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000
FXAK67 PAJK 172220
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
220 PM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE
YET COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND JUST SOUTH OF CAPE DECISION. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH NORTH AND HUG ALONG THE COAST, AND WEAKEN. BY FRIDAY,
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY.

 A RATHER MILD THURSDAY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA RISE TO
THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S. SOUTHERN AREAS ARE A BIT COOLER DUE
TO RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE , AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA.

 AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH, IT TIGHTENS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE. NORTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO
15 MPH CAN BE FOUND IN SKAGWAY, HAINES, GUSTAVUS, AND LYNN CANAL
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FRONT IS SITUATED ALONG CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
WEATHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FROM THE SOUTH, THAT
WILL GENERATE A STRONG PUSH OF SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. DO EXPECT THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST NUMERICAL WEATHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON THE WEAKENING LOW TONIGHT AND A
BUILDING RIDGE ON FRIDAY. UTILIZE A SUPERBLEND OF MODELS TO
UPDATE THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
FOR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ITS GOOD
CONSISTENCY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE ALASKA GULF WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AND
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. THEN A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE GULF
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT
BETWEEN THE ERODING RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA. BLENDED NEXT WEEK FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE WPC
SOLUTIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MIXED
WITH A LITTLE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FOR THURSDAY.

 AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS A LOW
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. STRONG WINDS HEADLINE MAY NEED FOR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLANDS. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
PROGRESSING...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
REMAINING LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...EXPECT A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD...SEVERAL POORLY ORGANIZED WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY
TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.

&&

$$

RCL/AHN








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000
FXAK68 PAFC 172054
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1254 PM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES ALL OF
ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A NEAR ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET
CENTERED ALONG 40N. THERE IS ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND BUCKLE IN
THE JET BETWEEN 160W AND 170W WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE GULF.
MEANWHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS A LARGE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS. NUMEROUS
SHORT-WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW PRODUCING MAINLY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVES/SURFACE LOWS OVER THE GULF ARE
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SUNNY SKIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS. THAT WILL
CHANGE TONIGHT AS THE GULF SYSTEMS PROGRESS INLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL WITH
MAJOR FEATURES AND SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW THE SAME IDEA WITH
HANDLING OF INTENSIFYING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC/ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW CURVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF EXPECT TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON EXACT POSITION OF THE TWO LOWS. SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE FURTHER AS THESE LOWS CONSOLIDATE BACK INTO A
SINGLE LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MAINLY AFFECT KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE GULF MARINE AREAS. FOR NOW PREFER THE VERY CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER DO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO AS THESE WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. AS THESE WAVES EXIT TO THE NORTH
AND THE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE GULF A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KICK UP WINDS ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM (INTO PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE) AND THE KNIK RIVER
VALLEY (INTO PALMER). THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED QUICKLY NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD. FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE LOW WHILE A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CRYSTAL CLEAR DAY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW APPROACH SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BERING/ALEUTIAN LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WON`T BE WIDESPREAD...BUT LIKE
SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A LITTLE SOMETHING.
MARGINALLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THE UPPER WAVES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
MAY TURN PRECIPITATION TO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE BERING SYSTEM WILL COMPLETELY
FALL APART THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF BECOMES
DOMINANT. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS
AND PRECIP MAY BACK THERE WAY FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO BRISTOL
BAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE BERING/ALEUTIAN LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND WILL THEN BE TORN APART AS HALF OF THE ENERGY IS PUSHED
NORTHWARD BY THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF AND THE OTHER HALF
IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING
AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD...PROVING BENIGN CONDITIONS
FOR THE WESTERN TO EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT AS IT NEARS THE
ALEUTIANS...SO EXPECT FULL IMPACT OF THIS STORM TO AFFECT THE
ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE DAY 4
THROUGH 7 PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SPREADS OUT ACROSS THE
BERING SEA POSSIBLY AS FAR AS THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE GULF LOW
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD WHILE RIDGING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. THUS EXPECT A QUIET WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS LOOK VERY SPRING-LIKE...SO
EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND 50S INLAND. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

SEB APR 14



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000
FXAK69 PAFG 172042
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1242 PM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER COLD BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE YUKON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE NORTH INTO THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND DECREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY.

AREAS OF FOG AND FLURRIES AND LOW CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST WITH
BACK EDGE JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. EASTERN NORTH SLOPE LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE MID TERM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN BERING
SEA ALASKA SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST TO
INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER PABR TUESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 223 AND 225. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REMAINING SNOW PACK OVER THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MELT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC APR 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 171349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...990 MB LOW WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE THIS MORNING
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AS IT WEAKENS
REACHING CROSS SOUND THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TO AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH IT WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS
YAKUTAT BAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS TIME.

 RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ADVANCING LOW. PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WHILE THE LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE ID TO UPPER 40S TODAY, NOT AS
WARM AS WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. PRECIP WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED
IN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.

 WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS MODELS
HAD ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THERE IS STILL THE SECONDARY WRAP WITH
850 MB WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW OVER THE YUKON
INCREASES.

 MODELS IS FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NAM/EC SHOWING A GOOD MATCH WITH
MSAS PRESSURE GRIDS. LIKED THE ECMWF INITIALIZATION WHEN
COMPARING 300 MB RH AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A NAM/EC
BLEND WAS VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS SO NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH
PRESSURE AND POP FIELDS. DID DROP DOWN WINDS THIS MORNING AS THE
GALES IN THE SOUTHERN AK GULF DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WHILE MODELS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRESS FIELDS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE AS MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAD TOO HIGH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THUS BOOSTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFTS IN STEPHENS PASSAGE AS WELL AS LYNN CANAL. BUT
GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO FLIP NORTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT ADVANCES INTO
THE OUTER GULF FRIDAY. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SOLID GALES WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
OVER ZONE 310 AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES. REDUCED
THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AS THE ORIENTATION
SHOULD BE SUCH THAT THE MAIN CHANNEL WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS NORTHEAST-ORIENTED PASSES. THIS WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND MIDLEVEL JET AT 850 MB ACCELERATES WINDS
TO 50 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AS SUPPORTING LOW ALOFT BROADENS
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN FILLING AND GRADIENTS AND WIND WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT...EVEN BECOMING LIGHT IN SOME AREAS BY
MONDAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO BE STRONG FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR RAIN
TO FALL AS SHOWERS FRIDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MIDLEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FROM A MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. FOR THE GALE-FORCE
SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, DID SHAVE OFF POPS FOR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BECAUSE OF THIS. LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS IS NUDGING THE
FORECAST TO SOMETHING APPROACHING WHAT I REALLY THINK...IE, I
DON`T THINK IT WILL RAIN IN JUNEAU FRIDAY NIGHT. USUALLY STRONG
SYSTEMS ARE PRECEDED BY STRONGER RIDGING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK UP IN THE 50S FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW DRIES THE REGION OUT. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY ACTUALLY COOL AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD RAIN FROM DIXON ENTRANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY END FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT AGAIN, THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT.

NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE...ASSOCIATED WITH POORLY RESOLVED LOWS
OVER THE GULF.

MODELS OF CHOICE WERE GFS/ECMWF IN THE MID-RANGE...WPC IN LONG-
RANGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD OVERALL WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.

&&

$$

PRB/JWA










000
FXAK68 PAFC 171342
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
542 AM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TWO MAIN
PRESSURE CENTERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE SPINNING NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THESE LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATIONS ARE KEEPING RAGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT ARE BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF
...SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND MUCH OF THE BERING. THE NEARLY ZONAL
JET STREAM...WHICH IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...IS MOVING
A BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE WEAK
WAVES MOVING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW CENTERS. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TRACK OF THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GALE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE
GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE MONITORED AS THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY TURN FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN
KENAI THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL EFFECT THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE KENAI
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND...RAIN WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BUT SHOULD SPREAD
RAIN THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ON SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF SLOWLY MIGRATES
WESTWARD THIS MORNING...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER BRISTOL BAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING TODAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE MORNING HOURS.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL THEN RETURN TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY ON
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM
THE SOUTHERN BERING TO THE AKPENN TODAY...KEEPING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM DUTCH HARBOR EAST
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. OUT WEST...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH RIDING THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND. THERE IS
NOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES TO MUCH OF THE MAINLAND UNTIL MID WEEK AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

KH/DEK APR 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 171325
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
525 AM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTH WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH LIES TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND EASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO COVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST ART OF NEXT WEEK.

GENERALLY MILDLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

WINDS ON THE WEST COAST WILL BE MARINE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR ZONE
210. HOWEVER...ZONES 208 AND 225 WILL FLIRT WITH THE CRITERIA
TODAY. SUBSTANTIAL FOG IS OUT AND ABOUT ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA
AND PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST BUT GOING AWAY AS THE MORNING WEARS
ON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODERATELY LOW RH VALUES SHOULD CONTINUE IN FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 225 AND 223. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA WILL LEAVE THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF APR 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 170023
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
423 PM AKDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT AT 500 MB...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS NORTHEAST OF BARROW
EARLIER TODAY AND HAS MOVED NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL REMAINS BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
FEATURES EMBEDDED WILL FILTER THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THERE
WAS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NORTHWARD SPARKING SOME RAIN AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED POCKETS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL
MOVE NEAR BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN START TO
DEVIATE WITH THE ECMWF WEAKENING INTO A LOW TROUGH AND THEN
REDEVELOPING THE LOW OVER ST MATHEW ISLAND AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WHERE AS THE GFS PLACES THE LOW OVER SEWARD PENINSULA. TENDING TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...
A 994 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL MEANDER SLOWLY AROUND
DUTCH HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN REDEVELOP TO 992 MB
LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA WITH A 1020MB HIGH OVER WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST TO 1013 MB BY FRI MORNING WITH LOCATION OVER THE
ARCTIC OCEAN WELL NORTH OF BARROW AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TO BE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN
THE INTERIOR THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN INTERIOR. THE REMNANT OF THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO

NORTH SLOPE...DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
IMPROVED BRIEFLY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST HAVE DEVELOPED DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. AS TYPICAL WITH THE FOG ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE IT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER UP AND DOWN WITH THE
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN SEVERAL SITES WITH DENSE
FOG...HAVE A DENSE FOG HEADLINE THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
FOG AND FLURRIES EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA IS EXTENDING FROM
GALENA TO RUBY AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS BETTLES IN THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING
OVER THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LATEST VIIRS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AT 330 PM AKDT SHOWS THE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALAKSAN RANGE AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. ALSO SEEN IS THE REMNANT OF THE LINE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT EXTENDED FROM GALENA TOWARDS BETTLES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND ALSO HAVE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER
IN THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RAY AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS BETTLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 223 AND 225...EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. ALSO
EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO RANGE IN THE 30S TO 40S. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAK APR 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 162145
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
145 PM AKDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERIES REVEAL A
DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUING ITS NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS
TOWARDS PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND IT WILL MOVE POLEWARD PARALLEL TO
THE OUTER COAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

 WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
ROSE TO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. LOCAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPED IN SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND
JUNEAU AREA. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LAND COOLS OFF.

 WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. FOR BARANOF ISLAND, WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WITH A TIGHTER NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT, DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WILL SEE HIGHER
NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS COMING DOWN FROM SALISBURY RIDGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS ON THURSDAY, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE.

 CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING
NORTHWARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.
YAKUTAT AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, AS THEY ARE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS
HAVE CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ECMWF
AND NAM ARE THE MODELS OF CHOICE. THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR WEST. ALL MODELS AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
DRIFTS NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN DOMINATING THE ENTIRE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THEIR GOOD CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS.

 THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE ALASKA
GULF WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE MID WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER AS THEY HANDLE THE RIDGE
FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF AND THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA. BLENDED THE REMAINING LONG TERM PERIODS
WITH THE WPC SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE APPROACH. SEVERAL
LOWS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

 AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DISSIPATES...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. POPS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE SOUTH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS AND THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY ROUGH
SEAS UP TO 20 FEET ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
PANHANDLE. WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...EXPECT A BRIEF RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF BEFORE ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIANS DRIFTS EASTWARD AND PUSH SEVERAL WEAKER LOWS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033-035-051-052.

&&

$$

RCL/AHN







000
FXAK68 PAFC 162139
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
139 PM AKDT WED APR 16 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA TO SOUTHEAST AK
THIS AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS...WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE COVERS THE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH A COUPLE OF
LOW CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...THE WESTERN
GULF AND NEAR SOUTHEAST AK. THE MAIN JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF
ALASKA AND IS PRETTY MUCH DISASSOCIATED FROM THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS
ALL THAT IS AVAILABLE FOR MOVING AROUND SYSTEMS. THIS MEANS
CURRENT WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF WEAK AND POORLY TIMED WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SEPARATED BY
PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN FOR THE FIRST
DAY OR SO AS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN LOWS BECOME ABSORBED INTO A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS MORE OR LESS OVER THE
SAME AREA INTO SAT...AND THE FORECAST IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL WITH
THE GFS. THE STORY IS DIFFERENT OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN AS THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE INITIAL LOW NEAR SOUTHEAST AK VARIES BY MODEL.
THE EC AND NAM BRING THE LOW INTO THE HAINES SKAGWAY END OF THE
PANHANDLE ON THU...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW TO YAKUTAT. THIS
MORE EASTERN TRAJECTORY OF THE EC-NAM MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THAT
TIME. SINCE THIS SYSTEM MAINLY AFFECTS THE JUNEAU FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE EC AND NAM SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED...WE DEFERRED AND
UTILIZED THAT SOLUTION FOR THE EASTERN DOMAIN AS WELL. THIS MODEL
COMBINATION WAS ALSO APPLIED TO THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THIS
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE GULF WITH WIND FRI AFTERNOON AND BECOMES A
ZONALLY ORIENTED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
NORTH FLOW ON FRI AND NORTHWEST ON SAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...UNTIL
THE SECOND LOW MOVES INLAND THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL SPREAD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INLAND INTO SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH DRYING. COASTAL
AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI INTO SAT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND LOW WILL BRING A
ROUND OF RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUN...BUT A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL THEN SPREAD WIND
AND RAIN LATER SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS. IN THE EAST...THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
GULF OF ALASKA REMAIN IN THE SAME VICINITY WITH WIND AND RAIN
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MON. BRIEF DRYING ON TUE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW ARRIVES ON
WED.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS APR 14




000
FXAK67 PAJK 161352
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
552 AM AKDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOVERNING
WEATHER PATTERN OVER SEAK THE PAST 24 HRS. AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEST TO A LOW
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE AT VARIOUS LEVELS STREAMING INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THEN
CURVING NW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT FARTHER NORTH THAN IT WAS ON TUES
INCLUDING ANGOON...JUNEAU...HAINES...SKAGWAY...AND YAKUTAT. THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WAS TRENDING TO DRIER WEATHER AND DECREASING
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

 THAT TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 52N 140W CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT
PUNCHING INTO THE SW SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF
ACCELERATING WINDS ALOFT. ALL MODELS DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER TO A GALE FORCE 990 MB LOW BY THUR MORNING. THERE IS SOME
VARIATION ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BUT IT LOOKS SAFE TO
SAY IT WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SRN OR CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST
THU MORNING. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS TO MOVE THE
LOW CENTER EAST OF 130W. THIS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST TOGETHER WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW CENTER CONVINCED ME
TO BUMP UP THE SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT FROM ROUGHLY
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION...INCLUDING CLARENCE STRAIT. GALE
WARNINGS AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES WERE ADDED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE ZONES.

 THE BULK OF THE HEAVY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THUR MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO WINDY WEATHER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH BY THUR MORNING AND CONTINUE THURS AS THE RAIN SHIELD
SPREADS NORTHWARD.

 CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND HI RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SUPPORTED THE
EXISTING GRID FORECASTS. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
WIND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE APPROACHING
LOW...IN PARTICULAR WIND SPEEDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IS AVE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SECOND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AK GULF AFTER
REMNANTS OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
YUKON. SPREAD WITH SURFACE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS
CONTINUES HOWEVER MANY MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

 THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SECONDARY WRAP HITTING THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. PRECIP WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE TRACKING LOW AND WILL MOSTLY SWITCH TO
SHOWERS WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE.

 THE NEXT LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. COUPLED WITH A 130 KT JET STREAM BY
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FAST MOVING LOW CENTER WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND
976 MB AS IT REACHES 50N/140W. CURRENT MODEL DEPICTIONS HAVE THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AK GULF WITH THE CENTER ROTATING
COUNTER CLOCKWISE WHILE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY EXITING THE AREA
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE GRADIENT
FLIPS. EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH
850 MB WINDS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD.

 MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN TIP OF THE
ALEUTIANS, THE AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH DEVELOPING WAVES. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
NEXT FEATURE.

 KEPT WITH THE EC/NAM SOLUTION THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE AS A BLEND OF THE NEW MODELS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WHERE 00Z ECMWF/GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND MOVES THE LOW
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT WPC GRIDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD WITH
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EXACT
DETAILS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033-035-043-051-052.

&&

$$

TA/PRB







000
FXAK69 PAFG 161329
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
529 AM AKDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME
FRAME THE MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE A LITTLE AT 72 HOURS AND THEN
THEY RAPIDLY FALL APART.

THE CURRENT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUED TO BE ATTACKED BY A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE STATE. INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MANY
LOCATIONS. THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO
OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THU.

EXTENSIVE FOG OVER THE ARCTIC COAST IS FADING IN AND OUT BUT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL OVER A FEW OF THE WEST
COAST MARINE ZONES AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THU.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 30 PERCENT AREA FOR ZONE
223 BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR ZONE 225 FOR TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF APR 14




000
FXAK68 PAFC 161323
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKDT WED APR 16 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WITH
A WEAKER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
CIRCULATION IS STREAMING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS INITIATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF...KENAI PENINSULA AND SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A
HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN IS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND SPREADING TOWARD KODIAK. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM KING SALMON TO HOOPER BAY. THE BERING HAS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT SHEMYA EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE CLOSED LOW IN THE BERING WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST CENTERING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING WILL ALLOW A
COLDER AIR MASS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW CENTER. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH USE OF THE ECMWF USED FOR
MOST OF THE UPDATES BEYOND 30 HOURS AS IT PREDOMINANTLY HAD THE BEST
MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY AS LOW THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND COOK INLET LATER TODAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...AS A WEAK
WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES FROM THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SNOW WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE BERING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AS WELL AS IN THE BERING SEA. AS THESE IMPULSES
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN NEARLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A LARGE MULTI CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MAKE PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ULTIMATELY PHASING
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY PRIOR TO
THE LOW PHASING WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THE LOWS
PHASE...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BERING SEA LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN RESPECT TO A
LOW PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW AS THE ECMWF WANTS TO EXTEND THE
SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHILE THE GFS CONSOLIDATES
MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE EVENTUAL POSITION
AND ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. OVER THE BERING SEA...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SKIRTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BERING SEA DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
EARLY TUESDAY WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

KH/MMC APR 14




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