAVE. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
TO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR FORECAST SURGE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FETCH THE LENGTH OF THE BERING SEA WHICH
PERSISTS FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE IS STARTS BREAKING DOWN. THIS
COULD GENERATE WINDS WAVES OF 13 TO 20 FEET OFFSHORE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS DOWN FROM THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREAS EVEN AS
THEY SWINGS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A BIT
TODAY AND MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. FLURRIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST...BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS IMPROVED.TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND THEN DRIFTS JUST OFFSHORE SATURDAY. STILL NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL MOVE OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY AROUND NOON
TODAY. PRECIPITATION STARTS AS SNOW THIS MORNING THEN CHANGES TO
RAIN ON THE ISLAND BY AFTERNOON. ONCE IT MAKES IT TO THE COAST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW NORTH OF NORTON SOUND...BUT WILL
MIX WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.
SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE NULATO HILLS. COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 FOOT OF STORM SURGE AS THE SYSTEM COMES ASHORE.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WAVES
NEAR SHORE BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES. A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE RAIN AND SNOW UP THE COAST...BUT
NOT MUCH TO THE INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE NULATO HILLS...AND A
THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
A LOT OF SNOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT MANY AREAS WILL GET
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STEADY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS EXTENDED PERSISTENT FETCH OVER
THE BERING SEA WILL PRODUCE NEAR SHORE WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ500.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 230015
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT EXHIBIT MODERATE SPREAD IN THE MID TERM. MODEL SUITES
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD AND MODEL TO
MODEL SPREAD NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS IF ONE CAN BE FORGED OUT OF THE
WIDELY VARYING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR A LARGE STORM TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING SEA NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE WEST COAST...TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA AT 522 DAM LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A
498 DAM LOW SITS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
MOVES IT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THRU NIGHT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND INTO HE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITS INTO CANADA SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 80 NORTH AND
175 WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A 984 MB LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA MOVES EAST AND NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
AS A 978 MB LOW AND DISPLACES THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS
THE HIGH MOVES NORTH THE STRONG GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ON
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND PROVIDING STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT AND IN THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND TOMORROW ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL PROVIDE A LONG DURATION
BUT FAVORABLE FETCH TO SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES NORTH OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. HOISTED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
207...209...211...212...213 AND 214. NOT EXPECTING COASTAL
FLOODING AS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ENOUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL...HOWEVER 6 TO 8 FOOT
WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
NORTON SOUND.

LIGHT SNOW...MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK DELTA WILL MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY AND LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...211...212...213
AND 214 AS PROLONGED SOUTHWEST WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH HOUR RANGE WILL BUFFET SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES.
6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE. EASTERN NORTON SOUND WILL
RECEIVE A 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE BERING SEA STORM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 230015
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT EXHIBIT MODERATE SPREAD IN THE MID TERM. MODEL SUITES
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD AND MODEL TO
MODEL SPREAD NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS IF ONE CAN BE FORGED OUT OF THE
WIDELY VARYING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR A LARGE STORM TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING SEA NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE WEST COAST...TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA AT 522 DAM LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A
498 DAM LOW SITS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
MOVES IT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THRU NIGHT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND INTO HE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITS INTO CANADA SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 80 NORTH AND
175 WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A 984 MB LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA MOVES EAST AND NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
AS A 978 MB LOW AND DISPLACES THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS
THE HIGH MOVES NORTH THE STRONG GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ON
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND PROVIDING STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT AND IN THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND TOMORROW ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL PROVIDE A LONG DURATION
BUT FAVORABLE FETCH TO SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES NORTH OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. HOISTED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
207...209...211...212...213 AND 214. NOT EXPECTING COASTAL
FLOODING AS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ENOUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL...HOWEVER 6 TO 8 FOOT
WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
NORTON SOUND.

LIGHT SNOW...MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK DELTA WILL MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY AND LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...211...212...213
AND 214 AS PROLONGED SOUTHWEST WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH HOUR RANGE WILL BUFFET SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES.
6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE. EASTERN NORTON SOUND WILL
RECEIVE A 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE BERING SEA STORM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 222349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...OVERALL THE PATTERN IS RUNNING AS EXPECTED. THE LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND NEW LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTH AND START CURVING BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST BY HAIDA GWAII WED NIGHT. A RESIDUAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OLD `PARENT` LOW HEADED SOUTH IS BEING AIDED BY A JET STREAK
(INCREASING TO THE 120-140KT RANGE) HELPING TO DIG THE UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD AND IN RESPONSE, THE
DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF THE FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST BACK TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

A BAND OF STRATI-FORM RAIN IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AS THE SECOND LOW IS TRYING TO ROTATE ABOUT THE FIRST AND MOVE AWAY
FROM HAIDA GWAII. OTHERWISE, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE REGION
AS WELL. THE SMALL EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS OVER THE LYNN CANAL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE LOW
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN THIS EVENING.

SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MONITORED OVER THE WATERS AROUND
HAIDA GWAII EARLIER TODAY MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT DO
NOT THINK THAT WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST EAST ALASKA

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. THE
PAIR OF LOWS ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COALESCE INTO A VERY WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND FADE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, A WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN UP INTO A TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW AIDES IN DRYING OUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO CHURN NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT TPW IMAGERY INDICATING
3 OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF 50N
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT GFS IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH, AS THAT
MODEL IS RUNNING THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IN A VERY ZONAL PATTERN WITH
A VERY CLEAR AND LARGE SEPARATION BETWEEN IT AND THE POLAR JET.
ECMWF AND GEM ARE STILL DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVELY, CAUSING A PERTURBATION IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THE
ECMWF THEN PICKS UP THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ANA AND CARRIES
IT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS, BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR, NOR AS STRONG, AS
YESTERDAY. IN THAT REGARD, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT, BUT THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CAN BE LABELED "HIGH CONFIDENCE". AS IT
IS, THE CURRENT LONG RANGE FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH WPC
AND KEEPS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER HAIDA GWAII AND HECATE
STRAIT NEXT TUESDAY OR LATER. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY AT ALL.

USED ECMWF AS THE FOUNDATION FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND
DIRECTIONS OVER THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BLENDED WITH GEM
AND NAM AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME DERIVED FROM
NAM. BLENDED CURRENT SREF TO EXISTING POP GRIDS - LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-036-041-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 222349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...OVERALL THE PATTERN IS RUNNING AS EXPECTED. THE LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND NEW LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTH AND START CURVING BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST BY HAIDA GWAII WED NIGHT. A RESIDUAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OLD `PARENT` LOW HEADED SOUTH IS BEING AIDED BY A JET STREAK
(INCREASING TO THE 120-140KT RANGE) HELPING TO DIG THE UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD AND IN RESPONSE, THE
DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF THE FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST BACK TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

A BAND OF STRATI-FORM RAIN IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AS THE SECOND LOW IS TRYING TO ROTATE ABOUT THE FIRST AND MOVE AWAY
FROM HAIDA GWAII. OTHERWISE, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE REGION
AS WELL. THE SMALL EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS OVER THE LYNN CANAL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE LOW
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN THIS EVENING.

SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MONITORED OVER THE WATERS AROUND
HAIDA GWAII EARLIER TODAY MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT DO
NOT THINK THAT WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST EAST ALASKA

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. THE
PAIR OF LOWS ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COALESCE INTO A VERY WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND FADE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, A WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN UP INTO A TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW AIDES IN DRYING OUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO CHURN NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT TPW IMAGERY INDICATING
3 OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF 50N
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT GFS IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH, AS THAT
MODEL IS RUNNING THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IN A VERY ZONAL PATTERN WITH
A VERY CLEAR AND LARGE SEPARATION BETWEEN IT AND THE POLAR JET.
ECMWF AND GEM ARE STILL DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVELY, CAUSING A PERTURBATION IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THE
ECMWF THEN PICKS UP THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ANA AND CARRIES
IT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS, BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR, NOR AS STRONG, AS
YESTERDAY. IN THAT REGARD, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT, BUT THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CAN BE LABELED "HIGH CONFIDENCE". AS IT
IS, THE CURRENT LONG RANGE FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH WPC
AND KEEPS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER HAIDA GWAII AND HECATE
STRAIT NEXT TUESDAY OR LATER. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY AT ALL.

USED ECMWF AS THE FOUNDATION FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND
DIRECTIONS OVER THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BLENDED WITH GEM
AND NAM AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME DERIVED FROM
NAM. BLENDED CURRENT SREF TO EXISTING POP GRIDS - LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-036-041-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK68 PAFC 222143
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
143 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

500MB...A BROAD LOW COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL CENTERS WERE EVIDENT
OVER THE GULF AND NE PACIFIC. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH A TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE GULF LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND DRIFT SE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
RUSSIA/BERING SEA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SHOVES IT EAST AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND FRI MORNING. AS A RESULT...NEARLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGHS TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

NEAR SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE
WSW AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS ON ITS LEADING EDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...SOUTHCENTRAL WAS RELATIVELY CLEAR. OUTFLOW WINDS WERE
EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES. OUT WEST...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN AK PEN AND STREAMED SOUTH INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC. A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA SET UP BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. TIMING OF THE FIRST FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE BERING SEA
TONIGHT AND THU IS SIMILAR ON ALL THE MODELS. SOME TIMING ISSUES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FRONTS WHICH TYPICALLY OCCURS UNDER
STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LACK OF A STRONG
PUSH OF DRY AIR INTO THE COPPER BASIN WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE BASIN...BUT MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY AND LARGELY CLEAR. SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW INLAND FRI AND SAT WITH A MIX
ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FALL WEST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
OVERNIGHT... THOUGH THE EASTERN KENAI AND WESTERN COASTAL MARINE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BRISK W TO NW WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
LARGELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES OFFSHORE/OUTFLOW ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND
THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALASKA RANGE. A FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE COASTS AND MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE LATER THU.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TODAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. A
FAST MOVING FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL
SPREAD TO THE EASTERN BERING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO NO SATELLITE DATA BEING INGESTED. AGREED WITH WPC
ASSESSMENT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD ONLY BE MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY BY VARIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR NOW.

THE CURRENT SOLUTION BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF AK LATE SUN THAT PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION AT BEST FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF COAST.

A FRONT FROM A LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING
ON TUE...AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL BRING A
SECOND FRONT TO THE WESTERN AK COAST ON THU. TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SMALL CRAFT TO
GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST AK WILL BE DRY UNTIL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH
THE INITIAL FRONT TUE AND THE SECOND FRONT THU.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 172 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

RMC/DS OCT 14




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