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000
FXAK67 PAJK 291336
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
536 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Broad complex upper low centered over western BC
early this morning will gradually shift westward through Sunday
night. At the surface, a weak trough which is currently over the
central panhandle will shift into the NE gulf and dissipate Sunday
evening as a surface ridge begins building over the region. This
will effectively end the offshore flow regime and the resultant
sunny skies/warm temps over the northern panhandle. By late
Sunday night expect generally cloudy skies with scattered showers
area-wide. Winds are currently northerly over the northern inner
channels and light across the south. Expect a transition to
southerly winds through Sunday night as the surface ridge begins
to build. Winds should remain on the light side.

Inherited forecast was in good shape. Changes were limited to
minor local edits for winds. Nudged high temps up a bit over the
north where there should be just high overcast for much of the
day. Brought overnight lows up some on Sunday night due to the
expected lower cloud cover and shower activity.

.LONG TERM...A broad upper low will dominate the eastern gulf, the
panhandle, and much of western Canada at the start of the
extended range forecast. This feature will weaken through Monday
night as another upper low with a surface reflection tracks north
into the central gulf on Tuesday. Resulting deep layer
southwesterly flow will allow moist onshore flow to resume across
southeast Alaska and showers will give way to rain. Model
agreement in this regard is rather good, so have gone fairly
aggressive with the pop in updates tonight. By late in the week,
models are indicating that a developing wave will enter the
southeastern gulf but there are still some timing differences.
opted to use gfs22 to depict this feature crossing the
southwestern outer coast thursday.

The Tuesday surface low will feature small craft winds over a
significant portion of the eastern Gulf and this portion of the
extended forecast has not changed. Post frontal trough associated
with the Tuesday low now looking like it will also have small
craft winds and have modified the winds over the gulf Wednesday
and Wednesday night to reflect this. As before, am not expecting
much of a wind response over the inner channels and have no small
craft conditions on the inside.

Majority of the forecast remains unchanged from yesterday, with the
exception of pop/qpf grids and Wednesday winds. Overall forecast
confidence is average.


&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

$$

DEL/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau



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000
FXAK68 PAFC 290033
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Dry conditions prevail across the southern mainland this
afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant weather pattern
with an upper ridge centered along the Seward Peninsula. Several
low pressure systems surround the ridge. To it`s southeast, low
pressure over British Columbia is moving a shortwave across the
eastern Gulf and Panhandle. To the west...a low centered south of
Dutch Harbor is stationary with a second low over Kamchatka moving
a strong shortwave across the Western Aleutians. At the surface,
the pattern over the southern Mainland is a weak trough between
ridging to the north and south. The Bering pattern is slightly
more active; however, the two surface features are filling with
one over the eastern Aleutians and the other just north of Shemya.
The next storm system to watch across the Bering is currently
organizing south of the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in good agreement with the synoptic pattern
through Monday night. The main challenge across the southern
mainland into Monday is the timing of an easterly wave which
brings thunderstorm potential for the Copper River Basin on
Sunday. For the Bering and Aleutians, the main focus shifts to the
developing storm system in the North Pacific which quickly moves
to the Western Aleutians Chain early Sunday. The NAM was favored
for Southcentral and the Gulf with the use of the GFS and ECMWF
for the Southwest and Bering.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected during peak heating
of the afternoons and evenings across the southern Mainland. The
greatest concern today is across the Susitna Valley where
temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 70s. A Red Flag
Warning was issued for warm and dry conditions combined with
stronger northerly flow which develops this afternoon as the
ridge to the north squeezes the pressure gradient as it shifts
southeast. Conditions will improve briefly overnight and then
return for much of Sunday. A warning is also being issued for the
Middle Kuskokwim Valley and inland areas of the Kuskokwim Delta,
as warmer and drier conditions spread westward on Sunday along
with stronger northerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main story in today`s forecast will be the well above average
temperatures and dry conditions for parts of the Mainland. More
summer-type clouds will show up for most areas, especially over
the mountains. rain showers will begin to work into the eastern
Copper River Basin this evening and overnight spreading westward
through Sunday afternoon. Most of this activity will be concentrated
along the mountains but isolated showers can not be ruled out in
most areas. The only chance for thunderstorms will be in the
Copper River Basin tomorrow. Temperatures will remain above normal
with light winds through Monday.

As ridging aloft begins to slide off to the northwest tonight,
cooler air aloft filters into the area from the east. That cold
air will bring instability, especially over higher terrain, and
bring diurnal showers or even thunderstorms to the area.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The southwest Mainland will continue to warm under sunny skies
and lighter winds this evening as ridging persists overhead. Sunny
and warm weather will continue over Kuskokwim Valley/Delta on
Sunday as well, along with increasing northeasterly flow in
advance of a developing surface trough. To the east over the
Alaska Range, weak instability will bring showers and possibly
even a strike or two through Sunday evening. These showers will
then spread throughout the southwest Mainland on Monday as a
shortwave moves overhead. There remains some uncertainty with how
strong this feature will be, but there in reasonable confidence
that this wave will spread showers throughout the area on Monday,
possibly with a few thunderstorms. If the shortwave becomes as
strong as the NAM is indicating, this would increase the confidence
in thunderstorm development, especially over Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The focus is beginning to shift to a Northwest Pacific low that
will increase to gale force as it moves into the western/central
Aleutians on Sunday. Model agreement is improving on the track of
this low...allowing gale force winds to be added to the forecast
for most of the central and eastern Aleutians into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Tuesday through Saturday)...
The dominant high pressure center creating warm and dry conditions
across the Mainland will slowly retreat to the west through early
next week. This will allow increasingly cyclonic flow to enter the
Gulf of Alaska and southern Mainland during the week. At this
point it looks likely that the most active weather will stay far
enough out to sea in the Gulf that most of the area will continue
to see a fairly good amount of sunshine, though diurnal shower
(and maybe thunderstorm) activity will slowly increase throughout
the week. Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutian region will
remain generally under the influence of high pressure and strong
low-level inversions that keep fog and stratus a persistent problem.
This large-scale weather pattern is very typical for this time of
year, and as such temperatures and sensible weather should follow
suit and be fairly close to climatology for temperatures and
precipitation across the forecast area next week.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning 145 153 155.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...AMD



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000
FXAK69 PAFG 282150
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather expected over much of Northern Alaska
through the mid week..while areas south of Fortymile country and
will start to see isolated thunderstorms starting Sunday and
spreading towards the Alaska Range Monday. Models have been in
fairly decent agreement with the upper level high pressure system
located over over the Norton Sound area and shifting northward
toward Point Hope by Memorial Day. All models consistently show an
upper level low developing over the Yukon area and as it continue
to move west across the Alaska Range weakening into an upper
level shortwave and associated surface low. By Tuesday the
shortwave and surface low will be located toward Yukon Delta. The
upper level high will get pushed into Russia with ridge extending
across Western Coast as a stronger upper level low develops over
the Arctic west of Banks Island and with an extending trough over
Eastern Alaska. The associated surface low over Mackenzie Bay on
Tuesday will slide southwest along the Alaska Range by Wednesday
and remain a thermal trough through the Friday. Resulting in
increased shower and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday through
Friday for Eastern Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Easterly flow will increase this
evening as the pressure gradient along the Beaufort Sea Coast
increases. This is a result of the 1034 mb high pressure moving
south and east towards the Beaufort Sea coast and increasing the
pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast through Sunday evening.
East winds in the Beaufort Sea will reach minimum Small Craft
criteria Sunday and persist into Monday before subsiding as high
pressure moves east towards Banks Island. Winds will also increase
along the Arctic Coast from Barrow through Barter Island through
Monday. Expect low ceilings in stratus to persist through evening
with some flurries expected along the Arctic Coast. Warming
temperates with ice free waters may increase chance of fog along
the Arctic Coast overnight.

West Coast and Western interior: Quiet weather wise as clear
skies with warmer temperatures, and dry conditions will persist
across Western Alaska . As the short wave moves west to east along
the Gulf Coast of Alaska on Monday...it may spark off a few
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening over the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley.

Eastern and Central Interior: Skies have cleared out overnight
across much of the eastern and central interior. Fair weather
cumulus clouds have developed this afternoon from Tanana east.
Warmer and dry conditions anticipated through Memorial Day.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase for Southeast portions of the
forecast area from Chicken south on Sunday as instability
increases over the area. Areal coverage for the possibility of
thunderstorms expands Monday to include all of the Alaska Range
from McGrath east as the shortwave moves west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue as
advertised into early next week. No thunderstorm activity is
expected this afternoon or evening. There is a potential for some
isolatedthunderstorms on Sunday from Chicken south to Northway.
On Monday, the coverage area for isolated thunderstorms expands to
include the Alaska Range and upper portions of the Kuskokwim
Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic issues are expected. Warmer conditions
will allow for increase snowmelt and resulting runoff but no
concerns for river rises anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAK MAY 16




000
FXAK67 PAJK 281354
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
554 AM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Weather over the next 24 hours will be influenced
by a broad and nearly stationary upper low centered east of Haida
Gwaii. At the surface a weak trough of low pressure bisects the
panhandle from east to west, roughly along Frederick Sound. This
trough will shift slowly west and weaken through Saturday night.
North of this feature, a continuation of the partly to mostly
cloudy skies and warm temps are expected due to an offshore flow
regime. Along and south of this boundary, onshore flow and lower
cloudiness, along with scattered shower activity will continue.
Kept the thunder chances along and just south of the surface
trough where greater boundary layer heating and surface
convergence should occur. Added a slight chance of thunder for the
Hyder area as a couple of weak shortwaves rotating westward may
allow convection over western BC to drift into this area during
the afternoon.

Shortwave crossing the coast range early this morning along with a
tight offshore gradient causing some gusty conditions near
downtown Juneau. These winds should relax this morning as the
weak wave pull west and the gradient weakens. Added a small craft
for Cross Sound this afternoon as heating over the interior should
enhance sea breeze circulations.

Models were in decent agreement. Minimal changes were made to the
previous forecast. Used hi-res guidance to adjust wind directions
over the inner channels. Forecast confidence is above average.

.LONG TERM...Upper level omega block with the high centered over
the western interior and lows over the Aleutians and western
Canada will break down early on in the extended range forecast
period. The upper high will pinch off as the low over western
Canada moves west. This low will then begin to weaken and an
upper ridge will build in over the panhandle on Monday. Ridging
will be short lived as an upper low will enter the central gulf
from the south on Tuesday and rotate an upper trough north over
the eastern gulf and panhandle.

At the surface, scattered shower activity will continue over
southeast Alaska as the upper low over western Canada moves west
through Monday. By Monday morning, a front will enter the eastern
gulf from the south and reach the southern outer coast Monday
night. Models not in very good agreement on the timing of this
feature, but all are depicting wet weather through at least mid
week. Updates to this portion of the forecast used a truncated gfs22
pop field. Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs are indicating a second
low and associated front moving in from the west late on
Wednesday, and then a third low approaching from the south
Thursday night.

Winds associated with these various lows not looking like they
will get above small craft intensity over the gulf with limited
response over the inner channels, which would be typical for the
late Spring.

No significant low level temperature advection with any of these
lows, but increasing cloud cover will likely result in lower
daytime highs. extended range temps adjusted down to be more in
line with ensemble model plumes, but will need additional
refinement.

Overall forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022.
&&

$$

DEL/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau




000
FXAK69 PAFG 281305
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
505 AM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Relatively quiet and beautiful weather is expected for much of
Northern Alaska through most of the forecast period. The 28/00z
deterministic models are in good agreement through Tuesday
regarding the overall placement of synoptic features...then slowly
diverge thereafter...though only with the timing and strength of
features.

The main feature of concern is the strong upper level ridge
currently parked over Western Alaska. This ridge will remain in
place today, but will then start to retreat westward Sunday into
early next week. An upper level shortwave will move south along
the eastern periphery of the ridge, moving over the Upper Tanana
Valley and Eastern Alaska Range Sunday afternoon. This shortwave
will move east to west south of the Alaska Range through Tuesday
morning. The aforementioned upper level ridge will then build back
east Tuesday. An upper level low will drop south from 80N and over
the Beaufort Sea Wednesday, weakening the upper level ridge and
pushing it west over Eastern Siberia. However, there are
differences between the GFS and ECWMF regarding this low where the
GFS is a bit faster bringing the low south. Meanwhile, an upper
low in the Northern Pacific moves north and into the Gulf of
Alaska Wednesday and then moves west along the coast Wednesday
evening and Thursday. At the surface, a 1034 mb high pressure will
move south and east towards the Beaufort Sea coast increasing the
pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast this evening through
Sunday evening, then will shift east towards Banks Island early
next week.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Easterly flow will increase this
evening into the overnight as the pressure gradient along the
Beaufort Sea Coast increases. East winds in the Beaufort Sea will
reach minimum Small Craft criteria Sunday and persist into Monday
before subsiding as high pressure moves east towards Banks Island.
Low ceilings in stratus have been reported along the Arctic Coast.
Expect low ceilings in stratus to persist today, but should start
to see ceilings lift and clear out late this evening and
overnight. Fog may become an issue as temperatures warm and ice-
free waters increase, so have placed the mention of areas of fog
during the overnight periods.

West Coast and Western interior...Clear skies, warm temperatures,
and dry conditions will persist across Western Alaska as the
upper level ridge remains overhead through early next week. Saint
Lawrence island is the exception where fog, at times below a mile,
was reported at both Gambell and Savoonga overnight. Webcam
imagery from Gambell shows that the low visibility in fog still
persists and thus have included the mention of fog in the forecast
for Saint Lawrence island this morning as fog is expected to
diminish. As the short wave moves west to east along the Gulf
Coast of Alaska Monday...it may spark off a few thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening over the Upper Kuskokwim Valley.

Eastern and Central Interior...Skies have cleared out overnight
across much of the eastern and central interior. There are still
some lingering clouds over the Upper Tanana Valley. Warm and dry
conditions are expected all weekend. Will see an increase in
shower activity Saturday evening over the Southeast Interior as
the upper level low moves south. A few isolated thunderstorms are
possible from Chicken south on Sunday as instability increases
over the area. Areal coverage for the possibility of thunderstorms
expands Monday to include all of the Alaska Range from McGrath
east to the ALCAN border as the shortwave moves west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue into
early next week. On Sunday conditions could approach
meteorological red flag criteria in zone 215; however, at this
point there is not enough confidence to issue any fire weather
products. No thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday.
There is the potential for some isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
in the far southeastern corner of the forecast area. On Monday the
coverage area for the isolated thunderstorms expands to include
all of the Alaska Range.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Do not anticipate any issues. With the warmer
temperatures, expect to see some snowmelt allowing for increased
runoff over the weekend with potential rises in the rivers.
However, there is no concerns at this point even with the
increased runoff.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

$$

LTH MAY 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272324 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather in forecast for the holiday weekend as
high pressure dominating Western and Northern Alaska. Models are
fairly consistent with upper level features through next 84 hours
before slowly diverging. However, even when the diverging between
the GFS and ECMWF it is more of a timing difference and strength
of the upper level features. Basically can expect warmer and drier
weather over majority of Alaska as the upper level high pressure
system moves from the Yukon Delta towards the Seward Peninsula by
Saturday. The high will move towards Cape Lisburne by Monday as
the upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska along with weak
easterly wave from Canada moves across southern Alaska pushing the
high pressure northward. Resulting in isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity for areas south of the Fortymile country
toward Northway on Sunday and Monday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Easterly winds continue across the
the Arctic coastline through Sunday as the surface high pressure
north nearly 200 NM northeast of Barrow will slowly shift towards
Banks Island by Monday. Although easterly winds will increase in
strength, it will still remain below small craft or brisk wind
criteria through Saturday evening. Then easterly winds will become
easterly 20 to 35 mph Saturday night through Sunday night. With
warming temperatures there will also be more breaking off of
shorefast ice from areas Cape Lisburne and Point Lay to Icy Cape.
In terms of fog, this open water could contribute more to the low
stratus ceilings and poor visibility that may develop along Arctic
coast. In general, do not anticipate widespread dense fog but
conditions could fluctuate around various location along the
coast.

West Coast and Western Interior: Dry and warm conditions on tap
for the weekend with temperatures soaring into 70s on Seward
Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Majority of West Coast and Western
Interior have cleared in sky cover, but there is lingering cloud
cover on the western side of the surface high pressure located
over the Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior: Still some lingering cloud cover
across the Interior. However, this should clear out overnight.
Expect temperatures to be warmer over the weekend along with
drying trend. An upper level low develops over the Yukon Canada and
drops south into Eastern Alaska so there will be some isolated
shower activity beginning Saturday afternoon. There will also be
increased northerly winds extending from the Fortymile country to
the Alaskan Range on Saturday evening as this upper level features
moves west. The instability increases Sunday and Monday with
potential for isolated thunderstorms as well for areas from
Chicken south to Northway and expanding to include Alaska Range on
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue into
early next week. On Sunday conditions could approach
meteorological red flag criteria in zone 215; however, at this
point there is not enough confidence to issue any fire weather
products. No thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday.
There is the potential for some isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
in the far southeastern corner of the forecast area. On Monday the
coverage area for the isolated thunderstorms expands to include
all of the Alaska Range. &&

.HYDROLOGY...Do not anticipate any issues. With the warmer
temperatures, expect to see some snowmelt allowing for increased
runoff over the weekend with potential rises in the rivers.
However, there is no concerns at this point even with the
increased runoff.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MAK MAY 16




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