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000
FXAK67 PAJK 251439
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE STORM FORCE LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS MOVED ONSHORE, A RIDGE
IS BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE IN ITS WAKE. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGHING ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE HAS STRENGTHENED THE GRADIENT TO AROUND -5 MB
BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE CANAL. JUNEAU MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY EARLY OWING TO THE SAME PHENOMENON, BUT THE
SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY NOT YIELD THE
GREATEST SETUP FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE, HAVE JUST 15 TO
25 MPH DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HERE. SITKA DEFINITELY SAW A
QUICK ACCELERATION OF STRONG WEST WINDS...GUSTING TO 45 MPH...WITH
THE SECOND WRAP OF THE STORM, BUT HAS SINCE RELAXED TO 10 TO 20
MPH AT MOST. WRANGELL`S AND CAPE DECISION`S WINDS INDICATE THAT
THERE ARE STILL SOME SOLID SOUTHWESTERLIES PUSHING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH EVEN PETERSBURG FEELING A BIT BREEZY FOR
THEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO STARTED THINGS OFF A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN SOME OF THE AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS FOR ZONES 27/28 EARLIER TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA. SKAGWAY THOUGH WILL GUST TO 45 MPH THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. 700 MB
WINDS ARE JUST TOO STRONG TO RELAX COMPLETELY. IN ADDITION MOS
GUIDANCE KEEPING THINGS FRISKY OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT, THINGS
COULD FALL FLAT CALM PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE OTHER STORY IS THE COOLING CONDITIONS PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE
WEST. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH AND CHILLY ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A MIX OF SNOW IN YAKUTAT TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
SHOWERS. A LITTLE SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN NEAR HAINES/SKAGWAY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. BUT GIVEN SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLIES, THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING IS PROBABLY NOT GREAT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY AFTER A VORTICITY LOBE PASSES
OVER THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FROM NORTH
OF SITKA TO JUNEAU OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE VERY MINOR. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB TO 2500 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY, BUT THEN FALL TO 1000 TO 1500
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL IN TURN FALL TO SEA LEVEL
OVERNIGHT...NORTH OF SITKA/ANGOON. HYDER SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN
AS IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO FALL HERE WITHOUT A
GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AND INTO
THE 20S FOR LYNN CANAL AND YAKUTAT. THE SOUTH WILL FALL INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY PROBABLY WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH THROUGH THE DAY,
AND MAY BEGIN TO CHILL A LITTLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

USED ARW, NMM, ECMWF, AND NAM FOR SMALL UPDATES. CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST GOOD.


.LONG TERM...RESIDUAL TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TO HOLD ON BUT WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK
LOW WILL BE PULLING NORTH MONDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE OVER HECATE
STRAIT AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
WILL KEEP A LITTLE LITE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK HOWEVER WILL MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE FEATURE UNDER
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL POSITION ALONG ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE. DO EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TO PUSH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
LATE TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS TO CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE FRONT
HEADED NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...RETURNING WARMER
AIR TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW STAYS WEST OF 150 WEST.

LONG TERM MODELS FEATURES SUGGESTING A FAIRLY ORGANIZED LOW TO
DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE GULF
HEADED TO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS WHEN WE GET IT LATER TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY
ON... WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR LATER PERIODS.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-031.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-032>036-041>043-051-
     052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 251439
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE STORM FORCE LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS MOVED ONSHORE, A RIDGE
IS BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE IN ITS WAKE. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGHING ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE HAS STRENGTHENED THE GRADIENT TO AROUND -5 MB
BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE CANAL. JUNEAU MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY EARLY OWING TO THE SAME PHENOMENON, BUT THE
SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY NOT YIELD THE
GREATEST SETUP FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE, HAVE JUST 15 TO
25 MPH DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HERE. SITKA DEFINITELY SAW A
QUICK ACCELERATION OF STRONG WEST WINDS...GUSTING TO 45 MPH...WITH
THE SECOND WRAP OF THE STORM, BUT HAS SINCE RELAXED TO 10 TO 20
MPH AT MOST. WRANGELL`S AND CAPE DECISION`S WINDS INDICATE THAT
THERE ARE STILL SOME SOLID SOUTHWESTERLIES PUSHING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH EVEN PETERSBURG FEELING A BIT BREEZY FOR
THEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO STARTED THINGS OFF A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN SOME OF THE AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS FOR ZONES 27/28 EARLIER TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA. SKAGWAY THOUGH WILL GUST TO 45 MPH THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. 700 MB
WINDS ARE JUST TOO STRONG TO RELAX COMPLETELY. IN ADDITION MOS
GUIDANCE KEEPING THINGS FRISKY OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT, THINGS
COULD FALL FLAT CALM PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE OTHER STORY IS THE COOLING CONDITIONS PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE
WEST. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH AND CHILLY ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A MIX OF SNOW IN YAKUTAT TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
SHOWERS. A LITTLE SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN NEAR HAINES/SKAGWAY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. BUT GIVEN SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLIES, THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING IS PROBABLY NOT GREAT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY AFTER A VORTICITY LOBE PASSES
OVER THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FROM NORTH
OF SITKA TO JUNEAU OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE VERY MINOR. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB TO 2500 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY, BUT THEN FALL TO 1000 TO 1500
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL IN TURN FALL TO SEA LEVEL
OVERNIGHT...NORTH OF SITKA/ANGOON. HYDER SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN
AS IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO FALL HERE WITHOUT A
GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AND INTO
THE 20S FOR LYNN CANAL AND YAKUTAT. THE SOUTH WILL FALL INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY PROBABLY WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH THROUGH THE DAY,
AND MAY BEGIN TO CHILL A LITTLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

USED ARW, NMM, ECMWF, AND NAM FOR SMALL UPDATES. CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST GOOD.


.LONG TERM...RESIDUAL TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TO HOLD ON BUT WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK
LOW WILL BE PULLING NORTH MONDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE OVER HECATE
STRAIT AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
WILL KEEP A LITTLE LITE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK HOWEVER WILL MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE FEATURE UNDER
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL POSITION ALONG ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE. DO EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TO PUSH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
LATE TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS TO CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE FRONT
HEADED NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...RETURNING WARMER
AIR TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW STAYS WEST OF 150 WEST.

LONG TERM MODELS FEATURES SUGGESTING A FAIRLY ORGANIZED LOW TO
DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE GULF
HEADED TO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS WHEN WE GET IT LATER TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY
ON... WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR LATER PERIODS.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-031.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-032>036-041>043-051-
     052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







  [top]

000
FXAK68 PAFC 251434
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
534 AM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND HAS BEEN DIVIDED INTO A COUPLE DIFFERENT
TROUGH AXIS. THE FIRST IS PROPAGATING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND REPRESENTS MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THIS LONGWAVE. BEHIND THE
WAVE...DRYING IS OCCURRING OVER THE COOK INLET REGION WITH SOME
LOW/MID CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST THE CHUGACH. OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
CRANKING IN WHITTIER AND SEWARD AS ARCTIC AIR FLOWS THROUGH THE
CHUGACH. SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE
SETTLING IN OVER COOK INLET...EXAGGERATED WHERE CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOW FAR TEMPERATURES
FALL BEFORE SUNRISE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING OVER
THE AREA.

FURTHER OUT WEST...A LARGE MATURE LOW SPINS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WITH A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CHAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
MAKING MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS RIDGING TO ITS NORTH IS MAKING A
NEAR REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA. OUTFLOW WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEIGHT
FIELD THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN LOW CENTER POSITIONS
STILL EXIST AS WELL AS TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMATION DIFFERENCES BUT
FOR THE MOST PART GUIDANCE SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL SOLUTION. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE IN FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE BERING SEA
AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THEN
EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
DIMINISH TODAY LEADING TO CONTINUED COLDER CONDITIONS. OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND ARCTIC AIR IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
MAINLAND. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL HAVE LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGER THE LONGEST TODAY BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURE WILL PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
DRY...CLEAR...AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NOW THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SET UP OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER MUCH TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND OR CLOUDCOVER EXPECTED. THIS WILL CHANGE
TONIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE BERING...INCREASING THE OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE ON MONDAY AS WINDS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE. THIS INCREASING CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE IN AS A RESULT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE AKPEN. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE WESTERN BRISTOL BAY FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WAVE HAS TO POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE DILLINGHAM AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DUE TO SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THE SNOW WILL REACH AND STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ITS TOO SOON TO SAY EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
COULD FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS...BECOMING SNOW AS IT SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AKPEN BY THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE BERING AND TOWARDS THE PRIBILOFS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND MUCH
LIGHTER WITH THE SNOWFALL AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS BY MONDAY
MORNING. IT IS FOR THIS REASON...AND BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
CURRENT TRANSPORTABLE SNOW AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WATERS IN THE
BERING THAT THE BLIZZARD WATCH THERE WAS CANCELLED THIS MORNING.
THERE STILL WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS KICK UP
WHATEVER DOES FALL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH EAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AS A COMPLEX
LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TRACKS FURTHER EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MULTIPLE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL TRACK INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE TILTED
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA BY TUESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN SIBERIAN REGION. TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SET UP OVER THE WESTERN BERING...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN OVER
THE BERING AND CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AND TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155.
MARINE....GALE WARNING 129 130 131 160 165 170 175 177 179 180
          HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 127 129 130 131 138 139 140 141
            160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP


  [top]

000
FXAK69 PAFG 251306
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
406 AM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT....
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THE THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK THEN CUT-OFF OVER THE NE PACIFIC AT
THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA.
THIS MEANS THAT THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES NOW SETTLING OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SOME WARMING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM BARTER ISLAND TO DENALI WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 3PM SUN...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE ALCAN
BORDER BY MON MORNING. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE OCCURING EAST OF
THE TROUGH...AND WILL CLEAR WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND TROUGH ALOFT NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO BARROW NE BY
3AM MON...TO UMIAT TO BARTER ISLAND NE BY 3PM MON...AND THEN MOVE
EAST. EXPECT EVEN COLDER AIR AND SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS.

850 MB...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -20C IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO -28C OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO -30C OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
MON WILL SEE SLIGHT WARMING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST BUT EXPECT NO
WARMING AT THE SURFACE DUE TO CLEAR CONDITIONS.

SURFACE...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM MENTASTA PASS TO MAYO WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY. A 990 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE ARCTIC FRONT CAUSING SNOW IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. EXPECT ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY EAST OF ARCTIC
VILLAGE TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROUGH ALOFT.

A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BUILDING EAST OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH MON. THIS IS CAUSING A STRONG GRADIENT
JUST NW OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND N WINDS GUSTING 40 MPH AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH IN THE SE INTERIOR. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY
AND DROP OF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGHER PRESSURE WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 30 BELOW ALONG THE COAST AND 30 TO 50 BELOW IN INLAND VALLEYS.

A 1001 MB LOW 400 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTH
OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 3AM MON AND TO 200 NM EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY 3AM TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-40 MPH
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF BARROW THROUGH MON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN ZONE 204. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD WINDS CHILLS AND IN
ZONES 203 AND 204 THROUGH TUE AND COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
SNOW TO ZONE 204. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL ADV THROUGH MON WITH
POSSIBLE GROUND BLIZZARD ZONE 204 MON PM THROUGH TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM SUN...THEN THE NAM WEAKENS
THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE GFS AND
ECMF. FAVOR THE GFS AS DYNAMICS WOULD NOT SUPPORT RAPID WEAKENING
OF THAT LOW AS SHOWN BY THE NAM SOLUTION.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ204.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB JAN 15




000
FXAK67 PAJK 250043
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE AS IT MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS MEASURED SO
FAR HAVE BEEN A GUST OF 61KT OUT OF THE EAST AT CAPE DECISION.
EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS ON LAND TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST OF BARANOF, KUIU, POW, AND ANNETTE ISLANDS. HAVE THESE
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH HEADLINED IN THE TEXT FORECAST. THE
LOW CENTER WILL CROSS OVER BARANOF ISLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A LULL IN
THE WINDS THEN A SHARP SHIFT TO THE SW. THE W-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CANADA WITH ZONAL W TO SW FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SEE INCREASING NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEAR. THEN THOSE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW PASSES...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
INNER CHANNELS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

THIS LOW IS BRINGING WITH IT WARM AIR ALOFT...AS THE LAST SEVERAL
HAVE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND ALL
LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...WITH EXCEPTION OF WHITE PASS
TONIGHT WHICH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. TOMORROW WILL BE
A DIFFERENT STORY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
WITH CAA FROM THE WEST. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER JUNEAU FALL FROM
ABOUT -2C TO -6C AND AS COLD AS -10C OVER YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A TRANSITION FROM TONIGHTS HEAVY STRATIFORM
RAIN TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS TO HAVE SNOW MIXED IN FROM ABOUT THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION HOWEVER AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY SNOW SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT.

THIS IS A QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM WHICH MAKES THE DETAILS AND TIMING
DIFFICULT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
THE LOW CENTER PATH LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
OVERALL IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT LOWER ON THE DETAILS AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...PRECIP IS IN RETREATING PHASE AND WINDS WEAKENING AS
GRADIENTS SLACKEN TOMORROW NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH DRYING
LOW LEVELS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. A NEW WEAK LOW
SKIRTS THE SOUTH END EARLY TUES WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN...BUT
THE NEW SCENARIO AFFECTED GRADIENTS AND WINDS AND THUS HAD TO
UPDATE FROM 18Z MONDAY ONWARDS AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THIS
MOSTLY OUT OF THE PICTURE. UTILIZED MOSTLY EC/GEM FIELDS FOR THE
DYNAMIC UPDATES AND INCORPORATED SOME GFS FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC
UPDATES. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF THROUGH AT LEAST WED. COLDEST AIR WILL OF COURSE
AFFECT THE SKAGWAY AREA THE MOST BUT ALL OF THE PANHANDLE COOLS
SIGNIFICANTLY. ON TUES NIGHT THE NEXT WEAK LOW AND FRONT MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE CURRENT SNOW LINE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOVING NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS AT SEA LEVEL DURING
TUES-WED. TENTATIVELY LOOKS LIKE ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE AND
POSSIBLY JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS/YAK WILL HAVE SNOW POTENTIAL BY LATE WED.
THURS MARKS SIGNIFICANT WARMING BUT MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK ON
THIS FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE. ALL 3 OF THE MAJOR EXTENDED MODELS
ADVERTISE A STRONG NEW GULF LOW BY FRIDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERN LYNN GALE/SCA (BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH)
APPEARS LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL ABOUT 09Z MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER
AREAS WILL HAVE VERY WEAK GRADIENTS BY THEN. STARTING ABOUT 00Z
TUESDAY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD
WITH THE WEAK LOW/FRONT; THEN 310 COULD REACH GALE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS NEW LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH ENTERS THE
PICTURE. GALES COULD REACH THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS BY 06Z
WED. MEANWHILE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN AT ABOUT 00Z TUES ON THE NORTH
END AND STEADILY INCREASE FROM THAT POINT. THROUGH AT LEAST THURS
THE STORY WILL BE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE SLOWLY
APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THE ENTRENCHED CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN BC AND THE YUKON. PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WATER AND STRONG NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
OUTFLOW IN THE PREFERRED REGIONS INCLUDING THE JUNEAU AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MOSTLY WHAT THE WPC GRIDS PORTEND.

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WAS ABOVE AVERAGE SO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...NOTWITHSTANDING THE OUTLIER NAM DYNAMIC FIELDS EARLY ON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ023-027.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031-033-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-032-034-051-052.

&&

$$

FERRIN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 250043
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE AS IT MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS MEASURED SO
FAR HAVE BEEN A GUST OF 61KT OUT OF THE EAST AT CAPE DECISION.
EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS ON LAND TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST OF BARANOF, KUIU, POW, AND ANNETTE ISLANDS. HAVE THESE
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH HEADLINED IN THE TEXT FORECAST. THE
LOW CENTER WILL CROSS OVER BARANOF ISLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A LULL IN
THE WINDS THEN A SHARP SHIFT TO THE SW. THE W-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CANADA WITH ZONAL W TO SW FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SEE INCREASING NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEAR. THEN THOSE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW PASSES...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
INNER CHANNELS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

THIS LOW IS BRINGING WITH IT WARM AIR ALOFT...AS THE LAST SEVERAL
HAVE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND ALL
LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...WITH EXCEPTION OF WHITE PASS
TONIGHT WHICH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. TOMORROW WILL BE
A DIFFERENT STORY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
WITH CAA FROM THE WEST. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER JUNEAU FALL FROM
ABOUT -2C TO -6C AND AS COLD AS -10C OVER YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A TRANSITION FROM TONIGHTS HEAVY STRATIFORM
RAIN TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS TO HAVE SNOW MIXED IN FROM ABOUT THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION HOWEVER AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY SNOW SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT.

THIS IS A QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM WHICH MAKES THE DETAILS AND TIMING
DIFFICULT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
THE LOW CENTER PATH LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
OVERALL IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT LOWER ON THE DETAILS AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...PRECIP IS IN RETREATING PHASE AND WINDS WEAKENING AS
GRADIENTS SLACKEN TOMORROW NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH DRYING
LOW LEVELS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. A NEW WEAK LOW
SKIRTS THE SOUTH END EARLY TUES WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN...BUT
THE NEW SCENARIO AFFECTED GRADIENTS AND WINDS AND THUS HAD TO
UPDATE FROM 18Z MONDAY ONWARDS AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THIS
MOSTLY OUT OF THE PICTURE. UTILIZED MOSTLY EC/GEM FIELDS FOR THE
DYNAMIC UPDATES AND INCORPORATED SOME GFS FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC
UPDATES. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF THROUGH AT LEAST WED. COLDEST AIR WILL OF COURSE
AFFECT THE SKAGWAY AREA THE MOST BUT ALL OF THE PANHANDLE COOLS
SIGNIFICANTLY. ON TUES NIGHT THE NEXT WEAK LOW AND FRONT MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE CURRENT SNOW LINE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOVING NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS AT SEA LEVEL DURING
TUES-WED. TENTATIVELY LOOKS LIKE ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE AND
POSSIBLY JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS/YAK WILL HAVE SNOW POTENTIAL BY LATE WED.
THURS MARKS SIGNIFICANT WARMING BUT MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK ON
THIS FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE. ALL 3 OF THE MAJOR EXTENDED MODELS
ADVERTISE A STRONG NEW GULF LOW BY FRIDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERN LYNN GALE/SCA (BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH)
APPEARS LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL ABOUT 09Z MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER
AREAS WILL HAVE VERY WEAK GRADIENTS BY THEN. STARTING ABOUT 00Z
TUESDAY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD
WITH THE WEAK LOW/FRONT; THEN 310 COULD REACH GALE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS NEW LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH ENTERS THE
PICTURE. GALES COULD REACH THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS BY 06Z
WED. MEANWHILE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN AT ABOUT 00Z TUES ON THE NORTH
END AND STEADILY INCREASE FROM THAT POINT. THROUGH AT LEAST THURS
THE STORY WILL BE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE SLOWLY
APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THE ENTRENCHED CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN BC AND THE YUKON. PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WATER AND STRONG NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
OUTFLOW IN THE PREFERRED REGIONS INCLUDING THE JUNEAU AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MOSTLY WHAT THE WPC GRIDS PORTEND.

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WAS ABOVE AVERAGE SO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...NOTWITHSTANDING THE OUTLIER NAM DYNAMIC FIELDS EARLY ON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ023-027.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031-033-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-032-034-051-052.

&&

$$

FERRIN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK68 PAFC 250010
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE TROUGH IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A
NEGATIVE TILT...AS RISING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE CAUSE
THE TROUGH TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS ENDED FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU.
RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME VERY LOW LEVEL LIFT...RESULTING IN
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION...WITH MARGINALLY LIGHTER PRECIP OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. OF SPECIAL NOTE...PRECIPITATION STARTED THE
MORNING WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW. THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED COOL THE COLUMN AND
CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THEREFORE...NOW EXPECT VALDEZ TO SEE A
GOOD DUMP OF SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM.

BEHIND THE TROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS SETTLED INTO A TRUE ARCTIC
ARM MASS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER. THE COLD SPOTTY THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE ANIAK WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. UPSTREAM OF THIS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE
BERING SEA BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A
MATURE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS TRACKING EASTWARD PUSHING
AN OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE RIGHT NOW IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF DEALING WITH KEY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THINGS WIND
DOWN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC WHERE MINOR DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A
TROUGH PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
FOCUSED OUT AHEAD OF A WARM OCCLUSION. AS THIS FRONT WEAKENS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL HELP
FOCUS PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON STRENGTH OR
PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES. WITH A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERELY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH...THOUGH IT
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DETAILS OUT WEST AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FROM
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THE PRIMARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
AN UPPER LOW WHICH FORMS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS COMBINED WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THESE SAME
AREAS. MEANWHILE...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE SEWARD/RESURRECTION BAY AND
WHITTIER/PASSAGE CANAL AREAS WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE ENTIRE WINTER MOVING IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS SETTLES IN. WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE TO FALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY COME
TO AN END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OF NOTE...WEST
ANCHORAGE (WHERE THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION IS LOCATED) IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE FIRST SUB- ZERO TEMPERATURES SINCE
DECEMBER 2013.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO END
TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN. THUS...TONIGHT
WILL BE COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY GRADUAL MODERATION WILL
THEN BEGIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE TOWARD MOVING PRECIP INTO BRISTOL BAY FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL SOMETIME ON MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN OUT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT...SO WHENEVER SNOW DOES MOVE IN
THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SHORT-WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL BERING WILL FLATTEN
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH. THUS...DON`T EXPECT ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP TO SURVIVE BEYOND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND SURFACE STORM
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH PRECIP AND WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT. THEREFORE...IF AND WHEN STEADY
SNOW REACHES THE PRIBILOFS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WILL
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH BEGINNING MONDAY WHEN MOST MODELS INDICATE
A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STEADY SNOWFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH AN
AMPLIFIED POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA BY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN SIBERIAN REGION.
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA AREA...THERE IS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTLINE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
RIDGES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AREA WILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO KODIAK ISLAND. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND THE
COASTLINES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
GULF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 195. SNOW ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 129 130 131 170 179.
         HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 131 138
            139 140 141 150 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...PD



000
FXAK68 PAFC 250010
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE TROUGH IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A
NEGATIVE TILT...AS RISING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE CAUSE
THE TROUGH TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS ENDED FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU.
RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME VERY LOW LEVEL LIFT...RESULTING IN
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION...WITH MARGINALLY LIGHTER PRECIP OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. OF SPECIAL NOTE...PRECIPITATION STARTED THE
MORNING WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW. THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED COOL THE COLUMN AND
CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THEREFORE...NOW EXPECT VALDEZ TO SEE A
GOOD DUMP OF SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM.

BEHIND THE TROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS SETTLED INTO A TRUE ARCTIC
ARM MASS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER. THE COLD SPOTTY THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE ANIAK WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. UPSTREAM OF THIS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE
BERING SEA BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A
MATURE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS TRACKING EASTWARD PUSHING
AN OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE RIGHT NOW IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF DEALING WITH KEY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THINGS WIND
DOWN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC WHERE MINOR DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A
TROUGH PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
FOCUSED OUT AHEAD OF A WARM OCCLUSION. AS THIS FRONT WEAKENS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL HELP
FOCUS PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON STRENGTH OR
PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES. WITH A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERELY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH...THOUGH IT
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DETAILS OUT WEST AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FROM
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THE PRIMARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
AN UPPER LOW WHICH FORMS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS COMBINED WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THESE SAME
AREAS. MEANWHILE...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE SEWARD/RESURRECTION BAY AND
WHITTIER/PASSAGE CANAL AREAS WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE ENTIRE WINTER MOVING IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS SETTLES IN. WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE TO FALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY COME
TO AN END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OF NOTE...WEST
ANCHORAGE (WHERE THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION IS LOCATED) IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE FIRST SUB- ZERO TEMPERATURES SINCE
DECEMBER 2013.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO END
TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN. THUS...TONIGHT
WILL BE COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY GRADUAL MODERATION WILL
THEN BEGIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE TOWARD MOVING PRECIP INTO BRISTOL BAY FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL SOMETIME ON MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN OUT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT...SO WHENEVER SNOW DOES MOVE IN
THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SHORT-WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL BERING WILL FLATTEN
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH. THUS...DON`T EXPECT ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP TO SURVIVE BEYOND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND SURFACE STORM
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH PRECIP AND WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT. THEREFORE...IF AND WHEN STEADY
SNOW REACHES THE PRIBILOFS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WILL
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH BEGINNING MONDAY WHEN MOST MODELS INDICATE
A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STEADY SNOWFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH AN
AMPLIFIED POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA BY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN SIBERIAN REGION.
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA AREA...THERE IS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTLINE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
RIDGES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AREA WILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO KODIAK ISLAND. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND THE
COASTLINES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
GULF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 195. SNOW ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 129 130 131 170 179.
         HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 131 138
            139 140 141 150 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...PD




000
FXAK69 PAFG 242253
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
153 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THOUGH THE MIDTERM AS WELL. PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE
12Z NAM12 AND 12Z GFS BASED ON VERIFICATION ON THE 18Z ANALYSIS.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS PLACED THE CLEARING LINE JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO WEST OF NENANA AS DEPICTED
ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

CENTRAL INTERIOR...CLEARING LINE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS ATTM WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
BELOW. EXPECT THE CLEARING LINE TO RETREAT TO THE WEST TO NEAR
NENANA AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES TO THE
WEST AROUND A LOW CURRENTLY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT. ONGOING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BUT IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
EXTENDED THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 223 AND 224. AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
WHILE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
IN ZONES 223 AND 224. EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST OF
FAIRBANKS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY BUT ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS. AS THE SNOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CLEARINGS SKIES
WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET IN FAIRBANKS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH 40 BELOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER 40
BELOW OR COLDER MORNING POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN A SLOW
WARM UP AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LIFTS TO NORTHEAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 40S BELOW. JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST AND SEWARD PENINSULA TO WARRANT WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. EXPECT COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TO CONTINUE
WINDCHILL VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE WIND AND COLD IS COMBINING FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE. THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF
POINT THOMPSON CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 15 MPH AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP
SOME TONIGHT LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE WILL FLIRT WITH
WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.
&&

$$

CCC JAN 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 242253
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
153 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THOUGH THE MIDTERM AS WELL. PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE
12Z NAM12 AND 12Z GFS BASED ON VERIFICATION ON THE 18Z ANALYSIS.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS PLACED THE CLEARING LINE JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO WEST OF NENANA AS DEPICTED
ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

CENTRAL INTERIOR...CLEARING LINE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS ATTM WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
BELOW. EXPECT THE CLEARING LINE TO RETREAT TO THE WEST TO NEAR
NENANA AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES TO THE
WEST AROUND A LOW CURRENTLY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT. ONGOING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BUT IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
EXTENDED THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 223 AND 224. AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
WHILE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
IN ZONES 223 AND 224. EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST OF
FAIRBANKS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY BUT ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS. AS THE SNOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CLEARINGS SKIES
WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET IN FAIRBANKS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH 40 BELOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER 40
BELOW OR COLDER MORNING POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN A SLOW
WARM UP AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LIFTS TO NORTHEAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 40S BELOW. JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST AND SEWARD PENINSULA TO WARRANT WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. EXPECT COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TO CONTINUE
WINDCHILL VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE WIND AND COLD IS COMBINING FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE. THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF
POINT THOMPSON CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 15 MPH AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP
SOME TONIGHT LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE WILL FLIRT WITH
WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.
&&

$$

CCC JAN 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 242253
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
153 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THOUGH THE MIDTERM AS WELL. PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE
12Z NAM12 AND 12Z GFS BASED ON VERIFICATION ON THE 18Z ANALYSIS.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS PLACED THE CLEARING LINE JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO WEST OF NENANA AS DEPICTED
ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

CENTRAL INTERIOR...CLEARING LINE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS ATTM WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
BELOW. EXPECT THE CLEARING LINE TO RETREAT TO THE WEST TO NEAR
NENANA AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES TO THE
WEST AROUND A LOW CURRENTLY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT. ONGOING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BUT IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
EXTENDED THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 223 AND 224. AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
WHILE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
IN ZONES 223 AND 224. EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST OF
FAIRBANKS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY BUT ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS. AS THE SNOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CLEARINGS SKIES
WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET IN FAIRBANKS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH 40 BELOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER 40
BELOW OR COLDER MORNING POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN A SLOW
WARM UP AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LIFTS TO NORTHEAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 40S BELOW. JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST AND SEWARD PENINSULA TO WARRANT WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. EXPECT COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TO CONTINUE
WINDCHILL VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE WIND AND COLD IS COMBINING FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE. THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF
POINT THOMPSON CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 15 MPH AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP
SOME TONIGHT LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE WILL FLIRT WITH
WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.
&&

$$

CCC JAN 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 242253
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
153 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THOUGH THE MIDTERM AS WELL. PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE
12Z NAM12 AND 12Z GFS BASED ON VERIFICATION ON THE 18Z ANALYSIS.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS PLACED THE CLEARING LINE JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO WEST OF NENANA AS DEPICTED
ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

CENTRAL INTERIOR...CLEARING LINE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
FAIRBANKS ATTM WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
BELOW. EXPECT THE CLEARING LINE TO RETREAT TO THE WEST TO NEAR
NENANA AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES TO THE
WEST AROUND A LOW CURRENTLY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT. ONGOING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BUT IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
EXTENDED THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 223 AND 224. AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
WHILE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
IN ZONES 223 AND 224. EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST OF
FAIRBANKS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY BUT ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS. AS THE SNOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CLEARINGS SKIES
WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET IN FAIRBANKS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH 40 BELOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER 40
BELOW OR COLDER MORNING POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN A SLOW
WARM UP AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LIFTS TO NORTHEAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 40S BELOW. JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST AND SEWARD PENINSULA TO WARRANT WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. EXPECT COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TO CONTINUE
WINDCHILL VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE WIND AND COLD IS COMBINING FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE. THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF
POINT THOMPSON CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 15 MPH AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP
SOME TONIGHT LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE WILL FLIRT WITH
WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.
&&

$$

CCC JAN 15



000
FXAK67 PAJK 241542
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
642 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RIDING A 175-KT JET RIVALING SPEEDS OF TALLADEGA, A
DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW THRUSTS ITSELF TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
ON THIS SATURDAY. THE LOW LIKELY DEEPENING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 975
AND 980 MB WILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL PACK AN ESPECIALLY HARD PUNCH AS IT
MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING...AIDED BY A 70-KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925
MB.

CONCERN IS ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BUOYS TO OUR SOUTH
ARE REPORTING PRESSURES OF 2 TO 4 MB LOWER THAN WHAT OUR BEST
MODELS ARE FORECASTING. IN ADDITION, THERE SEEMS TO BE A
NORTHWESTWARD CRAWL OF THE STORM`S TRACK WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
AS OF THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING, THERE WAS MORE OF A THINKING
THE SYSTEM WOULD JUMP ASHORE ALONG NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND, BUT NOW, IT APPEARS A LANDFALL NEAR SITKA OR POSSIBLY JUST
NORTH. THIS NOW INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SITKA AND BARANOF
ISLAND TO BE MORE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS THE LOW
JUMPS INLAND. IN ADDITION, AREAS FROM WRANGELL AND POINT BAKER
WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. GIVEN SUCH A TIGHT GRADIENT AS THE LOW MOVES
ASHORE, COUPLED WITH THE ESPECIALLY STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET, WE
RAISED CLARENCE STRAIT TO STORM THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. BUT WE NEED TO HEDGE:  IF THE LOW IS STRONGER WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE GREATER, BUT IF THE LOW IS FASTER, WINDS COULD BOTH
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT--A LITTLE EARLIER.
DO NOT BE FOOLED SHOULD WINDS NOT BE SO STRONG JUST AFTER NOON
DOWN SOUTH. THEY WILL COME.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA LATE TONIGHT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND TIGHTEN THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
GALES OVER STEPHENS AND LYNN CANAL. AS WELL AS THE STORM FORCE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW EARLIER IN THE EVENING OVER CLARENCE
STRAIT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL NOTABLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO JUNEAU
AND SKAGWAY.

A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH LATE.
FORTUNATELY, THIS SHOULD BE A QUICK MOVER AND WE SHOULD NOT NEED
TO DEAL WITH ANY OF THE HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES FROM RECENT DAYS. 24-
HOUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO TURN SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AROUND YAKUTAT. AND AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SNOW LEVELS MAY
DECREASE TO 2000 FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. BUT LOWER QPF SHOULD
KEEP SNOW TOTALS LOW...AROUND 3 INCHES TONIGHT.

SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN RELAXING IN THE MORNING AS A RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE IS WEAKENING AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
FLIPPING AROUND MIDDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND COULD
BRIEFLY SEE SOLID SMALL CRAFT IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING.

RELIED ON THE NAM, ECMWF, AND ARW FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS/PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
WINDS COULD BE A BIT EARLIER.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
AREA. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LAST NOT LAST LONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BREAK ON THURSDAY BUT THERE IS MORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SO THE CONFIDENCE LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BUILD
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION DRIFTS INTO CANADA. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS ALONG STRONG WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AND
SKAGWAY AREA. THE STRONG WINDS IN SKAGWAY WILL LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SMALL CRAFT TO GALES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY TO BE LIGHT FROM WHAT THE
AREA HAS BEEN SEEING. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN 25 KT IN NORTHERN LYNN.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND
MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT YAKUTAT MAY GET A FEW INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW WILL
GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER
20S OVER THE SOUTH TO THE MID TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE
SUN WILL COME OUT BY MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH STABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH TUESDAY AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN BUT THE NAM WAS THE COLDEST OUT OF ALL OF
THE MODELS.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031-033-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-032-034-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 241542
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
642 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RIDING A 175-KT JET RIVALING SPEEDS OF TALLADEGA, A
DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW THRUSTS ITSELF TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
ON THIS SATURDAY. THE LOW LIKELY DEEPENING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 975
AND 980 MB WILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL PACK AN ESPECIALLY HARD PUNCH AS IT
MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING...AIDED BY A 70-KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925
MB.

CONCERN IS ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BUOYS TO OUR SOUTH
ARE REPORTING PRESSURES OF 2 TO 4 MB LOWER THAN WHAT OUR BEST
MODELS ARE FORECASTING. IN ADDITION, THERE SEEMS TO BE A
NORTHWESTWARD CRAWL OF THE STORM`S TRACK WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
AS OF THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING, THERE WAS MORE OF A THINKING
THE SYSTEM WOULD JUMP ASHORE ALONG NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND, BUT NOW, IT APPEARS A LANDFALL NEAR SITKA OR POSSIBLY JUST
NORTH. THIS NOW INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SITKA AND BARANOF
ISLAND TO BE MORE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS THE LOW
JUMPS INLAND. IN ADDITION, AREAS FROM WRANGELL AND POINT BAKER
WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. GIVEN SUCH A TIGHT GRADIENT AS THE LOW MOVES
ASHORE, COUPLED WITH THE ESPECIALLY STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET, WE
RAISED CLARENCE STRAIT TO STORM THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. BUT WE NEED TO HEDGE:  IF THE LOW IS STRONGER WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE GREATER, BUT IF THE LOW IS FASTER, WINDS COULD BOTH
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT--A LITTLE EARLIER.
DO NOT BE FOOLED SHOULD WINDS NOT BE SO STRONG JUST AFTER NOON
DOWN SOUTH. THEY WILL COME.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA LATE TONIGHT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND TIGHTEN THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
GALES OVER STEPHENS AND LYNN CANAL. AS WELL AS THE STORM FORCE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW EARLIER IN THE EVENING OVER CLARENCE
STRAIT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL NOTABLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO JUNEAU
AND SKAGWAY.

A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH LATE.
FORTUNATELY, THIS SHOULD BE A QUICK MOVER AND WE SHOULD NOT NEED
TO DEAL WITH ANY OF THE HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES FROM RECENT DAYS. 24-
HOUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO TURN SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AROUND YAKUTAT. AND AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SNOW LEVELS MAY
DECREASE TO 2000 FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. BUT LOWER QPF SHOULD
KEEP SNOW TOTALS LOW...AROUND 3 INCHES TONIGHT.

SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN RELAXING IN THE MORNING AS A RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE IS WEAKENING AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
FLIPPING AROUND MIDDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND COULD
BRIEFLY SEE SOLID SMALL CRAFT IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING.

RELIED ON THE NAM, ECMWF, AND ARW FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS/PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
WINDS COULD BE A BIT EARLIER.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
AREA. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LAST NOT LAST LONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BREAK ON THURSDAY BUT THERE IS MORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SO THE CONFIDENCE LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BUILD
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION DRIFTS INTO CANADA. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS ALONG STRONG WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AND
SKAGWAY AREA. THE STRONG WINDS IN SKAGWAY WILL LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SMALL CRAFT TO GALES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY TO BE LIGHT FROM WHAT THE
AREA HAS BEEN SEEING. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN 25 KT IN NORTHERN LYNN.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND
MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT YAKUTAT MAY GET A FEW INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW WILL
GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER
20S OVER THE SOUTH TO THE MID TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE
SUN WILL COME OUT BY MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH STABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH TUESDAY AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN BUT THE NAM WAS THE COLDEST OUT OF ALL OF
THE MODELS.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031-033-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-032-034-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






000
FXAK67 PAJK 241542
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
642 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RIDING A 175-KT JET RIVALING SPEEDS OF TALLADEGA, A
DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW THRUSTS ITSELF TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
ON THIS SATURDAY. THE LOW LIKELY DEEPENING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 975
AND 980 MB WILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL PACK AN ESPECIALLY HARD PUNCH AS IT
MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING...AIDED BY A 70-KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925
MB.

CONCERN IS ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BUOYS TO OUR SOUTH
ARE REPORTING PRESSURES OF 2 TO 4 MB LOWER THAN WHAT OUR BEST
MODELS ARE FORECASTING. IN ADDITION, THERE SEEMS TO BE A
NORTHWESTWARD CRAWL OF THE STORM`S TRACK WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
AS OF THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING, THERE WAS MORE OF A THINKING
THE SYSTEM WOULD JUMP ASHORE ALONG NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND, BUT NOW, IT APPEARS A LANDFALL NEAR SITKA OR POSSIBLY JUST
NORTH. THIS NOW INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SITKA AND BARANOF
ISLAND TO BE MORE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS THE LOW
JUMPS INLAND. IN ADDITION, AREAS FROM WRANGELL AND POINT BAKER
WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. GIVEN SUCH A TIGHT GRADIENT AS THE LOW MOVES
ASHORE, COUPLED WITH THE ESPECIALLY STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET, WE
RAISED CLARENCE STRAIT TO STORM THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. BUT WE NEED TO HEDGE:  IF THE LOW IS STRONGER WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE GREATER, BUT IF THE LOW IS FASTER, WINDS COULD BOTH
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT--A LITTLE EARLIER.
DO NOT BE FOOLED SHOULD WINDS NOT BE SO STRONG JUST AFTER NOON
DOWN SOUTH. THEY WILL COME.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA LATE TONIGHT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND TIGHTEN THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
GALES OVER STEPHENS AND LYNN CANAL. AS WELL AS THE STORM FORCE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW EARLIER IN THE EVENING OVER CLARENCE
STRAIT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL NOTABLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO JUNEAU
AND SKAGWAY.

A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH LATE.
FORTUNATELY, THIS SHOULD BE A QUICK MOVER AND WE SHOULD NOT NEED
TO DEAL WITH ANY OF THE HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES FROM RECENT DAYS. 24-
HOUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO TURN SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AROUND YAKUTAT. AND AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SNOW LEVELS MAY
DECREASE TO 2000 FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. BUT LOWER QPF SHOULD
KEEP SNOW TOTALS LOW...AROUND 3 INCHES TONIGHT.

SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN RELAXING IN THE MORNING AS A RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE IS WEAKENING AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
FLIPPING AROUND MIDDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND COULD
BRIEFLY SEE SOLID SMALL CRAFT IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING.

RELIED ON THE NAM, ECMWF, AND ARW FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS/PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
WINDS COULD BE A BIT EARLIER.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
AREA. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LAST NOT LAST LONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BREAK ON THURSDAY BUT THERE IS MORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SO THE CONFIDENCE LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BUILD
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION DRIFTS INTO CANADA. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS ALONG STRONG WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AND
SKAGWAY AREA. THE STRONG WINDS IN SKAGWAY WILL LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SMALL CRAFT TO GALES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY TO BE LIGHT FROM WHAT THE
AREA HAS BEEN SEEING. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN 25 KT IN NORTHERN LYNN.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND
MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT YAKUTAT MAY GET A FEW INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW WILL
GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER
20S OVER THE SOUTH TO THE MID TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE
SUN WILL COME OUT BY MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH STABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH TUESDAY AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN BUT THE NAM WAS THE COLDEST OUT OF ALL OF
THE MODELS.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031-033-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-032-034-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 241542
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
642 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RIDING A 175-KT JET RIVALING SPEEDS OF TALLADEGA, A
DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW THRUSTS ITSELF TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
ON THIS SATURDAY. THE LOW LIKELY DEEPENING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 975
AND 980 MB WILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL PACK AN ESPECIALLY HARD PUNCH AS IT
MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING...AIDED BY A 70-KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925
MB.

CONCERN IS ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BUOYS TO OUR SOUTH
ARE REPORTING PRESSURES OF 2 TO 4 MB LOWER THAN WHAT OUR BEST
MODELS ARE FORECASTING. IN ADDITION, THERE SEEMS TO BE A
NORTHWESTWARD CRAWL OF THE STORM`S TRACK WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
AS OF THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING, THERE WAS MORE OF A THINKING
THE SYSTEM WOULD JUMP ASHORE ALONG NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND, BUT NOW, IT APPEARS A LANDFALL NEAR SITKA OR POSSIBLY JUST
NORTH. THIS NOW INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SITKA AND BARANOF
ISLAND TO BE MORE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS THE LOW
JUMPS INLAND. IN ADDITION, AREAS FROM WRANGELL AND POINT BAKER
WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. GIVEN SUCH A TIGHT GRADIENT AS THE LOW MOVES
ASHORE, COUPLED WITH THE ESPECIALLY STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET, WE
RAISED CLARENCE STRAIT TO STORM THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. BUT WE NEED TO HEDGE:  IF THE LOW IS STRONGER WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE GREATER, BUT IF THE LOW IS FASTER, WINDS COULD BOTH
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT--A LITTLE EARLIER.
DO NOT BE FOOLED SHOULD WINDS NOT BE SO STRONG JUST AFTER NOON
DOWN SOUTH. THEY WILL COME.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA LATE TONIGHT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND TIGHTEN THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
GALES OVER STEPHENS AND LYNN CANAL. AS WELL AS THE STORM FORCE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW EARLIER IN THE EVENING OVER CLARENCE
STRAIT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL NOTABLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO JUNEAU
AND SKAGWAY.

A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH LATE.
FORTUNATELY, THIS SHOULD BE A QUICK MOVER AND WE SHOULD NOT NEED
TO DEAL WITH ANY OF THE HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES FROM RECENT DAYS. 24-
HOUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO TURN SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AROUND YAKUTAT. AND AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SNOW LEVELS MAY
DECREASE TO 2000 FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. BUT LOWER QPF SHOULD
KEEP SNOW TOTALS LOW...AROUND 3 INCHES TONIGHT.

SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN RELAXING IN THE MORNING AS A RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE IS WEAKENING AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
FLIPPING AROUND MIDDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND COULD
BRIEFLY SEE SOLID SMALL CRAFT IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING.

RELIED ON THE NAM, ECMWF, AND ARW FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS/PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
WINDS COULD BE A BIT EARLIER.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
AREA. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LAST NOT LAST LONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BREAK ON THURSDAY BUT THERE IS MORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SO THE CONFIDENCE LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BUILD
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION DRIFTS INTO CANADA. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS ALONG STRONG WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AND
SKAGWAY AREA. THE STRONG WINDS IN SKAGWAY WILL LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SMALL CRAFT TO GALES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY TO BE LIGHT FROM WHAT THE
AREA HAS BEEN SEEING. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN 25 KT IN NORTHERN LYNN.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND
MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT YAKUTAT MAY GET A FEW INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW WILL
GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER
20S OVER THE SOUTH TO THE MID TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE
SUN WILL COME OUT BY MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH STABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH TUESDAY AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN BUT THE NAM WAS THE COLDEST OUT OF ALL OF
THE MODELS.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031-033-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-032-034-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU






000
FXAK68 PAFC 241417
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD OVER COOK INLET. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMS FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS RANGING FROM SNOW AMOUNTS OF EPIC PROPORTIONS TO VERY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN WHISKING THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE EAST DESPITE MOST OF THE COOK INLET AREA
REMAINING UNDER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONSENSUS SAYS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MIGRATE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE GULF AND JOIN WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AS WELL AS COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
THE THREAT FOR SNOW TODAY WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE
CHUGACH/TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES SOME MOISTURE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST GULF COAST WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE
COPPER BASIN WHICH WILL GET BOTH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVERHEAD. SUNDAY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD OUTFLOW
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON IN MOST AREAS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
OF THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST INTO THE WESTERN CAPES...CREATING VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WARM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ALEUTIAN FRONT APPROACHES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOFS INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY
THIS EVENING...BRINGING RAIN/SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND MONDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH
EASTWARD (OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MULTIPLE
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA. OVER THE BERING...A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER RIDGE DRIVES A COLDER AIR MASS
SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BERING WILL MIX WITH WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AS
THESE TO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC TRACKS EASTWARD...COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS DURING THIS TIME...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE
WARMER SEA SURFACE CAN PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THIS COLDER AIR
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 111 141.
MARINE...GALES 130 131 150
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 131 138 150 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP




000
FXAK68 PAFC 241417
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD OVER COOK INLET. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMS FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS RANGING FROM SNOW AMOUNTS OF EPIC PROPORTIONS TO VERY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN WHISKING THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE EAST DESPITE MOST OF THE COOK INLET AREA
REMAINING UNDER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONSENSUS SAYS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MIGRATE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE GULF AND JOIN WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AS WELL AS COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
THE THREAT FOR SNOW TODAY WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE
CHUGACH/TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES SOME MOISTURE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST GULF COAST WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE
COPPER BASIN WHICH WILL GET BOTH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVERHEAD. SUNDAY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD OUTFLOW
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON IN MOST AREAS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
OF THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST INTO THE WESTERN CAPES...CREATING VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WARM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ALEUTIAN FRONT APPROACHES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOFS INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY
THIS EVENING...BRINGING RAIN/SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND MONDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH
EASTWARD (OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MULTIPLE
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA. OVER THE BERING...A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER RIDGE DRIVES A COLDER AIR MASS
SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BERING WILL MIX WITH WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AS
THESE TO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC TRACKS EASTWARD...COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS DURING THIS TIME...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE
WARMER SEA SURFACE CAN PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THIS COLDER AIR
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 111 141.
MARINE...GALES 130 131 150
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 131 138 150 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP



000
FXAK69 PAFG 241329
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
429 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...


MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE SURFACE LOW.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS
WELL. VERY COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

EASTERN INTERIOR..SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM FAIRBANKS WEST THIS
MORNING BUT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING STILL IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 226 AS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 12
TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. ONCE THE INTERIOR CLEARS OUT TEMPS WILL
DROP FAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 40 BELOW IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA...COLDER THAN ANY TEMPERATURES SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PROLONGED COLD SNAP AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. MANY AREAS IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
MINUS 40 TODAY. PATCHY ICE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIME NEAR
SETTLEMENTS TODAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT PLACES ALONG THE
WEST COAST.

NORTH SLOPE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN
ARCTIC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH
LOW VISIBILITY CURRENTLY FOR POINT THOMPSON AND BARTER ISLAND.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL. WIND CHILLS 50 TO 55 BELOW EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JK JAN 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 241329
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
429 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...


MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE SURFACE LOW.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS
WELL. VERY COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

EASTERN INTERIOR..SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM FAIRBANKS WEST THIS
MORNING BUT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING STILL IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 226 AS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 12
TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. ONCE THE INTERIOR CLEARS OUT TEMPS WILL
DROP FAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 40 BELOW IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA...COLDER THAN ANY TEMPERATURES SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PROLONGED COLD SNAP AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. MANY AREAS IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
MINUS 40 TODAY. PATCHY ICE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIME NEAR
SETTLEMENTS TODAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT PLACES ALONG THE
WEST COAST.

NORTH SLOPE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN
ARCTIC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH
LOW VISIBILITY CURRENTLY FOR POINT THOMPSON AND BARTER ISLAND.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL. WIND CHILLS 50 TO 55 BELOW EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JK JAN 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 240054
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH DEADHORSE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON
THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHES FROM DEMARCATION POINT SOUTH AND WEST
TO NENANA.

.EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW IS HAS FALLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR ALL DAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE MORE SNOWFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RADAR SHOWS THAT A BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW HAS BEEN SITTING BETWEEN NORTH POLE AND EIELSON AFB ALL DAY.
SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED THAT BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
BETWEEN NORTH POLE AND EIELSON AFB FROM LATE YESTERDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OBSERVED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THAT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY THIS EVENING
WE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE CALLING
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY FROM
NORTH POLE EAST...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES WEST OF NORTH POLE. AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF.
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH 40 BELOW IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA...COLDER THAN
ANY TEMPERATURES SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A PROLONGED COLD SNAP AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME BY
THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK

.WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. MANY AREAS IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
MINUS 40 TODAY. PATCHY ICE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIME NEAR
SETTLEMENTS TODAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT PLACES ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WE EXTENDED THE WINDCHILL ADVISORIES IN ZONES
207...210 AND 213 THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY.

.NORTH SLOPE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW HAS HELPED TO TIGHTEN THE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INCREASING
THE WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY PROBLEMATIC IN ZONE 204
WHERE THE INCREASED WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW HAVE
CREATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. I PUT OUT A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
ZONE 204 THAT IS VALID UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. DECREASING
TEMPERATURES AND IN INCREASING TREND IN WINDS HAVE CREATED WIND
CHILL ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. I PUT OUT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
FOR ZONES 201...202...203...205 AND 206 THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. I
ALSO INCLUDED WINDCHILL LANGUAGE IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR 204.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ222-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

RM JAN 15



000
FXAK69 PAFG 240054
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH DEADHORSE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON
THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHES FROM DEMARCATION POINT SOUTH AND WEST
TO NENANA.

.EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW IS HAS FALLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR ALL DAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE MORE SNOWFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RADAR SHOWS THAT A BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW HAS BEEN SITTING BETWEEN NORTH POLE AND EIELSON AFB ALL DAY.
SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED THAT BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
BETWEEN NORTH POLE AND EIELSON AFB FROM LATE YESTERDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OBSERVED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THAT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY THIS EVENING
WE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE CALLING
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY FROM
NORTH POLE EAST...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES WEST OF NORTH POLE. AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF.
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH 40 BELOW IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA...COLDER THAN
ANY TEMPERATURES SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A PROLONGED COLD SNAP AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME BY
THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK

.WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. MANY AREAS IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
MINUS 40 TODAY. PATCHY ICE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIME NEAR
SETTLEMENTS TODAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT PLACES ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WE EXTENDED THE WINDCHILL ADVISORIES IN ZONES
207...210 AND 213 THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY.

.NORTH SLOPE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW HAS HELPED TO TIGHTEN THE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INCREASING
THE WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY PROBLEMATIC IN ZONE 204
WHERE THE INCREASED WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW HAVE
CREATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. I PUT OUT A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
ZONE 204 THAT IS VALID UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. DECREASING
TEMPERATURES AND IN INCREASING TREND IN WINDS HAVE CREATED WIND
CHILL ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. I PUT OUT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
FOR ZONES 201...202...203...205 AND 206 THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. I
ALSO INCLUDED WINDCHILL LANGUAGE IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR 204.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ222-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

RM JAN 15




000
FXAK67 PAJK 240045
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
YAKUTAT THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
NE INTO THE SE GULF SAT. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM BLEND
FOR TONIGHT...THEN BASICALLY LEFT SAT AS IS FOR THE MOST PART.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP. RIGHT
NOW...STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON SE SIDE OF LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH
SECOND WRAP OF OCCLUDED FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE THRU THIS EVENING. MOST PLACES OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE MAIN PANHANDLE AREA WILL SEE GALES FROM THIS WIND
BAND...WITH POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR A BIT IN CROSS SOUND
THIS EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE
ADJACENT PUBLIC ZONES FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. THE FAR NRN
INNER CHANNEL AREA WILL STAY WINDY THRU THE NIGHT...SO THEIR
GALES/STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL LAST INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF EARLY SAT MORNING OVER THE NRN AREA.
THEN...NEXT LOW MOVING IN WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE SRN AREA
SAT. MORE GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND SRN INNER
CHANNELS BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND WILL ALSO HEADLINE ZONES 27 AND 28
FOR STRONG WINDS. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT WILL HAVE STRONG
JET SUPPORT...180+ KT JET MAXIMA WITH SYSTEM IN LEFT EXIT REGION.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NRN AREAS THIS
EVENING AS SECOND WRAP FRONTAL BAND MOVES THRU. LOOKS LIKE 1/2 TO
1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
EVENING. WILL STILL HAVE SOME RAIN AFTER THE SECOND WRAP MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT IT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. MORE RAIN WILL SPREAD NNE INTO THE SRN AREA SAT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW. THE SRN THIRD OF THE AREA COULD GET LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY THERE.
THINK THE RAIN IN BOTH EVENTS WILL NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS...BUT SOME SMALLER STREAMS WILL RISE TO
NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE HYDRO
IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS.

OTHERWISE...WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD OVER THE AREA THRU SAT. TEMPS
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN AREA. NOT MUCH RISE IS EXPECTED ON SAT EITHER AS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN ON N SIDE OF THE NEXT LOW.

.LONG TERM...985 LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW CHANGED AND IT STRENGTHENED A BIT ON TODAY`S
MODELS...NECESSITATING NEW PRESSURE/WIND FIELDS IN THE GRIDS. THE
LOW WEAKENS ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY SUN AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LARGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD...ALTHOUGH ALL OF
THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AS MOIST POSTFRONTAL CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANY THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAIN SHOULD NOT BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THOUGH. LATE SUNDAY OUR
ONSHORE COMPONENT FINALLY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE WEAKENING LOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PRECIP EVENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENING PERMEATES THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER IN THE MODEL PROGS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO PRESENT A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER EVEN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS A WEAK LOW SKIRTS THE PANHANDLE, CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION...THIS SCENARIO WILL DEPEND ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF ITS PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE SNOW MENTIONED IN THE WET
PORTIONS OF THE FORECASTS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF FROM ABOUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY THE MODELS` JET-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATING ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT IN PLACE OVER
OUR NORTHERN PORTION. THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTH PERSISTS RIGHT
ON THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE WEAK WED SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. BY WED
PM THE EC AND GFS BOTH SHOW GENERAL UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING WITH
THE EC ON THE STRONGER END...THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE COLD AIR
IN AS A FACTOR IN PRECIP TYPE FOR ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE PRESENT AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT (WED) THE GEM MODEL HAS ALREADY RE-
STRENGTHENED WARM LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. BY NEXT FRI
THE EC AND GFS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE RIDGE GIVING WAY TO
SIGNIFICANT GULF TROUGHING AND A TRANSITION BACK TO WARM/WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE.

UTILIZED PRIMARILY NAM/EC/GEM PROGS FOR UPDATES ON DAYS 2-4 AND THEN
MIGRATED TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR DAY 5 ONWARDS, WHICH UTILIZED AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THE SOLUTION DEVELOPS EXTENSIVE SOUTHEASTERLY
GULF SURFACE FLOW AGAIN BY THURS BUT MAINTAINS THE PROXIMITY OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT ON THE NORTH END OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH DAYS
7-8. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIVERGENCE PRESENT BY ABOUT TUES.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ020-021-024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-033-051>053.

&&

$$

RWT/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK68 PAFC 240002
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA IS CAUSING FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...HELPING
THE TROUGH BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS CENTERED OVER COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY (RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH). THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE DIVIDING POINT OF WARM
MOIST AIR AND COLD DRY AIR. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE BAND OF
SNOW THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BEING OBSERVED
ON THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA RIGHT NEAR THE INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SNOW BAND...WITH NOTHING FALLING AS OF MIDDAY FROM THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND MOST OF THE MAT VALLEY.
THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS.

OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW IS TRACKING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR
SHOWS STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF IT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND
WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS THE STRENGTH OF THE ADVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS IS SETTLING INTO PLACE WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND AMOUNT OF
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND GEM-REG IN PARTICULAR ARE SLOWER
TO DEVELOP THE NEGATIVE TILT AND AS A RESULT ARE NOTABLY QUICKER
IN ENDING SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM-GLB SOLUTIONS WHICH
SUPPORT THE IDEA IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
GREATLY AFFECT STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
NEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS IS HANDLED. OTHER THAN THE CHALLENGE
OF SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SITTING OVER COOK INLET WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE...AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN OVERNIGHT IN THE
COOK INLET REGION. EXPECT THIS WILL INCREASE INTENSITY OF
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF SNOW. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO LIGHTEN
OR TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO THE MAT
VALLEY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER
COOK INLET AND THE KENAI PENINSULA ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW TO
REDEVELOP AND PUSH BACK WESTWARD. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS... FROM EAST
ANCHORAGE/HILLSIDE TO EAGLE RIVER TO PALMER.

AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD TO EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
IN EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT FROM THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ONE INCH OR MORE OF
QPF. VALDEZ WILL INITIALLY BE RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS THE
HEAVIER PRECIP FIRST MOVES IN. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE BY SATURDAY EVENING SO STILL EXPECT A DECENT
ACCUMULATION. AS YOU HEAD UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
THOMPSON PASS...PRECIP WILL STAY ALL SNOW SO EXPECT ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL KICK IN. WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS IS PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS IN WHITTIER/PASSAGE CANAL INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...SO WILL TREND STRONGER WITH THESE WINDS IN THE NEW
FORECAST.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM...THOUGH YOU
CAN NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALIZED FOG IN THE COOK INLET
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH THE LACK OF MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BRINING A SLIGHT BUT MINIMAL RELIEF TO THE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
COLD EASTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND BRING SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR WITH
IT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BACK TO
THE ALEUTIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG ALONG THE GULF. A DRIER PATTERN
ENSUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS. OVER THE BERING...A SPLIT PATTERN
ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND A
CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER RIDGE DRIVES A COLDER
AIR MASS SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING WILL MIX WITH WITH RAIN ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AS THESE TO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. THE LOW
ADVECTS THE COLDER AIR THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101 111 121 141 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH



000
FXAK68 PAFC 240002
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA IS CAUSING FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...HELPING
THE TROUGH BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS CENTERED OVER COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY (RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH). THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE DIVIDING POINT OF WARM
MOIST AIR AND COLD DRY AIR. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE BAND OF
SNOW THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BEING OBSERVED
ON THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA RIGHT NEAR THE INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SNOW BAND...WITH NOTHING FALLING AS OF MIDDAY FROM THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND MOST OF THE MAT VALLEY.
THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS.

OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW IS TRACKING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR
SHOWS STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF IT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND
WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS THE STRENGTH OF THE ADVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS IS SETTLING INTO PLACE WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND AMOUNT OF
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND GEM-REG IN PARTICULAR ARE SLOWER
TO DEVELOP THE NEGATIVE TILT AND AS A RESULT ARE NOTABLY QUICKER
IN ENDING SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM-GLB SOLUTIONS WHICH
SUPPORT THE IDEA IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
GREATLY AFFECT STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
NEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS IS HANDLED. OTHER THAN THE CHALLENGE
OF SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SITTING OVER COOK INLET WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE...AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN OVERNIGHT IN THE
COOK INLET REGION. EXPECT THIS WILL INCREASE INTENSITY OF
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF SNOW. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO LIGHTEN
OR TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO THE MAT
VALLEY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER
COOK INLET AND THE KENAI PENINSULA ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW TO
REDEVELOP AND PUSH BACK WESTWARD. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS... FROM EAST
ANCHORAGE/HILLSIDE TO EAGLE RIVER TO PALMER.

AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD TO EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
IN EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT FROM THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ONE INCH OR MORE OF
QPF. VALDEZ WILL INITIALLY BE RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS THE
HEAVIER PRECIP FIRST MOVES IN. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE BY SATURDAY EVENING SO STILL EXPECT A DECENT
ACCUMULATION. AS YOU HEAD UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
THOMPSON PASS...PRECIP WILL STAY ALL SNOW SO EXPECT ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL KICK IN. WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS IS PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS IN WHITTIER/PASSAGE CANAL INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...SO WILL TREND STRONGER WITH THESE WINDS IN THE NEW
FORECAST.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM...THOUGH YOU
CAN NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALIZED FOG IN THE COOK INLET
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH THE LACK OF MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BRINING A SLIGHT BUT MINIMAL RELIEF TO THE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
COLD EASTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND BRING SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR WITH
IT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BACK TO
THE ALEUTIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG ALONG THE GULF. A DRIER PATTERN
ENSUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS. OVER THE BERING...A SPLIT PATTERN
ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND A
CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER RIDGE DRIVES A COLDER
AIR MASS SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING WILL MIX WITH WITH RAIN ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AS THESE TO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. THE LOW
ADVECTS THE COLDER AIR THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101 111 121 141 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH




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